Fantasy Baseball Advice

If you can’t find a high risk/high reward outfielder on your waivers right now, you’re just not trying very hard.  Sorta on topic, I feel like picking up the latest high risk/high reward hitter is like double dog daring your leaguemates.  You think picking up Snider is risky?  I just picked up Wladimir Balentien! Oh, yeah?  I’m grabbing Matt Diaz and Chase Headley!  *beads a sweat from random italicized voice*  Fine, I’ll grab Angel Pagan! As for Travis Snider, he’s still very young and raw like a nice piece of toro.  If you need pop, he’s worth a flier in all leagues to see if you can catch some lightning in a bottle, Thor.  Though he’s just as capable of striking out 30 times in the next month and batting .130 as he is of hitting 8 homers.  If your itchy for rookie nookie, go for it.  Just beware the rash.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Matt LaPorta – The MLP Package is on in Cleveland.  Now it’s up to LaPorta to make it watchable.

Drew Stubbs – Has great speed and BBQ.

Kyle Blanks – For power, you could do worse.  Fun fact about Kyle Blanks, every year for Halloween, he dresses as Michael Clarke Duncan and he wears no costume.

Julio Borbon – Great, terrific, wonderful.  All signs pointing to fantastic.  Could win Player of the Week.  Has a long way to go to being worthwhile for an extended period of time, but while he’s hot, grab him.

Carlos Gonzalez – We’re all gonna go blind if I keep flagellating Carlos Gonzalez.

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  I’m only mentioning him again, because he’s still only owned in 25% of ESPN leagues.  Even if 75% of ESPN leagues are abandoned… Wait, does that means he’s 100% owned?  Hmm… Color me confused.

Bronson Arroyo – He’s had one bad start since the All-Star Break.  That is all.

Billy Wagner – Lukewarm buy here.  If you really need saves, okay.  But he needs to not only get dealt, but he needs to end up on a team where he’ll be getting saves.

Mark Ellis – Picking up Mark Ellis and an orangutan couldn’t even get Jane Goodall’s nipples hard, but Ellis has been hot and he has 2nd base eligibility, so there.

Jeff Baker – I almost went with the title, The Fabulous Baker Boy and Jeff Baker as the lead.  Jeff Baker?  Boy, perhaps.  Fabulous?  Seems to be overselling him.  Wow, this is already shaping up to be a major sell on this buy.  So what can we expect of Jeff Baker?  He has great eligibility!  How’s that for a buy?  He has good pop that never fully materialized in Colorado.  So now it’s going to materialize? Yeah, I know what you’re saying.  He hit 20+ homers in his last full year of Triple-A.  He also has ten steal speed over an entire season.  Right now, he’s the Cubs starting 2nd baseman.  So if you need some pop from your MI slot, Baker’s worth a look.

SELL

Aubrey Huff – I didn’t like him at all in the preseason.  Then when he was terrible, I looked at his 2nd half splits.  Splits, indeed.  But like Biff Tannen, make like a banana.   I’m done ever liking him.

Brett Anderson/Trevor Cahill -  Way over their innings.  Beane needs to either shut them down or trade them for seven first round picks.

David Price – Another guy that’s pushing the limits of what a young pitcher should throw.  Murmurs say Sonnanstine will be taking over Price’s rotation spot in September.  Murmurs also say, the guy on Megan Wants a Millionaire is a murderer, but I really want to see the rest of the season.  C’mon, VH1!  This could be the best TV ever.  He goes to open a wine bottle and you try to imagine what he’s thinking about holding a corkscrew.

Ryan Doumit – I preach patience with catchers relying on the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method.  I’m going to make an exception for Doumit because he’s been terrible.  Even the Pirates have noticed his egregiousness and moved him down the order.  When the Pirates are moving guys down the order, it’s time to abandon ship.

Hiroki Kuroda – Regarding his concussion, he said through a translator, “The first two days I had a hard time sleeping and I even had a dream about getting hit.”  The translator was Nicole Kidman.  Weird!

Travis Hafner – At this point, the only advantage to owning Hafner would be to use his head to crack open walnuts.

