Fantasy Baseball Advice

Straight from Rudy’s risky pitcher post, “Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.”  Following that line of thought, Brandon Morrow was thrown from the big boy ride and will start the season on the DL because he threw sliders with reckless a-Brandon.  The Jays are going to backdate Morrow’s DL stint so he’ll only miss one start.  Yeah, and I’d like to backdate my fantasy draft where I took Morrow, but that ain’t happening either.  If Morrow only misses one start all year, call me Mr. Wendal and play me in a game of horseshoes.  A game of horseshoes!?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kyle Drabek – Definitely making the rotation now.  In his cup of coffee last year, he got creamed.  But like a Welsh Corgi, he comes from a good pedigree.  If Morrow stays out for an extended period time, then Drabek could stay up for a while.  I like my roofies in the NL, so I’m not picking him up, but in AL-Only or keepers, I could see grabbing him for a 7 K/9 and just over a 4 ERA.

Roy Oswalt – Was knocked down by a comebacker.  Would’ve be a classy touch if the stadium started playing Rihanna’s “What’s My Name?”  BTW, why is the square root of 69 Aesop?  Oswalt is as tough as nails (not Lenny Dykstra, though they could be brothers from different mothers).  I wouldn’t be surprised if Oswalt is fine for the start of the regular season.  C’mon, he rides tractors in the offseason, you can’t stop that magic.

Curtis Granderson – Early yesterday morning, Joe Girardi said Grandy will be ready for Opening Day.  But Girardi wears braces causing no one to take him serious, so later in the day there was word Grandy won’t be ready.

Dustin Ackley – Dustin’s off, man, to the minors.  Invest in plastics!

Jake Peavy – Called his rotator cuff problem a minor blip.  Yeah, and the Titanic hit a minor iceberg.

Kila Ka’aihue – Haven’t talked much about The Good Eyein’ Hawaiian.  He hasn’t hit for much average so far in the major leagues.  Or is it ma’ajor leagues?  But he’s hitting well so far this spring.  Oh, poi!  In OBP leagues, you should grab him in the reserve rounds for a chance at something special.  In 15 team leagues or more, take a flyer.  Can’t hurt.  He could be one of those guys that becomes the hot add the first week of the season and hits 25 homers with a .260 average.

Alexi Ogando – Told reporters he wants to close.  Now there’s some initiative.  Next time, he should say that while dressed as Ron Washington.

Oliver Perez – The Nats signed him then announced they would be holding an Oliver Perez Day in late-May where the fans get to throw rocks at the management, only to miss them with three of four throws.

Brandon Webb – Was scratched from throwing when he couldn’t get loose.  Wait a second, someone in aluminum pants just walked into my office.  What’s that?  You’re from the future?  Wow!  Why are you here, future boy?  To tell me Webb only starts seven games all year and is then shut down again?  Thanks!  Wait, come back!  I have important questions for you!  Like, um, who wins Top Chef?!

Brian Wilson – Had a setback with his oblique.  Sorta like the monkeys at the start of 2001:  A Space Odyssey.  My money says Romo is going to close games for the first week of the regular season and it’s written in Latin.

Cody Ross – May miss the start of a season with a hurt calf, which is abbreviated in the New England Journal of Medicine as a boo-boo on the moo-moo.

Zack Greinke fractured his rib while playing basketball.  Word is he jumped from the free throw line and tried to dunk over the Brewers’ 2011 expectations.  Prince Fielder would’ve missed the shot before looking bad.  Since we just drafted Gallardo, I’m glad he doesn’t play hoops with Yovani.  Greinke will miss 3 starts, so take him from 220 IP to 200 IP or the equivalent of 3 rounds, or $20 to $16 in 12 team mixed leagues.  (BTW, Point Shares for AL-Only and NL-Only have been added.)  In my top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball post, I was already pretty realistic (read: not crazy optimistic) with Greinke so I’m not changing my projections or ranking.  I.e., I do what I do, you do what you do and together we do what we do.  Anyway, here’s some more news for fantasy baseball:

Corey Hart – Was already avoiding him in all leagues this year and now he has a sharp pain by his strained oblique.  I wouldn’t touch him with your team.  Hart’s hoping his trip to the doctor can figure out what ails him.  Never surrender, Corey Hart!

Ryan Zimmerman – Strained his abdominal muscle when he heard someone call out his name during a game of Jew or Not a Jew.  He should be fine, but this is a reminder that as great as Zimmerman is he still always seems to have nagging injuries.

