Fantasy Baseball Advice

With visions of a goat, Bartman and a fat man, the Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The Cubs are so my neighbor that bought a Prius after I bought my Saab. Seriously, Cubbies, why don’t you build a bigger extension onto the side of your house too? Then when I have a Fourth of July party, I can urinate in your tomatoes. Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah, Rich Harden! Harden’s never pitched 200 IP in a season. He came close four years ago with 189.2. Since then Harden’s innings pitched look like this: 128, 46.2, 25.2 and 77 thus far this year. I guess it’s a good sign that he got over that 46.2 hump. If the Cubs plan to play late into October, then he’ll be way over 200. From a fantasy baseball prospective, this all means little. Harden goes to a less-friendly park, but a new league that isn’t familiar with him. That’s a push. His stuff is certifiably nasty, but he still can hurt himself sneezing. You know what Harden is? He’s untradeable. I just wrote this last Friday when I said Harden was a Sell, “Not sure who you’re selling (Harden) to…” The Cubs, I suppose. How do the Cubs make this move? They traded for a guy my 12 year old cousin, Little Stevie, wouldn’t touch and Aunt Caroline used to drink while pregnant with him! I like Gaudin and Gallagher better and I will be bidding a few dollars on them in deep leagues. I even like Murton better. If the Cubs waited two weeks to make this trade, it probably wouldn’t have happened because Harden will probably be on the DL. I’m going to make a prediction, Harden hits the DL and the Cubs end up slotting in Gaudin who turns into a quality pitcher and ends up starting in the playoffs. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ben Sheets/CC Sabathia – Now that the Cubs can match their frail righty (Harden) and tubby flamethrower (Zambrano), will the Cardinals ask the Yanks for Ponson back to team up with Carpenter later this year?

Bobby Jenks – Hater Bell was mystified last week when Karabell told everyone (who pays for ESPN’s Hindsighter™) to bank on Jenks. Jenks has been reporting back pain for over a week. Linebrink (or Thornton or Dotel) will step in and get some saves. This didn’t seem like rocket science to me, but maybe it was for Karabell. Now Jenks heads to the DL. Well, dur.

Miguel Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday. In three years, you’ll be telling someone about how Cabrera wasn’t good for you back in ’08 and they’ll look at his stats and say, “Nuh-uh.” And then you’ll say, “Didn’t the Martians say we couldn’t use the phrase, ‘Nuh-uh? Busted!’”

Mike Pelfrey – Another quality start (7 IP, 3H, no ER).  Granted, it was against the Giants, but still…. Actually, I’m still not buying into Pelfrey.

Mike Aviles – 4-for-7 or as I like to say, “Khalil Greene has only had two 3 hit nights all year.” What I also could’ve said, “Greene is 3-for-22 in July.” Which means, “I hate Tulo for making me play Greene in a deep league.”

Aubrey Huff/Joe Crede – How do these guys have 34 HRs between them (18 for Huff, 16 for Crede)?  Those would’ve been our over/unders for their full season totals.  Maybe ex-Devil Ray Huff is getting some of the good fortune befitting his old team.  Wait…Jorge Cantu is having a hell of a season.  How come Delmon hasn’t gotten the memo?  As for Crede, we give up.  He’s like the younger Mike Lowell.  He can hit .250 or .300.  15 HR or 35 HR.  Play 150 games.  Play 60 games.  Nothing surprises anymore.  Hear that.  You can’t surprise us any more.

Randy Wolf – Another quality Petco start with 7 IP of 1 ER ball.  He’s like a wolf when he pitches at home and like Randy Wolf when he pitches away.

Alexis Rios – I missed the Jays last night because I was watching “I Love Money.” (Bee tee dubya, it’s a new reality show high. They’ve brought back 15 of the “best” reality show contestants who were looking for money while they were supposedly looking for love. Only now they are being open about it being all for money, but it looks like some inadverently fall in love. However, the first time it was obvious they were only interested in money and some fell in love anyway. It’s like a Möbius strip of nonsense. But I digress.) So all I saw of the Jays was this scroll, “Rios scored the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth…” I was like, “Aw, sookie. Triple, Double? Single?” It was a walk.

Jair Jurrjens – 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER, the win and the saving grace for the proud people of Curaçao.

Brian McCann/Geovany Soto – They are having nearly identical seasons. Brianvany SotoCann should totally switch Varsity jackets and see if their dates notice.

Dustin McGowan – I warned people about McGowan’s overuse last season. Yesterday, he exited early for an MRI. Quick math problem: An MRI + Overuse = 15-day DL that gets extended to 30 days.

