Fantasy Baseball Advice

Latos Intolerable

April 19, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 640 Comments →

I watched Mat Latos yesterday.   Now I want an eye transplant with someone that watched Jamie Moyer pitch (not when he was first called up because that eye transplant would have cataracts).  I wish I could pinpoint what the problem is with Latos, besides looking terrible.  He was hitting 95 MPH on the maybe-a-tad-Reds-friendly radar gun for three straight pitches to Beltran.  Unfortunately, he threw all three friggin’ pitches in the exact same spot, so, of course, Beltran turned on one.  Then he made the next hitter, Holliday, look terrible with offspeed stuff.  Like a bachelorette order form, is there somewhere I can check for him to mix in the junk?  Does Mesoraco only have one finger on his pitch-calling hand?  Is Latos giving up early runs so Dusty can’t throw him into the 11th inning?  How do you even give up 5 earned runs in the first two innings on only 6 baserunners?  Is that even mathematically possible with only one two-run homer?  Why are you making me wrack my brain?  And why are you giving up a two out triples to the opposing pitcher?!  Latos gets the Giants next.  If he can’t make them look like a team that has only three hitters, and one of which they bench, then Latos is going to my bench for the foreseeable future.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Krispie Young – The MRI revealed a ligament tear and who wins this year’s Biggest Loser.  Damn you, MRI, and your spoilers!  Krispie’s headed to the 15-day DL and the Diamondbacks say he should be fine after a couple of weeks of rest.  With a ligament tear in his shoulder?  Sounds like they have a ligament tear in their silver lining.  This sounds like something that won’t only sideline Krispie for longer than 15 days but also leave him at less than 100% for the rest of the season until an offseason of rest.  It’s pretty terrible news.  Rico Suave should see the majority of the time in the outfield while Krispie gets himself right.  Parra’s pretty yawnstipating from a fantasy perspective for mixed leagues.  In NL-Only leagues, he should get you some counting stats.   (Wanna hear something that says so much?  I added yawnstipating to my computer dictionary.  It’s right there in my virtual dictionary next to dork.)

Justin Upton – Where is thumbkin?  Back from the MRI to say Upton needs a few days of rest with a bone bruise on his thumb.  He did get into yesterday’s game as a pinch runner.  Would be just wonderful if he had to slide head first.  Hope Kirk Gibson didn’t slo-mo arm pump that in-game move.

A.J. Pollock – 0-for-3 with a caught stealing.  How many players does it take to fill-in Krispie’s roster spot?  One Pollock.  He has good speed (36 SBs last year in the minors), but it’s not clear how much he’ll actually play.  Might just be a bat for a few days until Justin’s thumb stops being Upton no good.

Brett Gardner – To the DL with a strained elbow.  Huh?  What’s he running on his hands like Encino Man?  You don’t need an elbow to bunt and run.  Put your elbow in a sling and call it macaroni!  This kills my RCL team (well, Krispie’s loss kinda hurt that too), but how is there only one DL spot in the RCLs?  What were we thinking?  Guys (and 4 girls), talk some sense into me Charlotte sometimes, would cha please?

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Starts like these in The House They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is the reason why I told people to not draft him.

Lance Berkman – Puma reaggravated his calf injury and might hit the DL.  Coincidentally, my Cougar’s out for a day or two with shingles.

Carlos Beltran – 1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  That’s 5 homers and 3 steals.  Maybe he’s this year’s old player who comes out of nowhere and has a renaissance year.  How do we not have a term for this in the glossary?  Please suggest in the comments.  Thank you.

Brad Lidge – Davey Johnson revealed that Lidge suffers from vertigo.  Still waiting for Davey to choose a closer, or more accurately, to explain The Trouble With Henry.

Ivan Rodriguez – Announced his retirement.  Let’s remember the days when his nickname Pudge wasn’t ironic due to the banning of illegal substances that caused him to lose all muscle mass.  Pour some andro out for him.

Cliff Lee – 10 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I feel like a ten inning game is more rare than a no hitter. (I probably could find out if that was true at the ol’ Google.)  Through 10 innings, he threw 102 pitches and 81 of those were strikes.  Let’s just say, The Adverb was more than suffixient.

Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Lincecum who?

Matt Cain – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Bartolo Colon who?

