As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.

Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.

Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.

Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

How old do you have to be to get the title? I’m gonna guess at least over 30. Clearly I’m dating myself…no I don’t mean that in a narcissistic way, I’m simply claiming old-fogeyness over here. I say that because I want a simple raising of the hands: how many of you knew the singer/rapper of Rico Suave wasn’t actually Rico Suave but in fact Gerardo? Mmm-hmm, go ahead and put your hand down, I can see you still have pimples. You too, I can tell you can’t legally drink a beer by your One Direction t-shirt. It’s ok, you aren’t going to impress me by knowing, though you COULD impress me by having better musical taste. Don’t go laughing at Gerardo and hum ‘What Makes You Beautiful’ with the same mouth, kiddo. I just wanted a feel for how close I am to cultural irrelevance and know now I’m at death’s door. Duly noted. If you think our pal JFOH wouldn’t make the same old musical reference well…you don’t know JFOH. Yes, I’m subbing in for our resident hater as he told me he was gonna go do something in Brazil this weekend. Something about blowouts and waxes, I think. But yeah, you don’t care about my impending demise, a bad rap song from the early 90s, or JFOH’s hair stylings, you came to talk creeper and it’s high time we get to it. So let’s keep with what the title tells me we should talk about and look at why Eugenio Suarez is a solid pick up for week 14 of the 2014 Fantasy Baseball season…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I never got into boxing. I think the last time it was huge was during the Rocky heydays and maybe during Mike Tyson’s reign of terror on the industry before he was a mere caricature in that one funny movie. Though I do appreciate he brought me Mike Tyson’s Punch Out. Now THAT’S a classic. Loved beating King Hippo. Screw Mr. Sandman, though. Don’t think I ever beat him with my pre-teen thumbs. But what were we talking about? Oh yeah, boxing…wait, why we talking about boxing? I never really got into boxing. *looks back at Wei-Yin Chen page*. Ohhhhh, I get it. ‘Weigh In’ = ‘Wei-Yin’. Seriously, who writes this crap? Oh right…neverthewho! Chen has a nice match up on a day where there are slim-pickins for cheap arms. So why Chen you ask? Valid question and here’s my valid answer: it’s all about the K’s, baby! Sorry, don’t know where my Dick Vitale impersonation came from but it’s true: The Chi-Sox are at the bottom of the league for team K% and it’s no different against LHP as they hold a 23.5% K-rate and a middling .301 wOBA against them. Trust me when I say, the DraftKings choices for cheap arms is a little thin. You could almost say…featherweight? Yeah, I’m done trying to tie back into Boxing. Let’s get this thing going. Here are the other picks for DK contests for today…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

When Jaime Garcia was a kicker in high school for his Flick Football team, he lined up the paper football, just left of the finger uprights across from him, adjusting for the southwesterly wind coming from a student’s handheld fan. Like it was happening in slow motion, he flicked hard, the paper sailed through, poking the kid’s eye that was holding the finger uprights. Unfortunately, Garcia also pulled a finger tendon and had to watch from the sidelines the rest of the year as his team marched to the playoffs. Ever since then, he’s never been able to shake the injury bug, and yesterday he hit the DL with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately for the rest of us, the Fantasy Baseball Overlord’s hunger for ruining pitchers’ arms didn’t stop at Garcia, and Michael Wacha is out with a shoulder injury too. Wacha, Wacha, f**ka! Wacha has a stress reaction on his shoulder, and the Cards are saying no surgery is required, but his fantasy owners may still want to make a Kenesaw Mountain Landis out of Doritos and pray to it. The good news, Carlos Martinez will now be in the rotation for at least another month. He went 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks yesterday, and I’d grab him in most leagues now that he’s staying in the rotation. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It was a good night for a rally, but a bad night for a closer. Summer is officially here which means we can no longer use the “he’ll heat up as soon the weather warms up” excuse for our struggling stars. And just as the air at Coors makes the balls fly higher, the increased temperature and humidity also causes those baseballs to travel even farther. This time of year the advantage tends to shift from the pitchers to the hitters. It’s science, Mr. White! Fact. Just go ask a scientist. He’ll tell you summer is coming, Jon Snuh, no need to look so depressed all of the time. Perhaps this explains why last night, on Summer’s Eve, a number of closers collectively decided to destroy your ratios in an all out Closer Catastrophe. Let’s start with Zach Britton (0.2 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, BS (2)). I haven’t seen a Yankee beat a Britton like that since the Battle of Saratoga. Revolutionary war joke! (NERD!)  With nine saves in the past month, it’s hard for Britton’s owners to complain here, so let’s move on. Old Reliable Glen Perkins (1.0 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB), was handed his third blown save but managed his third win, in expert vulture stylez. The crowning jewel of last night’s CloserTastrophe, Aroldis Chapman (0.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 BB, 4 ER) was handed the loss after a five run ninth inning capped off by a 3-run HR by Edwin Encarnacion. Say it ain’t so, Roldy! Is no one safe? With Craig Kimbrel (1.0 IP, 1 hit, 2 BB, 1 ER) notching his fourth blown save I should think not. Anthony Rendon hit a game-tying HR (11) off Craig, the first homer Kimbrel has surrendered all season. Are you getting scared yet? Was there a full moon last night or something? How about Greg Holland (1.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 BB, 2 ER) taking his second loss. This one was tied when he entered but stillz. By this time in the night when I saw Kenley Jansen (0.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 hits) enter the game with one run lead, I knew it could only end poorly. Escape while you can, Kenley! Fake a stomach cramp or something! He was handed his third blown save of the year. Sure, I’m ignoring all the closers who did manage to notch saves last night, but that’s not the point. It was a tough night to be a closer, but an even tougher night to own one in fantasy baseball. I feel your pain, all.

