Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Cubs reportedly have completed a deal with the Red Sox which will send Marlon Byrd and some cash to Boston for RHP Michael Bowden and a player to be named later.  Theo and Jed have been firm on their plan to be patient with prospects Brett Jackson and Anthony Rizzo, but in the aftermath of this deal, one has to speculate if their timetables will be altered.  At .242/.342/.484 through 73 PA, Jackson’s performance in the early going at Triple-A Iowa isn’t demanding a call-up, but he could immediately be used to fill the void in center.  On the other hand, Rizzo’s numbers (.367/.406/.733) are indicative of a guy who’s ready for the next level.  The Cubs could surely shift David DeJesus to center and move LaHair to a corner outfield post.  That’d make room for Rizzo at first.  Perhaps most likely, though, the Cubs go with Tony Campana as their everyday guy in center – at least until the weather warms in Chicago, at which point I think Rizzo will get the first look, provided he’s still mashing, of course.

Danny Hultzen | SP, Mariners – After a rough debut, Hultzen has bounced back with two nice starts, bringing his season marks to 2.81 ERA and 11.81 K/9 at Double-A.  I touched on James Paxton’s hot start in last week’s post, and it should be noted that Taijuan Walker is off to a great start at Double-A, too.  Hutlzen’s progress, though, is emblematic of the polished approach that had many thinking he’d land a rotation spot in the bigs out of spring training.  Back on the right track, Hultzen still figures to reach Seattle first among their big three pitching prospects.

Matt Barnes | SP, Red Sox – Through 11 IP at Low-A Greenville, Barnes has allowed just four baserunners while posting a 0.00 ERA along with 16 K’s.  I suppose the 21-year-old is ready for High-A.  Expect to see him there soon.

Evan Gattis | C, Braves – His line through 62 PA:  .431/.500/.863, 6 HR, 21 RBI.  I suspect his .400 BABIP is more a product of a guy who’s absolutely murdering the ball, rather than a guy who’s getting lucky.  The drawback with Gattis is his age.  At 25-years-old he’s a little old to be farting around in A-ball, but the circumstances around his arrival in pro baseball are less than ordinary – he spent some time in rehab prior to being drafted… yada, yada, yada…  now his OPS is 1.363.  I imagine the Braves will move him along at an aggressive pace going forward.

Will Middlebrooks | 3B, Red Sox – Middlebrooks is killing it at Triple-A, hitting .377/.406/.721 with 6 homers through 64 trips to the plate.  Red Sox fans and fantasy owners can look forward to his full-time arrival in 2013.  For now, it’ll be fun to see if he can keep up the impressive power production in the International League.

Nolan Arenado | 3B, Rockies - With Anthony Rendon shelved due to a fractured ankle, Arenado emerges as the undisputed premiere 3B prospect in baseball. The 21-year-old is hitting .353/.450/.529 through 60 trips to the plate at Double-A Tulsa.  I think the Rockies would like to see a bit more from him in the XBH department, but there’s truly no one blocking Arenado from taking over at third in Colorado before this year is through.

Brad Peacock | SP, Athletics – Prior to March, most thought it’d be Peacock occupying a role in the A’s rotation out of camp rather than Tommy Milone, who’s been pitching rather effectively for Oakland so far.  Peacock, though, has been impressive through his first three starts at Triple-A, posting a 1.42 ERA through 19 IP.  It shouldn’t be long before he joins Milone in Oakland if should he continue to retire hitters with ease.

Billy Hamilton | SS, Reds - Hamilton led the minors in 2011 with 103 SB and he’s at it again in 2012, already having swiped 14 bags in 15 games with High-A Bakersfield.  Clearly the dude has wheels.  The rest of his offensive game ain’t bad, either:  .386/.470/.632.  He’ll be a tremendous fantasy asset when he arrives in the bigs, although don’t expect that arrival until the second half of 2013, at the soonest.

