Fantasy Baseball Advice

The G-Sizzle Fizzle loses more carbonation as we head into September.  Grady Sizemore will undergo surgery prior to the end of the season.  This means you will lose him at some point this month.  The longer the Indians push him the more of a chance that he may not be ready for spring training.  The Indians are playing for $23 worth of trinkets right now so this is a no-brainer for them.  And a no-brainer is the Indians’ management specialty.  They called up Michael Brantley to eventually fill-in full-time for Sizemore.  Last night, Brantley played left field (went 2-for-4, batted 9th).  In 115 games in Triple-A, Brantley had 43 steals.  He’ll probably be a liability on average, but for those steal-starved teams out there — SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Left with a tight hamstring.  Had one of those last Thanksgiving on the Hormel.  Had to chew around it.

Michael Young – His hamstring is a little more serious with a strain.  If I had to guess, I’d say he’s headed to the DL.  Though, knowing the way Young loves his 200 hit seasons, he may just play gimpy.  Hehe, I said gimpy.

Neftali Feliz – Has one earned run, 26 Ks and ONE WALK (caps for emphasis and the guy reading over your shoulder) in 19 and two-thirds innings.  Holy heffin hey!

Josh Hamilton – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his season total to ten.  Almost as big a bust as the one he was seen licking whipped cream off of.

Chris Davis – 5-for-8 in yesterday’s doubleheader with a homer.  And no strikeouts!

Tim Hudson – Last time he pitched in the majors, I titled the post, “Whoscow for the Hudson,” and he went off to see, Dr. Freeze.  (Oddly, in the post where Hudson was injured, so was Michael Young.  They’re cosmically linked, I tell ya.  Kismet, I say.  When Michael Young slides, Tim Hudson’s pants get dirty.)  Hudson’s line this game (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks) is almost exactly what I would imagine you’ll get from him the rest of the season.  Iffy five inning games.  Worth it in some leagues, not in others.

Jorge Posada – 2 HRs yesterday.  Why doesn’t he have a “de la” in the middle of his name?

Carlos Guillen – It pains me to keep saying nice things about Guillen, yet here he is again with another homer.

Andy Marte – Now has 4 homers in the last seven games.  I dropped some schmohawk for him in one of my leagues.  This is a trust exercise.  Just fall into Marte’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Carlos Carrasco – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Was in my September call ups Markie Post-thingie.  I said I liked him for next season.  Never said I liked him for this one.  Okay, I did like him for this one, but that was last December.

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, Cole, nice of you to join us for September.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  His walks aren’t a thing of beauty, but you know what is?  His collection of air sickness bags? No, I’m going to tell you, random italicized voice.  His Ks.  He has 145 Ks in 132 1/3 innings.  That makes him ownable everywhere.  Well, except in 4 x 4 leagues, but no one plays them anymore, do they?

David Wright - Went 1-for-3 in his return as he wore an American Gladiator helmet.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Glad to see he didn’t lose his lack of stuff in the minors.

Garrett Jones – Another homer.  Argh, I’m actually excited for Pirates.  Okay, pop quiz, hot shot.  Who’s been more valuable this year, Garrett Jones or Ryan Ludwick?  You infer the answer.

Mike Carp – Called up for the M’s and should see a decent amount of time.  He has moderate pop, not a great average.  Outside of deep leagues (>12), I’d just wait to see.  (BTW, that’s a greater than symbol and a twelve.  Not some kind of weird teenager texting language meaning a heart next to a coat hanger or something.)

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Has a 2.90 ERA on the year with 133 1/3 innings.  Is his name in the Rookie of the Year convos?  Hmm, I just did, didn’t I?  For what it’s worth, and I guess it is worth something since you’re reading this, I think Wells is going to slightly disappoint next year.

Jeff Manship – 5 IP, 1 ER vs. the Called It A Day White Sox.  Besides having a last name that sounds like a cruise hosted by Adam Carolla, Manship has good control and decent K-stuff.  Listen, if the Twins start him, he’s probably better than most.  He’ll have the same growing pains as most rookie pitchers, but could have matchup potential.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Another solid start from The dlR.  I hope the Rockies miss the playoffs just so dlR’s innings stay low(er) and I can draft him without worries next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  You know what I really like here?  Besides the homer, he was only on base once (a walk) and he stole a base.  That’s the kind of initiative we need in September.

