Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day we looked at the top free agent hitters in 2008 and now we go over some of the top free agent pitchers for 2008. Similarly to the other day, these are not all of the free agent pitchers. So there’s no reason to write in about how we forgot Josh Fogg. He was remembered then forgotten; there’s a difference. These free agent pitchers could potentially see their fantasy value take a hit or surge with a team move.  A list of all the free agents is here. Anyway, here’s some top free agents for 2008, the pitchers’ edition:

CC Sabathia - Sabathia almost didn’t make this list. Not because he’s not a free agent. He is, a top one at that. I just don’t see his value changing a whole lot with a new team. If he goes to the Yankees, he’ll be facing tougher hitters than the NL Central — pho sho! He’ll still be dominant and he’ll still be coming off a season when he was overworked.

Ben Sheets - Here’s another guy that I don’t think gets that affected by free agency as long as he stays healthy– Just as I was typing that, a butterfly in the Republic of Djibouti flapped its wings and Ben Sheets pulled an abdominal muscle.

Brian Fuentes - Fuentes needs to land with a team that needs a closer for him to retain his value. Otherwise, his value will be this.

Francisco Rodriguez - Wherever he lands, he’ll get at least 70 saves next year. (<–sarcasm) He might benefit a bit by the move to the NL (since he’s almost definitely going to the Mets), but he’s still never going to see a saves season like he just did.

Oliver Perez - All indications are that Perez will vacate Queens. I could see Perez hurt by a move. A new team will have to figure out what makes Oliver Perez work then try to duplicate it from start to start. Good. Luck.

A.J. Burnett - The number one crazy hot chick in baseball. One day, a shutout and 12 Ks. Next day, pretending to be pregnant so you won’t go out with the fellas. Burnett’s a fantasy ulcer waiting to happen.

With the top 20 closers, I have now recapped yo’ ass on top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen, top 20 outfielders for 2008,the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, top 20 starters and the top 40 starters. I ranked twenty closers back in January of 2008, then I updated that list about four times before the season started. My point, closers are constantly changing and, if you’ve read Razzball at all, you know I’m one of the biggest save vultures around. I rarely pay for saves. That’s not to say I don’t end up with decent closers. I had Lidge, Soria and Valverde on some teams. They all had great closer seasons, but they weren’t top ranked closers coming into the season. Closers are saves. SAGNOF. Period. That’s it. Once you wrap your head around the fact that Joe Nathan and Salomon Torres are the same player, the better off you’ll be. Rudy and I disagree on this point. Whatever. We agree on plenty other things, including his fantasy baseball player rater. (Instructions on use of the player rater.) Anyway, here’s the top 20 Closers for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Mariano Rivera - I said 40 saves and he got 39. Now bow! Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/2.75/1.10/70, 40 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-5/1.40/.67/77, 39 Saves

2. Francisco Rodriguez - I said he’d get 45 saves and he got 62. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  6-2/3.00/1.25/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.24/1.29/77, 62 Save

3. Joakim Soria - Just because I didn’t rank him doesn’t mean he wasn’t on any of my teams or that I didn’t like him. I just saw no reason to rank him in the top twenty back in January of 2008. In March, when I did one of my closer posts, I did move him into the top 20. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-3/1.60/.86/66, 42 Saves

4. Jonathan Papelbon - If I were the type to grab a top closer, and I’m not, I would take Papelbon. Not for his dancing. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  5-0/1.10/.75/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/2.34/.95/77, 41 Saves

5. Joe Nathan - Lots consider this dooode the number one closer. I could see that. I’ve only had him on one team ever, when he was a middle reliever on the Giants. I’ll probably have him on another team in a couple of years when the shine is off of him. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  6-1/1.90/1.00/80, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  1-2/1.33/.90/74, 39 Saves

6. Jose Valverde - I didn’t trust him much coming into the year, but many didn’t so I still ended up with him and he proved to be fine. I won’t trust him much going into 2009 either, but at certain prices he’s a buy. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/4.00/1.25/65, 30 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.38/1.18/83, 44 Saves

7. Brad Lidge - I liked him coming into the year as a solid bounce back candidate. (Notice how I said bounce back and not Comeback. WTF? How does he win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Kerry Wood? Yeah, I can see that. Cantu? That makes sense. Lidge? In 2007, he had a 3.36 ERA. Do the reporters who vote for this shizz even bother to look at stats? Let me guess, Lidge blew a save in the postseason in 2005 so he’s the Comeback Player this year. Moving on before I stick my head in the oven.) Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  3-3/3.25/1.20/90, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-0/1.95/1.23/92, 41 Saves

8. Kerry Wood - I couldn’t have been any more down on Wood coming into the season, but I still had him on three different teams. Am I not practicing what I’m preaching? Nah, fool. A) Wood’s stock was way down according to everyone so I got him at a discounted rate. B) There is no B, don’t you hate that? (Note: Back in January of 2008, I ranked the “Cubs Closer” 20th and my preseason predictions were Nice stats/Boatload of saves.) Final Numbers:  5-4/3.26/1.09/84, 34 Saves

