Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day we looked at the top free agent hitters in 2008 and now we go over some of the top free agent pitchers for 2008. Similarly to the other day, these are not all of the free agent pitchers. So there’s no reason to write in about how we forgot Josh Fogg. He was remembered then forgotten; there’s a difference. These free agent pitchers could potentially see their fantasy value take a hit or surge with a team move.  A list of all the free agents is here. Anyway, here’s some top free agents for 2008, the pitchers’ edition:

CC Sabathia - Sabathia almost didn’t make this list. Not because he’s not a free agent. He is, a top one at that. I just don’t see his value changing a whole lot with a new team. If he goes to the Yankees, he’ll be facing tougher hitters than the NL Central — pho sho! He’ll still be dominant and he’ll still be coming off a season when he was overworked.

Ben Sheets - Here’s another guy that I don’t think gets that affected by free agency as long as he stays healthy– Just as I was typing that, a butterfly in the Republic of Djibouti flapped its wings and Ben Sheets pulled an abdominal muscle.

Brian Fuentes - Fuentes needs to land with a team that needs a closer for him to retain his value. Otherwise, his value will be this.

Francisco Rodriguez - Wherever he lands, he’ll get at least 70 saves next year. (<–sarcasm) He might benefit a bit by the move to the NL (since he’s almost definitely going to the Mets), but he’s still never going to see a saves season like he just did.

Oliver Perez - All indications are that Perez will vacate Queens. I could see Perez hurt by a move. A new team will have to figure out what makes Oliver Perez work then try to duplicate it from start to start. Good. Luck.

A.J. Burnett - The number one crazy hot chick in baseball. One day, a shutout and 12 Ks. Next day, pretending to be pregnant so you won’t go out with the fellas. Burnett’s a fantasy ulcer waiting to happen.

On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay - When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia - Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ‘07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum - Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee - You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana - Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels - Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb - Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ‘08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana - Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren - Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster - What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden - “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco - In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina - 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe - In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt - Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets - Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez - I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields - The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 - 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley - See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka - In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154

Did Longoria outproduce Alex Gordon? Yeppers. Ryan Braun? Nopers. Somewhere in the middle’s not a bad place to be, ask Malcolm and Monie Love. Three home runs last night gave Longoria 25 on the year in only 111 games. What’s really nice to see is he hit these three after sustaining a broken wrist. He should be safe for the last week-plus of the season, but I have to think the Rays are going to rest him a bit during next week’s games because the franchise’s first playoff series means a bit more. So keep that in mind going forward. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard - Has a torn labrum and it could mean… Well, it could mean nothing for Bedard for a while, if ever again. The Mariners lost Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three prospects for Nadir Bupkus. “Bad trades are a part of baseball; I mean who can forget Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson for gosh sakes.”

Shaun Marcum - Marcum down for done.

Cameron Maybin - 4-for-4 yesterday. Right now, I’m not that excited for this year, but he might get a legit shot next year.

Ben Sheets - In a followup to his sore arm, the GM said today, “He’s got pain, and he sometimes can pitch with it, and he sometimes can’t.” Ringing endorsement! I went over why dropping Sheets was probably the way to go.

Troy Percival - Pitched for the first time in a week, throwing a scoreless eighth, only to watch Wheeler blow the save. Percival will now be back in the closer’s role as long as he stays healthy.

Chris Perez - More than likely not in the closer’s role anymore as he tried to give away last night’s game. Jason Motte figures to see any saves in the last week plus.

Rickie Weeks - First at-bat in 5 days. Every time Ned Yost started Weeks you know Sveum was cringing, muttering that if he were manager he would never start Weeks.

Zach Greinke - 8 IP, 2 hits. I think at this point I’ve been Greinke’d.

Justin Duchscherer - From the files of, “Dur.” His bullpen session was cut short because of pain. Surprise, surprise. He’s done for the year.

Tim Lincecum - Bit of a scary moment for Lincecum in yesterday’s game. The 118 pitches? Nah, he usually does that by the seventh. The scary moment came in the second when Lincecum tried to bunt a Randy Johnson fastball and it smashed his fingers into the bat. He came back with taped fingers and continued on like nothing happened. Later on, Lincecum won a between-innings chili cook-off, taught some youngsters how to use radiometric dating to disapprove The DaVinci Code and then saved Dunn out in the kiddie pool. Wear floaties, big man!

You know how you never really see yourself for who you are? Right, well, I wonder if Sheets doesn’t see himself as injury-prone. Instead, Sheets sees everyone else and thinks they’re Magoo’ing their way through their life. He sits in the locker room and he’s like, “Wow, Fielder I can’t believe you didn’t just twist your ankle right there!” And Fielder looks at him confused, “Ben, I was just tying CC’s shoelaces for him.” (Cause Prince and CC obviously have to tie each other’s shoelaces.) Also, I wonder if Sheets’s family is constantly trying to get him out of harm’s way. His wife, “Let Ben Jr. go get you some more flapjacks from the buffet. Those heatlamps look hot.” Either way, Sheets is injured. A few starts ago he complained of groin tightness. That was obviously bull–Sheets now is complaining of elbow pain. I’d make plans to be without Sheets and drop him if you need the roster room. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adam LaRoche/David Ortiz/Hunter Pence - Each with 2 HRs. In my barbecue grill’s vernacular, I’d say these players are HOO or Hot Off Off. I’m sure a lot of you wouldn’t mind a HOW or a WHO or even a WOW.

Edwin Encarnacion - Has pain in his wrist. Never a good place for a hitter to have pain. Also, now is the time of the year when people mysteriously sit out for a week even though they are only day-to-day. Yes, BJ Upton, I’m talking to you.