Clayton Richard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If he didn’t pitch well in Petco vs. the Nats, there would have been problems.

Vicente Padilla – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  It’s nice in the NL West, ain’t it?

Felix Pie – HR yesterday for his 4th homer in the last eight games.  No idea where the power is coming from.  Maybe Aubrey Huff left behind some corked bats.  Whatever the case, when the player’s hot, grab them.  By the time I write about him in the Buy section of Friday’s post, Pie may no longer be hot.

Adam Jones – Left the game with an ankle injury.  Is it me or is this guy injured every other week?  Maybe he’s doing it to get a prescription of medicinal marijuana.

Chad Qualls is probably done for the season.  The closer shituation isn’t going to be pretty in Arizona, unfortunately.  We’re looking at a closerousel.  I’d list the candidates in this order:  Juan Gutierrez, Clay Zavada, Esmerling Vasquez, Daniel Schlereth and Blaine Boyer.  Reading those names again, I vomited into a trash bin and the ghost of Hoyt Wilhelm materialized and said in a British accent, “Be careful, Grey.  Gutierrez is iffy at best and Zavada can’t see past his mustache when he pitches from the stretch.”  Because times are lean for saves in a few of my leagues, I’ll cop to grabbing the first two guys.  Careful about going with any of them if you don’t need saves.  But really, who doesn’t need saves?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Krispie Young – In America, everyone gets a 2nd chance — John Travolta, Michael Vick and the police officer from The Village People.  Maybe people get 2nd chances in Kathmandu.  I don’t know.  I’ve never heard anyone say, “Everyone gets a 2nd chance in Kathmandu.”  Krispie returns to the majors and should be play nearly every day.  What can we expect?  Nothing.  How’s that optimism?  But what can he do?  Well, he’s been hot in his recent Triple-A stint and he had a decent 2nd half last year.  Absolute ceiling of expectations would be 4 homers and 4 steals in September.  It’s not going to save your team, but it could help.

Scott Kazmir – In case you don’t have cable in your dungeon, Kazmir was traded to the Angels.  Maybe going out to Dave & Buster’s after every game, rather than Hooters will help focus Spazmir, but I have my doubts.  He’s been no joy to own thus far this year, and I’m skeptical that he suddenly will turn things around.

Andy Sonnanstine – He’ll get the call this Tuesday to replace Kazmir.  And, as you know, Tuesday is the new hump day.

Jake Peavy – His elbow had a “recurrence of tightness.”  Sounds like a bad Ashton Kutcher movie.  Oh, wait, they’re all bad.  Hey, look at me, I Twitter!  I’m Ashton Kutcher!  I’m in movies opposite Anne Heche! Sorry, I don’t like Kutcher.  So, Peavy’s having problems with his elbow… Well, I didn’t expect him to save many teams in September, but I did think he could be helpful.  Now, not so sure.  If you have no room on your DL, I’d consider dropping him.

Akinori Iwamura – HR yesterday.  Sitting under your MI trellis with Everth Cabrera, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez and Akinori walks up with a nice glass of iced tea.  Do you ask someone to get up so Aki can sit down?  Right now, Iwamura’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but that could change if he hits.  But really the best thing you can hope for from him is Runs and only if he’s at the top of the lineup.

Joba Chamberlain – 3 IP, 2 ER.  The Yankees said they were abandoning Joba Rules (skipping him).  But it seems like they’re just altering the rules to include starting him but then pulling him early in games (after 35 pitches on Sunday).  That does no one any good in fantasy.  Punt!

Jermaine Dye – HR yesterday as he went 2-for-11 over the weekend with one RBI.  I’m still fine with abandoning him.  Don’t look back in anger, Liam.

Matt Kemp – HR yesterday and recently he’s been batting in the top half of the lineup.  A commenter asked me if I would draft Sizemore or Kemp first in 2010.  At first I said Sizemore, but it’s very close and I could see February Grey changing his mind on that.  Kemp really has been that great this year.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  His run of quality starts continues.  I don’t play for Wins because they’re hard to predict, but I will say Arroyo has been miserably unlucky… Or maybe the Reds have just been miserably bad.  Either way, Arroyo’s not a great bet for wins, but he’s been solid in ratios.

