Fantasy Baseball Advice

St. Louis Cardinals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (8) | 2008 (13) | 2007 (23) | 2006 (21) | 2005 (30) | 2004 (28)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [91 – 71] NL Central
AAA: [77 – 67] Pacific Coast League
AA: [71 – 69] Texas League
A+: [61 – 77] Florida State League
A: [61 – 78] Midwest League
A(ss): [37 – 39] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [37 – 30] Appalachian League
R: [25 – 31] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
The Cardinals 2010 ranking isn’t looking pretty (#29) and here is why. Colby Rasmus graduated and they traded their numbers 2,3,4,6,28, and 29 ranked prospects this year, not to mention releasing their number 23 ranked prospect (who was picked up off the waivers by Pittsburgh). Here is the breakdown of what happened:

• Received Matt Holliday (OAK) for (#2 3B) Brett Wallace, (#6 RHP) Clayton Mortensen, (#28 OF) Shane Peterson and $1.5 Million
• Received Mark DeRosa (CLE) for (#3 RHP)Chris Perez and a PTBNL (#4 RHP Jess Todd)
• Received Julio Lugo (BOS) for Chris Duncan and cash
• Received Khalil Greene (SD) for (#29 RHP) Luke Gregerson
• Released (#23 RHP) Tyler Herron

Good thing they resigned Holliday otherwise that would have been one of the largest rental seasons for an entire organization since they lost DeRosa and Greene. I won’t rate the trades, but I will say they lost a gratuitous amount of talent. Grey just mentioned David Freese and what kind of value he may possess, thus I will withhold my comments. Furthermore, the fifth rotation spot is worth watching as the winner may hold more value for you playing in deeper leagues (Jaime Garcia versus Ben Jukich versus P.J. Walters versus Kyle McClellan). Personally, I like Garcia and Jukich. With Spring Training underway, hopefully we (Razzball readers) will start to see some of these players mentioned vying for a 25 man roster spot. Without any further ado, the Cardinals Minor League Review:

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – Gary Daley; Scott Gorgen; Mike Parisi; Adam Reifer
Hitters – (C) Bryan Anderson; (2B) Daniel Descalso; (OF) Tyler Henley; (OF) Daryl Jones

Graduating Prospects
#1 (OF) Colby Rasmus; #8 (RHP) Jason Motte; #14 (RHP) Mitchell Boggs

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#26 Allen Craig | 1B-LF-3B | AAA | 24 | .322/.374/.547 | 472 AB | 53 XBH | 26 HR | .225 ISO | 95:37 K:BB | .358 BABIP | 44.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 36.6 FB%
With Pujols clogging first base for the rest of his career (Yes, I am that sure he’ll remain a Card for life.), Craig isn’t going to get many options to play first base beyond the Pacific Coast League. All the scouting reports mentioned that he’ll probably stay in left field but first base is his best defensive position. His defense is average in the outfield where his below average speed and arm strength are noticeable. However, if Holliday wasn’t resigned, Craig may have been given multiple opportunities to start in the majors this year. Offensively, Craig has the skills to hit between .280 to .300 at the major league level with 20 to 25 homers. His poor strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t necessarily tell how well he controls the zone, yet, this is the culprit for predicting a lower average at the major league level – plus the inflated stat line from the PCL and his high batting average on balls in play (.358). Ranked as the seventh best prospect in the Cards system for 2010, Craig could provide some midseason help off the bench if he continues to play well to start the season. He could also be used as trade bait as the season progresses. He’ll make his major league debut sometime in this season. Just remember, it’s his bat that is going to get him to the majors to stay.

#16 Tyler Greene | SS | AAA | 25 | .291/.369/.482 | 340 AB | 30 XBH | 15 HR | .171 ISO | 31/3 SB/CS | 86:38 K:BB | .354 BABIP | 44.4 GB%| 21.8 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An injury to his kneecap in 2007 derailed much of his confidence and speed as this was the most steals since 2006 when he was at Single-A and High-A. This was easily his best year as a pro and it happened to come while playing in the PCL. I am hesitant to claim he is going to be much more than a utility fielder (supported by the scouting reports). He is vying for that role this spring. His greatest assets is his speed and multiple positions he is able to play. His strike zone judgment is Delmon Young-like and defense is spotty at short. If given a full time gig, you’d be looking at a .260 hitter at best with 30 to 35 steals. Great for fantasy purposes as he looks like Everth Cabrera but he is four years Cabrera’s senior. With the recent signing of Felipe Lopez, look for Greene to be back at Triple-A.

