Fantasy Baseball Advice

You know it’s September when I’m highlighting a guy that could possibly give you maybe one week of just slightly better-than-average stats.  Enter stage left, Mark Ellis. Yesterday, he went 3-for-3 with his 4th homer on the season.  Is there a meh emoticon?  That’s Mark Ellis.  He’s a big bottle of “Um, what the hey, I’ll grab Mark Ellis.”  He is the guy on waivers that, even when hot, you don’t feel like the three clicks of the mouse to pick him up are worth it.  I hear ya.  I’m not exactly dropping superlatives on him like I’m Donald Trump describing anything.  He’s now batting near .400 in September.  Don’t make me tell you to grab him every day this week.  Just get him now.  He’s hot.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Jason LaRue – Due to multiple kicks to the face by Johnny Lawrence Cueto, LaRue’s retiring.  Cueto obviously misunderstood when so many pitchers said they’d love to face LaRue.

Travis Wood – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Had some unfounded concerns for this start.  He goes to Petco next.  I’d get Wood.  I mean… No, that’s what I mean.

Chris Johnson – 2-for-3 with his third homer in the last ten games.  Compared to, say, Kung Fu Panda, Johnson looks like Mike Schmidt.

Michael Bourn – Out with an oblique strain.  Sounds like he might be sidelined until late in the week, at least.  It’s The Bourn Calamity.

Joe Blanton – 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Really deserved the win in this one.  Not Blanton.  Me!  I deserved it.  I can’t believe I’m going to lose leagues because I can’t buy a win.

Jayson Werth – 3-for-5 with the South Philly special slam & legs.  BTW, Jayson Werth seems way more likely to know and/or talk to Turtle instead of Ryan Howard.  You know, Turtle from that show you watch that you have no idea why you watch.

Mark Teixeira – Who has one sore thumb?  This guy!

Andy Pettitte – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Nice start for a guy who hasn’t toed the major league rubber in two months.  The problem, he gets the Red Sox next.  I wouldn’t go near that start in most leagues.

Luke Scott – 2-for-3 with his 27th homer.  If he hits one homer, he always hits another homer within the week.  The preceding was off of memory and no actual facts.

Joe Mauer – Has a jammed knee and is day-to-day, which is day-o to day-o in Jamaica.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. the A’s.  This should’ve been an easy start for Liriano.  An easy start!  Grrr…

Shin-Soo Choo – 2-for-4 with his 4th homer in three games.  He reminds me of a slightly younger, much more Korean Bobby Abreu.

Bobby Abreu – Speaking of the 20/20 machine, Abreu hit two homers yesterday to bring his line to 83/20/75/.255/21 for one of those joyless 20/20 campaigns.

Fernando Rodney – Blew the save on Saturday and the Sciosciapath said, “”I have a lot of confidence in Fernando. One got away tonight, unfortunately. But we’re comfortable with the guys out there to hold leads. It’s not going to happen all the time.”  So, of course, Jordan Walden got the save on Sunday.  In fairness to Scioscia, Rodney had pitched two days in a row.

Mike Napoli – Out with a forearm strain that occurred from his constant pulling for playing time.

Chris Narveson – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K.  If it’s any consolation, it’s obviously not the best of luck when you give up six earned and only 8 baserunners.

Barry Enright – Uncle Barry is shutdown for the season.  Should free him up to tell bawdy jokes and complain about his wife’s cooking.

Daniel Hudson – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  On the Diamondbacks, his WHIP is under 1 and his ERA is 1.65 in 71 innings with 65 Ks.  Yeah, that’s better than that other pitcher you’re thinking of.  And that one.

Adrian Beltre – Out with a sore wrist, but I’m guessing he’ll be playing Monday.  Wild horses on speed (like in the underrated Ted Danson/Howie Mandel-starrer, A Fine Mess) couldn’t keep Beltre out for an extended period of time during a contract year.

