Fantasy Baseball Advice

Have you heard I like Anibal Sanchez this year?  No?  What rock have you been living under?  Does your rock have an address?  Do you get mail addressed to “Rock?”  If someone throws a rock onto your street, does it confuse the postman?  Do you ever get mail that’s meant for The Rock that accidentally finds its way to your rock?  I have rock questions.  I haven’t been this excited about a man with a woman’s name since Jody Gerut hit 3 homers in September of 2009.  Anibal doesn’t have as many innings on his arm as most 6-year vets not because he’s a sissy with a sissy name, but because he’s had countless injuries and a labrum tear, which does sound like an injury that would happen to a girl.  He’s shown he can locate his pitches with authority, cutting his walk rate and bumping up his first pitch strike percentage to a new career high.  Not only is he commanding his pitches, but he’s also throwing them faster.  Most instances his past injuries would scare me away, but he’s actually gained speed on his fastball each year since 2007 with this past year setting a new career high for his fastball and slider velocity.  Maybe all those years of being toughened up from beatings as a boy with a girl’s name has finally paid off.  So what can we expect of Anibal Sanchez for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

The sleeper part is easy.  He’s being drafted after Hellickson, Cueto, Carpenter and near Tim Hudson.  To break down those four pitchers further.  That’s a Don’t Like, Don’t Like, Don’t Like and Injured for the 1st Month, respectively.  So you can get Anibal at a decent price.  He’s also coming off a year where he had a 9+ K/9.  There’s no other pitchers being drafted as late as him with a 9+ K/9 that don’t come with some serious baggage.  Like a four walks per nine innings-sized bag, or play for a team that might only win 70 games-sized bag.  The Marlins are primed to challenge for the pennant and their ace is Anibal Sanchez.  Not Josh Johnson as is being reported by everyone but me.  Last year, Sanchez had a 3.67 ERA, but a 3.25 xFIP due to a bit of bad luck.  Even if he repeats his shizzy luck and only comes away with 3.50 ERA and 200 Ks, he’s way more valuable than the other pitchers I mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph.  In the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, I put Anibal’s projections at 15-8/3.50/1.24/190.  If there’s one pitcher I want on every team that could sneak into the Cy Young conversation this year, it’s Anibal Sanchez.  Yeah, I’m shooting up some serious Anibalic steroids.

The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page.  Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty.  So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three.  Math’s been berry, berry good to me!  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Anibal.  I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169.  That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012.  In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors.  He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.  I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1.  To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters.  Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there.  I can only give so much love.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.40/1.18/190

22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter.  Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3.  If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own.  You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks.  I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later.  As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year.  Yes, the Nats will be good.  2012 Projections:  14-6/3.25/1.15/170

23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays.  I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95.  Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier?  Nope.  Can he be as productive?  Maybe more so.  I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza.  Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.40/1.25/190

24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking.  Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger!  Anibal was that good last year?  He (she?) was!  His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career.  Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year?  I guess, but why?  He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries.  I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name.  I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come.  I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am.  He is the Marlins’ ace.  Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on!  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.24/190

25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hanson.  I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.”  Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not.  Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson.  Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that.  Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it.  I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training.  Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013.  For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson.  2012 Projections:  10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP

26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson.  He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year.  If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20.  Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there.  He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year.  Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid.  Will he shat the bed?  I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it.  He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price.  And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from.  If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.12/180

27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy.  It’s sexy and I know it.  2012 Projections:  14-7/3.60/1.10/190

28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me.  One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA.  What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher.  What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of.  2012 Projections:  14-9/3.60/1.20/185

29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier.  He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero.  Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80.  Romero — what a joker!  His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12.  Um, they’re okay.  Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy.  Sorry, RR Cool Jay.  2012 Projections:  13-12/3.75/1.20/170

30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis.  Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs.  What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy).  Like a 1800′s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields.   2012 Projections:  13-11/3.70/1.25/190

31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson.  Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year.  I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP

32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Luebke.  I call this tier, “Yummo!”  I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy.  I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay.  2012 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings

33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy.  There’s lots of love in that post.  If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.70/1.30/195

34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance.  I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties).  Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck.  I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year.  If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010.  The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.27/190

