Fantasy Baseball Advice

We continue our 2010 fantasy baseball keeper posts with B.J. Upton.  At first, I was going to write about Justin Upton, but I figured he was such a no-brainer that I didn’t need to dedicate a keeper post to him.  Of course he’s a keeper.  B.J.’s much more interesting.  In his short major league career, he’s shown all the tools that once had the scouts drooling over him.  B.J., tools, drooling, you do the math.  Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown them all the tools at the same time.  A B.J. hasn’t had this many ups and downs since Chloe Sevigny in The Brown Bunny.  The closest B.J., um, came was at the age of 22 in 2007 when he hit 24 homers and stole 22 bases while batting .300 in 474 at-bats.  That season led everyone to the assumption Upton was a sure 30/30 threat.  Unlimited potential.  He was like Hal Ashby before the 80’s.  Then Upton’s age 23 season came and his power disappeared.  Hrmph.  Reports came out that he was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder.  It zapped his power.  We excused him.  The 44 steals made the medicine go down.  In 2009, it was more of the same and this time the average bottomed out, too.  So where’s the power?  Is it ever returning?  What’s up with the average?  Is he steals and nothing else?  To the point, is B.J. Upton a solid fantasy baseball keeper for 2010?

Let’s tackle average first.  In 2009, his line drive rate fell (15.4% from 18.9% in 2008) and his walks plummeted (9.2% from 15.4% in 2008).  Meantime, his fly ball rate went through the roof (for him) from 30.6% in 2008 to 40.3% in 2009.  His K-rate also went up.  This leads me to think he was swinging at balls he didn’t used to swing at and trying to do too much with them.  This isn’t much of a limb, the numbers bear this out with him swinging at nearly 5% more pitches outside the strike zone.  This might sound Tim McCarverish, but he needs to relax, wait for his pitch and his average should turn around.  I’d bet on a .270 average from him in 2010.  As for the evaporated power, it’s a bit trickier.  His home run per fly ball ratio in 2007 was 19.8%.  That seems to be an outlier.  He’s probably closer to a 10-12% home run to fly ball hitter.  That still puts him in the 15 homer range.  The steals are there, obviously.  So if a 15/40 hitter with a .270 average is a keeper for your team, I’d keep B.J. Upton.

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the recaps for hitters.  (Here’s all the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  Pitching recap will begin next.  (NOTE:  The end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.)  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Carlos Lee – How did he only get 65 Runs?  He played in a 160 games.  He batted .300.  He hit 26 homers.  He hit 4th the entire year.  Oh, wait, I know.  Geoff Blum hit 5th for the Astros in 171 at-bats.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7, Final Numbers:  65/26/102/.300/5

22. Andre Ethier – Maybe it’s because of the pitcher’s park or the pitcher’s division, but I never fully get behind Dodgers hitters.  Lukewarm on Russell Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake, Ethier and Manny.  Kemp I’m crazy for, but I think you have to be crazy to not be crazy for him.  Preseason Rank #46, 2009 Projections:  80/17/75/.290/5, Final Numbers:  92/31/106/.272/6

23. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

24. Nick Markakis - Here we see the problem with relying on 25 homer power.  In an off year, they hit 18 homers and you wanna strangle someone.  Markakis had two months where he hit one homer (June and September) and one month of 2 homers (April).  His speed continues to decline.  He now has back-to-back seasons of 5 homers vs. lefties.  Markakis isn’t done in my eyes (he’s only going to be 26 in 2010), but I really would like to see 30 homers before going caca-cuckoo for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10, Final Numbers:  94/18/101/.293/6

25. Nelson Cruz – His season was actually much better than this ranking and that will be reflected in January when I go over 2010 rankings.  I say it’s much better because Runs and RBIs are a symptom of the guys around him.  The homers and steals can’t be taught, and he has them.  He could easily be a top 15 outfielder with better Runs and RBIs.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10, Final Numbers:  75/33/76/.260/20