J.D. Drew – Hit his 19th homer yesterday.  He’s actually pulled off the rare feat of hitting 19 homers and not once getting hot enough for an extended period of time to be usable in fantasy.

Jon Lester – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has a 3.06 ERA on the year and more Ks than IP.  I’ll admit it, I kinda love Lester.

Phil Coke – 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  Before getting rocked, Leyland said, until Valverde is ready to go, he’ll be going with Coke.  Ron Washington said that’s a good move.  After getting rocked, I don’t think it’ll be that clear cut.  Perry could see some saves.

Tommy Hunter – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 K.  I’m not a huge Hunter fan, but he gets the A’s and M’s as his final two starts.  That ain’t bad.

Jose Guillen – 2-for-4, 6 RBIs.  He was almost the lead for this post and I think you should grab him as the hot outfielder off of waivers.  He’s hitting near .400 over the last week with two homers.  Trust me, pick him up.

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Lowe’s been pitching well of late and he gets the Nats next.  I’d grab him.

Jeff Samardzija – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. the Marlins and pitched well against the Cards his last time out, the same Cards he gets again in his next start.  It’s still not an advisable start with his 7 BBs to 5 Ks in his last two starts.

Welington Castillo – 2-for-4 with his first career homer.  Showed some power in Iowa, but he’s a hacker that could be a .220 hitter.  He’ll probably split time with Koyie Hill and isn’t worth picking up unless he gets crazy hot or you’re just crazy crazy.

Tyler Colvin – Will miss the rest of the season after being impaled by a broken bat.  He should be fine, confirming he is not a vampire.

Geovany Soto – Out for the season with shoulder surgery.  The Koyie Hill Fan Club, that affectionately refers to itself as The Koy Pond, celebrated his potential increase in playing time at Coyote Ugly but in the Evite they cheekily called it Koyie Ugly.

Andrew McCutchen has a mild sprain of the AC joint.  Sucks this is happening in the hottest part of the summer.  If something happened to my AC right now, I’d be so— The smart part of my brain buried under ten years of pot smoking and alcohol abuse whispers, “The AC joint has nothing to do with air conditioning.”  “Shut up, Smart Part Of My Brain.  If that’s even your real name.”  With this AC issue, he runs the risk of overheating– Smart Part Of My Brain, “No, seriously.  Google it.”  *Googling, reading WebMD, asking Smart Part Of My Brain to translate*  Oh, forget it, by the time I did all of that, the Pirates are already saying it’s a day-to-day issue.  He should be out there Monday or some time soon thereafter.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Paul Maholm – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 1 K as he threw his 2nd career shutout.  If you know when his first career shutout was, there’s a good chance you’re Paul Maholm.

Garrett Jones – So far in July (around a .200 average) it looks like someone left Robot Jones out in the rain, but yesterday he hit his 2nd homer in five games.

Roy Oswalt – He left his start after taking a liner off his ankle.  Here’s another vote for cankles.  You goofed, God, cankles are more durable.  Oswalt didn’t immediately leave the game because his head’s obviously harder than his ankles.  He should make his next start.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-4 with his 2nd steal in three games.  For those hurting for steals, SAGNOF!

Jhonny Peralta – Hit an inside the park home run that took 16.74 seconds or slower than 5 average home run trots, according to the Home Run Tracker.  It’s obviously not easy carrying around that extra H.

Kerry Wood – Hit the DL with a blister.  Now the Indians will be lucky to trade him for $24 in trinkets.  Chris Perez is the pickup.

Alex Sanabia – 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Alex, or Alejandro as he’s known within the Gaga community, is crazy raw.  So far he’s had two starts against the Nats and Diamondhacks and he’s averaging just over 4 innings per start.  At 21-years-old, I wouldn’t go near him outside of NL-Only leagues for now.  That could change.

Travis Wood – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Wondering if you should get Wood?  He gets the Astros next.

Yunel Escobar – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and his first home run of the season while batting .462 on the Blue Kays.  Thank God for those Canadian exchange rates!