Brandon Webb – Won’t be ready for Opening Day.  In other news, water is wet.

Joel Zumaya – Will miss Opening Day.  Water still wet.

Derrek Lee – Will have an MRI on his wrist today.  This is an update for all of those fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) who think they’re outsmarting everyone by taking Lee very late and thinking they’re going to get a 2010 Konerko out of him.  Modify Derrek with past-his-primely.

Carlos Beltran – Now having problems with his non-surgically repaired knee.  Somewhere, Kauffman Stadium is saying, “Hey, I switched to natural grass in 1994 so stop looking at me!”  You really don’t want to get pot-committed to this schmohawk.  No matter the price, you’re going to regret it.

Justin Morneau – Returned from his head knocking… Where did I put my caps?  Oh, here they are… FINALLY!  He knocked in three with a double and I’d draft him with confidence.  It’s not like he broke his wrist.  Other players (minus Jason LaRue) have returned just fine from a concussion.  Because Rudy and I have already drafted Morneau in two leagues for around $20, you’ll have to pardon me while I bask in my discounted Morneau.  BTW, someone from one of our leagues tried to tell us a trade of Morneau for Ubaldo was “simple silly” and instead offered us Ackley, Ubaldo and Pineda for Holliday, Stanton, Danks and League.  Apparently, he’s an alpha trader.

Chris Carpenter left yesterday’s spring training game with a strained hammy.  That sounds delicious!  Unless, of course, you’ve drafted him already.  Then you’re like, “Jesus, Carpenter!”  But you shouldn’t have drafted him already.  You really shouldn’t draft until the last possible second in March.  You don’t want to lose your league before the season even starts, that’s not fun/fair.  Not to mention, I wouldn’t draft Carpenter.  I don’t trust him to stay healthy, even if recent history tells us I should.  I also don’t walk on the sidewalk cracks and sometimes check to make sure my door is locked seven times before leaving.  Hey, no one’s perfect.  The Cardinals say Carpenter will be fine in ten days or so.  I still say stay away.  Older pitcher coming off a 235 IP season who is already hurting?  I’m okay without that.  BTW, if you found this site by searching Google for “Jesus + Carpenter + what do Cardinals say?” you’re in the wrong place.  Sorry.  Anyway, here’s some more news for fantasy baseball:

Grady Sizemore – Won’t be ready until the middle of April.  Hopefully he’s taking this extra time to pose for some more nudie pictures of himself.  “Oh, darn, I got something on my pants.  Maybe I should remove them.”  That’s Grady playing coy, the only playing he’s been doing lately.

Nick Johnson – Signed with the Indians.  When the signing was announced, he seemed in good spirits.

Jake Peavy – From the files of Grey Will Never Learn, I’m starting to get excited about Jake Peavy again.  He’s supposed to make an appearance on Friday and should be ready for the start of the season.  All common sense is telling me Peavy will just get hurt again by June, but if he’s throwing well and healthy, I could see moving him up the ranks and drafting him at a discount.

Brandon Webb – News sounds positive about Webb throwing bullpen sessions.  Terrific, wonderful, awe to the some.  Whatever, my Peavy enthusiasm doth not runneth over to Webb.

Josh Beckett – Was hit by a batting practice ball and is showing concussion symptoms.  I’m not a doctor — in case you were wondering — but after losing Morneau for ten months to a concussion, I think this is just another reason to avoid Beckett.

Lance Berkman – Will DH for a bit because of a sore throwing elbow.  Sounds like minor news, but if this problem continues into the season, where’s he playing for the Cardinals?  Not 1st base.  I have a feeling all of those people drafting Berkman who are hoping for a bounce back are going to be yawnstipated.

Chris Iannetta – He hit a home run yesterday.  Already went over catchers to target, where Iannetta got some face time (Do I have to pay Steve Jobs a nickel for saying that?).  Oh, and I’ve already drafted Iannetta on one team.  Why won’t you draft him?  Afraid of success?  Aw, you underachiever, you.

Matt Thornton – February Grey waffled about whether Thornton would be the closer.  “Ooh, I’m February Grey and I can’t decide on the White Sox closer or what to eat for a snack.”  Eat Cheetos and draft Thornton with confidence.  Thank God that February Grey guy has a short month, huh?