Chase Headley – 24 Ks/0 walks. He’s really not much better than Bruce, it just seems it because it’s a little less feast or famine (which is, like, soooooo American of you to like Headley more. It’s the middle class.)

Ryan Dempster/Justin Duchscherer – 16 IP, 4 hits allowed and 1 ER. Combined. If you made us GM for a year, we’d turn all the relievers into starters.  Except Gagne.  We’d turn him into a team mascot like the Quazy Quebecois.

Aaron Harang – Fuck you.

A few innings before Felix Hernandez was spiked pretty bad by Ricky from My So Called Life, he hit a grand slam off Johan Santana. (Grey, insert profound comment on how you can be on top of the world one moment and the next moment you’re limping off the field. Also lookup “profound” so you know what it means. –Rudy) The spiking looked like he also hurt his ankle, twisting it. I’d be very surprised if Hernandez avoids the DL. When Felix tried to take a warm up pitch after the incident, he nearly collapsed, then was helped off the field. Tough break for Felix Hernandez and his owners. I’d hope for only a 15-DL stint, I’d expect more. Also, prior to complaining, just think of the Mariners fans who now have no reason to watch any game. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow – Will supposedly be available tomorrow. Yesterday Arthur Rhodes got the save. Don’t run out and sign Rhodes. Tomorrow’s Morrow. I love ya…nah, he isn’t worth quoting Annie.

Jeff Clement – (Another Mariners blurp! This is the biggest day in Seattle news since Stephen slapped Irene.) Stayed in really well against Johan. Not an easy task for a lefty. Almost had a double down the 1st base line, but he was robbed by Carlos Delgado.

J.J. Putz – (4 Mariners items! Can you tell it was a slow day in fantasy baseball?) It was announced that Putz would be back sometime in late July. Prediction, he’ll return to pitch poorly then he’ll complain of soreness and the Mariners, hoping he can come back in ’09, will DL him for the remainder of the year.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Bobby Cox gave Jo-Jo a quick hook in the 3rd inning, perhaps suffering from bad flashbacks of Horacio Ramirez or the Alamo. As I mentioned yesterday about fifth starters, sometimes you gotta take some lumps. Also, Prince Fielder nearly went deep, which, obviously, would’ve made this much worse.

Ben Sheets – Threw his third complete game of the season. It’s as if the Brewers think that he’s predestined to be hurt by a certain date so they want to get everything they can get out of him before it happens. “Ben Sheets has only 6 more weeks to pitch.  Let’s make it count!”

Mike Cameron – I just traded him away, so of course he hit a home run yesterday.

Adam Dunn – Call it a hunch, but never underestimate the will of a player going against the team that traded him or, in this case, a GM who crapped all over him on local radio. Dunn’s about to go country crazy!

Eric Byrnes – Prior to the Red Sox game, the Diamondbacks activated Eric Byrnes from the DL.  This entailed letting him out of his body splint and dog cone that prevented Byrnes from reinjuring himself.  After 30 minutes of stop-and-start sprints and pats on the heads from teammates, he was ready to go.

Dan Haren – Meet the best pitcher (at least so far) for the Diamondbacks.  3 base runners in 7 IP now moves his ERA below 3.00 and his WHIP below 1.00.  We’ll see if Webb regains his throne by overcoming the dead arm and having his typically strong 2nd half or if Haren just has his normal subpar 2nd half.

Emmanuel Burriss – With Omar Vizquel hitting .171, there are reports out of the Bay Area that Burriss might take the starting job.  Mr. and Mrs. Poppadopolous are going to be so proud. Burriss is really fast so maybe he could deliver what Eugenio Velez promised this spring. Or not. You make the call!

Dioner Navarro’s batting in the .370s. Crapoli’s got ten home runs. Olivo’s not missing Miguel Cabrera’s hugs as much I thought he would. JR Towles seems at least a year away. AJ Pierzynski’s doing well — for him. Benjie Molina’s doing well — for Victor Martinez. Victor Martinez is doing well for Nick Punto.  I’ve split my teams between Navarro, Crapoli, Olivo and McCann. So far the team that has struggled most offensively is McCann. “Well, ain’t that the weirderiest of things, Grey?” Not really. And weirderiest isn’t a word. I overspent on McCann costing the rest of my team. Moral of the story. Punt catcher aka trade away any catcher that can fetch you something. So your homework assignment is to trade away Victor Martinez. If someone believes he’s going to turn it around, then turn them around, bend them over and… Well, get a piece for your team that you need. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Rickie Weeks -His current 40 runs, 7 HR, and 9 SB are comparable with Upton and Phillips. His 19 RBI are a casualty of hitting 1st on an NL team. While he hit .235 last year, he’s improved all his fundamentals, his K rate is down from 28% to 21%, but his BABIP is .229, really low for a guy his speed. He should be able to hit at least .260 the rest of the way. Assuming, of course, he stays healthy. His .201 average lets you buy low. (BTW, if those numbers above spun your head a little, just take our word for it. He’s due.)

