Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hey, I can bench Eric Hosmer!  That was the first thing I thought when I picked up Matt Adams.   First stop for Hosmer is my bench, next stop waivers.  Yesterday, our prospect writer Scott said this about Adams, “Despite the impressive audition (in Spring Training), St. Louis sent him to Triple-A Memphis where he’s hit .338/.373/.597 with 9 HR through his first 150 plate appearances… With an advanced approach, solid on base skills, and plus power, Adams has a chance to do damage in the bigs right away.  He’s worth an add in most formats.  There’s really not much else to say, except Grey is handsome.”  I obviously wouldn’t have copied and pasted all of that if I didn’t agree.  In a 12 team mixed league, I found room for him (then again my offense could use anything at this point — I have Brian Dozier!) by losing Anthony Rizzo.  I do think Rizzo will be up soon and is worth owning, but I could only speculate on one “young 1st baseman that will fix my other young 1st baseman problem (Hosmer!).”  With Berkman possibly out a while (as of this writing, his timetable wasn’t clear, but it didn’t look good and he was talking of retirement), Adams just needs to hit to get everyday playing time (please, deity of my choice, let him hit).  At first, I could see him platooning a bit with Carpenter so don’t overreact on who you drop when you pick up Adams, but if you’re hurting at 1st base, get smart and don Adams.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Aroldis Chapman – Hey, he’s now the closer!  Mazel tov!  I remember when he was just a new Cuban raftee and, now, he’s a man.  A real fine chap, man.  He has yet to allow an earned run in 22 1/3 innings to go with 39 Ks.  Man, that is beautiful.  Shoot, I have to change my shorts.  And…I’m back!  You miss me?

Ryan Ludwick – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 4th homer.  Just when it looked like Heisey finally bought himself a longer leash, Ludwick comes along to confuse Dusty.  (Yes, they both played yesterday, but that was only because there was a DH.)

Paul Konerko – After taking one off his face on Friday, the White Sox said they should be able to punim back in on Tuesday.

Jake Peavy – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  No kidding, who would you prefer:  Peavy or Lincecum?  Is it close?

Gordon Beckham – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in the last three games.  If it’s not the Rip Van Winkle of sleepers.  If you’re desperate for infield help, I could see grabbing him for your middle infidel spot.

Adam Dunn – 1-for-4 with his 14th homer.  Like one of those weekly Bieber’s been trampled by 1400 screaming Asian girls rumors, the reports of Dunn’s death were also premature.  Rob Thomas would say he’s come un-Dunn.  Fantasy Baseball Blurb Police, “Bieber and Rob Thomas in the same blurb?  C’mon, man, don’t make me ticket you.”

Ike Davis – Terry Collins (who?) said that Davis could be headed to the minors.  All kidding aside, have the Mets doctors checked him again for Valley Fever?  Actually, has anyone but the Mets doctors checked him for Valley Fever?

Kevin Youkilis – Phillies and Indians are “monitoring” Youuuuuuuk.  I found this funny for some reason.  Next time I’m caught sitting outside an ex-girlfriend’s house, I’m going to say I was just “monitoring” her.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see Youuuuuuk moved.  Red Sox don’t want to send Middlebrooks down and Youuuuuuk’s so welcome in the Red Sox clubhouse that Bobby Valentine commissioned Billy Ocean to remix his own song to, “Get Outta My Team, Get Into My Veggie Wrap With Swiss Chard.”

Josh Beckett – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. Cliff Lee, who went 7 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks, as the two last place teams battled.  The Comatose Red Sox and Phillies fans, that conked out the day before the season started, blink their eyes open, “Don’t you mean first place?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and 7th on the season.  Why do I wish he had 1st base eligibility and I drafted him instead of Hosmer?

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5 with his third homer in as many games.  Thomas Peefuttle who?!  Actually, that’s a made-up name, but Aviles has been good even if you compare him to someone who’s real.

Jonathan Lucroy – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 7 RBIs and 2 homers.  Actually, I wouldn’t mind dropping my whole RCL offense and having only catchers.

Corey Hart – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs with his 9th homer as the Brewers exploded for 16 runs.  Elias Sports Bureau said Corey Hart was rated by People Magazine as The Ugliest Man Alive.  Actually, Elias didn’t say that, but here’s something that was overheard at the Stamford compound of Elias Sports Bureau.  “In Accounting, Jeff and Dave have casually joked about switching wives twenty-seven times in the last two weeks for a new office record.  Also, Jeff recorded it a record 17 times to be used for blackmail purposes later.”

