Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, I went over some fantasy baseball hitters to grab. Today, we look at some below the radar pitchers. (Of course, it depends on your league size on whether these schmohawks are above or below the radar. As that cliché goes, your trash is someone else’s wife.) If I were you, this would probably be a very helpful post for me. Why, Grey? Please explain. Okay, general reader of this site, I don’t draft pitching high in any league. My first pitcher off the board in one ‘pert league was Aaron Harang. Nuts, you say? Nuts indeed. And this was a fifteen team league, so you can imagine the slim pickings on waivers. Well, currently I’m at a 13 in ERA, 11 in WHIP and a 14 in saves. Wins have been a pain at 5.5 and I’m at 7 in Ks. (Honestly, I’ve seen that the least read posts on this site have been about the leagues Rudy and I are in, so I won’t bore you much longer, just bear with me.) So you’re thinking Harang first? Hmm… You must’ve had some kick-ass 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitchers off the board. 2nd pitcher was Rich Hill, 3rd Wainwright, 4th Edinson Volquez, then Chuck James and that’s it. Seriously, I should be in last place with that pitching staff. But I’ve ridden hard and put away wet Jorge Campillo, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Buerhle and an array of spot starters. Then very recently I traded for Big Z to try and close the Ks and Wins a bit. So, as you see, pitching can be had in deep leagues, you just need to know where to look. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball pitchers to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Jorge Campillo - Probably gone by this time, but I told you to get Campillo in May. If your trigger finger is like Don Knotts in The Shakiest Gun in the West, this is not my fault. (BTW, In the same post, I told you to stay away from VMart. Zapow!)

Jeremy Guthrie - Again, he’s probably gone by now, but I told you to get him when Rich Hill and Gallardo collapsed on May 4th.

Braden Looper - Bad July, but he’s been consistently good one month then bad for one month for the whole year. ERAs respectively from April — 3.86, 6.37, 2.92, 4.82 and so far 2.57 in August. Does this make any logical sense? Yours is not to reason why, yours is to start Looper and hope he drives in Pujols.

Gil Meche - When you look at his numbers in November, you’ll think about how his season wasn’t that great. Well, this would be true, but he can be good for two months in the middle of a lame season. He’s in the middle of those two months.

Ricky Nolasco - 13 K game the other day probably snatched him off of waivers in every league, but in case it didn’t, here’s Nolasco. Now who are you gonna call? Maroone!

Matt Garza - Has this every other start thing going where he’s good in one start then poor in the next. If he stays true to it, you can make it work for you. Stay true, Garza, stay true… And I’ll start you… There’s a country ditty for ya’ll.

SELL

Paul Maholm - This guy is showing up on a lot of people’s “I’m a ‘pert and I’m telling to get this guy” list. Phooey to them. It’s effin’ Paul Maholm, people! Unless I’m looking at him in an NL-Only league, I’m yawnstipated.

Jamie Moyer - He threw a pitch last week that just made it to the catcher.

Armando Galarraga - On my tombstone it will say, “I told you I was ill. And don’t pickup Armando Galarraga.”

Oliver Perez - Here’s the thing with Ollie Perez, he can absolutely wreck havoc on your ratios. Bah!

Jeff Karstens - Ha! Seriously. Ha! Here’s a rule of thumb for you, for those that like thumb rules: Pirates pitchers should not be picked up until they have shown they can pitch well for an entire year.

Nick Blackburn - His K rate is abysmal for the last month or so. I could list more reasons, but trust me, that’s reason enough to look away.

Aaron Cook - I told you I would warn you when I got out. Consider yourself warned, boyz!

Dave Bush - This is one Bush I will not have a hand in.

