Fantasy Baseball Advice

At least that’s the creed that Francona and Epstein keep repeating to themselves as they sit in the fetal position on opposite corners of the clubhouse shower. Carl Crawford seems like a nice guy.  Something about the name Carl.  So innocuous.  “Hey, sis, what’s your new boyfriend’s name?  Carl?  I’m gonna like him on Facebook.”  That’s you jibber-jabbering with your family.  Because Carl seems like a nice guy could be partially why it’s so sad to see him struggle this much.  Doode better not stand too close to the Pesky pole in a lightning storm cause he will get struck.  That’s been his luck so far.  Franconian measures were taken to get Crawford going by openly mocking him with a lineup switch.  That never helps.  It’s like when you’re a teenager and your Mom makes an appointment for you to see a dermatologist.  Suddenly, you realize you’re not hiding your acne as good as you thought you were.  Crawford is really doing nothing wrong other than getting extremely unlucky.  That luck will turn around and he’ll suddenly look like the 2nd round pick he was in the preseason.  To misquote a cliche, get in now while the gettin’s not good.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Justin Smoak – I just went over my Smoak fantasy.  I wrote it riding on the back of a bicycle through downtown Milwaukee while Shirley steered.

Brett Wallace – Sure, his ESPN Player Card looks like he had some bad work done by Dr. 90210 (you storing acorns in those cheeks, Brett?  Brett looks like he says, “Franks and beans!  Franks and beans!”), but he’s hitting at a near-.600 clip over the last week.

Brandon Wood – He’s one of the top prospects in the game!  Low voice:  From 6 years ago.

David Cooper – With the demotion of Snider (don’t write), Cooper will fill-in as the Jays DH.  For the Triple-A Vegas Fake Boobs, Cooper slashed .395/.438/.617.  His BABIP was silly ridiculous, so the average there isn’t happening but his power is decent.  When you put ‘decent power’ into Google translator, it spits back ‘Above James Loney but below Justin Smoak.  Say Ike Davis.  No, you don’t have to literally say it.’  Geez, Google translator sounds a bit testy.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s a must own — obviously.  I’d take a flyer on him in deeperish mixed leagues, depending on how bad you muffed your corner infidel slot.

Sergio Santos – This is probably still Mergio Salthorntos’ job, but Serge is a nose ahead.

Eduardo Sanchez – Similar shituation to the White Sox.  It’s not clearly Eduardo’s job.  Imagine, if you will, you’re traveling through another dimension — a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind.  A journey into a wondrous land where Ozzie and La Russa make every decision for you.  You order a burger then a steak then a piece of chicken.  You get your car washed, decide halfway through that you need a shower and hop out of your car.  You go to the movies and leave halfway through the opening credits.  That’s a signpost up ahead:  your next stop:  the Twilight Zone!

Vicente Padilla – I’d go with Kuo first.  Speaking of which…

Hong-Chih Kuo – Hello, I wish to welcome everyone who was sent here from the ellipsis in Padilla’s blurb.  Make yourself comfortable.  Can I offer you some tea?

Darren Oliver – He sounds like a sitcom character.  Not a funny one.  The straight man.  Not that there’s anything wrong with being straight.  Feliz is a lock to be saving games in a week (please, God, let that be true), but I’d own Oliver in the mean’s while.

Wilson Ramos – Grey’s Prediction That Doesn’t Matter At All Of The Day:  Ramos is going to be on and off waivers all year then will be drafted next year around 140 overall as he appears on sleeper lists all across the interwebs.

Mike Aviles – Not a huge fan, but he’s on his way to 15/15 season and his average should come up.

Jeff Baker – Baker has been so hot.  Like an oven.

Darwin Barney – The Purple Evolutionist, as someone coined him in the comments the other day, is hitting over his head, but that doesn’t mean you can’t ride the hot schmotato.

Clint Barmes – He’s still available in my NL-Only league and I’m not exactly rushing to pick him up.  Never the hoo!  If you’re rocking someone two eggs short of an omelet, I’d stash Barmes.

Domonic Brown – Pick him up now, DL him for a few weeks, then trade him a day before he returns.  Or ride the Brown lightning.  Hmm, that sounds kinda weird.

Randy Wolf – Could someone please make a t-shirt with three pictures of Wolf howling at the moon?  That is all.

