Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week in a barrage of me making sense, I looked at fantasy starters whose ERAs will get worst. Well, do onto others or turnabout is fair play or some other cliché leads me to this post — the inverse of last week’s or fantasy baseball starters who will get better.  If you weren’t around last week, I mentioned what FIP is; don’t really feel like going into it again and regular readers will tire anyway, so go back and read last week’s.  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!) (Note, Part Deux:  Because the list didn’t reveal enough buy lows amongst the biggest differences between ERA and FIP, I skipped down the list after Randy Johnson for the last two.)

Ricky Nolasco – Difference between ERA and FIP is 3.45.  Nolasco was a preseason “sleeper” from some fantasy ‘perts.  (I put the unironic, toolbaggy quotes around sleeper because Nolasco was talked about so much by some that he really wasn’t much of a sleeper anymore.)  Nolasco also showed up on Rudy’s risky pitcher post.  At this point, he’s a bargain because he can probably be bought for a tall boy of Schlitz.

Gavin Floyd – 2.71.  That sounds purdy!  Yeah, until you realize his ERA is at 7.71 so a correction of less than three isn’t all that great.

Andy Sonnanstine – 2.63.  Falls into the same category as Floyd.  Sure, he should be better, but not really anything worth getting caca-cuckoo over.

Carl Pavano – 2.26.  Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.  Guess I’m gonna have to turn this sucker to 14.

Justin Verlander – 1.93.  His ERA is at 4.29 and his FIP is at 2.36.  He has the fifth lowest FIP behind Greinke, Lincecum, Johan and Wandy.  Zoinks! (That’s a good zoinks, FYI.)

Tim Lincecum – 1.91.  Last week, we saw Johan was due for a slight correction, now we see on the other side Lincecum’s going to meet him somewhere in the middle.

Jon Lester – 1.76.  After last week’s buy/sell, I’ve spoken enough about Lester for at least two months.

Gil Meche – 1.72.  This one was surprising to me, so I went to look closer at his numbers and it does seem like he should be much better.  If you take nothing away from this post, I’d grab Meche off waivers.  He should be much better.

Josh Beckett – 1.71. This doesn’t surprise me.  Beckett’s numbers are terrible.  He’s not a terrible pitcher.

Scott Olsen – 1.61.  Blech.

Randy Johnson – 1.35.  Sorry, Mr. Mullet Man, but Randy Johnson has a better chance of winning an Edward James Olmos look-a-like contest than having a huge turnaround with a FIP of 5.51.

Javier Vazquez – 0.83.  Not a huge difference between his ERA and FIP, but, when you realize his ERA is at 3.71 and his FIP is below 3, it’s enough to get you very excited about Vazquez moving forward.  If his owner is fed up with his One Bad Inning Syndrome™, I’d try and buy him.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.78.  His FIP is 3.52, his K/9 is 8.02 and his BABIP is .332.  Coors is scary like Roseanne Barr sans makeup, but I’d take a chance on Ubaldo.

Well, that didn’t take long.  Rickie Weeks has swine flu in the wrist.  Anything negative health-wise wouldn’t surprise me with Rickie Weeks.  “Coach, Weeks got the black plague.”  “Wasn’t that only spread by rats 600 years ago?”  “Don’t know, Coach.  After Friday’s game, he was with some old broad who had snaggle teeth.  Might’ve been that.”  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this force Weeks to the DL then miss two months of the season because that’s what Weeks do.  It would be too convenient for Bill Hall to go to 2nd and Gamel to fill-in at third.  But offensively it would make more sense than the blahtoon of Counsell and Iribarren.  Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Carpenter – Returning on Wednesday.  I don’t think he gets to the All-Star Break healthy.  If you have Carpenter, you might think about hammering out a deal.  (<–Pun!)

Koji Uehara – 5 IP, 4 ER.  I still believe he’ll be better going forward than most doodes that are on waivers.

Andy Sonnanstine – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  As you probably heard by now, Sonnanstine had to bat 3rd for Longoria because Maddon was wearing his Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D glasses instead of his prescription ones when he made out the lineup card.  So my question is, how long do you think Maddon contemplated just pitching Longoria to keep him in the lineup?

Armando Galarraga – 2/3 IP, 5 ER.   A guy I’d pass over for Koji.  Give him a Stiff-Armando off your team.

Ben Francisco – 2 HRs.  Be(e)n quite the disappointment.  Might be the start of a hot streak though.

Luke Hochevar – 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Walks got to Luke HocheVarErich early as he gave way to the bullpen, including Ravishing Ron Mahay.

Brian Roberts – 4 steals this weekend.  Obviously the spark he needed was being in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  So what’s your excuse Lester?

Pat Burrell – To the DL.  Some fantasy owner’s voodoo doll finally worked.

Matt Holliday – 4-for-4, raising his average to .267, meanwhile, after an 0-for-12 weekend, Cust falls to .262.  Now if Ryan Theriot would return Alexei’s eternal soul, everything will be dandy.

Trevor Cahill – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  You know when I might like this guy?  2010.

Brad Ziegler – 2 IP.  He’s a middle reliever now, in case anyone’s holding out hope…. Or hoping for holds.

Josh Hamilton – 0-for-3 then left the game with a mild groin strain.  This is much better than the extra hot groin strain.