Armando Galarraga was perfect through 6 innings and, for fantasy baseball purposes, Galarraga has been solid all year, but that could all change by next week. No… Don’t deflate me! (Doesn’t that sound like a Coldplay song? Don’t deflate me… As we soar… Through the clouds…. Like balloons… I love Gwynnie…) Galarraga’s sporting a 3.2 BB/9, 6.10 K/9 rate and a .246 BABIP… Grey, numbers and old people scare me! Please. Okay, I’ll take it easy, but his WHIP should probably be in the 1.35 range vs. 1.20. So a lucky BABIP is disinfecting his WHIP. Masking the potential odor. He’s got a strong offense behind him so he might get his share of wins. Just don’t count on his peripherals remaining purdy. Armando Hammer may be from South America but don’t snort him….he’s baking soda. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Casey Kotchman - 5-for-5. If he doesn’t get some kind of kissing disease again from open-mouthing the rally monkey, this could be the start of a hot streak.

Jeff Mathis - Finally hot again. Only took him two and a half months. Eh, doesn’t matter to you, does it? Not like you need a catcher. You do? Oh, well, golly!

Howie Kendrick - 4-for-5. Okay, some of this Angels hitting can be attribute to a thin Indians pitching staff.

Mike Mussina - 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks. 13 Across, Mussina’s season co-hosted by Cathy Lee Crosby, “That’s _________!”

Shane Victorino - HR off Maine. Moves in front of Alexis Rios with his 7th HR.

Carlos Quentin - 2 HRs, up to 26. I know how you feel, it’s all icing at this point. I agree, but say you grabbed (HR-hitting OF who’s on waivers) and traded Quentin for a pitcher. So you have a pitcher and (HR-hitting OF who’s on waivers), who could have the same amount of home runs as Quentin from now until the end of the year.  Things that make you say, “Hmm…”

Chipper Jones - If I’m talking about him, what do you think happened? He’s not hitting .400, he didn’t home run… He was injured? Look at the big brain on Brad. Chipper says he won’t need the DL. Instead, he’ll just clog up your bench. Sweet!

Luis Ayala - Remained the 8th inning setup man and managed to tighten Hanrahan’s hold on the closer job by giving up 3 runs.

Jim Thome - HR yesterday. I feel like Thome’s bringing the potatoes and mashing them, but people are still calling him a turkey. In the last month and a half, he’s batted over .320 with 9 HRs and 18 RBIs. If everyone on your team was doing that, you’d be in first place asking for fanny kisses.

Tim Hudson - Elbow tightness, but word on the streets of Hotlanta is he won’t miss a start.

CC Sabathia - So if he gets 8 straight wins, he’s not going to win the Cy Young because stats don’t carry from one league to another. When was this rule put in place? Before the invention of the phonograph? There’s interleague now, you morons! Why are we counting those stats? This “no carrying of stats” can’t even be defended. There’s no one sitting around in a bow-tie (and really all of these baseball elitists wear bow-ties), saying, “By George, Randy Wolf can still win the Cy Young because he was traded within the same league, but CC can’t. We’ve really figured out a way to make our stats matter!”

Ricky Nolasco - He’s been too good thus far to bail this quickly, but he gets the Mets next. He’s either headed for another Zoinks! or a Rebound! I think we’re looking at a Zoinks! (BTW, Rudy picked up Nolasco for this start in our league. Greinke’d!)

Jarrod Washburn - Trade target for the Yanks. Guess they saw the Randy Wolf move by the Astros and didn’t want to be left out.

James Shields - He’s the mother sauce of a great pitching staff. Mother sauce, I tell ya!

Jason Bartlett - Will be activated on Thursday. He’s been on the shelf all month and he still has 18 steals on the year. It was a knee injury though, so use some caution, you.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Glad I just traded him so he could start to get hot. *sticking hand in blender like Chunk*

Billy Wagner - Got the save. That ends the Smith-Duaner-Heilman-Feliciano Experiment until Wagner’s next flare up. (Two weeks.)

Mike Hampton - Set to join Braves rotation next week. I bet a bunch of you went back to reread that. Mike who? Hampton what?

