The Cubs’ MLB-ready talent doesn’t extend too far beyond Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson. A few relief prospects and a backup catcher could crack the big league roster, but there aren’t a slew of guys here who are ready to contribute in the majors. Even so, Rizzo and Jackson alone are sufficient to generate fantasy buzz. And behind them, the Cubs have youthful types like Matt Szczur, Javier Baez and Dillon Maples.
Of all their additions this offseason, none is more important than Theo. The Cubs are finally setting smart, long-term goals through emphasizing scouting and player development. They’ve partnered with Bloomberg Sports, who will develop custom information systems and support data-driven decision-making. They’re dumping Major League dead weight and they’re building from within. They seem to be heading in the right direction.
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Jeff Beliveau (LHP); Chris Carpenter (RHP); Andrew Cashner (RHP); Marcus Hatley (RHP); Trey McNutt (RHP); Junior Lake (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Josh Vitters (OF); Brett Jackson (OF)
Although Soriano and Byrd remain, it seems only a matter of time before one (or both) is shipped elsewhere, making room for Jackson in the Chicago outfield. Grey previews Jackson here. It’s a great write-up mostly because of the dong joke (dong jokes get me every time), but I tend to agree with the non-dong-related content. I just used the word “dong” four times while discussing Brett Jackson. That places me second all-time behind Phil Rogers.
Grey discusses Donkey Kong Jr.’s 2012 outlook here. Rizzo, of course, now has a new team, a new ballpark and new teammates. Long-term, the new environment certainly helps Rizzo. But for 2012, I don’t think much needs to be changed from Grey’s projection, although 25 homers is probably a fair assessment, now. Rizzo will likely begin 2012 in Iowa. Bryan LaHair will hold his place in Chicago in the meantime. I expect Rizzo up by midseason.
There’s a good chance he’ll serve as Geovany Soto’s backup in 2012. .238 ISO at Triple-A in 2011 reflects nice pop for a catcher, even in the PCL. Soto, like many other Cubs regulars, is a trade candidate and Castillo would step into a starting role should a trade occur. He’ll be worth adding across all formats if he’s ever getting regular AB’s.
I suspect that Theo will, at some point, be shopping Marmol. That is, if he isn’t already. And if the Cubs are so lucky to unload their closer, Dolis seems like a good candidate to take on the role, as his high 90s sinking fastball can be utterly unhittable. He’ll likely start 2012 at Triple-A where he’ll work on secondary pitches and overall command, but he’ll be up before long.
Carpenter is a power righty who projects as a setup man. When his command is with him, he’s tough to hit, but he has struggled in that regard. Carpenter is pretty much a two-pitch guy with a high 90s fastball and high 80s slider. He should be ready to join the Cubs bullpen full-time in 2012.
Vitters moderate improvement at Double-A in 2011, slashing .283/.322/.448. But it’s still hardly the production that the Cubs would like to see out of their 3rd overall pick in 2007. At just 22, there is still time for him to polish his tools and start progressing, but he’ll need to begin doing so quickly.
McNutt struggled at Tennessee in 2011 and is probably in for a return to Double-A in 2012. For a power pitcher with a plus fastball and plus curve, it’s concerning that his strikeout ratios aren’t at all impressive (6.2 K/9 in 2011). A prospect with this kind of stuff shouldn’t be ignored, however. If he can improve his command, the ratios will fall in line and he could find himself pitching at Wrigley come September.
Jackson’s had a rough couple of years at Triple-A, but the Cubs haven’t yet lost faith. An initiative of Epstein’s has been to glean his rotation from a hoard of Major League-caliber pitching. Jackson still has the stuff to be included in that hoard.
Theo Epstein will play Brett Jackson, right? I mean, a new GM can toss out the used-up-and-spit-out pieces he inherits, right? It’s like when a new boss comes into a flailing company and all the employees start quaking in their boots that they’re gonna get fired because they’re unproductive. Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Tyler Colvin should be worried about their parking spots. Soriano, “Hey, there’s a Segway in my spot.” Epstein, “Bowden was liquidating. There’s parking on Waveland for $35 a day.” Last year at the age of 23, Jackson had 20 homers and 20 steals with a .274 average splitting time between Double and Triple-A. These numbers are right in line with his previous minor league years. So what can we expect of Brett Jackson for 2012 fantasy baseball?