Kyle McClellan – Looks to be the frontrunner for the fifth spot in the Cardinals rotation.  My take is Dave Duncan will sprinkle some of his magic dust on McClellan and he’ll be a valuable mixed league option by the end of the year.  He won’t be drafted in most leagues though, and I wouldn’t go against that outside of NL-Only leagues.  In NL-Only leagues, he’s the kind of pick that can help you win your league.

Brian Wilson – Dealing with a back issue of Men’s Health.  He says he’ll be all right.  I believe him.  Guy might be bonkers, but he’s got heart.  Still being drafted too high for me, so there’s that.

Corey Hart – Will be sidelined for two weeks with a strained abdominal muscle.  Don’t worry, the Hart Foundation will get its revenge!

This is almost the end of the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there was one guy who truly emerged (Mat Latos) and a few who kinda did (Filthy Sanchez, Trevor Cahill and Brandon Morrow), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list.  But humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball:

61. Javier Vazquez – This tier is a continuation of the last tier in the top 60 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until McDonald.  I called this tier, “Grey’s going upside your head.”  Vazquez wouldn’t surprise me if he goes from here to a top 20 starter because of his history in the NL.  I already went over my Javier Vazquez fantasy after he went to the ‘lins.  2011 Projections:  12-10/3.75/1.25/170

62. Matt Garza – I didn’t go over Garza when he was traded because I think I started the rankings already.  I’m only one man!  (But sometimes I carry a mullet wig so I can pretend to be my alter ego, Grey Dirt.)  Garza goes to the NL Central from the AL East.  That’s a boon for anyone’s value.  Carlos Silva even made the NL Central look silly at times last year.  Unfortunately, Garza likes to give up fly balls and in Wrigley that’s a bigger issue than in the Trop.  I have a feeling Garza’s going to beat my projections, but, for a guy who hasn’t had a xFIP below 4.00 in his career, I’m not willing to go any lower.  2011 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.27/165

63. Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann’s probably going to keep getting drafted earlier and earlier as the season approaches.  I nearly put him in the top 60 starters, but he’s coming off major surgery and he won’t throw an entire season.  My guess is 150 IP from him.  Of course, if J. Z’s having health problems, I feel bad for you, son.  He’s got 99 problems but a pitch ain’t one.  2011 Projections:  10-8/3.70/1.26/140

64. Jeremy Hellickson – Already went over my Hellickson fantasy.  2011 Projections:  9-5/3.60/1.10/140

65. James McDonald – Has made his way firmly into the category of “People who think they know more than you are drafting this guy.”  It’s clearly because of his September numbers — 2.31 ERA, 30 Ks in 35 IP.  Hey, I get it.  When you’re this deep, you have to latch onto something.  I’m all for it.  You shouldn’t draft safe with your last anything.  I guarantee that there will be Clayton Richard or Aaron Harang types on waivers in just about every league.  If McDonald has a good April, he’ll not only be owned but people will hold him with a death grip.  2011 Projections:  9-9/3.80/1.30/160

66. Jair Jurrjens – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until I call this tier, “Vets I’m ignoring.”  Meesa wasn’t burned by Jar-Jar last year because meesa turned away from him as soon as he was injured in the spring.  This year, he’s supposedly going to be fine.  That’s nice, let him prove it on someone else’s team.  2011 Projections:  11-8/4.00/1.30/140

67. A.J. Burnett – Last year I was burned by Burnett (say that fast 117 times!).  It still hurts when I sit down.  This year I’m letting Burnett treat someone else like an extra on Oz.  2011 Projections:   12-10/4.15/1.35/160

68. Scott Baker – Member the smush session we had with Baker last year?  Yeah, he gave you the clap.  And not the good clap but the bad clap.  2011 Projections:  11-9/4.00/1.32/140

69. Gavin Floyd – Seems to consistently do worst than his FIP, which would be great if FIP were a category in my league.  He’s about as unexciting as they come.  Oh wait, Jeff Niemann’s next!  2011 Projections:  10-9/4.05/1.30/160

70. Jeff Niemann – I wrote this long diatribe about how I have nothing to say about Niemann then when I went to copy and paste it I lost it somewhere.  Teach me to write filler!  (Unlike this.)  2011 Projections: 10-10/4.15/1.30/130

71. Kevin Slowey – Honestly, I almost suggested you draft Slowey and Baker.  It’s…so…hard…for…me…to….ignore…them.  I’m trying to learn from past mistakes.  (Okay, if you have to draft Baker or Slowey, go for Baker, his K-rate is better.)  2011 Projections:  10-7/4.10/1.28/125

72. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Davis. I call this tier, “There’s some upside here, but I wouldn’t expect anything.”  There’s a good chance that if you draft one of the guys from this tier, you’re going to end up dropping them by mid-April.  re: Cecil — He was once considered better than Romero.  There’s signs of a terrific K-rate in the minors, the Jays have watched his innings well and he cut his walk rate last year.  Great, wonderful, fantastic!  Unfortunately, he’s still in the AL East, his K-rate last year was terrible and his xFIP was 4.32.  2011 Projections:  9-11/4.10/1.34/155

73. Anibal Sanchez – He’s only going to be 27 in 2011.  I tell you that because that’s really the only thing I see as far as upside.  Chances are he won’t be good as far as ERA goes and his K-rate falls the longer into the season he pitches.  Eh, like I said, “He’s only 27!”  2011 Projections:  9-8/4.00/1.35/150

74. Brian Matusz – “The O’s successfully petition the league to switch them to the NL East.”  ”The question, Alex, is there any way Grey drafts Matusz?”  2011 Projections:  7-10/4.10/1.32/160

75. Wade Davis – I like Davis a lot, but I think we still might be a year too early on him.  (See David Price’s 2009 for further reading.)  I have a feeling I’m going to go crazy for Davis in 2012.  As for 2011, there’s upside but his K-rate needs to make a major U-turn from last year and the whole AL East thing.  On the bright side, his post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.85/1.32/135 (<–pretty optimistic)

76. Jake Peavy – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Webb.  I call this tier, “I’m not drafting any of them.”  Maybe I’ll return for more tsuris in 2012 but right now I’m not going anywhere near these guys.  There’s too many issues juggling healthy players as it is to worry about drafting an unhealthy one.  2011 Projections:  5-3/3.70/1.22/100

77. Johan Santana – If he were healthy going into the season, I wouldn’t own him in 2011.  Too many bad trends associated with his name.  2011 Projections:  6-3/3.65/1.20/80

78. Brandon Webb – I already went over my Brandon Webb fantasy when he went to the Rangers.  There’s not a whole lot there, but there’s not a whole lot to say until he actually pitches again in the majors.  I’d let him do it on someone else’s fantasy team.  2011 Projections:  6-9/4.25/1.26/120

79. Mike Minor – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Total shots in the dark.”  Mike Minor is getting a whole post dedicated to him later today.  I wrote it behind my Rita Hayworth poster on my cell wall.  Just need to transcribe it.  2011 Projections:  10-8/3.85/1.28/180

80. Travis Wood – If Wood doesn’t get a rotation spot, then ignore this.  If Leake gets the rotation spot, ignore him in mixed leagues.  Last year, Wood had a 7.54 K/9, a 2.28 walk rate and .227 BAA.  That tells me I want Wood!  Okay, Beavis, stop giggling.  Only problem with Wood is Dusty may have Extenze’d him a little too much last year and his arm may fall off.  2011 Projections:  12-8/3.85/1.16/150

There’s a lot of pitchers after the top 80 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball, but here’s a few that stand out:

Bud Norris – You want a guy that could be this year’s Jonathan Sanchez?  Here ya go.  I mean that in the best of ways and the worst of ways.  He could strikeout 200 while having a walk rate north of 4, a WHIP north of 1.45 and an ERA north of 4.50.  If he can dance between the walks without giving up runs, he might have an incredible year.  Take the chance on him.  If it explodes in your face, you drop him.  2011 Projections:  10-7/4.00/1.40/180

Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang – Hodgepadres!  2011 Projections: Home starts that give you value and away starts that give you agita.

Jonathon Niese – He should’ve been ranked much higher.  I moved him down here to highlight him with my “After Top 80″ spotlight.  (Don’t shine it in your eyes, you will go blind.)  Let’s go over some positives.  Niese had a 7.67 K/9 last year and he can bump that up over 8 this year.  Metco is a nice place to pitch.  The Mets could win some games.  The only real negative I can think of is everything the Mets touch manages to turn to crizzap.  If Niese can avoid Mr. Met’s mal de ojo, you could have a sneaky top 25 starter.  2011 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.28/160 (<–crazy optimistic but whatevs)

