Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers, Week 14

July 03, 2010 By: Smokey Category: Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers 18 Comments →

The week that was showed us that Carlos Zambrano has issues, no big trades yet and LeBron is going to the Knicks. Or I wish anyways. It’s stealing all the headlines right now in the sports world, that and the underpants gnomes. I don’t know how they know I am asleep but they get me every time. One week to go until the All-Star break, I can’t wait to see who actually participates in the HR derby. Vote for Votto is all I’m saying. Week 14 is a busy scheduled week, lots of high end talent with some lower level fodder.  Here are the two start middle of the road guys that may peak your interest this week in fantasy baseball.

Ian Kennedy
(Chc vs. Gorzellany) (Fla vs. Robertson)
Yikes, 9 walks, Ian? Horrible. There is always a but though. Faces 2 teams in the top 10 for K’s. Could sneak a win and 12 K’s. Wearing down a little, don’t expect much going forward.

Madison Bumgarner (@Mil vs. Wolf)( @Was vs. Martin)
Watched his start on DVR, pretty decent command inside and out, changes levels nicely, then got killed by one AB vs. Cameron. Prospect status makes sense. Will fool teams first time through. Then a fall back to earth is probable. Number 2-3 starter stuff.

Justin Masterson ( @Tex vs. Wilson) (@TB vs. Niemann)
I don’t care how inconsistent he is, watch him pitch. He has the gift of grounders. Two tough hitting teams loom as a downfall. I think he pulls a 10 K game this week.  Call me the President of the Just Master Fan Club.

Armando Galarraga (Bal vs. Millwood) (Min vs. Slowey)
A month post-Perfecto, and he has raised his ERA 2 points. Congrats. Gets Baltimore, so how bad can he be as a 2 start guy this week? Prolly a 7.5 ERA for the week bad. Dude only has 18 K’s all year.

Brad Lincoln (@Hou vs. Rodriguez) (@Mil vs. Wolf)
Coming off best start so far. Gets the weak hitting ‘Stros. Is definitely worth a look this week based on the 2 starts. League depth will dictate if he climbs on board your team.

Dave Bush (SF vs. Sanchez) (Pit vs. Karstens)
Head for the mountains. Giving up a whopping .287 BAA. Let it be said that Dave Bush makes everyone look like an All-Star. Does get the Pirates, it’s like mom kissing a broken leg to make it feel better.

Vicente Padilla (Fla vs. Volstad) (Chc vs. Silva)
Deserved to get plunked by CC. Matchup wise he is better than average, Silva has to suck some time, right? Pretty decent peripheral guy, which I actually had to look up.

John Ely (Fla vs. Robertson) (Chc vs. Gorzellany)
Minus one start he’s been borderline rosterable in deeper formats. Sneaky K potential and okay matchups for the week.

Jeff Francis (StL vs. Suppan) (SD vs. Richard)
I think he is hitting that first wall after coming back from injury. Looked like poo, previously against SD. Gets some revenge, and Suppan hasn’t drank the Duncan juice yet. No K’s or the love would be better.

Chris Volstad (@Lad vs. Padilla) (@Ari vs. Enright)
I wanna like this guy as much as Masterson but he isn’t as good. Way too many hits. Gets 2 decent coin flip matchups. Pitches a run and a half better at home.

Giant Bum…Garnering Attention In SF

June 11, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell 366 Comments →

Hello, new readers who found us from Googling the title!  You probably weren’t expecting a fantasy baseball site.  Don’t let that stop you.  We’re an equal opportunity offender.  And if the title didn’t interest you, how about Giants to add Bum to ‘Cum topped staff?  Hello, our newest readers that didn’t find us due to the title, but did find us due to that last sentence!  You probably will be offended.  But say the title was, “Giants ‘Cum Led Staff Points To Bum Insertion.” Now if you found us due to that hypothetical title.  Well, ahoy there!  Don’t even get me started on Filthy Sanchez.  All right, a detailed Madison Bumgarner outlook can be found where it says, “Madison Bumgarner outlook.”  Bumgarner is risky, but in the NL West and with his stuff, worth a look in deep mixed and NL-Only leagues.  In keepers, pursue him aggressively.  So far this year, he has a 47:20 K:BB ratio and a 3.13 ERA in 69 innings.  I’d definitely take a flyer (is it flier?) in certain mixed leagues where I needed the upside.  Still, there’s a bunch of arms I’d want over him.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Brett Cecil – Besides having a name of a 70′s British pinup, Brett Cecil has a 0.99 WHIP and decent Ks.  Sure, the matchups are terrible, but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be owned in every league.  For what it’s Wuertz, Cecil has appeared in three Buy columns dating back to April.  Watch out, deaf ears, something’s falling!

