Fantasy Baseball Advice

Tim Hudson is on track to make a rehab start.  If all goes well, and that if is ginormous, then he can return to the Braves for their failed chase for the Wild Card.  Recovering from Tommy John is usually the same no matter what, shorty.  Pitchers usually return to three-quarters of their former selves or they can become seven-fifths of their former selves, which is to say they can be better.  Though they’re not usually better when they are first reactivated.  They usually return slightly less than three-quarters.  If you’re half as confused by those fractions as I am writing them, let me break it down to you, nice and simple like Minnie Pearl.  Tim Hudson’s worth stashing on your DL for matchups, but the upside is merely usable in 12 team leagues.  Don’t expect miracles.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  He shows you some solid starts, then he shits your house.

Michael Cuddyer – 4-for-5, 2 HRs and 19 homers on the year.  The quietest 19 homers anyone has in the majors.  Oh, wait.  Jason Kubel also has 19 homers.  Meanwhile, some schmohawk who’s batting .219 for the Sox is ESPN’s lead story.

Carl Pavano – 7 IP, 0 ER in his debut for the Twins on Saturday.  Still not a huge fan of 4th or 5th fantasy starters from the AL, but Pavano should be slightly better on the Twins.  I wouldn’t pick him up in most leagues, but there might be a situation where it makes sense.

Brian Matusz – 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners as he roofied you. Remember that when you read about Derek Holland’s great start in about three minutes.

Marco Scutaro – HR yesterday as he went 4-for-5. Has 10 homers and 8 steals and a .300 average.  Somewhere Polanco says, “Hey, that’s my season!”

Trent Oeltjen – 3-for-4 and a HR yesterday.  Sometimes it takes a few weeks for pitchers to get the scouting reports on guys.  Worth grabbing The Outback while pitchers try to figure him out.  Keep in mind he looks like he’s sitting vs. lefties.

Yusmeiro Petit/Joel Pineiro – 4 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners and 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks and the Win.  Guess there’s only room for one -eiro.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  For those that don’t own the Mini-Donkey.  He now has 8 homers in the last 10 games.  He’s real and he’s spectacular.

Aaron Cook – Will miss his next start because of turf toe, which would’ve been avoided if God gave us all Nerf toes.

Carlos Gonzalez – 7 for his last 15 as he started every game this weekend for the Rox.  I doubt they start him vs. lefties, but in deep leagues he’s worth a flier.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid start, just Johan outpitched him.  I just had a crazy idea, imagine Johan pitched his home games in a stadium as spacious as Petco… Oh, wait.

Eugenio Velez – 2-for-4, after hitting homers in back-to-back games on Friday on Saturday.  No idea how he hit those homers, I’m assuming 120 MPH winds were blowing out and they let Velez hit from 2nd base.  Either way, he’s batting .400 over the last seven games.  He’s really just steals, but while he’s hot he’s worth a flier.

David Weathers – Heads to the Brewers.  Now the Brewers have Tackleberry (Weathers), Guttenberg (Braun) and Hooks (Fielder).

Felipe Lopez – 1-for-3, batting .303 on the season with 6 homers and 6 steals.  Marco Scutaro just looked at those numbers and yawned.  Steal a base, Lopez!  Hit a homer!  Do something!

Russell Branyan – HR yesterday as I sat him because he was facing a lefty.  Sonavabench!

Matt Diaz – HR yesterday vs. a lefty and batting .350 on the year vs. lefties.  If you have the room, Diaz do what he do vs. lefties.

Derek Holland – Complete game shutout, 8 Ks.  Go back and look at Matusz’s line if you’ve forgotten.

Garrett Jones – 1-for-4, you have three games in Coors to hit a homer then we’re done-zo.

Jed Lowrie – Headed to the DL.  In other news, Julio Lugo’s batting .345 for the Cards.

Alexei Ramirez – HR yesterday.  Let’s put it this way, I’m not dropping Alexei (though I might in mid-September when anything goes), but Alexei has a long way to go before he falls into that category of guys I won’t draft on any team next year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Honestly, even when I said everyone should draft him in February, I had no idea the Wandwagon could roll like this.

Scott Kazmir – What a fucker.

Rajai Davis – 2 steals yesterday.  If you need steals, SAGNOF!

Bobby Crosby – 2 HRs yesterday.  Elias Sports Bureau said these two homers by Bobby Crosby were the most by any player that you thought was no longer in the league.  Actually, they did not say that.  But overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau offices, “For the first time since last year, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.”