Scott Baker – Rudy likes Scott Baker.  This was brought to you by the Committee of Grey Endorsing Baker Without Really Endorsing Him.

Alex White – Just went over Alex White this morning.  Scroll on, scroller!

Brandon Beachy – Me telling you to grab Beachy seems so three Buy/Sell’s ago, but he’s still only owned in 23% of ESPN leagues.  The same Beachy that has 31 Ks in 29 1/3 IP, a 31:9 K:BB and a 1.09 WHIP.

SELL

Gordon Beckham – Hitting under .200 with 2 homers and 1 steal.  At this point, I’d prefer to own Gordon Shumway.  I think it’s fair to say we can move on from this schmohawk.

Aubrey Huff – Depends on the league whether you’re dropping him or trading him (as with most of these guys), but I warned you in the preseason of Huff’s Saberhagenish on/off years.  In fact, I’ll quote it for you cause that’s how I roll, “A big flashing red arrow is pointing at his alternate seasons of 15 home runs a piece in 2007 and 2009.  If you get an off season from Huff, you’ve just lost your league.  That’s just me being real wit’ you.  You see the truth is everybody wanna know how close me and Huff is.  Or who I’m still cool wit’.”  And that’s me quoting me and paraphrasing Dr. Dre!  Can we get Detox already?  I need a doctor.

Bobby Abreu – Getting some spring cleaning done here.  I think Abreu’s done cause he looks cooked.

Wade Davis – I’m not telling you to drop him, but I’m wondering in the dark recesses of my medulla oblongata if you can sell Davis for more ducats than he’s worth.  Obviously, I’m talking deep leagues here since he’s not even owned in all leagues.  He is pitching far above his head ratio-wise.  His K-rate is atrocious (4+) and he’s getting lucky with balls hit into play.  In AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t sell him for a white chocolate dipped fortune cookie, but I’d explore offers.

After the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2011 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  Actually, when I point it out, it gets more clerical.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball:

21. Jacoby Ellsbury – This is a continuation of the last tier in the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Tabata.  Jacoby should put the nickname D’Ellsbury behind him and bounce back, but he also might be bouncing back from the bottom of the lineup.  As Rico Petrocelli might say, “That’s a not so nice.”  Be careful to not pay top dollar for SAGNOF.  2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45

22. Brett Gardner – He’s that much worse than Ellsbury?  Rhetorical!  I’ve taken part in 2 1/2 mocks so far — really three, but I was kinda hungover during one, so we’ll say it’s half (actually, I am saying it and I’m not we but whatever)  and Gardner has gone near the end of the draft.  What gives?  Didn’t he have a much better year than Ellsbury?  Sure, Ellsbury can be better, but how much better than Gardner?  Oh, and Gardner don’t take no jive from no Western Union messengers.  2011 Projections:  105/7/55/.270/45

23. Jose Tabata – I kinda love Tabata.  I’m having a hard time separating him from Ellsbury and Gardner when you remove their names and just look at their stats.  Okay, all of their stats but their Runs.  But Ellsbury’s an injury risk and Gardner’s a “Are they playing him and where are they batting him in the order?” risk.  At least we know Tabata will play.  I mean, who else are they going to play?  The Pirates will run him out there every game at the top of the order assuming he’s healthy.  And the Pirates offense could surprise.  There, I said it!  2011 Projections:  90/6/40/.280/40

24. Colby Rasmus – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stubbs.  I call this tier, “I’m enthused about these guys, but what happened to all of the outfielders that are a lock for big numbers?  Seriously, WTF?”  I enjoy a 25/15 outfielder like Rasmus just as much as the next man, woman or dwarf, but where’s the forty home run outfielders?  Where’s the guys that can go 30/30?  As mentioned before, I wish to implement a rule that allows one position each year to use steroids.  The fans won’t know which position it is and then they can have fun guessing.  This year, I’d let outfielders do the honors.  Oh, and not only is Rasmus iffy for 25/15 but there’s a good chance La Russa poisons his oatmeal.  2011 Projections:  95/25/80/.265/15

25. Jay Bruce – I kinda like how Jay Bruce continues to move up the fantasy rankings each year even though he’s still yet to put up a huge season.  People are just dying to make him a first round draft pick.  He hits 35 homers and steals 10 bases and he’ll be there.  The thing is, he can do it.  Oh, man, I’m just as guilty as anyone.  2011 Projections:  85/32/100/.270/7

