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Tennessee Mash (RCL 25) is our early leader with 110 points, followed by Playin’ The Field (Beef SAGNOF!) and The Fredsies (ECFBL). The Mash have been led offensively by Josh Hamilton, who has been a steal so far at pick #40. Earlier they had picked Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, and Jay Bruce. Those 4 have hit .320 with 22 home runs and 73 RBI, and added 10 steals. After drafting Chase Utley in round 5, TM selected their first pitcher, David Price. 9th-round pick Gio Gonzalez has been stellar, with an ERA of 1.82 and WHIP under 1. In the last 9 rounds the Mash added Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Jonny Venters, who have contributed 6 wins, 2 saves, and 62 strikeouts, with an ERA of 1.02. Congratulations, Tennessee Mash!
League Toughness: Also, congratulations to RCL 9, the top league with an LCI of 105. League Competitive Index is based on the total stats for the whole league. The index page can be found here. The points formula is: HR + SB + R/3 + RBI/3 + (H-.27*AB) + 2*W + 1.5 * SV + K / 5 + IP – (ER+H+BB/ 2).
Waiver Buzz: The Razzball nation was hopping Friday as everyone rushed to pick up new closer Scott Downs and freshly called up youngsters Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Downs and Harper are 100% owned now, while Mike Trout is on waivers in 1 league.
Expert League: Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) continues to lead, but Rudy shot up to second place with a 19.5-point gain. Craig Kimbrel, Santiago Casilla, Zack Greinke and Brandon Morrow led Rudy to a pitching line of 65 K/6 wins/6 saves/2.08/1.20.
Trades: 9 more trades were processed this week, bringing the total to 51 involving 165 players. A 10-player swap in the ECFBL included Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Lester. Pujols was also traded in an 8-player deal in RCL 46. Hanley Ramirez and Clayton Kershaw were included in that transaction. Bryce Harper was used as a trade chip in The Dread Pirate Returns. He was dealt with Justin Morneau for Billy Butler. You can find all the trades in the fantasy baseball forums.
Weekly Leaders
All about The WHIP (RCL 43) hit .285 with 55 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI, and 4 steals to take offensive honors this week. PETER GAMMONS (RCL 24) had a great pitching line with 16 decisions (11 wins/5 saves) and ratios of 1.80 and 1.09.
Average: .332 (Broth’s Baseball Stars – Fausto or Roberto?)
Runs: 58 (PublicEnemy #1 – Ones are GOOD right?)
HR: 19 (The Otters – RCL 24)
RBI: 57 (Das Haycist – RCL 20)
SB: 15 (All I Do is Nguyen – RCL 25, Worldwide Suicide – Ones are GOOD right?, Moody Broodies – Sphinctory Staff Inflection )
Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce powered Tennessee Mash to the top of the standings with a total of 8 home runs and 21 RBI this week. They also scored 14 runs and stole 4 bases while hitting .432. Tennessee’s pitching was even better, with David Price (2 wins/12 K/1.17/0.85), Brandon Morrow (2 wins/12 K/0.71/1.03), and Gio Gonzalez (1 win/13 K/1.50/1.00) pacing the staff.
In the doubleheader, Nate Schierholtz went 6-for-10 with a homer, 2 runs, 3 RBIs, steal and back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-etc. starts from Bochy, go ahead with your big head self! “This is the year Schierholtz breaks out! And fill up my Merlot!” That’s every Giants fan for the last three years. Then within a few weeks, he’s usually hurt. If Schierholtz is indeed German for pantyhose, he sure gets rips in them quickly. Maybe he should bathe in clear nail polish. (See, ladies, Grey doesn’t forget about you.) Schierholtz has power, he just needs to stay healthy. For now, I’d pick him up in all leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Tim Lincecum – Good news: 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. Bad news: 4 hits, 5 walks, 108 pitches. Reminds me of my stat lines when playing backyard Wiffle Ball. Maybe Timmy needs to throw to a Pitchback instead of a Posey.
