Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Pirates Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?

1) Garrett Jones’s 2009, small sample talking or sign of things to come in 2010?

Can it be somewhere in between? On one hand, he hit 21 homers in 82 games and besides an early surge, he was fairly consistent over that time. Things like that don’t happen by complete accident. On the flip side, he’s played almost 600 games in Triple-A and his OPS there is below .800. That’s also not an accident. Which is to say, I’m willing to concede that Jones made some kind of step forward in 2009 and that he’s a better player than I ever expected, but he’s also not going to hit 40 homers in a season either. At least, I don’t think he is.

2) Andrew McCutchen, who Razzball has affectionately nicknamed The Dread Pirate, had a tremendous rookie year.  I’ve sung my praises for what we should expect in 2010.  What do you expect?

First off, I love that nickname and may, erm, pirate it for my own uses. Secondly, I’d expect maybe a little bit of a sophomore slump for ‘Cutch, if only because his .471 slugging percentage in 108 games with the Pirates was higher than his SLG in any full season in the minor leagues. There’s always the chance that 2009 represented a big step forward for McCutchen (his numbers at Triple-A were actually a little better than his numbers in Pittsburgh before his promotion), but if he tapers off to about a .400-.430 SLG with 12-15 homers for the full season, I wouldn’t be surprised. Like with Garrett Jones, it’s one of those things that we’re just going to have to watch and see.

3) Do you have any hope for Andy LaRoche or are the Pirates biding their time for Pedro Alvarez?

Maybe I’m crazy, but I do still have hope for LaRoche. He thumped the ball in May (.330/.411/.457) and September (.313/.359/.552) and while his final line wasn’t all that great, it was a big improvement over his struggles with the Dodgers and Pirates prior to 2009. He’s also got a good glove at third base, and the club seems hopeful that if Alvarez is able to stay at third base for a while, that LaRoche will be able to move to second, where his bat should play much better than it does at a corner.

4) Steve Pearce has 8 homers and a .304 OBP through 342 major league ABs over the course of 3 years.  Will he ever breakout or will Jones play first to make room for Church vs. righties?

The Pirates’ right field/first base situation is a pretty complicated one heading into this season. I think the team’s default position is to let Jones play right and give Jeff Clement the first shot at first base, then adjust based on how Clement performs, how Andy LaRoche is hitting at third base, where Pedro Alvarez is, whether Akinori Iwamura is still in a Pirate uniform by mid-season, and how Jose Tabata develops. Pearce seemingly gets lost in the shuffle there, except he’s the only right-handed player (besides Tabata, who I think probably needs a full season at Triple-A) in the mix. He has a pretty big platoon split in the minors (.991 OPS vs. lefties, .831 vs. righties) and so I think there’s some value in him spelling Jones, Clement, Church, Alvarez, or whoever at one of those position against tough lefties. I think his chances at playing every day are pretty much done, though (remember that he was only really a prospect because he was in the Pirates’ system in the first place, his one great year came because he was sort of bafflingly asked to repeat High-A after a good showing there the year before, and when he hit his way up to a September call-up that season McCutchen and the shell of Neil Walker were the Bucs’ only real prospects at that time, which caused people to get excited about him). And now my longest answer is about Steve Pearce. Great. This is life as a Pirate fan.
5) Back in the 80s, many Pirate players found themselves embroiled in baseball’s cocaine scandal of 1985.  It turned out that the players came upon the Devil’s Dandruff from a connection of their mascot, the Parrot.  Then when the trial came, the Parrot talked, turning state’s evidence and snitching out many Pirate players.  Nothing would ever happen like this now because:  A) The Parrot knows his place.  B) Since the 80s better, undetectable drugs have been designed to replace cocaine, like Red Bull. C) Lastings Milledge can’t stand snitches.

The answer has several components. One is that the Pirates have brought a cartoonish Pirate mascot (the Jolly Roger) into the fold, and he presumably has guns to keep the Parrot in line. The second is that no one on the team makes enough money to support a drug habit at the moment. The third is that it’s not so much that Lastings Milledge hates snitches, as I think he and Andrew McCutchen should film a low-budget cable access buddy-cop show that shows on local TV at 1 AM. I would watch this show.

