Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chris Carpenter will undergo surgery on a compressed nerve in his shoulder. Word in The Bootheel is he’ll be fine for spring training. This will be something to watch in March and should be a decent-sized question mark during next year’s drafts. Will definitely be a high risk, high reward-type scenario. No Whammy, no Whammy, stop! Ooh… Further shoulder issues and the 60-day DL. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Moss - With a divot forming on his knee, he needs surgery that will sideline him for 6-8 months. Can’t they just fill his knee in with some sod? Steven Pearce should see action in his stead. Yo, watch where you’re standing! That’s my stead!

Asdrubal Cabrera - Wasn’t supposed to start his suspension until Thursday, but he started it yesterday. Drop The Dribble while he serves his three game suspension.

Ryan Shealy - HR yesterday. The Royals as a team are hot, which is to say they are one game out of last place. Rooting for the Royals is like rooting for your widowed Granny to find a male suitor. It’s nice to see her happy, but you don’t want to see her too happy because that’s just weird.

Chad Billingsley - I love this sumbitch. As Scully may have said (I didn’t watch), Billingsley might not have had his best tonight, but the Padres haven’t had their best all season. The Dodgers are looking like they’re playoff bound. This might cost Billingsley a start on Sunday.

Cliff Pennington - Did nothing yesterday, but he has speed and the A’s have been playing him at 2nd. He’s worth a flier for steals.

Wandy Rodriguez - 5 IP, 0 ER and 7 Ks. The Magic Wandy was strait-jacketed and dunked in a tank of E-9 by Wigginton, causing him to loss because of two unearned runs.

Evan Longoria - HR yesterday. The Rays pulled the ol’ Little League switcheroo yesterday in the second game of the DH. They sat some regulars then let them all pinch hit in the 8th as the Rays rallied for 6 runs. Free soft serve for everyone!

Tim Lincecum - Gave up four earned runs in only 4 and a third innings, but no fear he still threw 102 pitches. I have to think this carves Webb’s name on the Cy Young that the Giants so desperately wanted Lincecum to win more than ever make it through another healthy season.

Kenji Johjima - This KazIwadome rewarded patient owners with a 3-for-4 night and 3 RBIs. And by ‘patient owners,’ I mean owners that haven’t checked their fantasy baseball team since March when they auto-drafted Johjima.

Javier Vazquez - 4 IP, 5 ER. Guillen pulled a Mickey and asked to see Vazquez’s conjones. Vazquez showed marbles.

Scott Baker - 7 IP, 1 ER. Watch your feet, Baker’s throwing down a gauntlet.

Ryan Franklin - Grabbed the save yesterday, while Motte closed out the 7th inning and Chris Perez nailed down the 2nd out of the 8th inning.

Augie Ojeda - Batted 2nd and played 3rd base in the Diamondbacks biggest game of the season. Yost and Melvin obviously had a gentlemen’s bet of $1 to see who could get fired the latest in the season.

Cliff Lee - 7 IP, 5 ER and 12 earned over the last 21 and 1/3 innings. Comatose Indians fan, “Cliff, save some for the playoffs!”

Edinson Volquez - 7 and 1/3 innings, 1 ER and 9 Ks, but was pulled after only 98 pitches. Maybe Dusty let Paper, Rock, Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction Surgery Scissors decide.

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui - Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw - 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson - Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis - About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier - 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena - HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora - 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez - 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks - Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios - 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt - Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington - Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton - HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis - Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind - HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones - Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss - Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler - Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”

Some of you who find this post through Google may be disappointed to know the title does not refer to gay porn or grabbing bats in the non-gay way, but in the vampire way. Sorry, you shouldn’t be trying to grab bats anyway — in the the vampire way. As for the other way, I’ll relay a quick story. I was in the bathroom at the Hard Rock Casino in Vegas and guess who’s peeing next to me, Randy Johnson. I was so pumped (bad choice of words, but this whole story is ill-advised) I immediately blurted out, “Hey, it’s The Big Unit!” And that’s that story. Okay, so circumstances out of my control made it impossible for me to do a Buy/Sell last week. Well, excuuuuuse me. So this week we’re doing a Buy/Sell for fantasy baseball hitters today, then fantasy baseball pitchers tomorrow. This is when you get excited. I can’t hear you. Okay, better. In just about every league, it’s close to your trading deadline, if not past it. So I’m digging in my heels to try and uncover some gems. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball hitters to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Dioner Navarro - Hit two home runs this week. He hit 6 of 8 HRs last year in August and September. If you’ve held him this long, now is not the time to drop him.