The Tigers added Aubrey Huff to complement Jim Leyland’s puff.  When the Detroit Free Press hit the streets to find out what Tigers fans thought of this trade, they were met by mixed reactions.  Some fans asked for change, others shot at them. Huff should be added to the 1st base/DH mix with Carlos Guillen heading out to left field.  Huff’s value could go up a bit, but he needs to hit for him to have any value.  Best case scenario, he gets 8 homers over the next month and hits .330. Remember, that’s best, not realistic.  Marcus Thames’s value is hurt the most with the trade, but Thames is an estuary so he knows the importance of trading.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Nate McLouth – Was nursing a hamstring injury, then he started Saturday and aggravated it.  So now he heads to the DL for two weeks.  Terrific.  I’m so glad I own this schmohawk.  Can’t ya tell?  Aren’t I oozing with McLove?  He’s been a total waste for about two months now, but at least he was leading off and getting some Runs.  Now the only runs he’ll be getting are from Mexican food.  I officially hate McLousy.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday as he tied Pujols for the major league lead in homers for a millisecond until Pujols took the lead back.  Do people dare to draft Reynolds before David Wright next year?  I wouldn’t, but I’m beginning to think some will.

Max Scherzer – 5 IP, 9 runs, but only 3 were earned.  Ticker shock!

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  I mentioned Hanson yesterday in the rookie pitchers who might get shutdown thingamaboob.

Vladimir Guerrero – 2 HRs yesterday with 5 RBIs.  A fifth of his homers in one game.  Guess that stops his owners from taking a fifth of anything.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks.  As I said after his last start (I think it was last start, I write a lot of these), I like Ervin to a certain respect now.  He’s probably owned in your league because of his name, but if he’s not, he should be.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Joe Martinez – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Start everyone against the Mets!!!  Three exclamation marks for emphasis.

Justin Morneau – Left the game with dizziness.  No word on whether he’ll need a trip to the Dizzabled List.

Francisco Liriano – 2 IP, 7 ER.  Member that corner he turned last week?  Yeah, he turned the other corner and kicked your dog.

Tommy Hunter – 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  Much closer to the kind of games I expect to see from Tommy Hunter.  Still wouldn’t own him.  Maybe next year.  Later, Tommy Hunter, if that’s your real name.

Rajai Davis – You can call him Ray.  You could call him Jai.  You could him RJ.  Just say natural.  Either way, he just stole another base.  SAGNOF!

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 0 ER and a No Decision.  I love me my HodgePadres, but this might be why I’m struggling for Wins in every league.

Ted Lilly – 6 IP, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. Padres.  Was a gimme first start back, but that’s all right, they still count.

Matt Holliday – Fouled a ball off his toe in the ninth inning.  Still ran hard to first on the next swing, but then left the game.  I’m gonna guess they’re going to call this day-to-day.  (BTW, isn’t it weird how week-to-week is worse than day-to-day, but minute-to-minute is worse too?)

Stephen Strasburg – Signed with the Nats for over $15 million.  I’d pay him in pennies.  No rolls either.  Make that Viennese putz roll them himself.  I don’t think we see Strasburg this year and if we do, he’s not going to give you much of anything in one year leagues.

Ryan Doumit – 0-for-5, batting .222 on the year.  I’m all for the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method of dealing with catchers, but Doumit’s been awful.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-4 with a HR yesterday.  We all want something beautiful.  Man, I wish Garrett Jones was beautiful, but he’s still batting .226 vs lefties.

Lastings Milledge – 2-for-4, and a steal.  I think he stole second base off the Pirates reliever, Jesus Colome, simply to clarify what he meant in his Karaoke Revolution-aided, Cristal-fueled song, “Going To Second On Jesus Colome.”

George Sherrill was traded from the Orioles to the Dodgers.  Sherrill will backup Broxton.  If you play in a league with Holds, by all means.  If you don’t, you can lose him.  Okay, that’s that.  Now for the interesting part, who closes for the Orioles?  Personally, I think it’s going to be Jim Johnson.  I said him in last week’s Buy/Sell and he’s the same name I’m saying now.  Johnson’s been owning the 8th inning setup duties for a while now, though he’s also given up runs in 3 of his last 4 appearances.  So who else could it be?  Could it be Baez?  The answer my friend is blowing in the wind… Danys Baez was a donkey-corn back in 2005 for the Rays, collecting 41 Saves and posting a 2.86 ERA.  So he’s capable, but the Orioles seem likely to give Johnson the first shot.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – Suffered a setback. Backdate this news to the day after opening day.  Set him free, if it’s meant to be… Well, you know that line that your sister used to tell herself when a guy broke up with her.

Orlando Cabrera – Sounds like the Twins are going to end up with Cabrera.  This does little to his value.  Maybe a handful more Runs.  And that may be the only time you hear a handful of runs being a positive.

