Fantasy Baseball Advice

Finally, Francisco Liriano looked like the fantasy baseball player that we all wanted when we drafted him back in March. And by “we,” I mean you. How did I know you drafted Liriano? Because, when you drafted, I was in your room, sitting behind the John Cena life-sized cardboard cutout, eating your Raspberry Newtons, while I read your Choose Your Own Adventure book. You think that’s freaky? I’m still there. Only you can’t see me. Muahahahaha…ha. So Liriano put together a great first start back after dominating Triple-A, yet there’s some savvy fantasy baseball owners out there that will see this for what it is, an opportunity to sell. Buh-buh-but, Grey, Liriano could dominate? Yeah, so can Campillo, Randy Johnson, Nolasco and Myers, but none of those guys have the name/trade-value Francisco Liriano has right now. Do I think Liriano will be good? Sure. But if you need a piece other than a starter who is riskier than people are perceiving him, then go for it. Don’t forget, I’m watching. Boo! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Billy Wagner – 2 MRIs in 2 weeks is 2 many; 2 bad; K.I.T, BFF. On a scale of worthy replacements, Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez fall right between Shemp and Curly Joe. The Mets called up Eddie Kunz, their Double-A closer. This, fellas, is anyone’s ballgame for at least a few weeks, if not the rest of the season.

John Maine – Maine hit the 15-day DL. This is a move that’s probably about a month overdue. He should be back in a couple of weeks.

Manny Ramirez – 4-for-5, HR, 3 RBIs. Imagine you’re a waiter for Applebee’s. You slack off for two years, deciding customers can get their own mozzarella sticks from the kitchen. Then Applebee’s starts saying you haven’t been doing your job, which is absolutely true, but you don’t want to hear it. You quit and take a job at the Olive Garden, knowing if you work for two months then you will get a huge bonus in the winter and be able to go anywhere — Chili’s, Cheesecake Factory, you name it. So do you bust your hump at the Olive Garden or do you continue to slack?

Stephen Drew – Yesterday, 3-for-5 with a HR, and over .350 in last 7 games. So far not a “step forward” season, but he’s worth the gamble the rest of the way to see if he can get hot.

Xavier Nady – 4-for-5, HR and 6 RBIs. Let’s go back to the 7th day of the season, shall we? “Honestly, never thought I’d ever mention (Nady) on the blog, but he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? What, am I Ms. Cleo? I don’t know for sure, but history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere. Maybe this is Nady’s year.” You know what’s funny? (Not funny funny, just mildly interesting funny.) People are still asking me if they should pick up Nady. No love for the X-Man.

Fernando Rodney/Kyle Farnsworth/Joel Zumaya – Triumvirate, noun 1. a group of three closers that are making Todd Jones feel missed. 2. Sounds like it’s a Latin combination of triumphant and irate, but it’s not.

Mike Aviles – 4-for-4, HR. Check out his ESPN player photo. Talk about respect. For those who are interested in what he looks like, here’s Mike Aviles.

Mariano Rivera – Back spasms. Supposedly he’ll be okay. Jose Veras would’ve been who they turned to. Okay, save vultures, pick apart Veras’s bones.

Jose Guillen – Homered for the 2nd straight day and 3rd this week. Worth a pickup, just drop him when he realizes he’s stuck with the Royals until the end of the season.

Alfonso Soriano – The other day someone asked me for some names that could hit 15 HRs between now and end of season. In two months, this is a very difficult assignment (to hit 15 HRs, it’s not difficult to pick guys), the list looked like this (the order is their likelihood of getting to 15 HRs): Dunn, Soriano, Holliday, Burrell, Braun, Carlos Lee, Hamilton, Cust, Krispie and Vlad.

Andy LaRoche – HR yesterday. In leagues where you need to take some risks, I’d look at LaRoche. Then try and find anyone else, then look at LaRoche again, then take a steam, get a massage (you look stressed), get a bite to eat, play nine holes, then look over your 3rd base choices again and, if your choices are still limited, grab LaRoche.