Felipe Paulino – Sometimes his pitching looks like Ronnie Paulino, while Ronnie’s doing a number two.  In NL-Only and deep mixed leagues, I’d grab Paulino for his Ks and not much else.  But Ks are Ks are Ks, says the letter L prematurely.

Brad Lincoln – Another NL-Only and/or keeper guy.  Oh, and next time you want to make a splash, Lincoln, don’t follow Strasburg.  You’re welcome!

Jason Hammel – I wouldn’t start him at home just yet.  Not worth the agita.  Last year on the road, a 3.13 ERA.  He credits his road success to an Entertainment Coupon Book that allows him to get all the best deals no matter what city he’s in.  And not having to pitch in Coors.  Yeah, that too.

Jon Niese – Just went over him.  Scroll or click.  Scrolling could help you lose 17 calories.

Alfredo Simon – Juan Schmoil says he wants Simon to be the closer.  Granted, he’s probably never seen him actually pitch.  Nevertheless!

David Hernandez – SAGNOF!  Oh, and should you own two O’s closers?  It’s not ideal, but I am on a few teams until the shituation shakes out.  Just think how fun it can be when the O’s don’t win for a week then they finally get a save opp and the bullpen gives up 5 earned in a third of an inning.  Fantasy baseball, this IS my outlet!

John Axford – He is currently the closer.  Man, I wish I was in a league where he was still available.  Like 65% of ESPN leagues.

Brad Lidge – Owned in only 86% of ESPN leagues.  So 14% of ESPN leagues are owned by Philly fans.

Carlos Santana – Just went over him too.  Don’t believe me?  Click here.

Jack Cust – Three True Outcome player:  strikes out, homers from your bench, homers from waivers.

Jose Tabata – I just went over him.  You did?  Hmm… I must’ve been fertilizing in FarmVille. Thanks for heads up, Random Italicized Voice.  You can find Jose Tabata fantasy info at that link-a-ma-jig.

Andres Torres – I’ve probably been remiss by not talking about him, but he’s still only owned in 20% of ESPN leagues, so there’s still time.  Torres has 11 steals in 168 ABs while batting around .300.  He’s old as dog balls but he’s currently hitting.

Neil Walker – Walker is hitting for average and should get Runs out of the two hole like me after Taco Bell.

Sean Rodriguez – He’s a 25 homer, .240 average guy, in the best case scenario, but he’s currently hitting, so there’s that.

Reid Brignac – Actually having a better season than Sean Rodriguez, but hitting .211 over the last 7 games so there’s that, the sequel.

SELL

Mike Stanton – BUT YOU JUST TOLD US TO BUY HIM!  I know, Mr. Caps, let me explain.  OKAY, KEEP IT SHORT, THE COPS ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  *calling off*  ONE SECOND!  I’m praying Stanton hits a few homers this weekend and his value goes even higher than it already is.  Right now, Stanton’s the hottest thing since the bread Strasburg sliced.  His hype is way above his value.  What’s Stanton going to give you?  The same as Carlos Lee?  That’s the best case scenario.  I think you can get Carlos Lee and a donkeycorn in a trade of Stanton.  Don’t trade Stanton for a bag of creamed corn.  Mostly because creamed corn should not be in a bag.  Ever.

Buster Posey – I am such a hater, ain’t I?  I’m gonna drop a double caveat on you.  I wouldn’t trade Stanton or Posey in keeper leagues.  In one year leagues, Posey’s tradeable if there’s guys like Soto, Montero, Suzuki, etc. on your waivers.  He’s not really that much better than any of those other guys, especially “etc.”  That guy can mollywhop!