26. Rajai Davis – After the All-Star Break, he stole 30 bases and hit .325.  DNA samples taken in the 2nd half of the season showed there was a 99.8% chance that Rajai was Carl Crawford.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/3/48/.305/41

27. Jason Kubel – In February, I alluded to how he was better value than Jermaine Dye.  And that’s me alluding to me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280, Final Numbers:  73/28/103/.300/1

28. Raul Ibanez – My call on him being a 2nd half hitter looked about as good as Lady Gaga’s clothing choices.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3, Final Numbers:  93/34/93/.272/4

29. Scott Podsednik – Sometime in May, Ozzie called him into his office.  This is what transpired.  “I want vintage Podsednik!”  “I don’t know if I have it in me, Skip.”  “Skip?!  What is that?  Punta talk?  Now go uncork a 2004 Podsednik!”  And he did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/7/48/.304/30

30. Adam Dunn – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

31. Hunter Pence – The same thing that hampered Carlos Lee also got Pence.  It’s called the lack of an Astros offense.  With a little help in Runs and RBIs, Pence would’ve been ranked much higher.  Preseason Rank #35, 2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10, Final Numbers:  76/25/72/.282/14

32. Curtis Granderson - There was a whole lot of math done recently on Granderson’s year.  Long story short, he should’ve hit in the .270s rather than the .240s.  As is my wont, I usually ignore average anyway when a guy brings something else to the table.  Grandy brings 30/20.  That’s a whole lotta something else.  I feel like I may be owning Grandy next year on a few teams.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17, Final Numbers:  91/30/71/.249/20

33. Franklin Gutierrez – Back in February, I said, “I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16, Final Numbers:  85/18/70/.283/16

34. B.J. Upton – You know what would be nice?  Beej living up to(n) his potential.    Upton’s in the same category as Grandy.  Come February, I’ll be ignoring his bad average.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35, Final Numbers:  79/11/55/.241/42

35. Marlon Byrd – I suggested in the preseason that you grab Byrd and David Murphy and platoon them.  Turns out you would’ve done fine just owning them both and playing them.  Preseason Rank #68, 2009 Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10, Final Numbers:  66/20/89/.283/8

36. Nate McLouth – McLousy turned in an old school Mike Cameron season.  20/20 — yay!  .256 — eh.  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22, Final Numbers:  86/20/70/.256/19

37. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate didn’t get his first at-bat of the season until June.  Go ahead, reread that sentence.  Now smize!  (The Tyra Banks definition, not the other one.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/12/54/.286/22

38. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s 2nd half was about as good as my ability to read Sumerian.  Apparently, the guy with the arrow on the ancient tablet means Hawpe shouldn’t be facing lefties.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280, Final Numbers:  82/23/86/.285/1

39. Juan Rivera – There should be a glossary term for these Juan Rivera types.  These players are available off of waivers in just about every 12 team league.  They don’t wow you with their numbers.  They don’t hurt your team.  They’re just there in your 5th outfielder slot.  Jason Kubel would be another one.  Each year, one steps up and does more than what is asked of them.  In 2008, it was Xavier Nady, this year it was Michael Cuddyer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/25/88/.287

40. Chris Coghlan – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

Four months ago, a torn tendon behind his right knee shut Jose Reyes down for the entire season.  That’s the good news.  In an attempt to return to a team that has been out of the playoff picture since July, Reyes tore his hamstring this week as he ran the bases.  His season is finally, completely, officially over.  Sure, it wouldn’t been nice to see him steal 65 bases and for the Mets to win 25 and a half games in the last three days of the season, but maybe trying to get him back for the last weekend of the season wasn’t the best idea.  Now his 2010 is going to be of the “Is he finally healthy?” variety rather than the “He’s finally healthy” variety.  Obviously more will be known as we get closer to next season.  I’m sure February Grey is preparing his status report as we speak.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 16 Ks.  Probably should’ve been the lead today, but I felt like ranting on the Mets.  You’ll forgive me.  Take out your Benihana Buddhas and pray that next March your leaguemates look at Nolasco’s 5.06 ERA and pass on him.   Then flip a shrimp tail into your hat.