35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game?  What a dog-faced fool!  March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit!  All of you!”  Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino.  March Grey, “Hoo-ah!”  Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year.  If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.60/1.17/160

36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013.  If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot.  If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands.  Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions.  But what fun is that?  (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections.  Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.)  2012 Projections:  12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings

37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post.  A real snoozer in the inverse.  2012 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.28/210

38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings.  I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription.  Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02.  You need more?  You shouldn’t.  But fine, for you anything!  He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors.  He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco.  When I say giddy, you say up.  Giddy… Up!  Giddy… Up!  P. Diddy… Up!  Fooled you.  2012 Projections:  9-8/3.25/1.09/170

39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.”  I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter.  His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid.  My dislike is unwarranted, basically.  Right?  Or not right?  He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings.  Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either.  We can be friends.  Wait by your phone, I’ll call you.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.25/165

40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene.  Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue.  We’re gonna take a break this year.  His peripherals last year were a mess.  6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats.   2012 Projections:  11-6/3.80/1.25/130

Baseball’s hot stove season has been largely dominated by the new-look Marlins. The last time a Miami team made such headlines in free agency, it was the controversial Miami Heat “Dream Team.” Although they did not have their own hour long ESPN special and subsequent public hatred like Lebron and his gang, the new-look Marlins have come to play. Opening a new name, a new stadium and a new brand, the Miami Marlins have been spending money indiscriminately, almost bafflingly. In the blink of an eye, the Marlins organization became populated with a fiery new manager, multiple perennial all-stars, future hall of famers, gold furniture and miniature giraffes. Seemingly not satisfied, the Marlins are rumored to be in pursuit of many of the big names still on the market. In baseball home-grown talent generally trumps big market acquisitions, but if there was a model for free agency winning championships, this certainly is not a bad start. Let’s take a minute and assess the fantasy fallout of this mind-blowing series of moves.

The first domino to fall was the Heath Bell signing, but in retrospect that is little more than a drop in the pond. The big prize was Jose Reyes, whose signing represented a bit of a shocker to the baseball world. Reyes will struggle to play full seasons (he has not exceeded 140 games played in 4 seasons), but his presence at the top of the lineup will be a major upgrade as long as he is on the field. From a fantasy perspective he gets an upgrade as he joins a lineup with more firepower than the Mets could muster. Additionally Ozzie Guillen is likely to be aggressive in his use of his leadoff hitter, meaning a return to 50 SBs is within the realm of possibility. Still, all the press surrounding this signing will likely drive up the price on draft day, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay it. I think it will ultimately be a better play to reap the benefits that this upgraded lineup will confer on the rest of the lineup. This becomes all the more poignant if the Marlins make another big offensive signing. Even though they missed the Pujols boat they still reportedly want to bolster the offense. Curiously, they are reportedly out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes because apparently no matter how many tofu tacos he eats he cannot rally the Hispanic market (funny, I thought homeruns were the universal language). One possible alternative is the Cuban shortstop Cespedes. The easy transition from Cuba to Miami makes it a fit for not only the player but also for the Marlins, who help that aforementioned Hispanic market.

Lost in all of these moves is the fact that the Marlins actually had a decent squad last year. After Trader Jack McKeon took over the team they played reasonably well, and certainly have talented pieces to work around. The primary beneficiary of this managerial change was Hanley Ramirez, who rebounded from a slow start to post respectable numbers until being shut down with an injury. Hanley will likely remain on the team even with the acquisition of Jose Reyes (despite rumors that he may be shopped), and hopefully Ozzie Guillen can motivate the superstar in the same way that Jack did.

Hanley’s situation is very interesting from a fantasy perspective because Reyes’s signing has forced Hanley to make a switch to 3rd base. This means that Hanley will bring his 5 tool talents to a new gig- dual eligibility at two of fantasy’s scarcer positions. Unlike Alex Rodriguez who made the same position shift, Hanley is not a true slugger. His power and speed combo will be truly unique at 3rd this year, but his power stroke will need to return in a big way for him to be considered a legitimate option at third base. Fortunately, his dual eligibility will allow owners who take him early to have great flexibility later on in filling these tough positions.

