Fantasy Baseball Advice

Went over our NL-Only team already that was also hosted by Scott White of CBS.  To refresh your memory, it was the post that you didn’t read and skipped to the comments to ask questions.  No, not that one.  The other one… Yeah, that one!  If I had my druthers, and if I were using the word druthers correctly, I’d do an NL-Only league instead of an AL-Only league.  You think NL-Only was shallow?  NL-Only makes AL-Only look downright vapid, by comparison.  To give you an idea, the best starter available on waivers right now is Vicente Padilla.  That would be great if Ugly were a category.  The best 3rd baseman available is Jayson Nix.  I’m not sure if his mom, Jayne, would even draft him.  The top five best shortstops had 5 homers combined last year.  Democratically, divvying them up one each.  If you lose a player, you’re basically done.  With that said, I wrote this post right after I drafted the team and now we’re in first place (it’s still early; I know).  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, AL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Jose Molina $3
C – Chris Iannetta $9
1B – Justin Morneau $7
2B – Alexi Casilla $9
3B – Evan Longoria $33
SS – Alexei Ramirez $21
MI – Brendan Ryan $7
CI – Mark Reynolds $19
OF – Nick Swisher $20
OF – Michael Brantley $13
OF – Eric Thames $8
OF – Nick Markakis $19
OF – Yoenis Cespedes $7 (guessing on $ amount, he wasn’t in CBS when we drafted)
U – Alberto Callaspo $4
Bench – Ryan Kalish $0 (free round)
Bench – Jarrod Dyson $0 (free round)
Bench – Jermaine Mitchell $0 (free round)

P – Justin Masterson $13
P – Brad Peacock $4
P – Aaron Crow $3
P – David Robertson $5
P – Jim Johnson $12
P – Ivan Nova  $8
P – Chris Sale $12
P – Jake Peavy $8
P – Brian Fuentes $6
Bench – Kevin Gregg $0 (free round)
Bench – Matt Lindstrom $0 (free round)
Bench – Tyson Ross $0 (free round)
Bench – Dylan Axelford $0 (free round)

ACCORDING TO EVERYONE, OUR PITCHING’S TERRIBLE

By everyone, I mean Rudy and myself too.  Our pitching staff has one ace… If the league only used Cleveland Indian players.  Yeah, not so good.  If Peavy surprises and Sale does what I think he’s capable of, then the staff won’t be the worst in the league.  Maybe only 11th worst.  Our saving grace is our hitting isn’t terrible… Only slightly bad.  (BTW, to give you an idea of how early it is in the season.  We’re in first place because of this pitching staff… HA!)

ACCORDING TO EVERYONE, OUR HITTING IS SLIGHTLY BAD

I don’t mind our outfield.  Though I think it says a lot when Nick Swisher is your most expensive outfielder.  I think, in fact, it says, “What the hell were you doing?”  Our 2nd highest get on the whole team was Alexei Ramirez.  Huh?  That’s egregious with a side of vomit.  We need about ten players to play over their head and then some luck on top of that.

IS THERE ANYTHING TO LIKE ON THIS TEAM?

After a few drafts, we decided to go all in on Oakland A’s raftee, Yoenis Cespedes.  He went for half the price he should because people were worried he wasn’t A) Starting the year in the majors.  B) Worth the hype.  C) There’s no C.  As for A), I knew Beane wouldn’t spend that kind of money to send him to the minors.  Makes no sense.  As for B), there was surprisingly no hype in drafts.  He was falling all over the place.  As for C), well, that’s self-explanatory.

MORNEAU? REALLY, GREY?  I DIDN’T KNOW YOU WERE INTO MASOCHISM?

No, Rudy’s into sado-masochism, because he drafted Morneau.  If you heard our first podcast, you already know this story.  I was on IM with Rudy and I asked him to take the controls for three minutes while I went to pee.  It takes seventeen steps from my office to the bathroom.  I counted.  I don’t draft with pants on, so I didn’t need to unbuckle anything.  I live in my own place so I didn’t need to lift the toilet seat.  I don’t even wash my hands after I pee!  In approximately three and a half minutes, I returned to see Morneau on our team.  Next time, I’m peeing out my office window.