Brendan Donnelly – Got the save by picking off a runner.  Leo Nunez probably would’ve been fine if it wasn’t for some porous defense behind him.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Extremely hard to argue with the season Vazquez had.  I mean, you can argue with it, but you’d be screaming at a bunch of stats on a piece of paper and that’s just silly.

Charlie Morton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks.  A four run lead is obviously more comfortable than an 11-1 lead that John Russell yanked Zach Duke from the other day.  When you figure it out, let me know because I’m baffled.

Ryan Doumit – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 3 Runs and a HR yesterday in the nightcap.  His nightcap had stripes and a little fuzzy ball on the end of it.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Ricciardi can now trade Halladay for the Taj Mahal.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.   On July 28th, he had a 5.17 ERA.  He now has a 3.84.  August and September, he had a combined 2.00 ERA.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-4 with a steal yesterday.  He has 8 homers and 10 steals in 38 games.  Charades time!  I’m making a tree shape… Has fronds… Palm! Right!  Sideshow Bob! No, wait a second.  I’m making a diving motion near the palm tree… We’re in a desert…  Mirage! Yes!  That’s Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs is the Mirage casino where Siegfried and Roy used to perform? No.  Forget it.

Justin Masterson – 9 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Wow, were there any poor pitching performances yesterday?  (This is what you get when teams don’t play their first-stringers.  This is also why H2H is kinda lacking.)

Carl Pavano – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ah, yes.  There’s a poor performance.  Mussina always said Pavano’s got no heart.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-3 as he hit his 31st homer yesterday.  He has an outside chance at .300.  Incredible.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5 with a homer.  He has 270 at-bats, 13 homers and 16 steals.  In 300 at-bats, Beltran has 10 homers and 11 steals.

Hiroki Kuroda – Scratched from Saturday’s start.  Kershaw will fill in for him.  Should be the Rockies B lineup, may not be a bad start to gamble on.

Corey Hart – Probably done for the year with two fractured fingers.  No word if he hurt himself by bumping into something while wearing his stupid sunglasses at night.

Casey McGehee – 2-for-5, HR yesterday.  He has 16 homers in 345 at-bats.  He’ll have 2nd base eligibility next year.  Cust kayin’.

B.J. Upton – Two steals yesterday.  No one’s going to argue that the .238 average is a travesty, but he has 10 homers and 41 steals in only 140 games.  I’m buying for next year.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 0 ER.  C’mon, you’re digging the HodgePadres just a bit, right?

Brad Penny – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  When I say NL, you say West.  NL… West… NL… West…  You got it.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Ah, well, here’s to him being a sleeper again next year I guess.

Adam Moore – Hit his first homer of his career.  He’s considered by many as the Mariners catcher of the future.  So that means he’ll diddle himself in the minors for three years, get called up, be given no real opportunity then get sent away in a deal with the Pirates for some futility infielder.

Jamie Moyer – Out for the season/playoffs with torn muscles in his groin and abdomen.  I told you to let the kids move the sofa!

Joba Chamberlain – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Talk about someone who fantasy owners will have no idea what to do with next year.

J.R. Towles – 2 HRs yesterday.  About 18 months too late for most.

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  As I was skimming the boxscores to do this roundup, I saw F. Carmona and I was like, “You got that right ESPN!”

