Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball, we’ve finished our recap of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is our final look back.  This is still a look back.  It is not how I’d rank them for 2010 aka next year.  As with the other rankings, the final rankings come from ESPN’s Player Rater.  I did this so I could objectively critique MY preseason rankings to THEIR end season ones.  Their rankings for closers weigh wins and Ks very heavily, but whatevs.  At least it’s unbiased.  There’s a theme in the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball we need to address.  There’s more unranked players in this post than any of the previous ones.  With 8 of 20 closers being unranked.  This is why you never pay for closers.  They’re unpredictable.  The ones that you think will do good disappoint (K-Rod) or flat-out suck (Lidge).  Then there’s the ones that just come out of nowhere.  It all comes back to SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Joe Nathan – Has an unprecedented streak of 24 consecutive months being a $12 salad.  As soon as he gives me his address, I’ll send him the green, leafy ribbon.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

2. Jonathan Broxton – Didn’t lead the league in saves, wasn’t that dominant with ERA, but 114 Ks for a reliever will get them ranked pretty high.  Throw in 7 vulture wins and you have the number two ranked closer.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  7-2/2.61/.96/114, 36 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – Some year he will not live up to his standard.  When that year will be is anyone’s guess. Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.76/.90/72, 44 saves

4. Andrew Bailey – If you take the best middle reliever year and throw in 26 saves, you have Bailey.  Definitely one of those guys that you were probably waiting for the bottom to fall out at any moment and it never happened.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-3/1.84/.88/91, 26 saves

5. Heath Bell – I owned Bell in quite a few leagues since people seem to shun guys who had never closed before even though pitchers have shown over and over again closer experience usually means little.  Had his best save and worst ERA month in September with 9 saves and a 5.14 ERA.  Preseason Rank #16 2009 Projections:  4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-4/2.71/1.12/79, 42 saves

6. Brian Wilson – Because I’m on the West Coast, I always find myself watching the tail end of Giants games.  What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves, Final Numbers:  5-6/2.74/1.20/83, 38 saves

7. Trevor Hoffman – Old is as old continues to do.  Next year, he’ll be entering to the Hells Belles Comedy Cabaret album. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

8. David Aardsma – Bailey’s probably the epitome of SAGNOF, so what’s right under epitome?  Example of?  Embodiment?  “Eh, same thing?”  That was Aardsma.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-6/2.52/1.16/80, 38 saves

9. Huston Street – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated… If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.”  Yup.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves, Final Numbers:  4-1/3.06/.91/70, 35 saves

10. Jonathan Papelbon – Here’s a place their Player Rater fails big time.  Papelbon is this low because he recorded only one vulture win.  It’s nice, but you can’t really rely on closers to get vulture wins.  The rest of his numbers are fine for a closer.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.85/1.15/76, 38 saves

11. Ryan Franklin – I’m pretty sure La Russa and Duncan could make Brendan Ryan a serviceable closer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/1.92/1.20/44, 38 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – By taking the last letters of his first name and the first letters of his last name, he has one of my favorite nicknames, CoCo.  Who’s some other players this would work with?  Ben Zobrist with EnZo…  Zobrist sounds Jewish and he gets an Italian nickname?  What’s he, a pizza bagel?  Doesn’t work.  How about Ryan Howard?  AnHo?  Eh..  Wait, I got one!  Miguel Montero.  Now we just need Daron Sutton to say something like, “The Count’s in Elmo’s favor…”  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  2-6/2.16/1.32/58, 39 saves

13. Rafael Soriano – See what I said regarding Bailey.  Go ahead, scan your eyes up a little.  There ya go!  Soriano did basically the same thing.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-6/2.97/1.06/102, 27 saves

14. Joakim Soria – Soria dealt with some injury issues this year and still put together a good season.  Soria blamed the WBC; I blamed Selig.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/2.21/1.13/69, 30 saves

15. Brian Fuentes – Knock on the door.  *opening door*  A red flag stands there.  What’s up, red flag? Fuentes had more saves than Ks.  Red Flag out.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  1-5/3.93/1.40/46, 48 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – Wasn’t a great season, but you were foolish if you thought he was going to save another 62 games.  Actually, wasn’t as bad when you consider he gave up 5 runs in his next to last appearance.  Right before that, he had a 3.09 ERA.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.71/1.31/73, 35 saves

