Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ryan Dempster hits the DL with a broken toe.  No word on how he hurt it, but Cubs fans are blaming Milton Bradley, Milton Bradley’s blaming an Italian Beef sandwich he ate in March but the Italian Beef sandwich refuses to play The Blame Game.  Way to take the high road, Italian Beef sandwich!  Dempster was at 5-5/4.09/1.37/89 through 105 2/3 innings.  Now he’s out until late-July at the earliest.  If you have a DL spot, go for it.  With a non-arm injury, I wouldn’t be too concerned about Dempster coming back and doing pretty much what he’s been doing so far, which is, well, I just told you.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa – Went to the DL.  It’s a move they were calling “precautionary” and they’re “very optimistic.”  They expected him back right after the “All-Star break.”  DeRosa wanted to play but the “doctors” “said” “he” “shouldn’t.”  Hopefully, his “wrist” will be “fine.”  Then it turned out there was a reason they put everything in quotes as it was all lies and he could be out for a month with a torn tendon sheath.

Tony Pena – Traded to the White Sox.  The Sox now have four setup men.  Guess if they ever have two doubleheaders in one day, they’re set.

Ronald Belisario – Headed for an MRI.  Geez, usually Torre can overwork his relievers for at least one season.  Luis Vizcaino, Scott Proctor and Ron Villone never needed no stinkin’ MRI.

Jose Reyes – Received a cortisone shot.  Supposedly this will push his return back at least another couple of weeks.  Though when Upton received a cortisone shot before the playoffs, it was a boost.  Guess different body parts react differently to cortisone shots.  Glad I didn’t get a cortisone shot in my fingers so I could write the best post ever.

Carlos Beltran – Was seen sharing the same news story as Jose Reyes.  He’s also in no rush to return.  Guess he doesn’t own himself in multiple leagues like me.  If I find out Beltran owns me in a fantasy baseball bloggers league, I’m going on the 60-day DL.

Freddy Sanchez – Has missed five straight games with a back strain.  Since this is all about me, let me say this really leaves me with very few options in a deep league where I own Freddy.  Get well soon, Dirty Sanchez!

Brandon Phillips – 2 HRs.  After his 2nd homer, he pointed into the catcher’s mitt and called the 2nd strikeout for Jay Bruce.

Marc Rzepczynski – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks, 4 walks.  Solid strikeout numbers in the minors, but a bit wild.  He averaged over 10 K/9, but over 4 BB/9.  And, like your Mom’s cooking, he’s under-seasoned.  He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, but I’d avoid him in mixed leagues for now.  Oh, and so you can impress your friends, pronounce his last name the same as Kzepczynski, but with an R.

Vladimir Guerrero – For some reason, the Angels had Ron Kovic in the outfield.  That didn’t go well.  He limped off the field in the 8th inning from discomfort in his knee.  If you own him, hope the Angels say it’s only day-to-day, which would be only a 15-day DL trip.

Juan Rivera – 2 HRs, up to 16 HRs.  Rivera’s a solid option when healthy and hitting.  He’s currently doing both.  He’s also 31-years-old and has never hit more than 23 HRs in a season because he never stays healthy.  Can he this year?  Maybe.  Maybe he’s this year’s Ludwick.  But even if he stays healthy, he has no speed and goes ice cold for extended stretches, like last year when he hit 6 homers and batted .248 in August and September combined.

Erik Bedard – 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  On a pitch count, you can’t ask for much better of a start.  Looks solid going forward, if he stays healthy.  The same was once said of Rickie Weeks.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu hit another homer yesterday.  Get’m while they’re hot.

Justin Verlander – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 Ks.  I wish I owned a guy that would strikeout 11 in 6 innings.  Owned in the non-biblical way.

Pat Burrell – Hit his 4th homer yesterday.  Has 20ish more to get.

Jason Bay – HR and 2 steals yesterday.  He’s at 20/8 with 71 RBIs.  If he gets to 35/15 with 130 RBIs, he’s going in the 2nd round next year.  Crazy, right?  Want crazier?  Just wait until Shaughnessy runs with that story in September.  You thought Jim Rice in the Hall was crazy; Bay could win the MVP.