Mike Gonzalez – Boras said Gonzalez is expected to sign with a club in the next ten days. Boras better get a deal fast before the terrible closer bubble bursts.
Lorenzo Cain – Expected to come off the DL on Friday. Make room in your fantasy cupboard for Cain…Sugar!
Josh Donaldson – After starting the year on a sub-.100 anti-tear, the A’s brushed him aside like the ABC makeup lady used to do to his grandfather’s hair. He will be sorely missed by opposing pitchers, Fantasy Razzball managers, and frustrated owners in 2-catcher leagues who hoped he could outperform the Barajii of the league.
Adrian Beltre – Should return soon as the MRI showed his leg was normal. Right above the foot and below the hip.
Francisco Liriano – Twins will skip his next start. Guess that’s easier and more legal than getting John McDonald to drop a knee on his head.
Josh Willingham – Out until Friday on maternity leave. A lesson in the birds and the bees brought to you by Grey Albright: Nine months ago there was a Drillingham with a throbbing lardon, asking to porker and now there’s a baby back.
Derek Holland – 6 IP, 7 ER, 13 baserunners, 1 K. An embarrassment to pitchers and mustaches everywhere.
Josh Hamilton – 1-for-4 with his 8th homer as everyone who didn’t draft Hamilton continues to have their balloon Burrst.
Hunter Pence – Missed yesterday with a sore shoulder. Chase Utley scoffed and raised him a sore everything.
Michael Bowden – The key piece in the Byrd trade is headed to the bullpen as predicted here first after reading it elsewhere. He was a top pitching prospect once, but had a pedestrian K-rate as a starter in AAA so they turned him into a closer where he showed some signs of dominance (10+ K/9). Nothing to see right now, but, if he has some early success and Marmol is traded (as I think he will be), Bowden could be saving games by the end of the year.
Cody Ross – 2 HRs yesterday and another one on Saturday (his last game). Hot schmotato!
Daniel Bard – Shut the door yesterday in the 8th inning, but Bobby Valentine said that there’s no “great temptation” to have Bard stay in the bullpen. In related news, Valentine is going for psychological testing.
Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks. Now has an ERA of 1.88. I told you to draft him in the preseason, I drafted him in the preseason and then I dropped him. Why do you make me rue? I don’t wish to rue. I’m fine with no ruing. I’m stirring butter and flour in my soul!
Alex Rios – 3-for-5, hitting .360 on the season and hitting about .500 over the last week. Cust kayin’.
Dontrelle Willis – The O’s confirmed that they signed Willis. This was hilarious to me. I imagine the O’s front office said, “Dah! Yes, we signed Willis. Stop mocking us!”
Chris Capuano – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks. Is it the Year of the Cap? Not probably, no. But he could have end of the rotation appeal in mixed leagues and be one of those guys that’s cheap in NL-Only leagues that can really help you.
Michael Pineda – Headed for an MRI on Tuesday. Here’s the Cliff Notes of a book I wrote (besides this one). The name of this other book, “Signs of Trouble for Your Fantasy Starter.” Chapter One: If your starter is shut down and almost a month later they need an MRI, it’s not good.
CC Sabathia – 8 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks as he has an ERA of 5.27. Without looking at our Player Rater, I’m guessing his FIP is much lower.
Derek Jeter – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, batting .411. So is he an Early Bird Special or a (Fill-in blank for term of older player who has a renaissance year. Regarding that term that I asked for with Beltran last week. I liked Ponce De Leon-g Balls, Hologram Tupac and Dead Cat Bounce, but Rudy nixed them.)?
Dillon Gee – 6 2/3 IP, 7 ER. He alternated good start/bad start last year and he’s continuing this trend. It’s pretty uncanny. It’s like his job is to rope in and frustrate streamers and he takes his job very seriously.
Jason Bay – Left yesterday’s game with bruised ribs, which is nowhere near as delicious as braised ribs.
Hideki Matsui – Rumored to be signing a minor league deal with the Rays. The Rays hope he still has a little left in the tank if they need a lefty DH. Matsui just wants a job and heard good things about their potato chips.
