I have no idea if anyone at ESPN actually ranks people. There’s talk of it. Like, “Yo, Klara Bell, you do your rankings yet?” “No, did you?” Then Cockcroft makes farting noises with his armpit. All I ever see at ESPN is consensus rankings. I have to figure out how to do this “consensus” thing. Talk about a nice way to avoid taking any blame for anything. “Hey, man, sorry about Andrew McCutchen being ranked so high this year, but these are ‘consensus’ rankings.” Let’s turn to a conversation between two random fantasy baseballers. “Cockcroft has said he doesn’t like Cano this year.” “But ESPN has him 34th overall.” “Yeah, doesn’t apply when talking about Cockcroft.” “So, when does it apply?” “When talking about ESPN.” “But Cockcroft is at ESPN” “Yeah, still doesn’t apply.” “Can you explain that?” “Nope.” Then heads explode. Consensus rankings are done by committee. Only thing ever done better by committee is jerk seasoning. Now, while you might think ESPN’s rankings have a ton of jerk seasoning, they are just an indecipherable mess. But why bring up all of this when I’m about to take a blowtorch to Yahoo’s 2017 fantasy baseball rankings? Thanks for asking, clunky expositional question! Yahoo has consensus rankings, but they also show their work. Each ‘pert is accounted for in their rankings. This is already much better than ESPN. You can at least see what Pianowski, Funston, Behrens and Triple D are thinking individually. This, of course, doesn’t mean I agree with all of their rankings, but at least I can point to how they came to their consensus. Anyway, here’s where my 2017 fantasy baseball rankings differ from the 2017 Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Our 2017 Razzball Commenters Leagues are in full signup mode. I even heard there were a few people from Anonymous that signed up! They said, “To the world, I’m Anonymous, just another white man who sits in parking lots with binoculars watching women.” Man, that Anonymous guy is depressing! As we always do about this time, I eviscerate the haters and complicators! I eviscerate the not-knowers and the over-knowers! I eviscerate the ESPN goers and the garden hoers! I overuse a word like eviscerate that I just learned! I am the Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbreviate it) and I’ve come for your children! See, because blog writing doesn’t pay so well, I’ve taken a second job as a bus driver, so I’m literally here for your kids. Like a baller! A shot caller! An “I’m outside of Hot Topic at the maller!” My eviscerating (I’m conjugating my new word!) today comes at the expense of ESPN and their 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. To the tune of Kanye’s Runaway:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.
Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.
Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.Please, blog, may I have some more?
How many hot’s is too many? I’ll say three. Because three’s are wild when I’m dealing. Third Base is going to provide a ton of power this year (we really need to appreciate how many homers were hit last season, and wonder if regression is coming…but what fun is that? Let’s predict even more Power for 2017, shall we?) and there are some speed guys, and some multi-position qualifiers, and just a whole cornucopia of idiosyncrasies going on at third base.
It might be my favorite position this season. I typed that, never having thought that before, having a favorite fantasy position. Fantasy baseball position, you know that’s what I meant. My new favorite player, World Series Winner (typing that makes me so dang happy) Kris Bryant, qualifies there (and in the outfield, too) and if you’re a fan as well, check this out. While he’s number one in my heart, he’s number two in my rankings. Though number two ain’t bad (well, it depends on who number two works for, doesn’t it?).Please, blog, may I have some more?