Scott Hairston – HR yesterday.  Since Kris Davis went off to the minors, we lost our Reynolds vs. Davis K race, so I have a new one.  Hairston vs. Holliday, the HR race.  Hairston’s up by 3.  Yes, if you traded Holliday for, say, Rollins and picked up Hairston off waivers, you’d be doing better right now.  This is you.  This is you owning Holliday and doing a double take.

Alfredo Aceves – Will start for Wang on Thursday.  So, he goes, what?  60 pitches?  Worth grabbing in H2H leagues and AL-Only, but I’m not bothering with him in mixed leagues.

Scott Baker – 3 IP, 5 ER.  The troubling aspect (or positive, depending on your POV) is he didn’t give up any homers.  Usually if he’s hit hard, it’s because of HRs.  Think you can just chalk it up to a tough lineup and him having a bad day.

Barry Zito – 8 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 hits vs. the Marlins sans Hanley or Sansley, for those portmanteau lovers out there.

Blake DeWitt – HR yesterday as his Mom, Joyce DeWitt was arrested for a DUI.  If only Joba had such fortitude…

David Wright – 0-for-3, batting .050 in July.  C’mon, Alex Cora can only do so much.

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  Eh, it was an okay start.  He gets the Giants next, so I’m holding tight for that start.

Luke Scott – HR yesterday and 7 RBIs.  He was almost benched in one league of ours.  Luckily, Glass Chipper didn’t play.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-3, 2 steals. He’s not a pure steal guy, but he does have 15-steal speed.  So it’s a great sign that he’s using that speed, unlike Rasmus, another rookie with 15-steal speed who only has one steal on the year.  As mentioned a few days ago, I own Jones.

Grady Sizemore – 2 HRs.  I said Sell him!  Oh, wait.  No, I’m not backing off on that.  If he has the slightest setback, the Indians will shut him down faster than you can say Rzepczynski.

Paul Konerko – 3 HRs.  Seems like he’s doing for the White Sox what Branyan’s doing for the other side of the plate in Seattle.  Has anyone seen them in the same place at the same time?  Things that make you say hmm…

Bartolo Colon – Yesterday news said, White Sox GM unsure of Colon’s location.  Hey, Kenny, it’s in the large intestine.

Vernon Wells was primed for his ‘every 3rd year’ routine, but now he’s strained the same hamstring he hurt last year that caused him to miss 50+ games.  Word out of Blue Jay camp is he’ll miss at least 4 weeks.  A broken-down VW isn’t going to help your team go anywhere.  Just forget about the 30/100/.300/10 guy and think of him as that 20/80/.270/5 guy.  Hate to say it, but he’s a lot closer to Aaron Rowand than an elite fantasy OF.  The best thing to come out of Vernon’s hammy injury is Adam Lind and Travis Snider could see more time.  Anyway, here’s some other things going on during spring training that effect 2009 fantasy baseball:

Garrett Anderson – GA signed with the Braves.  This does nothing for his value.  And prior to this, he had no value.  You do the math!

Orlando Hudson – Joyce DeWitt was so proud when I anointed her son a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Oh, well.  She’ll always have the hand she played in inventing Jiggle TV.  (And it wasn’t a hand — wokka, wokka, wokka…)  Orlando Hudson’s picture is next to the definition of yawnstipating.  You should not be drafting him in any leagues.

Blake DeWitt – His value is now K to the aput.

Nyjer Morgan – Sounds like he’ll be opening day left fielder.  Stay tuned because he could be a cheap source of steals.  SAGNOF!

Chase Utley – He’s already taking batting practice.  I think he’s the Phillies starting 2nd baseman when they take the field for their first game of the season, with him and Hamels sharing hair gel.  Does the hip effect his speed?  He steals 10 instead of 15.  I’m just hoping my drafts happen soon so I can get Utley at a discount.  You should be hoping the same thing.

Melvin Mora – He said he’s going to put up “.340, 20-plus (home runs) and 100-plus (RBIs).”  Otherwise known as Bill James’s projections for Chris Davis.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.

1)  Chad Billingsley is my pre-preseason pick for NL Cy Young, but The Verducci Effect says I might want to fall back on the Old Faithful of preseason Cy Young picks and go with Johan.  Are you worried about Billingsley’s increase in innings last year?