Colby Lewis – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Astros.  In related news, American League pitchers are fully supportive of the Astros’ 2013 league switch.

Vance Worley – Has a bone chip in his elbow.  He says he’s going to “man up” and pitch through the pain.  Who’s he Bruce Willis cutting a bullet out of his arm and bandaging it up with a shirt he rips with his teeth?  Ridiculous to think Worley’s going to be anywhere near as effective and not just end up back on the DL.

Anthony Rizzo – That billboard counting down is not how many hours until the America’s Got Talent premiere, that’s until The Scer arrives.  The Cubs confirmed yesterday what I was saying on Friday.  Rizzo’s arrival, or arrizzal, is imminent.

Max Scherzer – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 15 Ks. There’s the eggs Woody Allen was talking about that we need.  Hopefully, if you dealt with the bad half of the schizo-Scherzer, you also got this good half.

Rod Barajas – B*****s ain’t shizz usually, but, for those in deep leagues, B*****s has 2 homers in his last three games.

Greg Dobbs – 3-for-4, and .154 over the last week, but whatever.  I just want to rant about how stupid it is that Ozzie is splitting up Hanley and Stanton with Dobbs.  I get the whole righty/lefty thing, but is that really going to change how opposing managers think when they see Greg Dobbs?  It’s not like they’re saying to themselves, “I’d go to my righty here but Dobbs, who’s hitting .253 against righties over the last three years, will kill me.”  Move Giancarlo into the cleanup spot, I need RBIs!

Josh Johnson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  After the game, his porn star brother, Gosh Johnson sprayed the team with what everyone is hoping was champagne.

Emilio Bonifacio – Ended up on the 15-day DL with a sprained thumb.  When asked how it was feeling, Bonifacio stayed true to his name and tried to put on a good face.

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks to lower his ERA to 2.15.  He said he’d have an ERA under 2 if it wasn’t for Indians fans.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4, now batting .355.  At Sunday brunch, he had a mimosa, grapefruit wedges and a slam & two legs.  Trout homered and stole a base off Bass, something the media is calling “Fish on Fish” crime.

Vernon Wells – Headed to the DL with a thumb injury.  He’ll have some free time now to reply to all his fan mail that is meant for the actor from Weird Science, Vernon Wells.

Alexi Amarista – 1-for-6, with a steal.  He was the piece the Padres got from the Angels for Frieri.  Here’s what Bud Black said Scioscia told him, “The first thing (Scioscia) said was this guy can play six positions, he can feel comfortable with them anywhere, he swings the bat and he has some speed, so that versatility plays much better in the National League.”  Right, nothing at all like Maicer Izturis.  With the Padres now having (n)O-Dog, Amarista has been playing 2nd base.  In the minors, he hit for a decent average with speed.  In the majors, I could see him having a .270 average with 25 steals.  Definitely NL-Only grab.  I’d hold for now in most mixed leagues.

Justin Smoak – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 5th homer.  I told you last week to grab him for his road trip and now he heads back to Safeco, so where there’s Smoak, there’s other options off the waiver wire.

Mike Carp – Has homers in back-to-back games.  Carpe Carp!

Wei-Yin Chen – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER as he was pitchslapped by Strasburg.  I’ve seen Tony Pena pitch better than Chen.  And Tony was pitching in a Home Run Derby.

Danny Espinosa – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs with his 4th homer.  Going on about ten days of hot schmotatoness.

Jesus Flores – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  If you lost Wilson Ramos, Flores could basically do the same thing.  And that’s a promise or my name isn’t Grey “El Toro” Albright.

Stephen Strasburg – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks, but left the start with bicep tightness.  He said he should be fine for his next start.  He’s going to apply some Hot Stuff and then not touch his groin for the next five days.

Mark Ellis – Will be out for at least 6 weeks as the doctor performed an emergency procedure on him to relieve pressure in his leg.  The Dodgers will turn to Justin “The Inspector” Sellers and Elian “I Wouldn’t Mind Checking Out Miami Again” Herrera.  Elian and Sellers aren’t much to look at outside of deep NL-Only leagues, especially if they’re sharing time.  Since Ellis will be out, the Dodgers may now ask Flavor Flav to no longer stand above Dee Gordon’s head with his giant ticking clock.

Jeff Francoeur – 4-for-4, but I’m giving two of them to the now batting in the seven hole, Hosmer.

Wade Miley – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I see you moving your cursor towards picking up Miley.  Stop and back away from your computer.  Go splash some coffee on your face.  You’re sleepwalking.