Jeremy Guthrie – 12 starts, 10 are Quality Starts. “Well, jeez, Grey, that’s a fluke, right?” Last year, he had an ERA of 3.70 in 175 IP. Don’t make me try and guess your password and pickup Guthrie for you.

Prince Fielder – Sure, the only thing up this year is his BBs. (That’s Boca Burgers, not walks.) So what are you worried about? He’s not fat enough to hit home runs? As Richard Simmons might say, “He’s got saddlebags like I have handbags, girlfriend!”

Alex Gordon – I was really counting on him coming out the gate hitting to his ability. Well, that didn’t happen, so if you don’t have him, I’d go out and get him because he had a solid 2nd half last year.

James Shields – They took the “Devil” out of their name. You don’t have to be scared of them anymore.

Chone Figgins – I don’t like all speed guys personally, but I also ask for three plates because I don’t like my condiments mixing. You gonna do everything I do? I know Figgins’s DL’d for his legs. I also know his owners are considering dropping him and would take just about anything for him. If you have an open DL spot, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t make a run at him. Just know you may have to sit on him for three weeks to a month, but it’s a long season. That burst of speed in July may be exactly what you need.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Another sophomore (the “o” is silent, like when you make love to your woman — oofa!) that is struggling more than I would’ve liked. But he came on (your woman while you were playing fantasy baseball– ouch!) last year, and can do it again.

Justin Huber – Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Jorge Campillo – Left his last start with a finger boo-boo, so I was going to leave him off The List, but I’m mentioning him so you keep an eye on him for his next start.

Dan Wheeler – I’ll reenact a comment from late March, “The Nats say Cordero will be back next week, should I bother with Rauch?”

SELL

Joba Chamberlain – Expectations are unrealistically high. When everyone’s zigging, what do you do? Zag, man, zag. Don’t, obviously, trade him for Tony Pena Jr. and a walk-on part on Gossip Girl.

Jay Bruce – If you got him off waivers and your offense is already stacked, you could move him for a very valuable pitcher. Bruce probably won’t bat .500 for the rest of the year. Cust kayin’.

Conor Jackson – Mark Grace, who I think is the best color man currently working, watches Conor and says, “He looks a lot like me.” Gracie’s got a point.

James Loney – Gracie looks at Loney and he says, “Loney wishes he were me.”

Ryan Ludwick – The Queen’s Assassin aka Vincent can hit 25 home runs. He’s at 13. You do the math.

Carlos Gonzalez – I popped a zit into my bathroom mirror and it spelled out, “Good prospect, but little light on the seasoning. Has value in AL-only.”  What other fantasy baseball ‘pert oozes this kind of knowledge?

Adrian Gonzalez – He trends to be a 1st half player, but he doesn’t have enough trends that support me selling him for fifty pence on the pound. Get value, or hold onto him.

Ben Sheets – “Maybe I didn’t say this aloud to all of youse, but the guy can easily” search that phrase on Google and you’ll see why I’m saying to sell. BTW, in that post you find, I’m remarkably brilliant. Prescient to a tee. Mustachioed to a fault. Only the David Murphy and Justino German blurbs seem slightly off and let’s be real, neither of those things really hurt you much. *pats self on back*  Self replies, “Don’t touch me.”

As Sean Connery says, “Shituation: Dire.” Rios has been the pea under your mattress. The splinter in your paw. The tighty-whitey stain that your fourth grade classmates saw when you were changing for gym and have teased you about for the rest of your life (but maybe that was just me). Alexis Rios wasn’t a random stab in the dark when I pegged him for a terrific year in 2008. I wasn’t driving through the desert, high on peyote, when a random Native American said to me, “Rios will be good this year and make sure to hit the slots at Mohegan Sun.” So it’s disappointing when Rios’s slump looks amaranthine (Word of the Day, and I’m not even sure it’s used correctly, so try to use context clues), but there has to be an end in sight, doesn’t there? Yes, I believe there is an end to his struggles. But, for the record, Rudy and I disagree on this. Rudy says he should be sold. Well, whatever. Then I’m going down with the U.S.S. Rios. Rios’s gone through months like this before and he’s come out of it. Sure, his lineup looks like it should be in the AAGPBL, but I’m buying.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Chris Perez – Isringhausen could be done done. To define those italics. Isringhausen is too old, too tired and Chris Perez is too heffin’ good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Izzy hang up the cleats and retire (then return in two years as the Rays closer.) But can Ryan Franklin hold off Chris Perez? About as well as Britney Spears’s kids have of staving off rehab in twelve years. I think Perez could have fifteen saves this year and excellent peripherals. He’s not a starter that is biding his time in middle relief. He was a closer in the minors. A closer with terrific numbers.