In one league, Rudy just traded Capps for Victorino and in another league he traded Capps for Billingsley. That’s right; he pulled off a classic double upper-decker. (I believe the term upper-decker is still, erm, dangling right outside of the glossary, but with some momentum in the forums it might make it in. I’ve objected and Rudy recommended Jokey Smurf’d, which I do enjoy, even if I don’t get it. And, yes, these are the things that matter to me.) So Capps is out for at least 8 weeks with a right shoulder injury. He’s not coming back. If he does, he comes back for what? One Day in September (great movie, by the way). The Pirates are playing for 2012. They don’t need Capps. Buh-buh-buh what if he recovers quickly?! He didn’t get many saves as it was. Kobayashi probably will get more saves replacing Borowski than Capps the rest of the way. So… *rubbing hands together* who gets the saves? More than likely, it’s Marte. He’s a lefty so if he falters, it might be the dreaded committee. Marte should be able to handle the one-to-two-saves-a-week he’s given. If you’re really a save vulture, fiending like Pookie in New Jack City, then grab Yates. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rafael Furcal – Well, I said yesterday that Furcal probably won’t be contributing much this year. Now it seems like he won’t contribute anything. How do you go from a sore back to back surgery after two months of rehabilitation? Seriously, they couldn’t have operated two months ago? Maybe when he got hurt? Not after he rehabbed. Ugh, this is frustrating. I hate Furcal.

The Angels – The regular readers probably already know this, but I live in Los Angeles. So my hometown teams are the Dodgers and the trying-hard-to-be-the-Dodgers Angels. Well, I managed to get to July before I watched a whole Angels game. I tend to watch the NL and I have Direct TV, so I usually watch all teams rather than one in particular. I have favorites to watch, in no particular order, the Marlins, Brewers, Braves, Cubs, Padres, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Mets… Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah, the Angels. I watched them today. Holy mother of the inventor of Doritos, they are boring. I think my eyes yawned. Here’s some things I saw that I didn’t want to: Kendrick sparking the offense with slap hits, not being able to gauge if Eveland/Saunders are good or the Angels/A’s are bad, the OC kids jumping around like/with rally monkeys, Red Hudler saying, “That’s how Vladdy goes… From his heads to his toes…” and thinking how ironic it is that there’s a minority owner, but The OC is known as The Orange Curtain because of its lack of minorities. For fantasy baseball purposes, I saw a few things. Juan Rivera hit a home run. He could have a decent second half, he’s done it before. Chone Figgins looks unusable. It’s still early so he could put together a 15 steal month, but it may not be this month. Vladimir Guerrero looks like he’s suffering more this year than previous years, causing him to run like Cousin Geri from the Facts of Life. Bobby Crosby batting third is good for Crosby and bad for the A’s. Erick Aybar batted third and homered. I think Scioscia’s tipping ‘em back with LaRussa.

Roger Berandina – He was mentioned in the forums or the comments (Heffin’ hey, I gotta keep track of where things are mentioned too?). I thought Berandina was a solid NL-only pickup in a keeper league. He has speed, he’s batting leadoff until Milledge returns and he looks like he couldn’t hit the side of a barn with a broom. Eugenio Velez called, he wants his fantasy baseball outlook back.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 8 Ks, 2 ER. I’m told his name in Gaelic translates to “this start was against a team that had Paul LoDuca at first and Berandina leading off.” However, I do like Nolasco moving forward, even when LoDuca isn’t the opposing first baseman. (BTW, I went to look at what I’ve said in the past on this site about LoDuca and I found this, “(LoDuca) says he wants to prove the Mets wrong. I say, how? By hitting 7 homers and twelve doubles.” And that’s me laughing at me!

Jay Bruce – In five games, he’s at 12/6/16/.680/2. Unfortunately, those games are scattered all over the place. (Someone at Elias Sports Bureau just died from my misuse of stats.) Okay, after Bruce’s two homer game last night, you have two options. First option, you smile and congratulate yourself on holding Bruce through his lean times. Second option, you sell him because you know he hit those two home runs off a Pirates pitcher that might be named Van Beanstalk. You make the call!

Xavier Nady – 2 HRs. I kinda wish I took my own advice and picked him up on the 2nd day of the season. If I did, I wouldn’t have Adam Lind on one team.

Adam Lind – Watchoo talkin’ ’bout, Xavier Nady’s player news? I hit a home run last night.