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 2010 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  Last year, I punted 3rd base knowing I could get Mark Reynolds late.  This year, Stewart’s my sleeper du jour, but because of the lack of 3rd base options, he’s not even making it into the 10th round of most drafts.  That’s a bad sign.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Alex Rodriguez – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for A-Rod’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Longoria’s projections.

3. David Wright – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Wright’s projections.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Sandoval.  I call this tier, “You didn’t get a top 3rd baseman, so here you are.”  Zimmerman finally came into his own last year.  The homers might plateau around 30 and the average probably won’t go above .300… Then again, he’s only 25 years old and he has some speed potential…. Then again, the Nats have put the brakes on him to avoid injury.  Either either way, Zimmerman’s on the rise with solid power, Runs, RBIs and average.  Hmm… Sounds a lot like Youuuuuk.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Youkilis’s projections.

6. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Reynolds’s projections.

7. Pablo Sandoval – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Sandoval’s projections.

8. Chone Figgins – This is a new tier.  This is a one man tier.  I call this tier, “You better have some serious power from your middle infielders to support Figgy’s dearth.” Figgy’s Dearth is also a great speed metal band.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

9. Gordon Beckham – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Beltre.  I call this tier, “Upside, no upside, upside, no upside, no upside.”  I went over my Gordon Beckham fantasy already.  At that post, I said, “Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.”  Then I said, “It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.”  Finally, I said, “I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.”  Hmm… Gotta work on what quotes I pull.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

10. Michael Young – Which percentage doesn’t fit — 8.6%, 6.9%, 7.2% or 14.9%?  If you answered anything other than 14.9%, you might’ve stopped at the “or.”  Fair enough, I do that sometimes.  Those percentages were his last four years of HR/FB.  He’s really not a 20 homer hitter or.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

11. Ian Stewart – I went over Stewart’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  He also received an Ian Stewart sleeper thing-a-ma-whosie.

12. Aramis Ramirez – He’s Pablo Sandoval with injury concerns, a slightly lower average and no upside.  Aramis is only 31 so you may not want to write him off, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2006 so I’m writing him off.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

13. Chipper Jones – Last year, Chipper played in the most games in a season since 2003 and he had his worst season ever.  Hey, Chipper, maybe don’t push yourself so hard to play injured.  ‘09 wasn’t a sign that he can’t still hit .310, just some bad luck.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5

14. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “You might want to drop these guys from your team before May 1st.”  God knows Beltre had his balls busted enough last year, but in 449 ABs, he hit 8 homers.  So did Gregg Zaun.  The move to Fenway has to help a bit, right?  Sure, or at least that’s what I said.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10

15. Mark DeRosa – Is DeRosa a 20 homer hitter or a platoon player?  That’s something to *pinkie to mouth* ponderosa.  2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3

16. Jorge Cantu – I could’ve put Casey Blake here, but what fun is that?  Wait, what fun is Cantu? Yeah, true.  Cantu hit 7 homers in April then took a Taco Bell-sized dump for 4 months.  The batting woes may be attributed to a sore wrist.  In September, he started hitting again.  May have been due to his wrist coming around.  Then again, maybe you’ll want to drop him by mid-April.  It’s called a flier, ya’ll.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

17. Chris Davis – Only has 11 games at 3rd base so Davis may not have eligibility in your league.  This is a new tier.  This is the last tier and I call it, “Your last chance for some upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Davis’s projections.