9. Brian Fuentes - With closers you have to know your strengths, my strength is I grab fill-in closers before most people. This helps when you don’t draft any “good” ones. With that said, I had Fuentes on almost all of my teams. (Note: I predicted this for Corpas, 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.) Corpas Ranked #18, Final Numbers:  1-5/2.73/1.10/82, 30 Saves

10. Francisco Cordero - His WHIP says he got a bit lucky. 78 Ks says he was doing something right. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  2-5/3.50/1.20/65, 35 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/3.33/1.41/78, 34 Saves

11. Kevin Gregg - Here’s one closer I actually steered clear of because of his walks in 2007. He ended up being fine this year, but he wouldn’t be this high if it wasn’t for some vulture wins. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-8/3.41/1.28/58, 29 Saves

12. Bobby Jenks - Not a big fan of Jenks so I didn’t have him on any teams. As they taught me to say in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, his lack of strikeouts are a concern. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/3.00/1.00/65, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  3-1/3.63/1.10/38, 30 Saves

13. Carlos Marmol - This hombre’s gonna be great. ¿Ya que si es verdad? I ain’t no Mentirosa. Final Numbers:  2-4/2.68/0.93/114, 7 Saves

14. Billy Wagner - I warned you four months before the season that Wagner’s end was near. And that’s me paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  2-3/3.75/1.35/70, 25 Saves, Final Numbers:  0-1/2.30/0.89/52, 27 Saves

15. B.J. Ryan - He went unranked in January because he hadn’t even thrown from 40 feet yet. Get over yourself. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-4/2.95/1.28/58, 32 Saves

16. Salomon Torres - I will simply point out that I didn’t rank Gagne either. Put that in your sucky pipe and smoke it. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/3.49/1.35/51, 28 saves

17. Brian Wilson - Wilson ended up notching way more saves than I thought he would and he was also way more erratic in his ratios. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/2.50/1.05/65, 20 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/4.62/1.44/67, 41 saves

18. Trevor Hoffman - My grandpappy told me about this time that Trevor Hoffman struckout “Castor Oil” Boyd to win the Governor’s Trophy and single-handedly stop The Crimean War. Our grandparents sure knew who to close games. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  3-2/3.50/1.15/40, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.77/1.04/46, 30 saves

19. Grant Balfour - Good for Balfour for ranking this high and but let’s not forget all of the other middle relievers who forfeited their spot so Balfour could have some glamour — Shields, Wheeler, Dotel, Okajima, Qualls and “Waking” Joey Devine. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-2/1.54/.89/82, 4 Saves

20. J.P. Howell - If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son make the top 20 closer list. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.22/1.13/92, 3 Saves

Reports say Mark Kotsay is headed to the Sawx. If he lands there, he’ll start over Coco Crisp and will have some slight fantasy value. Think AL-Only leagues. More importantly, this would free up the Braves outfield for Brandon Jones to start then Jordan Schafer, the (HGH-aided) five-tooler, to get the call come September 1st.  Jordan Schafer is the most interesting name here, which isn’t that hard when you’re surrounded by schmohawks. Schafer was the top 13-year-old in the country according to Baseball America and Teen Beat. He could be patrolling centerfield for the Braves on a regular basis as soon as ‘09 and, if so, he will be an early Rookie of the Year candidate, so those in keeper leagues should make sure he’s on their team. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brian Fuentes - On bereavement leave, will be gone for up to 7 days. If you’re desperate for saves, grab Corpas and pray Fuentes’s bereaved gets better, but hope it’s touch and go for a week. Also, the Rockies are still trying to move Fuentes, so it’s not a bad idea to grab Corpas anyway.

Jimmy Rollins - 3 steals, HR and 8-for-10 in the last two games. About time.

Brandon Morrow - Set to make season debut as a starter on September 5th vs. the Yankees. In almost 13 innings in Tacoma, he’s struckout 18 and carries a decent WHIP, but he’s given up 7 runs. I’m going to let him stretch himself out on someone else’s team.

Jorge De La Rosa - 6 IP, 2 ER. In a few deeper leagues, I spotted him in for this start and I will for his next start when he gets the Giants again.

Vladimir Guerrero - Was announced he’d be sitting out some games to recharge. Presumably for the Angels playoff games, or maybe Vlad’s signed on to Dancing With The Stars. Fingers crossed!

Dioner Navarro - Left the game with leg cramps. Aw, must be that time of the month.

Wandy Rodriguez - Almost two weeks ago, I told you to pickup Wandy with absolutely no reason given. You want a reason? Yesterday’s line, 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 10 Ks. That’s magic, Wandy!

Zach Greinke - 6 IP, 5 Ks, 0 ER. I dropped him about month or so ago so I guess I was Greinke’d by this start. Then again, prior to last night’s start he had over a 5.00 ERA since the All-Star break. Then Again, Part 2:  He has been solid for the last three starts. Then Again, The Reckoning:  His innings are high for the year and the Royals provide little opportunity for wins. Let’s just say, I’m not picking him back up.