Brian Wilson – Undergoing Tommy John surgery today.  They’re still evaluating whether they hairnet his beard or if they have to shave it.  If they shave it, the surgery is due to end on Sunday and the homeless family of Lilliputians will need to be relocated.

Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Walks really got him in this game…and the hits…and the runs…and the lack of Ks.

Mark Buehrle – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Of course he pitched a gem.  Why wouldn’t he?!  Why would I want this kind of start from Latos?!  I must be crazy!  Yeah, still a little annoyed at Latos.  And another thing, if Latos didn’t seem so detestable of a personality, I might be able to let it go!

Joel Hanrahan – Tweaked his Hanrahammy.  Should be good to go by the weekend.  In his place…

Juan Cruz – Guess who has more saves than Jordan Walden and Heath Bell combined?  I grabbed Cruz in one league, then dropped him when I had to fill in for Gardner.  Cruz may not see another save all year.  If you’re very desperate, then specloselate.  (On a related note, I thought of what we can call a top closer’s set-up man, a side salad.)

Grady Sizemore – Cleared for baseball activities.  He’ll probably pull his groin scratching himself.  I’m only half-punning.

Juan Francisco – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  The Braves are committed to Glass Chipper like Aguilera should be committed for eliminating Jesse Campbell, but Francisco’s a good name to watch in deep leagues in case he can get more playing time.

Jair Jurrjens – 4 IP, 4 ER.  Can the editor who recut Star Wars take Jar-Jar out of the Braves rotation too?

Dan Uggla – 1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his first homer.  Still wanna sell him for Skip Schumaker and a bag of Fritos?

Luke Scott – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 3rd homer.  Member I said last week to pick him up?  Yeah, nothing’s changed yet.

Matt Joyce – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 1 RBI and his 2nd game in a row with a homer.  If he’s gonna hit, it will be in the first half.  It’s Joyce to wit.

Justin Morneau – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 3 RBIs with his 3rd and 4th homers.  Only cussword his fantasy owners are hearing this year is refocused.

Matt Capps – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  Could he save a game without giving up a run?  Just a question.

Kevin Youkilis – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs with his first homer.  Youuuuuuuk, speaking through his agent, said, “Tell Valentine there’s his motivation.  And Sugarhill Gang invented the rap.  So there!”

Lucas Harrell – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Anyone with a rotation spot, you own in NL- or AL-Only leagues, so I grabbed Harrell in an NL-Only league.  Never looked at his stats.  Just grabbed him.  Then he pitched well yesterday for the second time in three starts and I was like, “Hey, this guy’s awesome!  I wanna see his minor league stats.”  So I Googled his name to see his minor league stats, and Googled asked me, “Are you sure you want to see his minor league stats?”  Yes, Google!  Give ‘em to me!  “Oh.”  That was my reaction after seeing his stats.  Um, yeah, I wouldn’t touch him in mixed leagues.

Aramis Ramirez – 2-for-4 with his first homer.  He’s alive!  I think.

Omar Infante – Out until Friday with a groin strain.  It happened when he was running away from Hanley carrying a bottle of hair dye.

Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer.  He’s batting .074 on the year.  To get results from Alvarez, the Pirates threatened him with a demotion to Triple-A or worse a trade to the Orioles.

Jake Peavy – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Yes, you should own him.  No, I’m not joking.

A.J. Pierzynski – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  When I say hot, you say schmotato.

Doug Fister – Felt renewed discomfort in his abdomen.  For Fister owners, that’s a punch to the gut.

Prince Fielder – 2-f0r-4, 2 RBIs and a steal as Major League Baseball tried to increase offense by moving 2nd base five feet from 1st.

Chase Headley – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and TWO HOMERS?  He had two homers the entire 1st half last year, and two homers the entire 2nd half for four (stutterer!) total.

Michael Cuddyer – Homered then left Wednesday’s game with a bruised toe.  If Cuddyer needs to miss time, guess who gets some time?  No, not Eric Young Jr.  Tyler Colvin.  Could be some pop there.  Keep your eyes peeled in deep leagues.

Juan Nicasio – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Eh, I’ve seen better starts.  Buehrle, for instance, that was better, but I’d continue to roll with Nicasio in most leagues.

