Fantasy Baseball Advice

Kevin Gregg was handed his 6th blown save yesterday.  He’s tizzerrible.  I won’t defend him.  Your honor, no questions at this time.  I just don’t see the Orioles bothering to switch things up.  They’re defeated.  Look into their eyes and you see the shadow of Cal Ripken Jr. weeping with his back to you.  His shoulders go up and down and his sniffling, that’s how you can tell he’s crying.  Boog Powell asked that his BBQ stand at Camden Yards replace the pork and beans with pork and tiny violins.  Maybe Jim Johnson will see saves, but I wouldn’t drink that Kool-Aid.  Maybe Mike Gonzalez finally reverts to the donkeycorn he once was.  Maybe Kevin Gregg gets new athletic eyewear that doesn’t make him look like a dork.  The O’s average about 4 save opportunities per month.  I’d hold one of them and that’s it, preferably Gregg, though that might be the wrong choice of words.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jordan Walden – Reports are saying he’s tired.  Well, then go take a nap.  Maybe he’s exhausted from carrying around two last names all year.  If the Angels need to work around his fatigue, they’ll probably go with Takahashi or Downs.  Order is a coin flip.  Or as Al Pacino would say, “No, your order is a coin flip!”

Justin Morneau – He’s officially pulling a Kotchman as he suffers from mild concussion symptoms.  It’s as if his brain is a chicken wing joint and it just goes up and down the Scoville scale.  If I were him, I’d dip my head in bleu cheese after batting practice.

Michael Pineda – The Mariners have decided to shut down the rookie after 3 more starts.  I can’t believe they’re giving up their chance at a winning season.  How are they going to win 24 of their next 28 while keeping their 2nd best pitcher on the bench?  Fun aside:  his anagram is Pinhead Malice, which would be an awesome rock group name.

Brett Cecil – 6 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Seems like every year he just sets himself up to be a sleeper the following year.  It’s his special purpose.

Brett Lawrie – 1-for-4 with his 6th homer, a day after stealing two bags.  That sound you hear is fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) rubbing their hands together in anticipation of drafting Lawrie next year.

Jair Jurrjens – 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Wearing a ship captain’s hat, the Fangraphs Database yelled, “Regression, right ahead!”

Wade Miley – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  When he was first called up, I said I’d watch him for mixed leagues.  Well, I watched, and, well, whatevs.  I’m not risking my teams precious ratios on him unless I absolutely must gamble.

Stephen Strasburg – Will return next Tuesday, i.e., the day the Nationals become relevant again.  Livan Hernandez, “You know, I resent that.  Also, are you going to finish that lamb chop?”

Danny Espinosa – 1-for-3 with his 19th homer.  Has now hit in 6 straight games, which is a very optimistic way of saying he has one hit in each of his last 6 games.

Mike Morse – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs, 2 runs and his 23rd homer while he bats .318.  His BABIP is pretty high which makes me think next year when you have to draft him before the last rounds, he’s gonna disappoint.  As Shakira sang, BABIPs don’t lie.

Javier Vazquez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Was it too much to ask for him to do this in April before I dropped him from all my teams? I will now go step on the business end of a rake.

Mike Stanton – 3-for-4 with a slam & legs.  His dad reminds me of Jim Leyland.

Hanley Ramirez – Left his rehab start after his shoulder acted up.  It didn’t have the range for Hamlet.

Mike Trout – 2-for-4, 5 RBIs and two homers as he beat up on the M’s and Mike Carp in what I’ll dub as The Fish Bowl.  Trout has homers now in his last two games.  The only problem is the Angels have played other games in that time while Trout’s sat on the bench.  With only two starts in the last week, it’s hard to fully get behind him.

Henry Sosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Did he splash water in his face after each inning a’la Sammy?  Or stick a needle in his ass?  This start comes after a 6 IP, 1 ER last time out.  Next time out could be 4 IP, 5 ER.  I would stay away.  Ixnay on the Enryhay.

Jose Altuve – 2-for-5 with a slam & legs.  He’s also hitting .313 in his 150 ABs so far. With his position eligibility, I’d definitely take the flyer if he’s out there.

Doug Fister – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Had a perfect game going into the 7th inning.  Jim Joyce, “Don’t look at me!”

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-5, and now has homers in back-to-back games and 4 homers in the last week.  He’s not remotely exciting but he is currently hitting so there’s that.

Andre Ethier – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with his 11th homer.  I’d say Colletti lit a fire under him but then he’d complain of a burned bum and wanna sit out on a block of ice.