At the moment, I’m far less concerned by “the Verducci Effect” (god, I hate that term) than I am by the “shattered his leg slipping on ice in November” effect. So, 2009’s not exactly off to a great start for him, though all reports have him being ready in time for spring training. That said, I’m really not that worried about his arm. It’s true that the increase in innings is worrisome for a pitcher of his age, but this is a guy who’s never had any arm issues to speak of at all. Besides, he gets a good deal of his power from his enormous backside and legs, which does seem to take pressure off of that treasured right arm. He was actually even better in 2008 than his stats suggest, because he got off to a brutal start thanks to Joe Torre’s bizarre usage of him out of the pen. On April 24, he was 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA; from that point on he was 16-6 with a 2.75 ERA. So sure, the increase is always a concern, but Billingsley has shown no signs that he’ll fall victim to this “curse”.

2)  After giving Juan Pierre a $44 million, five-year contract, isn’t Manny worth about $300 million over ten years?  Is it the “Colletti no talkie to Boras” thing that’s stopping Manny from signing with the Dodgers?  If need be, could Manny Be Manny’s agent?  If so, please act out Manny negotiating a contract.

First of all, let’s not use Juan Pierre’s contract as a comparison point for anyone. If the 5/$44m he’s getting was actually his fair market value, then the minimum salary for rookies would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $12m/year. Seriously, if Bobby Abreu’s only getting one year and $5m, what would Pierre’s market value be right now? $500k? What’s stopping Manny from signing with the Dodgers isn’t Colletti not talking to Boras; it’s Boras not wanting to swallow his pride and admit that he grossly overestimated Manny’s worth. At this point, it’s just a waiting game – the Dodgers have no other options with Dunn and Abreu off the board, but Manny has no other options to offer anywhere near what the Dodgers have. I don’t know how long it’s going to take, but I think he ends up coming back to LA on a 3 year deal worth between $65-$70m – which would be exactly what I said way back in October. So we may have had to suffer through four months of this just to get back to where it should have been in the first place.

3) I called Blake DeWitt a 2009 fantasy sleeper. Am I right as Chocolate Rain or drunk? And why?

Blake DeWitt has to be one of the most unpredictable players in baseball right now. His line from last year may not say much, but just look at how his 2008 unfolded. Though he was a former first round pick, he was coming off some uninspiring minor league seasons in A and AA and was somewhere around the 7th option at third base – even falling behind “screw it, let’s just fix our outfield logjam by playing all four and forgetting the hot corner” and “hey, why don’t we play our All-Star catcher there?” Most predicted that he’d flop miserably, yet he came up and was great for two months, even to the point where I noted in May that he was a top-5 MLB 3B. Then he started to fail so badly for two months that by July I was calling for him to be demoted (he eventually was), only to return as the everyday 2B in September and the playoffs, and with a much more productive bat than he’d left with.

My point is, I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Blake DeWitt in 2009. He could hit .320 with 20 homers; he could hit .220 and be back in the minors by May; he could be caught speeding down the Pacific Coast Highway with 3 Guatemalan hookers and the corpse of Ricardo Montalbon in his trunk. Nothing would surprise me from him.

4)  The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles pitchers are always good for fantasy because of their weak hitting division and home stadium (even Chan Ho Park!).  Give me the rotation, as you see it.

The top 4 starters are pretty set right now with Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf. The 5th slot likely goes to Jason Schmidt if he’s healthy, but since he’s at about Nomar levels of durability, we’ll also see a battle between youngsters James McDonald & Ramon Troncoso, quad-A type Eric Stults, and the corpses of Shawn Estes, Eric Milton, and Claudio Vargas. It’s funny that you mention Park, however, because the Dodgers have had quite a bit of success in taking washed-up has-beens and wrangling a few months of decent performances out of them (see: Park, Aaron Sele, Scott Erickson). LA had better hope so; while the top 4 is talented, each has health or durability questions to worry about, and while it may be one thing to have the rest of the crew batting for the 5th starter job, it’s quite another to have Vargas, Schmidt, and Estes all in your rotation at the same time.

5)  With Alyssa Milano and Wilmer Valderrama as Dodgers fans and STD carriers, which current Dodger do you hope they pull into a threesome? And why?