26. Mike Stanton – Bill James has Stanton down for 38 homers.  You have to appreciate the crazy fanboy aspect to it.  I picture Bill James cutting articles of Stanton out of magazines while watching Big Love and squealing when Harry Dean Stanton appears.  Stanton IS (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) capable of 38 homers, which does make him exciting, but don’t put it in the bag until it’s paid for.  (Also, went over my 2011 Mike Stanton fantasy already.)  2011 Projections:  70/32/80/.250/7

27. Curtis Granderson – His splits aren’t making the first team cheer squad.  Probably my first ranking that I’m really not comfortable with but what are you gonna do with a potential 25+ homer, 15+ steal guy?  If you own him, you’re probably gonna need a bench outfielder to slot in when Grandy is either on the Yanks bench or just facing a lefty.  Even if you sit him vs. lefties, you’re going to get solid production from him.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15

28. Adam Lind – I went over Lind in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.  (Note:  He only has 16 games in the outfield.)

29. Grady Sizemore – *Grey shrugs*  That’s me answering your pregunta about whether or not Sizemore will be healthy.  He’ll only be 28 years old for the majority of the 2011 season.  It’s not like he’s old like, say, Carlos Belchran.  Sizemore should have some left in the tank if his gams and mollywhoppers are at a 100%.  If I have one single question mark in the first few rounds of my draft, I wouldn’t touch Sizemore.  If I’m pretty confident with the guys I take up front, then I could see gambling on him.  2011 Projections:  90/18/65/.270/22

30. Drew Stubbs – I already sopped up my Stubbs fantasy with a ShamWow.  I almost put Stubbs up above Victorino in the top 20 outfielders.  Oh em gee, right?  I kinda love him, but like my Native American friends I have some reservations.  If Dusty Baker only gives Stubbs 250 ABs, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.  Why?  Because Dusty’s effin’ loco.  If Stubbs hits .210, it also wouldn’t surprise me.  If Baker’s crazy tendencies and Stubbs’ average break right, Stubbs could be a top ten outfielder.  2011 Projections:  95/18/65/.260/32

31. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from Hart until Huff.  I call this tier, “You’re paying for a career year and you should avoid these guys unless they fall in drafts.”  Let’s see, Hart’s strikeouts went up, his walks went down and his HR/FB% was abnormal.  Sounds terrific.  Maybe you, Hart and Bautista can have a foursome with 1996 Brady Anderson.  You know you like sideburns.  2011 Projections:  70/21/80/.260/10

32. Vernon Wells – Wells’ year wasn’t exactly a career year.  He’s had better.  But that was a long time ago.  Also, his underlying stats aren’t screaming that he can’t repeat his year.  But II, The Return of But:  he’s way too fragile (hey, he’s Italian!).  I wouldn’t draft Wells with your team.  Ain’t worth the headache.  Oh, and the move to the Angels does nothing to his value.  2011 Projections:  60/21/70/.280/5

33. Ben Zobrist – Zobrist also didn’t have a career year last year.  You’re paying for his 2009 career year.  Zobrist’s projections can be found at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  Go there, Google translate it to French and learn a new language.

34. Aubrey Huff – I’m guessing Huff’s projections are in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  WILD F**KING GUESS!!!  Sorry, lost my shizz there for a second.

35. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lee. I call this tier, “Old is as old does.”  If you draft any of the guys in this tier, you might be over the age of fifty and started your draft prep an hour before your draft.  Hey, I’m not judging.  Cust kayin’.  For those who like word puzzles –> Are E: Double I: Eh.  Hunter’ll get you 18-22 homers and 8-12 steals.  Best thing you can hope for is a hot April and you flip him on May 1st for a slow starting Alexei Ramirez.  2011 Projections:  70/20/85/.280/10

36. Carlos Beltran – Some extra risk involved with this schmohawk but he’ll probably put up the same numbers as Torii Hunter.  That’s more an indictment of Hunter than anything.  Or maybe it’s indicting both on charges of name value meaning more than actual value.  2011 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/10

36 1/2. Vladimir Guerrero – He gets a half because he won’t have outfield eligibility in all leagues. (Only 19 games.  Just missing for ESPN, CBS and leagues that require players to have two knees.)  I think Vlad can be productive again when he’s healthy.  Just don’t know if I’d count on him playing in another 150+ games like last year.  DH, or no DH.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.295/5