As we mentioned earlier this month, we created an ‘expert’ league that follows the same rules as the Razzball Commenter League and will be included in the master standings.  Will the Expert League reign supreme (Iron Chef^TM) in competitive index or will several RCL leagues put the experts in their place?  We shall see…

Here are the participants in the first annual Razzball ‘Expert’ League (links if they posted a draft review):

Razzball – Grey Albright
Razzball – Rudy Gamble
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens
FanGraphs – Eno Sarris
Hardball Times – Jonathan Halket
MLBTradeRumors.com/RotoAuthority – Tim Dierkes
Mastersball – Ryan Carey
Rotowire – Dalton Del Don
SI.com – Eric Mack
Steamer Projections – Dash Davidson

Here’s a link to the entire Draft Recap:

Grey:

As mentioned in our 2nd podcast, ESPN screwed me for messing with them for the last five years.  Right before my 1st pick, my computer crashed.  Here’s me during the draft.  “Hey, I have the 7th pick.  Awesome.  I’m gonna have a 1st baseman.  I might even get Votto.  I wonder who that lady is watering her lawn across the street.  Maybe I’ll stand up carefully to make sure I don’t knock over my coffee and get a better look–NOOOOOO!  Crap, mother-effin’, son-of-a-motherless-goat!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Okay, it’s rebooting… I have a minute and thirty seconds… Reboot!  DAH!  I drafted Robinson Cano!”  And then that dictated just about all my other hitter picks.  Since I had Cano, I couldn’t grab Kinsler, didn’t want a shortstop and the only 1st baseman or 3rd baseman within the vicinity was Tex and I wasn’t drafting him with my 18th pick.  So I took Giancarlo.  Then I really felt like I needed to make sure I had some sorta corner man so I reached for Zimmerman.  Not feeling totally comfortable with Zimmerman as my 3rd baseman, I reached for Hosmer for my other corner.  Then I felt like if Zimmerman got hurt again, I should have another 3rd baseman, so I grabbed Aramis, then I realized later on that Aramis wasn’t a clean bill of health either so I grabbed Chisenhall.  Then I dropped Chisenhall when he was demoted and grabbed Smoak for the two game Japaning Day, then, when those games ended, I grabbed Eric Thames.

I may have 5 aces when it’s all said and done.  I wouldn’t even need Gio on this staff, but he fell so far down that I wasn’t going to let him go.  I’m not worried about saves, even if my closers are little iffy.  SAGNOF!  Since I had Cano and Hosmer, I took some guys that may be average drains, but should give steals and power.  Though, I do think average will be one of my biggest concerns.  In true Grey fashion (I love to pick up and drop players and talk about myself in third person), I’ve already made a few moves on pitching too.  Dropped Fuentes (right after Balfour became the closer) and grabbed Bourgeois.  Bourgeois is the kinda of guy that if he sneaks into a large playing role or if I switch him in only when he plays, he could get me 30 cheap steals.  SAGNOF!  I dropped Stauffer and grabbed Lidge when Storen was hurting (Clippard was drafted) and dropped Crain for Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a bit of a shizzshow, but, in some ways, I like to be able to juggle my last roster spots so I don’t care I wasted a pick on Chisenhall, Fuentes, etc.  Rudy gets a lot more tied to his drafts than I do.  In the end, I think I still have a solid team.  By the time you read this, I may have made three more pick-ups and drops.

Rudy:

At this point in the draft season, I’m starting to get predictable in my early round draft behavior.  I was really happy picking 10th with the confidence that either Joey Votto or (more likely) Adrian Gonzalez would fall to me and I wouldn’t have to worry about overpaying for a 1B later in the draft.  As luck should have it, Grey’s computer crashed and he auto-picked Robinson Cano vs. his preferred Joey Votto pick who came gift-wrapped to me at #10.   Longoria was an easy choice at #15 as I figured there would still be top SPs on the board by the time I picked next at #34.  The experts were more aggressive than I figured at drafting SPs however as Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lee, F-Her, and Lincecum were all off the board.  Luckily, I liked Greinke slightly more than F-Her and Lincecum.  But I also liked Jay Bruce for this pick and, in retrospect, probably should’ve gamed Greinke was the more likely of the two to make it me at pick #39.  Hunter Pence was the consolation prize.

I spread out my SP selections and seemed to have a lot of success nabbing K-friendly pitchers (Lester, Beachy, Morrow).  I specifically drafted Lewis and Nolasco in later rounds because of their solid WHIPs (which help balance out Morrow).  For the first time in years, I drafted the first closer off the board (Kimbrel – 6th round/63rd pick) as the value was too great given his obscene K-rate.  Marmol and Putz came at decent values at Rounds 11/12 and I was glad to be done with closers before a closer run occurred (10 closers went in the next 33 picks after Putz).