Adam Dunn - Grand slam yesterday. They should weigh all MLB players in Dunns. Allow me to demonstrate, “Eric Byrnes is a third of a Dunn,” “So Taguchi is 3 Dunn arms,” and “Mike Napoli is 4 Dunn legs and 7 Dunn sausage fingers.”

Well, screw you. That’s a great title. Are you kidding me? That’s like top five best titles you’ve ever read on this site. Maybe top three. What did you say, that’s more of an indication of this site’s bad titles than how good this one is? Ouch. So Maine probably shouldn’t have been in the ninth anyway, but Willie’s a player’s manager! Maine, for all intents and purposes (whatever that cliché means), basically throws a shutout with four Ks. The Ks could be better, but what’s important is what we can expect going forward? Okay, let me see what the future holds by pulling out my voodoo bloody rooster ala Angel Heart. (Instead of rooster, I almost wrote cock, but you can imagine why I was hesitant to write bloody cock. There’s some things you don’t joke about; a bloody cock is probably at the top of that list. In fact, I would go as far as to call it, The Bloody Cock List of Things You Don’t Joke About. On The Bloody Cock List of Things You Don’t Joke About: Never joke about sleeping with your friend’s sister. Never joke about your friend’s dead mother. Never joke about the weather (because it’s not funny). I’ll let you to decide what else should fill out The Bloody Cock List of Things You Don’t Joke About.) So going forward with Maine, I see fifteen more wins, a 3.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 150 Ks. Is that good? Um, yeah. Dur. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Joey Votto - Scott Hatteberg had this to say after the game, “Let’s see him walk three times in a game.” Was on the phone with a buddy when Votto hit the third of his three home runs, here’s what was said, “I think he can get to thirty.” “Years?” “No, home runs.” “Possibly, but Dusty might find a way to screw things up.” “Never underestimate Dusty’s ability to screw up anything.” “Are you still comparing Votto to a drug-free Hamilton?” *thinking* “No.”

Edinson Volquez - I’m not as excited about Volquez as I am about Cueto even though the fantasy numbers for Volquez couldn’t be much better at 5-1, 1.06 ERA and 62 Ks. His walks are way too high. I know, a quibble to some, but I would explore trade options before Volquez’s wake up call comes, um, calling.

Carlos Gomez - Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first day in the history of Major League Baseball that a rookie hit for the cycle and another rookie hit three home runs. (Actually, I made that up, but it sounds like something Elias would say. Whoever Elias is, they sure have a lot of time on their hands.) Big day for the rookies, as Gomez hit for the cycle. This was a great game for Carlos and I wish him the best, but I still think .260 is a pipe dream. You could do worse for the amount of steals he’s going to give you.

Jeremy Guthrie - I listed him as the top guy to replace Rich Hill or Yovanni Gallardo on teams. So far, I’m happy with that decision. He faced a team (da A’s) that was number three in the AL in runs scored and he performed decently. The fourth run was given up by Walker. Guthrie’s K/9 is fine and he really was only hit hard three times. He actually looked better than Blanton, who gave up less runs according to the box score. This is between the numbers, bitches!

Mila Kunis - Hot. (Oh, I’m sorry. I thought for a second I was Matthew “Creepy” Berry. But then I would’ve mentioned Crocodile Dundee II: The Search for More Bad Comedy. Oh, wait, I just did.)

Mike Jacobs - Hit a home run, but the umps missed the call and it went as a double. If the stupid Marlin fan would’ve just caught the ball, it wouldn’t have been an issue. Worse news, Jacobs left with an quadriceps injury. Hopefully, it’s nothing, because I need him on a few teams. And, really, this is about me.

Ryan Zimmerman - As previously stated, I’m not a Zimmerfan. Yesterday, he hit two home runs which gives you an opportunity to sell. Sorry to be a Bummerman.

