Fantasy Baseball Advice

Catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops for 2009 have been accounted for.  Up now, the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.   Lots of surprises in the top 20 for 3rd basemen.  On top, Mini-Donkey, Figgy, Longoria and Kung Fu Panda, which sounds like an anime cartoon that has a 75% chance of giving you a seizure.  (BTW, anyone ever watch anime?  It’s about giant robots that want to be loved.  That shizz is depressing.)  Then when you get to around the halfway mark-o, the drop off is precipitous. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Mark Reynolds – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  75/31/100/.255/7, Final Numbers:  98/44/102/.260/24

2. Chone Figgins – He’s actually right in line with the stats I predicted for him in the preseason.  So I knew exactly what he’d give you/me and I ranked him 15th.  This seems like crazy talk from a mental patient.  I’ve said it before, I’m obviously about to say it again.  I don’t like owning steals at 3rd base.  It puts you at a major disadvantage in the power department.  If you get 5 homers from your 3rd baseman, you better have Utley, Hill or Tulo giving you major power from your middle infield spots.  And, even then, I’d prefer to get 40 steals from a waiver wire pickup like Rajai Davis.  Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35, Final Numbers:  114/5/54/.298/42

3. Evan Longoria – He was right in line with my preseason predictions, but for some reason his season felt disappointing.  Not disappointing where he would be dropped in rankings for next season.  Not disappointing where he actually performed below expectations.  Disappointing in that he didn’t completely blow away expectations.  Kinda like how I felt after watching the first two seasons of Mad Men on DVD.  Solid, but wasn’t it supposed to be even better than that?  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7, Final Numbers:  100/33/113/.281/9

4. Pablo Sandoval – Went over him in the top 20 Catchers post. Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

5. Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman could’ve easily fell into the Alex Gordon, Delmon Young class with a poor season in 2009.  Luckily for him and his owners, he finally took the next step with his power.  Unfortunately, somewhere between Jim Bowden riding his Segway out of town and the Nats having another terrible season, Zimmerman stopped running.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7, Final Numbers:  110/33/106/.292/2

6. Kevin Youkilis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5, Final Numbers:  99/27/94/.305/7

7. David Wright – If I would’ve told you in March that you’d get 27 steals from Wright, I imagine you would’ve been over the moon, or whatever that old-timey expression is.  In 2009, Wright pulled his best impersonation of Alex Rios circa 2008.  Numbers aren’t necessarily terrible.  They’re just not at all what you expected.  If you wanted 10 homers and 25+ steals in the first round, you would’ve taken Victorino with the third pick of the draft.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  110/33/120/.310/14, Final Numbers: 88/10/72/.307/27

8. Alex Rodriguez – A-Rod ended giving a lot more steals than I thought he would.  Now, for the first time in a long time, he might actually be underrated going into next season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4, Final Numbers:  78/30/100/.286/14

9. Michael Young – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops post.  Didn’t have 3rd base eligibility in the preseason so was unranked.  2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

10. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Chris Coghlan – Knowing I’m against Figgins as your third baseman, you can imagine how I feel about Coghlan.  The fact he ranked so high on this list really tells you all you need to know about the state of the hot corner.  If you take nothing away from this, know you want a 1st baseman in your corner infidel spot, not a 3rd baseman.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

13. Jorge Cantu – This was a classic terrible season that can absolutely kill your team.  I’ll explain.  You watch him come out of the gates in April on fire (7/22/.365).  You’re aware that he hit 29 homers the year before.  You’re psyched.  You just drafted Cantu later than most and now he’s going to have a career year.  May comes, he’s bad.  You know he’ll get better because April was so good.  June comes and he’s hitting for average again, but no pop.  You’re starting to get worried.  Was April a fluke?  July comes and he hits for average and still no power.  You’re officially sick of him.  August comes and the bottom falls out.  Finally, you’ve had enough.  You drop him.  Then, in September, he hits again on someone else’s team.  Finally, you find out Cantu impregnated your sister.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5, Final Numbers:  67/16/100/.289/3

14. Scott Rolen – Member back in the day when 85/20/95/.285 were “Injured Scott Rolen” numbers.  Well, get a load of what “Healthy Scott Rolen” numbers look like now…  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  76/11/67/.305/5

15. Casey Blake – When I went back to see where I ranked Blake in the preseason, I was actually kinda surprised I didn’t.  I think what happened was I started figuring out his predictions then I fell asleep.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/18/79/.280/3