17. Jose Valverde – Hopefully you were able to grab LaTroy Hawkins when he filled in for Valverde, so your JoTroy Valkins got you 36 saves.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.33/1.13/56, 25 saves

18. George Sherrill – From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.70/1.12/61, 21 saves

19. Michael Wuertz – Wuertz comes in as our first and last true middle reliever to make the top 20 closer list.  If you owned, say, James Shields (11-12/4.14/1.32/167) and Wuertz the entire season, your combined numbers would’ve been 17-13/3.74/1.23/269; that looks like vintage Nolan Ryan.  In other words, you could’ve done *pinkie to mouth* Wuertz.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.63/.95/102, 4 saves

20. J.P. Howell – Whatever Beane is feeding his bullpen up in Oakland, Tampa could use some of it as Howell was a whole lot better before he started closing.  Thurston and Lovey expected more.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/2.84/1.20/79, 17 saves

Freddy Sanchez limped off the field with a knee injury.  Presumably, the same knee he’s been nursing since his days with Pittsburgh.  Without his services, the Giants probably would have still finished in third, but a game or two further out, so no regrets losing Alderson.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Barry Zito – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners.  Baked Zito.

Ted Lilly – Scratched from his next start because of shoulder soreness.  Stop scratching him, and start fixing him!  You hold your breath waiting for him to return this year and you’re going to turn (Cubbie) blue.

Jose Reyes – Took batting practice yesterday.  Says he still wants to return.  Probably wants to check out the new Mets stadium.

Chase Headley – 5-for-6, HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, I’m gonna say this was his best game ever.  This might be his best week.  Even if he doesn’t play another game.  If you grabbed him for the short schedule day yesterday, you’re a genius.  They should bronze your brain.  I don’t know who they is, but you probably do, Brain Who Should Be Bronzed-ee.

Wade LeBlanc – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  This was, “The One Where He Pitches vs. the Pirates.”

Garrett Jones – Hit his 20th homer last night in his 269th AB.  He only has 38 Runs and 40 RBIs.  Yay, Pirates!

Heath Bell – Blew the save.  Unfortunately, Luke Gregerson wasn’t much better.

Matt Wieters – Didn’t do much yesterday, but he’s now batting third and he’s hitting around .450 in the last week.

Derek Lowe – 5 IP, 3 ER.  Blister problem might’ve caused his early exit, or maybe with the way he pitched vs. the Mets this year he just wanted out while the gettin’ was good.

Martin Prado – 3-for-4 and batting around .450 for the last week as Kelly Johnson was seen picking dirt out of his cleats.

Mike Cameron – 2 HRs yesterday to get to 21.  Someone, somewhere in March of next year is going to look at his final numbers and think, “Hey, maybe I should take Mike Cameron with my last outfield spot.”  You, hopefully, will mock them.

Derrek Lee – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and a HR yesterday.  Beggars shouldn’t, uh, ya know, choose, but if only Lee would’ve also stole ten bases… Or five… Or one.   With his leg span, it’s like a five foot lead and seven steps away from the next base.

Tom Gorzelanny – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He gets the Ain’ts next, but I’d stay away if your ratios are at all in danger or if you have a pacemaker.

Mark DeRosa – 2 HRs yesterday.  After only hitting one homer in August, these were his first homers in September.  Hits homers in bunches (and pairs, obviously).  Might have another two or three homers left in his bat for the remainder of the year.

Daniel Hudson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  You know that guy you see when you search for Tim Hudson on the waiver wire?  Here he is!  Great news, he has more than a K/IP in the minors.  Bad news, his control is iffy at times.  Just okay news, he’s worth a pick up in AL-Only or very deep keeper leagues because he should have the opportunity to impress next year.

Brian Fuentes – Got the save yesterday.  Scioscia might just be messing with you with the Jepsen thing, but Fuentes did kinda face lefties (Swisher, who’s weaker vs. lefties, Posada, who he walked, and Cano, who is a lefty).

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Still not really a guy I’d take a chance on in the final two weeks.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets the peasant Royals next time out, but he hasn’t been great against them this year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 6 ER.  It was almost like Fausto Carmona was ghost riding the Wandwagon last night.  Still, he has a sub-3 ERA on the year.  You don’t get mad at the Wandwagon.  He took you places and showed you things you never thought you’d see this year.