Emilio Bonifacio - Last name pronounced: cheep stëlz.

Brandon Moss - A rolling stone gathers no moss… Ordinarily. But what if that rolling stone played fantasy baseball? Don’t think about that too long, it’ll cross your streams. Like Randy and I.

Wladimir Balentien/ Jeff Clement - Neither is worth the virtual paper I’m writing this on, but Vidro’s dumping opens up a DH slot. If you’re in a deep league, react accordingly.

Fernando Tatis - Not sure how many remember this, but Tatis was bonafide back in ‘99, slugging 34 HRs. He dropped a bit in ‘00 but it was due to injuries, then this kid by the name of Pujols stepped in and suddenly I sound like Vin Scully. Tatis has value if he’s healthy and hitting. Right now, both are true.

Bobby Crosby - I hate him more than you. I do. Try me. Fine, if you have to have your way, you hate him more.  He’s still been hot recently. Just know, caveat craptor.

Chipper Jones - I know, he should be a sell, but hear me out. This DL trip threw a monkey wrench into his owners’ plans and they learned to live without him. It also served as a reminder that Chipper can’t be trusted. So his owners have filled in for him and they’re mighty annoyed with him, so they’re zigging. Now what do you do? Zog? That’s not even a word! You zag! Holy heffin’ hey, pay attention!

Victor Martinez - Also, he could easily be on the Sell list, but I’m digging for diamonds in the rough here. He could go .350 with 5 HRs in the final 6 weeks. It’s not quite butter, but it’s not I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter either.

Casey Blake - Casey’s a girl’s name or an Affleck name, but don’t let that stop you. Blake used to be a favorite of mine in ten team mixed leagues. Ask Rudy. If I didn’t have Blalock or Kotchman, I had Blake.I don’t currently have him in any league, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t.

Alex Gordon - What are you listening to right now? “Stop Already With Alex Gordon” by The You? Ah, good song. But Gordon’s been hot recently and he hit well late last year. What, you can’t hear me because you’re still listening to “Stop Already With Alex Gordon” by The You? All right, I get it.

SELL

David Ortiz - As the Spanish might say, I got Papi issues. On July 18th, I told you to trade away David Ortiz. One thing has changed since then, his wrist now sounds like a Wu-Tang song.

Josh Willingham - Thought he was rounding the corner into Productive Outfieldville. Maybe he lost his Mapquest printout.

Jeff Keppinger - Not sure what happened to Keppinger after the injury, but he’s not even playing up to his nickname, Blanco Polanco.

Albert Pujols - Chillax, I’m not saying to sell him for three stale, powdered donuts and a Hogan’s Family Season 1 DVD. But let’s be clear, he’s hitting about 35 HRs this year. He’s at 23. He’s not going to get much above 100 RBIs or runs. He’s near 70 for both. The last time he hit more than 10 HRs in a month after the All-Star Break was in 2004, with 12 in August. And he’s an injury risk. Is he the best pure batsman in the major leagues? Perhaps, but he’s not currently near the best fantasy baseball player. I sold Pujols for Sizemore in one league. Since the trade, Sizemore 24/10/24/.289/10 — Pujols 27/7/31/.360/4.  And this is after Pujols hit two HRs in the last two games. Cust kayin’.

Randy Winn - Currently hot. So why sell? Next to the definition of schmohawk is Winn rubbing lotion on his ashy knees. He’s got one HR since June. He’s owned in 85% of ESPN leagues. Though I’m assuming 98% of their leagues are abandoned within the first week of the season. So there’s that.

