Fantasy Baseball Advice

I hate regression, my hairline does it every day. Though subtly, like a ninja assassin, as it mocks me in the mirror when I’m brushing my teeth. Pitcher regression is a known entity. We all assume it will happen, but when and where is the big query. It seems to have hit all the guys I write about every week at once. So like the cup in Indiana Jones, choose, but choose wisely. As you may end up a pile of dust, with crappy peripherals and a cat looking at you like you’re a great place to lay claim. I can’t tell you to not chase wins, because we all do it. So just be cautious is all I’m saying and use knowledge that you have over others to guide your team from here on out. Good luck this week and any questions you may have drop me a comment. (Please be aware that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/24
Javier Vazquez vs. Cin – Arroyo
Livan Hernandez vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Hammel vs. Hou – Rodriguez

8/25
Brandon Beachy @ CHC – Garza
John Lannan vs. Ari – Miley
Brett Cecil vs. KC – Francis

8/26
Josh Collmenter vs. SD – Leblanc
Esmil Rogers @ LAD – Lilly
Randy Wolf vs. CHC – Lopez

Jeff Karstens (Mil vs. Greinke, @StL vs. Carpenter) Like most Pirates, he walked the regression plank. Tough matchups this week are making me look both ways before crossing the street, cause knowing is half the battle…GI Joe.

Brian Duensing (Bal vs. Simon, Det vs. Penny) Not a fan of the home field advantage. Has RP eligibility coupled with some sweet matchups. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Joe Saunders (@Was vs. Detwiler, SD vs. Harang) Attention D-backs fans, yeah, all 6 of you.  Get in close so you can hear me. Starting game 3 of the NLDS, Joe Saunders….crickets. Fantasy wise he is crap, real life he is a scrapper. Scrappiness wins out this week with some decent matchups and a hot team.

Erik Bedard (@Tex vs. Wilson, Oak vs. Moscoso) Still chasing that first Sawx win. He is getting close to what we want/expect him to be. A kitty cat? That comment brought to you by my 3 year old niece.

Paul Maholm (Mil vs. Estrada, StL vs. Lohse) Watching him regress is like watching Journey without Steve Perry. Expect nothing. He hit the wall, hit it hard and is down for the waiver wire count.

Jason Vargas (@Cle vs. Carmona, CHW vs. Danks) Stat-wise where he is right now is where he should have been all year. Barely serviceable and an occasional spot start based on hot streak. It’s your call, but I think I’m heading on down the highway here.

Bruce Chen (@Tor vs. Morrow, @Cle vs. Masterson) Let’s see, we wouldn’t pick him up for starts versus the Yankees, Tigers and Pale Hose. I wonder how those starts turned out? My inner Bruce Chen is telling me to gamble here. Finished last year strong also, I can’t make this stuff up.

Bud Norris (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Cain) How is a pitcher with a high K-rate, ERA in the mid 3’s not owned everywhere? Look at the stats, they look like Gio, but without the Latin rhythm and paltry BB/9 rate.

Nate Eovaldi (@StL vs. Carpenter, Col vs. Chacin) Unfamiliarity may be guiding his ship. Features a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball, above average curve and a passable change. Walk rate is the death march to any young starter.

Fausto Carmona (Sea vs. Vargas, KC vs. Duffy) Frustrating. You watch him pitch and he looks unhittable one inning, next inning he is throwing underhand and rolling around the infield in Stephen Hawking’s wheel chair.

What a distracting week. Football comes in and trumps all of the trade deadline thunder, and I’m getting sick of seeing “Mr. Mackey” give football updates. If I have to explain that joke, then it really wasn’t that funny. So back to the sport that is actually being played. Trade deadline rumors are rampant, some pieces have been moved already, with some really interesting fantasy relevant moves to come. On a side note, for my money is there a better GM in baseball than AA in Toronto, he seems to always be a couple steps ahead of other GM’s. Any the who, enjoy the last 2 days of real baseball trading, hopefully the moves will be beneficial to your teams. Nothing sucks worse than losing a top 10 closer this late in the season, but such is life. Good luck on this week’s endeavors. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/3
Dillon Gee vs. Fla – Hensley
Josh Collmenter @ SF – Vogelsong
Ted Lilly @ SD – Stauffer

8/4
Brett Cecil @ Tb – Davis
Jason Marquis @ Col – Jiminez

8/5
Jeff Karstens vs. SD – Harang
Jake Westbrook @ Fla – Nolasco
Jeff Niemann vs. Oak – Moscoso
Mark Buehrle @ Min – Blackburn

Paul Maholm (CHC vs. Zambrano, SD vs. Moseley) Last five starts a very acceptable 3.12 ERA, home ERA on the year 2.37. You picking up what I’m putting down? Playoff hopes start with Maholm and end with the next dude. Pretty scary proposition.