Rafael Soriano – He’s done for the year. Back date this to April.

Chone Figgins – Another 4 hit game. Oh Figgy give him one more chance.

Joel Hanrahan – Picked up his first save since Rauch was traded. As I said when the trade went down, Rauch only had 17 saves in over half of a year, Hanrahan’s not netting 20 in two months. And that’s me paraphrasing me!

Jorge Campillo – 7 IP, 6 Ks, 0 ER. He replaced Harang on most of my deeper teams. Now I don’t care if I ever see Harang again. Okay, that’s mean. I wanna see Harang again, just not on any of my teams.

Shane Victorino – 10th HR as he threatens to run away with the HR crown in the Victorino vs. Rios battle.

Ryan Ludwick – I’m convinced LaRussa could make Austin Kearns an All-Star (while batting him ninth and the pitcher fourth).

Brett Myers – Only one walk in his last two starts. Definitely worth taking a look in deeper leagues. Maybe he’s taking a similar route to Wainwright last year when it took him half a year to shake being a closer the previous year. Or maybe Myers’s trip to the minors smacked some sense into him. Though it’s usually Myers smacking the minors.

Is there another pitcher that tantalizes more than Chad Billingsley? 13Ks in 7 IP against the Marlins to earn his 9th win. His 135 K’s are tied with Lincecum for the major league lead – a couple more than guys like Volquez and Sabathia. Why is someone so unhittable not an elite pitcher yet? Because he’s still hanging out too much with Motley Crue on the Sunset Strip – as in he likes to take a ride on the Wild Side w/ his 4+ BB per 9 IP. Yes, we’ve managed a hip-hop and hair band music references in one post. We’re well-rounded like that. (If we were celebrities, we’d so beat Reege on Celebrity Jeopardy! and give all the money to anyone who lives in a bubble. Cause really is there anything worse? You’re in a freakin’ bubble! How is this not the number one charity on every celebrity gameshow? BTW, if you live in a bubble, do you have to dust? We have to know!) While Rudy is still patting himself on the back for getting him a couple starts back for a still healthy Matt Capps, the window is near closed to pick up as good a dark horse for NL 2nd half Cy Young as you’re going to find. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Takashi Saito – Came out of Saturday’s game with elbow pain. Time for some math, ya’ll — Pitcher + elbow pain = Broxton closer for at least two weeks as Saito hits the DL.

Jhonny Peralta – He was so insulted by our lumping him in with fellow extraneous H Khalil Greene that he finishes the half with a flourish — 11-for-30 / 7R / 4 HR / 12 RBI in his last 7 games.

A.J. Burnett – The #1 crazy hot chick in baseball. Today against the Yanks, hot. Next start, pretending to be pregnant so you can’t watch football. Worth the gamble if you need K’s or agita.

Kevin Youlikis – Left the game after being hit by a Daniel Cabrera fastball. Youch. The tragic part. Cabrera was trying to throw a pitchout.

Hanley Ramirez/Carl Crawford – Sat because of a sore shoulder and a sore hamstring respectively. Don’t be too concerned; this is like Senior Day in the majors. I hear they’re all meeting at The Max then going to TP Mr. Beldings’.

Mike Gonzalez – Kazaam!

Jorge Campillo – On my cursed ‘pert team (Rich Hill, Harang and Wainwright), I had Campillo. He pitched well then fouled a ball off his foot in the sixth. Hopefully he’ll be all right. Otherwise, I’m going for Charlie Morton. You’ve been warned.

CC Sabathia – CG, 9Ks, 2 ER. Seems to be a good fit in Milwaukee. Schmiel, Schmazzle, Hossenfeffer Incorporated…ba pa ba pa ba ba pa…they’re gonna do it….CC and Prince sharing a carefree ride on a tandem bicycle, CC blowing a bubble with sausage casing at a bratwurst factory and sticking it on top of a brat….