Jordan Zimmermann – 5 IP, 5 ER, 6.35 ERA on the year.  How about dem rookie pitchers?!  (Way off topic, but I had SportsCenter on in the background when I was writing this up and I think Magic Johnson said Kobe didn’t need penetration because he was busy getting his teammates off.  Whoa… Magic.  Family show!)

Chan Ho Park – 1 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Give Happ the ball!  When I say Happ, you say “Hochevar.”  Hmm… Damn you, subconscious.

Johnny Damon – Hit a game-winning homer yesterday (as if no one heard) and now has 10 homers.  I think he can hit 22 homers on the year and still have lots of value, but he’s not going to hit 35 homers.  The time to sell is… wait for it… here it comes… you know what it’s going to be anyway… but you still want to hear it… so here it is… coming right after this ellipsis… wait, what was I saying… was this about Star Trek?  I saw it and liked it, but “Great?”  Not really.  Oh, and sell Damon now.

Kevin Slowey – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Probably the number one reason why if I trust a pitcher, I start them just about every time out.  When you start picking and choosing, you get Slowey for three runs in three innings and miss two earned over almost eight innings.

Gavin Floyd – 5 IP, 6 ER.  And this is why I don’t own pitchers who I don’t trust.  I wouldn’t want to start Floyd anywhere.

Aaron Hill – Another homer to bring his total to 11.  I wouldn’t sell him and could see him getting to 30 homers.  Zoinks!

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER and 1 hit.  I could point you in the direction of Slowey and say the same applies.  And it does.  What I’ll add is, Kershaw needs to cut his walks otherwise he’ll hardly ever see the 7th inning.  Look at yesterday’s game as an example.  He gave up only one hit and he only made it to the 7th.  Pitch Economy 101 as taught by a former employee of AIG…

Chris Coghlan – If anyone’s paying attention to this kinda of stuff (and my guess is everyone is), Coghlan’s batting .167 and sat yesterday.

Juan Pierre – 3-for-5.  Hey, should I sell him high? First of all, random italicized voice, who’s buying a guy who’s on borrowed playing time?  Second, why not just collect the 25 steals he’s going to get in the next month and a half and be done with him?  Rhetorical!

Rich Harden – 6 IP, 4 ER.  Someone asked a very legitimate question about Harden on Friday, “I figured (Harden would be) either dominant or injured…I didn’t expect healthy and mediocre.”  Okay, maybe not a question, per se, but it brings up an interesting point.  Then commenter, Mark, answered with a little taste of brilliance, “(Harden) threw a ton of sliders last year, and this year dropped back to his 2007 level.  He appears to be throwing his changeup more than ever.  Velocity looks pretty good on everything….his fastball’s a good bit slower than it was 2 years ago but no slower than last year.  Here’s the biggie…he’s lost a ton of movement on his slider, particularly along the vertical axis.”  Also, Mark went on to notice that Harden may not be throwing his splitter at all anymore.   This could be the reasoning behind Harden’s mediocrity.  Or not.  But it’s interesting, nevertheless.

David Aardsma – Got the Win yesterday and will get the majority of the saves while Morrow tries to find what he’s looking for where the streets have no names.

Justin Masterson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Throw out two terrible starts against the Indians and the Rays and he’d be sitting on a very pretty record right now.

David Wright – From what I hear from Joe Morgan, Wright took a long slide yesterday when he was caught stealing.  A long slide.  A real long slide.  See, the problem was the slide was very long.  Too long of a slide.  Joe Morgan sounded like Milli Vanilli when they were caught lipsynching or Raymond Babbitt at the blackjack table.  Say it once, Joe.  We’ll figure it out.

Brad Lidge – Got the save, but, check this, he wasn’t brought into a save situation until after two lefties faced some other doode.  Lidge ain’t off the ledge yet…

Darren O’Day – Got the save yesterday but only because C.J. Wilson got the save the previous two days.  Wilson’s still the fill-in.  I would own Wilson in just about every league except NL-Only ones, cuz then your leaguemates will just mock you.

Shane Robinson/Nick Stavinoha – If you know who either of these two guys are, you have a Willie McGee bobble head and you’re halfway through writing a book titled, “Whiteyball,” that will definitively answer all those crazy Moneyball people.

As Stephen Drew tried to take that step forward in 2009 that fantasy baseball owners craved, he hurt his hamstring.  Wonder what a Drew family vacation is like… “J.D., you wanna go see the world’s largest bottle cap?  It’s supposedly 17 inches in circumference!” “Sure, I’ll go tell Mom and Pop.”  On the way to the Sequoia, two hamstring pulls, a fractured hip and the Mom needs Tommy John surgery.  Pretty sure no one’s giving them joint family coverage.  The MDs in AZ say Drew’s injury shouldn’t knock him out longer than the 15 days.  When you consider he hadn’t even started to hit yet, looks like Drew’ll begin his season mid-May.  All in all, this is a decent buy low guy right now.  If you can trade some spare parts for him (closer-du-jour, extra OF, etc.), he should prove worth stashing.  He’s still talented and he can have a solid three-quarters of a season.  Hopefully, he spent the first quarter on someone else’s team.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – Earliest return date is late-May.  Still a long season so you can’t really sell him short, but with the trouble coming in his right shoulder, I’d be worried this doesn’t become a worst situation before it gets better.