Chris Davis – Hit another HR. Now has 3 in like 2 at-bats to go along with five Ks or something. Listen, it’s more of the same, you take the flier if you can afford to drop someone because you never know where something great is going to come from. He Ks and hits home runs. That’s what he do. He can hit 20 home runs in half a season. Most veterans won’t do that. I’ve bought in in three leagues, I dropped Ken Griffey Jr., Pedro Martinez and Jorge Campillo. Oh, and I still can’t pick him up in one league — Yahoo Fantasy Baseball sucks.

Daryl Thompson – This guy’s numbers in the minors were major (<—-pun!). Unfortunately, it seems like he’s now being rushed.  Luckily, he has Dusty to nurture him and watch his pitch counts.

Jeff Francis – To the DL. That’s the Disgraced List.

Clayton Kershaw – Back to Double-A. Looks like Alyssa Milano will have to find someone else to give herpes to.

Chris Snyder – Came down with Jockular Sphincteritis. IowaCubs, a frequent commenter, said Snyder busted a nut. That’ll be a tough line to beat for Razzball Comment ‘O Week.

J.R. Towles – Member that doooode that no one could get enough in the preseason? Yeah, he’s back. His return isn’t because of great production in the minors; Quintero is on the 15-day DL.

Yorvit Torrealba – It’s getting warm in Coors and balls are jumping out. I’m licking stamps and thinking about shipping Navarro off on a few teams.

Steven Pearce – I mentioned him in the Buy/Sell last week. Well, Steven Pearce was just called up by the Pirates. Okay, here’s the thing. There’s nowhere to play him, but the Pirates will be sellers (as they have been for years) at this trading deadline. So they could move LaRoche, Bay or Nady within a week and Pearce then gets a long look. NL-only people need to grab him immediately. Mixed leaguers need to wait and see.

Pedro Martinez – I’m dropping him in all ten team leagues. This was Rudy and I over IM yesterday, Rudy, “Are you starting Pedro @ STL?” Me, “No, I’m done with Pedro. And since I can’t start him, there’s no reason to hold onto him. He’s gone.” “Yeah, you make some really good calls when it comes to fantasy baseball. They should call this hobby of ours, Grey’s fantasy baseball. In fact, they should call hobbies — Grebbies. To work your name in there.” “I agree.”

Chris Duncan – Hit another home run. He’s getting hot. Definitely worth substituting in when he’s facing righties. In other Duncan news, Shelley dislocated his shoulder giving a high five.

Chase Headley – HR yesterday, now 4 HRs since callup to go along with 18 Ks and 0 walks. But, Grey, you tout Davis who Ks and doubt Headley? Are you facist? No, but Davis has immense power and he plays in Texas. Headley has solid power and he plays in a stadium that makes Randy Wolf look awesome. Speaking of which…

Randy Wolf – 7 ER in 4 IP. He said after the game that he felt like the “worst pitcher in baseball.” I say, “Only on the road, Randy. Only on the road.”

As Sean Connery says, “Shituation: Dire.” Rios has been the pea under your mattress. The splinter in your paw. The tighty-whitey stain that your fourth grade classmates saw when you were changing for gym and have teased you about for the rest of your life (but maybe that was just me). Alexis Rios wasn’t a random stab in the dark when I pegged him for a terrific year in 2008. I wasn’t driving through the desert, high on peyote, when a random Native American said to me, “Rios will be good this year and make sure to hit the slots at Mohegan Sun.” So it’s disappointing when Rios’s slump looks amaranthine (Word of the Day, and I’m not even sure it’s used correctly, so try to use context clues), but there has to be an end in sight, doesn’t there? Yes, I believe there is an end to his struggles. But, for the record, Rudy and I disagree on this. Rudy says he should be sold. Well, whatever. Then I’m going down with the U.S.S. Rios. Rios’s gone through months like this before and he’s come out of it. Sure, his lineup looks like it should be in the AAGPBL, but I’m buying.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Chris Perez – Isringhausen could be done done. To define those italics. Isringhausen is too old, too tired and Chris Perez is too heffin’ good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Izzy hang up the cleats and retire (then return in two years as the Rays closer.) But can Ryan Franklin hold off Chris Perez? About as well as Britney Spears’s kids have of staving off rehab in twelve years. I think Perez could have fifteen saves this year and excellent peripherals. He’s not a starter that is biding his time in middle relief. He was a closer in the minors. A closer with terrific numbers.