As for offense, I just drafted for value and was able to avoid inadvertently punting AVG or SBs.  I reached for Jose Altuve whom I think has 30 SB upside with solid AVG and, like several of my teams this year, got solid R/RBI value out of my other MI spots (Alexei Ramirez, Neil Walker).

All in all, this was about as good of a draft as I could’ve hoped for.  I don’t think my team has any major weaknesses and hopefully my team has good injury karma.  It’ll be interesting to see how well I do in this type of format (12 team, daily changes) – especially without Grey as co-manager

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

Chris Carpenter has a bulging disc.  I once had a bulging disc.  I had my Low End Theory disc in my car radio and I tried to jam in my Kool Moe Dee CD… *checking my notes*  Oh, Carpenter has a bulging disc in his neck.  Well, he should go see Dr. Frankenstein.  Carpenter says he can’t throw yet, but he’s dealt with this issue before.  Cards are starting to think about a Plan B.  I never liked Plan A.  A 36-year-old who had a 4.47 ERA until the middle of June last year?  You should totally draft him!  He sounds promising!  Carp, or Crap if you’re kinda dyslexic, would move down my rankings with this news, if I didn’t already have him really low in my rankings because I’m always cautious of aging starters who tend to break down.  Also, I’m psychic.  On a related note, you may want to bring in the trash bins on Wednesday night from three to four AM, there’s gonna be possums.   Cust kayin’.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into today’s roundup, we announced our podcast yesterday.  Today, you can subscribe to it at iTunes.  This message was brought to you by Phoenix University, “We don’t look good unless you look good.  Or is it well?”  Anyway, here’s the roundup:

Giancarlo Stanton – It’s sure been a pain changing Mike to Giancarlo on all of my Trapper Keepers.  You know what else is a pain?  Giancarlo’s wrist.  Worst Segue Ever, “Wow, I’ve heard some bad segues before, but that takes the cake.”  Sorry, Worse Segue Ever.  WSE, “Don’t apologize to me, apologize to your readers.”  You know you’re kinda making the segue worse by drawing attention to it.  WSE, “Hence my name.”  Giancarlo was hit on the wrist by a pitch the other day, but X-rays were negative, which is oddly enough a positive.  Giancarlo should take a day or two more to recoup, but should be fine going forward.  If you want to send him flowers, send them to me.  I’m parked outside his condo.  In the bushes.  What, I’m just making sure he’s safe.

Logan Morrison – Having soreness in his knee that was surgically-repaired.  As of right now, it’s nothing to worry about.  Or as Logan Morrison would say on Twitter — #firstworldproblems

Brian Fuentes – The battle for the A’s closer and the 22 saves that comes with the gig is heating up.  Jerry “The Beav” Blevins is the only possible left-hander behind Fuentes.  So there’s some speculation that if The Beav gets cut, then Fuentes may stay in setup.  But if The Beav gets into the bullpen that will make it easier to hand the closer job to Fuentes.  May I say from owning Fuentes in past years, nothing is easy about Fuentes closing.  Worst Segue Ever, “Okay, that’s just another–”  You know, that’s enough, WSE.  WSE, “Hey, do what you have to do.”  Here’s what I’ll say on the closing shituation in Oakland, I think Balfour will make a better closer (marginally), but Fuentes will get the job.  Either way, in almost all leagues (except very shallow ones), I’d draft both guys and hope the one I drafted comes out with the job.

Yoenis Cespedes – Homered in his first spring game.  I now have Yoenis in two leagues, and I’m getting him in more leagues if he continues to fall far down in drafts.  I have Yoenis’s projections down for 65/20/80/.250/12.  That’s a not-that-poor-man’s Adam Jones.  I’d take that way before the 200th or so place ESPN and Yahoo have him ranked.  Frequent commenter, chata, made a good call when he said Yoenis looked like Gary Sheffield when he homered.  Somewhere, Sheffield is angrily wagging his trademark infringement lawsuit papers.

Jim Johnson – Buck Showalter said he hasn’t named Johnson the closer yet.  Kevin Gregg’s family said, “Please, we can’t handle anymore death threats.”  Matt Lindstrom is also in the O’s possible closerousel.  I think Johnson ends up winning the job, but in the mean’s while I would draft all three in deep leagues, or places you need saves.

Alfonso Soriano – Hit his 4th homer of the spring.  I have a mantra:  Don’t Believe Spring Training Stats — DBSTS, for those that like to acronymize shizz. But, and this is a small but like what Leyland throws away every seven to ten minutes, vets tend to have good beginnings to their season then tire.  Soriano’s April stats last year:  10 homers.