Shaun Marcum – 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I didn’t voice this on the blog, but I was worried about Marcum returning from his elbow issue.  Looks like I was just being paranoid.  Who said that?!

Rickie Weeks – 3-for-4 and two homers.  I feel like every year I drafted Weeks and he was hurt has made this year possible.  Unfortunately, I don’t own him this year.  Thanks, Weeks.  I will now walk into traffic.

Trevor Hoffman – Could someone sneak into Miller Park and put blinking lights around the “596 Saves” banner so I can pretend there’s a reason I’m holding onto Hoffman?

Corey Hart – Word on the streets of the Tony Gwynn Rotunda is the Padres are interested in Corey Hart.  SELL!!!

Matt Diaz – 3-for-4 and his third homer.  Yes, it was off a lefty.  Yes, it’s that simple.

Jack Cust – Hit his third homer in the last four games.  Grab while hot.  Cust homerin’.

Vin Mazzaro – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  That’s nice, I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Carlos Pena – 6 for his last 10 with 2 homers.  Is it me or has he hit his 20 homers in, like, 4 games?  Either way, he’s hot and will probably get to 25 homers by next Sunday.

David Price – 5 IP, 7 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks.  If you risked starting him vs. the Yankees, you paid the Price.

Andy Pettitte – Could be out for a month as he heads to the DL with a Grade 1 groin strain.  I didn’t strain my groin until Grade 7.

A.J. Burnett – Hurt his hand bursting through the clubhouse doors, after originally saying that he hurt his hand while smashing a cream pie into Swisher’s face.  Guess he was trying to impress his mom, Carol.

Vicente Padilla – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 1 K.  I know it seems against everything you believe in, but you really should pick up Padilla.

Shin-Soo Choo – Hopes to return on Friday.  Wasn’t he supposed to be out for the rest of the season?  I have a feeling South Korea mentioned to Choo that he has military obligations if he’s not playing baseball.

Brian Roberts – Who?  Oh!  Brian Roberts, that’s right.  I think he plays 2nd base or something.  Juan Samuel, the guy they’re calling manager for now, says Roberts will return in less than 2 weeks.  If he was dropped, then take a flyer that Roberts returns at seventy-five percent.  I’m guessing it will be closer to fifty though.

Starlin Castro – 3-for-4 and his 2nd steal in the last four games.  He’s batting over .500 in the last week.  All aboard!

Jose Reyes – Last week, the Mets said Reyes wouldn’t return until he was 100% pain-free.  Now Reyes is set to return on Monday.  Does this mean Reyes is 100% pain-free or are the Mets a bunch of jokers?

Josh Beckett – Set to return on Friday.  Geez, were him and Brad Penny sharing doctors like they used to share Alyssa Milano?  I’d grab Beckett if he’s out there, but I wouldn’t start him in his first start back.

Scott Kazmir – To the DL with shoulder fatigue.  The shoulder had no comment, but it was seen waving a white flag.

Mike Napoli – 2-for-4 with his 16th homer.  Napoli generates more questions than any player about whether or not people should drop him.  I’m at a loss on how to communicate to you that you should just put a catcher, namely Napoli, in your catcher spot and let him be.  Ron Popeil said it best, “Set it and forget it.”  Obviously it’s my fault why people continue to ask whether they should drop Napoli.  So my question to you, loyal Razzball reader, is how do I communicate it better?  I can give you stats.  Napoli leads all major league catchers in homers.  On ESPN’s Player Rater, he’s a top five catcher for the season.  Oh, and his Mom once showed nipple to a room of people.  (Google “Mike Napoli” + Mom.  You’re welcome.)  What more do you need?  Help me help you.

Chris Denorfia – 4-for-4 with 2 homers.  I once dated a girl named Chris Denorfia.  That’s kinda weird.

Mat Latos – To the DL.  This was overheard this weekend in San Diego, “We have to skip Latos’ start to limit his workload, but then we’ll be left a man short.  Unless we were to enter his dream-within-a-dream-within-a-dream-within-a-dream and tell him to say he hurt his oblique while sneezing.”