37. Manny Ramirez – I don’t believe he has 30 homers left in his bat over the course of a full season.  He shouldn’t kill you in the other categories when he’s on the field.  Basically, Nick Swisher with a better average and more interesting hair.  The move to the Rays does nothing to his value, unless he hears where he has to play home games, tries to squeeze himself into an orange juice carton and hurts himself. 2011 Projections:  75/22/85/.300

38. Bobby Abreu – If you think this last tier and a half is boring as dog balls, the top 60 outfielders post is better.  You have my guarantee!  If not, I will refund your money!* (*Offer only good if you didn’t pay any money to me and I don’t have to refund you anything.)  2011 Projections:  80/15/70/.280/17

39. Nick Swisher – He was crazy lucky with his balls batted into play so he just started swinging at everything within ten inches of the plate.  The amount of balls he swung at outside the strike zone went from 17.3% in 2009 to 25.7% last year.  A really terrible sign, but assuming Swish finds his old plate discipline he should be fine.  If he doesn’t, he might hit .220.  2011 Projections:  80/27/90/.250

40. Carlos Lee – Went over Carlos Lee’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

40 1/8. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  As for Pierre, see tier name for further explanation.  BTW, Juan Pierre promised to hit his one homer this year on your birthday.  2011 Projections:  85/1/35/.300/50

40 1/4. Peter Bourjos – I have a Bourjos sleeper post already written, but haven’t posted it yet.  See ya this afternoon!  2011 Projections:  70/10/55/.255/30

40 1/2. Michael Bourn – I had a dream where Michael Bourn was drafting a fantasy team and his outfield consisted of Nyjer Morgan, Juan Pierre and himself.  Oh, Michael.  2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45

40 3/4. Nyjer Morgan – Nyjer Morgan had a similar dream but he drafted the girl from Precious, Oprah and Camryn Manheim.  Oh, Nyjer!  2011 Projections:  70/2/30/.260/40

40 7/8. Austin Jackson – Not exactly straight SAGNOF if that’s what you’re into sniffing, but Jackson’s also due for a regression on last year’s average and he doesn’t give that much more than steals.  You say tomato, I say the same but with a different emphasis.  2011 Projections:  85/5/40/.265/30

40 7/8 and a half. Rajai Davis – Um, steals?  2011 Projections:  70/4/35/.290/40

40 7/8 and seven-eighths. Scott Podsednik – If there’s a “Ballplayer’s Wife Is Hot” category in your league, you might want to reach for Podsednik.  2011 Projections:  60/3/25/.290/30

The top 10 and 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50.  Thanks, Groupon!  Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  Don’t believe me?  Click the link.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2011.  Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round.  Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Lance Berkman when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard?  I don’t.  I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Albert Pujols’ projections.

2. Miguel Cabrera – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

3. Joey Votto – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Joey Votto’s projections.

4. Prince Fielder – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Prince Fielder’s projections.

5. Adrian Gonzalez – See top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

7. Ryan Howard – See top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Ryan Howard’s projections.

8. Kevin Youkilis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Dunn.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a 1st baseman I’d feel safe with.”  Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day.  Now, granted, Youuuuuuk had a fluke injury last year that should be fine in 2011, but do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x?  I wouldn’t.  Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder?  Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier?  And this is only one tier down.  Go another tier down.  How do you feel with Howard compared to Butler?  With Fielder compared to Huff?  Sure, some of the guys below may produce, but there’s also lots of pitfalls in there.  As for Youuuuk, as mentioned, he should be fine returning from injury and give you his usual 25+ home runs and good counting stats.  2011 Projections: 95/27/95/.300/5

9. Justin Morneau – Last year, Morneau pulled a Kotchman and missed like a gazillion games.  I wonder if his doctor warned him not to lie in a hammock under a palm tree for fear a coconut would drop on his melon.  Eh, probably not.  But maybe!  Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have?  Exactly!  2011 Projections:  85/25/100/.285

10. Adam Dunn – I have no scientific proof of this, but I think we’re due for a .240 average season from Big Donkey.  I mean, two seasons of .260+ now for him.  He’s playing with the house’s money, ain’t he?  Unless he sold two of his usual forty homers for twenty points on his average.  Then maybe Juan Pierre sold four steals to buy Dunn a hairbrush.  That’s like that O. Henry story.  2011 Projections: 80/40/100/.245