Sean West – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Has a respectable ERA (4.22) but a terrible K/BB ratio (47/35).  He gets the Nationals and the Mets in his next two starts.  To some that may sound like the cat’s meow and the cat’s pajamas.  Well, I’m not a cat person.

Adrian Gonzalez – Sat out two straight days with a bicep(s?) injury.  He pinch hit though on Sunday so it shouldn’t be too serious.  I did enjoy seeing Oscar Salazar batting third yesterday.  He’s the 1st baseman; first basemen bat 3rd!  Bonkers, I tell ya.  Bonkers…  Oh, but it did work as Salazar went 3-for-4.  Inconceivable!

Feliz Pie – Has 3 homers in the last four games while batting near .400 over the last week.  That’s some tasty pee-ay.

Paul Byrd – 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER as he got the start for the Sawx.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  In other news, are you kidding me?!

Julio Borbon – Only got on base once and he stole a base.  Can someone conference call Alcides Escobar and Borbon so we can get Alcides running?  I’ll moderate/translate.  Anyone know how to say SAGNOF in Spanish?

Carlos Zambrano – 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners.  This ain’t exactly like predicting in 1975 that OJ Simpson will one day kill his wife, but end up in prison for trying to steal his own memorabilia, but when you can’t get out of the 4th inning vs. the Mets something is not right.

Kendry Morales – 2-for-4 with his 30th homer yesterday.  He hits .311 on the year as he nears 100 RBIs.  Still, I get the feeling he might be underrated next year.

Zach Greinke – 1 hitter vs. the Mariners.  Hopefully, the BBWAA can skim their eyes to the right of his Win total.

Russell Branyan – Headed to the DL.  But, wait, who’s going to give me my 1-for-12 with a homer every third game?  Later, Branyan.  Way to regress to your subpar norm in the 2nd half.

Carlos Gonzalez – Returned with a stolen base.  Hopefully, CarGo can pick up where he left off before his steak and ail.

Jake Peavy limped away into the sunset with a walking cast and a .98 difference between his ERA and his FIP, which means his ERA could’ve been below a 3 when he went down.  Pardon me as I cry into a bowl of beer-battered onion rings.  Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and a frozen Ted Williams are standing on a cloud somewhere mocking us.  Baseball gods, why didn’t you take Joe Blanton?  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs.  If your guy is on the list, there’s hope.  Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you! (FYI, I did this on Sunday, so the numbers may be slightly off, but the gist remains.  Oh, and loved loved loved what Merchant Ivory did with The Gist Remains.)

Jorge de la Rosa – 1.89.  Member what I said two sentences ago about trading for these guys?  Yeah, ignore that for this guy.  He’s a very risky starter.  Caveat Jorge.

Carl Pavano – 1.63.  Has a 5.73 ERA and a 4.10 FIP.  Hmm… Are these buy lows?  Or just “Continue to Ignores?”  Good question, Razzball reader.  I’m ignoring Pavano.

Andy Sonnanstine – 1.25.  These FIP lists never work out the way I want them too.  I’m not going after Sonnanstine either.

Francisco Liriano – 1.09.  How does that quote go?  Best intentions is a dish best served without any intentions?  Is that it?  Yeah, Liriano’s sitting on a 4.82 FIP.  So he’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s still not good.

Justin Verlander – 1.05.  Wow, he has a 3.39 ERA and a 2.34 FIP, while striking out almost 11 batters per nine.  I know, Greinke, Greinke, Greinke… but Verlander could win the Cy Young this year.  Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…

Jon Lester – .95.  Over 10 K/9 and under 3 BB/9.  Then throw in a team that will give him run support.  Lester!

Scott Baker – .92. There were some trying times early on for Baker’s owners, but his June has been terrific.  He’s still an injury risk, but I’d own him at this point.

Joel Pineiro – .86.  Ignoreio.

Gavin Floyd – .85. Has a 3.80 FIP, which makes him someone that’s worth being on your team rather than waivers.

Javier Vazquez – .75.  Could be below a 3 ERA right now… If only Cox could pull him from the game in, say, the 6th then pitch him again in the 7th.