John Danks had a no-hitter through 6 innings yesterday and ended with a line of 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 7 Ks.  That’s Jo-Da showing us how to harness midi-chlorians.  Top ten in the AL with my WHIP at 1.13 through 112 innings, have I.  Hmmm… Yessss.  A Yoda translator, I do not need because I am Jo-Da.   Danks has made a lot more hitters swing at pitches outside the strike zone this year — 21% in 2009 to over 28%, resulting in hitters making contact with almost 70% of pitches outside the strike zone compared to 57.7% last year.  That increase, naturally, has caused hitters to make a lot less solid contact.  This might be from his changeup, which he is throwing more of this year.  Or it could be The Force.  Either way, Danks is not suddenly an ace, but he is teetering between a fantasy #2 and #3.  You’ll take that, wrap it in a tortilla, load it up with guac and eat it.  Yes, you will.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Michael Brantley – Even though his gig is steals-a-plenty, Brantley hit his first homer as the rest of Cleveland dealt with a bad case of LeBronchitis.  Listen, Cleveland, it hurts real bad right now, but you still have Jake Westbrook.

Roy Oswalt – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks.  After the game, Oswalt took off his jersey and switched it with a fan who was wearing a Dodger jersey.  Oswalt said he saw it in the World Cup and thought it was a fun tradition.  He then winked, nudged and whispered, “Get me out of Houston.”

Lance Berkman – 3-for-4 with 2 homers and now has 5 homers in the last four games.  Watch out, The Ghost of Berkmans Past is haunting Houston.

Dan Wheeler – Picked up the save as Rafael Soriano was noticeably absent for the 2nd game in a row.  You know what I did immediately in every league?  I picked up Dan Wheeler.  The Rays have a bunch of guys who could step up.  Benoit’s been incredible, Balfour’s been decent, but Wheeler got the save yesterday so that was who I grabbed, in a non-perverse way.

Carl Crawford – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  Not sure what’s more surprising, that Crawford has ten homers or Longoria has only 13.  Yeah, Longoria probably.  Get some donks, Longo!

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He needed this quality start since he may have been pitching for his life with the whispers of Hellickson getting called up growing louder.  Or maybe those whispers were Michael and the other dead Lost people.  BTW, I’m still annoyed at the ending.  Okay, moving on.

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks.  You know Jeff Foxworthy with his “You know you’re a redneck…” shtick?  Well, along those lines, you know you are a total baseball nerd if you’re fascinated to see how the Padres will balance Latos’ workload with the need to pitch him as they make a run for the pennant.  Hey, Foxworthy’s isn’t funny either.

Ervin Santana – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 3.76 on the year with 100 Ks in 122 IP.  Barring the Yankees and at Arlington, that’s a guy you start every time out.  Cust kayin’.

Jose Reyes – Was reported early yesterday that Reyes was going to see a doctor for his oblique pain, which is a terrible sign… But then, as with most things with the Mets, things were not as they seemed.  Later in the day, it was reported that Reyes did not see a doctor and should be fine for Friday.  Stay tuned for at least five more conflicting reports regarding the Mets.

Matt LaPorta – Out for the third straight day for what was deemed an insignificant head bruise.  Can’t we send him back out there with Cervelli’s Great Gazoo helmet?

Jose Bautista – 1-for-4 with his 23rd homer.  All he does is hit homers!  No, really, that’s all he does.  He hit .179 in June.  Did he drink Dave Kingman’s Vitamin Water?

Adam Lind – Speaking of nothing but homers, Lind hit his 11th homer.  Courtesy of ESPN, Lind has one three hit game this year.  On Opening Day.  Yowsers!  (The “Yowsers!” was my addition, not ESPN.)

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He has 93 IP and 67 Ks, not terrific.  His matchups are wonky at times.  His WHIP of 1.16, very pretty.  Hey, take the good, take the bad…yadda yadda yadda….  The Facts of Life.