16. Alberto Callaspo – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Russell Branyan – Here’s a guy that is the exact opposite of Jorge Cantu.  He gave you all the stats you needed from him then went to the DL.  Preseason Unranked, though he did appear in the first Buy/Sell of the season listed as a Buy.  Then he appeared in a late summer Sell column right before he disappeared into the abyss.  Net-net, natch.  Final Numbers:  64/31/76/.251/2

18. Mike Lowell – In January, I said, “‘Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.”  And that’s me quoting my trepidation!  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275, Final Numbers:  54/17/75/.290/2

19. Chipper Jones – This was the year the Glass Chipper shattered.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5, Final Numbers:  80/18/71/.264/4

20. Aramis Ramirez – Not only did the two month DL stint murder his numbers, but even when he returned he didn’t always look like himself.  I blame Milton Bradley.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295, Final Numbers:  46/15/65/.317/2

Yesterday, Shane Victorino went 4-for-5, 4 RBIs, 5 Runs scored and his 6th homer.  For anyone who read the roundups last year, you’re probably wondering where my Victorino love went.  Last year, Victorino was my ‘09 Mark Reynolds.  I saw good value in Victorino last year and pushed him on everyone.  Unfortunately, he met expectations, performed well, his value skyrocketed and I don’t have him on any team this year.  This will be the story next year when I rarely mention Reynolds.  I won’t own him because he’ll be drafted too high in 2010.  Alas, the story of the fantasy baseball ‘pert.  Your loves are forever changing.  One year Jeremy Guthrie, the next year Wandy Rodriguez.  Behind the ’stache lies a fickle man!  But I still gots love for Victorino.  My only concern is how low his steals are this year.  Sitting — literally — on 13 steals.  So run.  You’re The Flying Hawaiian for a reason, not The Taro Masher, poi!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Howard – The Phils scored 22 runs.  Howard went 1-for-4, no Runs and one RBI.  Ticker Tease!

Jimmy Rollins – 3-for-4, 1 RBI, 4 Runs scored.  Batting near .400 in July.  Let’s not call him fixed yet, but we’re heading in the right direction.

Jayson Werth – Hit his 17th homer yesterday and drove in his 46, 47, 48, 49 and 50th RBIs.  Have I mentioned the Phils scored a lot of runs yesterday?

Cole Hamels – 7 IP, 1 ER, only 2 Ks.  A start against a team that isn’t scoring many runs and is down ten runs after the first inning is a nice place to be pitching from.  This could be the confidence boost Hamels needs moving forward.

Johnny Cueto – 2/3 IP, 9 ER.  The pimple-faced teenager tried to warn you.  I’m thinking it might be hard to Sell him now.  I wouldn’t panic and drop him out of spite.  He won’t be this bad the rest of the year.  In fact, he gets the Mets in Metco next.

Paul Janish – In relief he went, one inning and gave up 6 runs.  He still pitched better than Cueto.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday.  Reds face four lefties this week.  Play the matchups, dear Razzball reader.

Randy Johnson – Hit the DL with a case of Old.

Kevin Slowey – He has a strained wrist.  This was the best case scenario.  No, that’s not right. Best case scenario would be he’s healthy… Actually, best case scenario is he was healthy and pitching well.  So the good news is Slowey received the 3rd best best case scenario.

Rick Porcello – Now his spot in the rotation is getting skipped.  Next thing, he’ll be pitching out of the bullpen in August.  Then shutdown in September.  Finally, buying Leyland Camels in March.  It’s the circle of life.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, no BBs.  Has a 2.48 ERA on the year.  I was worried after his start vs. the Twins when he went 3 2/3 IP and gave 4 runs.  I’m still hestitant about a young pitcher in Wrigley, but he’s done little to not trust him.  Fall backwards into his arms.  He’ll catch you.  At least for another start or two, then we’ll have to reevualate.

Aramis Ramirez – Returned and went 0-for-4.  This is unconfirmed, but Cubs fans are saying he would’ve had four hits, but Bradley forgot to run in front of him.

Jair Jurrjens – 6 IP, 4 ER, one K.  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s got a few more of these yawnstipating starts in him.

Willie Bloomquist – Hit his 2nd homer yesterday.  He dedicated the shot to Jay Buhner.

John Smoltz – 6 IP, 5 ER.  I don’t own Smoltz anywhere, because, well, there’s NL fish in the sea, but if I did own him, I’d be concerned.  These weren’t exactly the Gene Tenace A’s he was facing.  He gets the Willie Bloomquist Royals next time out, if that goes poorly, might be time to pull the ripcord.

Orlando Cabrera – Now here’s an exciting name!  He’s hit two homers in the last two games.  Do with that info what you must, but if you ask me if you should pick him up, I’m going to say, “Bleh.”

