Fantasy Baseball Advice

Cliff Lee not only signed with a team finally, he signed with the team that would give him the most value from the three rumored suitors. (BTW, Rumored Suitors would be an awesome R&B album title.  If you’re reading Jodeci, take it, it’s yours.)  Carlos Ruiz got a new battery mate and the Philly fans don’t have to throw batteries at anyone until at least 2013.  The Adverb’s return to Philly makes me think he can easily be a top ten starter in 2011.  The Mess and Gnats can’t hurt that.  Even in Citizens Flank he’s pitched, like, Excellent Lee — 2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts.  The Phillies now have the top three WHIPs for starters in the major leagues last year, with The Adverb coming in first with a 1.00.  A 1.00 WHIP in 212 1/3 IP goes a long way to helping a fantasy staff that is filled with Brain Freezes.  Wins are obviously unpredictable.  Somehow the Phillies have to lose at least 50 games.  And Lidge can only realistically be relied on for 10 of them.  For 2011, I’d give The Adverb the line of 16-6/2.95/1.05/190.  I.e., Fo’ realz?  I.e., Day-uhm.  I.e., Yup.  Anyway, here’s some more moves and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

J.J. Hardy – The O’s aren’t sitting idly by while the Red Sox put together an all-world team.  No, sir.  They landed J.J. Hardy.  You know how you make J.J. Hardy look like an upgrade?  Play Cesar Izturis at shortstop the year before.  The left side of the infield may hit a combined .240 in Baltimore.  They could also hit 60 homers.  Hardy could be a nice endgame target in AL-Only leagues.  Though a full season of at-bats is far from a guarantee with Hardy.  Though II, The Return of Though, in a full season of ABs, Hardy’s should be good for 17 to 22 homers.  Though III, The Bride of Though, his average won’t be pretty.

Russell Martin – Yeah, the Yankees are going to play Jesus Montero any year now.  Only 2011 isn’t going to be that year.  As I’ve been saying for the last two years, the Yankees just aren’t the type of team to turn over catching duties to a rookie.  This move will help Russell Martin’s value, but let’s face it his value could only go up at this point.  Before, I wouldn’t have told you to ever draft Martin.  Now, I could see taking him in the very last round of a draft.  I wouldn’t expect a return to his year in 2007 when he hit 19 homers and .293, but a return to a 10/10 year with good Runs and RBIs because of the lineup seems possible.

Hideki Matsui – Signed with the A’s.  The porn loving Hideki Matsui said through a translator that he can’t wait to give the A’s his best shot.  Matsui’s barely ownable in mixed leagues even when he’s hot, so this is more of an AL-Only blurb.  So in AL-Only leagues — meh.

Brendan Ryan – Signed with the M’s.  Know how you make this look good to your fans?  Have Jack Wilson as your starting shortstop.

Stealing is like borrowing until it becomes permanent. I don’t steal; it’s immoral, reprehensible and I’m really out of shape so I’d probably get caught. The fact of the matter is that these guys aren’t for everyone.  They shouldn’t be, but they will give you the all coveted stat:  steals.  These players should only be considered if you are in need of steals after your draft, 12 teams or deeper.  In H2H leagues, these players are especially important if you’re trying beat an opponent and only need a few quick “pick me up” steals.

Chris Getz – Yeah, this list is not exciting.  This KC middle infielder is horrible. I have shown him love in 16-20 team leagues. With  Aviles’ iffy elbow, he may be only shining light not named Yuniesky.

Kaz Matsui - On the down side of career, was there ever an up? Still has legs, which may get you 18-22 steals. With an OPS of 625, which is what Pujols slugs.

Eugenio Velez – Needs to find a spot somewhere.  Maybe he sent a poison Edible Arrangement™ to Fred Lewis. 400 abs might give you 20 snatches. I like that word for SB’s.

Luis Castillo – I know what you’re saying, he is horrible, and you’re right.  Sorta. Can help with steals while not demolishing BA.

Cliff Pennington – Sounds like an insurance salesman. Has the gig at short for the ‘tics.  Prolly the best guy on this list so far as potential.

Coco Crisp – 450 ABs easy and a 10/20 season.  It ain’t glamorous, but these steal guys rarely are.

Michael Brantley – Could actually get drafted in a 12 team. I like this kid, reminds me of The Big FraGu last year.

Eric Young – May start season on bench or in AAA, which is the place for really, really bad drinkers. Awesome speed potential.  Barmes needs to fall down some stairs for him to have a shot.

Brendan Ryan – Seriously, Julio Lugo. Good potential for a MI spot league if you get a stud early. Could do worse, the Cliff Pennington of the NL.

Austin Jackson – May struggle early.  Given 400 abs could go 8/15, with a ton of runs leading off.

Will Venable – Quietly will hit 6th for the Friars.  Decent pop last year should carry over, who doesn’t like the son of a Max. 10/15 very attainable.

Our mad experiment of a fantasy baseball game has come to life! Thanks to all the bloggers (and one non-blogger) that participated in the draft. Click here for the league members as well as blogmate Grey’s review of the draft. Here are links to other league members’ posts:

RotoProfessor

Fantasy Baseball Generals

Greener on the Other Side

Drafting the worst team vs. the best team possible proved to be a much tougher undertaking than standard FLB but it also proved more rewarding and entertaining.

A quick recap of rules before I go into my roster and draft strategy. It’s a 10 team mixed league universe with the standard roster of C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/UTIL/9P with 5 bench slots. Weekly roster changes.

Hitting:

AB (High = 10 points), R (Low), HR (Low), RBI (Low), K (High), AVG (Low)

Any team ABs < 5200 receive prorated stats @ 550 ABs of .320 AVG/120 R/35 HR/120 RBI/50 K

Pitching:

IP (High = 10 points), L (High), HR allowed (High), ERA (High), WHIP (High), K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

My draft strategy was to focus on low HR/RBI players with 500+ AB potential in the first couple rounds with preference toward typically strong positions of 1B, 3B, and OF. This surplus of AB with low power could hopefully be cashed in by using 300 AB platoon types in tougher to fill positions like CI and 4th/5th OF as well as support a high K player or two with good power stats. I also wanted to draft several multi-position players so I had flexibility when my craptastic players got the benchings they deserved. For pitchers, I focused on low K rate starters who have some job security (say, 2nd to 4th starter).

Time will tell if this strategy works out but I was very successful at executing it. See below for the draft results. I snagged three light-hitting OFs in the first four rounds (Taveras, Bourn, Owens) that combined for 4 HRs in 2007! Taveras and Bourn look like they should go for 900+ ABs and Owens should be able to kick in at least 300. I was also able to get 2 SS Razzball legends in Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman who are set to be everyday anchors. Was able to get versatile Brendan Ryan (2B/SS/3B), Esteban German (2B/3B/OF), and Pablo Ozuna (3B/OF) at good value. Snagged two K machines in Jack Cust (41% of 2007 AB!) and Mike Cameron (160 last year). Cust is going to feel like a big swinging dick in my fantasy OF – probably the same way Jack Clark felt on the 1985 Cardinals.

I didn’t take a pitcher until the 9th round but feel like I’ve got a number of guys who’ll be good for 20+ awful starts including Kyle Kendrick, John Denks, and two of the terrible Mariner trio (Batista and Washburn – Silva went early).

Here are the draft results & rosters. (Click on the image for better resolution)

So what do you think? Which team do you like the least, ur, most?