Rafael Furcal – 3-for-3 with his 6th homer and 14th steal.  Someone’s been staying at the Renaissance Hotel.

Clayton Kershaw – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 hits, no walks, 12 Ks and now has a 2.96 ERA with 128 Ks in 104 1/3 IP.  Member when his ERA was 4.99 on May 4th and you were buggin’ out and I told you to chill out?  We were younger then, you and I.  Fond memories.

Joe Mauer – 0-for-4, now hitting .297 with 4 homers.  Wow.  And.  Ow.  Where are the Mauer owners?  I never hear any complaints in the comments about him.  I know you’re out there.  Is all forgiven because of his precious Runs?  I am not disappointed at all.  Mauer gets me Runs.  I am glad I drafted him in the first round and converted his bobblehead into my water faucet.  The only water coming out of your Joe Mauer bobblehead is tears and you know it.  C’mon, vent a little, it’s good for the soul.

Scott Baker – 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  May not have been the easiest matchup but how many excuses are you going to make for Baker?  You guys had a good run– Actually, no, you had a terrible time together.  I’d part ways if there’s decent options on waivers.

Justin Morneau – After taking a knee to his melon, he sat out yesterday.  He’s day-to-day, or as they say in Jamaica, dayo-to-dayo.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Hasn’t given up more than 1 earned run in any game since June 12th.  Yup.

Felix Pie – 1-for-3 with a homer.  That is some tasty Pee-ay.

Gerardo Parra – 4-for-5 with 2 runs.  That line is pretty indicative of Parra.  He hits for average and little else.  He’s like a poor man’s Coghlan.  That’s not a compliment.

Andres Torres – 2-for-6 while hitting his 2nd homer in as many games.  Now has 3 homers and 3 steals in the last week.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but you don’t need to wait for that shizz.  He’s right here, guys and three girl readers.  Go at it.

Buster Posey – 2-for-4 with his 6th homer.  In 50 less games, he has better numbers on the year than Wieters.  He’ll probably be passing Mauer in value soon too.  Ouchy.  How’s that avoiding my advice to punt catcher treating you?  Now get me my mead!!!

Andy Pettitte – 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, all of you Pettitte owners, you’re living on borrowed time.  That is all.

Jason Giambi – 4-for-4, but I picked up Brad Eldred in my NL-Only league!  Freakin’ Giambino.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Aw, geez, now he’s just making it difficult for Keith Law to choose his NL Cy Young.  Pardon me, may I see your FIP? That was my Keith Law impersonation.  It needs work.

Shane Victorino – 3-for-4 with his 14th homer.  Uh-oh, he’s gaining on Ryan Howard.

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 1 ER and his third blown save.  Lidge loves to turn the vacuum from suck to blow.  He is more than capable of losing the closer job, but I don’t think it happens without a few more blown saves or an injury.

Ryan Madson – Was activated from the DL and blew his 3rd save.  Hey, just like old times!  For those out there with short-term memory — hey, who just wrote that?! — Madson wasn’t great before the trip to the DL, so there’s no reason to think he’s going to suddenly take over for Lidge.  I mean, it’s possible if Lidge continues to be crizzap or gets hurt, but it’s not happening right away.

Jayson Werth – Trade rumors are swirling that Werth might be moved.  His value would obviously take a hit, unless, of course, he moves to Coors or The House They Built Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built, but neither team really needs Werth.  These trade rumors may just be because Utley is sick of his tag team partner (<–not entirely safe for work, unless you work in the porn industry).  That news item reminds me when Willie McGee and Otis Nixon were rumored to be swapping paper bags with the eyes cut out.