Alexei Ramirez – Sprained ankle and will miss a few games.  Hopefully this doesn’t turn out the same way Carloses Quentin/Beltran missed a few games.

Yunel Escobar – After being hit by a pitch, he’s day-to-day with a wrist contusion.  (I just made up the contusion part, but I sounded smart, right?  Don’t worry, I didn’t make up the day-to-day part.)

Ian Kinsler – Out two games now with a hammy problem.  You know who else had a hammy problem?  Kermit the Frog!  Oofa!  (Kinsler will be covered more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.)

Trevor Crowe – Was called up to replace Ben Francisco.  Someone gots the hate for Matt LaPorta.  Don’t ask me, I just report it.  Does it make sense?  Nope, not a whole lot.

Roy Oswalt – Astros are optimistic that Oswalt can make his Sunday start.  Guys who ride tractors in the offseason don’t miss starts with a tweaked back.  He reminds me of Shawn Michaels.  Keep bashing his back with a metal chair, but he’s still going to drop the big ‘bow.

John Grabow – Traded to the Cubs.  Grabow can stop salivating, he’s now a LOOGY.

Jason Hammel – 1 1/3 IP, 5 ER in Metco.  Hmm… He’s supposed to be good away from Coors.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Now that’s a Rockie pitcher away from home.

Clint Barmes – Hit his 14th homer yesterday.  Right now, you might be thinking to yourself.  Clint Barmes has 14 homers?  Yup, and he also has 9 steals.  Stephen Drew has 7 homers and 3 steals.  Jose Lopez has 13 homers and 2 steals.  Asdrubal 3 homers, 11 steals.  Barmes has been in a terrible funk lately, yet, on the season, he’s still been wildly more valuable than Uggla and about on par with Rollins.  Go figure.

Luke Hochevar – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Do you see what he does to you when you trust him?  Just give him a rest for this year.  I promise to remind you what a great prospect he is during next year’s preseason.

Aubrey Huff - 2-for-4, 3 RBIs.  Okay, so my Buy on him was maybe a month early, but hopefully this is the start of something.  God knows he can’t un-start any more than he has.

Johnny Cueto – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Since I made him a Sell on June 26th, he has a 7.61 ERA.

Tim Stauffer – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I’d still only start him at home, but nothing comes closer to home than a terrible Reds team.

Ryan Zimmerman – Is there no in-between button on this guy?  After being ice cold for two months, he’s now on fire with 4 homers in the last seven games.

Ben Francisco – Slight value while Victorino’s nursing his knee.  Okay, guess the fantasy baseball ‘pert, “I’d like to nurse from Megan Fox’s knee! Yowsers!”  A:  Matthew Berry

Rafael Soriano – 1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  Phew.  That’s good to see.  Hopefully, he held his breath and the hiccups are behind him.

Derrek Holland – 8 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Every time I try to get out of rookie pitchers, another one pulls me in.  I’m a big fan of Holland and he gets Oakland next.

Michael Young – 2 HRs and has 16 on the year while batting .326.  Great year that I didn’t see coming, but he hasn’t done this in 4 years, so no one really saw it coming.

Gavin Floyd – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks vs. the Yankees.  Let me guess, home start?  He has an under 3 ERA at home.  Imagine he was a Padre.  Zoinks!

Eugenio Velez – 3-for-5, Maybe feeling the heat from the Dirty Sanchez (who did not play yesterday), but Velez is scorching hot lately.

Matt Holliday – Homered for his new team. See, it’s all working out exactly how– Oh, the Cards lost.

Matt Thornton – Got the save opportunity, but again he was brought in in the 8th inning so again Ozzie can say technically he hasn’t removed Jenks from the closer role.  The bad news (or good news depending on who you own), Thornton blew the save.  Which might also confirm Ozzie’s noncommittal commitment to Jenks.

David Ortiz – I’ve pretty much kept to myself on the whole steroids issue.  Ya know, this is fantasy baseball, who gives an effin’ eff in the screwhole what I think, but Ortiz annoyed me.  He was one of the biggest critics of A-Rod when Rodriguez admitted to having his uncle’s cousin stick needles in his butt.  Ortiz also was “shocked” and “confused” about Manny’s use.  I’m shocked and confused how anyone thought Ortiz hadn’t used steroids.  Let’s assume everyone did steroids.  Even Greg Maddux.  Who cares?  Everyone did them.  Doesn’t matter.  Move on.  But what’s annoying is the talking out of both sides of his mouth.  To bastardize Madonna, Big Papi don’t preach.  I hope Manny says something like this, “Ya’ll knew I was doing some grimy shizz, but I’m shocked and confused to hear Ortiz’s giant melonhead is artificially enhanced.  Oh, and Ortiz is 52 years old.  Cust kayin’.”