Nick Markakis – This guy’s taking the career path of Garrett Atkins.  I’m not quite to the point where I’d drop Markakis, but if you can get anything at all for him, I’d go for it.  Really, what’s he going to give you?  20 homers and 7 steals?  I just popped a zit in the mirror and it read, “Yeah, so?”

Tabata Bata Bata Suh-teal Tabata

June 10, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 126 Comments →

Jose Tabata, the Latin 21, one-time lauded Yankee prospect, was initially heralded as a power corner-OF but wrist issues have seem to have inspired Tabata to become the next Nyjer Morgan.  He’ll likely have a harder time outrunning MLB catcher throws than those in AAA.  And, much like his doughelganger ciabatta, the rest of his stats may be tough to swallow.  (BTW, does he realize that the B in SB stands for base, not baby?  Similar misconception for Kris Benson when he found out that SO stands for strikeouts and not slutty outfits.)  Tabata went 2-for-4 with a steal, leaving with a leg cramp.  He’ll be fine.  I’d grab him in all but the shallowest leagues for steals.  You could get some power.  What’s the worst that happens?  He goes 0-for-35 and steals your baby?  Big whoop!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Lincoln – 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  The Nats were treated to another major league debut… Jose Tabata.  Oh, and Lincoln.  I just went over Brad Lincoln for fantasy.  After watching him, he didn’t change my mind about only grabbing him in NL-Only leagues.

Neil Walker – 2-for-5 and a steal, batting .327 in 55 ABs since his call-up while hitting in the 2-hole.  Speaking of two holes…

Aramis Ramirez – To the Disgraceful List.  March Grey is meeting with James Cameron to figure out a BP fix, but read what he had to say back then.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  It’s why you Ron Popeil your catchers and “Set it and forget it.”

Marlon Byrd – 2-for-5 and 2 homers to give him 9 on the year.  Hey, career year, what’s going on?  Say hello to your mother for me!

Randy Wolf – 4 2/3 IP, 8 ER and gave up 5 homers.  Wolfman jacked!  I figured he’d fall back to earth hard after last year, but I didn’t even think it would be this bad.

Nate McLouth – Collided with Jason Heyward in a sickening McOuch.  Sickening for Heyward owners.  Heyward’s fine.  McLousy could be out for a while.

John Ely – Torre said he wanted to start “taking care of Ely.”  So he’s skipping his next turn so Ely can face the Red Sox next in Fenway.  Thanks, Torre!

Jake Arrieta – As frequent commenter, 3FingersBrown, said in the comments, “Arrieta makes his debut (today) against the Yanks because that’s a great lineup for a young pitcher to gain confidence against in his first big league start.  It’s as though they watched Strasburg and said, “That worked out great!  Let’s do the opposite.”  He doesn’t even have Shutdown Sauce to back him up, so at best he’ll get to see a great start blown by the bullpen.  Sad, silly team there in Charm City.”  Stephen broke down Jake Arrieta for fantasy.  Outside of AL-Only or keeper leagues, I wouldn’t go near him.  Forget those O’s pitchers, bad division, terrible team.

Ryan Ludwick – Hit his 10th homer.  Guess he’s only good every other year.  We will call him, Ludwick Van Evenyears.

David Price – 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Wasn’t the prettiest of wins for Price.  Was the kinda wins that make me think his ERA might catch up to his FIP.  But right now I’m kicking myself in the no-no area for labeling him a sleeper in the preseason and then not drafting him anywhere.  Damn, this was my year to get him too, because you know next year’s he’s gonna be… Wait for it… Here it comes… Hmm… I thought it was here… Did I leave it in the car?… Oh, no, it’s here.  He’ll be overrated.

Carlos Pena – And another homer.  Yeah, gonna have to up the over/under homer total for June to 10.

Delmon Young – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games.  I could see him being a post-hype sleeper next year.  Never know, he might string a streak together right now.

Justin Masterson – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Red Sawx, a team no one in their right mind would start him against.  It’s a snide remark under his breath, it’s pretending to not see you… No, it’s Justin Masterson:  The Passive Aggressive Fantasy Starter.