Brandon Morrow – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks. Can we get Scooby on the Case of Morrow’s Missing Ks? He only had 2 starts all last year of 3 Ks or less and he’s already had 3 starts this year like that and his other start was a 4 K effort. His velocity didn’t look bad last night, but I’m starting to get concerned. A guy who walks as many as he does (though he didn’t yesterday), isn’t very cute without Ks.
Krispie Young – Won’t return when his DL stint is up in 15 days. With a ligament tear in his shoulder? Really? Here I thought a ligament tear was a good thing. Just when you think you got the world figured out. Wow. File that in the surpriseapedia.
Wade Miley – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Phillies (Just think, Phils fans, in another 25 years your team will be good again, not like the Red Sox who have to wait 80 years.), and Bauer’s call-up just took two steps back with this Miley effort. The key word with Miley is serviceable. That makes for good real world pitching and only matchups appeal in fantasy.
Justin Upton – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs as he hit his first homer. Formally document it: In the nick of time, Justin.
Eric Hosmer – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games and 4th on the year. He’s still hitting .203, but I bet he’s about to go on a tear and be hitting near .260 by this time next week. Get it, Hosmer, get it!
Tony Campana – 1-for-1 with 2 steals. He stole 2nd base so fast that he actually overran it, ran all the way around the globe, causing time to rewind, and allowing him to steal 2nd again.
Jason Motte – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and the blown save. What a follower! Ooh, all the cool closers are blowing games so he figured he would too.
Bill Hall – Signing a deal with the Orioles to replace Josh Bell on the Triple-A roster. Bell to Hall? This is a big score for the equipment manager.
I watched Mat Latos yesterday. Now I want an eye transplant with someone that watched Jamie Moyer pitch (not when he was first called up because that eye transplant would have cataracts). I wish I could pinpoint what the problem is with Latos, besides looking terrible. He was hitting 95 MPH on the maybe-a-tad-Reds-friendly radar gun for three straight pitches to Beltran. Unfortunately, he threw all three friggin’ pitches in the exact same spot, so, of course, Beltran turned on one. Then he made the next hitter, Holliday, look terrible with offspeed stuff. Like a bachelorette order form, is there somewhere I can check for him to mix in the junk? Does Mesoraco only have one finger on his pitch-calling hand? Is Latos giving up early runs so Dusty can’t throw him into the 11th inning? How do you even give up 5 earned runs in the first two innings on only 6 baserunners? Is that even mathematically possible with only one two-run homer? Why are you making me wrack my brain? And why are you giving up a two out triples to the opposing pitcher?! Latos gets the Giants next. If he can’t make them look like a team that has only three hitters, and one of which they bench, then Latos is going to my bench for the foreseeable future. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Krispie Young – The MRI revealed a ligament tear and who wins this year’s Biggest Loser. Damn you, MRI, and your spoilers! Krispie’s headed to the 15-day DL and the Diamondbacks say he should be fine after a couple of weeks of rest. With a ligament tear in his shoulder? Sounds like they have a ligament tear in their silver lining. This sounds like something that won’t only sideline Krispie for longer than 15 days but also leave him at less than 100% for the rest of the season until an offseason of rest. It’s pretty terrible news. Rico Suave should see the majority of the time in the outfield while Krispie gets himself right. Parra’s pretty yawnstipating from a fantasy perspective for mixed leagues. In NL-Only leagues, he should get you some counting stats. (Wanna hear something that says so much? I added yawnstipating to my computer dictionary. It’s right there in my virtual dictionary next to dork.)
Justin Upton – Where is thumbkin? Back from the MRI to say Upton needs a few days of rest with a bone bruise on his thumb. He did get into yesterday’s game as a pinch runner. Would be just wonderful if he had to slide head first. Hope Kirk Gibson didn’t slo-mo arm pump that in-game move.