18. Jake Fox – Went over my Jake Fox fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250

19. Alex Gordon – You know that scene in Notting Hill when Hugh Grant walks through the market and it goes from autumn to spring?  What, not lame enough?  Okay, here’s a lamer example.  You know when Bella is staring out the window in New Moon and the seasons change as the camera goes around her?  Yeah, that’s Alex Gordon staring at his career.  He’ll only be 26 in 2010 and he’s still capable of the upside he hinted at, oh, 4 years ago when he hit 29 homers and stole 22 bases in Double-A and followed that with a 15/14 year with the Royals in 2007, but it’s really getting to be now or never.  2010 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/12

20. Casey McGehee – I went over McGehee’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

20 1/2. Andy LaRoche – This guy needs Troy Dunn to find his upside.  I contemplated leaving LaRoche off entirely because I can’t imagine him putting together a season to make him worthwhile for fantasy, except for stretches when he can be grabbed off of waivers.  2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3

After the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s some guys, but these two stand out:

Chase Headley – First off, I’d draft Headley before LaRoche.  I only placed them in this order because I wanted to highlight Headley.  So consider him highlighted.  Headley can get 25 homers and steal 10 bases.  Will he?  Who am, Nostradumbass?  I don’t know.  But someone who can produce that should be getting more pub than he has.  I’m righting wrongs like a modern day superhero.  Well, not really, but I am wearing a cape.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10

Brandon Wood – The Angels trust him at 3rd about as much as The Old Man trusts Chumlee, but they gotta give Wood the keys to the Imperial at some point.  Don’t they?  2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7 <–optimistic, but whatever

Yesterday, Andy LaRoche made a last ditch effort for some of his parents’ love.  He went 5-for-5, with 2 homers, 4 Runs and 6 RBIs.  He had his best month of the season in September and he’ll still be 26 next year.  I might actually own Pirate players next year.  Weird!  BTW, the Pirates were playing in their final home game of the year in what has been a miserable decade season.  With this last opportunity for the Pirates to give their fans something to cheer about, the 3rd base coach put the brakes on LaRoche as he rounded 2nd heading to third on a long double.  Who cares right?  LaRoche needed a triple for the cycle!  Wait, it gets better.  Zach Duke is cruising for the entire game.  Runs into slight trouble in the 9th inning, but the Pirates have an 11-1 lead.  So what does the manager do with two outs, the never fear-inducing Blake DeWitt at-bat and Duke dealing with a very reasonable 103 pitch count?  He lifts Duke rather than let him get the complete game.  The Pirates deserve contraction.  /rant  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 IP, 10 baserunners, 3 ER and 7 runs total.  As he provided a Ticker Shock.

Garrett Jones – HR and steal yesterday as he went 2-for-5.  On the season, he’s sitting at 21 homers and 10 steals with a .305 average.  That’s in 292 at-bats.  I think Robot Jones might officially be overrated next year, unless everyone thinks he’ll be overrated which could make him underrated or just rated.  Hard to say.  If I had to guess, I think people will assume he’s a fluke and he’ll go later than he should.

Josh Beckett – Scratched from his start vs. the Jays.  I wouldn’t wait around to see if he starts again this season if you need starters.  Chances are the Sawx throw him for only a few innings as a tuneup for the playoffs, if they throw him at all.

Brett Gardner – Gardner, Melky, Hinske, Shelley “I Will High Five You So Hard Your Momma Feels It” Duncan, Miranda-Something-Or-Other, Ramiro Pena and Cervelli.  What is the Yankees lineup a day after clinching?  Yes, that’s right.  We would’ve also accepted, what the Yankees lineup would’ve l0oked like all year if they had the same injuries as the Mets?  For fantasy baseball purposes, this isn’t great that your Yanks are sitting, but I don’t think Girardi is going to want them rusty so the regulars should see at least 4 games this week.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  With only one start left on the year, his ERA is 2.61.  Zoinks!  Of course, I’d love for him to strikeout more guys, but it’s hard to argue with his year.  Of course, he’s no Wandwagon.  But who is?

Anibal Sanchez – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 walks and that’s why I wouldn’t ever start him.

John Danks – 9 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Every time I think I’m done with Danks (last game 6 IP, 7 ER), he pulls me back in with a start like this.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to like him again next year.

Cole Hamels – 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Damn you, Verducci Effect.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-5 as he had his second 4 hit game in three days while batting over .500 in the last week.  At 13 homers, 5 steals and a .313 average, he’s been one of the biggest surprises this year for me.  Since those numbers aren’t that overwhelming, you can imagine how much I expected of him this year.

Gabe Kapler – HR yesterday.  Now that’s how you break a fast.