Felipe Paulino – 8 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Has actually been a very serviceable deep league option.  No chance for wins and a bit too wild for straight roto mixed leagues, but I’d grab him in H2H leagues if he had the right matchup.  And that’s me sorta, kinda endorsing him!

Sean Rodriguez – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and hitting around .330 over the last week and a nine game hitting streak.  Currently, hitting everyone but he has a .344 average vs. lefties and a .203 average vs. righties.  Was a favorite of mine coming into the year.  Right now, he looks startable, but could be a platoon guy.

Shaun Marcum – 4 IP, 7 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks.  You get through the Red Sawx and the Yankees and then you have to deal with the Rays.  This is the biggest problem I have with AL East pitchers.  There’s no let up– Oh, Marcum gets the Padres and Giants next.  Yes, please!

Brennan Boesch – 2-for-3 and his 2nd homer in a row.  Or as he tells himself in the mirror every morning, “You are Boesch-a-boom-boom!”  Now batting near .500 over his last 7 games.

Alexei Ramirez – Hit his 6th homer.  As he’s wont to do, he’s getting hot with the weather.  Yes, wont.

Ryan Hanigan – Progressing well from his fractured thumb, still life goes on with Corky Miller.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer and 2 Ks.  He hits for power, has blazing speed, but strikes out like a madman.  That’s the Stubbs rub.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s post about starters who should be much better.  So postdate my ‘I told you so.’

Adam Jones – 1-for-3 with a steal.  That makes me even happier than his homer the other day.  Now at least he’s giving value besides the occasional homer.  Git r dun, Pacman!

Nick Markakis – 2-for-5, 0 Runs and 0 RBIs.  Now hitting .293 with 3 homers and 1 steal on the year.  Has there ever been a more yawnstipating three hole hitter?  I know Sparkakis, and you, sir, are not him.  Turn in your codpiece.

Jayson Werth – Before the game was postponed, Werth was out of the lineup again in favor of Ben Francisco.  Maybe Charlie Manuel and Jayson Werth can resolve their differences.  Or Jayson could hit him in the back with a folding chair, jump from the top of his locker and drop the elbow!

Buster Posey – Hit his first home run.  It was a moon shot too.  Eli Whiteside bartered with the fan to get the ball back.  “What, you don’t like garlic fries?  I’ll send you some lox from my guy in New York.  Be a mensch…. Buster’s mishpocheh.”

Many Javy Returns

June 07, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 166 Comments →

Javier Vazquez touched you in your no-no area for two months to the point where just looking at his name made you crawl up into a ball and cry, but yesterday he flirted with a no-no for seven innings.  He held the 1927 Blue Jays to only one hit, a home run by HGH Wells.  (In a strange twist, Bautista didn’t homer, but he did have sex with your wife.  Don’t shoot the messenger!)  So can Javier Vazquez now be trusted?  The better question is did anyone really think he was the 8 ERA pitcher he was showing in April and May?  Come on, this is baseball.  It’s a sport of aberrations from day-to-day and week-to-week and month-to-month, but, in the end, people find their level.  Vazquez is more or less a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL.  So you need some months of dreckitude surrounded by some months of usability.  Vazquez is still walking too many guys and, other than him striking out 9 Blue Kays yesterday and the Suckie-O’s the game before, his Ks have been down.  So usable, but don’t expect a full return of 2009 Vazquez.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mike Stanton – He’s coming up on Tuesday.  Can you hear that?  It’s my heart going pitter patter.  Put your ear up to the computer monitor, you’ll hear it.

Ricky Nolasco – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks in Metco.  God forbid Nolasco were to put together an entire freakin’ year pitching how he’s capable.  Maybe if I’m ever in a freakin’ league with a xFIP category, I’ll draft Nolasco.

Brandon Morrow – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks vs. the Yankees.  Even more encouraging was the one walk he issued after only giving up 2 the game before.

Brad Penny – Out for another month or two.  Can’t Dave Duncan rub his hands together and touch the injury or some shizz?

