Fantasy Baseball Advice

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.

Evan Longoria went 0-for-4 yesterday.  He’s been kinda terrible for about three months now.  Man, third base is a minefield.  Now I’m not putting Longoria in the Wright Sucks Then Gets Conked On The Head box.  No, he hasn’t been nearly that bad.  But two separate months of an under .240 average and two months of zero steals and tw0 months of 1 steal and this sentence has nearly as many ands as, “In the saying, “Fish-and-Chips,” it’s necessary to have a hyphen between “fish” and “and,” and “and” and “chips.”  I’m not ready to proclaim where Longoria should be drafted next year.  I’m Grey and I make proclamations! But Longoria isn’t exactly setting the world afire with flames shooting out of his areolas.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Kazmir – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Sonavabench!  I can’t stand Rays pitchers this year.  They’re sucking the life out of me.  One day it’s Shields pitching terribly in my lineup, then it’s him pitching well on my bench. Then Kazmir follows suit.  I might need to take a sabbatical next year from the Rays pitchers.

J.P. Howell – 1 IP, 1 ER. This is the 2nd game in a row Thurston and Lovey’s son has blown.

Oliver Perez – Out for the season with surgery to his knee.  In September, I’m fully expecting the Mets to play their home games in candy stripper outfits.

Brad Penny – Wanted out of Boston and he got it.  He cited irreconcilable differences.  Sox just said he sucked.

Chad Qualls – Placed on waivers, but it’ll take a John Holmes-sized package to get him from the Diamondbacks.  If he’s shown the door, I’d expect Rauch to get the saves.  Oh, and he blew a save last night.  Yay.

Justin Upton – Back from his oblique strain.  Oh, and he went 1-for-3.  Non-sarcastic yay.

Jonathan Sanchez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Has been solid since his no-hitter.  Somewhere, Buehrle realizes he should’ve renegotiated his deal with the devil.

Brian Wilson – Medders got the save yesterday (quite easily actually), but I think it was just because Medders was warming up to enter a losing game, then one of The Flying Molina Brothers put the Giants into a save situation with 2 outs in the 8th.

David Ortiz – 2 HRs yesterday.  Has 22 homers on the year while batting .227.  Who are you, Dave Kingman?

Josh Johnson – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks vs. the Mets.  Is it only me or do you, loyal Razzball reader, also expect a shutout from your pitcher when they face the Mets and are upset when all you get is a s0lid start?

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Was outpitched by Pineiro.  What’s worse, I’m not surprised.  I wanna say to Oswalt, “You gonna let this punk get away with that?  What’s the matter with you?  What’s the world comin’ to?”

Eric Young Jr. – 2-for-4, but caught stealing again.  On the bright side, he’s at least attempting steals.  I’m farting in your general direction, Alcides Escobar.

Andre Ethier – 3-for-4, 2 HRs.  Mentioned so I don’t get hate mail from Andre Ethier’s Mom.

Jack Cust – HR yesterday.  Member two days ago how I said when he gets hot, he gets scorching?  He’s now batting near .600 for the last week.

Jose Lopez – HR yesterday.  Has 4 homers in the last week.  Cool, but I dropped him back in May and don’t regret it.

Trevor Hoffman – Placed on waivers.  These things usually don’t go through.  Keep that in mind.  But I’d expect Coffey to grab Brewers saves in September if The Hoff’s off.

Nick Johnson – Heads to the DL.  If you set your watch by Johnson’s DL trips, you were probably pretty tardy this year as it took him much longer than usual to hit the infirmary.

Brad Lidge – Before yesterday’s game, Manuel said Lidge will remain the Phillies closer.  So, of course, Madson came on for the save.  And blew it.  Give Scott Eyre the ball!  I keed.  Lidge had worked a few days in a row, so I think Lidge is still the guy… To blow saves.

Cole Hamels – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  I watched a good chunk of this game.  The Pirates had a lot of opportunities to score.  Love to sit here (and I am sitting) and tell you Hamels is gonna be just fine going forward, but I’d be lying.  He might be, but this game shouldn’t be used as an indication either way.

Matt LaPorta – 2-for-4 and a HR yesterday.  He now has at least one hit in every game since his recall.  Now Eric Wedge must think harder about ways to bench him.

Andy Pettitte – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  I don’t think I’ve owned a Yankee pitcher in five years.  Too many headaches with the division and now the ballpark.  Pettitte’s one of those I wouldn’t have owned (though used to when he was on the Astros).  But through it all, Pettitte has pitched well this year.  Nothing incredible (4.18 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, around 7 K/9), but solid.