The biggest tragedy of the offseason, as far as I’m concerned, is the loss of Brad Penny to the Red Sox. Not just because the Dodgers needed a starter, but mostly because he’ll be taking Eliza Dushku with him. To fill that void, I’d almost consider re-signing Brett Tomko, if only because his wife is a smoking hot former Playmate… but he’s so awful at actually, you know, “playing baseball” that it’s probably not worth it. As for current Dodgers, Andre Ethier seems to have a following among the “non-traditional male” category. But really, the most likely choice has to be Russell Martin – there’s already been rumors about him and Milano.

We’ve already gone over the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Other positions’ top 20 lists can be found under 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Now here we are with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. While going through this top twenty list of 2nd basemen something stood out at me.  The position is extremely shallow.  You really don’t want to have to resort to the bottom half of this list, but this list is actually deeper than the top twenty shortstop list that is coming later in the week.  Scary, right?  As with the previous lists, tiers are mentioned within the player blurbs.  My 2009 fantasy baseball projections are also noted.  Here’s the list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Chase Utley – In the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post is Utley’s 2009 projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – In the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post is Kinsler’s 2009 projections.

3. Brandon Phillips – You’re in a new tier here, one that goes to Uggla.  I call this tier, “If the spot is right, draft one of these guys, but they’re probably going to be overrated.”  I really took a left turn on this top 20 list.  I’ve never been a fan of Brandon Phillips, but I see lots of people zigging, so what did I do? Zagged!  Barring injury, he can get to 25/25 while raising his average a bit from last year.  I’d let the rest of the schmohawks in your league grab Pedroia, Brian Roberts or Uggla while you grab Phillips.  (BTW, I already covered Brandon Phillips in a different post.)  2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25

4. Alexei Ramirez – Another guy I bumped up higher than most fantasy baseball ‘perts.  At the end of 2009, Alexei Ramirez is going to be above Dustin Pedrioa on top 20 2nd basemen lists.  Why are you drafting your 2009 fantasy team like it’s 2008?  Are you in college in Boston and you bet your friend you would draft Pedroia if he finished a whole bottle of Mad Dog 20/20?  Pedroia had a great 2008, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be incredible in 2009.  Good, but not incredible.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15

5. Dustin Pedroia – I was pushing Scrappy Doo real hard last year in the preseason.  I was telling people he can be a cheap 15/15 player.  And he can still go 15/15, but why is he suddenly being pushed by others like he’s King Shinola of Siam?  Did King Shinola die and make Pedroia King?  I don’t think King Shinola died.  Pedroia won an MVP in about the stankest of years for MVP candidates ever.  People taking him in the 2nd round of 2009 drafts need to chillax.   2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15

6. Brian Roberts – It’s no secret that I didn’t like Brian Roberts last year.  Guess what?  Still don’t.  2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30

7. Dan Uggla – Uggla’s a solid, low average power source.  He’s like mini-Dunn, which sounds like what an insensitive guy would tell his girlfriend if he wanted a break. “We’re not breaking up, we’re just mini-Dunn.”  2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5

8. Robinson Cano – We’re in a new tier here.  This tier goes until Kendrick.  This tier I call, “Good value before we get to total Crapolanco.”   2009 Projections:  80/18/85/.310/3

9. Kelly Johnson – Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez and Mark DeRosa are a coin flip.  You want the Braves schmohawk who’s going to give you 14/10 or you want the Indians or Mariners schmohawk who is going to give you 15/5.  It’s called Schmohawk’s Choice.  2009 Projections:  90/14/65/.285/10

10. Jose Lopez – Looking at cursory numbers at the end of November had me thinking Lopez was going to be a great sleeper for 2009.  As I dug deeper, I realized he’s not really due to take a huge jump forward.  Though he could repeat last year’s numbers, which makes him moderately valuable.  Kinda like your nana’s broach.  Projections:  80/15/85/.280/5

11. Mark DeRosa – I’m seeing him a lot higher on other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings lists so take necessary precautions to not overrate him.  A career year at 33-years-old screams outlier.  2009 Projections:  75/15/70/.280/5

12. Rickie Weeks – Call me a stewpid bizzlenitch.  I don’t care.  Old habits die hard.  I believe in leaving at least a $3 tip even if the bill is under $10, I believe you should live with a girl before you get married and I believe in Rickie Weeks.  Maybe I’m a dope.  2009 Projections:  90/15/60/.250/20

13. Howie Kendrick – What are we to expect from Kendrick?  A) Injuries B) Blah power C) A little speed D) Anything’s better than Polanco.  2009 Projections:  70/7/55/.310/10 and two 15-day DL trips.