Brian McCann – Headed for Lasik with eye problems.  Maybe he said fudge and Cox made him suck on some soap.  David Ross is filling in for him on the Braves and he hit a HR yesterday.  Ross actually isn’t an awful replacement for fantasy owners either.  You might get some pop and his killer average shouldn’t hurt for only two weeks.  It matters how deep your league is, but I’d also look at Salty, Hundley, Shoppach and Laird, in that order.

Chris Getz – Headed to the DL.  I know what you’re thinking, Gordon Beckham gets his chance!  Yeah, but what matters is what Ozzie Guillen’s thinking.  Ozzie’s thinking Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix.  I know what you’re thinking now, what’s Ozzie thinking?!

Jake Peavy – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know this is no in-depth observation, but he just doesn’t look right.  This is very sad for me.  He’s given up way too many home runs and walks.  I wouldn’t sell him short because he can go on a ten game run where he’s unhittable… Or at least I hope he does.

Justin Upton – HRs in back-to-back games in between numerous flailings at breaking pitches (Jaboo strikes again).  At this point, he should just change his last name to Upside.  Because that’s both his allure and the reason he’s overvalued in every non-keeper league.

Mark Reynolds – 5th homer yesterday.  Guess who else hit his 5th homer yesterday?  Davis.  We got ourselves a hot one, America!

Conor Jackson – 2-for-6.  Got the game winning hit yesterday, which means poopie-squat for fantasy, but it might be the confidence builder he needs.

Cameron Maybin – 0-for-5, batting .189 on the season.   Sleeper pick went comatose the first month of the season.  I’m ready to pull the plug in 12 team leagues.  Potential replacements are Spillborghs, Kubel, Cody Ross, Teahen or Juan Rivera, obviously depends on what is out there.

Clayton Kershaw – 4 2/3, 9 ER.  Walk, tried to get ahead of a hitter resulting in a home run… Rinse and repeat.  From an absolute gem against the Giants where he K’d 13 to back-to-back beatings. He’s too good/erratic to bench.  If you bench him, you’ll miss a gem.

Adam LaRoche – 2 HRs, bringing his season total to 5.  Guess all it took was being on the same team as his little brother, Andy.  (Why haven’t the Yanks signed Mark Teixeira’s little brother to get him off his typical slow start?   Like Cody Ransom or Angel Berroa are better?)  Maybe now he’s a 2nd half of April hitter.  His upside still seems like Jorge Cantu… And his downside too.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 7-for-13 this weekend.  As I said last week, I was giving him one more week.  This was the kind of weekend I was looking for.  He’s earned a bit longer leash.

Kenshin Kawakami – It’s 4 starts now and the control (11 BB in 21.2 IP) + gopheritis (5 in 4 games) has us thinking Atlanta signed some 1/2 price sushi.  The K’s are intriguing but he has to be downgraded to matchup starter vs. start every game.

Manny Parra – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Hey, I’m a fan, but frankly this could’ve been a five earned game just as easily.

Jose Valverde – Got the save but was noticeably limping.  Cuddle Boy, Hawkins should be held for now.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 7 ER.  The A’s whooped that trick.

B.J. Upton – 0-for-4, .156 on the season.  While J. Up is all upside, B. Up is not this bad.

Justin Masterson – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Keeping walks down and Ks up.  Hopefully, Dice-K doesn’t take the bullet train back.

Pablo Sandoval - 4-for-4, HR, now batting .292.  Hope everyone held out hope where he was eligible at catcher.  He’s stocky (read: fat) but doesn’t have that much power.  My preseason projections gave him 14 homers and a .300 average.  Still sounds about right.

Jered Weaver – 7 shutout innings leaves him at 2-1 with good ERA, WHIP, solid K rate (almost 8 per 9 IP) and, most importantly, he’s not another Angel pitcher with a broken wing.  Only owned in 87% of ESPN leagues.  Seems to be underrated – maybe because of his brother?

Jordan Zimmermann – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  No weepstakes here so far.  Very impressive start against the Mets.  He won’t obviously stay below a 3 ERA, but while teams try to figure him out, he could coast to a solid 1st half.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER. Looks like someone let my Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell get in their head.

Joakim Soria & Brandon Morrow – Both have sore shoulders that – for now – are just day-to-day.  (Soria + Morrow = Sorrow?)  Morrow seems ready to go for next game where Soria might be due back middle of next week.  Might be worth playing Aardsma and Juan Cruz in deep leagues or if you need saves.

Derrek Lee – Removed because of neck spasms.  When you’re batting .197, you’re snapping your neck from the pitcher to the catcher a lot.

Ross Ohlendorf – Outdueled Peavy to go to 2-2 with a 3.24 ERA.  We really want to root for a guy with such a fun last name to say but his crazy low K rate (10 K in 25 IP) hints at a pitcher who’ll get flogged sooner vs. later and often vs. seldom.

Aaron Laffey – Won his 2nd game this week since being called up from the minors.  He’s far from a K guy but he is throwing a lot of ground balls right now.  Consider him for spot starts but he’s more likely to earn a full-time spot this year on a Razzball staff right now vs. a real fantasy baseball staff (real fantasy baseball staff – is that an oxymoron?)

Armando Galarraga – Now at 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA.  Guess the fact we named him #1 most risky pitcher motivated him or something.  He’s K-ing nearly a guy an inning which is above last years 6.35/9 IP rate.  We haven’t flipped positions on him just yet but getting there.

Shawn Hill – To the 15-day DL.  Hmm… maybe he’s part Drew?