David Freese – Is on ice.  Out until Friday with an ankle sprain.  This would never happen to my neighbor.  She has cankles.

Colby Rasmus – Left the game with tightness in his calf.  If he had four teats, he could be a cow.

Orlando Hudson – Likely headed to the DL.  It’s the hoosegow for the Hudson.

Doug Fister – On the DL with a sore shoulder.  Maybe he hurt it when he was pitching so far over his head.

Dontrelle Willis – Six scoreless on Saturday.  Seemed like every time he got himself in any trouble a lefty came up and he dominates lefties.  I’d wait to see at least two more starts from Willis before considering him.

Josh Hamilton – Should return on Monday after having a cortisone injection in his knee.  I wonder if he helped the doctor find his vein.

Matt Capps – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and another Cappsizing.  Riggleman said Capps will remain the closer, but if you’re trolling for saves — troll on, troller! — Clippard is the first pickup, though he’s probably owned already.  If you’re real desperate for saves, I won’t stand in your way of grabbing Drew Storen.

Scott Rolen – Hit his 14th homer.  Sonavabench!  Why must guys who aren’t starting come into the game and hit a home run?  Rhetorical!

Jeff Francoeur – 2-for-4, hitting over .500 in the last week and one freedom fly.

Hisanori Takahashi – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER and has been about as tasty as Kashi.  Member about two weeks ago when I said he’s getting by with a funky delivery that people aren’t familiar with?  Yeah, that’s over.

Nick Hundley – Home run yesterday as he bats .306 on the year.  He has a .380 BABIP, which is obscene for him.  He has very little pop and he’s around a .260 hitter.  I’d prefer about 20 other catchers over him.

Chase Headley – 4-for-5, 2 runs.  How do you hit cleanup, go 4-for-5 and not get any RBIs?  Headley might need to be added to the definition of yawnstipating.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 9 baserunners, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  Damn, he was rocked!

Michael Wuertz – Got the save vs. the Twins because the A’s want Bailey to be rested for the upcoming series vs. the Angels.  There was no explanation for why Ryan Sweeney was hitting third.

Jack Cust – 3-for-4 and 7 for his last 13.  Cust is streaky like Bret Boone’s hair in the 90′s.  Unlike Boone’s hair, he’s on a good type of streak right now.

Lou Marson – Hit his first homer of the year.  The Indians should not only leave Carlos Santana down in the minors, but they might want to trade him. /sarcasm

Carlos Quentin – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs.  I swear, when I saw he had 2 hits, I looked to see if this was his first multiple hit game of the year.  Not a good sign.

Randy Wells – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks.  All the stats point to Wells being better than he has been, but you can’t afford to start him right now outside of NL-Only leagues.  All’s not Wells.

John Jaso – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs, a steal and a home run as the DH, hitting leadoff.  This was the first time a DH hit leadoff since 1983 when Billy Martin turned in a lineup card on a cocktail napkin.  John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt has little power and hits for a decent average.  For those reading from the beginning of this post and not skipping around willy-nilly, I’d take Jaso over Hundley.

Carlos Pena – The star of Friday’s Buy/Sell hit his 9th homer yesterday.  Where we putting the over/under for his homers this month?  8?  Not sure if I’d take the over or under.  Damn, those oddmakers are good!

Brad Lincoln – Pirates are calling up their top pitching prospect for Wednesday’s start.  First, let’s see what Stephen said in his Pirates Minor League Review, “Lincoln works a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, a power curve, and a changeup.  He keeps most of his pitches near the strike zone, which is both a plus and a negative – he gives up too many homers, especially when the ball is in the upper half of the zone.  If there’s one bone to pick, he’s never thrown a fastball at Grey’s big, stupid head.”  Hmm… That last sentence must’ve slipped by me.  Lincoln’s a fantasy number two to three starter in his prime, which he is not right now.  I’d grab him in keepers and NL-Only leagues, but he’s not worth bothering with in mixed leagues right now.  Best case scenario for this year in mixed leagues, he could have matchups appeal if he catches big league hitters by surprise.

Bobby Abreu – 0-for-6 as the Angels had 18 hits and 9 runs.  Ticker tease!