Curtis Granderson – As most of you know, I think Curtis blows. But I’m starting to think, no one likes him, so whenever everyone starts zigging, you gotta look to zag. Now don’t zag for the sake of zagging — nobody likes a willy-nilly zagger! — but if you can move Pat Burrell and Joe Saunders or someone of their ilk for Granderson, you gotta consider it.

Corey Hart – Might be too late to buy because of his recent streak. As Alexis Rios and Corey Hart prove, invest in speedy OFs with girl first names!

Joey Devine – In a couple of leagues where I had Casilla, I’ve moved to Waking Joey Devine.

Matt Garza – 3 earned runs in almost 20 innings since coming off the DL. He’s a very capable pitcher with good K numbers in the minors. The only drawback is the Twins gave him to the Rays and the Twins know pitching. Damn you, Twinkies, what do you know that I don’t?!

Bobby Crosby – If he stays healthy, he could give you 20 home runs and a belch-worthy average.

Adam Wainwright – I’m still onboard the love train. He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. Don’t let his last two starts get you down.

Mike Cameron – I see Krispie Young Sr. on waivers in a lot of leagues. In ESPN leagues, he’s only 20% owned. (Of course, I do believe five thousand 3rd graders draft ESPN teams then abandon them, but still.) I’m sporting Cameron on a ten team mixed league and I’m getting what I expect. For a fifth outfielder, you can do worse. On the team I have him, I’m balancing his shizzy average with Youk.

Vladimir Guerrero – So he’s as limber as Ron Kovic, this isn’t something new.

Jose Contreras – Okay, so he remembers when they called movies “talkies” — whatever, he’s solid when healthy and he’s been healthy.

Johnny Damon/Robinson Cano – I’ve beat these horses before, but I still believe.

SELL

Ben Sheets – I’ve said it before. Ben Sheets can win the Cy Young. Know what else? Hillary can win the nomination. Andy Milonakis can be funny. I can date Mila Kunis without incurring criminal charges. Now will is an entirely different matter. Will Hillary win the nomination? I suppose if whatever state Obama is in collapses into the core of the earth. Will fatty ever be funny? I suppose if he steals better jokes. Will I date Kunis? If I can get rid of Culkin, you better believe it. So will Sheets win the Cy Young? He hasn’t made it to 30 starts since ‘04. That year he had 264 Ks and 32 walks. Go ahead look at those numbers again. Yeah, they’re insane. That was coupled with a 2.70 ERA. He has pinpoint control and filthy stuff. Yeah, I’m a fan. Unfortunately, he could get injured in a pillow fight with your niece. So as much as I like him, I’m passing.

Edinson Volquez – In the comments recently someone asked about Edinson. Here’s what I said, “You see what’s happening with Cueto right now? Yeah, Volquez will be seeing him in the ‘kinda not startable’ category soon. Edinson’s a great pitcher but very, very rarely does a pitcher arrive in the majors and never hit a correction period. Could he avoid it? I suppose, but you don’t bet on the least likely thing to happen. You’re playing with house money right now and you need to cash out and move on.” Admit it, I take your breath away like Dr. Kevorkian.

Adrian Gonzalez – Don’t fall in love with his first half numbers. Let’s put it this way, he says to Teixeira, “You complete me.” Now don’t sell him for Luis Hernandez and a bottle of Valtrex and say, “Look, Grey, I did good!”

Jon Garland – Don’t make the same mistake The Town That Bobby Grich Built Angels made. He’s not a great pitcher.

Jon Lester/Doug Davis – As Hank said in the comments the other day, “Damn, cancer really is the new AIDS. Free plane tickets, no-hitters, and sympathy rotation spots. ‘What kind of cancer do you have? The All-Over kind.’” Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman writes in his journal, “Mono is not good enough!”

Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuuuuk is not a 2nd half hitter.

Joe Saunders – Rudy said this the other day in the comments, “Saunders is projected as a low K pitcher with around 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.6 K/9 IP and 1.6 K/BB ratios are AWFUL. The only real change from his performance last year is that he’s getting lucky with balls that are in play – it’s .240 instead of an expected .300.” And that’s me quoting Rudy!

Billy Butler – I’m gonna pull a Willie Randolph and say it’s racist if people still have Butler on their team. If he were black or Isiah Thomas or Herm Edwards, he would not be on your team. And that’s egregious! So let’s all get along and drop Butler. Now doesn’t that feel good?