Pitchers
#13 Jaime Garcia | LHP | R/A+/AAA | 23 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 37 2/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 3.69 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | 6 H/9 | .212 BABIP | 62.4 GB% | 6.4 LD% | 24 FB%
Following two straight seasons (2007 and 2008) of ending with elbow problems, Garcia went under the knife of Dr. Freeze in 2008 and returned for the end of the 2009. Since his 2009 season is such a small sample, here is his career line:

8.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 402 IP | 3.49 ERA | 3.71 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .308 BABIP | 58.7 GB% | 14. LD% | 23.4 FB%

Note the groundball ratio (slightly over two-to-one) and the good strikeout rates. He has an 88 to 92 mph fastball with a devastating curve and a new cutter he developed while rehabbing. The favorite to win the fifth rotation sport, Garcia still has to prove he is durable enough to pitch a full season. Further, his control is inconsistent. Don’t be surprised to see the Cards place him at Triple-A for a couple of months and call him up at the end of May. Think of J.A. Happ (but a groundball pitcher instead) and Randy Wells (without the control) for his expectations for 2010. While everyone is watching Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Brain Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Madison Bumgarner, keep an eye on Jaime Garcia. With Dave Duncan as his coach and the revival of Joel Pinero’s career via extreme groundball splits, Garcia could provide excellent value in 2010.

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Jukich had a great year, but with better defense (as noted by Bryan Smith from FanGraphs) and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%) he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is non-existent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc). I accidentally placed him in the Cincinnati Reds Minor League Review, however, with the Cardinals he is vying for the fifth rotation spot with Jaime Garcia and P.J. Walters. Read Garcia’s ending sentences about Dave Duncan for what Jukich could provide in 2010.

#17 P.J. Walters | RHP | AAA | 24 | 8.4 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 121 IP | 4.54 ERA | 3.58 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 9.5 H/9 | .348 BABIP | 49 GB% | 18 LD% | 27.9 FB%
Walters is a finesse pitcher with a deceptive changeup and an 88 to 91 mph fastball. He saw 16 innings of the major league last year too. He isn’t sexy and doesn’t have the skills to overpower hitters at the major league level. His control and durability are better than Garcia’s. However, his upside is nowhere near Garcia’s. Walters had a high batting average on balls in play (.348), which inflated some of his peripherals (ERA and WHIP). With a more normal BABIP, Walter’s could provide some nice fifth starter value for the Cards. His upside is Aaron Cook. Nothing stellar, but serviceable.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Tyler Henley | RF | AA | 24 | .303/.367/.482 | 423 AB | 47 XBH | 13 HR | .179 ISO | 9/4 SB/CS | 64:40 K:BB (15.1 K% | 8.5 BB%) | .312 BABIP
Invited to spring training and ranked number 18 in the current Baseball America Handbook (non-roster invite), I am not sure why he doesn’t have extended stats at Minor League Splits but he doesn’t. Oh well. Henley projects as a fourth outfielder with good contact skills and strike zone judgment, solid but not great defense and gap power. The Cards have other high ceiling outfield prospects in their system and Henley happens to be the lowest ceiling but most predictable. If there are several injuries to the outfield to the major league club, Henley may be the one called upon to cover the open spot.

#25 Steven Hill | C-1B | AA | 24 | .282/.333/.470 | 464 AB | 47 XBH | 19 HR | .168 ISO | 106:36 K:BB | .326 BABIP | 41.9 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.3 FB%
Defensively, he is a liability and his future as a catcher seems to be closing. Swing for the fences only works for so long in the minors before the pitchers catch on. The reason I mention him is that his defense could improve and natural power is difficult to teach. Let’s watch how the 2010 season unfolds for him. If things go well, he could be a sleeper candidate in 2011.