Mike Napoli – 4-for-5, 3 Runs, 2 RBIs, his 9th homer and one almost head nod from Scioscia.

Hideki Matsui – 2-for-5 with his 9th homer as he hits near .500 over the last week.  For the first time in a while, Matsui is hitting some flies that have nothing to do with the porn stashed under his bed.

Adam Everett – Designated for assignment.  Leyland said, “”We just didn’t see anything happening (offensively) with Adam.”  Um, did they ever see, read or hear anything about Adam Everett that would’ve led them to believe otherwise?  This opens a spot for Danny Worth, who looks like a young Adam Everett, so there’s that.

Jeremy Bonderman – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Hey, there’s the Blunderman we all recognize.

Manny Parra – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read Razzball for a while knows the love I have for Parra.  He’s so tantalizing with his Ks!  Unfortunately, everything else is a mess.  I mean, c’mon, he has a 1.71 WHIP.

Alcides Escobar – 1-for-5, has two steals on the year.  In other news, Josh Willingham has 5 steals.  In other other news, Jason Kendall has 5 steals.  Matt Stairs has 2 steals!  Matt Stairs doesn’t have legs, he has feet glued onto two beer coolers.

Minor League Review, Pittsburgh Pirates

December 30, 2009 By: Stephen Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects 24 Comments →

Pittsburgh Pirates 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America
2009 (18) | 2008 (26) | 2007 (19) | 2006 (19) | 2005 (18) | 2004 (11)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [62 – 99] NL Central
AAA: [70 – 73] International League
AA: [62 – 80] Eastern League
A+: [73 – 66] Carolina League
A: [67 – 70] South Atlantic
A(ss): [38 – 38] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [29 – 31] Gulf League

The Run Down
Trades to the Yankees and Red Sox in 2008 (Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte, and Jason Bay) reaped benefits in 2009 as five of the eight prospects played a role for the Pirates (Craig Hansen, Jeff Karstens, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss and Ross Ohlendorf). Granted, LaRoche and Ohlendorf were the bright spots, the remaining prospects still have potential to help the team in 2010. Furthermore, when the Pirates salary dumped Nate McLouth, they gained more prospects (Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke) to replenish their depleted farm system that lacked any sort of depth. Not to mention sending Freddy Sanchez to the Giants for Tim Alderson. A record 17 straight losing seasons probably won’t end in 2010, however, their prized prospect, Pedro Alvarez, is one year closer to the majors as are a few other pitching prospects. Pirate fans don’t hold your breath just yet, the losing isn’t over. Progress is being made however, and the future is brighter than Capt’n Jack’s chance at a fourth movie. But please give three cheers to the act that The Dread Pirate can put on while you wait for the other players to arrive on set. Plus, there is more talent on this young squad than most will give them credit for (Andy LaRoche plays great defense, Garrett “Robot” Jones, Paul Maholm, and Milledge). Although they didn’t improve greatly, their farm system should stay ranked in the middle of the pack for 2010.

Graduating Prospects
#2 – OF – Andrew McCutchen; #22 – P – Evan Meeks; #27 – 2B – Brian Bixler #28 – C – Jason Jaramillo; Garrett Jones, Chris Jakubauskas

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – #19 – Danny Moskos, #26 – Donnie Veal, Tony Watson
Hitters – #17 – (2B/SS) Chase d’Arnaud, #14 – (SS) Brian Friday, #3 (RF) Jose Tabata

Players of Interest
Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Locke and Tim Alderson’s prospect rankings are from their previous teams (Atlanta for the first two and San Francisco for Alderson).

Hitters
#1 – Pedro Alvarez | 3B | A+/AA | 22 | .288/.378/.535 | 465 AB | 32 2B | 27 HR | .247 ISO | 129:71 K:BB | .350 BABIP | 42.5 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 43.1 FB% | 10.3 IF/F%
Splitting time between High-A and Double-A, Alvarez laced the ball all over the field. His slash line improved greatly between the two levels (.247/.342/.486 at High-A compared to .333/.419/.590 at Double-A). However, his BABIP at Double-A was over a 100 points higher (.407). I wrote about Alvarez with the last Scouting the Unknown of the year. There is no reason to repeat myself. Let’s just say if you’re looking for Braun/Longoria type rookie numbers for 2010, look no further.

