Then one day Jed was hopin’ he could start; and Lugo and Scrappy Doo started fallin’ apart. This is an opening for good ol’ Jed. The kind to keep those taking late MI fliers fed. Said Yawkey is the place you ought to be. So he packed up his Wii to play with Papi. Ortiz, that is. Jed Lowrie is in, Julio Lugo is out and Nomar Garciaparra is so five minutes ago. Yo, whaddup, double play pardner? Not your knee, I assume. And the Jed Lowrie fantasy sleeper post is back on like Donkey Kong. Sure, the Sox are saying Julio Lugo may only be out a month, but he was ‘healthy’ last year and he lost playing time. Do the math! Anyway, here’s some more things I saw in spring training that pertains to fantasy baseball:
Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future. Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday. During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage. For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings. If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs. Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine? Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs. Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be? You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15? Who are you, Kelly Johnson? That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.
Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months. Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer. Yes, he looks like a child molester. It’s just matter of him getting healthy. He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest. If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft. Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him. No harm, no foul.
Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.
Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring. He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs. With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year. That’s not me jumping ship. I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.
Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far. If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.
Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early. He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers. Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base. If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.
Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday. If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.
Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen. Stay on fire, Emmanuel. Papadapolis will save you.
We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Pirates Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Raise the Jolly Roger.
1) 2008 was a tale of two halves for Freddy Sanchez. The 1st half was Dirty Sanchez (.226/.251/.304), the 2nd half was Steady Freddy (.346/.378/.483). Which Freddy Sanchez can we expect for 2009?
Freddy has been a heck of an enigma ever since winning the batting title in 2006. Even then I don’t think he was super-valuable fantasy asset due to a lack of patience and power, but since then it’s been all downhill. The Bucs are expecting Steady Freddy in ’09 because his shoulder bothered him for a good chunk of last year and it’s all healed up now, but even when he’s hitting, he’s not a great 2B fantasy option.
2) Nate McLouth went from battling for the starting CF position and leadoff spot to being the #3 hitter for much of the 2nd half. Can McLouth put together another 100/25/100/.270/15 year?
Nate started out on fire last year and dropped off a little bit in the second half, and I think some of that had to do with the losing of Bay and Nady behind him in the lineup. He’s not a #3 hitter (and I think manager John Russell has said he prefers Nate leading off), but it’s absolutely reasonable to think he’ll produce similar numbers this year.
3) What Pittsburgh player puts the irate in Pirate for you?
That would have been an easy one a year ago, but now that Ronny Paulino is gone, I’ll say Ian Snell because he’s “irate” the most often. Basically every time Snell loses a game or the Pirates go on a losing streak (often) you can bank on him having some quote in the paper the next day along the lines of “losing sucks, I hate it.” I’d be upset too if I burned a finger on my pitching hand while cooking chicken.
4) Pittsburgh had a few pleasant surprises for fantasy baseballers in 2008 in Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm. Who do you think are the best fantasy breakout candidates of 2009?
On the offense I (along with many people around/within the team) would say OF Brandon Moss and 3B Andy LaRoche, two guys who have great records as prospects but struggled with the Pirates after coming in the Bay trade last year. As for the pitchers, we don’t even know who’s going to be in the starting rotation (besides Paul Maholm, of course).
5) The theme song of the 1979 Pirates was ‘We Are Family’. What would be the best theme song for the post-Bondsian Pirates? A) “Hard Knock Life” by Jay-Z B) “So Far Away” by Dire Straits C) “Loser” by Beck D) “Saved The Best For Last” by Vanessa Williams
(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)
By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.
Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.
Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.
The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.
The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.
Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.
The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.
Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.
ESPN’s top “analyst,” Eric Karabell, lit a flame nugget under me when he decided to tout Frank Thomas as a big 2008 sleeper. That’s right, the soon-to-be 40 year-old, Toronto DH who limps around the bases. Seems to me that Karabell has been sleeping for the last ten years. You need to be an ESPN Outsider to read the entire Frank Thomas is a “big 2008 sleeper” hooey, but I’ll recycle the relevant rubbish here:
The Big Hurt isn’t young, has a limited ceiling and certainly isn’t the same player who put up Hall of Fame stats for more than a decade, but he’s hardly a bad option at this point. In fact, in one of the January drafts I had, Thomas was my 22nd-round pick, the second to last player I chose. I kept waiting and waiting and nobody wanted the guy. I was stacked on offense, and intended to use my utility spot for steals, but how could I turn down a shot at Thomas?