Raul Ibanez – 3-for-5 with his 17th homer while being a total Gomer to Mayberry.

Ryan Howard – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 28th and 29th homers.  Would love to see a ten homer month of September from Howard.  Cust kayin’.

Tim Stauffer – 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Wait, what?  Oh, God, no!  Wait, no, c’mon.  Really?  *sobs, shakes fist at the sky* Why?!  He’s lucky if all I do is drop him from all my teams.

Trevor Cahill – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Cahill always seemed to elicit the most feedback in the comments whenever I ragged on him.  “No, Grey, he deserves a parade and you’re gonna make the float out of your criticism!”  That’s except when he’s not pitching well.  Where did all the smarter than thou’s go?  Probably onto fantasy football.

Alejandro De Aza – 1-for-3, 4 RBIs with his 3rd homer.  His bag is, uh, stealing bags.  He’s also hitting over .350 in the last week.  Thankfully he’s yet to show up at a game dressed up like Adam Goldberg.  What was Lady Gaga doing at the VMAs?  Did I suddenly lose touch or was that a bad SNL sketch, like the ones at the end of the show, that just went on too long?  Or was she auditioning for a role in a Cassavetes movie?

Jason Motte – The newly-appointed-maybe closer worked the 8th inning while Salas got the save.  Yup.

Jack Hannahan – 3-for-4 and is now batting over .400 in the last week.  Where does he find the time between this and saving games for the Pirates?

Jeanmar Gomez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Could be a Cleveland streamer at any moment, i.e., stay away.  BTW, this was overhead in the clubhouse yesterday, “Jeanmar, may I ask if you’re Flemish?”  “Why do you ask?”  “Because saying your name makes me hock up phlegm.”

Matt LaPorta – Was demoted to Triple-A.  That’s right, LaPorta was shown the door.

Brett Cecil – Cecil grew up right where I live and pitched for my high school’s big rival: Dematha (a school that produced David Aldridge, Keith Bogans, Mike Brey, James Brown, Adrian Dantley, Joe Forte, Paul Rabil, Brian Westbrook and others). Cecil has the chance to be the best baseball player to ever come out of the school.

In 2007, the Blue Jays made Cecil the 38th overall selection in the draft. He pitched a bit in A- ball for the Jays in 2007, showing some promising signs: 10.15 K/9 rate, just 1.99 BB/9 and a 1.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts.

In 2008, he split time between A+, AA and AAA, pitching quite well at each stop. The majority of damage came at AA. In 18 starts, he posted a 10.08 K/9 rate, 2.67 BB/9 rate, 2.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

It surprised no one that he would start 2009 in AAA. However, his success, or lack thereof, was surprising. His Ks went way down (5.88), his walks went up (3.49) and his ratios suffered: 5.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, the Jays, one of the smartest organizations in the American League East (and therefore baseball), realized that his strand rate (52.6%) was ridiculous, so they brought him up to the show for the majority of 2009.

While his season would look ugly (5.30 ERA, 5.37 FIP and 1.65 WHIP), he got his K-rate up to 6.65 and his walk rate was at 3.66. Meanwhile his BABIP (.338) and HR/FB rate (14.8%) seemed to suggest he was just darn unlucky.

The Jays and some fantasy owners expected a good step forward in 2010 and we got it. While his Ks went down a tad (6.10), his swinging strike percentage went up to 9.2%, his line drive rate went down and his ground balls went up. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.293) and HR/FB rate (8.7%) got closer to normal. At the end of the year, Cecil had a 4.22 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.33 WHIP spread across 28 starts.

This is where we are reminded that baseball is rarely a linear game. If you expected Cecil to take another step forward in 2011, you were dead wrong. He gave up five or six runs in three of his first five starts and had a 6.86 ERA at the end of April.

Cecil was dispatched back to AAA. While his Ks returned (7.21) and his walks went down (2.75), they weren’t exactly reflected in his ratios (5.26 ERA and 1.44).

Still, either the Jays believed in the underlying numbers or really needed an arm as Cecil returned to the majors on June 30, and promptly gave up six runs in 6.1 IPs against the lowly Pirates. A small matter of solace is that he managed to strike out six Buccos. At that point, his ERA sat at 7.24.

