Kyle Farnsworth is headed to the DL. You know who called this one? No one. Geez, closers are dropping like it’s hot and they’re from the North Pole and can’t handle the heat. Hmm, that wasn’t so pithy. In the last week, we’ve lost Madson, Storen, Andrew Bailey, Frank Francisco. Though we got back Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Lidge, Henry Rodriguez, Sean Marshall, Melancon, Aceves, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, J.P. Howell and Fernando Rodney. It’s like a two-for-one trade-in deal where you give in a Rolls Royce and get back two doodie bubbles. “Doctor, my closers are all in the red!” “I don’t know if I can help. I’m just a doctor who studied at Harvard Medical School and was a Rhodes Scholar and other important scholarly pursuits. I’m not Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario. Or FML.” That’s a convo I overheard recently. For saves, tell Aetna that you want me. The shituation in Tampa Bay is pretty murky, but it sounds like Farnsworth is gonna miss a lot of time. The issues he’s having he had last September. You don’t usually go six months with recurring elbow pain as a pitcher, unless your name is Joey Devine. Peralta would be my first grab, in the non-sexual way. He had saves last year in Farnsy’s absence; he should get saves this year. My second grab would be Lovey and Thurston Howell’s son, J.P. He could see the majority of the situational saves since he’s a lefty. Then I’d grab Jake McGee because he’s the closer of the future and he has a cool name. Sounds like a character Mel Gibson would’ve played back in the early 90′s before he hated Jews and sobriety. Finally, I could see Fernando Rodney sneaking into the save picture because he has that ever elusive closer experience, but his experience is rotten with stank, so I wouldn’t grab him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:
Sike! Before we get into the roundup, just wanted to announce the 4th podcast in the (greater than 3) series. During this podcast, the winner of our theme song contest is announced. The winner should comment with their contact info. Anyway II, here’s the podcast and roundup:
Frank Francisco – Will be fine for Opening Day, according to the Mets doctors. Damn, almost said that with a straight face. No, seriously, he should be fine… Dah! Again, I tried. Do with that info what you will. Let’s just say, I would’ve dropped Parnell or Rauch for Peralta or Melancon, but I wouldn’t drop the Mets set-up men just for s’s and g’s.
Andrew Bailey – Headed for surgery as Bailey’s Party of Five fingers received terrible news. He’ll be out for 3 to 4 months, at least. I’d add Melancon and Aceves, in that order. For more, click –> Andrew Bailey fantasy or scroll down. No, your other down.
Drew Storen – Hmm… This is just all closer news all the time here, huh? Sounds like Storen should be fine by mid-April, but I’ll believe it when I see him record five saves in a row. Sorry, I’m a cynic.
John Lannan – This is funny to me, and by that I mean not really funny, all spring the Nats were trying to trade Lannan. They didn’t find any takers — shocker! — so they said they would put him in their rotation. Now they optioned him to the minors. Here’s what actually went down, the Nats, “We decided we don’t want to trade Lannan, we won’t him in our rotation.” Then thinking they shut off the mic, “Hopefully clubs will want to trade for him now that we said he’s good enough to be in our rotation. Otherwise, I’ll just run him over with my… Wait, does this red light mean the mic is on or off?”
Jose Bautista – Has mild groin soreness, which sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn star. Bautista should be fine for Opening Day.
Brett Cecil – Was sent down to Double-A New Hampshire, whose team motto is “Pitch Well Or Die.”
Felix Hernandez – Was throwing 89-90 MPH last week and said, “Really, it’s Spring Training, man. I’m fine. I was trying to be like Jamie Moyer.” That quote makes me love F-Her.
Tsuyoshi Wada - Headed to the 15-day DL. But I hardly Tsuyoshinoya.
Daniel Descalso – Will start at second base for the Cards on Opening Day, after Tyler Greene was announced as the starter. I thought La Russa retired. This is liable to be a timeshare, so whoever owns these two players will have high member fees.
Alfredo Simon – Signed by the Reds. The Reds were excited to have a righty in their bullpen, saying, “Finally, we have someone that can murder lefties.”
Adam Dunn – Robin Ventura said he’s leaning towards Dunn in the three hole, saying, “Even though he might strike out a little bit…” That’s like saying, “I’m going with sandpaper in the two hole even though it may scratch a bit.”