His walks are solid, but he gets in trouble with strikeouts. Last year in Double-A, he had a strikeout percentage of 24.9 and 29.8 in Triple-A. That’s like Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn type levels and those guys were obviously doing that in the bigs with major dongs. (BTW, anyone who found us by Googling “in the bigs with major dongs” you’re at the wrong type of fantasy site, sorry.) Some may point out Jackson’s walks to counterbalance the K-razy other numbers. Sure, but how about I point out that he still strikes out a lot? Right now, his comp for 20/20 and strikeouts would be Mike Cameron. Um, eh. That dampens my enthusiasm a bit. This is a pretty inexact science when comparing players, but Cameron’s age 24 season in 1997 saw him go 14/23 with a .259 average in 116 games. I’d be more than happy if I got that from Jackson in 2012. That’s borderline in mixed leagues, but a great line for NL-Only. Since I think he will get to show his skills from the jump in 2012, I’d definitely look at him as a late flyer with upside in mixed leagues, but I could see you tossing him aside come mid-April when someone else comes out of nowhere. For 2012, I’d give Jackson a line of 60/15/70/.260/17 in a full season.
The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late offseason shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. To see the other half of the Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects for 2012, go there.
1. Matt Moore – LHP (SP) – TB: Two straight seasons of 200-plus strikeouts. A career 12.7 K/9 ratio. Yearly improvement on command. High of 155 innings pitching in 2011 projects for near 180 innings in 2012. Mid 90s fastball, a plus-curveball and a plus changeup make him my number one fantasy baseball prospect for 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
2. Mike Trout – CF – LAA: Has shown power in the majors in 2011. Could quickly become a 20/40 hitter with a .290-plus average. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
3. Jesus Montero – C – NYY: So much has been written on him and I also wrote a Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
4. Shelby Miller – RHP (SP) – St.L: Top right-handed pitching prospect in the game. Throws a mid to upper 90s fastball and a plus 12-to-6 curveball. I see a 2011 Michael Pineda type season for Miller in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
5. Julio Teheran – RHP (SP) – ATL: Will be the 2012 version of Jeremy Hellickson. Good control, fair strikeout rate and decent ratios. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
6. Jacob Turner – RHP (SP) – DET: Historically, the Tigers promote their pitchers aggressively. Could compete for a mid-rotation position in Spring Training and provide good value in AL-Only and deep leagues. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
7. Anthony Rizzo – 1B – SD: Struggled upon his first taste of the majors in 2011. The added experience will better prepare him in the future. Should be the Padres 2012 starting first basemen barring any major off-season acquisitions, an injury or management mismanagement. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
8. Wil Myers – C/LF – KC: Injuries slowed his 2011 season. Has shown patience at the plate. Defensively has adjusted well to the outfield. Projects above-average power, who pulls the ball often. Better deep league play than shallow leagues. Could be a .280 hitter with 20 home runs. I’d expect numbers similar to Eric Hosmer’s 2011 campaign if call-up in June.
9. Brett Jackson – CF – CHC: The Cubs could use an offensively-adept center fielder. Able to play all three outfield spots and sport a .290/20/20 line for fantasy. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
10. Zack Cozart – SS/2B – CIN: Injuries derailed his pleasant start in the majors. He hit .324 in 37 AB with two home runs. Over a full season, could be a sufficient source of both power and steals in the middle infield position(s). Think 15 to 20 home runs – especially at Great American Ball Park – and 20 to 30 steals with a poor average. So were talking Drew Stubbs at shortstop.
11. Brad Peacock – RHP (SP) – WAS: Brad rose from obscurity to relevancy in a few effective months at both Double-A and Triple-A; posted a 10.9 K/9 and a 2.9 BB/9 in 146 2/3 IP across the two levels. Important to note that upon promotion to Triple-A, ratios dropped. Historically consistent pattern within his career. Usually needs additional time – 40+ innings – at each level before thriving. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
12. Randall Delgado – RHP (SP) – ATL: The “other” Braves pitching prospect. A year older than Teheran, they are similar but with Delgado having a lower ceiling – a solid number two starter or above average number three. In the Braves rotation, he’ll be seen as the number four or five starter with Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Teheran, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor and Delgado, the Braves have strong core a pitchers. There will be no rush in promoting Delgado early. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
13. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (SP) – ATL: Promoted in 2011 to pitch from the bullpen to save innings and wear. Could easily slide back into similar position to start the 2012 season. With a glut of pitching talent, Vizcaino is the odd-man out of the rotation battles due to injury history and petite frame. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
14. Devin Mesoraco – C – CIN: Nothing better than a good hitting catcher, with decent power (20 home runs) and a fair average (~.290). Should be able to set him and forget him once promotion is secured. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
15. James Paxton – LHP (SP) – SEA: A power throwing lefty with command concerns. The Mariners have shown to promote their stud prospects aggressively. I would expect to see Paxton up before June. Could have command woes and will be a better play in deep mixed-leagues or AL-Only leagues. Dynasty leagues should stash him. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
16. Ryan Lavarnway – C – BOS: There are only so many years Varitek’s production, or lack thereof, can be tolerated. J.P. Arencibia 2.0. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
17. Leonys Martin – CF – TEX: Grey called him a “a poor man’s Desmond Jennings.” John Sickels stated, “[He's a] line drive hitter … good feel for the strike zone … strong contact abilities … not a huge home run hitter … [gap power] will hit plenty of doubles and could hit 10-15 homers a year in time. His running speed isn’t spectacular but rates as above average … throwing arm and outfield defense rate as above average.” I see him more as a Denard Span.
18. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (SP) – COL: Received in the coup for Ubaldo Jimenez, Pomeranz looks to make 2012 his coming out party after dominating in 2011. He posted a 10.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, in 98 innings between High-A and Double-A. His season was cut short by two starts after having an emergency appendectomy surgery. Would not be surprised to see him by June, if not before. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
19. James Darnell – 3B/OF – SD: Strong contact skills, gap power – 15 to 20 home run ceiling due to home ballpark – and good command of strike zone. A better Kevin Kouzmanoff.
20. Jarrod Parker – RHP (SP) – ARI: Battled back from Tommy Johns surgery and early season control issues; that should be expect due to injury. Once was a top 15 pitching prospect in the game. Expected to pitch from the bullpen at the end of the 2011 season to prepare for the rotation in 2012. Dominating offering combination of a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and power slider. Changeup is average. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
21. Tyler Skaggs – LHP (SP) – ARI: Throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good sinking action, an above-average low 70s curveball (best pitch) and a changeup. Commands and locates well. Pitches aggressively, is confident and poised on the mound; a ground ball pitcher (1.63 GO/AO in 2010 and 1.19 GO/AO in 2011). Projects as a number two or three starter. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
22. Henderson Alvarez – RHP (SP) – TOR: Quietly had a strong start to his career. Throws a heavy fastball and splitting action changeup. Will not be a strikeout pitcher; relies on ground balls and defense. Could have his ups-and-downs like Zach Britton.
23. Wade Miley – LHP (SP) – ARI: Not a heavy strikeout pitcher. Reminds me of a Mark Buehrle type pitcher – fair command and the occasional strikeout. He mid-August promotion has given him a jump start on the fourth or fifth rotation spot for 2012.
24. Wilin Rosario – C – COL: The last Rookies catcher to draw fantasy hype has been simply disappointing (Chris Iannetta). Rosario’s bat projects for 20 to 30 home runs a year, is able to utilize the whole field but needs improved strike zone judgment. Defensively is average. If he is able to keep strikeouts in check, he could be a .250 average and 20 home run catcher over a full season.
25. Wily Peralta – RHP (SP) – MIL: Is easily the Brewers top prospect. Throws a straight 92 to 94 MPH fastball with a good slider and slightly above-average changeup. Physically able to handle heavy workload, mechanically sound. A right-handed Ted Lilly.
Hello, my name is Brett Jackson. My recent power binge – four home runs in eight games – is confirming I am the Cubs best minor league player. Even when I strikeout nearly once every three at-bats, my prowess in the field and suave good looks will bring me to the top. Did I mention scouts believe I’m a lock for becoming a 20/20 player; at 15/18 across Double-A and Triple-A? With a little under a month, I may just prove them right.
Here is some other Minor League news:
Randall Delgado | ATL | RHP (SP): Was promoted to Triple-A on 8/3/11 after posting a 3.84 ERA, 110:46 K:BB in 117 1/3 inning at Double-A. With a career high of 161 innings pitched in 2010, I don’t see the Braves limiting his total innings this year. Could receive a September call up, depending on matchup could be a nice flyer/streamer by the end.
Matt Moore | TB | LHP (SP): Another week, another solid Matt Moore start at Triple-A: 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners (1 BB), 9 K.
Tim Wheeler | COL | CF: I lament your existence and lack of pedigree only for you to wipe my face in your stellar stats. I sing your laurels and tattoo your namesake to my arm for you to upper-deck my porcelain god. Take your .171/.227/.171 slash line in 41 at-bats and, and, and … argh, it’s not worth the time. [/rant]
Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B: Was demoted 7/21/11. Since 7/27/11, he is hitting .313/.366/.844 in 32 at-bats with 9 XBH (4 Hr). The Pacific Coast League definitely isn’t holding him back. His high strikeout rate in the majors and Petco probably had more do with his poor performance.
Julio Teheran | ATL | RHP (SP): What do you get when you’re the top pitching prospect in baseball, you have a string of consecutive starts were you haven’t lost since May, and you give up four runs in your worst start in over two months? Another win. His ERA is low, but is a positive, his strikeouts are down, but that is a negative, albeit, his walks are down, which happens to be a positive. Lows to remain one of the top pitching prospects for 2012, barring the Mayan’s predictions.