11. Kendry Morales – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Huff.  I call this tier, “You got caveats.  Now go floss.”  Morales has one solid season under his belt then a limp-off home run.  Here’s what I said when he got hurt, “Too bad the Wide World of Sports isn’t still on.  They could’ve covered the agony and the ecstasy all in one full swoop (with Morales’ home run).  This injury reminds me of the time Justin Duchscherer heard The Hokey Pokey and in celebration put his right hip out.  And didn’t put his right hip back in for six to eight months later.”  That doesn’t mean anything as far as fantasy is concerned, but it made me giggle.  I got some gems up in this mug!  You’re welcome.  There’s not much to say about Morales.  If he’s healthy, draft him for 27+ home runs.  If he’s rusty as all get out, then you’re sitting in a public restroom realizing ten minutes too late there’s no toilet paper.  2011 Projections:  80/26/95/.290

11 1/2. Adam Lind – His caveat is his strikeouts skyrocketed last year.  Still, I’m a sucker for Lind.  I wouldn’t be if 30 homers didn’t seem like such a pipe dream for so many players nowadays.  I can’t promise you that he will return to the 35 homer hitter he was in 2009.  It’s far from scientific but what I think happened last year was he was being unlucky so he expanded the strike zone causing the bottom to fall out.  The numbers back up this theory.  His HR/FB% was also off last year.  Another 5 homers on top of his 23 homers last year is easily doable.  With a little luck, you’re looking at a .270, 30 homer guy.  With a lot of luck, you’re looking at even more.  (Note:  He only has 11 games at 1st base that’s why he got a half.  Check the fantasy baseball position eligibility, fool!)  2011 Projections:  80/27/90/.270

12. Carlos Pena – I already went over my Carlos Pena fantasy when he signed with the Cubs.  His caveat is his average.  It could be silent and deadly.  2011 Projections:  70/35/95/.235/3

13. Billy Butler – It’s Mardi Gras and you have one more string of beads.  You see what you believe is a foxy number, but you can only see her from the neck down.  Do you wait to see her face or do you throw your beads on chest size alone?  Those who drafted Butler last year after his 21 homer year in 2009 threw their beads and got flashed with a rack of moobs.  Mr. Grapefruit just doesn’t have huge power potential like his Humpty Dumpty-shaped body would indicate.  2011 Projections:  80/20/90/.310

14. Buster Posey – See top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball for Buster Posey’s projections.

15. Paul Konerko – Last year, Konerko had his highest HR/FB% since 2005.  He had his highest home run total since 2005.  He had his highest strikeout rate ever.  His lowest walk rate since 2004.  His highest BABIP in his career.  You got damn lucky last year if you owned him.  If you own him again this year, you’re doubling down on an eighteen and the dealer’s showing a picture card.  2011 Projections:  70/24/85/.265

16. Aubrey Huff – I don’t buy his 2010 season at all.  Actually, that’s a lie.  I buy it.  I just don’t think we can trust he’ll do it again in 2011.  Not to mention, a big flashing red arrow is pointing at his alternate seasons of 15 home runs a piece in 2007 and 2009.  If you get an off season from Huff, you’ve just lost your league.  That’s just me being real wit’ you.  You see the truth is everybody wanna know how close me and Huff is.  Or who I’m still cool wit’.  2011 Projections:  70/22/80/.275

17. Lance Berkman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Derrek Lee.  I call this tier, “Oldies and not so goodies.”  Maybe you draft someone from this tier and you get a 2010 Konerko.  Maybe you get a 2010 Berkman.  I would try not to live too much in the past.  These guys have deteriorating skills. As for Berkman, line drives are down (literally!), ground balls are up (not literally!) and fly balls are down (literally!).  St. Louis isn’t going to help turn around his career slide.  Sorry.  2011 Projections:  65/20/75/.270/5

18. Carlos Lee – Member how I said two seconds ago that one of these guys may be a 2010 Konerko?  If I had to bet, I wouldn’t guess public enemy #1, Chuck Lee.  2011 Projections:  65/24/75/.260/3

19. Mike Napoli – Not really old so sue the tier name for false advertising.  See top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball for Mike Napoli’s projections.