Chris Ray – Sherrill won’t see saves in back-to-back games according to the O’s.  Then again, according to the O’s they have a major league pitching staff.

Adam Jones – 3-for-4, HR and 1st steal of the year.  The steals will come and the power will continue.  He’s not a sell candidate, unless you’re against Prop 420.

After I posted the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there was a public outcry in the comments.  Where is so and so?!  It was as if I butchered their bunny rabbit like the Roger and Me lady.  No one’s butchering your bunny rabbit, friend.  Your bunny rabbit’s fine.  Unfortunately, I don’t think your bunny rabbit’s a top 40 starter.  Your bunny rabbit, friend, is a top 60 starter.  How’s dem carrots?  BTW, while the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings are the gospel, they aren’t set in stone.  I update them occasionally.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Justin Verlander – This is the first tier of these starters.  This tier I call, “Guys I took grief for leaving off my top 40 starters list.”  Every other ‘pert has Verlander in the 25 to 30 range.  There’s lots of anecdotal evidence why he wasn’t that good last year.  The new pitching coach picked out a flaw in his mechanics, at Tigerfest Verlander admitted his arm was tired from 2006, Inge’s butt pats aren’t as firm as Pudge’s, etc.  Maybe these things are true, or maybe no one wants to admit Verlander is not the pitcher he showed in 2006.  In 2006, Verlander left a huge amount of baserunners on.  His ERA that year was 3.63.  His FIP ERA, which is basically ERA without fielding, was 4.35.  So he was really a 4.35 ERA pitcher the year that he was tremendous.  Then throw in his Ks have gone down, his walks have gone up.  I purposely left him off the top 40 starters because I don’t want him on any team at the spot he’s being drafted.  In the end, Verlander is a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP pitcher.  That’s fine, it’s just not a 25 to 30 range pitcher like others would have you believe.  2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160

42. Zach Grienke – I think Rudy’s 20 risky pitchers post says it all on Greinke.  I’m especially concerned this year about pitchers who went from reliever to starter in the last two years.  Remember Reliever to Starter to DL.  It’s not that I won’t draft one, I just want to preach caution.  Then you throw in the fact, Greinke’s two years removed from a nervous breakdown and he plays for the Royals.  Put on the breaks, people.  The Royals are not this year’s Rays.  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130 and starts missed.

43. Brett Myers – See Greinke, Zach or 1/18th of an inch above.  2009 Projections:  12-5/4.30/1.32/130 and starts missed.

44. Ted Lilly – Also mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  Caveat emptor as they say in Honduras.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160

45. Ryan Dempster – See Myers, Brett then see Greinke, Zach then see 20 risky pitchers post.  I’m probably most concerned about Dempster from this tier.  His 2008 screams outlier.  Here, listen… Dempster’s 2008 season, “Outlier!”  See?  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120 and starts missed.

46. Derek Lowe – This is a new tier.  I call this tier, “Guys I’d draft to be my third or fourth starter.”  This tier goes from here to Kuroda.  Derek Lowe has proven himself to be a reliable workhorse, just nothing that flashy in the K department.  A steady pitcher from one or two of your starters helps you when you take fliers on other guys cough David Price cough.  I already went over Derek Lowe’s move to the Braves in detail.  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.22/140

47. Clayton Kershaw – The walks worry me.  52 in 107.2 innings is P to the lenty.  That’s why he’s this low.  The Ks have me excited.  He’s definitely worth a flier.  I do think he can outperform this ranking.  2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140

48. Jair Jurrjens – There’s concern about his jump in pitches/innings last year from the previous year, but he throws a low percentage of curves/sliders and lots of sinking fastballs.  He’s not going to be an ace, but there’s good reason to believe he can be a solid number two to three.  2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150

49. Ubaldo Jimenez – Walk numbers like Kershaw but in Coors would usually lead me to tell you to pass, but his stuff is nasty.  Like first name ain’t baby nasty.  I’d be careful about the leagues where I grabbed Jimenez though.  Walks in Coors could explode in your face in any league shallower than 12 team ones.  2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165

50. Fausto Carmona – Didn’t like him last year.  I like him this year.  Last year, he had a lot going against him.  This year he still has no Ks against him.  So I don’t like him that much.  Everything in moderation, except moderation. You can quote me on that or whoever I just bogarted it from.  2009 Projections:  14-9/4.00/1.25/120

51. John Maine – He was pitching hurt last year and losing some speed on his fastball when he looked like crizz-ap.  I don’t think he’s going to be an ace, but he could move up these rankings if he is indeed healthy in the spring, which he is claiming he will be.  2009 Projections:  13-7/3.85/1.35/150

52. Scott Baker – Mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post and had a high amount of men left on base, but has enough ability to induce strikeouts to make me like him to an extent.  I’m a bit of a whore for Ks if you haven’t noticed. 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150

53. Andy Pettitte – I don’t want Pettitte in all leagues just those AL-Only ones.  He’s way past the point of “accidentally” backing his ass up into a Clemens syringe.  2009 Projections:  15-10/4.40/1.40/160

54. Hiroki Kuroda – Doesn’t have the K/9 ratio to get too excited about and he was one of the largest FLAKES in the majors last year.  (A FLAKE is basically a pitcher who goes from excellent to unusable from start to start.  A FLAKE is also Manny Ramirez.)  2009 Projections:  13-9/3.90/1.25/120