Derek Holland – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Kinda wish I had Holland instead of Latos right now.  Okay, I’ll let it go.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 3-for-4, 3 runs, 1 RBI and a steal.  I’ve seen some people in the comments ask if they should pick up Kirk.  Don’t cheat, Razzballers.  Ask if you should pick up Nieuwenhuis.  If I gotta spell that shizz, so do you.  And, yeah, you should pick him up.  Kinda like how I’ve been saying that in the last two weeks of Buys.  Yesterday, he hit leadoff.  That probably won’t hold, but Bay’s name is short for Sickbay, as in he hasn’t been good in years, and Duda hasn’t had much zippity, doo or dah recently.

R.A. Dickey – 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  More like U.R.A. Dickey.

Grey & Rudy’s Drafts In The 2012 Razzball ‘Expert’ League

March 29, 2012 By: Grey / Rudy Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Our Leagues, Rudy Gamble 204 Comments →

As we mentioned earlier this month, we created an ‘expert’ league that follows the same rules as the Razzball Commenter League and will be included in the master standings.  Will the Expert League reign supreme (Iron ChefTM) in competitive index or will several RCL leagues put the experts in their place?  We shall see…

Here are the participants in the first annual Razzball ‘Expert’ League (links if they posted a draft review):

Razzball – Grey Albright
Razzball – Rudy Gamble
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens
FanGraphs – Eno Sarris
Hardball Times – Jonathan Halket
MLBTradeRumors.com/RotoAuthority – Tim Dierkes
Mastersball – Ryan Carey
Rotowire – Dalton Del Don
SI.com – Eric Mack
Steamer Projections – Dash Davidson

Here’s a link to the entire Draft Recap:

Grey:

As mentioned in our 2nd podcast, ESPN screwed me for messing with them for the last five years.  Right before my 1st pick, my computer crashed.  Here’s me during the draft.  “Hey, I have the 7th pick.  Awesome.  I’m gonna have a 1st baseman.  I might even get Votto.  I wonder who that lady is watering her lawn across the street.  Maybe I’ll stand up carefully to make sure I don’t knock over my coffee and get a better look–NOOOOOO!  Crap, mother-effin’, son-of-a-motherless-goat!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Okay, it’s rebooting… I have a minute and thirty seconds… Reboot!  DAH!  I drafted Robinson Cano!”  And then that dictated just about all my other hitter picks.  Since I had Cano, I couldn’t grab Kinsler, didn’t want a shortstop and the only 1st baseman or 3rd baseman within the vicinity was Tex and I wasn’t drafting him with my 18th pick.  So I took Giancarlo.  Then I really felt like I needed to make sure I had some sorta corner man so I reached for Zimmerman.  Not feeling totally comfortable with Zimmerman as my 3rd baseman, I reached for Hosmer for my other corner.  Then I felt like if Zimmerman got hurt again, I should have another 3rd baseman, so I grabbed Aramis, then I realized later on that Aramis wasn’t a clean bill of health either so I grabbed Chisenhall.  Then I dropped Chisenhall when he was demoted and grabbed Smoak for the two game Japaning Day, then, when those games ended, I grabbed Eric Thames.

I may have 5 aces when it’s all said and done.  I wouldn’t even need Gio on this staff, but he fell so far down that I wasn’t going to let him go.  I’m not worried about saves, even if my closers are little iffy.  SAGNOF!  Since I had Cano and Hosmer, I took some guys that may be average drains, but should give steals and power.  Though, I do think average will be one of my biggest concerns.  In true Grey fashion (I love to pick up and drop players and talk about myself in third person), I’ve already made a few moves on pitching too.  Dropped Fuentes (right after Balfour became the closer) and grabbed Bourgeois.  Bourgeois is the kinda of guy that if he sneaks into a large playing role or if I switch him in only when he plays, he could get me 30 cheap steals.  SAGNOF!  I dropped Stauffer and grabbed Lidge when Storen was hurting (Clippard was drafted) and dropped Crain for Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a bit of a shizzshow, but, in some ways, I like to be able to juggle my last roster spots so I don’t care I wasted a pick on Chisenhall, Fuentes, etc.  Rudy gets a lot more tied to his drafts than I do.  In the end, I think I still have a solid team.  By the time you read this, I may have made three more pick-ups and drops.