Well, remember when I said baseball wasn’t a linear game? Since June 30, in 10 starts and 70.1 IPs, Cecil has a 3.33 ERA and 46 Ks to only 20 walks. I love me some Brett Cecil. He is just 25 and already has 360+ MLB innings. I think he’ll finish the year strong and post 25-30 more Ks. You might want to avoid some of his tougher matchups, but, otherwise, I’m fine using him.

Felipe Paulino – In 2001, as an 18-year-old, Paulino was signed by the Houston Astros. He’d feel his way through Rookie Ball from 2003 – 2004 until 2005, when he pitched 55 innings spread across A- and A ball. He would look damn good too: 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Clearly, he was ready for A+…or, not as his Ks dwindled (6.48) and his walks skyrocketed (4.20). There was no silver lining in those numbers either, as his FIP (4.66) was actually worse than his terribly mediocre ERA (4.35).

Still, he got a promotion in 2007 to AA ball and got his swagger back: 8.84 K/9, 3.94 BB/9 and reasonable ratios (3.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). He’d start three games that year in the majors and appear in two others. His appearances would be utterly forgetful if they weren’t so tragically bad (7.11 ERA with a 20.8% HR/FB rate).

The roller coaster of a career would get bumpier in 2008, as he missed the majority of the season, tallying just 0.2 IPs in AAA. Undeterred, he was back in AAA in 2009. While his cosmetics looked good (3.12 ERA), he was walking everyone and their mom (5.97 BB/9), yet the Astros had no problem promoting him to the majors. While his Ks (8.57) looked promising and he appeared to get his walks (3.41) sort of in order, he still gave up a ton of long balls and line drives. At this point, it looked like Paulino was going to straddle the line between average reliever and below average starter.

His 2010 season did nothing to clear this up. The Ks remained, but he walked a ton more guys. However he was also the benefit of good and bad luck. While he had a totally serviceable line drive rate his, BABIP was .331 and, even with a low HR/FB rate, his strand rate was near criminal (58.5%). His unpalatable ERA (5.11) and FIP (3.44) weren’t in the same zip code. Of course, FIP takes into account his 3.6% HR/FB rate (which isn’t real sustainable), so when you look at xFIP (which normalizes the HR/FB rate), you get 4.36. Still that’s pretty darn good for a guy who can strike out a bunch of players.

Unfortunately, the Astros, in their infinite wisdom, didn’t see much in Paulino, shipping him to Colorado for Clint Barmes.  (I assume in an effort to motivate Jeff Keppinger or the other dozen or so replacement level middle infielders they had.)

The Rockies looked poise to give Paulino the Jorge de la Rosa treatment – however he couldn’t find his way into the rotation and had his contract sold to the Royals (a potential reverse de la Rosa move?).

Paulino has started 15 games for the Royals and has posted a 7.85 K/9 rate, 3.27 BB/9 rate, 3.83 ERA and 3.42 FIP). He is getting less solid contact with the Royals, yet his BABIP remains high. He is still getting a great swinging strike percentage which can lead to fantastic K games. In fact, over his last 10 starts and 61.1 IPs, he a 4.26 ERA and 55 Ks – not too shabby.

He’ll never likely be a sub-4.00 pitcher and there will be some ugly games when he walks the entire team. However, his ERA should hover in the mid-4.00s and provide a bevy of Ks. In deep leagues, I’m all over that kind of production.

Edwin Encarnacion – Encarnacion, or E5, was a ninth round pick of the Texas Rangers in 2000. However, before he could get his feet wet, he was shipped, along with Ruben Mateo, to Cincinnati for a reliever named Rob Bell.

In 2002, at A ball, Encarnacion looked awesome: 17 HRs, and a .282/.338/.458 line – sure the plate discipline (108 Ks to just 40 walks) would hurt his average development, but that’s fine with that kind of power.

Throughout the minors, Encarnacion just hit for power and hit for a decent average. From 2003 – 2007, he never batted below .272 at any level and currently has a .278/.345/.425 at AA and .329/.396/.565 line at AAA.

He earned near fulltime duties with the Reds in 2006 and rewarded them for their foresight with a .276/.359/.473 and 15 homers in 117 games. He wasn’t swinging and missing a ton (8.7%), was posting a fine line drive rate (21.1%) and his strike out rate (16.7%) and walk rate (8.8%) weren’t detrimental. Add all those up and he was going to be a major league regular with fine power for years to come.