Brandon McCarthy – Went to the DL, but the A’s found no damage to his scapula.  Sounds like there should be a chicken in there, i.e., Chicken Scapula.  BTW, when you’re in a fancy restaurant and the waiter rolls up the cart carrying your entrees, make sure you say, “They weren’t joking when they said it was all a la carte.”  It’ll make you look classy.

In the first real game of the season (it was real, right?  I looked for highlights, but ESPN was showing a Red Sox split-squad game instead).  From the box score, I heart Brandon McCarthy.  His line was 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners and 3 Ks.  Yeah, the Mariners aren’t very good at hitting, but a quality start is a quality start.  Brandon McCarthy celebrated by taking out a Tokyo girl with red streaks in her hair who lives on the other side of the tracks.  Sorry Peking Ducky!  I tried to get Rudy to draft McCarthy in one of our leagues on Tuesday night, and was disappointed to see he went to someone else for $9.  I have his projections down as 8-11/3.50/1.17/140.  Last year, his home ERA and WHIP was 2.65 and 1.11.  He may not strike out many hitters, but there’s not many pitchers late I’d trust to actually help my WHIP.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw in spring training (and real baseball) for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Justin Smoak – 0-for-5.  That two day pick up has worked out well so far!  While he’s at it, maybe he can hit a line drive into Florida and injure Anibal Sanchez.

Ichiro Suzuki – 5 ABs, 4 singles, 2 balls out of the infield.  That’s a .800 AVG in baseball and .400 AVG in sumo.

Dustin Ackley – Home run and steal for the first official slam & legs of the season.  Back in November, I went over my Dustin Ackley fantasy.  I wrote it while beating Steve Wiebe at Donkey Kong.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  With the week layoff between the second and third Mariners game, is he gonna start twice in the first four games of the Mariners season?  Cause that would be kinda awesome…If I owned him anywhere…which I don’t…  Sticking with the dot, dot, dot theme:

Michael Morse – His collagen injection paid wonders and was able to secure a sugar daddy may make it back for Opening Day.  If not, he shouldn’t miss much time.

Drew Storen – Expected to start the year on the DL.  Of course he is.  He’s only thrown 2 innings this spring.  As I mentioned in our fantasy baseball podcast, Henry Rodriguez is looking to me like one of those middle relievers that comes out of nowhere and Ks a shizzton and ends up being more valuable than your number three fantasy starter that you were crazy about in March and wanted to kill in May.  Think Venters instead of Liriano last year.  Actually, think of Venters instead of Liriano last year as long as you don’t have any sharp objects around.  No, a comparison to Venters isn’t completely apt.  Rodriguez’s WHIP might be more in line with a Marmol.  But he gets Ks, should get innings and may get saves.  Who’s standing in his way?  Lidge?  Oy.  If I wanted straight saves, I’d go Lidge first.  He will probably be the first guy to see ninth inning looks.  It doesn’t mean he will be the last guy to see saves in Storen’s stead.

Justin Morneau – The 2nd best Canadian 1st baseman is starting to heat up as spring training comes to a close.  He’s hit 3 HRs in the past couple days.  Hopefully, he doesn’t rub it in to Brian Roberts at the next Concussion Anonymous meeting.

Brian Wilson – His beard must be itchy because the Giants scratched him from Wednesday’s game.  If you drafted him, hope you enjoy wild rides.  Follow his gimp’s lead and handcuff him with Sergio Romo and/or Santiago Casilla.  (For saves, I’d go Casilla first.)

B.J. Upton – Headed to the DL to start the year as B.J.’s back is still Upton-o-good after colliding with Desmond Jennings in the OF.  They are just too fast.  The Rays have to regulate them like NASCAR to avoid this stuff in the future.  Steals ain’t got no face, but they require a functioning back.  Upton said he could miss only a few games (three), and doesn’t expect to miss more than a few weeks.  Gulp.  Hopefully it’s the former if former means the first one.  Brandon Guyer should get some playing time in the mean’s while.  Take note those of you in 30-team MLB leagues.

Jed Lowrie – Jammed his thumb.  Thumb up the jam, thumb it up!  Sorry, that always gets me.  Lowrie said he should be back in a few days.  Sounds like a stereotypical Sparky Anklebiter injury.  So a player with too much can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness needs to put his finger on ice.

J.J. Hardy – Received a cortisone shot in his shoulder yesterday, which is a steroid (tomato-potato, I guess).  I didn’t like Hardy going into the spring, but the one thing he offered was power.  How you think the power’s gonna be with a sore shoulder?  Yup.