Eric Hosmer – Left Monday’s game after landing awkwardly on his shoulder.  Doctors said he was F-I-N-E, then they did the Bell Biv Devoe dance where you kick heels with the guy across from you.

Mike Moustakas – Left the game after being hit with a pitch in his right knee.  Royals are saying it’s simply a bruise and he’ll be good to go.  David Glass, Royals owner and former CEO of Wal-Mart, said he would not pay for any time missed.

Zack Cozart – He’s showing no signs of his injury from last year.  Have I mentioned I want Cozart in every league?  Oh, well, consider this yet another notice.  You’ve been noticed!

Jesus Montero – I want to throw a warning out there that there will be a lot of Jesus Montero updates this year.  We’ve already drafted him in three out of four leagues.  Bee tee dubya, he’s hitting .389.  But spring stats mean nothing.  But II, The Return of But:  He’s hitting .389!

David Wright – Received an anti-inflammatory injection yesterday for discomfort that I think he’s been feeling for the last three years.  I’m only half joking.  I don’t want to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but I’m starting to get worried.  The Mets doctors’ track record with getting players back on the field is about the same as yours with that girl who used to live next door to you.

Kendrys Morales – He ran the bases for two straight days.  Talk about going back to the base-ics!  Sorry, I’ll never say that again.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper is hinting at retirement.  His retirement plans include him reuniting with his oblique that abandoned him back in 2004.

David Robertson – Fell down some stairs the other day, but he played catch yesterday and he’s good to go.  He can remove his walking boot.  On a related note, Miguel Cabrera’s nickname in the field is The Walking Boot.

Fausto Carmona – Charges against him for lying about his name have been dropped.  Charges against him for being a terrible pitcher are still undergoing investigation.

Since our last Closer Look, we’ve had some comings and goings.  One coming was Pestano, who last year said Eataly should give out free pizza toppings if you’re wearing Crocs.  With Chris Perez going down for 4 to 6 weeks with the ever-mysterious oblique injury, Pestano should see some saves into the beginning of the year.  Double negatives aside, I wouldn’t not draft Perez.  He should resume the closer job once he returns because the Indians are committed to him, in the same way Courtney Love should be committed.  Another coming was Brett Myers, who will take over the Astros closing job.  If you grab Myers at a draft, you’re gonna get beat up.  Not speaking metaphorically.  If you draft Myers, you should be fine for 25ish saves.  Another bit of closer news pertains to Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour.  The A’s are saying Fuentes and Balfour are both up for the closer job.  Balfour is the better option, but clubs don’t always go with the best option.  (Actually, the best option would be Faustino De Los Santos, but he’s not going to be the closer right out of the gate.)  I’d draft Fuentes and Balfour (and FDLS in very deep leagues, an acronym that sounds like a dyslexic branch of Latter-Day Saints).  Finally, Javy Guerra was announced the closer to start the season by Don Mattingly, who lost all common sense once he shaved his mustache, which is not a coincidence.  Guerra could be the closer for the whole season while having one of the best middle men behind him, kind of how Marmol used to work that role.  Or Guerra could blow three saves in April and Jansen will be the closer by April 20th.  I think there’s a 50/50 chance either scenario happens.  I’d draft both.  If Jansen goes to the bullpen, maybe the free time will allow Kenley an opportunity to think about designing with something other than polka dots and prove she deserved to be a Project Runway All-Star (hey, four girl readers, who loves you?).  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
4. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
5. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
7. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla)
8. J.J. Putz (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
9. Heath Bell (Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo, Mike Dunn)
10. Carlos Marmol (Kerry Wood, Jeff Samardzija)
11. Joakim Soria (Jonathon Broxton, Greg Holland)
12. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek)
13. Ryan Madson (Sean Marshall, Nick Masset)
14. Jason Motte (+1) (Eduardo Sanchez)
15. Huston Street (+1) (Luke Gregerson)
16. Andrew Bailey (+1) (Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks)
17. Sergio Santos (+1) (Francisco Cordero)
18. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, LaTroy Hawkins)
19. Kyle Farnsworth (+1) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Javy Guerra (-6) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
22. Rafael Betancourt (Rex Brothers)
23. Matt Thornton (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed)
24. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
25. Brandon League (Shawn Kelley, Hong-Chih Kuo)
26. Jim Johnson (+1)(Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Brett Myers (+3) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett)
29. Grant Balfour/Brian Fuentes (Joey Devine, Faustino De Los Santos)
30. Vinnie Pestano (-4) (Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, Chief Wahoo)