55. Oliver Perez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pelfrey.  I call this tier.  “No thanks.”  Perez can be great.  Doesn’t matter, I’m off him like black off rice.  2009 Projections:  14-10/4.50/1.42/190

56. Gavin Floyd – Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.  I just threw up a little in Gavin Floyd’s mouth.  2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140

57. Jeremy Bonderman – Bonderman’s career took a left turn down an alley in the red light district of Amsterdam and now it’s living with an STD in Copenhagen and it changed its name to Jan Lingön Strudel.  Until Jan Lingön Strudel shows me a year where he’s worthwhile, I’m not drafting him.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.40/125

58. Armando Galarraga – He had a FIP (ERA independent of fielding) of 4.88 compared to his real world 3.88.  Or, I guess, imaginary world.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.26/110

59. Chris Carpenter – There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.  It’s not worth the ulcer.  2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110 in 20 starts

60. Andy Sonnastine – Not that you thought I was a prostitute, but I wouldn’t touch him if you paid me.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  If you want to read a contrary opinion, Fangraphs likes him in 2009.  You say tomato, I say marginal starter who doesn’t strikeout enough hitters. 2009 Projections:  9-9/4.50/1.30/100

61. Joe Saunders – What I said about Sonnastine² 2009 Projections:  11-7/4.15/1.26/95

62. Mike Pelfrey – What I said about Sonnastine³ Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  10-10/4.50/1.40/100

63. Justin Duchscherer – Because this awful tier just won’t end, I had to make this the top 63 starters plus 2 post.  Are you happy with yourself, Justin Dook-sheer?  2009 Projections:  5-7/3.85/1.15/70 and missed starts.

After the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Wandy Rodriguez – I already went over why Wandy’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  If you don’t want to read it, that’s on you.  2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160

Jeremy Guthrie – Anyone who has read Razzball for longer than a minute (not an Urbandictionary minute which is actually long) knows that I love me some Guthrie.  Hopefully he continues to be underrated.  2009 Projections:  12-10/3.90/1.25/130

This post picks out 20 starting pitchers who look like risky propositions in 2009.  It leverages findings from our analysis of previous year pitch counts and how this information can help predict a pitcher’s chance of breaking down (defined as less than 2000 pitches which is ~ 120 IP) or performance drops (0.50+ increase in FIP) in the following season.

The key criteria we looked at are:

1. % of Curves/Sliders - Above 27% is bad.  Above 30% is worse.  Etc.
2. Pitch count difference between 2007 and 2008 - Anything above 700 is bad.  Unlike our initial analysis, we factored in postseason pitches as well as estimated minor-league pitches.
3. First year above the 2,700+ MLB pitch threshold in 2008 – Yes is bad.

If the statistic next to these criteria is in red, that’s bad.  If in blue, it’s okay.  You will find that we will throw in a few other stats along the way like BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) but these serve only as FYIs/additional warnings as our two ‘failure’ measures are luck independent (aside from perhaps some of the HR component of FIP).

Since our previous research showed that about 45% of pitchers follow up 2700+ pitch seasons with seasons of less than 2000 pitches or a +0.50 FIP increase, averages say that 9 of these 20 should ‘fail’.  Our bold estimate is that at least 12 of these 20 will fail with the top 10 having at least 6 that fail.

We apologize in advance for the following:

• If one of these pitchers is on your favorite real team and/or a keeper on your fantasy team
• If one of these pitchers is a friend, family member, lover or teammate.
• If one of these pitchers is you.
• If you avoid one of these players based on this advice and they prove us wrong.

Now that we got our approach and apologies out of the way, here we go….

1. Armando Galarraga

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches:  2,984 (est. 204 in minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +2,631 (est. +403 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Part ‘Big Cat’ and part ‘Blownitez’, Armando had an impressive rookie year going 13-7/3.73/1.19 after being acquired in a pre-season trade with the Texas Rangers (one of these days they might actually keep one of their farm-grown pitchers – see Chris Young, John Danks, Edinson Volquez…).

Predicting a fall back for Galarraga is almost too easy.  The 39% curve/slider rate is really high (will elaborate more on this with the next two pitchers on the list) and his pitch count had a nice spike vs. the previous year.  The reason he is #1 is that in the case he doesn’t break down next year (probably close to 50/50), he’ll likely be pulled from the rotation at some point if his ERA matches or exceeds last year 4.88 FIP.  Yes, that’s a 1.15 difference between ERA and FIP which was the biggest gap in the MLB.   His BABIP was a ridiculous .247 (average is around .290).  So this feels a bit like cheating since this is supposed to be only about using previous year’s pitch counts vs. other factors but is it really cheating if you cop to it?

2. Ricky Nolasco

2008 Curve/Slider % – 43%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,243
Difference From 2007:  +2,894 (est. +2,366 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Nolasco showed a little promise in 2006 before an injury-marred 2007.  I doubt very many people expected him to have the breakout 2008 season.  Expectations will be higher in 2009 and the prospects don’t look very good.  He FAR exceeds the year-over-year pitch count and the curve/slider %.   This was also his first season above 2,700+ MLB pitches making him 3-for-3 on the criteria.  Only 10 pitchers in 2005-2007 hit all three criteria.  Here’s the list:

2005 – Joe Blanton, Josh Towers, Bruce Chen, John Patterson
2006:  Ervin Santana, Felix Hernandez
2007:  Adam Wainwright, Rich Hill, Boof Bonser

The pitchers who made it to 2000+ pitches the next year were Joe Blanton, F-Her, and Ervin Santana.  You may recall that Ervin Santana was God awful in 2007.  F-Her and Blanton, who fared okay, at least pitched a number of innings in the minors the year prior (vs. Nolasco’s injury-plagued 2007).