Chris Carpenter – Having a bone spur removed, will be sidelined a couple of months.  No, this is not the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter, it’s the Red Sox’s Chris Carpenter.  What a jinxed name.  This is a warning to anyone underage getting a fake ID.  Don’t go with Leo Nunez or Fausto Carmona.  The authorities will be all over you.

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

This is it, fellas and three girl readers. The last train is leaving the station. The giddy has just about got up and went. It’s your last chance and I’d throw every single pitcher, not just the ones I have listed here if it meant the difference in my league. You need to do what you do. The line for last week was 5.02 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 57 Ks and 5 Wins in 77 IP.  Um, that’s hideous.  If I were to remove Eveland, Huff and Lincoln, ERA would drop to 3.52.  So most the damage was done by three guys.  Still, blech.  Let’s see if I can avoid recommending Lincoln for a third week!  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%. These streamers are in no particular order. Also, in the final days of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 23rd

Carl Pavano – Against the Indians this year, he’s been a Pava…yes.  See what I did there?  Spectacular!

Rick Porcello – The deal right now, in these last few days of September, is go big or go home or don’t go big and don’t go home.  In other words, you have to decide if you need to start a whole mess of guys to try and win, or if you can coast like the Phils.  Don’t fully trust Porcello but he’s better than some other schmohawks.

R.A. Dickey – He hasn’t been bad in two months and he gets the playoff-bound Phils.  I do tend to shy away from knuckleballers with Dickey being one.  (Must’ve been so hard for him growing up with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  I imagine it’s hard for anyone under the age of 45 to be a knuckleballer.  Knuckleballers don’t exactly pull the girls.  Or maybe they don’t pull girls so that’s why they become knuckleballers.  Deep thoughts with Grey Albright.)

Brett Myers – I nearly put Drew Pomenranz here too (his opponent).  One million ways to stream, choose one.

Aaron Harang – A few pitchers I liked for today were left off because they were just above 50% owned.  Basically, every pitcher on this Friday is a good spot start.

Saturday, September 24th

Cory Luebke – As good as Friday was for spot starters, Saturday’s that bad.  For full disclosure, I nearly suggested Jerome Williams, but then I thought about Jerome Williams and I decided nah.  Not a capital nah or a no way, just a small quiet nah.

Sunday, September 25th

Mike Minor – Not great matchups today either.  I mean, there’s some good pitchers going but they’re owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Minor’s at least good for some Ks.  BTW, this start could change if the Braves have already clinched.  Then Detwiler’s start vs them wouldn’t look as bad.

Edwin Jackson – Gave me a pretty lousy start last time he appeared in the borderline starter post (5 IP, 5 ER), but I’m a glutton for punishment.  Not gluten, gross.

Monday, September 26th

Randall Delgado – Will be a bit dependent on where the Braves are in the playoff race, but whether they’re in it or out of it, they’re going against the Phils who have packed it up.

Randy Wells – Only because he goes against the Padres in Petco.  On a related note, what are the Cubs doing in San Diego at the end of the season?  I can only imagine how well this would’ve went down if the Cubs were in the playoff chase… Okay, as hard as that is to imagine.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s only listed here because he was under 50% owned when I wrote this up.  I imagine by Monday he won’t be under 50% anymore.  He might not even be by today.

Jason Vargas – Him and McCarthy go against each other.  I don’t stream two pitchers in the same game, but chances are McCarthy will be gone and Vargas could throw a decent game, as well.

Tuesday, September 27th

Jeanmar Gomez – Sounds like a Swedish Latino, doesn’t he?  Swexicano?  Not the greatest of matchups with Gomez going against the Tigers if it wasn’t for the fact the Tigers will be resting for the playoffs.

Wednesday, September 28th

R.A. Dickey – Look at me, double dipping on Dickey this week.  That’s what she said!  Though I’m not sure why she would say that.  It’s not like it would reflect well on her.

Eric Surkamp – Unlike previous years, the Rockies folded up their blankets and checked out in August.  If Surkamp’s gone, I’d look at his opponent, Pomeranz, simply because the Giants aren’t that good.

Brett Myers – The last day of the season is actually a great day to stream pitchers.  Hitters take the last day off, managers bring in Triple-A hitters just to give them a chance to play, people check out, basically.

Brad Peacock – Thankfully, he’s not facing Dickey on the last day of the season because then my head would’ve exploded.  The one on my shoulders.