Wily Peralta | SP, Brewers – Chris Narveson looks like he’s headed for season-ending shoulder surgery and the Brewers have already recalled their top prospect, Peralta.  He’ll pitch out of the ‘pen initially, but it shouldn’t be long before he’s worked into the Milwaukee rotation.  The power righty had been solid in three Pacific Coast League starts, allowing just four runs through 17 IP while striking out 13.  Still, don’t go too waiver-crazy for Peralta.  He’s not a top-tier talent, but, assuming he’s starting games, he’ll be worth a look in most formats.

The Mets doctors said Johan Santana would miss a start or two.  That was a year ago.  He’s still working his way back.  The Mets doctors said Jose Reyes would miss a weekend series in 2009, he missed three months.  The Mets doctors said Carlos Beltran would miss a game in 2009; it took him two years to come back.  The other day someone asked me for money for Doctors Without Borders so they could help people in The Congo.  Why isn’t there a lady in front of Whole Foods asking me to donate to find a cure for David Wright?  Because I sure don’t trust the Mets doctors.  Film a PSA with Chipper Jones and Julie Andrews and show that shizz before movies.  “I’m Julie Andrews.”  “And I’m Chipper Jones”  Both, “And David Wright needs our help.”  The Mets are saying Wright has a tear in his left side and Mets fans have a tear in their eyes.  Word on the street is Wright has a similar injury to Ryan Zimmerman’s last year when he missed two months.  The prognosis, if prognosis is the right word, is not good.  Wright is saying he can be ready by Opening Day.  I say great, terrific, other sarcastic word, I don’t want to draft him anywhere.  If Della Reese touches his bat while dressed as an angel and Wright gets 500 ABs this year, how good do you think those 500 ABs are gonna be?  Do you think he’s going to show power?  If 22 homers were the low end for his projections, I’d be surprised if he breaks 17 homers now.  What if when he slides, he feels pain in his side?  He’s not going to be stealing bases.  You see Wright there in the 5th round now, I say pass.  Yes, third base just got shallower.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Salvador Perez – Tweaked his knee badly and the Royals sent him for an MRI.  I liked Perez late in drafts, so I went looking around for updates on this injury and ended up at the Kansas City Star.  Their article started with this line, “The Royals awaited word Tuesday night on the status of their $7 million catcher.”  It was funny — and by funny I mean not funny at all — to me how that was the attention grabber in KC.  KC is fretting over seven million dollars that is over five years.  Yeah, parity is alive and well.   Well, whatever the case is, it’s bad news for Perez.  He has a meniscus tear and will need surgery.  As of this writing, there was no timetable for his return, but I’m guessing six to eight weeks.  I’d avoid him in all leagues.  Too bad, so sad.

Desmond Jennings – Collided with B.J. Upton and both needed to be carted off the field.  This is the worst B.J. related news since that girl with the braces… Well, you remember.  Jennings says he’s fine and should be back on the field in a day or two.

B.J. Upton – On the other side of that collision, Fellatio Upton took the worse of it.  Yet, he too says he’ll be fine after a couple of days.  He’s just dealing with general soreness.  General Soreness is his bodyguard.

Freddy Garcia – Hit with a comebacker.  He told A-Rod he slept with his ex, and A-Rod said, “Yeah, well, that ex was really a man!”  *checking notes*  Hmm, seems like he was hit with a different kind of comebacker, one off a bat.  The X-rays came back negative, which is actually bad news because it means he can keep pitching.

Tim Hudson – Cleared to throw a bullpen session, but will still be out until at least the first few weeks of the season.  Bring on Randall Delgado!

Bryce Harper – Told reporters that he doesn’t expect to make the club.  Then the next day, Nats GM Rizzo (not Anthony) told reporters Harper could still have a shot.  We have a Razzball exclusive as to what really went down.  Harper to reporters, “I’m not making the club.”  Rizzo to Harper, “We’re trying to sell frickin’ tickets to frickin’ fans to see frickin’ Nats games and you’re telling them you’re not playing?!  Shut your pie hole!”  Rizzo to reporters, “He’s still in the picture. We’re still early in the decision-making process.”  Riiiiiiight.  That’s seven I’s.

John Lannan – Mike Rizzo said he’s fielded several calls on Lannan, but are not shopping him.  He must’ve learned how to neg from The Game.