Tim Lincecum – 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks, now has a 11-2 record. Somehow the Giants are ahead of both the Padres and Rockies right now. Wow. I’m not sure if that’s more a compliment to Lincecum or a kick in the nuts to the Padres and Rockies. (BTW, Does a kick in the nuts hurt more or less when you’re a mile high?)

Justin Verlander – Since June 1, 8 starts, 5 Wins, 55 IP, 52 Ks, ERA/WHIP in the 2.70/1.10 area. When Rudy predicted him to win Cy Young, he assumed that Verlander was going to pitch like this and not take April off. Kudos to anyone who picked him up on the cheap.

Jeff Clement – HR yesterday. His .165 AVG shows that Seattle can get the same production from young players that they normally get from high-salaried guys like Sexson, Kenji, and Vidro. Clement’s got upside though…keep him around if you’re in a 2 catcher league. Otherwise, throw him back into the FA pool.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Dice-K’s now 10-1. I say smoke. You say mirrors. I say smoke. You say mirrors. If you think a .257 BABIP and 5.68 BB/9 IP is unsustainable, say “Regression”….

Jerry Hairston Jr. – Left the game with a right hamstring pull. 1800 miles away, Scott Hairston yelped in pain.

Matt Joyce – 4 HR in 5 games for Detroit. Guess Marcus Thames gave him the HR conch shell. His minor league stats point to power with no speed or great average. Ride him while he’s high, drop him when he starts falling.

Mike Aviles – Three hit game yesterday. He’s at 21/4/21/.310/3 over 58 games. If I’m not wrong, aren’t these numbers pretty yawnstipating? I get more questions about this schmohawk. People got rookie nookie on the brain. Aviles is fine, but he’s not F-I-N-E or winning you any league, unless you’re playing in the “Most Mediocre SS League,” but then you’re probably going to lose to the team with Renteria anyway.

Pat Burrell – HR yesterday. Goes into the All-Star break with 23/57/.275. Is it me or does he run like he’s on a mop pony? It’s like he’s accompanying King Arthur to find the Holy Grail. The 1B coach should have to hit coconuts together when he runs. I’m sure Victorino can supply the coconuts.

With visions of a goat, Bartman and a fat man, the Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The Cubs are so my neighbor that bought a Prius after I bought my Saab. Seriously, Cubbies, why don’t you build a bigger extension onto the side of your house too? Then when I have a Fourth of July party, I can urinate in your tomatoes. Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah, Rich Harden! Harden’s never pitched 200 IP in a season. He came close four years ago with 189.2. Since then Harden’s innings pitched look like this: 128, 46.2, 25.2 and 77 thus far this year. I guess it’s a good sign that he got over that 46.2 hump. If the Cubs plan to play late into October, then he’ll be way over 200. From a fantasy baseball prospective, this all means little. Harden goes to a less-friendly park, but a new league that isn’t familiar with him. That’s a push. His stuff is certifiably nasty, but he still can hurt himself sneezing. You know what Harden is? He’s untradeable. I just wrote this last Friday when I said Harden was a Sell, “Not sure who you’re selling (Harden) to…” The Cubs, I suppose. How do the Cubs make this move? They traded for a guy my 12 year old cousin, Little Stevie, wouldn’t touch and Aunt Caroline used to drink while pregnant with him! I like Gaudin and Gallagher better and I will be bidding a few dollars on them in deep leagues. I even like Murton better. If the Cubs waited two weeks to make this trade, it probably wouldn’t have happened because Harden will probably be on the DL. I’m going to make a prediction, Harden hits the DL and the Cubs end up slotting in Gaudin who turns into a quality pitcher and ends up starting in the playoffs. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ben Sheets/CC Sabathia – Now that the Cubs can match their frail righty (Harden) and tubby flamethrower (Zambrano), will the Cardinals ask the Yanks for Ponson back to team up with Carpenter later this year?