Alfonso Soriano – May need knee surgery.  No word if he’ll have it sooner than later.  My guess is later, but if he does it sooner, then suddenly we have a some playing time for Jake Fox.  Yes, Soriano’s fallen far when I’m hoping for knee surgery and I own him in a league.

Milton Bradley – HR yesterday.  Before the game, he talked about how much he hates Chicago, “I’m talking about hatred, period. I’m talking about when I go to eat at a restaurant. I’ve got to listen to the waiters badmouthing me at another table, sitting in a restaurant.”  Milton needs to stop eating at Dick’s Last Resort.

After I posted the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there was a public outcry in the comments.  Where is so and so?!  It was as if I butchered their bunny rabbit like the Roger and Me lady.  No one’s butchering your bunny rabbit, friend.  Your bunny rabbit’s fine.  Unfortunately, I don’t think your bunny rabbit’s a top 40 starter.  Your bunny rabbit, friend, is a top 60 starter.  How’s dem carrots?  BTW, while the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings are the gospel, they aren’t set in stone.  I update them occasionally.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Justin Verlander – This is the first tier of these starters.  This tier I call, “Guys I took grief for leaving off my top 40 starters list.”  Every other ‘pert has Verlander in the 25 to 30 range.  There’s lots of anecdotal evidence why he wasn’t that good last year.  The new pitching coach picked out a flaw in his mechanics, at Tigerfest Verlander admitted his arm was tired from 2006, Inge’s butt pats aren’t as firm as Pudge’s, etc.  Maybe these things are true, or maybe no one wants to admit Verlander is not the pitcher he showed in 2006.  In 2006, Verlander left a huge amount of baserunners on.  His ERA that year was 3.63.  His FIP ERA, which is basically ERA without fielding, was 4.35.  So he was really a 4.35 ERA pitcher the year that he was tremendous.  Then throw in his Ks have gone down, his walks have gone up.  I purposely left him off the top 40 starters because I don’t want him on any team at the spot he’s being drafted.  In the end, Verlander is a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP pitcher.  That’s fine, it’s just not a 25 to 30 range pitcher like others would have you believe.  2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160

42. Zach Grienke – I think Rudy’s 20 risky pitchers post says it all on Greinke.  I’m especially concerned this year about pitchers who went from reliever to starter in the last two years.  Remember Reliever to Starter to DL.  It’s not that I won’t draft one, I just want to preach caution.  Then you throw in the fact, Greinke’s two years removed from a nervous breakdown and he plays for the Royals.  Put on the breaks, people.  The Royals are not this year’s Rays.  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130 and starts missed.

43. Brett Myers – See Greinke, Zach or 1/18th of an inch above.  2009 Projections:  12-5/4.30/1.32/130 and starts missed.

44. Ted Lilly – Also mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  Caveat emptor as they say in Honduras.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160

45. Ryan Dempster – See Myers, Brett then see Greinke, Zach then see 20 risky pitchers post.  I’m probably most concerned about Dempster from this tier.  His 2008 screams outlier.  Here, listen… Dempster’s 2008 season, “Outlier!”  See?  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120 and starts missed.

46. Derek Lowe – This is a new tier.  I call this tier, “Guys I’d draft to be my third or fourth starter.”  This tier goes from here to Kuroda.  Derek Lowe has proven himself to be a reliable workhorse, just nothing that flashy in the K department.  A steady pitcher from one or two of your starters helps you when you take fliers on other guys cough David Price cough.  I already went over Derek Lowe’s move to the Braves in detail.  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.22/140

47. Clayton Kershaw – The walks worry me.  52 in 107.2 innings is P to the lenty.  That’s why he’s this low.  The Ks have me excited.  He’s definitely worth a flier.  I do think he can outperform this ranking.  2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140

48. Jair Jurrjens – There’s concern about his jump in pitches/innings last year from the previous year, but he throws a low percentage of curves/sliders and lots of sinking fastballs.  He’s not going to be an ace, but there’s good reason to believe he can be a solid number two to three.  2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150

49. Ubaldo Jimenez – Walk numbers like Kershaw but in Coors would usually lead me to tell you to pass, but his stuff is nasty.  Like first name ain’t baby nasty.  I’d be careful about the leagues where I grabbed Jimenez though.  Walks in Coors could explode in your face in any league shallower than 12 team ones.  2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165

50. Fausto Carmona – Didn’t like him last year.  I like him this year.  Last year, he had a lot going against him.  This year he still has no Ks against him.  So I don’t like him that much.  Everything in moderation, except moderation. You can quote me on that or whoever I just bogarted it from.  2009 Projections:  14-9/4.00/1.25/120