I’m going to put the caveats up front.  Caveat #1) When I was younger, I played doctor on occasion, but I never went to med school.  Caveat #2) Trading for or grabbing injured pitchers off waivers is risky.  You get one setback and you could lose the pitcher for another month or two.  Then bam! you’re in September and shouting Emeril catchphrases.  Caveat #3)  The comparison I’m about to make may hold no weight whatsoever.  Caveat #4)  There’s no caveat #4, there never is.  Like an overworked truck driver, Jorge de la Rosa had a strain of his middle finger.  This injury is similar (this is the comparison that may be wonky) to Adam Wainwright’s middle finger strain in 2008.  When Wainwright returned, he had 6 of 7 solid starts.  Now if dlR uses his middle finger more than Wainwright or if his injury was more severe than Wainwright’s this may mean nothing.  My common sense says, “The injury is not an arm injury.  It’s your bugger off finger.”  I think Rosa can return with value, but there’s also risk attached.  So you have to weigh your pros and cons.  A big pro is the plus-sized girl at The Chicken Ranch.  Another big pro is that dlR strikes out a batter per inning.  Mmm… Strikeouts.  Anyway, here’s some more players I’d buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Pedro Alvarez – Sure, he doesn’t have a 45-year-old wife with kids that he doesn’t recognize like Jose Tabata or a cool nickname like The Dread Pirate (though I may try and push The Smashbuckler like that Mean Girl tried to push fetch), but Alvarez does have a good bat and upside.  Who else are you rocking at your corner infidel spot?  Headley?  Yeah, he’s disappointing at best and playing his home games at Petco at worst.

Dayan Viciedo – Just went over my Viciedo fantasy.  Thank me later.

Delmon Young – Four long years ago, Delmon was the hottest prospect in all of baseball and flinging bats at umpires.  Well, he’s still only 24 and now wearing Stickum.  I wouldn’t expect much more than 20 homers and 10 steals, which sounds like what Pacman Jones should give you, but Delmon has that ever elusive upside.  Wait, Jones has that too.  Hmm…

Tyler Colvin – Steve Stone Piniella decided to give Colvin a chance and so should fantasy owners for pop.  Not cola.

Travis Hafner – This is not implying that I think you should trade for Hafner.  No, this is simply if you see him on waivers, I’d grab him (with one hand supporting the back of his big melon head).

Aubrey Huff – Hey, it’s Pat the Bat’s fingercuff partner.  Huff has always been better in the 2nd half and now he’s hitting in the 1st half.  You do the math!

David DeJesus – Member that guy you picked up about a month ago because he was hitting?  Let’s call him Fred Lewis.  Yeah, that’s DeJesus.  Or DeJewis.

Mike Napoli – Why are people dropping him?  You need to chillax.  He’s playing 1st base as Mathis starts behind the plate.

Bronson Arroyo – Member how his post-All-Star Break ERA last year (2.24 ERA) fooled people into drafting him in March?  Ah, we did have a laugh at them, huh?  Me and you.  You don’t remember, do you?   Oh, well.  It’s close enough to the All-Star Break that you can now grab him.

Jon Niese – He’s really not that exciting but I’m ready to take a long pull from the Niese pipe (maybe could’ve reworded that).  Right now, Metco is ranked dead last in offense.  No reason why you can’t exploit that.

Clayton Richard – Has an ERA of 2.71, 1.28 WHIP and home games in Petco.  Imagine my surprise when I saw he’s only owned in 48% of ESPN leagues.  Imagine my further surprise when I started a sentence with “Imagine my surprise.”  Sounds like I’m writing in to Dear Abby.  Imagine my surprise when they showed up at my door three hours after the housewarming started!  Empty-handed!  Some people!

Dan Hudson – Stephen just went over him in the Dan Hudson for fantasy thingamawhosie.  With Peavy’s injury, we could see him in the landmark case, Sooner vs. Later.

Jason Hammel – Went over him in last week’s Buy/Sell.  But you knew that.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman’s really not as safe as he may seem, but for right now SAGNOF!

Brandon Lyon – Don’t think Lindstrom just flat-out loses the job without a few major breakdowns (which could happen), but he has complained about a sore back a few times recently.  Lindstrom sneezes and Lyon becomes the closer in Houston.  It’s the very lazy butterfly effect.