Kevin Correia (CHC vs. Wells, SD vs. Luebke) I have been riding his roads starts like a saddle, now 2 home starts. Match-up wise it looks pretty favorable, it’s getting to be make or break week for the Pirates, raise the Jolly Roger.

Bronson Arroyo (@Hou vs. Norris, @CHC vs. Wells) I was sitting next to Chris De Burgh at a bar the other day and he started singing in honor of Bronson, sentimental stuff. I’m still looking for a useful fantasy tidbit, skip and come back later. Oh I got something, he is the clubhouse leader in negative WAR. Way to go.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, StL vs. Carpenter) Last 4 starts have been better, fantasy-wise he is the roller coaster that someone died on, but we still want to ride it because we have heard before that it was cool.

Doug Fister (Oak vs. Cahill, @Ana vs. Santana) Reading his stats is like reading an obituary. It has a funny twist at the end of it though, he has 12 losses and is top 20 for SP in WAR.

John Lannan (Atl vs. Lowe, @Col vs. Cook) Last 10, 4-2 and a 3.17 ERA. Free passes are his undoing. Home ERA is 2 runs lower than road. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Mike Pelfrey (Fla vs. Vazquez, Atl vs. Jurrjens) Home ERA 3.35. Career low GO/AO. Which means he is giving up a ton of HR’s. Those my friends are ungood for fantasy.

Brian Duensing ( @Ana vs. Santana, CHW vs. Danks) Anyone else think that Santana gets killed in his first start after the no-no? Guess I’m the only one. 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA since July 1st.

Kyle Kendrick (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Lincecum) Somewhere Joe Blanton is sobbing, saying “that should be me.” To me any Philly starter is worth the gamble. Yeah, I went out on a limb there I know. Since June 1st no starter ERA is above 3.70.

Cory Luebke (LAD vs. Kershaw, Pit vs. Correia) He and Moseley have started feeding their teammates Tex-Mex before each of their starts. No word on who supplies the TP. In a funny side note, he is related to Dick Luebke from the 60’s. Yeah, say it twice it’s funnier the second time. Take advantage of the Hodgepodgery.

It’s a confusing week for me to grasp. Some formats are a short week, others role on until literally the middle (or end) of next week. So first things first, I will tackle the short 4 game week and give you some unbridled gems of the streaming variety. Stay tuned on Saturday for the following week’s two start thinga-ma-bobbers.  If this is a short week for you, it’s prolly best to grab as many of these guys as possible, longer week not so much as you may want to call Laurel and tell him to take a breather. So enjoy the short week or long and I will give you an update later this week for week 15 ½ or 16. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

7/14
Bruce Chen @ Min (Liriano) – 2.50 ERA since DL stint return. Is the definition of a streaky low end good/bad pitcher.

Jason Vargas vs. Tex (Holland) – Basically needs to go the distance to have a chance at a win. 1.70 ERA in last 4 starts.

Aaron Harang vs. SF (Bumgarner) – The primate in the zoo, Hodgepadre indeed.

7/15
Andrew Miller @ TB (Price) – 4 starts, 3 wins plays for the best lineup in baseball. That is all.

Doug Fister vs. Tex (Lewis) – Gets zero run support. I really feel bad for him because if you haven’t seen him pitch, he is very unheralded and unrewarded.

Jeff Karstens @ Hou (Myers) – Is he awesome, no. Effective lately yes. Regression will ensue.

Josh Tomlin @ Bal (Arrieta) – Sneaky 10 win pitcher, other numbers say he is pitching exactly the way he should be.

Vance Worley @ NYM (Dickey) – Awesome since mid-June. If he isn’t owned, your league is dull.

7/16
Paul Maholm @ Hou (Norris) – 4-2 with a 1.75 ERA in last 7 starts. For the soon to be first place Pirates.

Barry Zito @ SD (Luebke) – 3 wins, tiny ERA since DL return.

Edwin Jackson @ Det (Scherzer) – Huh, yeah I wanted to highlight that this will be his last start in Chi-town. That’s me predicting me!

Carlos Zambrano vs. Fla (Vazquez) – Fresh from the DL, seems like a trend for this post. Pitches just effectively enough to be added/dropped about 10 times a year. Ah, but look closer, he has RP elig, sneaky play for a Saturday.

7/17
Chris Volstad @CHC (Wells) – Stop trying to strike everyone out, you’re a groundball pitcher.