One word about this top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball, before I give you another 5,000 words. I’m going to avoid repeating myself from the position rankings in the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. If you want to know my in-depth feelings about a player, then you need to go to his positional page, i.e., the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 Gucci handbags for 2017– Ah, I almost got you. This post is meant to give you an idea where guys from different positions are in relation to each other. Since this post is only the top 100, there’s more players where this came from. 416 more, to be very exact. Next up, there will be a top 500 that will go to 516. Then, after that, there will be a top 7,500, then a top 25,000, then a top 600,000, until we end up with a top kajillion in April. Or maybe I’ll stop at the top 500. Yeah, that makes sense. Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel. Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2017 fantasy baseball league, young prematurely balding man.” Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters. Somebody please buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter! Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Now that we’re four positions in we can get a sense of how deep each position is. Our thermometers? Jedd Gyorko and Wilmer Flores. If Wilmer cries, the thermometer has gone too deep. So, on the top 20 1st baseman for 2017 fantasy baseball, Gyorko and Wilmer were 26 and 41, respectively. Here, they’re 24 and 38, so we have less depth in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball. At the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, they are 22 and 37. So, 3rd base and 2nd base are fairly close, but, they’re all crazy close. Finally, the top 20 shortstops for 2017 fantasy baseball, only has Gyorko where he is 19th overall. So, depth rankings on infield are shortstops, 2nd base, 3rd base and 1st base, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Carpenter is 12th here, but 21st on the 1st basemen, and Villar is 5th here and at the 2nd basemen. There are areas where each infield position has its strengths and weaknesses and relative equality like I’m not sure we’ve seen before, which is what everyone says about everything. People say now we have more things we’ve never seen before than any other time in history. Any hoo! My projections are noted for every player and all positions are at the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Greetings, friends. I hopped over to the football side of things once last year’s baseball season ended, but now I’m back. And apparently, I am such a disturbed individual that I am doing fantasy baseball mock drafts in early January. And, I am writing about them. And, well, I just wanted to start another sentence with and because it feels so wrong but so right at the same time. Anyway, moving on.
I was fortunate enough to be invited to the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft, and we’re going to recap it here. This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1). As long as I did that math correctly, that is 23 spots.
Below, I will provide the results for the first six rounds and a give my thoughts for each round. I’ll do the same for rounds 7-12, 13-18, and 19-23 in subsequent posts. I’ll try to keep it brief. All we really care about are the results here, right? Feel free to tell me how awesome or crappy you think my team is, along with what you think were the best and worst picks of the draft or the different rounds…Please, blog, may I have some more?
For those looking for pictures of ballplayers taking off their ballcap and recapping themselves, you’re in the wrong place! Though, sometimes I get the sense people in the comments aren’t wearing pants, so if that does it for you, there ya go. Oh, who are we kidding, I’m not wearing pants. Pants are for conformist sissies! Pound for pound, the top 20 3rd basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball were as good as any other position. In fact (oh, geez, here goes Grey adding on), Matt Carpenter was the 20th best 2nd baseman and samesies here, and was only the 22nd best 1st baseman, so not much more depth there. This recap ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked players in the preseason. Now, let’s get this, young money. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:Please, blog, may I have some more?
We already went over the top 20 catchers and the top 20 1st basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball. Today, we dip our big toe into the top 20 2nd basemen pool. Okay, it was actually more like a lake where lots of spring breakers are partying, and, instead of throwing beads at girls, they’re throwing 30 home run hitters. It’s a little scary, for unstints (how I say it), that there were only six 2nd basemen that you wanted to own all year in 2015, and, this year, there’s a 30-homer hitter 2nd baseman that didn’t even make the top 25 2nd basemen — Jedd, you Gyorko! 1st basemen were still a little deeper, but barely. 2nd basemen, and the soon to be released shortstops got their sea legs in 2016. To recap this crap (rhyme points!), this final ranking for last year is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:Please, blog, may I have some more?
You literally can’t find a middle infielder with less than 20 homers. You can’t. Try it. See? This year there are more players with 20 homers than any other season in the history of baseball. Some conspiracy theorists have said the new commissioner, Our Manfred, is sticking Capri Sun straws into baseballs and juicing them, but this year is odder than that and deserves a better conspiracy theory. No one is hitting 50+ homers like during the Steroid Era. Only one guy is even close to 50 homers. Instead of a few guys doing insane damage in the power department, everyone is doing better, moderately. It’s the trickle down theory. If you’re not familiar with that, I’ll explain it. When Kim Kardashian first appeared on the scene, only she was smoking hot, but rather than Kim hogging the hotness to herself, it trickled down. Khloe went from a 3 to a 5, Kourtney went from a 5 to a 7, Kris went from a 6 to a 8, the two Jenner girls came of age, going from untouchable to 8’s, and even Bruce went from a zero to a three, becoming a woman that you’d throw one if you were drunk enough. This is also what’s happened in the majors. Jean Segura, and all middle infielders, went from fours or fives to 20s. Yesterday, Segura went 1-for-4 with his 20th homer, hitting .316, to go with his 30 steals. It’s going to be hard in 2017 to know if these are legitimate gains in power, for Segura and a whole slew of other players, or if half the league is going to regress. Kinda like Brody Jenner, who was so popular before Kim, ahem, came on the scene. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?