A.J. Pollock – 0-for-3 with a caught stealing. How many players does it take to fill-in Krispie’s roster spot? One Pollock. He has good speed (36 SBs last year in the minors), but it’s not clear how much he’ll actually play. Might just be a bat for a few days until Justin’s thumb stops being Upton no good.
Brett Gardner – To the DL with a strained elbow. Huh? What’s he running on his hands like Encino Man? You don’t need an elbow to bunt and run. Put your elbow in a sling and call it macaroni! This kills my RCL team (well, Krispie’s loss kinda hurt that too), but how is there only one DL spot in the RCLs? What were we thinking? Guys (and 4 girls), talk some sense into me Charlotte sometimes, would cha please?
Hiroki Kuroda – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks. Starts like these in The House They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is the reason why I told people to not draft him.
Lance Berkman – Puma reaggravated his calf injury and might hit the DL. Coincidentally, my Cougar’s out for a day or two with shingles.
Carlos Beltran – 1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs. That’s 5 homers and 3 steals. Maybe he’s this year’s old player who comes out of nowhere and has a renaissance year. How do we not have a term for this in the glossary? Please suggest in the comments. Thank you.
Brad Lidge – Davey Johnson revealed that Lidge suffers from vertigo. Still waiting for Davey to choose a closer, or more accurately, to explain The Trouble With Henry.
Ivan Rodriguez – Announced his retirement. Let’s remember the days when his nickname Pudge wasn’t ironic due to the banning of illegal substances that caused him to lose all muscle mass. Pour some andro out for him.
Cliff Lee – 10 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks. I feel like a ten inning game is more rare than a no hitter. (I probably could find out if that was true at the ol’ Google.) Through 10 innings, he threw 102 pitches and 81 of those were strikes. Let’s just say, The Adverb was more than suffixient.
Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks. Lincecum who?
Matt Cain – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks. Bartolo Colon who?
Brian Wilson – Undergoing Tommy John surgery today. They’re still evaluating whether they hairnet his beard or if they have to shave it. If they shave it, the surgery is due to end on Sunday and the homeless family of Lilliputians will need to be relocated.
Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks. Walks really got him in this game…and the hits…and the runs…and the lack of Ks.
Mark Buehrle – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. Of course he pitched a gem. Why wouldn’t he?! Why would I want this kind of start from Latos?! I must be crazy! Yeah, still a little annoyed at Latos. And another thing, if Latos didn’t seem so detestable of a personality, I might be able to let it go!
Joel Hanrahan – Tweaked his Hanrahammy. Should be good to go by the weekend. In his place…
Juan Cruz – Guess who has more saves than Jordan Walden and Heath Bell combined? I grabbed Cruz in one league, then dropped him when I had to fill in for Gardner. Cruz may not see another save all year. If you’re very desperate, then specloselate. (On a related note, I thought of what we can call a top closer’s set-up man, a side salad.)
Grady Sizemore – Cleared for baseball activities. He’ll probably pull his groin scratching himself. I’m only half-punning.
Juan Francisco – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games. The Braves are committed to Glass Chipper like Aguilera should be committed for eliminating Jesse Campbell, but Francisco’s a good name to watch in deep leagues in case he can get more playing time.
Jair Jurrjens – 4 IP, 4 ER. Can the editor who recut Star Wars take Jar-Jar out of the Braves rotation too?
Dan Uggla – 1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his first homer. Still wanna sell him for Skip Schumaker and a bag of Fritos?
Luke Scott – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 3rd homer. Member I said last week to pick him up? Yeah, nothing’s changed yet.
Matt Joyce – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 1 RBI and his 2nd game in a row with a homer. If he’s gonna hit, it will be in the first half. It’s Joyce to wit.
Justin Morneau – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 3 RBIs with his 3rd and 4th homers. Only cussword his fantasy owners are hearing this year is refocused.
Matt Capps – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save. Could he save a game without giving up a run? Just a question.
Kevin Youkilis – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs with his first homer. Youuuuuuuk, speaking through his agent, said, “Tell Valentine there’s his motivation. And Sugarhill Gang invented the rap. So there!”