Pitchers
Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | A+/AA | 20 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 75 IP | 2.28 ERA | 3.49 FIP | .92 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | 5.3 H/9 | .234 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 30.2 FB%
He was aided by an extremely low BABIP (.234) and an even lower one at High-A (.185). Mainly a closer or late inning setup man, Sanchez could provide a mid season boost to a rather uninteresting bullpen for the Cards. He has a 94 to 97 mph fastball and a good slider. Touted as the next closer (over Motte) for the Cardinals because he is actually able to control his pitches. He has the makings of a great closer or reliever with ability to blow his pitches past the batters and keep the ball on the ground (51.3 GB%). For those MR. B’s out there, Sanchez may help sooner rather than later. Might be a midseason call up as he needs to work on his game a little more.

#15 Lance Lynn | RHP | AA | 22 | 7 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 3.79 FIP | 1.33 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .307 BABIP | 47.9 FB% | 16.6 LD% | 31.1 FB%
Possesses an 89 to 92 mph sinking fastball and a solid slider, curveball, and changeup. An inning eater type pitcher, Lynn looks poised for a good season in 2010. If that happens, 2011 may be when he makes his MLB debut.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (14) | 2008 () | 2007 () | 2006 () | 2005 () | 2004 ()

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [78 – 84] NL Central
AAA: [84 – 58] International League
AA: [65 – 74] Southern League
A+: [54 – 83] Florida League
A: [59 – 80] Midwest League
R: [28 – 27] Gulf League
R: [24 – 52] Pioneer League

The Run Down
With Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto and the possibility of Homer Bailey pitching adequately, the Cincinnati Reds have a nice young nucleus. Pitching still seems to be a problem that has plagued them for the past few years. The Josh Hamilton-Volquez straight-up trade was directly related to that problem. Then two weeks ago, the Reds signed Aroldis Chapman to rather large contract for an unproved 21 year old flame thrower. This move bolsters their pitching depth as did their top picks in the 2009 draft (Mike Leake and Bradley Boxberger). Looking through all the Reds minor league players, some of their top prospects played well, but aren’t going to be as fantasy relevant as some of the lesser prospects may be. Many of the Reds position spots are either taken by greater players (Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Rolen) or youngsters that should be given a chance in 2010 (Drew Stubbs, Drew Sutton (SS), and Ryan Hanigan (C)). Nevertheless, the city of Cincinnati has some fun prospects on the rise, most notably Yonder Alonso, Chapman, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco. I am not going to talk about rookies from the 2009 draft (Leake or Boxberger) and Grey has already mentioned Aroldis Chapman and his analysis. Plus, I am sure everyone is tired of hearing about his “instant” ability to pitch in the majors. Um, yeah, I’ll believe it when I see it and punch myself if he starts the year in the majors.

Graduating Prospects
#3 – (CF) Drew Stubbs; #16 (C) Ryan Hanigan; #24 – (RHP) Carlos Fisher

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – Bradley Boxberger; Mike Leake; Logan Ondrusck; Sean Watson
Hitters – Yonder Alonso; Zack Cozart; Chris Heisey

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Yonder Alonso | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .292/.374/.464 | 295 AB | 24 2B | 9 HR | .172 ISO | 46:41 K:BB | .318 BABIP | 33.1 GB% | 27.1 LD% | 39.8 FB%
His total at-bats are nearly evenly split between the two levels. There is no sense in repeated what I said in August when I wrote a Scouting the Unknown article on Yonder Alonso. Same applies today as it did before.

#2 – Todd Frazier | 2B/3B/OF | AA/AAA | 23 | .292/.351/.481 | 514 AB | 45 2B | 16 HR | .189 ISO | 79:48 K:BB | .322 BABIP | 32.2 GB% | 22.6 LD% | 45.2 FB%
Only 63 AB at Triple-A
With light hitting Chris Dickerson and flameout Wladimir Balentien playing in left field, Frazier may have a chance to play at the major league level in 2010. He only had 63 at-bats at Triple-A in 2009, so he’ll need another half season there. With his ability to play multiple positions, he’s become a jack-of-all-trades. Meaning he isn’t above-average at any position. He has a strong arm and soft hands which would translate well to left field and third base. Owning above-average raw power, Frazier could provide average defense at either left or third with 20 to 25 homers a season with a good average (.275 to .300 range). Think Melvin Mora.

