Fantasy Baseball Advice

Minnesota Twins 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009):
2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams

The Run Down

The Twins traded one of the better young defensive center fielders in Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy.  For  analysis from a Twins fan’s perspective, check out what Eric from The Blog that Boredom Built had to say. On a different note, Minnesota still has to figure out what it wants to do with third base, the middle or top of their rotation, second base, and how to reshuffle their bullpen – in that order. As a Minnesota native, I am able to read the local sports writers. Aside from Joe Christiansen and LaVelle E. Neal III, the writers are mentioning how the Twins have Danny Valencia as the heir apparent at third base – a 24 year old minor league player who just reached Triple-A this past summer and hasn’t played a lick in the majors. Never mind the fact that Valencia isn’t a stud prospect, either. Additionally, the Twins don’t have any internal options to fill out the rotation. Kevin Slowey is returning from a wrist injury and they just offered arbitration to Carl Pavano. However, if there is an injury again next year, the unexpected pitching the Twins got from Brian Duensing shouldn’t be counted upon.  The Twins and Bill Smith have a lot to work this winter, like signing Mauer to a contract that rivals Singapore’s GDP.

Graduated Prospects
#4 – (RP) Jose Mijares; #11 – (SP) Jeff Manship; #16 – (SP) Brian Duensing; (RP) Bobby Keppel;

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers – Alex Burnett, Steve Hirschfeld, (#27)Mike McCardell, Spencer Steedley
Hitters – Christ Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 –Ben Revere | CF | 21 | A+ | .311/.372/.369 | 466 AB | 13 2B | 2 HR | .058 ISO | 45/17 SB/CS | 34:40 K:BB | .333 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 28.5 FB%
Scouting the Unknown broke him down well in July. The power, or gap power, never materialized after a significantly better 2008 slash line of .379/.433/.497. He still stole 45 bases after he stole 44 in 2008. His average isn’t a mirage; he should be able to sustain it. Revere is considered the fastest baserunner and best hitter for average in the Twins farm system. He’ll start 2010 in Double-A and will probably end the year with a September call-up, especially if the Twins falter down the stretch.

#5 – Danny Valencia | 3B | 24 | AA/AAA | .285/.337/.466 | 487 AB | 38 2B | 14 HR | .181 ISO | 77:39 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.1 FB%
Maybe the second coming of Ron Coomer. Only thing, Coomer didn’t produce at the majors until his late twenties. Honestly, he’ll be much better than Coomer, probably something more like a poor man’s Robin Ventura (a .267/.362/.444 career hitter in the majors) without the amazing defense. If, and that’s a big if, Valencia gets the starting gig out of spring training, his big league numbers will look, at best, what Bill James has predicted (12 HRs, .276 average in 438 ABs). He does have average to above-average defense with a strong arm. Look for him to emerge from the minor leagues around June and contribute a fantasy line of 50/10/60/.270 in 425 AB.

#28 – David Winfree | RF | 23 | AAA | .273/.317/.460 | 422 AB | 31 2B | 14 HR | .187 ISO | 88:28 K:BB | .316 BABIP | 38.9 GB% | 19.2 LD% | 41.9 FB%
He could be a sneaky sleeper in 2010 if there are any injuries in the Twins outfield. Typically he hits mid to upper teens in homers. Striking out has been a forte of his in the past, and was again this year. However, he plays good defense in right field and has a strong arm to boot. He’ll never hit for high average, but a little Matt Joyce-like production could be in his future.

Pitchers
#20 – Deolis Guerra | SP (RH) | 20 | A+/AA | 6.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 4.89 ERA (FIP ~3.75) | 1.34 WHIP | .320 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 34.6 FB%
The most promising player acquired in the now infamous Johan Santana trade. His change-up is a plus pitch. However, his 2008 season was pretty much a waste as he wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2007 with the Mets. This year he was back to his old self. He threw 62 2/3 innings at Double-A and his total was in line with the Verducci rule. I would imagine he’d make it to Triple-A in 2010 since his numbers improved from High-A to Double-A. Also, note that his FIP at Double-A was 3.52 compared to his ERA which sat at 5.17. Another plus, he did an acceptable job keeping the ball on the ground (45.7 GB%).