Hanley Ramirez - 2 HRs. Rejoice! Unfortunately, he came out of the game with shoulder soreness. Dejoice! Though he says he shouldn’t miss more than a game at most. Re-rejoice!

Brad Ziegler - Gave up his first major league home run, but his season ERA is only 0.82, which is actually bested by his teammate, Devine at 0.65. Incredible years these two are having. I think Devine’s going to be closing next year and Ziegler will be setting him up, but stay tuned.

Ty Wigginton - Finally was able to take some weight off his teammates and chip in an 0-for-4.

Cliff Lee - Didn’t have his best stuff, but before this bizarro season that would’ve meant he was rocked for ten runs. Instead he got hit around a little, but it wasn’t that awful and just missed recording his 23rd win.

Chone Figgins - Elbow pain from being hit by a pitch isn’t going away. He has no idea why. I have an idea; he weighs a buck-thirty soaking wet and he has skinny, granny bones. I’d expect the Angels to rest him right up until the playoffs.

Tony Peña - As of right now, Peña and Qualls are probably sharing closing duties. That’s if Qualls isn’t hiding an injury, which he might be because he should have been out there for the save last night. Stuck an nena on his en and called it macaroni…

Jeff Francis - Done for the year. Back date this to April.

Michael Young - Left the game yesterday because of pain in his fractured finger. He’s been trying to play through it to get to 200 hits. Don’t worry, Young, when it’s time, I’m sure the Hall of Fame committee will ignore your accomplishments either way.

Aaron Harang - Complete game shutout. Lots of offense all around baseball yesterday and Harang comes out smelling like roses. You say tomato, Harang says tomahto… You say elevator, Harang says lift…

Carlos Gomez - HR yesterday and now has 13 RBIs in the last 7 days. Watch CarGo go.

Brandon Knight - 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks. Gets out of KITT, throws a decent couple of innings, but is benefited by facing the Nots, then gets back in KITT and drives off.

Ryan Shealy - Of course he hit a home run. Was there any doubt he would hit one today?

Freddy Garcia - Yes, he looked fine tonight. Yes, he used to be decent. No, I don’t want any part of him. But he goes against the Royals next. Fine, in some deep leagues you can look.

Travis Hafner - HR yesterday. The Comatose Indians Fan can’t wait to see who the Indians are matching up with in the playoffs. Maybe the Tigers! Meanwhile, in Michigan, a young man wakes from a six month coma. He turns on Sportscenter to see the Tigers scored 17 runs with most of the runs coming from the bottom of the order. “They are just like the ‘27 Yanks!” Comatose Tigers Fan can’t wait to see his team beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

Yesterday, Adrian Beltre and Stephen Drew both hit for the cycle. Hadn’t happened on the same day for two players since 1920 when George Burns (Yes, that George Burns) and Bobby Veach did it. But back then there were five bases, everyone wore aviator goggles and most played because they thought it would help them avoid scurvy. For fantasy baseball purposes, this means very little. In the very deep third base pool, Adrian Beltre’s wearing water wings and sitting on the diving board while everyone else wonders what his problem is and why he won’t just go in. He’s always been a 2nd half hitter and he hit two home runs on Sunday, so maybe this is a sign that he’s going to be hot for the final month. Meanwhile, fantasy owners for two years have been trying to solve the Stephen Drew mystery. Will he be good or what? Since the All-Star break, he’s hit .320 but he’s lacked power. If he can just put together solid average and power, he could be a huge breakout in ‘09. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adam Jones - HR yesterday in his first game back and celebrated with a Phillie Blunt and a cup of Golden Seal Tea.

Justin Verlander - 1.2 IP, 5 ER. I was about to smack my pug, Arfer Woofruff, with a newspaper, but that was actually Verlander who defecated in my living room.

Randy Johnson - 8 Ks in less than four innings, but was hit for 5 runs. Blame the four HRs. I’m holding him for his next game against the Dodgers. Might bail after that. Recognize!

Johan Santana - If he pitched into the extra innings, the Mets would find a way to win the inning after he came out.

Shin-Soo Choo - 3-for-4 yesterday and in the last week he’s hit 3 HRs and a .450. Might stay hot for another week or two, which could make all the difference in H2H playoffs.

Jason Schmidt - Shut down for rest of season. Some of you might be wondering if this is news from April and I just forgot to post it. You wouldn’t be entirely wrong.

Ryan Zimmerman - HR yesterday. I give Zimmerman a lot of crap, but it’s only fair to point out his successes too. So if he had any success, I would point it out.

Ben Sheets - Left his start after the top of the fifth with a tight groin. After the game Sheets said. “I think it’s gonna be fine. I really think I’ll be OK. I’ll just pay a little more attention to it, hopefully move forward.” Is it me or does he sound like Rainman right before he starts banging his head with his hand?

Joba Chamberlain - Set to return to the bullpen on Tuesday. He’s not going to start until the end of September. I think if the Yankees are out of it, Joba won’t start at all, which is to say he’s not starting again this year.

Cliff Lee - Goes to 20-2 and the magical season for Cliff Lee and Comatose Indians Fan continues. Next stop for Cliff Lee is Cy Young. Next stop for Comatose Indians Fan is a haircut.

Chris Young - 5 IP, 4 ER. This may as well be spring training for him, but worth rostering for his home games.

Dallas McPherson - Wasn’t mentioned in the September call ups post, but would’ve been if I mentioned him. How’s dat logic?  He’s worth a pickup in NL-Only keeper leagues just in case he gets some playing time.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Going for an MRI with elbow soreness. Fun fact of the day, I can’t go for an MRI because I have a metal plate in my head. Yes, I hold notes to my head with magnets.

Paul Byrd - 7 IP, 4 ER and a win. That’s so Byrd. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if Marlon was traded to the Sox so their jerseys could say, Pa. Byrd and Ma. Byrd?)