Grey’s RCL Draft
Position Player Round/Pick
C Geovany Soto R23 Pick 271
1B Eric Hosmer R4 Pick 42
2B Robinson Cano R1 Pick 7
SS Zack Cozart R17 Pick 199
3B Ryan Zimmerman R3 Pick 31
OF Giancarlo Stanton R2 Pick 18
OF Brett Gardner R6 Pick 66
OF Krispie Young R7 Pick 79
OF Alex Rios R14 Pick 162
OF Peter Bourjos R19 Pick 223
1B/3B Aramis Ramirez R8 Pick 90
2B/SS Aaron Hill R16 Pick 186
UTIL Lonnie Chisenhall R24 Pick 282
SP Madison Bumgarner R5 Pick 55
SP Mat Latos R9 Pick 103
SP Anibal Sanchez R11 Pick 127
SP Gio Gonzalez R12 Pick 138
SP Mike Minor R15 Pick 175
SP Jake Peavy R20 Pick 234
RP Jose Valverde R10 Pick 114
RP Huston Street R13 Pick 151
RP Matt Capps R18 Pick 210
Bench RP Brian Fuentes R21 Pick 247
Bench RP Jesse Crain R22 Pick 258
Bench SP Tim Stauffer R25 Pick 295

Rudy:

At this point in the draft season, I’m starting to get predictable in my early round draft behavior.  I was really happy picking 10th with the confidence that either Joey Votto or (more likely) Adrian Gonzalez would fall to me and I wouldn’t have to worry about overpaying for a 1B later in the draft.  As luck should have it, Grey’s computer crashed and he auto-picked Robinson Cano vs. his preferred Joey Votto pick who came gift-wrapped to me at #10.   Longoria was an easy choice at #15 as I figured there would still be top SPs on the board by the time I picked next at #34.  The experts were more aggressive than I figured at drafting SPs however as Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lee, F-Her, and Lincecum were all off the board.  Luckily, I liked Greinke slightly more than F-Her and Lincecum.  But I also liked Jay Bruce for this pick and, in retrospect, probably should’ve gamed Greinke was the more likely of the two to make it me at pick #39.  Hunter Pence was the consolation prize.

I spread out my SP selections and seemed to have a lot of success nabbing K-friendly pitchers (Lester, Beachy, Morrow).  I specifically drafted Lewis and Nolasco in later rounds because of their solid WHIPs (which help balance out Morrow).  For the first time in years, I drafted the first closer off the board (Kimbrel – 6th round/63rd pick) as the value was too great given his obscene K-rate.  Marmol and Putz came at decent values at Rounds 11/12 and I was glad to be done with closers before a closer run occurred (10 closers went in the next 33 picks after Putz).

As for offense, I just drafted for value and was able to avoid inadvertently punting AVG or SBs.  I reached for Jose Altuve whom I think has 30 SB upside with solid AVG and, like several of my teams this year, got solid R/RBI value out of my other MI spots (Alexei Ramirez, Neil Walker).

All in all, this was about as good of a draft as I could’ve hoped for.  I don’t think my team has any major weaknesses and hopefully my team has good injury karma.  It’ll be interesting to see how well I do in this type of format (12 team, daily changes) – especially without Grey as co-manager

Rudy’s RCL Draft
Position Player Round/Pick
C J.P. Arencibia R23 Pick 274
1B Joey Votto R1 Pick 10
2B Jose Altuve R13 Pick 154
SS Alexei Ramirez R10 Pick 111
3B Evan Longoria R2 Pick 15
OF Hunter Pence R4 Pick 39
OF Shin-Soo Choo R7 Pick 82
OF Drew Stubbs R8 Pick 87
OF Jeff Francoeur R16 Pick 183
OF Colby Rasmus R18 Pick 207
1B/3B Gaby Sanchez R17 Pick 202
2B/SS Neil Walker R14 Pick 159
UTIL J.D. Martinez R20 Pick 231
SP Zack Greinke R3 Pick 34
SP Jon Lester R5 Pick 58
SP Brandon Beachy R9 Pick 106
SP Brandon Morrow R15 Pick 178
SP Colby Lewis R20 Pick 226
SP Ricky Nolasco R21 Pick 250
RP Craig Kimbrel R6 Pick 63
RP Carlos Marmol R11 Pick 130
RP J.J. Putz R12 Pick 135
Bench RP Mike Adams R22 Pick 255
Bench RP David Hernandez R24 Pick 279
Bench OF Denard Span R25 Pick 298