Brett Anderson – 9 IP, 9 Ks as he two-hit the Sawx.  I still wouldn’t pick him up, but you know what’s fun?  The first three months of any relationship.  Yes, but besides that, the way the A’s call up just about anyone.  Anderson would be pitching in Double-A right now for just about any other organization. No expectations is just another word for nothing left to lose.

Mike Hampton – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Took care of the Pirates yesterday, will get the Nats next time out.  That’s a decent spot start, assuming he doesn’t end up on the DL by this weekend.

Kevin Millwood – 5 IP, 9 ER.  Well, we both knew it was coming.  As my Polish neighbor from my childhood would say, “What can do?”

Josh Hamilton – Returned and went 2-for-4.  See, he does deserve to be in the All-Star Game!

Jarrod Washburn – Threw a one-hitter shutout yesterday vs. the Orioles.  On the positives, showing great command with only 26 walks in 105 1/3 IP and a spacious park.  On the flip side, not a lot of Ks and very little run support.  Potatoes to chips, Washburn is worth a flier if your team is struggling on WHIP.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu has been out of his mind lately batting nearly .500 over his last 7 games.   After hitting .304 in June with 4 homers and 3 steals.  Project that out over the entire season and you have numbers The Big FraGu won’t get.  But Schlemiel! Schlimazel!  He’s worth a pickup while he’s hot.

Justin Upton – 1-for-3, HR and steal yesterday.  Was good to see him do something after going into yesterday’s game 0 for his last 18.

Everth Cabrera – 0-for-3 with two steals.  To say he’s lighting the world on fire would be a lie, but SAGNOF!

Albert Pujols – Over at Rotoworld, they referred to Pujols as Prince Albert. (If you look up Prince Albert, it’s perhaps the only Wikipedia page not safe for work.)  Guess when your last name is Pujols, you get used to harsh nicknames.  With a two ball count, Prince Albert gets the head of the bat in the zone and pierces it up the middle.

I was alerted yesterday in our fantasy baseball forums that Ozzie Guillen will be sitting Alexei Ramirez for Jayson Nix.  And it may not be for just one game.  This makes perfect sense.  A guy who has never played a game at shortstop in the major leagues.  A guy who got the Rockies starting job at 2nd last year and hit .125 and 2 extra-base hits in 56 ABs.  A guy who couldn’t hold off Omar Quintanilla for the utility man role in Colorado.  A guy whose last name says it all.   So potatoes to chips, what does this mean for us?  It means we’re screwed in the screwhole!  What do you think it means?  No, actually, I think this is just a wakeup call.  Member how Victorino was benched for Werth last May?  Yeah, me too.  Alexei will get back his starting job and should be fine.  Also, shortstop is so weak on talent that it pays to wait this out for a bit.  (BTW, “potatoes to chips” is my new favorite phrase that means nothing.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Derrek Lee – His neck spasms are acting up again.  This could be an ongoing issue all year.  Just when you think he’s out of the dark, someone shuts off the lights.

Lance Berkman – HR yesterday.  Left April batting .162, now is batting .194.

Oliver Perez – Disgraceful List.  He’s out with a strain to his ability to pitch effectively.  No timetable for his return.

Albert Pujols – 11th homer yesterday as he went 4-for-4.  The rest of the team had 3 hits.  Imagine what Pujols would do if they weren’t pitching around him.

Mitchell Boggs – Gave up 2 earned runs, but left the game after four and a third because of the inability to stop walking batters.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Kelly Johnson – DNP.  He’s in Cox’s doghouse pretty good this time.  Maybe dressing up as Gene Larkin for last Halloween wasn’t the best idea.

Jorge Cantu – HR yesterday, now has 30 RBIs.  Here’s what Rudy and I said after the first game of the season, “Hitting behind Ramirez for the rest of the season can only help.  It’s too early to predict a repeat of his 92/29/95 2008 season, but he’ll be a bigger bargain than most drafted cornermen.”  And that’s me quoting us!

Matt Capps – Says he could come back by Saturday.  Hold Grabow for now because I have my doubts.

Jake Peavy – 7 IP, 2 ER, 12 Ks.  With four of their top five hitters being Giles, Eckstein, Hairston and Gerut, they couldn’t beat the Washington Generals.

Kevin Slowey – 3 IP, 3 ER.  Unfortunately, the rain came and didn’t allow Slowey to fix a bad first inning.

Matt Tolbert – With Alexi Casilla sent down, Tolbert played 2nd base.   He should fit perfectly into the Twins plans for a weak offense.

