Fantasy Baseball Advice

When Heath Bell looked like garbage on Sunday, Frank Francisco returned serve with three of his own runs.  It was like watching a tennis match between Jon Lovitz and that guy from Felicity.  Rather than getting the hook by his manager, Frank-Frank was ejected for arguing balls and strikes.  The ump should’ve told him, “With your stuff, I wouldn’t have the balls to throw strikes either.”  Jon Rauch is next in line here, but, before the ink can dry on his neck, he could lose the job too.  Though, I would grab him, in the non-sexual way.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ike Davis – Sat out yesterday with flu-like symptoms.  Like.  Oh.  My.  Gahd.  I hopes it’s not Valley Fever.

Heath Bell – Ozzie Guillen has come to the conclusion that Edward Mujica and Steve Cishek are simply just as awful at closing games as Bell has been, so they might as well go with the guy with the bad contract.  So, once again, Bell is officially unofficially your Marlins closer and, as previously mentioned, he gave up two runs on Sunday.  I’d continue to hold Cishek and Mujica.  Bell needs to either go to the Disgraceful List or do some mop-up duty.  Despite the closer craziness, the past week the Marlins have got it done, winning 10 of their last 12 games.  A rational person might say to me, “The Marlins have played the Giants, Padres and Astros as of late, don’t get too excited.”  I am an irrational person, so it must be their new uniforms!

Giancarlo Stanton – 3-for-5 with a grand slam.  Is it just me or are you waiting for him to announce his name is actually Giancarlos Tanton?

Joey Votto – 4-for-5, 4 runs, 6 RBIs and 3 homers.  Votto bing, Votto boom.

Brian Fuentes – Was named the new A’s closer.  I literally wrote everything else in this post then came back to this to make sure he was still the closer.  If I wake up at 3 AM tonight and stumble back to my office, he may no longer be the closer.  He’s on a short leash with a cone and muzzle.  If he gets too far off the leash, he doesn’t give his owners rabies, he gives them ERAbies.

Brandon McCarthy – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Look at him K’ing people with reckless a-Brandon.  McCarthy feels like one of those guys that you can get for cheap in a trade, but could be way more valuable.  He’s literally in every fifth comment as a guy people want to drop, and I use the word ‘literally’ metaphorically.

Jarrod Parker – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners (4 BBs), 5 Ks.  I doubt anyone’s actually buying (as in trading for), but you should be careful with Parker.  He’s due for some Liquid Paper getting dropped on his stats.

Bud Norris – Got the win on Friday with 6.0 IP, 1 ER and 8Ks.  Old James MacDonald pitched 8 innings and also struck out 8 in a pitchers’ duel.  And a Bud at McDonald’s is a combo meal in The Bootheel of Missouri.

Bryce Harper – On Friday, he threw his bat at the wall in frustration and needed 10 stitches as it bounced back and hit him in the head.  ESPN is auctioning off the bat with the proceeds going to TD (Teenaged Dipshits).

Wilson Ramos – Torn ACL and out for the year.  On the positive side, he’s now way too gimpy for kidnappers to lug around.

Danny Espinosa – Got a couple of hits on Sunday, homered Friday and Saturday while adding in two steals.  If it’s not obvious and you need me to spell it out, he’s H-O-T.

Henry Rodriguez – 2/3 IP, 4 ER with a massive blown save on Sunday.  I shut the game off before the Votto grand slam, knowing it was coming.  Then after it happened, I refreshed the box score a few times hoping it would change.  It’s a soul-crushing defeat when you know it’s gonna happen, then don’t believe it when it does.  Must’ve been what it felt like when Dewey tried to move his stuff into the White House with only a copy of the Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper.

Brian Dozier - 2-for-5 with his first homer.  I wouldn’t expect much here; he’s pretty yawnstipating.  It’s no coincidence that his last name is French for sleep (not true).

Scott Diamond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has back-to-back 7 inning scoreless starts.  In AL-Only leagues, he could provide some value if he can continue his low walk-rate and so-so K-rate.  But in AL-Only leagues, Bruce Chen is valuable, so take that with a grain of salt, which is a crystal as is a diamond.  How’s that for circular reasoning?

Andy Pettitte – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. the M’s.  Against a major league offense, that’s 5 IP, 5 ER.  That’s not exactly a comeback on par with Lance Armstrong returning less nutso.

Carlos Ruiz – 6th HR on Friday.  Ruiz is batting .330 and leads the Phillies offense along with Juan Pierre.  Or JuanCarlos if Stanton’s renaming them.

Jimmy Rollins – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  Only one more to catch Chone Figgins!