Top 20 3rd Basemen for 2012 Fantasy Baseball

January 24, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 62 Comments →

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go shortstops, third basemen, catchers, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the catchers and 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really wanted a top 3rd baseman and punted Jose Bautista while targeting Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, which taught me a valuable lesson.  I’m a moron.  (A very hurtful lesson, mind you.)  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – UPDATE:  OUT FOR THE YEAR You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

Miller Park To Smell Like Stale Beer, Aramis

December 13, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft 69 Comments →

The Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to a deal worth between $34-37 million.  Wouldn’t you love to make so much money that there’s a gap of three million between what you might make?  “Hey, Aramis, you got a second?”  “I was just rolling up hundred dollar bills to make kindling.”  “Just wanted to see if you’ll take a deal for somewhere between $34-37 million.”  “There’s a three million dollar gap there.  That gap is more money than some people make in their lives.  Yeah, I guess I’ll take it.  If I make $37 million, I’ll be able to light more fires.”  I make between three and four dollars daily from Razzball.  I have a one dollar gap!  I want a three million dollar gap!  Inner monologue, “Breath, Grey, breath.”  Okay, sorry, my chakras need alignment.  So Aramis goes to the land of cheap beer and Laverne & Shirley on the heels of the Brewers about to lose their two best hitters — Prince Fielder and Craig Counsell.  Sorry, their two best non-cheating hitters.  Eh, the Cubs last year looked like they couldn’t hit soup if they fell out of a boat that was floating on top of a giant vat of soup, and Aramis hit just as well as he usually does.  At 34, he’s not going to be less injury-prone and there’s no way he’s ever hitting 30 homers again.  He is, however, a professional hitter when healthy.  (Don’t you love when I interrupt sentences with “however?”  Makes me sound so smart!  Even when “however” is interrupting a trite claim like someone’s a professional hitter.)  I’d give Aramis a line of 75/25/95/.295.  Anyway, here’s some other offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Casey McGehee – Traded to the Pirates or as I like to call it, “Make room for Mat Gamel!”  The camera pans to Gamel for his reaction and he’s fumbling his drink.  What a klutz.  McGehee was always utility man-ish before his breakout in 2010, then he went right back to crizzap in 2011.  I’m not buying into McGehee in 2012 in Pittsburgh either.  Maybe he can go to the plate while the remix plays, “Blech and Yellow.”

Mat Gamel -  No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.

Trevor Cahill – Heads to the Diamondbacks.  Even if his new ballpark is slightly more favorable for hitters, he’s got a solid sinker and he’s going to be facing the Giants, Padres and Dodgers, the Moe, Larry and Curly of lineups. I didn’t like Cahill at all the last two years, but I’m willing to reevaluate.  I’m not stubborn.  *through clenched teeth*  Fine, he looks draftable now!  Are you happy?  I’ll give him a line of 12-10/3.60/1.35/160.  It’s not exactly Lincecum numbers, but a solid fantasy number three.

Jarrod Parker – Went to the A’s.  Our prospect writer, Scott, recently said, “After missing 2010 to Tommy John surgery, Parker threw 131 innings with Mobile in 2011, plus one start with the big club.  With a plus slider and a plus change to compliment a fastball that touches 100, I’m surprised that Parker’s 2011 K% (20.4%) wasn’t more impressive.  Solid mechanics and ace-type stuff should help Parker get back on track and earn a starting role in 2012.  Or at least that’s what Joy Behar told me when she came to me in a dream.”  Hmm… Didn’t remember reading that last part before.  I agree with Scott about the K-rate and his arrival.  Both things also have me perplexed.  His K-rate is okay, but not great, yet everyone’s saying he’s going to be a number one and be in the A’s rotation this spring.  When everyone says something with such conviction about a prospect, but I’m not seeing it in the stats, the first thing I think is it’s all about the scouting reports.  With Parker, this holds true.  But I thought Billy Beane didn’t listen to scouts?  You lied to me Hollywood!  People who have watched Parker pitch extensively think he’s back even if the numbers don’t tell the same story.  The biggest concern right now for him is his health.  He’s even cut back on using his slider that was once a nasty pitch.  Nasty as in good, not nasty as in bad.  The positive news, and reason why I’ll be drafting him very late, Tommy John recipients usually take about a year and a half to get back to full strength, which is where Parker will be in 2012.  In that huge park in Oakland, I could see a line of 10-8/3.80/1.28/140 in 160 innings.  Unless the actor playing Scott Hatteberg and Royce Clayton sign on to coach Parker, then he can win the Cy Young, cure world famine and get Lindsay Lohan’s career back on track.  If Parker starts the year in the minors, then I’ll just look at him in keepers.