51. John Maine – He was pitching hurt last year and losing some speed on his fastball when he looked like crizz-ap.  I don’t think he’s going to be an ace, but he could move up these rankings if he is indeed healthy in the spring, which he is claiming he will be.  2009 Projections:  13-7/3.85/1.35/150

52. Scott Baker – Mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post and had a high amount of men left on base, but has enough ability to induce strikeouts to make me like him to an extent.  I’m a bit of a whore for Ks if you haven’t noticed. 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150

53. Andy Pettitte – I don’t want Pettitte in all leagues just those AL-Only ones.  He’s way past the point of “accidentally” backing his ass up into a Clemens syringe.  2009 Projections:  15-10/4.40/1.40/160

54. Hiroki Kuroda – Doesn’t have the K/9 ratio to get too excited about and he was one of the largest FLAKES in the majors last year.  (A FLAKE is basically a pitcher who goes from excellent to unusable from start to start.  A FLAKE is also Manny Ramirez.)  2009 Projections:  13-9/3.90/1.25/120

55. Oliver Perez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pelfrey.  I call this tier.  “No thanks.”  Perez can be great.  Doesn’t matter, I’m off him like black off rice.  2009 Projections:  14-10/4.50/1.42/190

56. Gavin Floyd – Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.  I just threw up a little in Gavin Floyd’s mouth.  2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140

57. Jeremy Bonderman – Bonderman’s career took a left turn down an alley in the red light district of Amsterdam and now it’s living with an STD in Copenhagen and it changed its name to Jan Lingön Strudel.  Until Jan Lingön Strudel shows me a year where he’s worthwhile, I’m not drafting him.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.40/125

58. Armando Galarraga – He had a FIP (ERA independent of fielding) of 4.88 compared to his real world 3.88.  Or, I guess, imaginary world.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.26/110

59. Chris Carpenter – There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.  It’s not worth the ulcer.  2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110 in 20 starts

60. Andy Sonnastine – Not that you thought I was a prostitute, but I wouldn’t touch him if you paid me.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  If you want to read a contrary opinion, Fangraphs likes him in 2009.  You say tomato, I say marginal starter who doesn’t strikeout enough hitters. 2009 Projections:  9-9/4.50/1.30/100

61. Joe Saunders – What I said about Sonnastine² 2009 Projections:  11-7/4.15/1.26/95

62. Mike Pelfrey – What I said about Sonnastine³ Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  10-10/4.50/1.40/100

63. Justin Duchscherer – Because this awful tier just won’t end, I had to make this the top 63 starters plus 2 post.  Are you happy with yourself, Justin Dook-sheer?  2009 Projections:  5-7/3.85/1.15/70 and missed starts.

After the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Wandy Rodriguez – I already went over why Wandy’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  If you don’t want to read it, that’s on you.  2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160

Jeremy Guthrie – Anyone who has read Razzball for longer than a minute (not an Urbandictionary minute which is actually long) knows that I love me some Guthrie.  Hopefully he continues to be underrated.  2009 Projections:  12-10/3.90/1.25/130

Not Krispie Young. I’m talking about the lanky, San Diego pitcher, Chris Young. (Though some may say Krispie is also a sleeper.) Last year, POO-holes put a little extra stank on a rope right back at Young’s nose.  Young ended up only starting 18 games and a few of those starts were obviously just, “Let’s see if he can start and not crawl into a little ball cause Pujols put the fear of Xenu into him.”  By the end of the season, Chris Young put a string of four consecutive starts together with a 1.55 ERA, including a September two-hitter against the playoff-bound Brewers.  Chris Young should be back in 2009 in a big non-skull fracture type way. Does that make you giddy? It does it for me. Anyway, let’s see what we can expect of Chris Young in 2009 and why he’s a fantasy sleeper.

In 2007, Chris Young had an ERA of 3.12, but post-All-Star break he only had an ERA of 4.80 as he seemed to hit a wall with a tired arm. This would make sense since he came off a season of 164.2 and 179.1 in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Guess how many innings Chris Young threw in 2008? Nope, lower. Even lower! 102 innings. After he throws 175 innings in 2009, I might be cautious in 2010, but right now I don’t care. Do you? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a year from Chris Young of 175 IP and a 3.50 ERA.  The best part is Young isn’t going to be drafted high at all. He’ll prolly go around fourth fantasy starter territory, say 170.  I’ve seen him drafted in the same ballpark as Andy Sonnanstine, Andy Pettitte, Jon Garland and Jeff Francis. For a guy who will be drafted as a fourth starter, but give you 2nd starter numbers, Chris Young is a great fantasy sleeper for 2009.