Who doesn’t love to show their frenemies their fantasy baseball teams in October and say, “Look at what I won with?”  Then they see Juan Uribe and they’re confounded, “How did you win with Juan Uribe?”  That is the secret to fantasy baseball in September.  If you win your league, I guarantee someone will look at your team at the end of the year and be completely confused by some of the guys you own.  Cliff Pennington?  Robinson Tejeda?  Did the other teams in your league quit? No, you’re playing hot guys.  This is imperative at this time of the year.  Imperative is the important word to know.  Juan Uribe has not only been incredibly hot, but Uribe will confound your frenemies!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Juan Francisco – If I had to take a wild guess, I think Francisco will (try to) man the hot corner in the 2nd half of 2010 after the Reds unload Rolen for spare parts.  I say (try to) because Dusty doesn’t always play rookies.  Also, Francisco’s no guarantee.  He feels a bit to me like Troy Glaus, or even Chris Davis without the Bill James-inspired optimism, i.e., he strikes out nearly once per game and doesn’t walk enough.  He could provide some pop in deep NL-Only keepers.  This isn’t for you, mixed leaguers.

Robinson Tejeda – Wouldn’t be surprised if February Grey has nice things to say about Tejeda.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – He’s been good for a while now.  Like, the whole season.  So is Rowland his maiden name?

Vicente Padilla – After you read Uribe and now Padilla, I’m sure many of you are going to skim the rest of the post.  I don’t blame you.

Kevin Jepsen – SAGNOF!

Dan Wheeler – Could be the closer, but the Rays haven’t had a save since August.  It’s kinda not worth it, but if you’re in a pinch then I’d look at Wheeler since Maddon has said Howell and Balfour are on restrictions (bed by 9, no carbs and a low pitch count) for the rest of the season.

Matt LaPorta – Look at his last week of stats.  Yes, the MLP Package is finally on.

Drew Stubbs – Showing a bunch of power for a guy who looks like he wouldn’t be able to open the pickle jar.

Casey Blake – Currently murdering the ball like his brother, Robert… Well, you get it.

Brett Gardner – The Yankees are coasting into the ‘offs and Gardner could see an increase in playing time.  That means steals.

Kaz Matsui – Obviously, he’s the less glamorous of the Matsuis (Matsuii?) with a markedly smaller porn collection — buy at least a raincoat, man — but no hitter has been hotter over the past week.

Cliff Pennington – Batting near .400 over the last week with a homer and a steal.  And he sounds like a villain from an 80s movie — You spilled beer on my Izod!

Nick Swisher – Nick, your sideburns were just a crutch. Thank you, random italicized voice!

SELL

Yovani Gallardo – If you’re moving in the Tejedas and Uribes, you need to make room.  Gallardo is getting shutdown.  But he doesn’t wanna!  Yeah, that’s nice.  He should’ve been shut down a month ago.  Now I’m worried about him for next year because of all of his innings this year.  See, now you done worried me.

Chipper Jones – Lose the Glass Chipper.

B.J. Upton – Who’s the Boss?  Apparently, not the Bossman.

Rich Harden – Hasn’t been good recently and now he’s getting skipped.  I’m sure there’s better options out there.

Josh Hamilton – I don’t enjoy being right when I say a player is going to fail and they do.  Okay, let me rephrase that.  I do enjoy being right when I say someone is going to fail and they do.  There, that’s better.

Brian Duensing went seven innings with no earned runs, 11 baserunners and 6 Ks.  I almost started him, but he was going vs. the A’s and they’ve hurt me so many times this year.  I think I owned the losing pitcher for every one of their wins.  The rest of the way, Duensing gets the Tigers twice and the Royals once.  Not terrible starts.  The Tigers hitting isn’t as good as their record and the Royals, well, ya know.  Duensing probably won’t provide you with a ton of Ks, but he has solid control and a last name that sounds like an Indonesian prison.  (BTW, his last name may only sound like that because of my new favorite TV show, Locked Up Abroad.  Next time I go abroad, I’m not even going to mule in any exotic fruit.  BTW II, instead of mule, shouldn’t they call these smugglers jackasses?  I apologize to any of our drug dealing readers.  You know who you are.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton – Didn’t played for three games, then returned to go 0-for-3 in the 2nd game of yesterday’s doubleheader as the Rays fade from the playoff picture.  In September, the Rays have the 2nd worst Run total while batting .214.  Good to know for match ups.