Homer Bailey – I don’t think a top 80 starters post is ever complete without Homer Bailey.  If Homer is going to break out, this is the year.  His xFIP last year was under 4 and his K-rate was above 8 for the first time in his major league career after rocking a solid K-rate in the minors.  If he can keep his K-rate over 8 and his walk rate below 3.50 over the course of 170 IP, you’re going to have a top 30 starter.  The park he pitches in takes a slight bit of shine off him (4.97 ERA last year at home) and I don’t see anyway he pitches more than 170 innings.  Yes, even with Dusty garnering advice from his chewed-up toothpick.  2011 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.35/135

Chris Narveson – “Hey, Grey, my friend who knows a thing or two about a thing or two really likes Narveson this year.  But his ERA was 4.99 last year.  Can you explain what he sees in him?  Oh, and play that Wu Tang joint.”  Narveson had a 3.13 ERA in September.  The difference between someone like James McDonald putting together a nice September and Narveson doing it is about three years.  Narveson is 29 years old so I tend to think his September was just a good month.  If he had a good July and a crappy September, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.  But just in case, he’s worth an endgame flyer.  2011 Projections:  9-9/4.15/1.34/160

Felipe Paulino – It’s a shame Ed Wade’s toupee split up Norris and Paulino because they were like peas and carrots.  Nice Ks, bonkers walks.  The Coors thing doesn’t have me putting Paulino below Norris.  Bud’s a bit younger in his development, so I like him better.  I.e., there’s a better chance Norris can get his shizz together.   So draft Felipe Paulino, but you may drop him after his first start.  Oh, and am I the only one that wants to call him Filipino?  Yeah, probably.  2011 Projections:  8-6/4.35/1.42/150

Adrian Beltre signed with the Rangers for five years plus one contract year.  Hopefully, El Senator can turn the local economy around in 2016, until then don’t expect roads to be paved or new schools to open.  “We just don’t have the funding right now for more than 17 home runs.”  That’s Beltre next October talking to his constituents.  The problem Beltre threw at us with this signing is he’s going to be hitting in a park he historically does well in.  So on one hand, a guy that coasts for five years.  On the other hand, a comfortable hitting environment.  On a third hand that some of you might call a foot with finger toes, he’s really just a 25 homer, .275 hitter with some speed.  The steals give him a nice added boost, but are also pretty fickle.  He shouldn’t be counted on for anything over 7 steals.  Might get 12, might get 2.  The rankings that start on Monday will have my projections for everyone, but conservatively I’ll give Beltre 80/24/95/.285/7.  Definitely gives him more value than I expected from him about a month ago when I thought he would go to The Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles Angels and hit 18 homers and be a bust.  Of course, him even playing for the Rangers is contingent on no one rubbing his head.  Anyway, here’s some more moves around the league and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Michael Young – Should play the majority of his time at DH, which will cause a domino effect.  Everyone will be going up to bat while Getto Jam plays.  Wait, checking Wikipedia.  No, that’s the Domino effect.  The Young to DH domino effect will mean Vladdy isn’t long for the pah-tee, as told through Mayor Quimby.

Kevin Gregg – Signed with the O’s.  As frequent commenter, Steve, sorta said, this move comes after Alfredo Simon did what any good closer should do and finished his man off.  Even if Simon is cleared of all charges, it’s not going to happen for seven years, according to the TV show, Locked Up Abroad.  Now that Gregg is in O’s-town, he’s the closer.  That could go one of two ways.  He’ll lose the job by May or he’ll be terrible by May and keep the job all year while I keep yelling for the O’s to use Mike G.

Adam LaRoche – In what was one of the most highly anticipated signings this offseason (by Adam LaRoche and his family), he signed with the Nats.  So now a boring player to own is on a boring team to watch.  I got goose pimples just typing that!  Putting aside my cup of snark, I wouldn’t have owned LaRoche if he went to Coors.  This move does nothing positive for his fantasy value.

Octavio Dotel – Signed on to become the Blue Jays closer.  Love Dotel for fantasy since he’s an overlooked strikeout closer.  That’s a donkeycorn to you and me.

Brandon Webb – Signed with the Rangers.  Love this move for Webb because now people may draft him yet again.  In Arlington, I wouldn’t draft a healthy Webb.

Aroldis Chapman – Jocketty read a prepared statement that Aroldis’s arm will be saved by working out of the bullpen in 2011.  At least that’s what most reports said of the statement, it was hard to hear over Dusty Baker’s maniacal laugh.