#17 – Chase d’Arnaud | 2B/SS | A/A+ | 22 | .293/.398/.454 | 423 AB | 33 2B | 7 HR | .161 ISO | 31/8 SB/CS | 72/60 K:BB | .332 BABIP | 37.3 GB% | 17.9 LD% | 44.3 FB% | 13.8 IF/F%
His slash line between the two levels was pretty even. He had a great combined walk rate this past year (~12.4%) but he finally hit for a bit of power, granted, at the cost of a few more strikeouts. This Chase will never be confused for Utley, both with the bat or the glove. However, the brother of Travis d’Arnaud — I was wondering about that too — has the making of an slightly above-average (if not just average) second baseman in his future. With a little pop and some speed, he’ll be an enticing middle infield grab in the near future, if he can hit next year in Double-A.

#3 – Jose Tabata | RF | AA/AAA | 20 | .293/.357/.406 | 362 AB | 22 2B | 5 HR | .113 ISO | 11/8 SB/CS | 43:30 K:BB | .322 BABIP | 52.8 GB% | 19.3 LD% | 27.6 FB% | 6 IF/F%
The prize return in the Nady/Marte trade in 2008.  He isn’t the speedster that he once was as he has started to fill out his frame. Additionally, he hasn’t hit for much power ever. The most home runs he has ever had in one season has been five. Although he hasn’t played a full season, his homer cap seems to be in the low-to-mid teens if it develops. He hits most his balls on the ground (52.8 GB%). Turning just 21 this year, Tabata has a lot time to develop his game. But he can’t be written off yet.

#4 – Gorkys Hernandez | CF | AA | 21 | .282/.331/.358 | 556 AB | 25 2B | 3 HR | .066 ISO | 19/16 SB/CS | 130:35 K:BB | .363 BABIP | 53.1 GB% | 19.3 LD% | 27.1 FB% | 11 IF/F%
Remember Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins? Hernandez is much like him but with a strong arm – all speed and no power. His talent is the stereotypical leadoff hitter. With gap power, stellar speed, and great defense, the Braves were forced to trade him because they have Jordan Schafer who is nearly identical (with a bit more power and poorer strikeout rates). As it stands, Hernandez has annually struggled with strikeout rates and this year was no different. When he does put the ball in play, it is usually on the ground (53% ground ball rate) which plays into his strengths. Part of the McLouth trade, Hernandez will push Andrew McCutchen for the starting center field position in 2011. However, he will have to improve his on-base percentage to supplant McCutchen as the leadoff hitter. Look for him at Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#4 – Tim Alderson | RHP | A+/AA | 20 5.5 K/9 | 2 BB/9 | 137 1/3 IP | 3.93 ERA | 4.29 FIP | 1.28 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .294 BABIP | 46.9 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 33 FB% | 12.3 IF/F
Alderson lost over a strikeout per inning in his promotion from High-A to Double-A (5.7 K/9 to 4.2 K/9). Furthermore, he had a rate of ~7 K/9 in 2008. Control has never been an issue for Alderson, but there are now red flags about his speed of his pitches being sacrificed for said control. Nevertheless, if he can improve his strikeout rate by about one per inning in 2010 (so between 5.5 K/9 to 6 K/9) and induce a few more ground balls, Alderson can still be an effective pitcher. Just his value has declined as his strikeout rate has declined. Keep in mind that he was still ranked as the #33 ranked prospect in all the minors after the trade by MLB.com.

#4 – Brad Lincoln | RHP | AA/AAA | 24 | 7.1 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 136 1/3 IP | 3.37 ERA | 3.48 FIP | 1.2 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .309 BABIP | 39 GB% | 17.2 LD% | 39.4 FB% | 16.2 IF/F%
Lincoln works a low-to-mid 90′s fastball, a power curve, and a change-up. He keeps most of his pitches near the strike-zone which is both a plus and a negative – he gives up too many homers, especially when the ball is in the upper half of the zone. A Tommy John survivor, Lincoln seems to have recovered from the surgery fine, pitching effectively in 2009. He received a September call up and looks poised for a starting gig in 2010. If he can improve his ground ball rate slightly, he could be nice waiver wire pick-up in early May.