Here’s what else happened in fantasy baseball Friday night:

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Yesterday, there was a pitching performance that truly captured the minds and hearts of the general public. You know, the general public — the people you smile at on the street and wonder how they got their shirt on because they look so dumb. Those people! This pitching performance wasn’t done by just any average pitcher. No, it was done by…an outfielder. Travis Snider struck out Joey Votto! Whaaaaaaat?! Oh, and Clayton Kershaw threw a no-hitter. It should’ve been a perfect game, but Hanley didn’t feel like it. It’s okay, Hanley, don’t beat yourself up over it too much. Let Dodger fans do it for you! Kershaw’s game wasn’t perfect in the strictly record book sense, but it was in the fantasy sense. 15 Ks, no hits, no walks — you now have the best pitching performance of this year, and it might be a top ten fantasy start of all-time. I wonder if you could buy him low. I keed! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s been pretty well written about that a top tier starter is the way to go in Draftkings. There’s some really, really, really, really nice, sexy, and really pretty expensive options out there in Mad Bum, Waino and Klubes. I like them almost as much as I like looking at myself in the mirror. There’s a potential bounce back, former ace candidate in Verlander who can remove his underwear without removing his pants. He should turn it around soon… But I’ve been working on my humanitarianisms and I am going to say that I like the stacks of hitters out there today even more than my reflection. It’s nice to a have pitcher who pitchers really good. I’m a fan of pitchers who look and pitch really good. But today, I’m deepening myself and taking a tour of “A Center for Hitters Who Can’t Read a Lefty Pitch So Good.” It’s my newest attempt at beautifying the future children of America.

Many of you may say that I’m punting pitching here. That’s a lie! I see beauty in these matchups. Vidal Nuno isn’t good, but he pitches solely with his left hand which is customary practice in some parts of the world. Did I just confuse his pitching with ass wiping? That’s actually normal if you’ve seen him pitch, but if you’ve seen the Mariners face a LHP then you know he’ll only need one square to get the job done. Pitching in the Mariners home park he’s a Safeco bet to give you a quality start and rack up some Ks. He’s a thrifty, nifty choice today at $6,200.

There’s some beautiful matchups out there today to exploit and we’re stacking across the board. If you haven’t given Draftkings a try, today’s a good day to play. First shot at winning real cash is on the house if you use this link. I got some more nice plays for you to check out, but don’t ever, EVER forget to pay homage to the DFSBot and his parents Stream-O-Nator and HitterTron.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Alert the trolls!  Plaster up the bulletins under the bridges!  Because I’m biased.  I hate the Cardinals.  They’re just so good against my Brewers!  And yeah, that’s pretty much all I got… Ummm, also… because McGwire did steroids?!  Yeah that doesn’t work from a Brewers fan… Ummm, because Lance Lynn is a porker and dominates us every time out?  Dammit, Wily Peralta is listed 5 pounds heavier!  I have no rational basis…