This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams. On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some. Now humor me. There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Peavy. I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post. Let’s see some names I like. Please.” The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.” McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP. As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys. Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?” 2012 Projections: 8-11/3.50/1.17/140
62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP. I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it. Stauffer is a Hodgepadre. Start him at home and sit him on the road. He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him. 2012 Projections: 8-10/3.80/1.24/135
63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.” I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly. Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants. There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect. He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9). If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late. For his price, it’s probably worth it. 2012 Projections: 11-8/3.85/1.18/160
64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below? Don’t. Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy. Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys. Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either. Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me. Hey now! 2012 Projections: 11-7/3.65/1.19/160
65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable. Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy. Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes. If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids. I would never say that though. I’m way above that! Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems. For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies. Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap! 2012 Projections: 10-8/3.75/1.21/130
66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Jackson. I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.” Last year didn’t really make sense. Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball. I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball. But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong. He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States. Maybe he can repeat it. More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses. 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.26/140
67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field. So why is Niese in a positive tier? Thanks, clunky expository question! He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher. Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better. All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout. 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.32/160
68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins. You shouldn’t even try. It is totally pointless. But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley. You are not going to get wins with Norris. You will get some walks and nice Ks. I kinda want Norris on every team. Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign. 2012 Projections: 7-9/3.80/1.32/190
69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing). If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success. 2012 Projections: 13-8/3.75/1.22/135
70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year. His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9. I’ve seen worse stats. Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats. I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through. Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres. 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.90/1.33/190
71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally. Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden. Great addition for the Nats’ rotation. For fantasy, it’s a’ight. Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing. Funny how that works. Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP. Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP. Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore. I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs. Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop. Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits. What a stunod. 2012 Projections: 11-10/3.80/1.35/160
72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Collmenter. I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.” See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular. I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular. But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier. When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc. Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out. It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees. When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for. For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7. Oh, well. I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012. AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive. 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.90/1.24/150
73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks. He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular. A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above. If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011: 4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP. That’s not even solid. At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular. 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.28/150
74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like? Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night. 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.70/1.28/100
75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started. Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees. If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!) 2012 Projections: 14-8/4.00/1.33/110
76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover. Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age. There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know. 2012 Projections: 9-11/4.00/1.26/155
77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that. He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer. I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going. I’m sure he’s used to the hate. Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer. 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.27/130
78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey? Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size. Too snug? That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve. Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP. No Ks there is a than, but no thans. 2012 Projections: 8-10/4.25/1.24/110
79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.” He got very lucky last year. No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for. He got lucky I didn’t kill him. 2012 Projections: 11-11/4.30/1.35/155
80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Volquez. I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.” (The projections in this tier are optimistic.) I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters. I thought that was odd. He’s only 26 years old. Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere. I saw Joel Pineiro. I saw Jason Hammel. I even saw Javier Vazquez. He retired. We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200? I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you. Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year. Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil. 2012 Projections: 12-9/4.00/1.30/145
After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:
Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television. Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late. His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year. His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7. His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games. Bailey is long overdue for a breakout. I’m saying sleeper and grab him late. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA. 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.70/1.28/130
Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer. It’s Sale all the way. Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him. (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.) I think Sale sees about 125 innings. 2012 Projections: 8-8/3.50/1.24/130
Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer. To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.” As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings. Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail. Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep. Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen. Or should I say bullpun.” And that’s me quoting me! I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter. 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.70/1.22/160
Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy. It’s January Grey’s favorite post. 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.60/1.30/170
Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters. Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200. So why isn’t he ranked higher? Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job. It’s not his job. If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job. Yo camino no trabajar! 2012 Projections: 8-12/3.75/1.33/200
Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier. This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys. I’m just not drafting them.” Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco. 2012 Projections: 12-9/4.25/1.29/150
Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will. Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together. 2012 Projections: 10-10/4.15/1.35/115
Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed. My money’s on the latter. 2012 Projections: 11-10/4.10/1.35/130
Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan. The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day. The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan. Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections. Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged. Now I want our bodies to. I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday. I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.” 2012 Projections: 7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)
In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players! Thanks for reading!
Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.
Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!
Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36th best pitcher in fantasy this year.
Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10th best 3b this season.
Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39th SP), I really hated on him (65th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.
Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?
Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.
Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.
James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.
Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.
Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.
Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12th best 2b and 9th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment. Aviles is the 38th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.
Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.
Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.
Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.
Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.
Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.
Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.
Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.
Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!
Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.
Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur were shut down for the year because the peasant Royals want to give Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson a full three days to show their worth. Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17. Terrific! Wonderful! Tonderific! But if you peak under the hood, things aren’t as they seem. His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors. His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up. His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected. He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals. With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average. That’s far from spectacular. That’s spectaculess. I just made that up; you like it? You use it. As for Frenchy, his line was 77/20/87/.285/22. Oh, well, that looks pretty normal– Wait a second, 22 steals?! Where the eff in the effhole did those come from? His previous high was 8. He always failed to take pitches like he needed some ADHD medicine, but now he’s running the bases like it too. “Sorry, first base coach, whatever your name is, can’t stay at 1st, gotta run, peace!” That’s Frenchy, and he can’t even stop for a period at the end of sentences; he only has time for commas. He’s always been a notorious bad ball hitter. This year Frenchy swung at 41% of balls outside the strike zone, which is actually high for him, and his percentage of balls swung at inside the strike zone was actually down. Only thing that changed this year, he made more contact with pitches outside of the strike zone. If that stops along with his whacked out of his mind stealing, he may use 2012 to revert to his old ways, so it’ll be hard to give Frenchy my arrondissement. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Psyche! Before we get into the roundup, I just wanted to announce a very good friend of mine is putting on a one man show in Los Angeles. If you go see the play, you may just run into yours truly and my significant other — my mustache. If you can’t make it to Los Angeles or if you’re in Los Angeles but afraid to leave your house, you can buy his book. Anyway II, the roundup:
Hunter Pence – 3-for-5 with his 21st homer. Hey, that homer can drink legally! After Pence sat out for three games with a sore knee, it was good to see him return, unless you had him on your bench like I did. Sonavabench!
Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his 29th, 30th and 31st home runs yesterday. For the Sox’s sake, it’s too bad he can’t pitch.
Francisco Liriano – 1/3 IP, 5 ER in middle relief. How’d he go from one of the best arms in the game to mop up duty? When Dr. James Andrews tells people 9 out of 10 pitchers agree with the good doctor, I think I know which one doesn’t agree. “I feel like Bruno Mars’s forehead, big and empty!” That’s Liriano talking through a translator.
Wilson Ramos – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three starts. I specify his last three starts, because the Nats have been sitting him every other game. It’s really important to get at-bats for Pudge, whose nickname wasn’t always ironic, and Jesus Flores? Rhetorical!
Stephen Strasburg – Nats announced he would have an innings limit next year. The GM said that innings limit has been semi-calculated. The equation he used was pretty straightforward: A Reinjured Strasburg = No Job.
Wade Davis – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks. Nice end to what’s been a pretty terrible season. His K-rate was atrocious and it wasn’t like he was getting unlucky with his 4.45 ERA. Usually the third year a starter is in the majors is when their breakthrough comes, which next year will be for Davis, but I don’t have high hopes here.
Jason Bay – Didn’t play Sunday and was pulled from Saturday’s game because of illness. Illness sounds like it should be managing the Mets.
Nolan Reimold – 2-for-4 with his fourth homer in the last ten games; also he’s hitting .300 over the last week. He’s either hitting really well recently, or it’s an illusion to get people to draft him again next year.
Robert Andino – 1-for-2 with a steal. After 136 games, he has 13 steals with 4 coming in the last week. I don’t get that. Did he just suddenly realize he’s fast? Was he auditing a summer class from the University of Phoenix on base stealing and he just passed? If you have speed, then run.
Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 6 ER. On the year, he gave up 59 earned runs in… Guess how many innings. Wait for it… Here it comes… Wait, where did I put it?… How did it end up in my glove compartment? Anyway, in 49 2/3 innings. That gives him the worst single-season ERA in MLB history (10.69). On the bright side, for the record he beat Halladay’s 10.64 ERA of 2000. Then again, Halladay was throwing with his left hand that season.
Grady Sizemore – Shut down for the year. Backdate that to the moment his flash went off in front of a mirror. Use any definition of the word flash you’d like.
Asdrubal Cabrera – Left Saturday’s game with an elbow contusion and didn’t play Sunday. On a side note, I think Asdrubal should follow Ichiro’s lead and have just Asdrubal on his jersey. Imagine parents taking their kids to a game and covering their eyes when they see Asdrubal.