20. Adam LaRoche – The people who draft LaRoche late and say they just want his 25 home runs and don’t care that he only hits in the second half are the same people who ask me on April 15th if they should drop LaRoche for Gaby Sanchez.  That word is bond.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.265

21. Derrek Lee – Didn’t really want to turn this thing to 21, but I couldn’t fit Lee anywhere else and felt he needed to be accounted for especially with his new home in Baltimore.  To think I couldn’t get in James Loney at all.  Just don’t think about it for too long.  It’s a waste of time.  So let’s see why Derrek Lee is a candidate for a rebound… He’s old.  He’s only hit more than 22 homers once in the last five years.  He’s dealing with an injured thumb.  The only reason I can think people are suddenly excited about Lee is because the O’s signed him.  The O’s also finished in last place last year thirty games under .500.  This is a team you want to emulate?  If you’re pumped to find Lee on your draft board this late, you’re living in 2005.  Go buy some Apple stock, it hasn’t peaked yet.  2011 Projections:  75/18/80/.275/3

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Justin Smoak – Already went over my Justin Smoak fantasy.  If you read that post backwards, it’s a Satanic message.  Sorry, churchies!  2011 Projections:  75/22/90/.275

Gaby Sanchez – He’s a lot closer to Billy Butler’s value than he appears to be and at half the cost in your drafts.  Actually, he might be better than Billy Butler.  He’s only unofficially listed at number twenty-three because I wanted to highlight him.  Check out his projections then look at Billy Butler’s.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  2011 Projections:  75/20/90/.270/5

I was in no rush to review the signing of Victor Martinez by the Detroit Tigers.  No, it wasn’t all the tryptophan.  Players going to a new club that won’t change their fantasy value doesn’t really float my boat.  So let’s talk about what’s really on my mind, what a crock of shizz Paranormal Activity was.  Hey, girlfriend, I have an idea, let’s put baby powder on the ground. How about you dump the girl who can’t act, isn’t that pretty, makes bead jewelry and is being followed around by a demon?  That would’ve been my first thought.  Thankfully, I just had to order it on Netflix’s Instant thing-a-ma-movie-boob.  That, friends, is the best invention in the history of mankind behind the round beach blanket, which is my invention that I haven’t mass-produced yet.  You never have to turn it when the sun moves!  Martinez doesn’t have great career numbers at Comerica, but he wasn’t hitting right in front of or behind of Miguel Cabrera when he put up those numbers.  Plus, he was a visitor.  Anyone who has ever visited Detroit will have a pretty good idea why someone might not have the best time.  Martinez has never not hit (double negative!) and I don’t (triple!) think he suddenly stops never not hitting now.  (And he lands the Triple Lindy of double negatives!).  Could his numbers take a bit of a hit since he won’t be hitting doubles off the Green Monster?  Sure, but not enough to drop him below the third best catcher in the majors.  Anyway, here’s some more moves and their fantasy baseball repercussions:

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This is actually interesting for me in fantasy.  The Salty sleeper post is already written.  As they say at supermarkets about receipts, it’s in the bag.  Sure, Salty hasn’t done a damn thing in the majors the last few years, except come down with a case of the yips, but he’s going to be a cheap catcher in fantasy drafts that will be hitting in the Red Sox lineup.  Thank you, come again!

Javier Vazquez – Signs with the Marlins, and just like that Vazquez gets value again.  In his last year in the NL East with the Braves, he had an ERA of 2.87 (which was above his xFIP, for those pushing their glasses up their nose) and a K/9 9.77.  That was in 2009.  2009 wasn’t that long ago.  I still have a 2009 Hello Kitty calender hanging in my kitchen.  I told you last year to stay away from Vazquez in The Stadium They Built Next To The House That Ruth Built.  This year, I’m saying the opposite.  He’ll be in a stadium that suppresses home runs, in a division where he’ll face two of the bottom seven worst offenses per 2010 (the Gnats and the Mess).  I don’t think Vazquez simply returns to his 2009 numbers, but around a 3.75 ERA is still quite possible.  Yeah, I modified with “quite.”  Get used to it!

Aubrey Huff – The re-signing of Huff by the Giants does little to nothing for his fantasy value, i.e., it stays what it was last year, i.e., he either repeats his great season or does what everyone expected him to do before his great season and underperforms, i.e., he’ll probably be a fantasy bust.