#8 – Juan Francisco | 3B | AA/AAA | 22 | .295/.329/.518 | 529 AB | 31 2B | 24 HR | .223 ISO | 115:24 K:BB | .332 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 20.5 LD% | 33.6 FB%
With Francisco projected as the future third baseman, Frazier may be relegated to the outfield. Granted, he may outgrow third and need to be traded or switch positions. He only had 92 at-bats at Triple-A, but he had 21 at-bats in the majors. The last three years (including this one) he has totaled 25, 23, and 24 homers (between three levels). Watch for his power to develop again at Triple-A and wait for Rolen to make his annual trip to the DL. Playing in the Reds bandbox, Francisco could put up some surprising rookie numbers.

#22 – Chris Heisey | CF/OF | AA/AAA | 24 | .314/.379/.521 | 516 AB | 35 2B | 22 HR | .207 ISO | 21/3 SB/CS | 77:48 K:BB | .346 BABIP | 31.9 GB% | 19.4 LD% | 48 FB%
Few players stock rose as much as Heisey’s did in 2009. With an appearance in the majors this past September, Heisey looks to be out of the Randy Winn mold. 15 to 20 homers with 15 to 20 steals. His defense (strong arm and good range) will get him noticed, as will his ability to play all outfield spots. Some scouts have pegged him as a fourth outfielder. This past year, he showed that he could be a regular.

Pitchers
#18 Matt Maloney | LHP | AA/AAA | 25 | 7.8 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 150 IP | 3.00 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .318 BABIP | 43 GB% | 15.5 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Maloney threw 40 2/3 IP at the MLB level in addition to what he did in the minors. Although he looks like a solid number three pitcher, his strong tendency to give up homers and fly balls make him more of a fourth or fifth in the rotation, especially in the Reds small park. He does have a natural sinking 88 to 91 mph fastball, a plus changeup, and an average curveball and slider. Not blessed with the most overpowering “stuff,” Maloney does a good job of using his talents to pitch and not just throw. Not overtly sleeper worthy, but in really deep leagues, he may possess some stretches where he could be ownable.

Travis Wood | LHP | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 167 2/3 IP | 1.77 ERA | 3.28 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .259 BABIP | 42.7 GB% | 15.7 LD% | 37.9 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP, Wood’s stock has risen (no pun intended) back to pre-2009 levels (#21 in 2008). I mention him because (A) he is a lefty, (B) he has a career .284 BABIP, and (C) pitching is always unpredictable. With Dusty Baker riding his young pitchers, you never known when a prospect will get called upon. Wood may be called upon soone rather than later if he can prove 2009 wasn’t a fluke. (He only threw 48 2/3 IP at Triple-A with noticeable differences in his statistical performance).

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Much like Wood, Jukich had a great year.  With a better defense behind him and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%), he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is nonexistent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc).

Sam Lecure | RHP | AAA | 25 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 143 1/3 IP | 4.46 ERA | 4.05 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | 1.1 HR/9 | .314 BABIP | 38 GB% | 18.3 LD% | 39.1 FB%
Not sure if he should even be mentioned for fantasy purposes. None of his stats would be good for the majors, or even at the Reds home park. Just another arm to shy away from.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Wes Bankston | 1B/3B | AAA | 25 | .267/.313/.449 | 457 AB | 26 2B | 17 HR | .182 ISO | 88:50 K:BB | .297 BABIP | 36.1 GB% | 18.1 LD% | 45.8 FB%
The last three years he has played for Tampa Bay, Oakland and now Cincinnati. He’s also hit 17, 20, 17 HR the past three years. Could be a source of cheap homers at the cost to your batting average.

Pitchers
Matt Fairel | LHP | A/A+ | 21 | 7.7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 160 2/3 IP | 3.02 ERA | 3.59 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .299 BABIP | 44.1 GB% | 16 LD% | 33.9 FB%

These next pitchers have better upside than the ones already mentioned (minus Leake, Chapman, and Boxberger), but aren’t going to help you in 2010 without a rash of injuries. He threw 50 IP at Single-A and then went on to High-A and pitched well.

Mace Thurman | LHP | A/A+ | 22 | 9.3 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 79 2/3 IP | 1.81 ERA | 2.99 FIP | .99 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .250 BABIP | 42.9 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 36.2 FB%
His numbers were mind-boggling at Single-A and only went down to mind-blowing at High-A. He could be a set-up man within the next calender year (2011) or the closer within the same time frame.