Knowing that it may be tough for some to steer clear of Nolasco, I wrote this poem to help you remember:

Ricky Nolasco
Really pitched fantastico
But he’s not made of elastico
So drafters please watch out

The reason he’s taking a fall
He throws a lot of breaking balls
And his pitch count spiked, making this call
One with little doubt

3. Gavin Floyd

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,235
Difference From 2007:  +2,082 (est. +383 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Floyd was a top prospect that had trouble shaking injuries early in his career (54 IP in 2004-2005) to pitch two injury-free seasons in a row.  While his 2,000+ MLB pitch spike can be downplayed because of 106 IP in the minors in 2007, throwing 39% breaking balls (split close to even between sliders and curve balls) is extremely high for a young pitcher.  Here is the list of starting pitchers with 3 or less seasons of 2,700+ pitches to throw over 35% pitches in a season from 2005-2007:  Casey Fossum (47% – 2005), Tony Armas Jr (36% – 2006), Ramon Ortiz (35% – 2006), Ian Snell (37% – 2007), Boof Bonser (39% – 2007), and Adam Wainwright (35% – 2007).  All six of these players fell back hard the next year – either missing significant time or pitching less effective.

The moral of the story is that a pitcher who throws breaking balls at this high of a rate is running up a debt on their arm that will be paid in the next year (and, possibly, beyond).  I will call it a Faustonian Bargain after the Oriole pitcher (and longtime Cub broadcaster) Steve Stone who blew his arm out throwing 50% curve balls during his 1980 Cy Young year.

Throw in the fact that Floyd had a super-low BABIP (.268) and the safe bet is that he is more likely to be useless in an AL-only league than be useful in a mixed league.

4. Brett Myers

2008 Curve/Slider % – 42%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,739 (est. 442 in minors)
Difference From 2007:  +2,078 (est. +2,520 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

The demands of a World Series run the year after a season with 48 of 51 appearances coming in relief does not bode well for Brett Myers in 2009.  He started featuring his slider more in 2006 when his breaking pitch % jumped from 25% to 37% – so perhaps the move to closer in 2007 was a fortuitous one.  But then he goes and throws more breaking pitches in 2008 (est. 1,500-1,600) than total pitches in 2007 (1,193).  Since this effort helped the Phillies win the World Series, they shouldn’t boo him too loudly when he gets slapped onto the DL for an extended period in 2009.  And in case you have a short memory on the dangers of pitchers who are coming off a relief season + full starter season, take a look at the stats of Wainwright, Carmona, and Gaudin in 2008.

5. Ryan Dempster

2008 Curve/Slider % – 27%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,450
Difference From 2007:  +2,420 (est. +2,388 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

See the Brett Myers comment regarding the one year delay effect on relievers who move to starters.  I call a Dempster dive in 2009.

6. Andy Sonnanstine

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,183
Difference From 2007:  +1,085 (est. -51 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Is it me or does this guy sound like a 10 year old kid?  Andy Sonnanstine to the principal’s office!  Sonnanstine has the weakest stuff of Tampa Bay’s top four (averages just 87 MPH on his fastball) so he has to over-rely on both cutters (30%) and breaking pitches (39%).  I won’t recycle the earlier points on the high breaking ball rate – I think you get our POV by now.  It seems like World Series teams always have one casualty and he seems like the best bet.  If he somehow manages to stay healthy, I’d expect an ERA closer to 2007′s 5.85 vs. last year’s 4.38 despite the fact that his FIP/BABIP indicates he might’ve had some bad luck last year.

7. Jonathan Sanchez

2008 Curve/Slider % – 12%
2008 Total Pitches:  2,830
Difference From 2007:  +1,825 (est. +1,454 if minor league pitchesvaz included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Owner of the best Jewish/Latino name since Welcome Back Kotter’s Juan Epstein, Sanchez is the 3rd converted reliever to appear on the list.  He had never pitched more than 70 innings a year prior to last year’s 158 IP.  And a Sanchez inning is a lot more stressful than a typical inning as he piles up a lot of strikeouts (8.94/9 innings) and walks (4.27/9 innings).  He’ll be targeted by a number of drafters since has a high K rate and pitches in the NL W(eak)est.  Send them this post when he goes down with this Nelson Muntz audio clip.

8. Todd Wellemeyer

2008 Curve/Slider % – 24%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,095
Difference From 2007:  +1,715 (est. +1,699 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

The 4th converted reliever on the list.  If Andy Sonnanstine sounds like a 10-year old, Wellemeyer sounds like the fat kid at the fraternity house that only goes by his last name and wins all the drinking/belching contests.  The huge pitch spike will likely derail Wellemeyer in 2009 giving Cardinal fans deja vu from 2008 Wainwright.  Unless, that is, Braden Looper shares his secret…

9. Dana Eveland

2008 Curve/Slider % - 32%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,020 (est. 336 in minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +2,578 (est. +2,319 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – N/A (pitched 2,684 last year)

Eveland came up through Milwaukee’s farm system and went to Arizona in the Johnny Estrada trade and to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade.  After pitching only 37 IP in 2007, he deivered a promising 2008 where his 4.34 ERA in 168 IP underestimated his performance (4.09 FIP).  While his 2008 MLB pitch total is just below the 2,700 threshold, he cleared that if you include 3 minor league starts.  That pitch spike is dangerously high and his reliance on breaking pitches only make it more likely for a fall back in 2009.  I doubt Eveland is really a fantasy option outside AL-only leagues but he is a risk nonetheless.