Clint Barmes – Finally, the Astros have a replacement for Craig Biggio.  Only it’s the Biggio we saw in his last major league season when he hit 10 home runs and batted .251 and stole 4 bases.  In NL-Only leagues, I could see Barmes having some value as a late flier to see if he can hit fifteen home runs and steal ten bases (both numbers are his ceiling), but his average will probably be tizz-errible.

Eric Young Jr. – Even if you just started reading Razzball, you’re well aware I love me some Eric Young Jr.  I’m naming my firstborn Eric Young Albright Jr.  With Barmes out of town, Young should have regular time at second base.  He will definitely get a sleeper post in the near future.

Felipe Paulino – For pitchers with at least 80 IP, Paulino threw the 2nd hardest fastball behind only Ubaldo.  Like hanging out with the elderly, there’s trouble with the walks.  On the bright side, his FIP was 3.44 compared to his 5.11 ERA.  Paulino may not warrant fantasy consideration in all leagues, but in deeper mixed leagues (think 14+ teams) Paulino has the upside worth drafting.

Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2010.  Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers.  Read the title, man.  With the top 20 outfielders, a pattern emerges.  Steroids can be tested for, but Red Bull can’t.  There were only 6 outfielders to hit 30 homers and 2 of them were probably used at a corner infidel spot instead of the outfield.  There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases.  This speed renaissance is teaching Ron LeFlore how to smile again.  Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Carlos Gonzalez – In the preseason, I wrote a sleeper post for him, put him in my cheap alternatives post and told you he can make mayonnaise out of sea urchin*.  (*I may not have said the last one.)  Did I push you hard enough to draft him?  I hope so.  Let’s bask in a season that was for the ages before we talk about how he’s going to be overrated next season.  Shoot, that bask didn’t last long.  Preseason Rank #37, 2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20, Final Numbers: 111/34/117/.336/26

2. Carl Crawford – It’s the Carlos and Carl show!  Crawford didn’t hurt you in homers like many other players who provide the majority of their value with steals.  Still, push comes to shove and shove comes to ‘Stop touching me,’ I think Crawford’s overrated.  I want 40/20, not 20/40.  Oh, well, those days might be behind us, unless Braun or J-Upside can get their shizz together or A-Rod’s cousin accidentally bumps into someone with a needle.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  110/14/65/.290/50, Final Numbers:  110/19/90/.307/47

3. Josh Hamilton – In the preseason, I ranked him way above most ‘perts, if not all.  Here’s what I said then, “Never to be one to resist a talented guy who just had a tough year, I couldn’t stop myself from putting Hamilton higher than most ‘perts.  Is Hamilton still injury prone?  Dur, of course.  He’s still only 28 entering the 2010 season and he has big time talent.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.275/7, Final Numbers:  95/32/100/.359/8

4. Jose Bautista -  Went over him in my top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

5. Ryan Braun – Did Braun ruin your team this year?  No, he just couldn’t be relied on to carry it either.  Overall, it was a disappointing year for first round picks:  Utley, A-Rod, Braun, Te(i)x, Kemp, Fielder and Howard.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17, Final Numbers:  101/25/103/.304/14

6. Juan Pierre – I agree that all the steals help, but when there’s a lot of steals available all over the league, they mean less.  The ESPN Player Rater just puts too much emphasis on steals, so, yes, this ranking doesn’t make that much sense.  Preseason Rank #40, 2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45, Final Numbers:  96/1/47/.275/68

7. Matt Holliday – You can say what you want. (This is a free country in 49 of 50 states.  Damn you, South Dakota!)  You can say Holliday went for stretches where you didn’t want to own him and no stretches where he really carried your team.  I agree, but he’s the prototypical roto player where you just put him in there, forget about him and, at the end of the season, you have nice numbers in four categories and decent enough steals.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15, Final Numbers:  95/28/103/.312/9

8. Alex Rios – On June 1st, I told you to sell Rios.  Before that, he had 11 homers in two months.  After the sell, he had 10 homers in 4 months.  Before the sell, he had 16 steals.  In 4 months after, he had 18 steals.  .312 average before, .272 average after.  Yes, Rios was a huge performer for the year, but, in the final 4 months, he was just above average.  Sorry, I’m still bitter.  Preseason Rank #26, 2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22, Final Numbers:  89/21/88/.284/34

9. Ichiro Suzuki – This is one of those instances when I don’t buy into the rankings that ESPN is giving me.  Ichiro murdered you in three categories (Runs, HRs and RBIs), was great in steals (which are abundant) and was good in average.  It’s a’ight.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25, Final Numbers:  74/6/43/.315/42