Martin Perez | TEX | LHP (SP): Lost in the shuffle of Matt Moore and Brad Peacock is Perez. One of the game’s top young (D.o.B: 4/4/1991) pitching prospects. He was promoted to Triple-A on July 16th, at the tender age of 20. His first start was decent, but starts two, three and four were a disaster. The most recent start (number five), was much better. He went 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 Baserunners (2 BB), and 8 K. Two years younger than my favorite young pitcher (Matt Moore), the Rangers number one prospect has plenty of time, pedigree and talent to reach the majors and become a bonafide number on starter.A
Johnny Giavotella | KC | 2B: The Royals promoted their 18th ranked prospect for Friday’s game. In Triple-A, he was hitting .338/.390/.481 in 453 at-bats with 45 XBH (9 Hr, 34 2B), 9 steals in 14 attempts and a 57:40 K:BB ratio. During his debut on Friday night, he went 2-for-3 with a double, RBI and a stolen base. He has gap power with slightly below average speed. Defensively, he’s a tweener. Nothing exciting. Don’t expect more than a few home runs and a couple of steals at most from Giavotella.
Zach Stewart | CHW | RHP (SP): The White Sox recalled Stewart to start Saturday against the Twins. Has control/command problems and good strikeout potential (8 K/9 ceiling) with his 94 to 96 MPH sinking fastball and biting slider.
Henderson Alvarez | TOR | RHP (SP): There were rumors that Alvarez would have received the Jays spot start given to Brad Mills. Alvarez is a ground ball pitcher who throws a 92 to 94 MPH plus-fastball and a plus changeup that has a feigned splitter action. His breaking pitch needs improvement. In 88 Double-A innings, he has 66 strikeouts, 17 walks, a 2.86 ERA (3.55 FIP) and a .286 BABIP. He is still learning how to pitch instead of throw and projects for middle-of-the-rotation.
I need to thank frequent commenter ltf for today’s lead. Tim Wheeler (COL, OF) has not been a highly touted prospect in the Rockies farm system – ranked number 21 overall. Since my Scouting the Unknown article written on June 1, 2011, he has hit 10 more home runs (6 weeks). With 24 home runs at Double-A and two multiple home run games in the last 10 days. Wheeler is positioning himself to skyrocket up the prospect ranking charts in 2012 while playing in the hitting friendly environment of his home park (Tulsa) and the Texas League. Is currently slashing .312/.392/.598 in 356 AB with 48 XBH (24 Hr) and 15 steals in 24 attempts with a 93:38 K:BB ratio. Keep a close eye on him, as the Rockies continue to spawn outfielders.
Tyler Skaggs | ARI | LHP (SP): Promoted to Double-A. First outing was poor at best: Gave up 5 runs, 10 baserunners (2 walks) and had 6 strikeouts in 4 innings. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Drew Pomeranz | CLE | RHP (SP): Promoted to Double-A after rocking High-A with 95 strikeouts, 32 walks and a 1.87 ERA in 77 innings. Unlike Skaggs, Pomeranz’s debut went exceptionally well. Over 4 2/3 innings, he allowed one run (on a home run), 4 baserunners (1 walk) and had 5 strikeouts.
J.D. Martinez | HOU | RF: Check out the recent article by John Sickels detailing Martinez. Also see Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Brett Lawrie | TOR | 2B/3B:Took batting practice last Sunday. A step in the right direction. We’re still looking at a mid-to-late August call up.
Alex Cobb | TB | RHP (SP): Will get the start on Monday (7/19/11) against the Yankees. He’s been very inconsistent when on the mound in the majors. Even with two wins and a sterling 3.41 ERA, I would avoid starting him on Monday.
Tyler Flowers | CHW | C: He was called up on 7/10/11 but has yet to see any playing time. This was expected. Nevertheless, if given playing time, he has the ability to hit 10 home runs over the rest of the season. Or kill your team’s average.
Logan Forsythe | SD | 2B: According to “unnamed sources,” Forsythe was recalled, again, on Friday to fill out the depth chart and fulfill the utility player role. Only in the deepest of NL leagues is he worth your time.
Brett Jackson | CHC | CF: Promoted to Triple-A on 7/15/11. Appears to be on track for a September promotion.
Jacob Turner | DET | RHP (SP): Jim Leyland stated that Turner’s chances of reaching the majors this year are a long shot. I would expect him to remain in the minors for this year and have every opportunity to win a starting job out of Spring Training. He has posted a 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 79/29 K/BB ratio over 100 2/3 innings at Double-A this year.
Zach McAllister | CLE | RHP (SP): Per Rotoworld (7/15/11), “Zach McAllister and David Huff are the prime candidates to be promoted from Triple-A Columbus to start for the Indians during Monday’s doubleheader.” I’d run far and fast in the other direction from these two options in all normal scenarios. However, they will be facing Minnesota. In deeper leagues, it would could be worth the stream start. I’d lean towards McAllister receiving the call.