Shelley Duncan – 2-for-3 with his 7th homer in September. I feel sorry for all those that had to high-five him during his torrid month. He’s always so intense. Here’s him at a post-game press conference.
Felix Hernandez – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 2 Ks and was pulled from the game after being hit by a comebacker. Over the winter, I want a 500 word essay from him about what he did this summer that made me no longer love him.
Miguel Cabrera – Hit a homer in his third straight game, then left due to lightheadedness. After the game, he said he prefers Amstel Light-headedness.
Matt Holliday – 2-for-7 over the weekend as he returned. La Russa, wearing a jacket made from veggie burgers, said as long as Holliday’s healthy, he’s going to be out there. Now it’s a judgment call whether you should play him. I wouldn’t necessarily go back to him if I had options that were hitting.
Jose Bautista – After crashing into a wall, he stayed in the game for five innings only to then leave with a knee injury. I think he should be fine. My mom was right, I could’ve been a doctor. “But, mom, there’s a whole lot more zeroes in blogging. Though that’s not zeroes as in money.”
Brett Cecil - 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER and ends the year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Somehow, I’ll find a way to make him seem attractive yet again next year; you just wait and see!
Carlos Gonzalez – As reported here first on Friday after inferring shizz from other sources, CarGo is done for the year. As I said in the preseason, “He’s a bumps-and-bruises, miss-a-few-days-here-and-there type guy. Those day-to-day things can turn into more.” And that’s me quoting me!
Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3-for-6, 5 RBIs and 2 homers. Don’t mess with The ‘Noff.
Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his 28th homer. I’d put $5 on The Other White Meat getting to 30 homers, if I were a betting man. Okay, if I were a betting man on things I actually know and not just random rolls of a die.
Torii Hunter – 1-for-3 with a steal yesterday, and a homer on Friday and Saturday. Not the same homer, that would be weird.
Vernon Wells – Slam & legs yesterday and 4 homers in the last 8 games. You looking at his 25 homers and 9 steals on the year, “Hey, Vernon Wells had a good year? Who knew?” You looking at his average, “He hit .220? Crimey a river, Justin Timberlake.”
Adrian Beltre – 3-for-4 with his 30th homer and 101st RBI while hitting .293. I don’t get it, is he gonna try to renegotiate his contract?
Ian Kinsler – 3-for-4, 3 runs and a homer and two steals. Totally just padding his stats to get to 30/30 and I love it. This is why all players should have to own themselves in an H2H league with 50% of their contract in their fantasy league pot. I wonder if the union will go for it.
Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and he’s 7 for his last 13. Can you tell I don’t want the season to end? This is like the longest roundup ever. Bonifacio is hot, moving on…
Ricky Nolasco – 2 IP, 6 ER. Ends the season with a 4.67 ERA. Somehow, he’ll be hyped again next year by everyone but me. “Hey, ESPN analcyst here, and I want you to look at Nolasco’s strikeout to walk ratio. He’s awesome!”
Clayton Kershaw – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and his 21st win to go along with his 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 248 Ks. Even with an injured knee, that had Ethier dancing.
Justin Upton – Left the game after being hit in the head by a Lincecum fastball. Tests are showing no signs of a concussion. Too bad. I was hoping he’d return as Jason Bourne and bring down Justin Morneau for trying to kill my fantasy teams.
Asdrubal Cabrera strains his back, and, no “Asdrubal Strains Back” is not a sequel to a sci-fi porn movie. At this time of the year, any little thing can knock people for the remainder of the year. To help you picture what I’m saying, imagine this is April and we’re talking about Morneau. That’s how easily players can get knocked out. This injury comes on a day where Asdrubal hit his 24th homer. Even if Da ‘drubal doesn’t return, he gave you everything he had this year. Drubal took ’11 to 11. For next year, I’m pretty sure he’s going to be a tad overrated. He never hit more than 10 homers in any professional. He’s been consistent with power this year from month to month, but his HR/FB% soared away above anywhere it had ever been before. He should still be able to get around 15 homers next year, but if you get a 15/15 season, you’re suddenly wondering if a sure-to-be-underrated Jimmy Rollins isn’t a safer way to go. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Billy Butler – Missed yesterday’s game with the flu. Someone dump a Gatorade cooler of chicken soup over Butler’s head.