With 2 HRs yesterday, Adam Lind now has 36/11/43/.313 on the year.  I know, Cody Ross has looked good for stretches.   Even Aaron Rowand has had a week or two here and there.  But why are people asking me if Adam Lind should be sold off or worse dropped?  You don’t want 85/27/100/.285?  I know he was as boring as dog balls for the month of May.  Well, he’s batting near-.500 in June.  He’s shoved into the middle of the Blue Jays lineup like a Jenga piece no one will touch.  Heart. Of. The. Lineup.  Dear Razzball reader, let’s look at his OBP, shall we?  He had a .380 OBP in 1500+ ABs in the minors and a .377 OBP so far this year.  In the minors, he had a .318 average, he has a .313 average this year.  He has power potential AND can hit for average.  (Caps for emphasis and the hyperopic.)  Fastballs?  He likes them.  Breaking balls?  Don’t bother him.  Sure, it took him until 25 to develop into a major leaguer, but so what?  What were you doing at 25?  I was trying to figure what I wanted to do at 26.  Lind’s biggest drawback, he can’t field.  Holy heffin’ hey in the screw hole, that doesn’t matter to us.  Lind’s good, don’t be scared.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Hamilton – Out 4-6 weeks with an abdominal tear.  His owners out 4-6 weeks with tears.

Jose Valverde – Fist pumps could be back as early as this weekend.  Trade Hawkins!  Joking.  Unless you can… No, that’s wrong.  But really what is right without someone doing wrong?  Nietzsche!

C.J. Wilson – I was remiss in leaving him off yesterday’s roundup.  Frank² could be headed to the DL again with shoulder soreness.  Wilson should be owned in all leagues.

Brandon McCarthy – Headed to the DL with a stress fracture of shoulder.  Votto feels for him, he has a stress fracture of his melon.

Chris Davis – 0-for-3, 3 Ks yesterday.  Has 87 Ks in 191 ABs.  Wow.  Listen to this from Matthew Berry, “I’m sticking with Davis.  Look, you didn’t draft him for his batting average anyway, and he is hitting for power with 12 home runs…. Keep in mind he was a career .302 hitter in the minors.”  Oh, okay.  Luckily, he only has two sides of his mouth.  If that is indeed his mouth he’s using.

Jason Marquis – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Leads the NL in Wins.  Yup, makes sense.

Torii Hunter – Sidelined with a nagging groin.  I had one of those when I was 19.  I almost went blind because of it.  Sorry, I hate to work blue.  Pun intended.

Chris Iannetta – Due back on Tuesday.  If you’re nursing some schmohawk catcher and Iannetta’s on waivers, act like ya know, MC Lyte.

Clint Barmes – Similar to Hamilton, he’s on a tear.  Only the good kind.  He’s 13-for-31 with a homer and 7 RBIs in his last 7 games.

Garrett Atkins – He’s not even starting anymore.

Randy Johnson - Didn’t he just pitch?  Nice, Giants.  Throw your 45-year-old on short rest.  What, are they trying to get out of an innings clause or something?

Armando Galarraga – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the White Sox, a team that has a .247 average against righties.  I’m not sure if anyone’s holding out hope Galarraga’s going to be good again like last year, well, he’s not.

Jeremy Bonderman – 4 IP, 6 ER and now the White Sox are .250 against righties.

Miguel Cabrera – Returned and went 0-for-7 in the doubleheader.  Hey, at least he’s back.  I have Jose Reyes and Carlos Quentin playing spades on my DL.

Alexei Ramirez - 5-for-9 with one homer in the doubleheader and now batting .261.  BTW, Alfonso Soriano hit .284 in April, Alexei hit .214.  Soriano hit .216 in May, Alexei hit .281.  Who will have the conch shell in June?

Gordon Beckham – 0 for his first 13 ABs.  Beckham, you’re proving Ozzie right.

Jose Contretras – One hit over eight innings as he returned from the minors, though for him it should be called the seniors.  He could very well get shelled in his next start.

Chipper Jones – HR yesterday, three in two days.  So this is why people own him… Cool, now when do I trade him?  When he sneezes?  Hiccups?  Someone, throw me a bone.

Nick Stavinoha – Went 0-for-4 wearing Pujols’s jersey.

Andy Sonnanstine – 7 IP, 5 ER.  Jeff Niemann stole his juice.

Sean West – 8 IP, 0 ER. I know, woo-hoo.  I looked at his 60 walks in 100 2/3 innings in Double A, his 22 walks in 42 2/3 innings in Triple A and I vomited on my wall and it spelled out, “Don’t pickup.”