And with said caveats, I’ve never been a Jaime Garcia fan.  I actually picked him up in that redonk rookie year in 2010, and sold him mid-season which didn’t really work out.  As he returned from a rash of shoulder injuries plaguing the past few seasons, he was further off my radar than the Red October.  Can you believe he’s never had a WHIP under 1.30 in ANY Major League season?  And that includes only 9 starts last year and 10 appearances in 2008.  Then after seriously considering him for my top 100 SP ranks last week, he got rocked at KC Tuesday.  But followed it up with a gem yesterday at Toronto!  What is going on here?!  I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!  So I decided to break down Sunday’s start and re-address my ill-conceived biases – and Garcia – for this week’s re-ranks:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It seems like nothing can go wrong for the Blue Jays right now. They’ve won six in a row and eight of their last ten games, and last night rookie Marcus Stroman grabbed his third win in just his second MLB start, pitching six innings, allowing just one run while giving up seven hits, walking two, and striking out seven. Let the Stromania begin! After defeating the Royals last week, Stroman has now given up just two runs in 12 innings, with a 13/2 K/BB ratio. One of Razzball’s top-20 prospects going into 2014, we’ve been mentioning him for a while now. Stroman’s got a mid-nineties fastball, and a filthy slider and cutter in his repertoire. He may have what it takes to hang with the big dogs, and with the way the Jays have been playing he might become a part of something big. (Bring the American League championship back to where it belongs! Canada.) Marcus excelled in the minors this year (35.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.36 K/9) before being called up in early May to serve as bullpen help, where he struggled a bit. However, now that he’s likely to see a considerable look in the rotation all those Ks and Ws and possibly other letters (WHIP? ERA?) could be yours.  He was a BUY this week although he will undoubtedly experience some ups and downs in the perilous AL East, but Marcus has a nice start versus the Twins next week and I’d try to add him in most standard leagues for some serious strikeout upside. And that’s coming from a bonafide Stromaniac.

Here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball Friday night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

There was a strange time in history that some may not be aware of. It was a time when Fergie wasn’t a household name and giving her fans dreams of golden showers. It was a time they were all about having a live backing band instead of sampled beats. It was a time when they were earning critical acclaim for what I’ll biasedly – which IS a word, autocorrect; check yo’self! – say was good music. Well, at least in comparison to what everyone thinks of them as now. And then things changed. Is it irony or coincidence they became a household name with a song titled ‘Let’s Get Retarded’? I don’t know, Alanis has effed me up forever on that word. I’ll hand it off to you, dear reader, to discern for me that debate. But back to what we came to talk about…wait, all we’ve talked about is Black Eyed Peas. Hrm…que awkward segue! Well, maybe Erik Bedard has a similar career arc. Drift back with me to 2005-2006 and you had what seemed like an ace in the making. Then 2007 happened and he dropped a beautiful endline: 182 IP, 3.16 ERA, 10.93 K/9 and move to a pitcher friendly park in Safeco as 2008 destination. Everything was pointing up for Bedard’s career. And then injuries and ineptitude hit. The most innings he’s pitched in a season since 2007 is 151 with the Astros last year and I wouldn’t call many of them successful. Fast forward to the now and his season stat line still looks like a mess but there’s some underlying hope for him being useful as he turned in a 3.00 ERA in May. Given the right matchup, you could dare say Erik will having you wanting to Pump It (LOUDER!) and I’ll say the Mariners are just that. The Mariners sport the 5th worst team wOBA against left handed pitching on the year which should be no surprise considering like 90% of the lineup is left-handed. Given he’s the 5th cheapest pitcher on DraftKings today at $6,100, buying in will give you plenty of room to roster an ace like Yu Darvish without breaking your bat bank. And before you say ‘bish u cray’ about this call, the DFSBot is on board, calling him the 10th best pitcher to go today and the 3rd best money differential play with a positive value of 2412 over his going price. But enough about getting Bedard’ed, let’s move on. Here are some more Razzball picks for June 6th…oops, before I go just wanted to let you know I’ll be driving myself to the oblivion that is a family reunion on the Mrs. side so J-FOH has lovingly said he’ll caddy the questions for today. Be nice to him. I don’t wanna come back to find out you were all terrors in the comments section. Now moving on…

Please, blog, may I have some more?