Curtis Granderson – As most of you know, I think Curtis blows. But I’m starting to think, no one likes him, so whenever everyone starts zigging, you gotta look to zag. Now don’t zag for the sake of zagging — nobody likes a willy-nilly zagger! — but if you can move Pat Burrell and Joe Saunders or someone of their ilk for Granderson, you gotta consider it.

Corey Hart – Might be too late to buy because of his recent streak. As Alexis Rios and Corey Hart prove, invest in speedy OFs with girl first names!

Joey Devine – In a couple of leagues where I had Casilla, I’ve moved to Waking Joey Devine.

Matt Garza – 3 earned runs in almost 20 innings since coming off the DL. He’s a very capable pitcher with good K numbers in the minors. The only drawback is the Twins gave him to the Rays and the Twins know pitching. Damn you, Twinkies, what do you know that I don’t?!

Bobby Crosby – If he stays healthy, he could give you 20 home runs and a belch-worthy average.

Adam Wainwright – I’m still onboard the love train. He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. Don’t let his last two starts get you down.

Mike Cameron – I see Krispie Young Sr. on waivers in a lot of leagues. In ESPN leagues, he’s only 20% owned. (Of course, I do believe five thousand 3rd graders draft ESPN teams then abandon them, but still.) I’m sporting Cameron on a ten team mixed league and I’m getting what I expect. For a fifth outfielder, you can do worse. On the team I have him, I’m balancing his shizzy average with Youk.

Vladimir Guerrero – So he’s as limber as Ron Kovic, this isn’t something new.

Jose Contreras – Okay, so he remembers when they called movies “talkies” — whatever, he’s solid when healthy and he’s been healthy.

Johnny Damon/Robinson Cano – I’ve beat these horses before, but I still believe.

SELL

Ben Sheets – I’ve said it before. Ben Sheets can win the Cy Young. Know what else? Hillary can win the nomination. Andy Milonakis can be funny. I can date Mila Kunis without incurring criminal charges. Now will is an entirely different matter. Will Hillary win the nomination? I suppose if whatever state Obama is in collapses into the core of the earth. Will fatty ever be funny? I suppose if he steals better jokes. Will I date Kunis? If I can get rid of Culkin, you better believe it. So will Sheets win the Cy Young? He hasn’t made it to 30 starts since ’04. That year he had 264 Ks and 32 walks. Go ahead look at those numbers again. Yeah, they’re insane. That was coupled with a 2.70 ERA. He has pinpoint control and filthy stuff. Yeah, I’m a fan. Unfortunately, he could get injured in a pillow fight with your niece. So as much as I like him, I’m passing.

Edinson Volquez – In the comments recently someone asked about Edinson. Here’s what I said, “You see what’s happening with Cueto right now? Yeah, Volquez will be seeing him in the ‘kinda not startable’ category soon. Edinson’s a great pitcher but very, very rarely does a pitcher arrive in the majors and never hit a correction period. Could he avoid it? I suppose, but you don’t bet on the least likely thing to happen. You’re playing with house money right now and you need to cash out and move on.” Admit it, I take your breath away like Dr. Kevorkian.

Adrian Gonzalez – Don’t fall in love with his first half numbers. Let’s put it this way, he says to Teixeira, “You complete me.” Now don’t sell him for Luis Hernandez and a bottle of Valtrex and say, “Look, Grey, I did good!”

Jon Garland – Don’t make the same mistake The Town That Bobby Grich Built Angels made. He’s not a great pitcher.

Jon Lester/Doug Davis – As Hank said in the comments the other day, “Damn, cancer really is the new AIDS. Free plane tickets, no-hitters, and sympathy rotation spots. ‘What kind of cancer do you have? The All-Over kind.’” Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman writes in his journal, “Mono is not good enough!”

Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuuuuk is not a 2nd half hitter.

Joe Saunders – Rudy said this the other day in the comments, “Saunders is projected as a low K pitcher with around 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.6 K/9 IP and 1.6 K/BB ratios are AWFUL. The only real change from his performance last year is that he’s getting lucky with balls that are in play – it’s .240 instead of an expected .300.” And that’s me quoting Rudy!

Billy Butler – I’m gonna pull a Willie Randolph and say it’s racist if people still have Butler on their team. If he were black or Isiah Thomas or Herm Edwards, he would not be on your team. And that’s egregious! So let’s all get along and drop Butler. Now doesn’t that feel good?

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ’07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180