Or not…as he struggled immensely out of the gate in 2007. At the end of April, he was batting .221/.294/.260 and was sitting at .250/.327/.357 at the end of May. At that point he had just three dingers and he began to lose playing time to Ryan Freel to free up space in the outfield for a former Rays prospect named Josh Hamilton. E5 was sent down to the minors on May 9, but would return two weeks later. After he returned, Encarnacion went .307/.370/.476 with 15 HRs in 108 games.

With Hamilton traded, 2008 was clearly going to be the year for Encarnacion to solidify himself as a solid MLB regular. While he hit 25 bombs, he batted just .251/.340/.466 and committed an ungodly 23 errors. Encarnacion was striking out a tad more but was also walking a bit more. For some reason, though, he wasn’t hitting the ball with much authority. His FB rate spiked, perhaps as he was trying to jack everything that came to him. This hurt his BABIP and destroyed his ability to get on base.

After going .209/.333/.374 in 43 games for the Reds in 2009, they shipped him, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. While E5 hit a few more homers for the Jays, he’d perform worse, stumbling to a .240/.306/.442 line.

His 2010 was little different – Encarnacion fielded poorly, hit some homers, but couldn’t get on base.

The following year seemed to be no different – at the end of June, 2011, he sat at .250/.283/.404. Encarnacion seemed finished. However, since that time he has gone .304/.388/.527 with nine homers in 50 games. He has struck out just 35 times and walked 23 times. While this is a small sample, it’s a huge step in the right direction if it can continue.

Encarnacion can hit .265-.280 the rest of the way with 5+ HRs. He’s good cheap power in a good deep lineup. Previously, I’ve wanted nothing to do with Encarnacion – I’m about to change my tune.

I started writing this week and kept getting distracted by the notion of a “tease” starting pitcher.  These are guys we all see available every week at the top of our waiver wire.  For some reason they hop on and off rosters, faster than the Easter Bunny.  They all for some reason have an attractive quality, whether it be a great matchup, a previous decent start or just a general boyish quality that we find irresistible.  We see the numbers they produce and sometimes numbers tell a different story than what really is going on for fantasy purposes.  In the end, it comes down to picking a starting pitcher in a must win week is the same place that $30 steak goes to digest.  So with the eve of playoffs upon us, here are the lower end 2 start options for the week.  Good luck and happy fantasying. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change, especially with Irene running havoc.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/31
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan
Chris Capuano vs. Fla – Hensley
Ted Lilly vs. SD – LeBlanc
James McDonald @ Hou – Happ
Josh Collmenter vs. Col – Rogers

9/1
Fausto Carmona vs. Oak – Gonzalez
Luis Perez @ Bal – Matusz

9/2
Bruce Chen vs. Cle – Masterson
Guillermo Moscoso vs. Sea – pineda
Jeff Karstens @CHC – Dempster

Charlie Morton (@Hou vs. Sosa, @CHC vs. Wells) Was pitching well up until Thursday.  3 ER in previous 29 innings.  Jersey guys always get a little extra juice from me, hey, I’m a homer. Go root for your own state.

Brett Cecil (@Bal vs. Reyes, @NYY vs. Sabathia) We all root for the glasses, whether we admit it or not we do.  Is a typical tease fantasy pitcher, shows the goods, does bad gets dropped, rinse and repeat for next scheduled start.

Wade Davis (@Tor vs. Romero, Bal vs. Simon) ERA right at 3 in last 4 starts, and showing better K rate. Pitches better at the Trop and I gamble more at the Trop, so the Baltimore start looks like a winner to me. This lesson in transitive theory is brought to you by Gamblers Anonymous.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, Phi vs. Hamels) If consistency were pants, he would be wearing cargo jorts. Recently moved into the top 30 all-time in K’s, congrats.  We come for the K’s and cry when we get everything else.

Livan Hernandez (@Atl vs. Lowe, NYM vs. Pelfrey) I don’t know if anyone watches his starts, but he is fun to watch. Throws slower than his jersey number.  Is the Latino Houdini of pitchers, better known  to those in the know as El Mago.

Doug Fister (KC vs. Francis, CHW vs. Buehrle) Since trade he is 3-1, with an ERA in the mid 3’s.  Toss that record out the window, make sure the window is open first, genius.  It’s not next year but a full year in Detriot with that offense and he is a 15 game winner.

Brandon McCarthy (@Cle vs. Tomlin, Sea vs. Vargas) Loved his work in Mannequin.  Is in the growing trend this week of tease pitchers, cusp rosterable guys that matchup-wise are more attractive.