Brad Lidge – You’re the manager of the Phils, let’s call you, Charlie Manuel.  So you’re “Charlie Manuel” and you have a 5-2 lead going into the ninth vs. one of the worst lineups.  Do you go to your ramshackle closer to try to build his confidence or do you go to ramshackle setup man-turned-closer or do you interrupt Brett Myers, who’s in the middle of boxing a kangaroo?  You go to Lidge, who nearly blows the save, and avoid Madson who blew the save on Saturday.

Ryan Madson – For the Phils nightcap, they decided to go with a less-aged scotch and gave Madson the save.

Pedro Martinez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, then he poured out an eyedropper for the dwarfs who weren’t there.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 7 baserunners (one hit).  He gets the White Sox next.  It’s not an ideal match-up, but Davies has now thrown four solid starts in a row and shut out the White Sox the last time he faced them in Chicago.

Pete Orr – HR yesterday.  He can cross that off his bucket list.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-5 yesterday, 4-for-4 on Saturday.  Tomorrow… lassoing the moon!

Paul Maholm – 8 IP, 0 ER.  It’s not a September run in the H2H playoffs unless you’re starting guys you don’t trust.  Maholm gets the Padres next.

Lance Berkman – HR yesterday and his third in the last four games.  Waco my airplane…

Tommy Hunter – 9 IP, 2 ER.  And the Rangers are in the top half of the league in pitching.  Zoinks!

Chris Carpenter – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Sorry to talk real baseball, but this start might’ve cost him the Cy Young.

Derrek Lee – Hit his 32nd homer yesterday.  After a terrible April and a yawnstipating May, he hit a random homer in June and I said, “Now has his average up to .253.  I know, big whoop!  But, and I might be alone on this island, I think he’s got a month or two hot streak in him.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Turned out he had about a four month hot streak in him.  Unfortunately, the steals have completely vanished from his game.

Torii Hunter – HR yesterday.  Since I’m looking down at my nuggets to offer up nuggets, when he was at 17/13 on July 3rd, I said, “My gratuity calculator is telling me if you own Hunter, you’ve gotten more production from him than you will if you continue to hold him.” He’s now at 21/16.  So he’s gone 4/3 since early July.  That’s like one week from Robot Jones.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 2 ER.  After his rough stretch following his perfect game, he seems to be settling down.  He gets the Royals next.

Kendry Morales – 1-for-3, No reason to talk about him here, but this caught my eye.  He’s been caught stealing 7 times and he’s been successful one time.  Elias Sports Bureau said this is the most caught stealings for a guy who shouldn’t be running in the first place.  Actually, they didn’t say that, but something that was overheard this week in the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “For the first time ever, Natalie, in stats research, had a nervous breakdown when Jim, in Human Resources, refused her Mafia Wars invitation.”

Russell Martin – Back to back games now with homers.  Nice of Martin to show in mid-September.

Chad Billingsley – 4 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners vs. the Giants, who are just barely above the Padres as the worst offensive team in the league.  Oh, Billingsley.

Juan Uribe – HR yesterday.  If you need MI pop, he’s poppin’.

Jake Peavy – Thinks he can return by this weekend vs. the Royals.  He said yesterday, “The stamina was definitely better, the sharpness of everything (that can easily beat the Royals), the fastball command (that will strike out Royal hitters), the breaking ball (that the Royals hitters won’t be able to hit), so I’ll be ready to get in a game (versus the Royals) sometime soon.”

Hideki Matsui – 3-for-5, HR, 5 RBIs yesterday.  When he got home, his wife congratulated him.  She’s very animated.

Derek Jeter – 3-for-5, 3 Runs.  Big weekend for Jeter as he passed Gehrig’s Yankee hit record.  Now he only has one hallowed Yankee record left, the Most Times He Has To Defend A-Rod Without Actually Defending Him Only To Later Write A Book Defaming Him.  Record currently held by Joe Torre.