Lucas Harrell – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks. Anyone with a rotation spot, you own in NL- or AL-Only leagues, so I grabbed Harrell in an NL-Only league. Never looked at his stats. Just grabbed him. Then he pitched well yesterday for the second time in three starts and I was like, “Hey, this guy’s awesome! I wanna see his minor league stats.” So I Googled his name to see his minor league stats, and Googled asked me, “Are you sure you want to see his minor league stats?” Yes, Google! Give ‘em to me! “Oh.” That was my reaction after seeing his stats. Um, yeah, I wouldn’t touch him in mixed leagues.
Aramis Ramirez – 2-for-4 with his first homer. He’s alive! I think.
Omar Infante – Out until Friday with a groin strain. It happened when he was running away from Hanley carrying a bottle of hair dye.
Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer. He’s batting .074 on the year. To get results from Alvarez, the Pirates threatened him with a demotion to Triple-A or worse a trade to the Orioles.
Jake Peavy – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks. Yes, you should own him. No, I’m not joking.
A.J. Pierzynski – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer. When I say hot, you say schmotato.
Doug Fister – Felt renewed discomfort in his abdomen. For Fister owners, that’s a punch to the gut.
Prince Fielder – 2-f0r-4, 2 RBIs and a steal as Major League Baseball tried to increase offense by moving 2nd base five feet from 1st.
Chase Headley – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and TWO HOMERS? He had two homers the entire 1st half last year, and two homers the entire 2nd half for four (stutterer!) total.
Michael Cuddyer – Homered then left Wednesday’s game with a bruised toe. If Cuddyer needs to miss time, guess who gets some time? No, not Eric Young Jr. Tyler Colvin. Could be some pop there. Keep your eyes peeled in deep leagues.
Juan Nicasio – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks. Eh, I’ve seen better starts. Buehrle, for instance, that was better, but I’d continue to roll with Nicasio in most leagues.
Derek Holland – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks. Kinda wish I had Holland instead of Latos right now. Okay, I’ll let it go.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 1 RBI and a steal. I’ve seen some people in the comments ask if they should pick up Kirk. Don’t cheat, Razzballers. Ask if you should pick up Nieuwenhuis. If I gotta spell that shizz, so do you. And, yeah, you should pick him up. Kinda like how I’ve been saying that in the last two weeks of Buys. Yesterday, he hit leadoff. That probably won’t hold, but Bay’s name is short for Sickbay, as in he hasn’t been good in years, and Duda hasn’t had much zippity, doo or dah recently.
R.A. Dickey – 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER. More like U.R.A. Dickey.
The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page. Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty. So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three. Math’s been berry, berry good to me! Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Anibal. I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings? Yeah, crazy like a fox!” In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169. That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012. In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors. He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone. I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1. To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters. Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there. I can only give so much love. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.40/1.18/190
22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter. Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3. If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own. You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks. I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later. As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year. Yes, the Nats will be good. 2012 Projections: 14-6/3.25/1.15/170
23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays. I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95. Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier? Nope. Can he be as productive? Maybe more so. I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza. Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting. 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.40/1.25/190
24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking. Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger! Anibal was that good last year? He (she?) was! His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career. Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year? I guess, but why? He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries. I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name. I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come. I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am. He is the Marlins’ ace. Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on! 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.24/190
25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hanson. I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.” Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not. Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson. Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that. Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it. I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training. Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013. For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson. 2012 Projections: 10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP
26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson. He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year. If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20. Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there. He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year. Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid. Will he shat the bed? I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it. He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price. And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from. If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers. 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.12/180
27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy. It’s sexy and I know it. 2012 Projections: 14-7/3.60/1.10/190