Chris Perez – Threw from 150 feet yesterday.  Looks like the Indians found a Grady Sizemore replacement.  It’s sounding more and more likely that Perez will be ready to go for Opening Day.

Lance Lynn – With Carpenter almost definitely maybe heading to the DL to start the season, Lynn looks to move his way into the rotation.  Out of the bullpen last year, Lynn’s fastball regularly touched the high-90′s as he put up a 2.22 ERA and 32 Ks in 24 1/3 IP.  As a starter, he was much less exciting (5.23 ERA, 8 Ks), but like a man who needs prunes that was in limited duty (10 1/3 IP).  From his minor league track record, we see a guy who has a 7+ K-rate and moderate control.  In NL-Only and very deep mixed leagues, I’d grab Lynn late to see if he can surprise in an early season role with the Cards.  There’s a chance for some sweet, sweet upside here.

Tyler Greene – Battling right now for the Cardinals’ 2nd base job with Daniel Descalso and Skip Schumaker.  Obviously, unless you’re in a deep NL-Only league, you stopped reading this blurb already.  Nothing gets people excited like the mention of Skip Schumaker!  Greene did well in Triple-A last year (14 homers, 19 steals in 66 games), but that’s probably because he was 27 years old, i.e., he was old to still be in the minors.  In 150 major league games, he’s hit .218 with 5 homers and 16 steals.  Best case scenario, we get a Baha Man year.  Most realistic scenario, there’s a three-way time share at 2nd.

Josh Hamilton – Jammed his heel.  For those that like things delivered in comic book form, Texas hero deals with wounded heel.  Rangers are saying this is the first of five dozen minor injuries Hamilton will endure this year, but he should be fine.

Aroldis Chapman – Pitched well yesterday in his bid to become a starter.  There’s only one catch, the Reds have five starters already.  They would need an injury to someone on their staff.  Popping his head in, Dusty says, “Did someone say we need a pitching injury?”  Okay, but if you’re drafting today, you’re drafting Chapman as a middle reliever.

Anibal Sanchez – Maybe you’ve heard me mention this brother with the name of a mother before.  Yeah, I love him and guess what?  He struck out 4 yesterday through two innings with no problems from his previously sore shoulder.  When I say boo, you say ya.  Boo…Ya…  (By the way, I think the Marlins might be watching a bit too much of The Voice.)

Juan Carlos Oviedo – Will report to camp this week.  No word yet when Leo Nunez is reporting.

Ryan Howard – Yesterday, Jimmy Rollins said he’d be surprised if Howard plays this year.  In related news, the team announced Rollins is out of the running for Director of Phillies Public Relations.

Brett Jackson – As expected, the Cubs announced that Jackson will start the year in the minors.  There’s no way Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus are all still starting in the outfield by July.  Worth noting in keeper and deep NL-Only leagues.  Earlier in the offseason, I went over my Brett Jackson fantasy.  I wrote it while watching Luck with the closed captioning on, so I could read what the hell Nick Nolte was saying.

Garrett Jones – Looks like he will be the starting 1st baseman for the Pirates vs. righties.  As I mentioned in the 1st basemen to target post, in deep, daily leagues, you can get some value there.  Or not.  For instance, “Hey, horse, here’s water.”  Horse, “Neigh.”

Jacob Turner – Going through a dead arm period.  The doctors weren’t sure what the problem was at first, then Haley Joel Osment said he saw Turner’s arm.

We’re a few weeks from Opening Day, and the outlook on prospects for 2012 is taking shape.  As usual, it’s important to take a prudent approach with these guys.  Prospect-happy drafting is not wise.  Most of these names won’t make major impacts for another year or two – if ever.  Even so, it’s a good idea to get to know ‘em.  I tried to limit this list to guys I thought would contribute this year.  Rankings are weighted heavily in terms of realistic 2012 playing time, but I’m factoring each player’s projectable ceiling as well.  I’ll be following this post with my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2013 & Beyond.  That one will run on Sunday.  For now, this:

1. Matt Moore | SP, Rays:  Immediate fantasy ace potential.  Read Grey’s Matt Moore outlook here.

2. Yu Darvish | SP, Rangers:  An argument could be made for Darvish to lead this list.  He’s a safer option than Moore to pitch a full season, but I believe Yu’s upside falls a bit short.  Check out my Rangers Minor League Review for more on Darvish.