I’d like to dedicate this opening paragraph to one of our 2008 faves Mark ‘Mini-Donkey’ Reynolds as he reached 200 Ks and is poised to shatter the previous record of 205 Ks set by the very same Mark Reynolds last year.  (Luckily, he’s also shattering his record for Runs, HRs, RBIs, and SBs too.)  We are tempted to call up MLB to ask how much it would cost to sponsor a Razzball Windmill of the Year Award.  It’s got to be hard to fail that much and still have the overall success that Reynolds is having this year.  It’s like that guy in the bar who comes onto 10 girls out of his league and then scores with the 11th.  You have to be impressed with his triumph but the 10 failures are, in their own way, more impressive.  Anyway, kudos to the Grand Diamondhack and onto the rest of what’s going on…

Derek Lowe - D-Lowe forfeited a favorable start tonight when he left after two innings (and 3 ER) with a blister on his ring finger.  Luckily the blister isn’t on his little finger or his thumb or he’d really be in dire straits.

Gavin Floyd – He saw D-Lowe’s 2 inning start and saw him one inning better before leaving with a bad hip.  A 4th inning might’ve qualified him for a Win…..if you used the Joba Rules.  Decent chance he’s toast for the season so don’t waver to waiver.

Hideki Matsui - Hit his 25th HR of the season as part of a Yankee win.  I would’ve thought Matsui would’ve needed to move back to one of those glorified Little League stadiums they have in Japan to ever clear 25 HR again.  Luckily the Yanks built one instead.

Ian Stewart - Returned after missing most of the last week with a bad back to hit a 2-run HR.  He’s now 7-for-30 in September with 5 HRs and 14 Ks.  He’d be a 50 HR threat if they ever triple the size of the ball or the bat barrel.

Jonny Gomes - Hit his 20th HR of the season in 254 ABs.  Incidentally, that’s 2 more than Jay Bruce, 18 more than Chris Dickerson, and 19 more than Willy Taveras.   Hitters moving from the AL to the NL must feel like that kid whose birthday fell a day after the Little League cutoff and got to play an extra year.

Francisco Rodriguez & Brian Fuentes – The former and current Angel closers continue to bedevil fantasy owners with blown saves last night – adding to their already 5.00+ ERAs in the second half.  Like a bunch of Latin Lidges.  If they are still available in your league, lock in their backups – Kevin Jepsen for the Angels and…um…uh…never mind on the Mets.

Franklin Morales – Closing the circle of blown saves, the interim closer of Fuentes’ former employer gave up 3 ER in the final inning of a 4-0 game.  Kazaam!

Roy Oswalt – Being shut down for the season due to lingering back issues.  Half price sale on Astros.com for “Roy & Wandy then starve our chances of winning like Ghandi” T-Shirts!

Braden Looper - Improved his record to 13-6 for the Brew Crew despite a near 5.00 ERA.  Manny Parra is 10-10 with a 6.42 ERA.  Parra is obviously just about 1 1/2 earned runs per game from being a dominant pitcher.

Bartolo Colon – Cleansed from the ChiSox roster today.  If I was Vince McMahon, I’d sign him and Sidney Ponson as a tag team christened as the Piñatas.

Justin Morneau has a stress fracture in his lower back.  Joe Mauer missed a month of the season with back pains.  I understand the Twins are a small market team with fiduciary concerns, but it might be a good investment to provide firmer mattresses for the team.  Punto can continue to sleep on the couch, if you like.  Morneau will be out for the season.  In non-keepers, you can drop him.  Cuddyer will start at 1st; he hit a homer yesterday.  Since Morneau was hitting .201 Post-All-Star Break, this isn’t the worst news for you.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brian Fuentes -  If he were on the Phillies, he’d be hailed as having one of the greatest seasons a closer has ever had.  But when you’re the closer for The Town that Bobby Grich Built, you need to save at least 60 games with a 2 ERA.  41 saves and a 4 ERA just ain’t going to cut it.  Scioscia’s a tinkerer — Howie Kendrick’s hot…  Okay, we’re going to start Maicer Izturis! — So the latest is that Fuentes could lose saves to Kevin Jepsen.  I don’t think Jepsen will collect more than a few, but if you’re in a tight race for saves, you may want to grab him.

Reid Brignac – 4-for-4, HR and 3 RBIs yesterday with his first start in a week.  It would be wise for the Rays to give Brignac at-bats.  Though teams aren’t always wise.

