Time to move on from the 2013 data (quit livin’ in the past, man) and get to the 2014 SAGNOF previews. Just a disclaimer, these posts are mainly focused on guys who will go later in drafts or possibly even undrafted in some shallower leagues – in other words cheap. You won’t see much written about Billy Hamilton or Jean Segura or Jacoby Ellsbury around these parts since their stolen-base contributions will most likely cost you quite a bit. This is all about *not* paying for steals (Steals Ain’t Got NO Face).Please, blog, may I have some more?
Before we get this post-Turkey celebration of When Fantasy Baseball Writers Have Nothing To Do In The Offseason up and running, I’d like to pass along a special thanks to our very own Grey Albright and Bryan Curley of Baseball Professor for setting up this multi-site super exposition of the aforementioned When Fantasy Baseball Writers Have Nothing To Do In The Offseason, or WFBWHNTDITO, if you’re into the whole brevity thing. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, then you can find the Round 1-5 Recap by clicking on this conveniently placed hyperlink right… about… now. And for the full results, you can check them out here. (If nineties website design is your crème de jour, enjoy that layout bro.) Anyhow, let’s get this going after the jump so I can go make some turkey sammiches.Please, blog, may I have some more?
And that might be conservative. I’ve seen people projecting him to steal 60, 70, or even 80 bases since that’s what recent league leaders have done. However, I see no reason to try to project Hamilton’s steals by comparing him to recent league leaders. He is not any of those other players and has demonstrated that he is clearly an anomaly in terms of speed, which means that it makes sense to treat him as an individual case. Anyway, here’s my thinking, assumptions, and the Billy Hamilton steal calculation:
500 at bats x .295 OBP x running 80% of time x successful 85% of time = 100 SBsPlease, blog, may I have some more?
SAGNOF refers to “saves/steals ain’t got no face”. In other words, they can come from unlikely sources throughout the season and us fantasy baseball folk shouldn’t sell the farm for them on draft day. Let me tell you, 2013 was no exception. When I received my series assignment from Grey earlier this year, I was excited to explore steals as a topic for my column, if only because I knew it would help a lot of people out there do better in the category. I also couldn’t recall many other fantasy sites hitting steals as a primary topic week-in and week out, so hats off to Razzball for being ahead of the game yet again.
It was fascinating to follow along as players rose and fell in value based on steals alone, and even more fascinating to watch match-ups against certain teams yield steals in bunches. This offseason, I’ll be posting every other week and sticking with the stolen base as my focus. We’ll start by taking a look back, but then we’ll shift our gaze forward to 2014 and see if we can get a leg up on the competition prior to our drafts next spring. Let’s get started with a look at the big picture when it comes to steals over the last five years…Please, blog, may I have some more?
I just spent thirty minutes looking up what Jere Burns has been up to. Ah, the offseason. You are a soothing mistress that touches my naughty bits with idle hands. A quick preamble about the 2014 fantasy baseball rookie series that is coming from me over the next few weeks. Rookies are picked through MLB eligibility requirements, less than 130 ABs or 50 IP. That means no Avisail Garcia, no Michael Wacha and no Danny Salazar. In 2012, the first batter I highlighted was Mike Trout. That wasn’t an accident. I said in the Mike Trout post that “he’s ranked number one for me. Numero uno. The Big Mahoff. He’s the big Statue of Liberty in New York, not that girly one in Paris!” Last year, the first batter I highlighted was Wil Myers. You see a pattern? Eh, slow your juices on the thinking. I’ll tell you. The first rookie I highlight will be a top rookie for fantasy. This prospect isn’t no ordinary man, this is the prospect I be seeing in my sleep. Billy Hamilton will be your number one fantasy rookie for next year. With Dusty’s toothpick out of Cincy, how will playing time shake out for Hamilton? What if the toothpick stays, but Dusty goes? How will food shake out of Dusty’s teeth? Will Dusty be relegated to coaching Little League games, which will mean there will be no new major league pitchers in ten years because he’ll ruin them at twelve years old? So many questions and so little time to look up Jere Burns info! Anyway, what can we expect of Billy Hamilton for 2014 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