Milton Bradley - You guys had a good run together. Much more valuable than either of you deserved. So what now? Dump and run? He’s only had more than 377 at-bats once in his career. He’s at 306. You got so much value from him, why are you moaning and shizz? What, you want more? Pick up someone else. You want Bradley? Eh, you’re impossible.

I listened to Lisa Loeb’s “Stay” while considering the relevance of the Manny trade, then I thought, “Why on earth am I listening to Lisa Loeb?” Rather than viewing this trade like it’s the end of an era, Red Sox fans seem to be viewing this trade like it’s the end of an error. Sure, Manny was a handful, but he gave you a lot more than 500+ career home runs and career average over .310. He gave you something sorely missing in today’s game — flavor. The irony is the Sox got back a player who makes white bread seem like a bold choice for a sandwich. Am I the only one who sees the Red Sox and thinks, “Ellsbury, JD Drew, Bay, Youuuuuuk, Lowell, Beckett, Varitek… Did Jerry Remy suddenly become the only one besides Big Papi with any character?” It’s bad enough everywhere you turn it’s Subway, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Supercuts, Kinko’s, rinse and repeat. Now all our sports stars must be deviod of personality, too. What were you thinking as the seconds ticked down and it was official that you were the champions? First, I want to thank God. Without him, none of this is possible. Next, I wanna point out what a great job Coach did. He took us from last to first in three years. Next, I gotta point out what a great job all of my teammates did. They made me better. Finally, it’s thanks to these fans! You’re the best in the world! If that’s not bucking fullshit, I’ve never heard it. So when the Sox fans say good riddance to Manny, I say they’re all brainwashed by corporate America (and I lower cased corporate on purpose. As it should be.).

Since this is a fantasy baseball blog, first and foremost, I’ll go over the value changes for the Manny trade. Manny might get a slight hit on his value because he’ll no longer have The Green Mawnster to knock balls off of, but Manny’s a hitting savant and I expect him to make the proper adjustments. Also, this trade could be the kind of motivation Manny hasn’t had in almost four years. This does hurt a few other peripheral pieces in SoCal. Let’s do a basic math problem. If the Dodgers play 6 games a week and they have three outfielders, that means they have 18 possible outfield games. Now those 18 games need to be split between 5 outfielders (Ethier, Jones, Kemp, Pierre and Ramirez). So Manny and Kemp get 5 each, which means 10 outfield games. Now you have 8 outfield games to split up. I say Pierre and Jones get between 3 and 4, which relegates Ethier to 1 to 2 games per week. Drop Ethier. His (minimal) value has been zapped.

For Bay, let’s recollect what we saw last year while he battled through the worst slump of his career. Ground ball to short, ground ball to 2nd, ground ball to short and Bay falls into a mental slump where he’s fooled so bad he swings at some pitches while the ball is still in the pitcher’s hand. Bay will have a better lineup around him, he’ll have the The Green Monster to hit doubles off of and he’ll have the 2nd biggest media town breathing down his neck compared to Pittsburgh, which sports a town that forgot they had the Pirates for parts of ‘07 into ‘08. I hope Bay fails, but I’d say there’s only a 50/50 slot of it legitimately happening.

Now the two schmohawks that emerge from this trade with their value slightly knocked up (Hey, “slightly knocked up” sounds like that girl I went to high school with whose name I can’t remember) are Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche. First, Laroche gets reunited with a guy who has the same parents. (BTW, Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time two brothers with a capped letter in the middle of their last name will play together. Actually, Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like some nonsense they would say. Some things they have said recently around Elias Sports Bureau’s headquarters, “There’s no M & M’s in the snack machine for the first time since 1999,” “Leandro mowed our lawn on Tuesday for the first time since March,” and “Jimmy, in Accounting, has the worst halitosis of any Elias Sports Bureau employee ever.” But I digress.) So LaRoche only has to beat out Jose Bautista for playing time. Well, color me not worried. LaRoche hasn’t shown many signs in the majors, but he’s a top-level prospect that you should pick up in deep leagues.