Erick Aybar - I wonder if it irks Chone Figgins when he sees Aybar emulate ‘04 Figgins. Or if Figgins smells Aybar’s dirty jersey and it takes him right back to ‘04. Or if Figgins watches Vlad towel-snap Aybar as he exits the showers and Figgins sighs.

Cliff Lee - Looked absolutely tremendous. 6-0, ridiculous ERA that’s under one. So let’s say he ends the season with a 4.00 ERA, which is in line with his career numbers. That means he has a 5.00 ERA the rest of the way. You make the call! (In all fairness, his K/BB ratio is outstanding.)

Mike Napoli - Another home run. Not sure how many homers you need before it doesn’t matter that he’s benched every other day. A HR/8 ABs, in case you’re a nerd who needs stats.

Ryan Ludwick - Okay, so his fan club isn’t well attended, and his name sounds like a 17th century composer, but he just hit another home run. I keep touting that he’s headed for more playing time. Not sure if people are listening.

Armando Galarraga - For the last three weeks I’ve been saying, “Pull out!”

Chris Iannetta - Showed a great eye in the minors and decent pop, which turns into great pop in Coors. You could do worse in 2nd catcher leagues, NL-Only or deep mixed leagues.

Zach Greinke - The trade for Zach Saberhagen seems to be working out okay. If you get a chance, give Rudy crap in the comments. He loves that.

Adam Wainwright - A lot of my pitchers went last night. They all looked good. Running count: Maine 3 teams, Hudson 3 teams, Wainwright 3 teams, Greinke 2 teams, Volquez 2 teams, Wainwright 4 teams. Wow, Grey, you must’ve drafted pitching high? Actually, grasshopper, I don’t usually draft pitchers until the fifth round and Rich Hill was my second pitcher off the board in a lot of leagues. Wainwright, Hudson or Maine were my third pitchers, Greinke fourth or fifth pitcher and Volquez or Jurrjens were my fliers. Shawn Hill, Jo-Jo Reyes or Guthrie replaced Rich Hill on most of my teams. How does it feel to see behind the curtain, grasshopper? *you nod in awe* Okay, class dismissed.

I’m admittedly not a fan of rookie catchers. There’s not a long history of success, Piazza and… Um… Well… Benito Santiago. Granted in fantasy baseball, you don’t need a whole lot from a catcher for him to have a good year. But this is something you can work to your advantage. Rudy’s catcher projections for the BAO are 47/13/57/.273/2. (That’s Best Available Option from waivers, not a pork bun. The BAO is basically saying if you drop Posada, this what you’re probably going to get off of waivers.). Some close statistical fits: Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski. So if Geovany Soto gets you 67/25/87/.285/7 (which are unreal numbers, but I’m going with the ceiling for this experiment to prove a point), this puts you waaaaaay above the BAO for catcher. As I understand these honkytonk numbers, you are a plus 20/12/30/.012/5 from crap. And, by crap, I mean that’s if you pickup LoDuca, Estrada or Pierzynski. If you were to pickup Salty, and he gets better numbers than those three schmohawks, then you are ahead of the game. “What do I do with these geeky numbers, Grey? My eyes are bleeding!” Yeah, I know. I like to leave the numbers to Rudy, but I’m proving a point here. So if you have a glaring weakness, say your fifth OF is Luke Scott, you trade Soto for Torii Hunter and pickup Salty. Now the other guy’s psyched because he got Geovany Soto, who’s, like, better than gravity and can cure blindness, and gave you Torii Hunter, an aging outfielder. Well, if you paid attention, you just made your team better by trading Soto for Double I because the difference between Torii and Luke Scott is more than Soto and Salty. Soto would have to significantly outperform his projections to match the expectations of Torii. If you could get a reliable player who’ll fill a need, take it. Okay, here’s some more guys to buy and sell for your fantasy baseball team:

BUY

Wladimir Balentien - Wlad the Impaler got the call from the Mariners and I say he’s an immediate pickup in AL-Only leagues and worth a flier in deep mixed leagues. As with any flier, there’s plenty of risk so don’t drop anyone you might regret.