Bobby Jenks – Hater Bell was mystified last week when Karabell told everyone (who pays for ESPN’s Hindsighter™) to bank on Jenks. Jenks has been reporting back pain for over a week. Linebrink (or Thornton or Dotel) will step in and get some saves. This didn’t seem like rocket science to me, but maybe it was for Karabell. Now Jenks heads to the DL. Well, dur.

Miguel Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday. In three years, you’ll be telling someone about how Cabrera wasn’t good for you back in ‘08 and they’ll look at his stats and say, “Nuh-uh.” And then you’ll say, “Didn’t the Martians say we couldn’t use the phrase, ‘Nuh-uh? Busted!’”

Mike Pelfrey – Another quality start (7 IP, 3H, no ER).  Granted, it was against the Giants, but still…. Actually, I’m still not buying into Pelfrey.

Mike Aviles – 4-for-7 or as I like to say, “Khalil Greene has only had two 3 hit nights all year.” What I also could’ve said, “Greene is 3-for-22 in July.” Which means, “I hate Tulo for making me play Greene in a deep league.”

Aubrey Huff/Joe Crede – How do these guys have 34 HRs between them (18 for Huff, 16 for Crede)?  Those would’ve been our over/unders for their full season totals.  Maybe ex-Devil Ray Huff is getting some of the good fortune befitting his old team.  Wait…Jorge Cantu is having a hell of a season.  How come Delmon hasn’t gotten the memo?  As for Crede, we give up.  He’s like the younger Mike Lowell.  He can hit .250 or .300.  15 HR or 35 HR.  Play 150 games.  Play 60 games.  Nothing surprises anymore.  Hear that.  You can’t surprise us any more.

Randy Wolf – Another quality Petco start with 7 IP of 1 ER ball.  He’s like a wolf when he pitches at home and like Randy Wolf when he pitches away.

Alexis Rios – I missed the Jays last night because I was watching “I Love Money.” (Bee tee dubya, it’s a new reality show high. They’ve brought back 15 of the “best” reality show contestants who were looking for money while they were supposedly looking for love. Only now they are being open about it being all for money, but it looks like some inadverently fall in love. However, the first time it was obvious they were only interested in money and some fell in love anyway. It’s like a Möbius strip of nonsense. But I digress.) So all I saw of the Jays was this scroll, “Rios scored the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth…” I was like, “Aw, sookie. Triple, Double? Single?” It was a walk.

Jair Jurrjens – 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER, the win and the saving grace for the proud people of Curaçao.

Brian McCann/Geovany Soto – They are having nearly identical seasons. Brianvany SotoCann should totally switch Varsity jackets and see if their dates notice.

Dustin McGowan – I warned people about McGowan’s overuse last season. Yesterday, he exited early for an MRI. Quick math problem: An MRI + Overuse = 15-day DL that gets extended to 30 days.

Chase Headley – 24 Ks/0 walks. He’s really not much better than Bruce, it just seems it because it’s a little less feast or famine (which is, like, soooooo American of you to like Headley more. It’s the middle class.)

Ryan Dempster/Justin Duchscherer – 16 IP, 4 hits allowed and 1 ER. Combined. If you made us GM for a year, we’d turn all the relievers into starters.  Except Gagne.  We’d turn him into a team mascot like the Quazy Quebecois.

Aaron Harang – Fuck you.

Aaron Harang is not a bad pitcher. Actually, he hasn’t even been bad this year. (Okay, he hasn’t been good either.) If I may turn my hat crooked, Harang just had some straight-up bad luck, yo. You want numbers? How about these? His BABIP .335, that’s bad luck. His K/9 is around 8. That’s very solid. Three year ERA, 3.77. He’s at 4.33. So that should come down. He’s a workhorse, so that’s a lot of IP with good numbers. Going forward, Harang should have good numbers across the board minus wins; those I can’t guarantee. But chasing wins is a losing man’s game. (Hey, that was a pretty clever turn of a phrase. If I had an internet page of quotes like Oscar Wilde or Mitch Hedberg, that would be 17th. 16th would be, “Can I get an Amen, Sherman Hemsley?” and 18th would be “Dance With Me here, Orleans.” But I digress.) So what do you do with this Harang-a-tang of info? You go trade for him, that’s what you do. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy or sell:

BUY

Robinson Cano – On my gravestone it will say, “I told you I was ill” and my legacy will be pimping Cano for two months straight.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Someone mentioned in the comments yesterday that they haven’t heard anything about him. Reyes has really gone under the radar for me. I only mentioned to pick him up here, here, here, here, here. The first mention was a day after his first start of ‘08. If you guys (and possibly one or two girls, but highly doubtful) want, change your fantasy baseball password to what I use, “GreyIsFortified” and I’ll do your drops and adds.

Chase Headley – Kouzmanoff has done a lot of nothing since last year. Now he’s supposedly suffering from a sore back.

Jeff Francis – Very serviceable coming into this year until he was completely derailed in his quest to match Snell in a game of onedownmanship. His next game is against the Royals. If he pitches well, he’ll be a hot add. You’ve been warned. Or as they say in knitting circles, you’ve been yarned.

Jeff Baker – Rudy liked him coming into the year, then he fell out of favor (Baker, not Rudy). Rudy’s adding him all over the place again.

Kory Casto – On most days, he’s starting in place of Wily Mo Pena; I like Casto in NL-Only leagues. But remember, “Person who dance with Nats is easily bored.”

Jeff Keppinger – I wait with bated breath to start him in a NL-Only league. (BTW, it is bated, not baited. Check yo’self, fool.) Keppy’s about a week away from coming back.

Mike Aviles – Seems like people are falling over themselves to add this dude. I can understand it. As I’ve said many times before, when you’re dealing with MI, CI, UT or fifth starters, you want to take a gamble. There’s no point in fielding a boring, safe guy. (That’s not to say there’s no point in fielding a productive, safe guy. There is a difference. Figuring out the difference was my minor at The Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.)

Eric Byrnes – Nope, I don’t like him, but I feel like no one likes him at this point. If everyone’s zigging, why aren’t you zagging? Would be worth seeing how cheaply you can grab Byrnes. I’d think you can get him for next to nothing and he could prove a valuable fifth outfielder in the 2nd half of the year.

Josh Willingham – It says he’s owned in 93% of all ESPN leagues. Now I’m assuming 99% of ESPN leagues are drafted in March then the owners never look at their team again. If this is not the case and people have been holding onto Willingham and wasting a lineup spot all of this time, you are going to make me blow a blood vessel. Now everyone who dropped Willingham, you can go get him again.

SELL

Jake Peavy – I love Peavy, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m selling. Call me conservative, but I can’t wrap my mind around pitchers with recent arm troubles.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – See Headley, Chase or about three and two-thirds of an inch above.

Hiroki Kuroda – He wasn’t that bad when he was in there, but now he has shoulder tendinitis. Punt.

J.D. Drew – With my hands in my pockets, I stood next to J.D. Drew as he talked to Manny. I waited for an introduction. They laughed about Youkilis’s party out on The Cape. Apparently, Manny read from his journal of poems that he wrote while in left field. They laughed and I punched Drew in the mouth.

Joe Saunders – I think he’s already been on a Sell List. Hmm… Well, here he is again, because he’s keeping up this unsustainable start!

Aaron Cook – Full disclosure, I’ve had him in a mixed ten team league for two months and have reaped a lot of his benefits. I know he’s not really this good; everyone knows this. This isn’t a “sell” as much as a “be glad for what you got and be ready to drop.”

Joe Nathan – I could’ve put Mariano Rivera here instead of Taipei Slinklo or any other top closer. (I could’ve even put Beanie McDougalston, but that’s a made up name.) Because at the end of the year, when everything’s said and done, do you ever look in the mirror and say, “I am so glad I had Taipei Slinklo. And damn my hair looks good,” or do you say, “I’m glad I traded Joe Nathan for Harang. And damn my hair looks good?” You tell me. Tell me!