Grant Balfour – Got the save yesterday because when the bottle stopped spinning it was pointing at him.

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks as the Angels win the West.  Count on most of the Angels lineup sitting or phoning it in tomorrow.  That’s a slight endorsement for the Rangers starter tomorrow, Feldman.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3, 3 Runs and a RBI when he was replaced by Millar.  No word if he left because of a serious injury or just to emphasis how scary it is that I care what happened to him.

Colby Rasmus – This video was shot exactly 500 yards from Colby Rasmus.  If you think that is bad, you should see the one for Chris Davis.  It’s just a guy singing honkytonk at a Dallas bar and striking out with every woman he tries to serenade.

Carlos Zambrano has managed to win 13 or more games for 6 straight years.  It wasn’t easy.  He had to get through a Sweatshop Foreman in Dusty Baker and a pitcher hater in Lou Piniella.  He’s managed 17 HRs in his career and has almost hit his weight (.240).  But, for some reason, he decides to lay down a bunt single and strains his hamstring trying to beat it out.  Somewhere Michael Barrett chuckles.  This sucks if you’re a Zambrano owner but doesn’t do much to change his value.  He’ll miss 3-4 starts and come back to pitch at about 4.00 ERA, solid Ks, and a Win every other start.  That’s assuming, though, he stops trying to emulate Juan Pierre.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 4 IP, 4 ER.  Walked in a run in the 1st.  There’s got to be a direct correlation between pitchers walking in a run and how undesirable they are for fantasy.  Maybe we can get Rudy to draw up a chart.

Alex Rodriguez – Farted yesterday.  Big news!

Alex Gonzalez – Headed to the DL.  Hey, who’s going to hit .220 while he’s out?  Don’t worry, the Red have Paul Janish and Jerry Hairston Jr.

Chris Iannetta – Hit his 5th home run yesterday and collected 4 RBIs to bring his total to 10.  John Baker has 2 home runs and 10 RBIs.  You’d swear all the questions I answer about these two schmohawks that one was remarkably better.   Here’s the deal with punting catcher.  They’re like scabs.  Just leave them alone!  Iannetta will have 17-20 HRs by September.  You don’t have to keep picking at him.

Mike Napoli – 4-for-4 yesterday.  Hey, it’s the other catcher that works his way into every “Baker or Napoli or Iannetta” question.  Pick one then let them be.  Please.  You’re going to leave a scar.

Brandon League – Got the save opp because Downs had worked three straight games and League gave up three runs.  Mad Libs, The Pun Edition: Out of His ________.

Matt LaPorta – HR yesterday.  After the game he said, “I’m this year’s Bruce.  Now… let’s dance!”

Andy LaRoche – Hit his first home run yesterday as he hits .253 on the season.  After the game he said, “Adam went off-book.  We’re a 2nd half family.”

Eric Stults – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  You know who really appreciated this performance?  Peter Bogdanovich.

Javier Vazquez – No one pitches better for five-sixths of a game than Vazquez.

Andrew Bailey – There’s some rumblings up in Bub Rub country that he might be moving in on Ziegler territory.

Nick Markakis – Hit his 4th homer yesterday with 3 RBIs to bring his total to 27 as he bats .370.  I am Sparkakis!

Felix Hernandez – 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 Ks.   Sounds like the line every pitcher should expect coming out of a game with the Rangers.

Fausto Carmona – 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER.   Yeah, I’m glad I dumped this knucklehead.  Good luck to you, Carmona.  Don’t write.

Kyle Lohse – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Hope who ever had him in April heeded my advice to loshe him.

Franklin Gutierrez – 3-for-4 as The Big FraGu goes yard!

Russell Branyan – Hit his 7th homer yesterday.  When I say cheap, you say power… Cheap… Power… Cheap… You got it.

Matt Capps – Came in to save a 4-3 game and left down 7-4 after a sac fly and 3-run gopherball to Rickie Weeks.  So what happened to the Pirates’ Jolly Roger tonight?  Cappsized!  On a less snarky note, that’s three straight outings where he’s given up a run.  And he’s given up 6 runs and 9 hits in his last 2 innings pitched.  Pittsburgh doesn’t have a better option but John Grabow might be worth handcuffing at this point.