Yunel Escobar – To the DL with an elbow injury. Bobby Cox just wishes he injured it on Kelly Johnson’s face.
Brett Cecil – 3 IP, 4 ER which was followed by Kyle Drabek’s 2 IP, 6 ER as unrealized potential met yet-to-be-unrealized potential.
Doug Fister – Will be pitching in relief of Scherzer on Wednesday rather than starting as the Tigers get ready for the playoffs. If Fister is the relief, I don’t even want to know what Scherzer translates to.
Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 K. Freakin’ Braves with all the sexy young pitching, huh? Freakin’ Braves. I love them. Beachy, Minor, Delgado, Vizcaino, all of them. Now I know how Bill James feels when looking at Chris Davis. Shoot that poisoned arrow through my heart, Braves pitching staff minus Jurrjens, Lowe and anyone else I’m forgetting that I don’t like!
Alex Gonzalez – 2-for-3 with his 15th homer, then left with a foot injury. Comes a bad time because he was putting the coals in the fire, which isn’t an expression but should be.
Jason Heyward – 1-for-3 with a steal. 5 for his last 10 with a homer while batting in the 8 hole. Maybe he just needed to be in the 8 hole to be comfortable, or maybe he’s just really too good to be batting in the 8 hole. Hmm, wonder which one it is.
Pablo Sandoval – Hasn’t been able to bat right-handed because of a shoulder injury and might have offseason surgery to correct the issue. Or that’s a cover for Lap-Band.
Ben Zobrist – Returns to the lineup on Wednesday after taking time off for the birth of his daughter. No word on how many positions Mrs. Zobrist utilized for the birth, but – based on her profession – I’m guessing missionary on the conception.
Wade Davis – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER. Too bad he doesn’t play for the Jays, he could’ve relieved Drabek with his potentially-yet-to-be-unrealized-potential-that-might-not-be-potential-anymore potential.
Manny Ramirez – It’s being reported he’s going to play in the Dominican Winter League. He’s hoping to meet up with Miguel Tejada down there to reminisce about the salad days of the 90s. Maybe even start up a band, Man-Ram and the B-12 with their lead single, “Just Give Me A Shot (Of Your Sweet Sweet Estrogen Therapy).”
Adam Dunn – 2-for-6 as he doubled his season hit total. No, wait, he doubled twice. Sorry, honest mistake.
Dylan Axelford – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks. He was coming off a decent start vs. the Tigers but you shouldn’t have went anywhere near him for this start. Though I can understand how you could get seduced by his conglomeration of cool names.
Bud Norris – Left his start with a sore shoulder. He’s done for the year. Or as they say in Spanish ‘ano completo.’
Kyle Blanks – Left the game with a right quad strain. Seventeen men helped him off the field.
Jason Kipnis – 2-for-4 with a steal in the first game, and didn’t start the 2nd game. He should’ve though because he’s seeing the ball well. He’s hit in every game he’s started but three since August 1st. (Sure, he’s missed about 20 games in there, but whatevs.)
Alex Liddi – His 2nd game in a row with a homer. In broken English, he told reporters, “I drink your pizza! I drink it up!”
Tom Milone – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks. Second start solid start for Milone. He looks to be in the Slowey mold back before Slowey got screws put in his wrist and then put the screws to his fantasy owners. Once upon a midnight dweawy, Slowey pondewed weak and weawy what could’ve been. I still wouldn’t trust Milone if he gets one more start, but he’s now on the radar for deeper leagues in Twenty-Twelve. Or as I’m gonna call it twelve past twenty.
Ross Detwiler – 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks. Phils are in serious coast mode.
Danny Espinosa – 3-for-4 with his 20th homer. You’re probably thinking to yourself, I don’t have the profiteroles to go with the cannoli to like Espinosa again next year. You, sir, don’t know my pastry prowess.
Erik Bedard – 2 2/3 IP, 1 ER (3 unearned). Of course the Sawx want to get to the playoffs, but has anyone seen their last four starters? Wakefield, Weiland, Lackey, Bedard… So, they gonna pitch Lester and Beckett on one day rest throughout the playoffs?
Clay Buchholz – Threw a simulated game. Unfortunately, he gave up 7 runs, but the 1976 Cincinnati Reds are a tough Strat-o-Matic matchup. Damn you, George Foster!