Justin Upton – 2 HRs yesterday.  Okay, this might sound crazy, but has anyone seen him and BJ hit a homer in the same game?  Maybe him and BJ share a shoulder.

Cameron Maybin/Emilio Bonifacio – Their averages are moving closer and closer to each other and that really isn’t an endorsement for either.  On the bright side, Maybin has been seeing more time in the number two spot.

Felipe Lopez – Back from a sore ankle and stole two bases.  Sounds like someone was faking.

Manny Parra – 119 pitches through 6 innings, some walks and some Ks.  And this was a good matchup for him.  Pretty much exactly the kind of game Parra will throw.

Elvis Andrus – HR yesterday.  Of course, I just traded him away.

Aramis Ramirez – HR yesterday.  Guess he’s put his “cramps” behind him.

Randy Johnson – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, Zero Ks.  The humidor zapped the mullet’s strength!  Mullet… Must… Get… Fresh… Air…

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Was a perfect matchup for the man with the greatest first name in the majors.  If you were to read between the words there, I’m basically saying I still don’t trust him for every start.

Matt Murton – HR yesterday for the Rockies.  He actually makes good sense in the Rox lineup when they’re facing lefties.  Could be a solid pickup in NL-Only daily leagues where you can work a platoon.

Aaron Hill – 7th homer yesterday.  Who was the pickup of the year so far?  If you have to ask, you don’t own Aaron Hill.

Joe Beimel – Back in action! In the 9th inning!  Of a blowout?

Clayton Kershaw – See what I said about Parra and put it on a better team in a pitcher’s park.

Russell Martin – 3-for-5, 7 for his last 14.  Might be coming out of his early season sassafras. (<–Fun word used incorrectly!)

Bronson Arroyo – 1 IP, 9 ER.  Afterward, he played a song on his guitar.  It went like this, “I suck, suckers… Suck, suck, suck, suckers…”  Pretty catchy actually.

Ryan Braun – Grand slam and 6 RBIs.  If I may venture a guess, Braun will hit well when he’s playing then take a few games a month to recoup (cortisone shot).  Remember, 75% of Braun is Brau.  As in Lowenbrau.  Which is delicious.

Chan Ho Park – Dueled Johan Santana through 6 innings, giving up only 1 hit.  In other news, pigs can fly.

Joe Crede – Sat out because of an upset tummy.  If I ran a major league team, any time a player wanted to sit out for a minor ailment, I’d have them report their condition to Cal Ripken.  Just call him up and tell him you’re sitting out because you had Thai food for lunch.  Might think twice about ordering the Larb.

Hey, Matt Holliday finally hit a homer!  Please don’t tell me this is gonna be negative! Sorry, random italicized voice.  If you look at Holliday’s peripheral numbers you would see a guy that is more or less in line with his norms.  Now here’s the real kick in the nads.  He’s K’ing and walking less.  So what do I take away from that?  Trouble.  To me this means, Holliday is seeing more pitches to hit because AL pitchers haven’t been worried about him and rather than making them pay, Holliday’s putting the ball into play in the form of a flyout or groundout.  He’s hitting a bit fewer line drives than normal so that means his average may go up a bit, but I don’t think we see the .330 we were accustomed to in Colorado.  Now that he hit a homer, see if you can convince someone Holliday’s back from, uh, holiday.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Garza – 7 2/3 IP, 2 baserunners.  Sonavabench!  This is the problem with Garza.  He instills so little confidence.  We’ll see what he does next time out.  I got suspicions.

Josh Beckett – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Even the AL pitchers I like give me agita.  This is why I own Wolf, Paulino and Gaudin and have cast aside Carmona and Davies.  I’m convinced, it’ll make for longer life expectancy.

Julian Tavarez – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Maybe he should’ve screamed nicely at the ball last night.

Joel Hanrahan – Quick actin’ Acta brought Hanrahanananan in to relieve Tavarez.  I’m close to calling uncle here.

Ryan Zimmerman – Another HR as he approaches his total from last year.  Well, not really but it feels that way.

Aramis Ramirez – Cubs said he will avoid the DL.  Hopefully, it’s that and not, he’ll avoid the DL for ten days then play one game then go on the DL.  Cause I’m not a fan of the 2nd option.

Jeff Weaver – 4 IP, 0 ER.  Guess what, Mom?  Your number one is back!  What?  You missed my game because you were resting up to watch Jered tomorrow?  Oh.  Yeah, I like his hair too.

Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 2 ER. Wasn’t an easy matchup, but pitched very well.  I’m convinced the Marlins have the best scouts in baseball.  They are so cheap… How cheap are they?  They got rid of Josh Willingham because he was too expensive. But they always seem to put a decent product on the field.

Sean Marshall – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I liked him coming into the year, but then when he didn’t pitch until the middle of the month I had to move on.  Now he’s at 19 IP and a 3.32 ERA with 15 Ks on the year.

Jorge Cantu – Another HR.  Where ya at, Nick Swisher?

Mike Napoli – Hit his 4th home run yesterday.  This is why you ignore playing time and just put him in your catcher’s slot.

Huston Street – He might already be back in the closer’s picture.  That picture obviously isn’t pretty, but SAGNOF.

John Buck – Two triples.  5 RBIs.  I haven’t seen that much hustling from a guy named Buck since Midnight Cowboy.

Jesus Flores – Delivered a teabagger right in Joe Thurston’s face.

Mark Teahen – 8 runs for the Royals and he goes 0-for-5 with 1 Run.  What a ticker tease!

Mitchell Boggs – Has there ever been a more lawyery sounding pitcher than Mitchell Boggs.  Mitchell Boggs – Attorney at Law.  I can hear dear Phil Hartman’s faux sincere tone being his voice.  In his 2nd game started, he fanned 9 Nationals.  Granted, the batting practice pitcher does that every day before the game but still.  His minor league record indicates 5th starter (on an MLB team not fantasy team) at least for this year but he’s worth stashing in an NL-only team.

Dallas Braden – 5 “scoreless” innings. Quotes because Sweeney robbed Kinsler of a three-run homer.

Max Scherzer – You can’t K as many guys as him and Kershaw and not have breakout potential.

Chris Carpenter – May be back by late-May as he ran without pain.  May! (Rule of 3’s)

Eric Chavez – Headed to the DL.  Looks like someone was jealous of all the attention Nomar was getting.

Juan Cruz – Save as he fills in for Soria.  Soria’s supposed to come back, but that doesn’t mean he will.  Remember these clubs play fast and loose with the truth.

Chorizo – Still hasn’t won a race in Milwaukee this year.  Something smells fishy!  Wait, that’s the seafood paella!

Is Evan Longoria a 2nd round pick?  Grey, me, I seemed to think so when I wrote up my 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20. Or did Grey, me, I get swept away with Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie in the arms of Madonna circa 1999? Did I lose the ability to rank Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie lost the ability to make a kickass Steadicam shot? Am I good for nothing, except taking care of Rocco and their other kid? (Speaking of spoiled brats, for my birthday I got a pair of Heely’s — Free Your Sole!  If any of youse care, I have not broken my neck. Yet.  I really need to hire an 8-year-old to teach me how to use these things. Then again, that might’ve been how Pedroia’s brother got into trouble.  But I digress.) Now I’m 2nd guessing my 2nd round pick of Evan Longoria and you’re running in to tell your Mom, “Grey’s second guessing his 2009 fantasy baseball top 20!  Is the world no longer round?!”  It’s still round, youngen.  We just need to dig a little deeper on Longoria.

First, let me say what has me looking at Longoria a lot harder.  The BBTF did a breakdown of the Rays with ZIPS projections.  They have Longoria’s projections at 78/28/91/.264/6.  Waaaaay back in January, I said Evan Longoria’s 2009 projections would be 85/30/110/.275/7.  As you can see, my projections are more optimistic.  When you, or at least when I, look at those other projections I begin to wonder if Aramis a round or two later is better value than Longoria. (If curious, I have Aramis’s projections at 105/30/115/.295 from the 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20 third basemen and ZIPS has Aramis at 84/27/100/.289/1)

Included in the BBTF charts is a player profile where it goes over the possibility of certain stats being reached by Longoria.  There’s a 33% chance of Longoria hitting .275+ (only a 7% chance of him hitting .300+).  There’s a 38% chance of him hitting 30+ HRs (actually an 8% chance of him hitting 40 HRs) and a 17% chance of 10+ steals.  So what I’m taking away from those odds and projections is Longoria’s not going to hit .300, but he has some power to spare (and a bit of speed).  Aramis has no speed, a bit less power and more average.  Also, Longoria’s younger and rising while Aramis is a few years older and apparently plateauing.  Longoria also has more risk than Aramis.

For fantasy purposes, I’ll take more home runs and steals over average every day of the week and twice on Muesday (that’s Monday after 5 and before noon on Tuesday).  So I said Evan Longoria is a late 2nd rounder and I still agree.  Phew, a restoration of F.I.G — Faith In Grey.