10. Johnny Cueto

2008 Curve/Slider % – 32%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,036 (est. 204 in minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +3,036 (est. +455 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

While he sounds like a school bully character that Billy Zabka would play in an 80′s movie (Sweep the leg!), Cueto might need protection from a sore arm.  He’s got a Pedro build and throws more breaking stuff than Pedro did during his durable prime.  I’m not crazy about the pitch count increase or that it was his first year of 2,700+ pitches but the sliders worry me most.  I’m sure Dusty Baker will throw him 120 pitches in a late April game to expedite his inevitable shutdown.

11. Zack Greinke

2008 Curve/Slider % – 31%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,227
Difference From 2007:  1,144
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

Last time Greinke topped 3,000 pitches (2005), he had a mental breakdown the next year.  He might be headed for a physical breakdown this year.  That’s both a big spike in pitch count and a high percentage of breaking balls.  Of the 10 pitchers who threw 2,700+ pitches, 30+% breaking balls, and had a 700+ pitch spike between 2005-2007, 6 broke down the next year and another 2 saw a 0.50+ increase in their FIP.  If you believe those stats, there is only a 4-1 chance (20%) that Greinke can stay healthy and post an ERA below 4.00.  Okay for a late round play but avoid him in the middle rounds.

12. Ervin Santana

2008 Curve/Slider % – 35%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,526
Difference From 2007:  +917 (est. -414 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

Santana bounced back from a Homeschooled 2007 (1-10, 8.38 ERA on road) to have a career year in 2008.  He’s maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in ’06 to 33% in ’08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009.

13. Jesse Litsch

2008 Curve/Slider % – 23%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,095 (est 340 iin the minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +984 (est. +106 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Litsch was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners and Jays fans in 2008 – posting 13 wins and a 3.58 ERA in 176 IP.  While his 5.06K/9 IP is pretty ugly, it is the percentage of fastballs (24%) that is downright frightening.  Litsch depends heavily on a cut fastball at the rate of 43% of his pitches.  Combined with the pitch spike, I’d say Litsch is one of those drafted pitchers that may be on the FA wire by the end of April.

14. John Lester

2008 Curve/Slider % – 17%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,758
Difference From 2007:  +2,074 (est. +1,080 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

It’s hard to count out Lester given what he’s overcome and he throws a cutter (22% of pitches) instead of a slider.  If he keeps throwing the cutter at that rate, he’s a serious long-term threat (check out Steve Avery and Jim Abbott’s stats after they turned 30).  For 2009, the huge pitch count increase could end up hurting him worse than the grating accents of Sawx fans – Hey Jahn Lestah!  Gid jahb fickin’ beatin’ cancah!

15. Mike Pelfrey

2008 Curve/Slider % – 14%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,323
Difference From 2007:  +2,038 (est. +758 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Pelfrey rebounded from an awful 2007 to regain some of the luster he had prior to that season (although his minor league stats don’t look that great, I suppose it isn’t the first time the Mets oversold a prospect).  From a fantasy perspective, his 110 Ks in 200 IP look awful but he does throw a high number of ground balls (~50%) which limits extra-base hits.  He made this list because of his pitch count spike from 2007 to 2008.  It is the type of thing that makes a borderline draftable pitcher a non-draftable pitcher.

16. AJ Burnett

2008 Curve/Slider % – 30%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,650
Difference From 2007:  +1,001
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

A perennial risk who has never really put together the Cy Young-caliber season that his stuff hints at.  For a guy with a history of arm injuries and a plus fastball, there is no reason to throw so many curve balls (same thing with Sheets).  The Yanks have a lot more incentive than the Jays to reduce that breaking ball rate but it will likely come at the expense of ERA/WHIP unless he develops another strong off speed pitch (he throws his change-up only 5% of the time and has no split-finger fastball).  He is worth the risk as a 2nd half of the draft selection but the move to the Yanks will likely boost him into the top 100 or so picks.  I’d pass.

17. Matt Garza

2008 Curve/Slider % – 20%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,378
Difference From 2007:  +1,493 (est. +452 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

The Twins usually reserve their bad moves for resigning their own free agents (see recent Punto and Kubel signings) but the Garza/Bartlett for Delmon Young/Brendan Harris trade isn’t looking too good for them one year out.  I don’t know if the Veal Hook will improve in 2009 but my bet is that Garza will fall back a bit.  The extended playoff run left him with a small total pitch spike but a large one for MLB pitches.  Think those pitches down the pennant stretch and in the playoffs may have been more stressful than throwing mid-season for the Rochester Red Wings (Twins AAA affiliate) in upstate New York?  It doesn’t help that his 2008 numbers are boosted by a better than average BABIP (.278).

The risk is mitigated somewhat by the fact that he’s young enough to improve and doesn’t overdo it on the breaking pitches thanks to confidence in a fastball that averages 93 MPH.  Risky enough that he isn’t worth reaching for but perhaps worth a flier as a 5th or 6th starter.