Jesus Montero -  Hit a home run on Friday against his old team as he punishes New York for trading him to the Mariners.  You could taste the bad blood.  Mmm… Iron.

Justin Smoak – Hit a homer yesterday and is 6 for his last 12 as he got to hit away from Safeco.  Gets Fenway and Coors this week and could be a short term play.  Seriously, no kindling with Smoak.

Addison Reed – Robin Ventura is planning on splitting his save chances between Thornton, Reed and Santiago.  I think it’s appropriate to call Ventura by his cartoon onomatopoeia name:  VenturARGH.  And, because Reed seemed like the guy to own, he gave up 6 earned runs in a third of an inning yesterday.  To give up 6 earned in a third of an inning is, like a bowling alley that doesn’t cater to dwarfs will tell ya, no small feat.   At this rate, I don’t think I’d pick up any White Sox relievers in any shallow mixed league.  I need this ulcer?  No, no I don’t.  If you really need the saves, I’d grab Santiago, Reed or Thornton, in that order.

Chris Sale – 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  When you go for a ‘precautionary’ MRI (something I get all the time!), and you’re moved around to help ‘save’ your elbow, then throw a pretty mediocre start, I think something is wrong and you’d be wise to sell him quickly.  But I’m not a doctor, though I did fall asleep while watching a Scrubs rerun last night.

Carlos Beltran – 4-for-5 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs on Friday and hit his 13th homer on Sunday.  He’s doing his best Albert Pujols impression, the pre-Angels Pujols.  Yes, it took Pujols to go to the Angels to become mortal.  The irony!

Allen Craig – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer on Sunday, after homering on Friday.  Bad enough that he double-dipped on first names when there’s people without one — R. Kelly, “Tell me about it!”  But now there’s people out there who can’t buy a homer in their leagues (me!) and this guy now has 5.

Rafael Furcal – 3-for-3 with his 7th steal, while batting .383 on the year.  Still think he’s more of an Early Bird Special than a Zombino.  You get two Facebook Likes if you understood that.

Lance Lynn – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If you’ve owned him all year, you know this is less spectacular than he’s been.  Or spectaculess, if you like portmanteaus.

Josh Hamilton – Homerton was 3-for-4 with two more home runs on Friday to bring his total to 17.  The first player since Albert Pujols (who?) in 2006 to hit that many home runs in only 33 games.  Then he hit his 18th homer on Saturday.  18 homers?  I have 31 homers in one of my NL-Only leagues.

Mike Trout – Got his first slam & legs on Friday.  In related rookie news, ESPN ran a feature on Bryce Harper’s TD telethon.

C.J. Wilson -  Got roughed up in his Texas homecoming by Hamilton and the boys 1/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER.  Then Matthew Modine started screaming “You wanna have another go at it” and Wilson agreed.  So, on Saturday, he went 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Then on Sunday, he rested.  Geez, with the God complex.

Mark Reynolds – Lands on the DL after throwing batting practice on Friday.  He said, “I got carried away with what I was trying to do.  It just looks so easy to strike me out.”

Xavier Avery – O’s called up their outfield prospect and played him in left field yesterday as he went 0-for-4.  Now for the Mystique behind X-Man.  He has some speed (and very light power), and will struggle to hit for much of an average in the majors.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s SAGNOF.

Jake Arrieta – 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER vs. the Rays.  He’s been absolutely clobbered in his last two starts.  I’d definitely look elsewhere, since I’m not a huge fan of O’s starters to begin with.  My O’s starter face is a straight line for my lips and a slow blink of the eyes.  It looks like ‘meh.’

Nick Johnson – Homered in back-to-back games that he started (Friday and Sunday).  He was in good spirits after the game, smiling in the locker room.

Danny Duffy – Left yesterday’s game with what is being described as “medial left elbow tightness.”  Sounds like medial up a different starter.

Alcides Escobar – 3-for-3, 2 runs and 1 RBI.  He’s been on and off my teams so many times the elastic is completely shot.

Jeff Francoeur – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs with his first Frenchy fly of the season, or Freedom Fly if you’re still harboring shizz.

Desmond Jennings – Has now missed six games with a sore knee.  Instead of day-to-day, they could’ve told us day-to-week.  Might’ve been helpful.

Ben Zobrist – Slam and legs with a side of mash (3 hits!) and Elliot Johnson also slammed, legged and mashed.  Johnson is 7 for his last 13 with two steals and a homer.  Could be a nice pickup if you’re struggling at MI.  BTW, if someone asks you if you’re struggling at MI, your answer is IM.