Homer Bailey (Phi vs. Worley, STL vs. Garcia) The Iliad, a funny catchphrase and a civil rights activist.  See Homers have actually done something good in history.  What you see is what you get, he isn’t the former top pitching spec we all want him to be.  Sorry, I hear hearts breaking all over the Midwest.

Derek Lowe (Was vs. Livan, LA vs. Kuroda) Team is 20 games over .500 and he has 23% of the losses.  Yeah, that sounds awesome from a fantasy perspective.  So grab your sneakers and chase those wins.

Blake Beavan (Ana vs. Pineiro, @Oak vs. Cahill) On here for 1 reason, he has beat both these teams previously.  Tends to get beat up by good hitting teams, which for the less in the know means his secondary pitches aren’t inspiring.  Doesn’t K enough for full fantasy usefulness.

You know what they call three 4-baggers in New York?  An A-Rod post-game party.  It’s a good thing Clorox is headquartered in Oakland because Billy Beane is going to want to rinse his eyes with bleach after this game.   Russell Martin went 5-for-5, 3 runs, 6 RBIs and 2 homers (one grand slam), Grandy hit a grannie going 2-for-4, 4 runs, 5 RBIs and Cano added in one of his own with 5 RBIs.  A video of this game should be shown next time the issue of a salary cap comes up at the Winter Meetings.  Russell Martin has 17 homers on the year.  Even if all of them were Pesci Pole assisted, it would still be a solid year.  Then throw in 8 steals and decent runs and RBIs, and it’s no wonder Alyssa Milano fields his fly balls.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jim Thome – Luckily, he got to enjoy his 600th home run on the Twins.  What an event!  Was like Geraldo Rivera finding a second bottle of whiskey.  Thome continues his ride on the casino bus to the Indians.  How appropriate.  To continue the gambling comparison, right now the Indians are like the guy at the ATM taking out money he doesn’t have to double down on the Pass Line at a cold craps table.  Hey, Indians, it was a good run, but you’re throwing good money after bad.  Go grab a $9.99 steak dinner and bark obscenities at tourists.  You’re not making the playoffs anymore.  Thome’s not changing that.  As for fantasy, Thome gives the occasional homer, not much else.  Um, okay.

Francisco Liriano – Headed to the Disgraceful List for the 2nd time this year.  To keep this PG-13, thanks for ruining my fantasy teams this year, you fargin’ icehole.  I will forever refrain-cisco.

Jemile Weeks – 3-for-5, 2 steals.  He’s struggled a bit recently with his bat, but he’s still capable of the steals so if you need that I’d hold tight.

Scott Sizemore – 4-for-4 on Wednesday and a homer yesterday.  I’d say he’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but he won’t be.

Rich Harden – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Ks are there but the up and down starts make me want to avoid him.  Speaking of up and down, I told Rudy he should give a listen to the Kanye/Jay-Z song, “Otis,” and he asked why they wrote a song about the inventor of the elevator.

Wade Miley – 6 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  This comes after a 4 IP, 5 ER start against the Braves.  The potential for Ks is there, so is the potential to get roofied.

Brian McCann – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  After me ranking him in the preseason as the number one catcher for three years, it looks like he’s finally made good.  Sometimes I’m just too prescient (Word of the Day!) for my own good.

Michael Bourn – 4-for-5, 2 runs and 1 RBI.  Maybe I’m greedy, but when a guy like Bourn gets four hits and no steals, I can’t helped feel a wee bit gypped.  My apologies to all of our gypsy readers.

Brandon Beachy – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  3.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 128 Ks in 114 1/3 IP.  I told everyone to grab him in every league, to toot my own horn (though if I could actually toot my own horn, I wouldn’t have time for fantasy baseball).

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Now has 29 homers on the year with a .220 average.  If Mini Donkey could just get his average up to the .250 range, he’d be a thing of beauty.  But I guess that’s always been the Reynolds rap.

Ryan Adams – 4 for his last 7.  The Orioles new 2B is just like the rock musician, Ryan Adams.  He has a little bit of pop, strikes out a lot and likes having sex with Mandy Moore.  The only difference is that the musician Ryan Adams actually gets to have sex with Mandy Moore.

Adrian Gonzalez – Now has, like, 17 homers in the last three days as him and Ellsbury lock horns for MVP votes.  That should help fill 42 minutes of a Sportscenter.

Carlos Quentin – Out until next week with shoulder pain that has him feeling less than manly.  You know what makes me feel manly?  Rubbing banana pudding on my chest and running through the zoo.