14. Placido Polanco – This is a new tier and it goes from Crapolanco until Orlando Hudson.  I call this tier, “Punt.”  Seriously, why are you drafting Polanco?  What’s he going to do for you?  Take a flier on Kendrick or wait to take a flier on some late round doode.   2009 Projections:  90/7/55/.310/7

15. Kaz Matsui – In 2008, Kaz Matsui had a usable season even if he had to wear diapers for half the season.  Sorta like Jamie Moyer.  2009 Projections:  65/5/40/.280/20

16. Freddy Sanchez -  See Crapolanco.  Not even sure why I’m wasting my time writing up this schmohawk.  2009 Projections:  80/10/60/.285

17. Orlando Hudson – O-Dog is a poor man’s Polanco.  Blah!  2009 Projections:  75/10/45/.280/5

18. Mike Aviles – Here’s the final tier of 2nd basemen.  I’ll call this tier, “A-Ha! Take on me.”  Aviles won’t bat .325 again; he probably won’t bat .300.  In the end, he might not end up much better than 10/10, but he’s got some mystery to him.  The unknown is better than the known when you’re this deep into the 2nd basemen pool.  2009 Projections:  80/10/55/.295/10

19. Blake DeWitt – I already covered him in a Blake DeWitt, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper post.  You’re much better off taking DeWitt late instead of Polanco, Matsui or Hudson.  2009 Projections:  60/14/75/.275/7

20. Emmanuel Burriss/Eugenio Velez – Whichever schmohawk wins the Giants 2nd base job as long as it’s not Kevin Frandsen.  With this pick, you’re going for SAGNOF.  2009 Projections:  A badonkadonk of steals.

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Ian Stewart – I already went here in the Ian Stewart 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  I could’ve put him up with Aviles, but I wanted to highlight him down here.  Just make sure he’s eligible for 2nd base in your league.  2009 Projections:  65/17/80/.265/5 (<–optimistic, but reachable)

Asdrubal Cabrera – With a first name that sounds like what Kaz Matsui was suffering from in the beginning of 2008, it’s easy to overlook Asdrubal Cabrera for 2009 fantasy baseball.  But Asdrubal (hehe, I said “but Asdrubal”) had a solid 2nd half last year.  Okay, this was preceded by him being sent down to the minors.  Cabrera won’t put together his 2008 2nd half over an entire season in 2009, but he’s worth the flier over some of the above names cough Polanco cough.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.275/10

I’m not sure if Jeff Kent will retire. I’m sure his wife doesn’t want him to retire because he seems like he’d be a miserable prick around the house. Why doesn’t this remote work?! She sighs, “You have to turn on the TV first.” Maybe he lands as a DH somewhere in the AL. Either way, Kent prolly won’t be on the Dodgers next year. So that opens 2nd base in 2009 for the Dodgers. This should be filled by Blake DeWitt, no relation to Joyce DeWitt, against righties and Mark Loretta against the occasional lefty. Okay, so what can we expect from Blake DeWitt for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

In 2008, Blake DeWitt was rushed to the majors to fill-in at 3rd base prior to the Casey Blake move. He was marginally meh, but never quite eh or feh. He has limited power and speed. Kent could prolly out-homer him even in his 41st year on the planet and Rickey Henderson could still outrun him. Blake’s ideal 2009 has him at about 60/14/75/.275/7. Kelly Johnson just yawned reading those numbers.  Now Blake also has corner and middle eligibility (here’s a list of all the players that have multiple position eligiblity for 2009), and there won’t be many 2nd basemen who come as discounted as Blake in 2009 fantasy drafts. Some of the schmohawks I’ve seen drafted before Blake are Mark Loretta, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Mark Grudzielanek and Marco Scutaro.  I just vomited in my mouth writing some of those names. So towards the end of your NL-Only drafts or very deep mixed leagues, Blake DeWitt is a good sleeper name to have stashed away.