Another bystander from last year’s team who stands to benefit is young superstar Mike Stanton. Stanton’s power was historic in 2011, and his ability to overcome the adjustments pitchers made against him proved he was no fluke. If fantasy owners had one complaint about his 2011 season, it was likely in the RBI department. He was shuffled up and down the lineup all year, and seemingly hit nothing but solo shots. Regardless of whether the Marlins’ signings prove to be good or bad, the short term lineup looks to get a major boost, and Stanton’s RBI numbers should improve dramatically. There were numerous other Marlins position players who were mixed league relevant who can expect a similar boost as well (I’m looking at you, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez). Buy buy buy.

In stark contrast to the new-look offense, the Marlins’ rotation looked to be more of the same with Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson as the headliners (provided the latter’s injury rehab goes smoothly). After that a slovenly band of journeymen and veterans consisting of Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly-acquired Wade Leblanc rounded things out. The Marlins, correctly realizing that this rotation was a recipe for disaster, made a game-changing signing — Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has been consistently solid for a long while in the tougher American League, and should benefit from a move to the senior circuit. He should be a formidable piece of the Marlins rotation and a coveted mid-tier fantasy starter on draft day.

Another area that the Marlins did manage to upgrade was their bullpen via their somewhat surprising acquisition of Heath Bell. Bell’s peripherals are not nearly what they once were, but he should be a clear upgrade over the “Artist formerly known as Leo Nunez” Juan Oviedo. Oviedo himself becomes a dicey fantasy play unless he is non-tendered and latches on elsewhere as a closer. However it seems fairly likely that the Marlins will keep him around for depth purposes. I’d shop him in keeper leagues before the dust settles.

Whether the Marlins have built a championship contender is still a matter of debate. They have certainly generated a buzz in the baseball world that will hopefully translate to attendance at their new ballpark. Regardless of the outcome, there will be many fantasy options coming out of this lineup this year, but don’t draft on hype alone. The value is there only if you know where to look.

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

On September 7th, Kyle Farnsworth entered a 4-3 game like he had so many times before.  No one knows how many times because no one’s bothered to look, or at least no one I’ve come across.  This September game was played during the day in Tampa with the temperature listed as:  Indoors.  When the mercury first hit Indoors, many of the fans knew this day was going to be different than all but four previous Rays games.  Farnsworth blew the save.  Then on September 10th, with the temperature once again “Indoors” — eerie! — Farnsworth once again blew a save, but instead of blaming his stuff, he blamed his elbow.  It was a little tender like a battered piece of the unidentifiable parts of the chicken.  With Farnsworth out nursing his elbow, Peralta should see the majority of the saves, but it could be a committee.  I imagine Farnsworth is gonna be out a week maybe two, but I’d wait for official word before dropping him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Matt Moore – Rays are promoting their top pitching prospect.  In real baseball news, this is exciting.  In Double and Triple-A this year, he had a 1.92 ERA and 210 Ks in 155 innings.  That’s prettay, prettay good.  I’d like to see what kind of gas this guy is cooking with.  Eminem at a BBQ:  “Yo, Em, these burgers taste funny.”  Eminem, “I guess that’s why they call it propane.” In fantasy, Moore’s kinda whatever in redraft leagues.  He’ll get maybe one start, and the rest will be a relief role.  In keeper leagues, he should owned already and if he’s not, no time like the present.

James Shields – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks as Shhhields quiets the Sawx.

B.J. Upton – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 3 runs and his 20th homer.  That’s right!  You’re not the Secretaryman, you’re not the Administrativeassistantman, you’re the Bossman!  Now take charge!

Doug Fister – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Brilliant once again.  On a side note, with all the mentions of Fister recently our web traffic looking for anything but fantasy baseball has tripled.  Come looking for one thing, leave realizing you need to refine your search query.

Chase Utley – He passed a concussion test.  I wonder if he just kept choosing C.  The Phils will probably leave Utley on the sidelines for a while longer, unless the Mets and Braves win 17 of their next 5 games.

Stephen Strasburg – 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He threw 56 pitches on Tuesday, but the Nats stretched him out yesterday with 57 pitches.  The Nats also said they won’t put Strasburg on a strict pitch count.  If I may read between the lines, that actually says, “Please buy tickets for the games Strasburg starts even if he may average only four innings.”