Carlos Marmol – Since the start this year, he looked like Apollo vs. Ivan Drago in the exhibition match.  Finally, the Cubs threw in the towel with Marmol’s head landing on top of it and on the Disgraceful List.

Bryan LaHair – Since Friday’s Sell, he’s 1-for-14 with 6 Ks.  Cust kayin’.

Jeff Samardzija – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  The best thing I can say about Samardetc. is I wish I owned him on all my teams.

Rickie Weeks – His wrist showed no breaks and his bat showed no hits.

Kevin Youkilis – Cleared to swing a bat.  Sounds like positive news for a guy at Hedonism after a cliff diving accident.

Will Middlebrooks – 2-for-3, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  If Youk pushes Middlebrooks to Triple-A, there’s gonna be a letter written to Jimmy Breslin from a Son of Sam Horn.

Matt Kemp – Left yesterday’s game aggravating his tight hamstring.  Said he’s going for an MRI, but will only miss a game.  Um, well, guess we can hope.  How do we get this hammy cured?  Because those are delicious.

Juan Rivera – Could miss two months with a ruptured hamstring tendon.  Dude, c’mon, the day of rupture isn’t until December 21st.

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

Okay, so it’s not the best 2012 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2012 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting from my top 100 for 2012 fantasy baseball and top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Honestly, I could draft another 25 teams from those lists, and they’d all be different.  If I took Longoria in the 1st round, everything after it would change.  For this exercise, I’m taking Swiggy first, because, well, I have him first overall.  Then once I take him at number one, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then choose two players within the next 24 picks, then 2 players in the next 24 picks and so on until the end of the top 100.  Just like a snake draft.  It would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Halladay, Verlander and Kershaw in the first round and I was able to take Longoria in the 2nd round, but since Miggy and him are in my first 10 picks, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Then, as we all know, once you get into the 100′s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  So for this exercise, once I get to pick #101, I’m going to pick two players every twenty picks, rather than every 24 picks.  That’s to account for the wide margin between ADP and where players are drafted.  Finally, because there is so much latitude in the last 100, I gave myself free reign to fill up my team.  Throughout the draft, I also gave myself the ability to reach to a lower draft pick, but not reach forward.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench, just like the Razzball Commenter Leagues that are signing up still.  Anyway, here’s the best 2012 fantasy baseball team:

C: Joe Mauer (10)

1B:  Miggy Cabrera (1)

2B:  Chase Utley (5)

3B:  David Wright (2)

SS: Dee Gordon (15)

MI: Zack Cozart (16)

CI: Adam Lind (7)

OF:  Jay Bruce (3)

OF: Drew Stubbs (6)

OF: Andre Ethier (8)

OF: Torii Hunter (12)

OF: Lorenzo Cain (17)

UTIL: Chris Heisey (25)

P:  Madison Bumgarner (4)

P: Anibal Sanchez (9)

P: Matt Moore (11)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (13)

P: Ryan Madson (14)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Walden (19)

P: Kyle Farnsworth (20)

P: Brad Peacock (21)

BENCH:

P:  Ted Lilly (22)

P: Jim Johnson (23)

P: Aroldis Chapman (24)

So what do we learn from that in the most general sense?  You don’t have to draft pitchers early.  For those looking at my staff and thinking it won’t compete, my last year’s staff when I did this dream team post was:

P:  Jon Lester (5)

P: Dan Haren (8)

P: John Axford (13)

P: Daniel Hudson (12)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (14)

P: Chris Perez (15)

P: Craig Kimbrel (17)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Zimmermann (19)

BENCH:

P:  Ryan Madson (20)

P: Jason Motte (21)

P: Rafael Soriano (22)

You can switch Mike Minor out of there for Beachy too, because once he was in the rotation I switched the two of them on all of my teams.  As I’ve said in the past, I may not know a damn thing, but I can pick a pitching staff.  Seriously, Lester, Haren, Hudson and Chacin were all you needed.  Then you throw in Beachy, Madson, Kimbrel and Axford and you have 12′s in every pitching category.  And that’s not considering you could’ve dropped Soriano and picked up a great waiver wire guy.  This shows you that you need to really load up on hitters early, because, as much as you like that late-round-flyer man in the 18th round to be your corner guy, it’s probably not gonna work out for you.  Make sure you have at least two outfielders, a 2nd baseman, 3rd baseman and 1st baseman in the first ten rounds.  In my team above, I even reached way down for Ethier in the 8th round because I wanted to make sure I had an extra bat.  Also, I find myself grabbing Mauer this year to offset Stubbs and other average drains.  No one’s getting anything from catcher, so may as well get some average there if he comes at the right price.  I am not reaching for him.  If he’s there in the 9th to 10th rounds, great.  In the end, this really is just an exercise.  It’s fun though!  For me.  So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.  Or not.  Decisions, decisions!