Utility spot filled with a diminishing-skills 40-year-old? This is mind numbing. Was Dave Roberts already off the board? How about Mike Schmidt? Greg Luzinski?
Karabaloney doesn’t say who was still on the board this late in the draft, but you absolutely have to take an upside guy (LaRoche, Kotchman, Votto, etc.) or round out your pitching with a quality middleman who might get you saves (Rodney, Broxton, Betancourt, etc.). If you take Frank Thomas, you’re just not trying hard enough or paying attention. The Big Limp is not hitting as many fly balls and his average is (updated) around .260 since 2001. Sure, he takes walks, but he should be lifted every time he gets on the basepaths. Watching him run is as painful as watching Claire Danes act. At age forty, if his career continues to decline (which there’s no reason to think it won’t), he’s lucky to go 22-80-.260 with a paltry 60 runs. As Rich Dad might say, that’s a liability not an asset. You’re welcome.
February 04, 2008By: Grey Category: Uncategorized1 Comment →
While watching the New York Football Giants leave the New England Patriots crying like a bunch of little girls who just learned that the American Girl store closes at 9 and not at 9:30 like their fathers assured them, I received a keeper question from Herb Urban, humorist and man with an unhealthy obsession with John Oates. (Being a baseball blog, you might think I’m talking about John Oates, the second rate catcher from the 1976-82ish era. You’d be wrong. Herb’s crackers over the short, mustachioed member of Hall and Oates.) Anyway, check out Herb’s site for yourself. Now onto the Andy LaRoche/Josh Fields’ keeper question.
Grey,
Sorry to keep asking for your input on young players. I took over a team in an indefinite keeper that was an utter mess and I’ve been trying to rebuild for the future all off-season. The previous owner only had Morneau, Cano, Mauer, Mariano Rivera and nothing else. I was able to turn those guys into Ian Kinsler, Rickie Weeks, Delmon Young, Nick Swisher, Brad Hawpe, Rich Hill, John Maine, Joe Nathan, Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Josh Fields, Jered Weaver and Andy LaRoche. So I’m trying to decide whether Fields, Weaver or LaRoche are worth keeping in a 12-team league. I have the first pick in the draft with all eyes on Billy Butler, unless I can trade for him.
Fields came to me with Nathan for Rivera, and strikes me as a very interesting guy to watch. Your thoughts on him will be greatly appreciated. I look forward to reading them, and promise to stop bugging you with questions about my team.
Thanks,
Herb
Herb,
First, that’s a Musharraf-type coup getting the players you did for what you had. Since this is an indefinite keeper league, you’re looking at hitting (LaRoche or Fields) over pitching (Weaver). I’d agree with that. If you can also keep Weaver, I’d consider it, but I don’t know what’s out there or how many players you can keep. At this point, you already seem to be keeping a lot. So I’m going to assume this is a battle between Andy LaRoche and Josh Fields. Let’s look at some projections.
Josh Fields — Rotowire projects 76/27/86/7/.267 with a .345 OBP. Our in-house statistician, Rudy Gamble, predicts Fields will have a season on par with Edwin Encarncion. Personally, I like Encarncion more than Fields for ‘08. Let’s assume Crede is traded to the Giants, which seems to be a deal that will happen. So Fields is starting and hitting some bombs with an average that will hurt you. Okay, now Andy LaRoche.
Andy LaRoche — Coincidentally, LaRoche places just about even with Fields on the preseason Rotowire charts. In a little more than a half season, Rotowire predicts LaRoche will be 66/12/51/1/.269 with a .385 OBP. In house, Rudy Gamble predicts a season no better than Brandon Inge. Personally, I really love LaRoche. He’s done all he can do in the minors, Nomar’s on his way out and his OBP is excellent. I see his numbers closer to 60/22/75/5/.310. My numbers are optimistic for ‘08, but this is a keeper league and he’s a top ten 3rd basemen as early as two years from now. Whereas, Fields makes me balk and I’m not sure he’ll ever be anything but a poor man’s Troy Glaus. I say go with LaRoche; he’s a maneater.