SELL

Austin Jackson – I told you to sell Jackson back in April because that’s when his value was at its highest.  If you wait until a guy actually stops hitting, then you’re not going to be able to sell them for anything.  You’re gonna just drop him.  And that’s about all you can do with Jackson now.

Carl Crawford – Let’s look at two lines.  50/6/36/.297/23 and 44/3/22/.317/22.  That’s Crawford  and Gardner, respectively.  I could’ve also posted Podsednik or Rajai or insert SAGNOF’er.  The steals are great and I don’t think Crawford necessarily falls apart.  I think he stays on the same pace he has been his whole career, which happens to have him stealing less bases in August and September than any other months.  So if you can get cheap steals and move Crawford for a big piece, I would.  Say Crawford for Ryan Howard then grab steals off waivers?  I’d do that.  Don’t trade Crawford for a free consultation at the Don Mossi Beautification Center.

Chase Headley – I’m moving on in the leagues where I own him.  Petco is where sleeper dreams go to die.  How’s that for a turn of a phrase?  Huh?  Okay, moving on…

Andy Pettitte – I wonder if you can convince the Yankee fan in your league that Pettitte’s year is for real because it’s not.  That reminds me of a run-in I had with Buddy Hackett about fifteen years ago.  I dropped heaps of admiration and he said, “Is that a diamond in your nose?  Oh no, it’s not.”  I stared.  Buddy, “No, it’s not!”  Blank stare.  “It’s snot!”  Turned out I had to wipe my nose.

What’s up, homes?  Why isn’t it officially summer yet?  Feels like it, right?  Okay, enough small talk.  Let’s get down to some fantasy baseball action!  (<–If you say that to a girl and she doesn’t immediately walk away, splash some water in your face, you’re dreaming.)  We’re taking our monthly look at xFIPs and what they can tell us for fantasy baseball.  If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months of the season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Livan Hernandez – -2.69.  Please regress already, I’m sick of talking about you.  Thank you!

Ubaldo Jimenez – -2.58.  Well, that’s not a good sign.  On the bright side, his xFIP is only 3.51.  You didn’t really think he’d end the year with a sub-1 ERA, did you?  You did?  Aw, I’m sorry.  Go take a nap, the world will still be here when you wake.

Jaime Garcia – -2.25.  This is upsetting for me, because I own this doode.  Yeah, he’s not a sub-2 ERA pitcher, unfortunately.  His xFIP isn’t obnoxiously bad though at 3.72.

Tim Hudson – -2.00.  Odd that he appeared in the Sell section of this Buy/Sell or was it my plan along?  There’s no right answer.  Just talk it out, you’ll get it.

David Price – -1.95.  This list has more quality names on it than I remember last month.  Price’s Ks are down and his BABIP is way down, showing he’s been lucky.  If you can pass him off in a trade like he’s the 2nd coming of Lincecum, I’d consider it.

Mike Leake – -1.80.  His Ks are just eh and his walks are kinda bleh.  If someone wants some of your rookie nookie, I’d let them at it.

Clay Buchholz – -1.78.  This is a little upsetting, but it’s fair to say he’s not a sub-3 ERA guy.  In the AL East, there’s really no sub-3 ERA guys.  Lester would be the closest.

Jeff Niemann – -1.73.  What’s this, the whole Rays pitching staff?  Here’s the thing, and there is a thing, the Rays defense is excellent so it’s helping a bit with the pitcher’s “luck.”  Still, I’m not a fan of Niemann and here he is, so there’s that.

Jon Garland – -1.58.  No relation to Judy (from what I know), but at some point he’s going to click his heels and pitch away from home and get rocked.

Andy Pettitte – -1.52.  I think it’s safe to say from Pettitte’s track record no one thinks he’s the pitcher he’s been these first 2 months.  Assuming he’s not taking steroids again.