Well, baseball is back and the All Star break already feels like a distant memory, but it seems like there’s not really a lot going on in terms of the NL or AL-only waiver wire. With Jose Quintana, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, we’ve had one biggish-name and two possibly impactful crossover players head to the NL, so depending on how your waivers work that may have produced a flurry of activity. Beyond those names, though, I feel like the waiver wire has been even thinner than normal in both the NL and AL only world. Perhaps a moment of calm before the storm as more trades/promotions go down, and it can be awfully difficult to predict how much real-life trading action there will be — and how it should impact one’s approach on using waiver priority, FAAB dollars, or whatever other method your league NL or AL-only league might use to acquire crossover players. (By the way, I should mention that I’m writing this on Monday and will not have a chance to edit it before it gets published, so if crazy flurries of trades, injuries, and assorted moments of baseball wackiness occur on Tuesday, well, that’ll have to be addressed next week).

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Now the baseball Gods have gone too far. Carlos Correa was my AL MVP pick for this year, my biggest keeper in my main league and one of my few reasons for joy so far this fantasy season. 6-8 weeks is his time table and since it is a torn ligament and not a broken bone he probably won’t have that super-human Freddie Freeman healing time frame. August 29th is the earliest we might see Correa take the field again in real life, but he’ll be playing SS and hitting HRs every night in my dreams. Stash or Trash: Stash. Unless you’re in a 2-team league. In which case, what the hell is wrong with you? Fill In: I grabbed Jose Reyes (18.3%) because I’ve lost control of my life. Since the beginning of July, Reyes has a .405 AVG with 3 HR but only 1 SB. If he’s figured something out he might find eventually himself hitting higher than 7th in the Mets lineup. More likely though, I’ll be cycling short stops in an out until August 29th. 

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My friends, welcome back from your DFS break if you didn’t play last Friday, Saturday, or Sunday…oh who are we kidding, you’ve been tying off and tapping that fantasy vein so much since the second half started, we should probably get you checked for infection.  Well, I’ve seen Trainspotting so let’s avoid that come down process that leads to creepy babies crawling along the ceiling for you and keep you DFS juiced.  Today’s third most expensive pitcher is Adam Wainwright, so the world is trying to tell you something: start Adam Wainwright.  Wait, no!  The world is trying to tell you it’s a tourney play kinda day.  I’d avoid cash play today and stay in the warm GPP waters.  But of course, that’s not what my title is about.  My title is pointing you to Josh Tomlin.  Tomlin’s a control freak with a minute 1.06 BB/9 with an alright K rate of 6.77 per 9.  His big issue is the long ball as he has HR/FB rates of someone pitching BP for the Home Run Derby.  Thankfully he gets to pitch against the Giants tonight in AT&T Park, a stadium that ranks last for HR factor.  Speaking of, Giants, you might wanna tap Cleveland’s shoulder about a trade or something here…anyhoo, enough of me playing GM, let’s play DFS.  Here’s my hot summer taeks for this Monday FD slate…

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The list of two-start starters for Week 16 is pretty ugly. Not only did it take some time to materialize as teams figured out their rotations following the All-Star break, but once the dust settled and we had a good idea of who would be starting when many of the names we were left with were not all that appealing. Sure, the high-end options like Kershaw (for now), Strasburg, and Greinke were there, but the meat and bones of the list were lacking.

Just ignore Clayton Kershaw. At this point in the season, I am convinced that Dave Roberts reads this post every week and then trolls us all by changing his rotation on Sunday night. He is at the top of the list as of this writing, but that could easily change in the next few seconds. The Dodgers have a dozen or so possible starting pitchers, and Roberts shuffles or adjusts his rotation pretty frequently.

One name to take a look at this week is the soft-tossing Brent Suter. While he does not exactly light up the radar gun, he has been very effective in his recent stint as a starter for the Brewers. In his last two starts, he shut out the Orioles over six innings while striking out eight and then allowed just two earned runs over 6 ? innings against the Yankees while striking out five before the break.

Throughout his career in the minors, Suter has been consistently solid-yet-unremarkable. In other words, he has never really been great but hasn’t been bad, either. He has a 3.44 ERA across six seasons in the minor leagues while throwing to a 3.12 ERA during his time in the show. His 2.96/2.78/8.23/2.63 (see chart below) is also solid.

Streamonator does not like him as much as I do. The ‘nator has Suter up around its 20th best option or so (with a negative value), while I have him at the top of the Standards category below, which puts him around 15th or so. He is, however, only owned in 1% of all RCLs, so he should be available to everyone reading this except the one person who is in the league with that one guy or gal who already picked him up.

