Man it was a crazy weekend!  I think the biggest event was I saw a dude with a Fangraphs shirt on.  Way to wear your heart on your sleeve!  With a 79.8% confidence.  Then my boy James Paxton was straight up nasty, striking out the White Sox in order in the first inning and turning in a good start.  Pour the syrup, hoser!  Oh, and I got engaged…

But despite all that hooplah, I’m back, I’m fierce, and I’m ready to hit the Pitcher Profile harder than Wade Miley at the free lobster Golden Corall!  “That’s just mean, JB…”  Well, what was really mean was if you started Miley in his last start, tagged for 10 runs against the Royals.  “Damn that Alex Gordon for bringing me those KC ribs!  I had the meat sweats before I hit the field!”  Even so, Miley bounced back well yesterday, and still has a surprising 144 Ks in 156.1 IP.  He needs three more to surpass his 147 career-high last year that took him 200+ innings, so he’s taken a giant step forward.  Which may or may not sound like Jurassic Park.  Ok, I’m done!  Here’s how Miley looked yesterday, with some analysis-ation on if he can help your fantasy squads down the stretch:

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I’m going to be completely honest with you……. bear with me I’ve spent the past 8 years in sales this isn’t something I’m used to. I loathe John Lackey. I hate his voice, I hate his face, I hate the way his mouth is always open as if it was some 24 hour 7-11, but most of all I hated the way he was overvalued in fantasy and reality during his time with the Angels. After posting a 6.47 ERA in 2011 I figured the man I mockingly call The Muppet was done, off to the land of Dontrelle Willis. Then after sitting out 2012 for the now mandatory Tommy John surgery he came back a different player. Keeping hitters off balance with great sequencing, Lackey was one of the big surprises for the World Champions last season. Thus far this season it’s been more of the same (if not better). He enters tonight’s game against the Tigers with a 5-2 record, a 3.57 era, and an 8.83 k rate, the highest of his career. In fact, outside of two rough outings back to back against the Yankees and the Orioles back in mid-April, he’s provided a quality start each time he’s taken the mound for the Sawx. The only thing that could derail his season is inappropriate text messages from a member of the media. Well that and Ian Kinsler and the Tigers. Over the years, several members of the Tigers (some of which will be covered later on!) have owned Lackey but none quite like Kinsler. In 39 PA’s Kinsler has a 1.345 OPS with 4 hr’s, 9 steaks, and a couple of steals. That sample size ain’t small folks (that’s what she said) and that OPS is huge! (that’s what Bill James said…?) Kinsler is a must own at 2b in all lineups over at DraftKings. With a cost of $4,900 he’s not cheap but I think based on his history he’s well worth the premium price.

B-T-Dubs guys (and 4… maybe 5 girl readers) if you haven’t played daily fantasy over at Draftkings you should. In fact just for signing up you’ll get a free entry into a contest….so click here and do it now…….I’m waiting….are you going to click? I don’t have all day folks, I got poopy diapers to change and 10 minute bathroom trips to check my fantasy teams to make…..Perfect, now let’s move on.

Dubba B-T-Dubs if you don’t trust me, the genius Rudy Gamble has put together another amazing tool in the DFSBot to aid you in finding value in your Daily Fantasy persuits.

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Earlier this week, I played guarantee fairy by marking guys likely to rebound or drop-off based on their BABIP differentials (actual vs. expected). Justin Morneau was a red flag because his expected BABIP is 34+ points lower than his actual BABIP, however this is the case for other Rockies, Brandon Barnes and Troy Tulowitzki even more-so. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are just behind Morneau as well. What I’m saying is that it’s a generalizable (Colorado) effect, and isn’t too much of a concern in Morneau’s case. The lineup stack probably exacerbates the effect as well.

On the other hand, while Prince Fielder is likely to rebound based on expected BABIP, the ground ball increase and hitting into the defensive shift is really hurting him, meaning I think his issues will somewhat sustain all year.

For this post (using this same matrix), let’s look at some MLB catchers and corner infielders to replace Matt Wieters and Brandon Belt long-term, and who should rebound at least from an expected BABIP perspective (<10% ownership on ESPN as of 5/12). Here is how I have them ranked:

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It’s official, DraftKings has broken me. It started with Tyler Lyons getting destroyed at home by the Cubs on Monday and I never fully recovered. The doctors say I’ve been catatonic since then only to wake late Thursday night shouting ‘they bat .188 against opposing LHP you !#@$)(%#$@%@!’ Needless to say, I’m typing this from what my wife has lovingly coined ‘the fun house’ and what with all the white padded walling and little cups of multi-colored, pill-form heaven, I have to say I’m feeling much better now. Or is it I can’t feel anything? When the doc asked me to take a look at some pictures to tell him what I saw, he said he was amazed by the findings. In every single inkblot, I saw Daily Fantasy values. Here I saw the Stream-o-Nator pointing out that Tanner Roark was a top 10 stream play on the day. Here I saw the DFSBot tell me he was undervalued by $300 relative to what his expected outcome was, making him a great value play. And here…well that was clearly Yngve Malmsten covered in butter playing ukulele to a bunch of Travelocity Gnomes at the Grand Ole Opry. Sadly, the doctor now says I can’t leave but at least there’s wi-fi here. So without further ado, here’s some more Razzball picks for today’s DraftKings contests for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…

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There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one…

a) I can get a good look at Luck by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.

b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.

c)  You: Prince Fielder, Hmmmm, he should get better.”

      Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”

d) The season is drivin’ along, la-de-da, woo. And you have Justin Morneau batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.

Now let’s see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You’re drivin’ along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN’T STOP! “Oh my God, I’m burning alive! And this isn’t a fire sale! No! I can’t feel my legs!” Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, “Oh my God”. New guy’s around the corner puking his guts out…

…Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.

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I know I’ve had some requests for more fun pitchers, but Dillon Gee was a guy I ranked high and a guy I kept high.  And very early on “I tried to figure out why… I had him so high!”, but lately dude has been tossin’ gas!

The very under-appreciated Gee ended 2013 on a tear, pitching with a 2.41 ERA from May 30 to September 15 – with 100 Ks in 137.1 IP in 20 starts.  So ridiculously under the radar that Lord Helmet must’ve jammed it!

As a non-Mets fan and non-Gee owner in any leagues at the current present, I haven’t buckled down to watch any of his starts as of late.  And with three scoreless outings out of his past four – giving up two runs total in those four – I decided to break down his start yesterday at the Rockies and if Gee should be owned in a lot more than 38% of leagues:

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Stop me if you’ve heard this before but Colorado is playing at home and that’s a good thing for your DraftKings team. Yes, duh to the derp degree. We knows it now! With that said, you’re always looking for a way to get in on that action on the cheap. Tulo? He’s too high at $5,400. CarGo? Car Go bye bye at $5,700. And even Blackmon is nearing blackout territory at $4,600. What’s a playa to do? Well, you start looking at matchups and realize Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for today. Let me indulge you with something you either already know or could look up: MadBum is an LHP. Just in case you’re five and reading this – and you shouldn’t be, you have been advised – that doesn’t stand for Lego Harry Potter. Nay, we’re talking left-handed pitchers and that’s one of the few types of pitchers Drew Stubbs has handled well for most of his career. You see, little Stubby may have issues against righties but he’s handled the southpaw quite well for his career. In 618 career at-bats, Drew has 24 HRs while hitting .273. Now I’m no soothsayer but given that Michael Cuddyer is on the DL, I’d be surprised if the Rockies didn’t give Drew a day in right field and bat him in the two hole. At first, I thought this was lunacy on my part but then asked the Hitter-Tron what he had to say and he ranked him 18th overall for outfielders on the day. And then he asked me about my tail pipe and I left the room as fast as possible. You nasty, ‘Tron! Anywho, even though the Stream-O-Nator is ok with Madison in Coors, I think we all know the drill here. Get in on the cheap and if he’s in the starting lineup, peeps, cuz that’s the Sweet Spot…oh, did I just drop a promo mid-sell on Stubbs? Yes I did. Check the link if you’d like to win around $100K. You know, no biggie. With that said, let’s move along. Here are some other picks for today’s DraftKings contests for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…

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We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2014 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2014 Rockies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Bryan Kilpatrick from Purple Row.

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You take a guy fresh off a boat — let’s call him Sailor — and Sailor’s boat left a country that didn’t have baseball. After explaining what baseball is, you tell Sailor that one baseball team, the Yankees, throws dollars at free agents. After a lengthy explanation that dollars are our currency and why presidents are on low denominations and a non-president is on the hundred and what the hell a free agent is, you then list the top free agent bats for this year: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran. You then ask Sailor which of those guys the Yankees will get. He’ll probably say one of the first couple of players. Or maybe he’ll say Robinson or Cano Jacoby because he won’t know their names and confuse where commas are when spoken. It’s such an obvious Yankee move to get Ellsbury that even Sailor figured it out. It reeks of throwing money at the team. Or maybe the Yankees just figured if they can’t work with Jay-Z, they’ll work with J-E. The short porch in right won’t hurt Ellsbury. What could hurt him is just about everything else that seems to hurt him every other year. Since 2009, his games played has been 153, 18, 158, 74 and 134. Saberhagenmetricans shudder at the thought of drafting Ellsbury following a big year. I’m with them. I won’t be drafting him anywhere, especially not after he gets bumped up in drafts from his newly adjusted Yankee tax. For 2014, I’ll give him the line of 98/13/57/.279/32. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2014 fantasy baseball:

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Ah, yes, fall is in the air. *cues up Don Henley’s “Boys of Summer”* As the calendar turns to September, the days get shorter, my seersucker suit returns to its rightful place in the closet, the kids are lovingly shipped off to military school, every tattooed hipster barista in town attempts to sell me something that tastes of pumpkin (I just want coffee flavored coffee dammit) and the fantasy baseball playoffs are set to begin. Our fake baseball season is nearing its completion, its finale, the culmination of 22 weeks of jams and crams that have hopefully led you to the edge of the fantasy glory hole. No more Ike Davis wisecracks, no more Ryan Braun shrunken gonad jokes and no more contact with Heidi Watney per court order. 500 feet, phfffft! So, my dear Razzballin’ gurus, if you’re reading, you’re leading and sprinting to the finish line of this marathon known as the fantasy baseball season. Quick question? Is there a fantasy marathon league? No? Damn, I was going to draft Gebregziabher Gebremariam. Oh well, it’s time to win this baseball thing. Somehow it all feels anticlimactic. Even if we win, if we win, HAH! Even if we win, it just wouldn’t matter because all the really good looking girls would still go out with the guys from Mohawk because they’ve got all the money! Sorry, in an effort to be inspiring I went all Meatballs there for a moment. It’s time to jam it or cram it.

Please, blog, may I have some more?