3. Yoenis Cespedes | OF, Athletics:  He’s already impressing folks in the Cactus League.  Grey projects him at 65/20/80/.250/12.

4. Jesus Montero | C, Mariners:  Miguel Olivo is still in the picture, but Montero should take over full-time duties before long.  Grey has him as a top-10 catcher option.  I definitely agree.

5. Devin Mesoraco | C, Reds:  Like the Montero-Olivo situation, Mesoraco still needs to beat out Ryan Hanigan for the regular role behind the plate.  Nice upside here. 

6. Bryce Harper | OF, Nationals:  Baseball’s best prospect likely arrives this season.  Grey already went over Harper’s sleeper status:  he might be worth most as trade bait.

7. Zack Cozart | SS, Reds:  Cozart has the starting shortstop role effectively locked down in Cincy.  For more on both him and Mesoraco, check out my Reds post from last week.

8. Yonder Alonso | 1B, Padres:  Yes, the move to Petco hurts his value significantly.  Even so, he should be starting at first all year, making him useful in deep leagues or NL-Only.  More on Alonso in my San Diego post, here.

9. Trevor Bauer | SP, Diamondbacks:  Tim Lincecum 2.0?  He hasn’t blown anybody away this spring, but I’m excited about Bauer’s potential and I was tempted to rank him higher.  Read more on Bauer in my D-Backs post from earlier this offseason.

10. Julio Teheran | SP, Braves:  Teheran was pummeled in his spring debut, but bounced back nicely.  He has outstanding stuff and the Braves haven’t ruled him out of the opening day rotation just yet.

11. Addison Reed | RP, White Sox:  The White Sox have uncertainty surrounding the closer role and Reed could be the guy to step into that position this year.  R.J. wrote earlier this week that he expects Matt Thornton to be used in high-leverage setup situations.  That would seemingly leave Reed to collect the save opps.

12. Mike Trout | OF, Angels:  If he truly had a shot at playing this year he’d rank top five.  He doesn’t.  Still, he deserves to be mentioned here because he’s absolutely ready if there is a need.

13. Anthony Rizzo | 1B, Cubs:  The new Cubs front office has been adamant about letting Rizzo marinate for another year in Triple-A.  If that’s indeed the plan, then I should probably be saving Rizzo for my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2013 & Beyond post.  Clearly that’s not what I’ve done.  I doubt Bryan LaHair can cut it in the bigs – not even on the Cubs.  I expect to see Rizzo manning first base at Wrigley for the second half of 2012.

14. Brad Peacock | SP, Athletics:  Big upside guy with a good shot at making the A’s rotation.  Grey & Rudy took him in the 22nd round of the inaugural LABR Mixed league draft.

15. Jarrod Parker | SP, Athletics:  Grey wrote about Parker after he was traded to the A’s in December.  He should be stronger than ever now, a season-and-a-half removed from Tommy John.  He and Peacock could be an exciting backend to the Oakland rotation.

16. Drew Pomeranz | SP, Rockies:  Pomeranz left yesterday’s spring start with tightness in his hip.  This isn’t good.  Two days ago he seemed like a lock to earn a role in the Colorado rotation.  Now, not so much.  The injury might be minor – certainly a situation to monitor.  See my Rockies post for more on Promeranz.

17. Jacob Turner | SP, Tigers:  Turner has struggled with control thus far in camp.  Looks like he’ll be opening the season in Triple-A, but it shouldn’t be long ’til he’s making an impact with Detroit.  Read more on Turner in my Tigers post.

18. Leonys Martin | OF, Rangers:  The toolsy outfielder is battling for a starting role in camp, and he’s been impressive so far.  He might have an edge on the competition thanks to his defense, but his offense is still a work in progress.  Read more on Martin in my Rangers post.