Tony Gwynn Jr. – Dodgers signed him to a two million dollar deal.  Dodgers are answering their offseason question marks emphatically with ellipses.

Top 20 3rd Basemen, 2011 Fantasy Baseball

October 17, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 35 Comments →

Top 20 catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen for 2011 are in the books.  We continue around the horn (that means we’ll go back for the shortstops; don’t ask, I was getting fancy) bringing us to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.   This year 3rd base gave most of you the gas face.  For the most part, you were lucky if you didn’t draft a top ranked one cause most of them bombed.  I mean, Emilio Bonifacio is a top five 3rd baseman?  That’s an eff in the coolie if I’ve ever heard one.  Zimmerman, Longoria, Wright?  Made you look smart in opposite world.  Also, to recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Jose Bautista – A very wise monkey once said, sometimes when you go out on a limb, the branch breaks.  To use limb in another sentence:  I don’t think it’s much of a limb when I say Bautista was my biggest snafu since I started this blog.  I really didn’t believe him at all.  The kicker was usually when I Mr. Bungle a player as bad as I did with Bautista, Rudy will correct me, but he punted Bautista too, so I wasn’t even counterbalanced.  I can’t say this for sure, but it seems like most ‘perts don’t give a flying elbow if they make right or wrong calls, but I will say Bautista taught me one thing.  I don’t like being wrong; it really annoyed me that I mucked him up.  Now watch next year when I project him for 40 homers, he’s gonna hit 12 and make me into a Mr. Bungle once again.   Preseason Rank #12 (Yes, I was that much a non-believer; I had Pedro Alvarez above him.  I will now eat an apple laced with cyanide.), 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5, Final Numbers:  105/43/103/.302/9

2. Michael Young – Went over Young in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

3. Adrian Beltre – I was pretty accurate with my mid-tier 3rd basemen preseason ranking.  Beltre, Young, Reynolds, Alvarez, Aramis and McGehee turned out as I thought they would, minus McGehee and Alvarez, obviously.  Unfortunately, I ended up with Alvarez and McGehee on more teams than I care to admit.  Alvarez, in particular, killed me.  This, however, is supposed to be about Beltre.  As soon as he signed with the Rangers, any trepidation I had went out the window.  Man Standing Outside My Metaphorical Window, “Stopping throwing trepidation on me!”  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers:  82/32/105/.296/1

4. Aramis Ramirez – Here’s one way to look at how pee poor the 3rd basemen were.  I pretty much nailed Aramis’s projections with his final numbers and I ranked him 11th and he finished 4th.  That, more or less, means seven 3rd basemen bombed.  Also, more or less should be one word.  Moreorless — doesn’t that look better?  You’re welcome, English language; I’m fixing you.  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280, Final Numbers:  80/26/93/.306/1

5. Emilio Bonifacio – There’s nothing I can say that will illustrate how bad the 3rd basemen are that can’t be said by just seeing how high Bonifacio ranked here.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  78/5/36/.296/40

6. Jhonny Peralta – After looking like a lock for 20+ homers and a .270 average back in 2008, he wrestled with major league pitching like I wrestle with his superfluous H.  Due to some luck, his average was about 20 points too high, but everything else seems right in line with what he can do.  He’s ranked this high because 3rd basemen sucked this year.  Have you heard that before?  Yeah, thought so.  Preseason Ranked #16 for Shortstops, 2011 Projections:  65/17/80/.255, Final Numbers:  68/21/86/.299

7. Pablo Sandoval – In the preseason, I compared him to an in-his-prime Lyle Overbay.  Still sounds about right.  Before you scoff, scoffer.  Lyle Overbay’s best year 82/22/92/.312/5 was better than this year by Sandoval.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3, Final Numbers:  55/23/70/.315/2

8. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds in the top 20 1st basemen post.

9. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

10. Evan Longoria – I may still rank Longoria in the 1st round next year.  Absolutely nothing changed for him except his luck fell off the map.  If it wasn’t for bad luck, he would’ve had no luck at all.  His K-rate actually went down, his walk rate went up, his HR/FB% stayed where it should be.  I may even pick him to win the MVP next year.  I will probably say some variation of the preceding a dozen times this offseason, so if you missed this, don’t worry.  And if you read the preceding, forget it so it seems fresh the next twelve times I say it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/33/115/.280/10, Final Numbers: 78/31/99/.244/3

11. Edwin Encarnacion – On one hand, I can’t believe Encarnacion ranked this high.  On the other hand, it’s more of an indictment of the 3rd basemen because his numbers don’t look that good.  On a third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on the end of a broomstick, he was valuable in the 2nd half of the year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/17/55/.272/8

12. Chipper Jones – He didn’t go unranked in the preseason because I overlooked him.  He was coming off a year when he nearly retired from injuries.  In fact, I think he did retire then decided to come back, if I remember it correctly.  Whatever.  Glass Chipper hits when he’s healthy but that ‘when’ is the size of King Kong Bundy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  56/18/70/.275/2

13. Alex Rodriguez – It totally bit me in the ass saying I wanted a 3rd baseman in the first two rounds of last year’s drafts.  3rd base was my cross to bear, or bare if you’re a nudist.  A-Rod, Wright and Zimmerman were off the charts terrible.  Sure, A-Rod had the decency to get injured so you could replace him, but who were you replacing him with?  Wilson Betemit?  David Freese?  Bleh and Belch.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  90/32/110/.280/7, Final Numbers:  67/16/62/.276/4

14. Kevin Youkilis – It’s easy to say this was an off season for Youuuuuuk, but, at age 32, this could be the beginning of the end.  This is the third year in a row that he’s failed to top 136 games and the 2nd year in a row he didn’t hit 20 homers.  On a side note, here’s what I said in the preseason about Youk, “Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day.  …Do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x?  I wouldn’t.  Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder?  Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier?  And this is only one tier down.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Sure, that was about 1st basemen, but it mentioned Youk so I included it here.  Sue me for your zero dollar subscription fee.  Preseason Rank #8 for 1st basemen, 2011 Projections:  95/27/95/.300/5, Final Numbers:  68/17/80/.258/3

15. David Wright – It wasn’t just that the 3rd basemen were bad this year, but it was worse than that.  The good 3rd basemen weren’t just less good so you still got some draft value.  Across the board, 3rd basemen killed you.  For the first time, I felt like Wright didn’t care either.  I get it, you can go 1-for-4 with a run.  How about you hit a home freakin’ run?!  I think Metco is in his head too.  If the Mets move the fences in only one foot, but told him they moved the fences in thirty feet it would have the same impact on his power.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  95/30/105/.285/17, Final Numbers:  60/14/61/.254/13

16. Daniel Murphy – Went over Murphy in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

17. Albert Callaspo – Was about as steady a performer as you can find with his 3 homer, 3 steal 1st half and 3 homer, 5 steal 2nd half.  This was an illustration of how being steady isn’t always a good thing.  Callaspo may have to replace Polanco in the yawnstipating definition.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  54/6/46/.288/8

18. Ryan Zimmerman – If a player’s season can be summed up by the company he’s keeping on the year-end rankings, look at the players around Zimmerman.  Callaspo’s above him!  Daniel Murphy had a better season than Zimmerman and he stopped playing on August 7th!  I’d say 2011 was a step back for Zimmerman, but it was more like a step back, then he fell into a ditch, then someone popped a squat above him and crapped on his head.  On a side note, I’m way off on a lot of these 3rd basemen projections, but I guarantee you all ‘perts are off with these guys.  No one could’ve told you Wright, Zimmerman, etc would’ve been this bad.  I only mention this because I think it’s ridiculous some people charge for their projections.  I could pretty much tell you what any player is going to do assuming their healthy, barring a few here and there like Bautista.  But guys like Bautista are me going on a limb.  I could’ve told you 35 homers and a .280 average like everyone else and been less wrong, but what fun is that?  Now someone help me down from my soapbox.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  90/32/100/.285/5, Final Numbers:  52/12/49/.289/3

19. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

20. Chase Headley – If you ever wondered to yourself whether or not 3rd base was really as bad as it seemed this year, notice Chase Headley making the top 20.  Then notice he had 4 home runs on the year.  He only hit one homer at home all year.  All year!  On the positive side, he outperformed Casey McGehee.  Recurring Theme, “The third basemen were really bad this year.”  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7, Final Numbers:  43/4/44/.289/13