Edwin Jackson – 6 IP, 5 ER. Pulled his best Javier Vazquez impersonation as he was great through six innings then was roughed up when he went back for the 7th.

Jon Lester – 7 IP and 10 Ks.  With 33 K and 10 BB, he’s a solid buy low candidate given his 5.00+ ERA.  Just realize he comes with some risk given he threw a zillion pitches last year.

Phil Hughes – Not a great start.  Maybe because it was a chilly, rainy night.  Too early to give up on him.  Sorry, I know everyone’s dying to drop him for Eric Stults now that Juliette Lewis has left him.  (Razzball:  Perez Hilton’s Favorite Fantasy Baseball Site!)

Jose Reyes – Right now, he’s at 10/1/8/.257 with 5 SBs.  That’s looking pretty crappy when Bobby Abreu has 11 SBs and guys are stealing 5 bases in a day.

Rick Ankiel – Tripped and went head first into the outfield fence.  We’re rooting for you buddy. (And, note, we don’t have him on any team.  We’re not THAT callous).

Huston Street – 1-2-3 inning for his 3rd save.  That’s 5 straight outings without a run.  And rumors are circulating that Manny Corpas might get send down.  The Colorado closer situation has been settled once and for all for the next 2 weeks until Street gets hurt.

Zack Greinke – Another shutout.  The trick?  He gets dressed in the Visitors’ locker room.

Francisco Liriano – Won his first game of the year – after losing his first 4 – with 9 Ks in 7 IP against Detroit.  Anyone that bet on him going 0-33 should be feeling mighty stupid.

Dexter Fowler – 0-for-3, 1 caught stealing.  Hey, when does Chris Young pitch again?

Chris Davis/Mark Reynolds – Homers 6 and 7 yesterday, respectively.  We got a hot one, America!

John Maine – Evened up his record to 2-2 after giving up only 3 hits in 6 IP with 7 Ks.  Yeah, that’s the good part.  Did we mention 3 ER and 6 BBs?  We own him, but that doesn’t mean we have to like him.  It could be worse I guess (we’re looking at you, Oliver Perez).

Mark Teixeira – HRs from both sides of the plate.  Let’s check the calendar.  It’s now May.  Yup, makes sense.  Time for Marco Scutaro to suck now.

Ryan Zimmerman – 4-for-4, 22 game hit streak.  First slow-starter Adam LaRoche has a great April with little brother Andy at the other corner.  Now Ryan Zimmerman starts hitting like crazy when Jordan “Two-N” Zimmermann was called up.  So don’t be surprised if the Red Sox sign Russ Ortiz.

Then one day Jed was hopin’ he could start; and Lugo and Scrappy Doo started fallin’ apart.  This is an opening for good ol’ Jed.  The kind to keep those taking late MI fliers fed.  Said Yawkey is the place you ought to be.  So he packed up his Wii to play with Papi.  Ortiz, that is.  Jed Lowrie is in, Julio Lugo is out and Nomar Garciaparra is so five minutes ago.  Yo, whaddup, double play pardner?  Not your knee, I assume.  And the Jed Lowrie fantasy sleeper post is back on like Donkey Kong.  Sure, the Sox are saying Julio Lugo may only be out a month, but he was ‘healthy’ last year and he lost playing time.  Do the math!  Anyway, here’s some more things I saw in spring training that pertains to fantasy baseball:

Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future.  Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday.  During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage.  For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings.  If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs.  Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine?  Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs.  Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be?  You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15?  Who are you, Kelly Johnson?  That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.

Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months.  Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer.  Yes, he looks like a child molester.  It’s just matter of him getting healthy.  He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest.  If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft.  Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him.  No harm, no foul.

Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.

Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring.  He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs.  With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year.  That’s not me jumping ship.  I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.

Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far.  If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.

Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early.  He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers.  Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base.  If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.

Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday.  If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.

Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen.  Stay on fire, Emmanuel.  Papadapolis will save you.