10. Shin-Soo Choo – He really is the younger, Korean Torii Hunter.  He’s settled into this nice groove where he gives you exactly what you expect to see and that’s 20/20.  Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20, Final Numbers:  81/22/90/.300/22

11. Jayson Werth – Werth will be one of the most talked about value changes in fantasy next year depending on where he ends up.  I have this sinking feeling that he’s going to the Padres.  Or maybe the M’s will kill another hitter’s value.  Or maybe the Rays will replace Crawford with Werth.  One of the more compelling things I’m following.  Along with the new Real World/Road Rules Challenge.  Where’s CT and Tina?!  As for this year, Werth gave you more or less what can be expected of him.  No more, a little less.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18, Final Numbers:  106/27/85/.296/13

12. Vladimir Guerrero – Hello, Shoddy Knees, my old friend.  I’ve come to own you in fantasy again.  And it worked out, so there’s that.  Vlad was one of those players that I didn’t plan on owning in any leagues, but he was going for so ridiculously cheap in my drafts, I couldn’t help myself.  Thank you, Vlad the ’97 Impala.  Preseason Rank #1 for Utility Players, 2010 Projections:  70/26/95/.290/3, Final Numbers:  83/29/115/.300/4

13. Hunter Pence – This season, give or take a few homers and steals, will probably be what you’re going to get from Pence for the next three years.  It’s good, valuable, worthwhile, yadda².  But I don’t think you’re ever going to get 1st round value from him.  No 35+ homers, no .330 average, no elite Runs and RBIs because the Astros aren’t very good with no sign of that clearing any time soon.  Preseason Rank #34, 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15, Final Numbers:  93/25/91/.282/18

14. Angel Pagan – Only completely out of nowhere outfielder to crack the top 20.  Actually, that’s pretty impressive since I rank about 90 to 100 outfielders.  Would’ve been more impressive if you ranked Pagan. Thanks for clarifying, random italicized voice.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  80/11/69/.290/37

15. Krispie Young – In the preseason, I said, “If Krispie hits a third of his infield pop-ups for homers next year, he’ll hit 40.  And if I were 30 years old in 1760, I’d think Martha Washington was hot.” And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15, Final Numbers:  94/27/91/.257/28

16. Andrew McCutchen – Before the season ended, I was watching The Dread Pirate and thinking to myself, “This is a guy who is going to go 20/40 soon and be a top 5 overall fantasy player.  And I’m getting hungry.  Mmm…I could go for some Chipotle.  I’m gonna ask for more rice though.  I want to eat half my burrito and use the other half for a pillow when the food coma hits.  Wait, just because I was thinking this doesn’t mean I need to write it.”  Preseason Rank #35, 2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30, Final Numbers:  94/16/56/.286/33

17. Corey Hart – Here’s another guy in midst of this season that I told you to sell.  I’m not going to break down his pre- and post-Sell numbers, but I’m sure I came out on top again since he trailed off in the 2nd half.  I feel like Hart might actually be underrated a tad next year because I’m not sure people fully trust him.  I think 2010 is close to repeatable.  Some less average and homers and a few more steals.  Preseason Rank #45, 2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17, Final Numbers:  91/31/102/.283/7

18. Brett Gardner – I left Gardner unranked last year because when I ranked players in January, he didn’t have a full-time job.  The Yankee outfield was crowded and there’s was talk of a platoon.  Once Gardner got the job, I wrote about him in March as a cheap source of steals.  I don’t say this to defend myself, I’m trying to avoid the Random Razzball Commenter, “Grey sux!!!  Long live Matthew Berry!!!  Oh, and while I’m here, would you keep Gardner for 2011?”  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  75/4/38/.266/36, Final Numbers:  97/5/47/.277/47

19. Rajai Davis – Enter the SAGNOF portion of our program, which will be continued in the next post about the top 40 outfielders.  This is also where me and the ESPN Player Rater have major disagreements.  Steals are everywhere nowadays.  Steals are the new bacon.  I just got a steal and the season ended weeks ago.  I lost a sock in the dryer but pulled out 3 steals.  So, I think homers should be weighted higher than steals, which would move guys like Rajai down, but here we are.  Preseason Rank #40, 2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50, Final Numbers:  66/5/52/.284/50

20. Aubrey Huff – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.