Quick, grab a coin from your pocket.  Now hurl it in a river, and imagine it’s at someone in your office two cubicles away.  Now mid-flight, make a wish.  Get back to me in two-three days and let me know how it went.  This luck and wish game is much like the closer game.  We hope and pray that all is well, but at the end of the day, we only care about the accumulation.  This late in the season its all about the job.  Who is doing it and who isn’t, period.  The stalwarts are on cruise control into the final stretch of the season and are mostly on more winning teams than the teams that have situations that aren’t the most ideal.  Good bullpens usually equal good-to-moderately-good success in real life.  Much is the same with fantasy closer investment and going into next year if you struggled for saves this year.  Invest in teams that will have aspirations of playoff baseball.  The investment in drafting a round or two earlier than usual should pay off in the long run of the ever treacherous 180 days of fantasy baseball.  So with the season winding down, let’s see what is happening in the saves market around the game as we transition into fantasy football, basketball, hockey and SOCCER!

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There are two times of the year taxing comes about.  Once at the beginning of the fantasy baseball season for legal tax reasons, and then about now in September.  The Yankees seem to be flip-flopping useful relievers from one to another as they all seem to be getting worn.  So Aroldis Chapman with some wear and tear eased off his arm is going to be worked back into the clutch-save position for the Yanks.  Betances over the past 14 days has maintained his K/9 rate of over 15, but at the expense of his ERA (7.91), and his BB/9 rate has spiked all the way up to near 8 per 9.  That is the stuff that gets people fired or demoted.  (Which is exactly what is happening in his case.)  I can see him dropping to a lesser role for the next week or so and being used in less pivotal situations.  Allowing Robertson and Chad Green to show what they got in front of the flame-throwing Cuban.  Aroldis’ last 14 games have been a far improvement over his last 14.  Era was only 2.70, K/9 way below his standard at 10.80.  The bad department is that he hasn’t really been used too much.  So as he gets back on the bike in closer role and the season comes to an end soon, let’s see what else is going down in the world of saves…

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It is that time of the year when usual bullpen scenarios start to rear their ugly heads.  The terms “falling back to earth” and “gassed” take hold of even the veteran of bullpens.  That seems to be the case in the rock pile in Colorado with Greg Holland.  Cruising along and then bam, that reliever wall hits.  Especially for someone of his ilk that is coming off a few lost seasons with arm woes.  I usually say 50 innings is about when we start seeing it, but that number varies by innings in previous years, pressure situations, and the leverage that those situations come with.  The unfortunate thing is that with Greg the last two are very prominent.  He is fourth in the league amongst relievers in pressure situations, fifth in pitching with the lead, and the last four games are an indicator that he may be spinning his wheels a bit.  Three blown saves in his last five appearances and only 2 saves since August started.  Not encouraging news for a team that is honing in or trying to hone in on a playoff spot.  The good thing for Holland owners is that he looks to be given some leash here, but with proven relievers with semi-reliable numbers behind him, like Jake McGee and Pat Neshek, the need for a cuff here is paramount as the fantasy playoffs and season winds down.  Every save counts when you start losing them from a reliable source.  That is the worst predicament when projecting out the rest of the year to see if you have enough horses to get you to the finish line.  McGee and then Neshek are the adds for a just in case situation as Holland could be given a breather for a day or three.  Let’s see what else is going down in the land after starters…

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Looking for value in a baron steal world is not very fun.  Scouring the waiver wire every day, wandering the earth looking for value or a good match-up is lonely territory.  Kinda makes you feel like the guy from Kung Fu, but just not with all the sexual asphyxiation type stuff.  Listen digging for steals and even saves for that matter is a matter of right place or being first to the waiver wire.  Not every move is a good one, especially in the stolen base category.  It’s fantastic that guys steal bases, but they also have to get on base.  Stealing first is still a non-entity. So look at the match-ups at hand and do not be afraid to gamble on a guy.  Check the OBP, check the catcher/pitcher rates of stolen bases against.  And god forbid do not fall in love with the one-stat wonders of the world this late in the year.  You don’t wanna be stuck holding a guy and miss out on the next guy to accumulate stats.  Play, ditch and go re-fishing for stats.

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When I write titles like this, often times I say to myself: Do I need to extrapolate on the actuality of the point that I am trying to convey?  Fortunately for you I am going to be all basic with knowledge this week because it is pretty cut and dry.  Are you winning saves?  How much are you winning saves by?  If yes for the first question and over 20 for the second, be like Billy Ray and sell.  Do not liquidate all your assets, just slim down your roster to a smattering of usefulness instead of a hoard.  Find a culprit who maybe chasing second, third or even fourth.  My reasoning for this and why you should do it now is that before people realize that there is no hope in dope or chasing saves when you can’t make them up… they will lose interest and they will have zero trade value.  Don’t get stuck holding a struggling middle/upper closer when you can reinvest that in a bat that can make up a stat other than just one.  Today’s moral is:  sell saves, be aware that your return may not be as great as expected, but it’s better then dumping them to the waiver wire for nothing.

The Fantasy Premier League is about to begin! Tune into Razzball Soccer for all your Fútbol needs!