Ian Desmond – 3-for-5 with his 8th homer.  This after a 1-for-11 stretch, which sounds like me at YogaWorks.  I nailed the Downward Facing Dog and pulled up short on all other poses.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 6 ER.  All the good you did all year, Hudson, and this?  On the last day of my H2H playoffs?  I didn’t order a bitter pill to swallow.  Why would you serve that up?  BTW, it’s perfectly fitting that we lost a tiebreaker in our H2H playoffs this week because our opponent beat us 5-4 during the regular season.  To that I say, “Plouffe.”

Chipper Jones – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in the last week as he hits .348 over that span.  As long as the Braves continue to roll Glass Chipper out there in a giant bubble so he doesn’t get hurt, he has some value.

Jake Peavy – Shutdown for the season.  Backdate that to 2009.

Adam Jones – Sat out Saturday and Sunday with a sore ankle.  In the past month, he has 2 homers and 1 steal.  I’m guessing you can find something better on waivers.

Johan Santana – Mets announced that Johan wouldn’t rejoin the team this year (after saying he would return then saying he wouldn’t then saying he would then saying he wouldn’t then saying he would).  Thanks for the re-re-reconfirmation!

Bobby Parnell – On Friday, Terry Collins said Parnell might not be the closer.  Then on Saturday he said he was the closer.  The Mets say no while nodding their heads yes.

C.J. Wilson – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Nolan Ryan said Wilson’s start made him almost as happy as noogying Robin Ventura.

Adrian Beltre – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs, 2 runs and 2 homers yesterday, 3-for-5 and a homer on Saturday and now has a 16 game hitting streak.  If you add all that up it spells, well, nothing because numbers don’t add up to words.

Troy Tulowitzki – Missed Sunday’s game and will sit out on Tuesday with a sore hipowitzki.

Drew Pomeranz – 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Solid start from the top prospect.  To start him here, you had to be crazy like the first wrestler who thought it was a good idea to cut his own forehead with a razor, but still.

Eric Young Jr. – 2-for-4 with 3 steals.  Now has 21 steals in 142 ABs.  Imagine the Rockies ever gave him 600 ABs.  The sun could take that summer off causing of how brightly I’d be beaming.

Josh Collmenter – 4 IP, 6 ER vs. the Padres.  Is it me or do the Padres only hit at the least opportune time?

Edinson Volquez – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  That was 4 walks vs. 3 Ks.  Good to see Edinson doesn’t let coaching or minor league stints get in the way of him staying true to himself.

Lonnie Chisenhall – 2-for-5 yesterday and has 3 homers in the last five games.  In other words, Lonnie done gone going going gonnie.  Of course he was on my bench in a weekly league.  Don’t cry for me, Razzball reader.  Your tears will just make me feel worse.

Alejandro De Aza – 2-for-3, 2 runs and 2 steals.  Now has 4 homers and 8 steals in only 39 games played.  That’s better than, say, Adam Jones.  Cust kayin’.

Kevin Youkilis – Will play through a hernia.  That’s number 137th on a list of things I’d like to play through.  Right after a storm of frogs like in Magnolia and right before a large man standing just outside the batter’s box throwing a bucket of amniotic fluid on me.

Alex Rodriguez – Will sit out for 3-4 days since his thumb is too close to discomfort starring Jm J. Bullock.

Yovani Gallardo – 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 12 Ks.  Y to the Izz-O, V to the izz-A.  Fo’ sheezy my neezy bout time you looked like a number one arm so freezy.

Erick Aybar – 4-for-5 with a steal.  Now hitting near .350 in the month of September, but only one steal (which came yesterday).  It’s a’ight.

Mike Stanton – Was pulled from Friday’s game because he couldn’t run at full speed.  Jack McKeon said, after putting in his teeth, that Stanton could return on Monday.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He was the only featured name in my borderline starters post for Sunday.  So far that post has been a bit hit or miss with a lot more hits than I would like.  Teach me to put any faith in John Lannan.

Anibal Sanchez – On Saturday, he threw his 2nd one-hitter of the season.  All 129 fans in attendance at the next Marlins game will receive opposite gender names with a notary on hand to make it official.