Yesterday, I went over the top 100 for fantasy baseball in the 2nd half.  Today, I’ll look at some 2nd half hitters who should be better than they were in the first half.  To come up with this list, I scoured the last three years of post-All-Star Break numbers, ran it through a supercomputer that’s bigger than your Peugeot, pasted the supercomputer-generated names to my shirt like dollar bills on a wedding dress then went to a palm reader to help me pick ten names out of the thousands.  The palm reader’s name was Erica Karabell.  Tomorrow, I’ll go over the fantasy baseball pitchers who have been notoriously stronger in the 2nd half.  Anyway, here’s the best 2nd half fantasy baseball hitters for 2009:

Mike Napoli – Last year, he led the United States and Canada in OPS after the break for hitters with more than 100 ABs.  Vlad the ‘97 Impaler and Torii are both hurting, which will help Napoli see more time.

Alex Rodriguez – Everyone’s favorite frosted hair 3rd baseman.  Hit 24 homers in 263 ABs in the 2007 2nd half.  Hit 16 homers in 2008.

Jimmy Rollins – In 2007, he swiped 26 bags in the 2nd half.  Last year, Rollins had the third most steals in the 2nd half (23) behind only Taveras and Reyes.

Carlos Pena – 26 homers in 2007’s 2nd half.  17 homers in the 2nd half last year.  This year I say he hits 15 to give him 39 for the year.  Why?  Cause Pena seems like a 39 homer guy.  Yes, it’s that scientific.

Pat Burrell – In the first half of 2007, Burrell looked done — hitting .215 and only 11 homers.  In the 2nd half, he hit 19 homers and .295.  There’s very few cheap outfielders that can hit 20 homers in the 2nd half.  Burrell’s one.  And as any girl from the University of Miami in the late 90s will tell you, whereever Burrell is, Huff’s not far behind…

Aubrey Huff – Hey, it’s Pat the Bat’s fingercuff partner.  In 2007 and 2008, Huff had a .686 and .875 OPS in the 1st half, respectively.  Then .897 and .964 in the 2nd half.

Alex Rios – Did you know that after Pujols Rios hit the most extra base hits in the 2nd half last year?  Stephen Drew (<– Bonus name!) was third.  Both in front of Manny’s crazy, hormonal-fueled 2nd half.

Luke Scott – Career pre-All-Star break numbers .241/.329/.461 — Post-All-Star break numbers .299/.386/.558.  I see it now, next March someone in the comments is going to say, “I’m punting outfielders and taking Luke Scott late.  I’m awesome!!!”

Ty Wigginton – Honestly, not even sure if he’ll get playing time.  So I’m not saying trade for him, but if he’s on waivers, play close attention.  In the last three seasons, his 2nd half OPSs have been .990, .841 and .915, respectively.

Adam LaRoche – What’s Dusty Baker without a 1st base, 3rd base, hitting, pitching and bench coach?  What would a list of post-All-Star break hitters be without Adam LaRoche?  Nada, nada, nada damn thing…

Surprise, surprise, Canada’s number one export after Stubby Clapp is hurt, eh?  Erik Bedard takes his inflammed shoulder to the DL.  The Mariners say he’ll be fine to return on June 23rd.  If you were to read between the lines, here’s what you would see, “Please, someone trade us something for this pitcher that cost us Adam Jones, Sherrill and Chris Tillman.  Please!”  Man, Bill Bavasi really shit the Mariners house.  On top of the three guys mentioned, he traded away Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal, Carlos Guillen, Rafael Soriano, Matt Thornton and Randy Winn.  The top player he received back was Joe Borchard, who’s currently playing for the Fresno Grizzlies, the Giants minor league affiliate.  Forbes Magazine rated him the worst general manager in all of baseball in 2007.  No idea why Forbes is rating GMs, but that sounds pretty right on.  I’d expect Bedard to come back about two weeks after he’s supposed to then to hiccup and end up back on the DL.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Pedro Martinez – Close to signing with either the Rays or the Cubs.  Pedro on the Rays seems most likely.  I wonder if Fred McGriff and Wade Boggs took him out for an early dinner to convince him Tampa was a great place to end a career.  He’s worth a shot in 12 team leagues and deeper to see if he can recapture some of the glory days of carrying around a midget and dissing Karim Garcia.