The gang got back together for one last podcast of the year (though we might do one in December when players start getting traded and whatnot), and it was a blast (was not a blast)! First, Rudy said this and then I said that and Nick said actually. To think, before Thomas Einstein there was no such thing as podcasts. Or was it Albert Graham Bell? Any the hoo! On today’s podcast, we talked about the best and worst that 2013 had to offer. I mentioned Paul Goldschmidt only a few bazillion times and that wasn’t even half as many times that I mentioned how I beat Rudy in our league. All in all, a fine afternoon spent with old friends. That’s what you should say after you listen to our ramblings. Nick also revealed plans to move to Florida and I revealed plans for my bachelor party that is coming in ten days. I hope to return from Vegas after said trip with a few more mental scars. “Yelp is giving good reviews for a place called The Glory Hole. Says you have to try the breasts.” That’s us planning our next move prior to not remembering anything. On the podcast, we also mention some rookies for next year — Billy Hamilton anyone? — and who we are avoiding for next year. Anyway, here’s the Razzball podcast (now with us waxing poetic):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, it was the day of the pitcher. Since I started this blog, I can’t remember a more pitcher dominated day. Did anyone get a hit yesterday in any game outside of Coors? Put on your long johns with the flap on the butt, the Dead-ball Era is back. Yesterday reminded me when I was in a heated battle for 1st place in my first fantasy league. The year was nineteen-naught-eight. Skeets Lincoln was a staunch racist, unlike his great-uncle, and I hated him for it, but my Gramsie said, “You’re gonna get polio sitting on the radiator,” and I realized how short life was so I grabbed Skeets and he went 1-for-4 with 4 steals (at that time there were seven bases between first and home). Yesterday, Kyle Lohse threw a gem, but, really, who didn’t. He kept the Braves to two hits with no walks and five Ks. He ends the year with a 3.35 ERA and less Ks than a Klan rally as Skeets would’ve said. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
First off, I just want to say a quick thank you to all of the readers who welcomed me this year. Your comments and questions were always appreciated and they are what make Razzball the best site around for fantasy baseball. As Grey mentioned in the BUY post last Friday, the best strategy at this point is to unload anybody who isn’t helping you win right now, so with that in mind we’ll look at three options who are possibly available to help your team gain some ground in steals over these last few games. Just as a general strategy for those in weekly leagues, since steals are a counting stat it would be a good idea to look at guys who have 7 games as opposed to 6 left on the schedule to try to squeeze every last statistical drop out of them. As far as daily leagues go, playing the matchups like we have all year is a good idea. Teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rays, Phillies, Padres, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Nationals, and Giants have given up the most stolen bases this year and they are all teams to target when deciding who to start against for steals.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Cardinals are sick of Edward Mujica not playing way over his head like the rest of their entire team. “You see Joe Kelly? He sucks and he’s pitching well. You see Seacrest?” “You mean Siegrist?” “Yeah, him. He’s dynamite! Pitch better than you’ve ever pitched in your life or you’re out.” Mujica couldn’t find the intestinal fortitude (maybe he didn’t eat enough Thai food) and was replaced from the closing role for a few days. The Cards bullpen is solid behind him, which makes it difficult to pinpoint who exactly is his replacement. It could be John Axford, Trevor Rosenthal or Kevin Siegrist. I’d own any of them, but more because of how solid they’ve been. For saves, I’d rank them Rosenthal, Axford then Siegrist. Then there’s Mark Melancon. Like a guy who never flushes his toilet, the crap has caught up to him and the Pirates are now going ‘one day at a time’ for who their closer is, which I believe was Clint Hurdle’s nod to the late-great Bonnie Franklin. Bonnie, we miss you every day and we love your son, Nick, for the man you made him. I’d absolutely own Jason Grilli if I were chasing saves, but I wouldn’t drop Melancon either. Unless you don’t need saves and no one can catch you because you’re more bomb dot com and less bomb dot org. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I wonder if Marge Schott’s family sits around and talks about what Marge would’ve thought of Billy Hamilton‘s thievery. I wonder too if they’d do it on our podcast, because I bet it would be totally off-color, so to speak. “First of all, Marge had a great respect for people and would’ve loved a chance to apologize for the comments she made about African-Americans, Jews, Japanese, Chinese, Tongans, Georgians, the people from the country above Armenia and the people of the great state of Georgia, Quizno’s, the fast food restaurant, I don’t think there’s people who register Quizno as a nationality or religion and Pomeranians — she only kicked one because she thought it was a ferret…Guess that means she would’ve apologized to ferrets too. So, your question is, what would she have thought of Billy Hamilton? She would’ve loved him to fetch her Nazi flatware.” That’s a Marge Schott family member on the podcast. You don’t need to be a rocket surgeon to know what Hamilton gives you for fantasy. Even if he only starts one game the rest of the year, he could get you a point in steals and for that it’s worth owning him, even if you have to put him on your bench on his days off. If you don’t think he can steal four bags again in a game, you don’t know two of his steals on Wednesday were on pitch outs. That means not only did everyone know he was stealing, but the pitcher and catcher did all they could to stop him. They still couldn’t. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:`Please, blog, may I have some more?