Brett Cecil – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Morrow and him are all over the map from start to start.  Gem, coal, coal, gem… Then you get the occasional 6 IP, 5 ER with 9 Ks which, I suppose, is the blood diamond.

Alexi Ogando – 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I wouldn’t be surprised if his arm is tired.  BTW, somehow a tired arm is worse than an arm that falls asleep.  Weird!

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-3 with his 5th homer in 21 games.  Prior to last night, he went 0-for-14 with 6 Ks.  Has 27 Ks in 21 games.  I think Goldschmidt is gonna fit in perfectly with the Diamondhacks.

Doug Fister – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now one earned run in his last fourteen innings and only one terrible start in his last ten.  Fister’s only drawback is he doesn’t punch out many hitters, ironically.

Austin Jackson – 1-for-3 with a slam & legs and his 133th strikeout to go with a .306 OBP.  Somewhere Rickey Henderson is mumbling to himself in 3rd person.

Brad Penny – It came out yesterday that he criticized Sean Rodriguez for running hard on a routine fly ball.  Penny also screams at players for being clean-shaven and having better metabolisms.

This will be my first week playing fantasy baseball without my hero, Hightower from Police Academy. God speed, big man. So the deadline came and went. Pretty unexciting stuff from a fantasy prospective. The fake baseball trade deadline is approaching by week’s end, time to analyze that roster of yours and ask “Can I make a run and if so where and with what guys?” It’s also important to think of next year for keeper leagues, take a chance on a guy who someone may value less for next year than you may. Gambles in fantasy are what pay the bills, folks. So good luck on getting your roster ready for playoff battle. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/10
Erik Bedard @ Min – Blackburn
Mark Buehrle @ Bal – Hunter
Mike Leake vs. Col – Nicasio

8/11
Cory Luebke @ NYM – Niese
Joe Saunders vs. Hou – Myers
Jeff Niemann vs. KC – Duffy

8/12
Dillon Gee @ Ari – Kennedy
Chris Narveson vs. Pit – Maholm
Brandon McCarthy vs. Tex – Wilson

Jason Marquis (Hou vs. Lyles, NYM vs. Capuano) First impressions are everything, 7 ER against the team you’re trying to catch. I do like him slightly better in Arizona, weaker hitting division, better ROS schedule.

Brett Cecil (Oak vs. Harden , Ana vs. Haren) Since his return from Disgraceful List, 3-3, 3.38 ERA and 41 K’s in 8 starts. Shows glimpses of fantasy goodness, is a next year fave for me (I said that preseason this year also) even if it’s through rose-colored glasses.

Doug Fister (@Cle vs. Masterson, @Bal vs. Britton) Should be owned! I can sit here and throw numbers at you, but I don’t want to hold your hand. Holding hands is weird for strangers. Fister is the centerfold for Sabermetric Monthly for August.

Philip Humber (@Bal vs. Britton, KC vs. Francis) Ever wonder what it really feels like to hit the fantasy wall? Well, Phil is waiting to take your calls. May get you wins this week but at the expense of 5+ ERA.

Charlie Morton (@SF vs. Vogelsong, @Mil vs. Marcum) The Pirates’ ship is sinking.  Man the life rafts!  Is a WHIP disaster and, like his team, seems to be running on fumes. Is the Hydrox to Doc’s Oreo.

Esmil Rogers (@Cin vs. Willis, @Stl vs. Jackson) Needs to build some quality innings, but potential for a back end starter could be there. Any youngin’ needs to work on control so be leery of the WHIP abuse. Remember that love Nicasio got for like a day.  Yeah, they may be fantasy clones.

Chris Capuano (SD vs. LeBlanc, @Ari vs. Marquis) ERA is a little high for everyday use, but I like this guy. He has grit or moxy or groxy. Hey, Dr. Seuss made a living making up words. Though drugs were a lot stronger back then.

Homer Bailey (Col vs. Hammel, SD vs. Stauffer) Some people like him, others come to his defense in the comments. See start on 7/28/11. Any questions? If you could ever just be whelmed, Homer would take you there.

Mike Pelfrey (SD vs. Stauffer, @Ari vs. Hudson) You ever get in a groove while listening to Pandora? Then all of a sudden they sneak a Brian Adams song in there. Well Pelfrey to me is that song.  Skip and then listen to an ad from Pauly D.

Dontrelle Willis (Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) I wish fun was a fantasy category, D-Train would go first overall. Will never really be a fantasy asset, which makes me sad. Dispelling all rumors that I was the Gooch.