Carlos Zambrano - 4.1 IP, 6 ER to outfunk Ian Snell.

Luis Ayala - Blown save yesterday. Wasn’t fully his fault and he could bounce back to get the next five saves or Manuel might look elsewhere. The Mets bullpen aka “As The Turd Turns…”

Jair Jurrjens - 3 IP, 6 ER. Mesa tinks yousa drop me. I agree, Jar-Jar.

Cody Ross - 3-for-5 with a HR. When this sumbitch gets hot, he gets real hot. You’ve been served (with info)!

Bronson Arroyo - CG, 5 hits, 1 ER. If you had him in your lineup, you got balls. If you think you should hold him, you’re nuts.

Geovany Soto - 3-for-5, HR and 7 RBIs. Making a case for the first catcher off the board next year. I won’t be taking him, but someone will.

Cliff Lee - 19th win as he heads towards the Cy Young. Will be real interesting to see where he’s drafted next year. Again, won’t be by me. The Indians fan, who just woke up from a season long slumber, is met by a 30/30 Sizemore and the eventual Cy Young, Cliff Lee. So we’re winning the division? Wild Card? You’ve been Pronk’d!

Ben Francisco - 2 HRs yesterday. Instant replay showed he actually grabbed the pitches and threw both balls over the fence.

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, Justin Speier)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Jose Veras, Damaso Marte)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton, David Weathers)
9. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
10. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
11. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
12. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
14. George Sherrill, BAL (Fernando Cabrera/Jamie Walker/Jim Johnson)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
17. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton)
18. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and C.J. Wilson– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Kinsler in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood, CHI (Bob Howry, Jeff Samardzija)
20. Billy Wagner, NYM (Eddie Kunz, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez)
21. Huston Street, OAK (Santiago Casilla, Brad Ziegler, Alan Embree, Joey Devine)
22. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Al Reyes)
23. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman)
24. Brandon Morrow/J.J. Putz, SEA (Sean Green)
25. Fernando Rodney, DET (Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya)
26. Masa Kobayashi/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
27. Chris Perez, STL (Kyle McClellan, Ryan Franklin)
28. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera)
29. C.J. Wilson/Eddie Guardado, TEX (Joaquin Benoit)
30. Tyler Yates/John Grabow/Denny Bautista/Corky Thatcher, PIT

Hey boys and girls, it’s time to look at all of the fantasy baseball closers again. Now is this every closer? Yes, I just said that. Dur. Why aren’t you listening? Or am I being obtuse? Also this is the majority of setup men. Is this all the setup men? Ugh. It’s a majority of the setup men. You’re what we Italians call a stunod. Now don’t get all heated. My grandfather called me a stunod for twenty years of my life. Now I write a blog. Hmm… I need therapy! So we’re going to break the closers up into three tiers as we always do. The first tier, they’re the girls that won’t date your stunod ass. The second tier, they’re the girls that will date your stunod ass. The third tier, they’re the girls that keep calling your house trying to talk to your wife about the affair you had with them while you were in Buffalo for the weekend. If that’s not clear, wait until your tenth year of alimony and you begin to contemplate how much you would’ve saved just by having some crackhead kill your ex. Anyway, here’s all the closers and most of their setup men for fantasy baseball purposes, of course:

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of closers that are too good to be true. They seem indispensable, but they’re not. They just have an allure over you that scares you to trade them away. Set them free and if it’s meant to be… Or some shizz. I don’t know, why don’t you read the Hallmark blog if you want girly nursery rhymes? These closers are as safe as closers get, so trade them away.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Kyle Farnsworth)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson)
6. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
7. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)
8. Kerry Wood, CHI (Carlos Marmol)

BRAINERS

Greed, Gluttony and Envy are three of the seven deadly sins. Then throw in coveting your neighbor’s closers and masturbating three times a day and fantasy baseball is going to send you straight to hell, unless you focus your energies on these closers, the Brainers. These closers seem risky, but end up paying dividends.

9. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
10. Billy Wagner, NYM (Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman)
11. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton, David Weathers)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
14. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman, Rafael Soriano)
15. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
16. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)
17. Damaso Marte, PIT (Tyler Yates)
18. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
20. Todd Jones, DET (Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney)

BRAIN FREEZE

Saves are wonderful. I love saves! I have Fuentes, Morrow, Kobayashi, Wilson and Franklin on one team! They just combined for two-thirds of an inning and 17 earned runs. OW! Brain freeze! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. Huston Street, OAK (Santiago Casilla, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Joey Devine)
22. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
23. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
24. Brian Fuentes, COL (Taylor Buchholz, Manny Corpas)
25. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
26. Brandon Morrow, SEA (Sean Green)
27. Ryan Franklin, STL (Jason Isringhausen, Chris Perez)
28. Masa Kobayashi, CLE (Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
29. Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, TAM (Al Reyes, Troy Percival)
30. Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton, CHW (Bobby Jenks)