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow.  Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales.  Oofa!  For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale.  Zadow!  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

8. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

15. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  At least by my calculation.  Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production.  It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious.  It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Robinson Cano – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Robinson Cano’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Ian Kinsler’s projections.

3. Dustin Pedroia – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Dustin Pedroia’s projections.

4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility).  I call this tier, “I see good value.  Draft one.”  This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races.  Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him!   Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie!  I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.”  Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight.  Nothing ever works out for you, huh?  Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose.  (That Twitter feed is a friend’s.  You follow now, thank you.)  Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either.  Or is it eyether?  Let’s call this whole thing off!  Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter.  I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs!  And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song.  (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes.  My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes.  I am the ding dongiest!)  2012 Projections:  90/35/105/.250/3

5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass.  That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in.  From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more.  His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone.  It points to flukey.  I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290.  It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost.  Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols.  You think someone would’ve talked about that.  2012 Projections:  100/18/70/.290/15

6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole.  Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention.  That’s how I see things playing out.  Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece.  The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership.  Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position.  2012 Projections:  90/20/85/.275/17

7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again.  Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo.  Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.”  Now what if I said I didn’t agree?  He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless.  Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right.  When he did come back, his speed was fine.  Like he was never hurt.  His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball.  His average was off, but so was his luck.  He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is.  BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble.  I think he knows that too.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.280/15

7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues.  To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7 1/2. Michael Cuddyer – Only has 17 games at 2nd base, so he gets a half ranking.  To see Cuddyer’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Weeks.  I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.”  I really don’t like Zobrist.  His stats are just too flaky for my tastes.  One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269.  Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20.  “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!”  That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor.  Thx, btw!  (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx?  Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!)  I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season.  Plus or minus 15 homers and steals.  Yeah, he’s all over the map.  2012 Projections:  75/17/90/.255/17

9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop!  I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice.  I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before.  Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118.  Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games.  Or maybe that’s the median.  Or the mean.  I don’t know.  What I do know is he can’t stay healthy.  He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom.  2012 Projections:  65/18/50/.260/10

10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson.  I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them.  Even if they might hit .240 collectively.”  At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases.  That’s the good news.  The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases.  The so-so news is it might not be much more of either.  The bad news is he hit .236.  The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral.  The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck.  The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.240/19

11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power.  Not this year.  His power completely evaporated.  Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate.  In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense.  Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it.  Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20.  It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle.  What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded.  It’s something!  I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him.  You duping devil!  2012 Projections:  70/18/80/.265/15

12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked.  Or just for right now in the rankings.  Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs.  The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school.  Question:  In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287.  In 2009, he hit .224.  In 2010, he hit .284.  In 2011, he hit .222.  What will he hit in 2012?  You know the answer; Brown’s within reach!  You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong.  You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers.  His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable.  2012 Projections:  80/20/70/.265/14

13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ackley.  I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.”  What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland.  In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early.  As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall.  2012 Projections:  80/14/60/.255/12

14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position?  Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair.  All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips.  They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too.  When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed.  Or not.  Simply a theory.  Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo.  That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh?  Hey, Castillo had some good years.  2012 Projections:  90/3/50/.265/30

15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley.  To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far.  He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases.  Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park.  I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections:  80/12/55/.265/12

16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Beckham.  I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys.  I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.”  Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type.  Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens).  There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year.  Suggest in the comments.  2012 Projections:  55/13/65/.245/15

17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts.  They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!).  But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order.  Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed.  Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me!  2012 Projections:  70/12/80/.270/7

18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is:  Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players?  You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong.  Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen?  Oh, hells no!  Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups.  That’s terrible.  In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop.  By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything.  Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands.  Can’t really weigh chances.  Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale.  2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.260/5

19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on you again.  I’m good at displacing blame.”  Bill James still believes.  He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4.  Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant.  He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season.  I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything.  Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago.  That’s nice, have fun!  2012 Projections:  40/12/50/.275/3

20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay.  Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts.  2012 Projections:  65/5/35/.260/12

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:

Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30.  Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere.  If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato.  2012 Projections:  75/12/60/.275/5

Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn.  Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice.  The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age.  Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April.  If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something.  His K-rate tells me he probably won’t.  2012 Projections:  55/14/65/.230/10

Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.”  When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that.  In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed.  I’ve seen worse.  You feel me?!  If you do, could you stop?  I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value.  Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr.  2012 Projections:  80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)