Johnny Damon – 12th homer yesterday.  What’s his over/under set at for homers?  24?  I’m taking the over.  By 2.  Who wants some action?

Randy Choate – Maddon brought Choate into the 8th inning of a 4-3 game yesterday.  A game the Rays were losing.

Andrew McCutchen – 4-for-7 with 2 triples, batting leadoff as the unknown soldyjer’s light burns in the two hole.  McCutchen’s batting .400; somebody reach behind the Häagen-Dazs and take Ted Williams’s brain out of the freezer, he’s gonna wanna see this!  I’d sell McCutchen right now if you don’t need speed.

Josh Outman – 6 IP, 3 ER and has an ERA of 3.17.  I swear to you, he’s not this good, but he gets the Giants next time out.  All aboard!

Andrew Bailey – 2 days, 2 saves.  He’s the closer, guys.  Stop owning Ziegler, people in your league are starting to wonder if you’ve abandoned your team.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2-for-4 yesterday with 4 RBIs.  A homer the day before.  I’m not saying he’s God’s gift to cornermen, but as teams pitch around A-Gonz, Kouz could pick up some scraps.

David Ortiz – His doctor prescribed eyedrops to hopefully help with his hitting.  Who’s his optometrist, Victor Conte?

Last week in a barrage of me making sense, I looked at fantasy starters whose ERAs will get worst. Well, do onto others or turnabout is fair play or some other cliché leads me to this post — the inverse of last week’s or fantasy baseball starters who will get better.  If you weren’t around last week, I mentioned what FIP is; don’t really feel like going into it again and regular readers will tire anyway, so go back and read last week’s.  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!) (Note, Part Deux:  Because the list didn’t reveal enough buy lows amongst the biggest differences between ERA and FIP, I skipped down the list after Randy Johnson for the last two.)

Ricky Nolasco – Difference between ERA and FIP is 3.45.  Nolasco was a preseason “sleeper” from some fantasy ‘perts.  (I put the unironic, toolbaggy quotes around sleeper because Nolasco was talked about so much by some that he really wasn’t much of a sleeper anymore.)  Nolasco also showed up on Rudy’s risky pitcher post.  At this point, he’s a bargain because he can probably be bought for a tall boy of Schlitz.

Gavin Floyd – 2.71.  That sounds purdy!  Yeah, until you realize his ERA is at 7.71 so a correction of less than three isn’t all that great.

Andy Sonnanstine – 2.63.  Falls into the same category as Floyd.  Sure, he should be better, but not really anything worth getting caca-cuckoo over.

Carl Pavano – 2.26.  Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.  Guess I’m gonna have to turn this sucker to 14.

Justin Verlander – 1.93.  His ERA is at 4.29 and his FIP is at 2.36.  He has the fifth lowest FIP behind Greinke, Lincecum, Johan and Wandy.  Zoinks! (That’s a good zoinks, FYI.)

Tim Lincecum – 1.91.  Last week, we saw Johan was due for a slight correction, now we see on the other side Lincecum’s going to meet him somewhere in the middle.

Jon Lester – 1.76.  After last week’s buy/sell, I’ve spoken enough about Lester for at least two months.

Gil Meche – 1.72.  This one was surprising to me, so I went to look closer at his numbers and it does seem like he should be much better.  If you take nothing away from this post, I’d grab Meche off waivers.  He should be much better.

Josh Beckett – 1.71. This doesn’t surprise me.  Beckett’s numbers are terrible.  He’s not a terrible pitcher.

Scott Olsen – 1.61.  Blech.

Randy Johnson – 1.35.  Sorry, Mr. Mullet Man, but Randy Johnson has a better chance of winning an Edward James Olmos look-a-like contest than having a huge turnaround with a FIP of 5.51.

Javier Vazquez – 0.83.  Not a huge difference between his ERA and FIP, but, when you realize his ERA is at 3.71 and his FIP is below 3, it’s enough to get you very excited about Vazquez moving forward.  If his owner is fed up with his One Bad Inning Syndrome™, I’d try and buy him.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.78.  His FIP is 3.52, his K/9 is 8.02 and his BABIP is .332.  Coors is scary like Roseanne Barr sans makeup, but I’d take a chance on Ubaldo.