Brandon Moss, the new Pirates outfielder, strikes me as the guy in a trade that no one cares about then ends up having lots of value. Or this could be complete hyperbole. Moss flashed some speed and power in the minors and never at the expense of his average. Now he’s not going to be an in-his-prime Bobby Abreu, but he profiles similarly to Andre Ethier. I know, yawn. But unlike Ethier, Moss may get his at-bats and in NL-only play that can help. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s roundup, I just wanted to post Manny being Manny, make sure to watch until the 1:30 mark when Manny reenacts the play. If you don’t get a kick out of it, you’re dead on the inside.

The Rays - I knew they were stingy with their prospects, but I thought they would at least upgrade their bullpen. Nope.

Fausto Carmona - Bounced back from that razztastic start last time out against the Twins to throw 6 and 1/3 innings and to only give up 2 earned. Liked him a lot coming back from the DL and I think he can give you some quality starts moving forward.

Juan Rivera - HR yesterday. I’m pretty sure I’ve already said I’m never talking about him again. So this is your last heads up.

Jim Edmonds - 2 HRs. I almost yawned between writing the 2 and the HRs.

Rich Harden - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. He’s given up three runs as a Cub and has K’d 39 in four starts. Well, la-di-da. This was still only his first win for the Cubs. So there.

Dave Bush - 7.1 IP, 6 ER. That whole ‘only starting Bush at home’ thing has worked out remarkably well. Almost as well as the whole ’starting Craig Counsell over Russell Branyan’ thing, but not nearly as well as batting Braun fifth. Not sure why Yost wants to get fired, but he’s obviously managing like he does.

Frank Thomas - Was activated from the DL. If you need home runs, I’d take a flier, but don’t drop anyone too valuable because The Big Hurt is aptly named.

Jim Thome - HR yesterday. As I said yesterday when Griffey was traded, Thome’s going to get his at-bats.

Shane Victorino - I was talking to Rudy about how some people bench Victorino or use him as a throw-in in trades and Rudy said an interesting thing to me, “Is Victorino really that different than Carl Crawford?” Things to make you say, “Hmm…”

Chone Figgins - Went 4-for-5 yesterday and almost .400 in the last seven games. As I told someone yesterday, Figgins can get hot and steal a ton of bases in a month or two. Steals is one category you can make up ground real fast. Saves is another.

Ryan Zimmerman - Left yesterday’s game with a hand injury. This could be a great thing for his owners, you might no longer have to delude yourself into thinking he’s valuable.

Khalil Greene - Reports claim Greene decided to place himself on the Disgraceful List when he punched a storage chest and fractured his hand. However, witnesses say the storage chest was starting Greene at SS all season and by all accounts the storage chest actually threw itself at Greene’s hand. Either way, Greene should be dropped in all leagues, even ten team leagues that only use Padres players. (BTW, in a ten team league that only uses Padres players, I think you have to draft Adrian Gonzalez first. Peavy’s great, but you can get pitching late.)

Todd Jones - Speaking of the Disgraceful List, Todd Jones hits the DL. Reason given by the Tigers for this move, “Well… Dur.”

This is the second morning I’ve woken up to a boxscore and I’m pissed off. This has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, and everything to do with baseball baseball. I like to watch the games. The first games were 3amPST (my time). First Selig makes an exhibition game, where none of the players care about the outcome, into the deciding factor for home field advantage in the World Series, now this. The opening of the season can’t take place while I’m fast asleep. It’s just stoopid. When they premiere a huge summer blockbuster is it done at 3am? No. Midnight. Which is reasonable. I would’ve stayed awake for that. The Japanese didn’t even care about the 2nd game because their beloved Dice-K wasn’t pitching. So who are you doing a game in Japan for? Expatriates? Bobby Valentine? Gedde Watanabe?

With that said, if Brandon Moss keeps getting starts, you might have to take a look soon because JD Drew has never been the model of good health. But I would wait until the Sox are back in the US to see how much Moss will play. He does have a good eye and decent pop. Manny looks like he’s starting the season on fire, which is good for his owners, but he’ll still get bored by July/August. Harden looked good last night at 3am (at least from the clips I saw, because it was too damn early to watch the game!), but let’s see Harden stay healthy for three months before we start giving everyone who drafted him a reach around.

Here’s looking forward to Sunday and the actual start of the season.