If you are in need of an arm in the short term, especially in a two-start week, you can do worse. You can do better, too, but I like Suter as a guy who can offer some solid short term numbers. Other guys Streamonator likes for the upcoming week who are owned in less than 50% of RCLs: Matt Moore, Zack Wheeler, and Rafael Montero.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is an excerpt of a phone call Razzball intercepted during Sunday’s afternoon games.  Since every state involved is a two-party consent for recording, we cannot reveal who recorded the call, but it rhymes with Trudy Gramble.  Here, let’s listen in:  “Hello, this is the CEO of Super Ball, the world’s hardest, bounciest, craziest, shouldn’t-be-used-as-a-baseballiest ball.  Who is this calling?”  Our Commissioner Rob Manfred disguises his voice so he sounds raspy, “I’m Kathleen Turner.  I was wondering if you would sell me 70,000 Super Balls to not be used for baseball purposes.”  “Body Heat Kathleen Turner?  Not to get all James Lipton, but I am a huge fan of your–”  “Okay, toots…”  Manfred lowers the phone receiver, to his secretary, “Toots?”  Back into the phone, “Um, so don’t make me kill you and blame a different femme fatale.  I need those Super Balls.”  So, yesterday was bonkers for homers, yet again.  I will now list the home runs by guys in just the Astros game:  Yulieski Gurriel (2-for-5, 2 runs) hit his 11th; Jose Altuve (3-for-4, 4 runs, 3 RBIs, hitting .347) hit his 13th; Evan Gattis (2-for-5, 2 runs, 4 RBIs) hit his 8th and Carlos Correa (4-for-5, 5 RBIs) and two homers, his 19th and 20th.  Holy Salami Tom, there’s a crapton of home runs this year.  I have two mixed leagues where I feel like if I’m not getting at least five homers per day, I’m falling behind.  Also, on a pitching front, if I can just maintain a 3.50 ERA, I could come in first for ERA.  By the way, I hope we’re not sued by Our Commissioner Rob Manfred, but something must be done.  Get the Super Balls out of baseball!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Here we are halfway through the season – still a small sample size of games in the grand scheme of things, but I’m finally willing to admit that some of this year’s most surprising breakout hitters may continue to help fantasy teams as the season progresses. Just looking at the All Star starting lineups, each team has several pretty huge surprises (unless you correctly predicted back in April that Ryan Zimmerman, Zack Cozart, Justin Smoak, and Corey Dickerson would all be starting). In the outfield, I certainly didn’t see Marcell Ozuna and Aaron Judge getting the starting nod.

With all of these guys, I feel like the tendency from a fantasy perspective would be to sell high while you can, and avoid trading for them at all costs when their value is sky-high (and if you own any of them and you can, say, get a king’s ransom for Aaron Judge in a re-draft league, go for it). But if you find yourself on the other side, getting offered a guy like Ozuna by an owner who you suspect might be desperate to sell him when his value is as high as possible, making a deal to add a perceived over-performer may not be the craziest thing in the world.

Last year, I traded for Daniel Murphy right around this time of year, even though I knew I was getting a player who was most likely at the peak of a career year. But I knew that even if his batting average came down substantially (amazingly, it didn’t) and the power evaporated somewhat (it did, to about the extent I expected), he would still be a huge asset to my team in terms of helping me in a couple categories that would, and did, lead me to gain a few points in the standings. It never feels good to buy high on a player, but I don’t like to discount it as an option if I feel it might ultimately help my team over the long haul – especially in very deep leagues where you know the waiver wire pickings are always going to fall into the slim-to-none category. And speaking of slim pickings on the waiver wire, let’s get to some names who might be relevant in AL and NL-only leagues.

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Legit, this is longest July 4th weekend of all time.  In 1776 on July 4th, Ben Franklin grabbed six ladies, and was like, “This will be better than Flag Day.  We will call this Flagellation Day.  Now twerk with a firework!”  That lasted for three days until Ben yelled out an Astros’ hitter last name and called for a volunteer fire department to put out his redness.  Any hoo!  Ian Desmond hit the DL with “I wanna rest for a few extra days before the break.”  It’s an epidemic that is going around the majors right now.  This especially sucks for those that had him in their weekly lineups because you’re getting ziplock.  But, for the rest of us, we got Raimel Tapia (3-for-4, 2 runs and his 2nd homer).  Fun fact!  He has a brother who drinks too much and can’t control his lasciviousness.  His name is Felasleepon Tapia.  Raimel gets a huge boost in value with Desmond’s DL stint.  He’s a grab for every league, especially if you need SAGNOF.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?