Scott Downs – Downs Goes… Okay, I won’t bring it out again.   Early estimates say Downs could be out for 6 weeks.  Frasor’s the guy to go with, hopefully he’s not too persnickety.

Roy Halladay – Heads to the DL with his groin injury.  He says he’ll be back in a week and a half when he’s eligible.  I actually believe him.  Weird!

Ryan Braun – Left the game with back spasms.  Sounds like his usual shizz that sidelines him for a couple of days.

J.J. Hardy – HR yesterday.  Streaky like old lady hair.  Could be hot now.  (Welcome, Googlers, of “streaky” + hot old lady)

Trevor Hoffman – First blown save yesterday and has now given up runs in two of his last three appearances.  Not saying his goose is cooked, but he is old as dirt.  That’s old dirt.  None of that fresh peat stuff.

Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks, 6 baserunners and the loss.  I know, who doesn’t like to win?  But if I could every one of my starters throw that exact line all year, I’d take it and like it.

Adam LaRoche – 2 HRs in 3 days.  May sours, June swoon.

Andrew McCutchen – Aargh, thar she goes as The Dread Pirate went deep for his first homer.

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 4 ER vs. the Pirates?  Not sure if you’re going to see the Nats this year, Liriano.  Need to make something work, no?

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his third homer yesterday.  Who has more homers, Ellsbury or Pedroia?  I took him in the 2nd round for his position eligibility! No need to explain, random italicized voice.

Jorge Cantu – 2 HRs since the end of April.  Tailspin is not just a great song by The Jayhawks.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs yesterday, now has 16 on the year with 11 steals.  You better make it happen, Grandy.  Leyland really wants to work Don Kelly in the lineup.

Jose Lopez - 5 HRs in June.  Glad I gave up on him in May. /sarcasm

David Price – 7 IP, 5 ER.  Okay, but you shouldn’t have started him anyway, but at least there were no walks.  <–Bright side

Troy Tulowitzki – Another homer.  Member when I was telling you to buy Tulo in April?  Yeah, I was about a month early, but he’s here again.  Finalwitzki.

Aubrey Huff – HR yesterday.  If his first name were Jack or Kyle, you’d be excited.  Just hard to get excited about an Aubrey, I know.

Matt Wieters – Hit his first homer.  And you only had to hold him for 65 games.

Nick Markakis – 4-for-4 with his 2nd steal of the season.  I haven’t read this anywhere, but the Orioles must’ve put the child safety locks down on his running game.

John Lannan – 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Not a huge endorsement, but definitely serviceable in 12 team leagues.

Mike MacDougal – Got the save yesterday.  *pulling cord to release streamers and balloons on your head*  Woo-hoo!

Jay Bruce – Obviously he must’ve saw that he was out of a lot of fantasy lineups yesterday so he homered.

Chris Young – Now he’s avoiding the DL.  With the way he’s pitched this year, not sure if that’s good or bad news.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3 HRs in the last 5 games.  Will anyone pitch to Adrian?  Maybe not, but you can benefit from that with Kouz.

Denard Span – Heads to the Dizzabled List.  Member about twenty years ago when there was a crazy amount of no-hitters?  Everyone was throwing one, even Bob Milacki got in on the action.  Okay, so in twenty years from now there’s going to be something weird, like all outfielders’ jetpacks are malfunctioning and I’m going to say, “This is weird like twenty years ago when everyone was dizzy.”

Mark Reynolds/Adam Dunn – Both hit their 18th homers yesterday.  Donkey see, donkey do.

Scott Richmond – 8 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  You can mitch and boan about missing this start, but you shouldn’t have started him in Philly anyway.

Scott Rolen – Hit his 4th homer and stole his 3rd base yesterday.  Putting him on pace for a 9/7 year.  Yunel Escobar just laughed derisively at his projections.

Jayson Werth – Hit his tenth homer on Tuesday and yesterday he hit… 11.  C’mon, that wasn’t hard.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  71 strikes out of 99 pitches.  Sweet mother of pearl, take a pitch, Cubbies.  Since the Sox are terrible against righties and the Cubs are equally belchy vs. lefties, I thought this might’ve been a stalemate, but the Cubs’ belchiness won out.

Andres Torres – Please explain to me how he’s a leadoff hitter.  He’s a .270 hitter in 1000+ minor league games.  For those not in the know, 1000 minor league games is about 10 seasons.  Tenacity is not just a city in Jersey!