18. Javier Vazquez

2008 Curve/Slider % – 36%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,376 (est. 80 in the minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  -89
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

Vazquez is as consistent as they come in terms of innings pitched throwing 198+ every year this decade.  He provides better than average Ks and somehwat disappointing ratios to the frustration of statheads.  So why predict a breakdown when he’s moving back to the kinder National League?  Last year’s spike in breaking pitches driven by an overaffection for the slider (increase of about 215 more breaking balls thrown between 2007 and 2008) could have a carryover effect that even CHONE’s optimism won’t be able to reverse.

19. Ted Lilly

2008 Curve/Slider % – 35%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,240
Difference From 2007:  -79
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

The only player whose name contains two How I Met Your Mother characters, Lilly has been everything the Cubs could have realistically hoped for in his first two seasons.  He has pitched his only two 200 IP seasons and tamed the wildness he experienced in his final 3 years with Toronto (4+ BB/IP with Toronto, down to about 2.5 with Cubs).  The big flashing warning sign with Lilly is his growing reliance on breaking pitches.  In 2006 and 2007, he threw 31% breaking pitches throwing an even split of curve balls and sliders.  In 2008, this moved to 35% with 2-1 slider to curveball ratio.  I imagine a pitcher like Lilly would feel more stress from sliders than curve balls given the lollipop curve he throws (like Barry Zito or David Wells).

He’s come back strong after 30+% breaking pitches in 2006 and 2007 but I don’t think the third time will be the charm.  With a fastball that has decreased in average speed since 2006 (90 to 88 to 87), Lilly is going to have to evolve into a Glavine/Moyer type pitcher in order to stay effective.  Glavine relied heavily on changeups (38% in his last good year with the Mets) while Moyer throws over 50% cut fastballs and changeups.  While Lilly has a changeup (16% of pitches in 2008), I think 2009 is more likely a year of transition (and DL time) than a continuation of his (relative) Cubbie success.

20. Scott Baker

2008 Curve/Slider % – 32%
2008 Total Pitches:  2,596 (est. 80 in the minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +597 (est. -91 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – N/A (pitched 2,694 in 2008)

Baker had a very nice year under the radar with an 11-4/3.45/1.18 season in 172 IP.  He also has a strong K/BB ratio of 3.36 and had a manageable year-over-year pitch count difference.  But that 32% breaking ball rate makes him a risky bet to avoid significant missed time.

Other notes

Guys who can easily be on this list but I don’t think you’d draft them anyway: Brandon Backe, John Lannan, Brian Bannister, Tim Redding, Greg Smith

Guys who can easily be on this list but we just felt an unquantifiable good vibe about:

• Tim Lincecum – No doubt that his 3,682 pitch count in 2008 was unnecessarily high.  He threw about 2,900 pitches in 2007 (counting minor league pitches) so the pitch spike is borderline.  Our optimism comes from the fact that he throws fastballs and changeups 85% of the time.
• Ben Sheets – Spiked 800 pitches to get to 3,000 for the first time since 2004 and threw 33% curveballs.  He’s always an injury risk but we feel like he might have another 200 Inning / 3,000 pitch year in him after all those 1/2 years.  [UPDATE - He might have one of those seasons in him but it's highly doubtful it'll be 2009.]
• Chad Billinglsey – That was a near 1,000 pitch increase vs. 2007 if you factor in the postseason (about 2,500 to 3,500).  20% breaking ball % is fair.  At 6’1″ 245 lbs, just feels like he can handle the load.
• Kevin Slowey – A 1,378 MLB pitch count increase is ugly although it’s more like a 700 pitch decrease if you factor in his 2007 minor league pitches.  He’s right near the breaking ball % threshold with 26%.  We just love the fact that he had the best BB/9 IP rate (1.35) of any pitcher in the majors with 160+ IP.
• Randy Johnson – 35% sliders and old as dirt but he’s a freak of nature
• Manny Parra – Throws five pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Split-Finger, and Slider) all for balls (4.07 BB/9 IP).  Big spike in MLB pitch count (2,403) but only 323 if you factor in Minors.  20% breaking ball rate is fair.  Feel like his bigger issue will be throwing strikes in 2009 vs. staying healthy.

Guys who had big pitch count spikes but we feel have no more risk than the average pitcher:

• Cole Hamels – Jumped from 2,906 pitches to 3,914 pitches (487 in postseason) but he’s mainly a fastball/changeup pitcher (only 14% breaking balls).  Don’t think he can handle another workload like 2008 but he’ll manage an effective 3,000 pitches.
• James Shields – Another pitcher who relies  heavily on the arm-friendly changeup (~ 30%) over the curveball (10%).  Threw 3,543 total pitches in 2008 but it was only a 366 jump from 2007.  Feel a little uneasy about the prevalence of cut fastballs (19%) and minimial % of fastballs (45%).
• Edinson Volquez – 3,386 pitches in his first full MLB year is excessive (thanks Dusty!) but he threw around the same number of pitches in 2007 (b/w majors and minors) and – like Lincecum, Hamels, and Shields – throws a ton of changeups (32%) vs. breaking balls (12%)
• Jair Jurrjens – Taking his minor league pitches into account, Jurrjens pitch total increased to about 800 last year.  Broken record though – 26% changeup, 12% slider.
• John Danks – A 842 pitch spike but a low % of breaking balls (11%) because of his cut fastball and changeup.