Chase Headley - No, he didn’t get called up yet. No, he’s not doing that well in the minors right now. Edmonds, which I believe is Slavic for injury-prone, is the only thing standing in Headley’s way.

Ian Stewart - I’ve already mentioned that Tulowitzki’s injury might force Atkins over to 2nd and Stewart into the bigs. I’d put that ‘might’ at about forty percent chance of a Stewart sighting. In fifteen team leagues and NL-Only, he must be owned now unless you want to risk missing him when he does get the call. In other leagues, ‘waiver’ at your risk, but when he gets the call he will be snatched up as fast as Jobacum.

Reggie Willits - If you need speed and Red Bull ain’t cutting it, here ya go. He’s supposed to be batting in the two hole going forward.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Three games a week are enough to show I care. (BTW, I hate The Beatles.)

Dioner Navarro - Anything goes when it comes to Navarro. (Love Big Daddy Kane.)

Randy Wolf - 37/11 K/BB ration is very good. Pitching in Petco is excellent. Cheap starters on waivers are priceless worth the guckin’ famble.

Scott Baker - Rare when I tout an AL starter, so, ya know, check him out. But be cautious, in his next start he gets the Tigers and he has a sore groin. (I really never thought I’d be writing ’sore groin.’)

Melky Cabrera - What, you don’t like 15/15 players? He gets there with ease. Sure, I just traded him away, but I also never touch a public bathroom door handle, you gonna do everything I do?

Santiago Casilla - I’ve had him on a team for about two weeks. 7 IPs/0.00/.90/9Ks Your starters can’t start every day. Why not boost your stats while they’re sitting?

Shane Victorino - People are starting to get annoyed with his slow start and lack of playing time. I say buy. Rudy just traded Capps for him. I think it’s a great trade.

Moises Alou - He’ll be back on Friday night. He’s an immediate add in deep leagues.

Robinson Cano - He won’t be a buy low guy for the entire season. You should try and steal him from someone.

Ryan Howard - He won’t bat under .200 for the entire season. He will hit 40 home runs. Go after him.

Rafael Betancourt - Sure, he’s blown a couple of saves, but Borowski isn’t good when he’s healthy. If you can get someone to throw-in Betancourt in a trade, do it.

Jeff Clement - He needs 5 starts or 10 games played. Started yesterday, there’s plans to start him again today. Kenji’s getting a “rest.”

Homer Bailey - If Matt Belise throws a game like he’s capable of, say, two and two-thirds innings with 7 runs allowed, Bailey will be up.

SELL

Brian Burres - Seems worth a pickup in a 30 team AL-Only league, anyone else should use extreme caution. Caveat emptor for those reading in Latin America.

Emil Brown - He’s sitting on 4 walks in a hundred at-bats. Francoeur has five walks. Emil simply had a good RBI month.

Armando Galarraga - *GEEKY NUMBER ALERT* He has an unsustainable BABIP. (Stands for Better Avoid Because I said Pho.)

Jayson Werth - Is he (pinkie to mouth) Werthless? No, but he’s not better than Victorino. He’ll be a faint memory in about a month.

Cliff Lee - I wrote in the comments on one of our posts, “His composite preseason numbers come out to about this: 12-8/4.68/1.43/130. That’s according to every noteworthy fantasy expert. Not simply us (we’re not that egotistical). Rudy goes over this stuff pretty in-depth, but you can start here for a primer. Does this mean Lee can’t breakout because no one saw it coming? No, it doesn’t. It just means there’s less of a chance.” And that’s me quoting me! If you can get Manny for Lee, I’d do it. (Which reminds me, whatever happened to Buddy Lee? I’m no advertising expert, but he was like the first cute advertising icon that wasn’t racist. He was a trailblazer. An icon. He stood for something — dungarees.)