#19 – David Bromberg | SP (RH) | 21 | A+ | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA (3.28 FIP) | 1.23 WHIP | .295 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 37.3 FB %
He has an 88 to 92 MPH fastball that can reach 95 MPH, a shape curve and a solid change-up. He won’t be near the majors next year. He has pitched over 150 inning two years in a row, and has the makings to be a solid innings eater.

Honorable Mentions
#1 – Aaron Hicks | CF | 20 | A | .251/.353/.382 | 251 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | .131 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 55:40 K:BB | .307 BABIP | 45.3 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 33.8 FB%
The first pick in the 2008 draft for the Twins had a much better 2008 season than 2009. This year was pretty abysmal. The strikeout to walk ratio is nice, as is the line-drive rate. However, he may have to start in Single-A again next year, slowing down the extremely fast pace that was assumed he was going to make.

#14 – Chris Parmelee | 1B | 21 | A+ | .258/.359/.441 | 27 2B | 16 HR | .183 ISO | 109:65 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 35.8 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 48.3 FB%
I swear I’ve been hearing about this guy for years. Actually I have! He was drafted in 2006 and ever since then he has been the heir apparent for Morneau. Alas, this was his first year above Single-A. He continuously has a low average with mid-teen home runs.

#18 – Rene Tosoni | OF | 22 | AA | .271/.360/.454 | 425 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .183 ISO | 8/8 SB/CS | 98:45 K:BB | .321 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 39.8 FB%
He earned the MVP award in the Futures Game (Minor League All-Star game) this year. Baseball America says that he has a solid, yet short, swing that projects to hit for better average than he has so far in his career. His defense is above-average and has a good arm. Seems like a good fourth outfielder.

Alex Burnett | RP (RH) | 21 | A+/AA | 9 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 78 IP | 1.85 ERA | .974 WHIP | .255 BABIP | 41.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 41.7 FB%
He would have been in the “Players of Interests” section if he wasn’t a reliever. He pitched the majority of his innings (55) at Double-A. The extremely low batting average on balls in play definitely improved his “old-timer’s” stat line.

#9 – Carlos Gutierrez | SP (RH) | 22 | AA | 5.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 52 1/3 IP | 6.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) | 1.64 WHIP | .326 BABIP
2009 second pick in first round failed to live up to his hype. He still has a lot of talent and has the “best fastball in the Twins minor league farm” according to the Baseball America.

This week has been rather chaotic, or maybe that is just my brain failing on me.  Either way, Grey stole this week’s pitcher for StU – Carlos Carrasco – on Monday. I’m not bitter, just was hoping to beat him to the punch.  But he covered most of what is needed to be covered. I would most definitely pick him up and see what kind of results he has on Thursday.  On this past Sunday, while rummaging through a sports book rack at Barnes and Noble, I found Baseball America 2009 Prospect Handbook and most definitely recommend reading this mighty fine book, that is, of course, if you are willing to shell out $30.   It’s worth it, promise!

Something I have noticed about my writing recently (aka this past week) has been that I write strictly from a fantasy player’s perspective. Upon reading the scouting reports from Baseball America, I realize sometimes the numbers only tell part of the story. Needless to say, remember this, as some of my analysis negates some personal theories of some teams. Hope you enjoy this week’s StU!

Mat Latos | SP | San Diego Padres | DOB – 12/9/87 | 6-5 | 210 lbs | Bats/throws Right | SD’s #2 Prospect according to Baseball America

Cube Ratings: Control (79) | K-rating (100) | Efficiency (88)

Mat Latos is the best pitching prospect in the Padres minors, but he wasn’t drafted until the 11th round in 2006 because of character and contract issues. Well, the character issues are still there. He is a extremely competitive player on days he pitches, but tends to become a team hindrance on days he doesn’t – this was from Baseball America’s conversations with scouts, managers and team reps. This may have changed in recent months, aka this year, but I didn’t find anything in articles that would have changed that. For strictly fantasy purposes, character issues are only a problem if the team won’t let him pitch, and I doubt that will happen.