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The Mets continue to move towards the future, promoting their top first base prospect, Dominic Smith.  They are cautiously optimistic.  Adverbly restrained because the last time they were unbridled in their enthusiasm, it was about this great deal Bernie Madoff was telling them about.  Okay, let’s think back to a less cynical time.  When the birds chirped, and they made you smile.  When your dad carried you on his shoulders, and you were on top of the world.  When you peed the bed, no one tried to commit you to rehab.  People pinched your cheeks without you having to pay some stranger on Craigslist $75.  A time of joy.  Wonder.  No Splenda.  So, what can we expect from Dominic Smith?  Did someone say ‘no Splenda?’  Well, it wasn’t my words (it was)!  Smith looks like a 17-20 homer guy with a solid average and even better OBP.  Might be a better real life player than a fantasy one.  I’d take a flyer everywhere to see what he does if you need average first, which was the original America First slogan.  Average First!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Camelot is the supposed castle and court of the legendary and romanticized King Arthur. Over time, it’s come to mean “any idyllic place or period, especially one of great happiness.” My view of Camelot is best expressed by Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Which seamlessly transitions to Ben Gamel (25.7% owned – increase of 9.7%). As you can see, I had some difficulty with this week’s post. Gamel has definitely made the Mariners and fantasy owners happy. He’s batting .313/.364/.449 with six home runs, 56 runs scored, 36 RBI, and three stolen bases. You want legendary? Since 1871, Gamel is currently ranked 22nd OVERALL in BABIP with a .410 mark. Ty Cobb has two seasons better than him and Babe Ruth is seventh with a .423 mark. For some useless information that could possibly net you money at a bar or something, Ross Barnes has the two greatest BABIP seasons of all-time with a .438 mark. What does it mean? Well, that number is coming down. It’s like the probability of Snap trading below it’s IPO price. It was bound to happen because all the VC’s and funds that got in for a $1 or less were going to unload some of their shares for a huge profit at the first opportunity. Now, that doesn’t mean that the shares are going to zero. In fact, look at how Facebook and Twitter traded around their IPO’s. Ok, back to Gamel. It’s very encouraging that he’s hitting both lefties and righties well. In fact, he was in the two-hole when the Mariners faced off against Chris Sale. With that said, he still only has six home runs and three stolen bases in 364 plate appearances. What’s the upside here? TRASH

Here’s what else I saw over the past week:

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Will Grey poop on?  Not this DeJong!  But, c’mon, we just have to look at Paul DeJong for one brief moment:

Dude looks like he owns a pair of Opti-Grab glasses.  Some things that sound like they’d be said to the guy in that picture:  “Um, Paul, why are you walking a lizard on a leash?”  “Paul, you shouldn’t sit three inches from the TV.”  “So, you say you’ve been frozen in that gaze for six months?  Hmm, have you tried a cup of coffee?”  “Paul, are you wearing those glasses with open eyes and are really sleeping?”  “Paul, I’m happy you got laid, but that was two months ago, can you lose the shit-eating grin?”  Seriously, I can go on all day.  “Paul, buddy, you’ve been out of the water for twenty minutes and the shark is still biting your arm.”  Okay, done now.  This week Paul DeJong had four homers and has 14 homers in 50 games.  That’s almost as goofy as his grin.  Buy him right now!  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

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The deadline is right around the corner, I know this because it said it would be right back and asked me to watch it’s dog while it shuffled up all the bullpen stuff that I just took the time to write out.  The trade deadline is a mischievous beast, he will lure you with rumors and a weird one-windowed van and leave you out of the loop when it comes to bullpens.  Contenders don’t care, they will have 2-3 closers or former closers on the roster… greedy is what I say.  But I am still looking at situations in flux because I have no life.  Scouring the goodies of bullpens left behind, and it takes me to Oakland.  The traded recipient, that being Blake Treinen is in the prime ready-five chair as he watches Santiago Casilla implode for 4 blown saves in his last 16 appearances… and of course he blows the first chance he gets.  No matter, I think that he still is a better bet going forward than Casilla.   The bullpen cupboard is bare, there’s no Doolittle, there’s no Madson, there’s no more Axford.  It is Treinen and Ryan Dull as the lone men standing, and Dull just got back from the DL.  It is a matter of when, not if Blake gets the go of things and makes all the Bay City girls swoon with his saves.  If the A’s go full on punt and trade the rotation to nothing, his potential for saves could be minimal, but chase away oh friends of the ‘NOF.

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It’s all fun and games when the lights go off and the special things in life glow under different color light.  Laundry detergent, player names, and the puns that are associated with them… and believe it or not a good ole bottle of Hennessy.  So now that we have concocted that cocktail and images in your head, let’s move onto the Fantasy Baseball portion of this relationship.  That being Marcus Semien.  I am going to be the first to admit that I really like the idea of this guy on my team after last season’s output, as he produced 27 HR’s and 10 steals.  Not the elite of foot by any stretch of the SAGNOF imagination, but the 27 taters from a middle infield spot takes a lot of gleam off the cube.  So why now?  Well, his season was derailed by injury and he only still has 86 at-bats on the year.  Ignore all the other facets, he is not going to hit for average and not going to score a ton of runs in the A’s lineup, but he has 7 steals in those 86 at-bats.  (He only had 10 last year in 586 at bats, remember I just said that.)  So he has gone from a once every 60 plate appearances per steal guy to one every 10.  I am by far no mathematical genius, but that looks like a gigantic difference.  Since he returned from the DL, he is hitting 30 points above his career average, which is only .230, but still, .265 is better then .230.  The steals are what we want and that’s why we here.  So with the expectations of him not slipping out of the lineup now that he is returned he could easily be a cheap source (8.6% owned in ESPN leagues).  With the way that the middle infield spots turn over and the trade deadline around the bend stats at any chance are better then none.

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