Matt Harrison @ Sea (Beavan) – Seattle O is good twice a week.  Coincidentally, that’s how much my garbage is picked up.

Brian Duensing vs. KC (Paulino) – Sneaky good lately, here for the added eligibility.

Kevin Correia @ Hou (Rodriquez) – Is money on the road.

Master Standings are here.

The tight battle continues at the top of the standings, with 6 teams totaling 105 or more points. The Pesky Pole Dancers (Trippin’ Baseballs) held on to first place, gaining 3 points to 112. The Dancers made 2 moves, replacing Jose Tabata and Ike Davis with Jason Kubel and Cory Luebke.  Luebke was added in most leagues, and provided 6 scoreless innings and a win. He is currently owned in 31 of the 38 RCLs.

Buchz and Dunn (Too Drunk To Call a Cabrera) jumped 4 points to 110, and moved into second. Better Lucky Than Good (Partially Torn RCL) also gained 4, and now sits in 3rd place with 107 points. Random ItalicizedVoice (RCL 5), THE VILLE AL KOHOLIC A (ECFBL), That’s a shame (The Dread Pirate Rides Again), Buc Lover (Sonic Death Monkey), and Cooperstown SchMohawks (Slam and Legs Special) round out the teams that have at least 100 points.

Ham Porter (RCL 17) jumped from 57 points to 70, and moved up from 304th to 185th in the standings.

The ECFBL joins The Dread Pirate Rides Again and RCL 5 as the most competitive leagues with an index of 103.

In individual leagues, the average lead atop the standings is just under 10 points. There are 13 leagues where the lead is under 5, and 9 more under 10. There are 4 leagues where the lead is at least 20, with Buc Lover (Sonic Death Monkey) having the biggest lead at 26. In Razzy Number 13, there are 6 teams within 9 points of Casey Crotchman, who lead with 77 points.

Here are the category leaders (average) for the season:

Runs:  Pesky Pole Dancers (1st) 648 (515)
HR:  Lazy Sunday (26th) 173 (122)
RBI:  Bloomington Psychotoad (48th) 601 (493)
SB:  Team Musz (334th) 142 (89)
Ave:  Roid Rage (94th) .288 (.263)
K: Mister Met (268th) 899 (662)
Wins:  Baltimore Domination (67th) 72 (47)
Saves:  Better Lucky Than Good (3rd) 108 (49)
ERA:  Team ryanshea (91st) 2.70 (3.58)
WHIP: Broth’s Bombers (137th) 1.06 (1.23)

The strikeout leader, Mister Met (RCL 33) has used 163 of the 180 allowable pitching starts. Baltimore Domination (Matthew Berry is a Tool), the Wins leader, has 53 starts left.  The season is 52.7% complete, which would equate to around 95 starts used and 85 left. Currently, the team average is 104 starts used.

There was a big trade in the ECFBL Sunday. Evil Evies sent Justin Upton to Retro Vertigo for Albert Pujols and Daniel Hudson. With rumors that Pujols will return today, this could turn out to be a major coup for the Evies. In all, there were 8 trades in the past week, including Shane Victorino for Cole Hamels, Carlos Pena for Heath Bell, and Zack Greinke for Jaime Garcia.

Jose Reyes – He was the 3rd SS taken in most drafts, but he has been 1 of the top fantasy performers. In the RCLs his ADP was 28.6. Irish Whiskey (RCL 5) took him the earliest, at number 18. LOBSTER COLA (Razzbawl 36) was lucky enough to get him with the 40th pick. He is currently hitting .354 with 30 steals. He has 3 home runs and 32 RBI with 65 runs scored.

Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo has provided decent numbers with 17 home runs and 57 RBI. He is hitting .271 with 44 runs and 6 stolen bases. With an ADP of 7.9 though, owners are hoping for another monster finish.

Eric Thames – Off to a great start(14 for 38, 9 runs, 3 home runs) in his second stint in the majors, he is currently owned in 4.9% of ESPN leagues and 22 of 38 (57.9) RCLs.

Travis Snider – Hit 3 doubles with 2 RBI in his first game back from the minors, and has been scooped up by 30 RCL teams.

Phil Hughes – Due to return from the DL on Wednesday, he is currently on 26 RCL rosters.

Vance Worley – In the last couple weeks, he has 2 wins with 15 Ks in 20 innings and an ERA of 0.45, but is owned in only 5 RCLs.

Barry Zito – With 4 Ks in 13 IP, he is not exciting anyone despite 2 wins and a 1.38 ERA. He is on 1 RCL roster.