19. Shelby Miller | SP, Cardinals:  With Chris Carpenter’s health in question, the Cardinals are holding auditions for the fifth spot in their rotation.  After two poor outings this spring, though, it seems Miller won’t make the cut.  Should the Cards’ injury problems persist, however, Miller could be up and he could be extremely effective this year.  More likely, though, he makes his impact in 2013.  More about Miller, here.

20. Danny Hultzen | SP, Mariners: The M’s have optioned Hultzen to Triple-A, but he’s still a good bet to crack their rotation at some point this year.  The #2 overall pick last June should be added in all formats upon arrival.  Grey & Rudy recently drafted him, so you know he’s good.

21. Tyler Skaggs | SP, Diamondbacks:  Skaggs is dealing with a sore shoulder issue in camp, but he made his last appearance without issue.  The 20-year-old likely begins 2012 in Triple-A, but he’s certainly a candidate for a mid-season call up.  See my D’backs post for more on Skaggs.

22. Hisashi Iwakuma | SP, Mariners:  At 30 years old, he’s hardly a prospect in the typical sense.  Iwakuma is pretty well locked into a starting role, however, and that’s certainly valuable considering the Safeco-effect.

23. Brett Jackson | OF, Cubs:  Jackson is off to a exciting start in the Cactus League.  If he can keep it up, he’ll have a shot at arriving in the bigs sooner than I anticipated.

24. Joe Benson | OF, Twins:  The Twins’ best hitting prospect still has a chance to leave camp with the big club.  Check out my Twins post for more on Benson.

25. Lance Lynn | SP, Cardinals:  Lynn looks like the favorite to be take the fifth spot in the St. Louis rotation.  He was fantastic in relief down the stretch last season.  We’ll see if he can carry that momentum into this year as a starter.  More on Lynn in my Cardinals post.

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

Say ‘Tony Campana in Centerfield’. Now say it again, only this time with an Antonio Banderas accent, a la Puss in Boots. There was no reason for any of that, I just want to see how many people will now get that stuck in their head every time they read his name.

Technically, I’m cheating as Grey has already mentioned him in brief in his Fantasy Schmohawk post about Michael Bourn. However, I do feel there’s room to wax poetic about this speed demon. Tony currently does not have a starting role in the Chicago Cubs outfield. For some reason Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus & Alfonso Soriano are slated to receive the brunt of anger for another season of losing.  Plus, let us not forget the Cubs current main prospect – Brett Jackson – will most likely get his shot later this summer.  So where in this scenario can we see Tony getting the PT for those SB?  Well, that outfield isn’t exactly full of spring chickens with the youngest of the three being DeJesus at 32.  So what is the opposite of a spring chicken and what happens to them, you ask?  I’m pretty sure it’s an old bird and usually their goose is cooked.  Hrm, I think my fowl analogies (fowlogies?) are getting mixed.  Let’s move on.

The Cubs have been trying their best to shop Alfonso all winter to no avail.  Both David & Marlon profile as a good 4th outfielders and could find their way out of Chicago via trade to a contender by summer for outfield depth.  And another thing, who exactly is going to hit leadoff for these Cubs?  If the experiment stays true, it’s looking like the man with 51 career stolen bases out of 97 attempts, DeJesus.  I know no one funks with DeJesus but even if he were R. Kelly and believed he could fly, his age and career profile has him stealing less than 5 bags.

With all the chatter about Dee Gordon being one of the fastest men in baseball, it’s funny how people have forgotten about Campana.  In 155 plate appearances last year, he had 24 stolen bases.  If you do what I say never to do and extrapolate that over 500 plate appearances, you get 77 steals and lotsa extra numbers to the right of the decimal point that don’t add up to a 78th one.  That’s Gordon speed that you can find in the ‘ND’ part of the draft.  Fangraphs has both Dee and Tony’s ‘Spd’ rating - something best described here – in the ‘very fast’ tier as they both rated above a 7 in 2011.  Though it would be nice to see him strike out less, he has near a 4:1 ground ball to fly ball rate, giving him ample opportunity to put his assets to work.  In a full season, I’d conservatively give him a .270 average and about 45 stolen bases.