Matt Wieters - 1-for-3, batting .265 on the year with 5 homers.  February Grey emailed me this, “I’m preparing Wieters to Posey comparisons.”

Adam Lind – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  In the preseason top 80 outfielders post, I said, “Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I also harped on him in April telling everyone to grab him.  Next year, there will be comparisons of Wieters for 2010 to Lind in 2009.  Trust me, when a big time prospect fails, I’m all over them.  Ask the People Against the Fantasy Ownership of Alex Gordon.

Jason Frasor – 1 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  Well, that’s one way to get Downs put back in the closer role.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Has a near 2 ERA in the 2nd half of the year.  Yup.

Jay Bruce – Returns from the DL.  I’m going to say Jay Bruce is the best outfielder in the history of the world.  And I’d be lying.  Jay Bruce is perhaps the most underperforming outfielder in the history of 2009.  That’s closer to the truth.  Jay Bruce can not help you whatsoever.  That’s lying again.  Jay Bruce might be able to give some slight value in deep leagues.  Yes, that sounds about right.

Brandon Phillips – HR yesterday.  Now has three straight 20/20 seasons.  Cust kayin’.

Brett Tomko – 9 IP, 0 ER.  Whatever Tomko’s stats are smoking it’s probably not legal.

Cliff Pennington – 2-for-4, and hitting near .450 in the last week.  Plus, his name sounds like he wears plaid trousers.

Ryan Dempster – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Has given up 4 earned runs in every other start for almost a month now.  If I were a betting man, I might say 6 IP, 4 ER vs. the Cards for his next start.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5, one steal.  He hit a huge dip over the weekend, going 1-for-11, but hopefully that was just a matter of playing in Petco.  No one wants to provide offense in Petco, it’s just the way it is.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  I’m still undecided, but I might draft Lincecum in the first round next year just to see how it feels to own him.

Ricky Nolasco – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’s nice and all to have a solid K to walk ratio, but walk someone if it’s going to help you avoid giving up 7 earned runs!

Clayton Kershaw – Out at least 10 more days.  He originally hurt himself shagging flies.  Last person to hurt themselves like that was Jenna Jameson.

It’s good to be past the trading deadline.  The closers that kept their job feel woobie-safe.  Pull down the Murphy bed, Qualls is here to stay! You might be right, random italicized voice.  Don’t forget, closers still find a way to lose their job.  In the past week, Downs is down, Jenks looks jenky, Frank-Frank is a baby sneeze away from another stint on the DL, I fully expect Lindstrom to get back in the closer picture within two weeks and Nathan seems about as safe as they come and yet, he’s still just a closer.  Look at the ground with your forward facing eyes and put some drops in the eyes in the back of your head.  In other words, don’t settle in.  Sleep is the cousin of death.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (+2) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (-1) (Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell)
4. Mariano Rivera (+2) (Phil Hughes)
5. Jonathan Broxton (-4) (Ramon Troncoso, George Sherrill)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Heath Bell (-1) (Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams)
7. Joakim Soria (+14) (Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright)
8. Francisco Cordero (David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
9. Jose Valverde (+11) (Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias, LaTroy Hawkins)
10. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes)
11. Huston Street (+2) (Rafael Betancourt, Matt Daley)
12. David Aardsma (Sean White, Mark Lowe)
13. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
14. Trevor Hoffman (+9) (Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter)
15. Kevin Gregg (Carlos Marmol)
16. Fernando Rodney (Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon)
17. Rafael Soriano (+2) (Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan)
18. J.P. Howell (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson)
19. Brian Fuentes (-10) (Jason Bulger, Darren Oliver, Justin Speier)
20. Chad Qualls (+8) (Jon Rauch)
21. Brad Lidge (-3) (Ryan Madson)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Capps (+4) (Jesse Chavez)
23. Kerry Wood (+2) (Chris Perez, Joe Smith)
24. Mike MacDougal (+5) (Sean Burnett, Jason Bergmann)
25. Andrew Bailey (-12) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
26. Frank Francisco/C.J. Wilson (-2) (Darren O’Day)
27. Bobby Jenks (-10) (Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink)
28. Jason Frasor (-2) (Scott Downs, Brandon League)
29. Leo Nunez (Matt Lindstrom, Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer)
30. Jim Johnson (-11) (Danys Baez, Chris Ray, Billy Ray Valentine)