He throws a 94 to 95 mph fastball that at times touches 97 to 98 mph. On the 20 to 80 scale, it rates as a 70 (or a plus pitch). Well, that seems pretty obvious. To compliment that power pitch, he throws a late breaking, hard slider, and a change-up that is a work in progress. The slider has been developed pretty well, but that change-up will need to continue to improve to see success at the next several levels. So far this year, he has pitched extraordinarily well at A and AA. The success at A ball has been helped by a remarkably low BABIP (.168), but it was enough to get him promoted to AA and the BABIP (.281) has remained low. He has above average command of his fastball and successfully throws the slider.

From a numbers standpoint, his control has been getting better with each passing year (BB/9 – 3.36, 2.1, 1.7 [2007-present]), but his k-rate is decreasing (11.8, 11.1, 9.2 [2007-present]). Hmm, but he is pitching better and better as indicated by a low twos FIP in all three years, and an improving WHIP (1.41, 1.11, .77 [07-present]. The only knock on him right now, is that he has only pitched 56 1/3 and 56 innings the last two years, and is now at 63 1/3 innings this year. According to Tom Verducci’s pitching rule, he should only pitch, oh about two to three more starts. Due to the fact that he was drafted out of high school, this will inhibit the time of his MLB debut because of the innings limit (for another example of innings playing a part on development look here at one of my old articles about Jonathan Sanchez). However, some scouts have said that he could be used in a late inning bullpen role, but that doesn’t make sense unless the Padres are contending, and well, that isn’t the case this year (for now).

The future upside is a middle of the rotation spot, or a late inning bullpen role. I would love to see him this year, but it would be highly unlikely. His control is extremely nice, and the k-rate should stay near the eight to nine levels through AAA. Expect large things from Latos in 2010, and maybe a September call up this year, but that is highly unlikely.

Ben Revere | OF | Minnesota Twins | DOB – 5/3/88 | 5-9 | 166 lbs | Bats/throws Left/Right | MN’s #2 Prospect according to Baseball America

Cube Ratings: Power (25) | Speed (98) | Contact (94) | Patience (24)

There are several things to know about Mr. Revere. First, he isn’t a slap hitter as he has some gap to gap power (think Jacoby Ellsbury). Second, he doesn’t strike out much, or walk near enough (BB% – 6.4, 7.4, 8.8 | K% 10.5, 9.1, 8.5 [07 – present]), though these numbers are getting way better. Third, his main asset is his speed. Fourth, he is a prototypical leadoff hitter. Lastly, his defense is great, his range is far, but his arm rivals Juan Pierre. Aaron Gleeman (the senior writer for baseball at Rotoworld, and fellow Twins fan/addict) says his hitting is Juan Pierre-esque (and for the older gentlemen – Lance Johnson), and his upside is Kenny Lofton or Johnny Damon. Those aren’t bad names to be compared to, unless Juan Pierre production doesn’t entice you (as a real team it should be nice, as a fantasy player, not quite as much).

Revere was drafted out of high school by the Twins in 2007, and they were highly criticized by picking him “too early,” and for trying to save money. Well, Revere responded by hitting .325/.388/.461 with 21 SB in 2007 at rookie ball (in 191 AB). Then in 2008 he hit .379/.433/.497 with 44 SB at A ball (in 340 AB). His ISO in 2008 was .118, which was league average, (other than adding a reference point, it shows little). The slugging percentage is high because he hit 10 triples in both ‘07 and ‘08 (only one home run combined in those two years).

This year he is hitting a more modest .319/.388/.381 with 28 SB (in 270 AB) at A+ ball, but with two home runs already. The added patience at the plate is nice, as is the decreasing k-rate. The only negative I could find is that he has been caught stealing 12 times this year while he was caught only 13 times all year last year when he stole 44 bases. His BABIP has been extraordinarily high too with .363, .416, and .343 (‘07 – present respectably), and would imagine that those numbers will decrease as will his average. There is still time this year for his slugging percentage to be raised to a more respectable number, but he will never hit many home runs, but that is not his forte.

Don’t expect to see Revere anytime soon though. He is in the Twins farm system and they are extremely patient with high school players that they draft. I envision see a promotion to AA later this year, but he will not sniff the majors until late 2010.