28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me. One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA. What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher. What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of. 2012 Projections: 14-9/3.60/1.20/185
29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier. He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero. Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80. Romero — what a joker! His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12. Um, they’re okay. Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy. Sorry, RR Cool Jay. 2012 Projections: 13-12/3.75/1.20/170
30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis. Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs. What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy). Like a 1800′s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields. 2012 Projections: 13-11/3.70/1.25/190
31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson. Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year. I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that. 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP
32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Luebke. I call this tier, “Yummo!” I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy. I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay. As for Friedman saying Moore is going to get a full season, I’ll believe it when I see it. ZiPS is giving him 140 IP, others are giving him 160… I can’t bring myself to go above 150. He still doesn’t have a full season under his belt yet in the majors. Too many things can go wrong. I will say if I gave him 180 IP, I’d raise the ERA projections about .20, WHIP about .02, Wins (3) and Ks (20). 2012 Projections: 10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings
33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy. There’s lots of love in that post. If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.70/1.30/195
34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance. I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties). Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck. I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year. If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010. The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland. 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.27/190
35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game? What a dog-faced fool! March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit! All of you!” Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino. March Grey, “Hoo-ah!” Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year. If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid. 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.17/160
36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013. If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot. If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands. Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions. But what fun is that? (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections. Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.) 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings
37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post. A real snoozer in the inverse. 2012 Projections: 13-9/3.85/1.28/210
38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings. I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription. Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02. You need more? You shouldn’t. But fine, for you anything! He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors. He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco. When I say giddy, you say up. Giddy… Up! Giddy… Up! P. Diddy… Up! Fooled you. 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.25/1.09/170
39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.” I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter. His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid. My dislike is unwarranted, basically. Right? Or not right? He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings. Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either. We can be friends. Wait by your phone, I’ll call you. 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.25/165
40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene. Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue. We’re gonna take a break this year. His peripherals last year were a mess. 6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats. 2012 Projections: 11-6/3.80/1.25/130
This is ridiculous. Brandon Morrow has been a sleeper for me going on three years. I realize this. Hence my pointing-it-out’ing. Here’s what I have to ask myself. Is he just another Ricky Nolasco? A guy that consistently has an ERA higher than his xFIP and you should just ignore? Nolasco had a 5.06 ERA in 2009 and a 3.23 xFIP. Pegged by everyone and their monkey’s uncle to be a breakout candidate in 2010. Monkey’s Uncle, “Actually, I liked Mat Latos.” Then in 2010, Nolasco flopped again — 4.51 ERA vs. a 3.37 xFIP. At that point, I gave up hope for Nolasco because his K-rate started falling. In 2011, Nolasco once again gave fantasy owners false hope with a 4.67 ERA vs. a 3.55 xFIP. But now his K-rate is has gone from falling star to Vampires in Brooklyn bad. RN needs exactly that to nurse his ERA back to respectability. I don’t think Morrow does. I think the sun will come out for Morrow. So what can we expect of Brandon Morrow of 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Big difference between Nolasco and Morrow is a terrific K-rate — 10+ in 2011. OH, GREY, IT’S JUST A K-RATE AGAIN, ISN’T IT? I understand your frustration, Mr. Al Caps. Morrow’s BABIP was about right at .299, but everything you want of a solid pitcher was a bit lacking. He didn’t leave men on base (65.5%), balls in parks (10.4% HR/FB) and he walks hitters (3.46). But — and like J. Lo this is a big but — his walk rate last year, always a huge issue for him, was the best of his career. Great sign! (Sorry for the non-sarcastic exclamation mark, but Morrow gets me excited.) The month of June last year is exactly what we want from Morrow over the course of a season. It wasn’t a particularly lucky or unlucky month. He gave up a few homers (3), struck out hitters (9.87), didn’t walk a whole lot (3.19) and left baserunners on (69%). His BABIP of .284 was a tad lucky, but not bonkers. All doable numbers. That month he had a 3.77 ERA. If you have a guy striking out almost 10 batters per nine, a 3.77 ERA is a thing of beauty. For next year, I’ll give him 13-9/3.85/1.28/210. I love Morrow!* (*If Morrow fails to live up to expectations in 2012, he’s dead to me. This will be our last dance.)