Rudy Owens | LHP | A/A+ | 21 | 8.2 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 124 IP | 2.10 ERA | 3.32 FIP | .94 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .263 BABIP | 38 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 39.5 FB% | 17.5 IF/F%
Aided by a low BABIP (.263), Owens dominated High-A (he only threw 23 IP at Low/Single-A).  He isn’t an overpowering pitcher and the low ground ball rates (38%) is way too low for him to excel at the next level. The control is excellent, and if he pounds the lower half of the zone, Owens could be a prized low draft pick. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010 with a late season call-up.

#7 – Jeff Locke | LHP | A+ | 21 | 7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 127 1/3 IP | 4.55 ERA | 3.48 FIP | 1.48 WHIP | .363 BABIP | .4 HR/9 | 48.6 GB% | 16.3 LD% | 29.8 FB% | 14.8 IF/F%
Finally, a pitcher in the Pirates’ farm system that has a good ground ball rate. He has a 51 GB% for his career too. The other prospect received in the McLouth trade, Locke pitched adequately. He gave up a ton of hits but was cursed with a high BABIP. Look for that number to rebound to the league average (.300 to .305) and for his WHIP to fall. He has a low 90′s fastball, a biting plus-curve and an above-average change-up. He should start the year in Double-A.

#9 Dan McCutchen | RHP | AAA | 26 | 6.9 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 142 2/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | .316 BABIP | 33.6 GB% | 19 LD% | 42.3 FB% | 15.2 IF/F%
The last piece to the Nady/Marte trade, Capt’n McCutchen isn’t your typical prospect. Old enough to quote The Goonies, and more tired than the trek those young boys took, Dan threw 171 innings in 2008 with the Yanks and Pirates. Thus, the Pirates chose to rest him for the beginning part of 2009. After being homer prone for most his career, he significantly cut his homer rate this year. Definitely a fly-ball pitcher, McCutchen has a 90 to 93 mph fastball, a hard curve and a decent change-up. With impeccable control and the potential to be the middle of the rotation stalwart (no. 3 or 4), the Pirates should give McCutchen all the chances he needs to pitch in the majors in 2010 as he has performed well at each level in the minors.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#10 – Robbie Grossman | CF | A | 19 | .266/.373/.355 | 451 AB | 21 2B | 5 HR | .089 ISO | 35/12 SB/CS | 164/75 K:BB | .405 BABIP | 54.4 GB% | 22.1 LD% | 22.8 FB% | 5.3 IF/F%
Another all speed and no power outfielder. Actually that is a half-truth (which isn’t feasible, but just go with me), he has gap-power. In returning to his senior season at Texas University, Grossman lost a step and now only have above-average speed at best. With a decent arm, he’ll likely end up in left field. Like Gorkys and Tabata, Grossman has utilized one of his stronger suits, speed, by hitting the ball mainly on the ground (54 GB%). Oh, and because my Vikings played the Bears Monday, this Grossman is already better than Rex.

Pitchers
#19 – Dan Moskos | LHP | AA | 23 | 4.7 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 3.74 ERA | 4.49 FIP | 1.46 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .308 BABIP | 54.6 GB% | 12 LD% | 27.6 FB% | 10.4 IF/F%
Forever linked with Matt Wieters as the Pirates chose him in the 2007 draft ahead of Wieters. None of his stats are overly impressive, except for his envious ground ball rate (54%) and line-drive rate (12%). Truthfully, since his disastrous rookie season in which everything that could go wrong did, 2009 was a great improvement. Although he doesn’t have jaw-dropping strikeout rates or a minuscule walk rate, Moskos isn’t done pitching at a high level. He’ll most likely get promoted to Triple-A, and if he put up identical numbers in 2010 as he did in 2009, the Pirates may have the next Joel Pineiro. Nothing great, but how many players can eat innings while providing adequate services? Livan Hernandez doesn’t count anymore.