Brian Duensing – Also on 1 RCL team, Duensing has 2 wins and 15 strikeouts in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.18.

Mark Ellis – Hitting .444 with 2 home runs in 4 games with Colorado, and has 2B eligibility. He is available in 26 RCLs.

So Grey lost his stache in a tragic sparkler related accident, but did manage to partially recover the remnants and is having them reattached as we speak, so I’m going to fill in for him on this sacred of holidays, July 5th.

If you have ever seen or heard of the NFL or smelled a jock strap at any point, then you might want to check out what is going down over on my side of the tracks. We’ve got all kinds of hootenannies and shin-digs about to be gettin up and gettin down, so don’t just hole up over here! Venture out into the world and stop by and and take a load off on the Razzball Football porch, there’ll be lightning bugs and we’ll be drinking rot gut out of a mason jar.

Now that the self promotion is over, read my invaluable thoughts on what happened in Major League Baseball yesterday:

Freddie Freeman: Freddie freed the ball from it’s oppressor, the stadium, twice to celebrate Independence Day. Grey’s pick for NL Rookie of the Year is on pace to be in the running. Those were his 10th and 11th homers so he’s on pace for 78 home runs, oh, let me go over those numbers again, make that, hmmm, so if they play 164 games he’d be on pace for 22 home runs, and if you lop off those 2 games in which he would probably have hit like 8 homers, that would put him on pace for 14.

Mark Reynolds: Mini Donkey hit 2 homers yesterday and just missed a third and is as hot as a donkey can be sans the Tijuanian hooker. Five donks in the last 3 games is ok if you are into that kind of thing.

Rajai Davis: Could the call up of Travis Snider have set a fire under Davis? Well, two games in and you’d have to say yes. And with that kind of sample size there’s no way you can go wrong! I had high hopes for him before the season started and my hopes continued to get lower and lower until they got lower than a slug’s belly, so he can’t really go anywhere but up and going 5 for 9 with 4 stolen bases in the last 2 games is up.

Troy Tulowitzki: He strained his quad and looks like he will be out a couple days. The last time I was at the quad it was to do a little hacky-sacking. Right now they are looking at a couple days rest, but you never know! Be afraid!! Or not, it’s just a game.

Travis Snider: He was called up and quickly hit 3 doubles. Three triples would have been more poetic, but hey, you take what you can get.  But be careful, this dude has a TCAP Stache.

Alex Presley: With Jose Tabata out, Alex has yet to leave the building and the with the way he is playing he may not. He is 12 for 33 since being called up with 6 RBIs and 2 stolen bases. Tabata should be back in a week-ish so don’t get too googly-eyed, but you two could have a magical week together! Send me a postcard.

Pablo Sandoval: The panda dog seems to have gotten his power back. He went 3 for 5 with a panda donk yesterday and has hit in 15 straight games and an extra-base hit in 9 games in a row. And if you find a picture of a panda dog wearing sandals give me a holler.

Emilio Bonafacio: Emily Facebone (rough translation) is sagnoffin like crazy. He has 6 stolen bases in the last 6 games and he happens to be hitting a little as well, which probably helps him get on base and thus steal bases. He is 10 for his last 28.

Adrian Beltre: Yesterday he went 2 for 5 with a home run and he’s gone  9 for his last 16 with 5 runs and 7 RBIs.  If you add all that up it spells, well, nothing because numbers don’t usually add up to words.

Brian Duensing: In his first 4 starts he gave up an America, Eff Yeah-sized 21 runs in 20.2 innings. A run an inning does not look too good on the resume. Since then he has given up 10 runs in his last 7 starts for a much more career builder friendly 2.45 ERA, and a 4-2 record. The competition has been somewhat iffy, so he’s still in spot starterville, but I’m keeping my eye on him.

Ricky Nolasco: He has RickNolled anyone who even thought about owning him, but he has looked better of late. It’s a good sign that he held the Phillies to one run yesterday, but of course the Marlins don’t really care to score runs that often.

Danny Valencia: O Valencia! He’s setting the city on fire! He’s 11 for his last 25 with 2 homers and 9 RBIs in the last 6 games. Will he keep this up? Hmm, maybe, maybe not. What am I, some kind of psychic! But I picked him up in a league where David Wright is taking his own sweet time coming back. Third base is a gaping hole of doom.

Adam Dunn: Big Ass decided to go all Big Donkey for the night and hit a home run and got his second hit off a lefty all season (that raised his average against lefties to .036). This of course coincides with me dropping him. I’m skeptically pessimistic.

Mike Napoli: He’s off the DL and got a hit in his first at bat back. That’s good news.