Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, Andy LaRoche made a last ditch effort for some of his parents’ love.  He went 5-for-5, with 2 homers, 4 Runs and 6 RBIs.  He had his best month of the season in September and he’ll still be 26 next year.  I might actually own Pirate players next year.  Weird!  BTW, the Pirates were playing in their final home game of the year in what has been a miserable decade season.  With this last opportunity for the Pirates to give their fans something to cheer about, the 3rd base coach put the brakes on LaRoche as he rounded 2nd heading to third on a long double.  Who cares right?  LaRoche needed a triple for the cycle!  Wait, it gets better.  Zach Duke is cruising for the entire game.  Runs into slight trouble in the 9th inning, but the Pirates have an 11-1 lead.  So what does the manager do with two outs, the never fear-inducing Blake DeWitt at-bat and Duke dealing with a very reasonable 103 pitch count?  He lifts Duke rather than let him get the complete game.  The Pirates deserve contraction.  /rant  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 IP, 10 baserunners, 3 ER and 7 runs total.  As he provided a Ticker Shock.

Garrett Jones – HR and steal yesterday as he went 2-for-5.  On the season, he’s sitting at 21 homers and 10 steals with a .305 average.  That’s in 292 at-bats.  I think Robot Jones might officially be overrated next year, unless everyone thinks he’ll be overrated which could make him underrated or just rated.  Hard to say.  If I had to guess, I think people will assume he’s a fluke and he’ll go later than he should.

Josh Beckett – Scratched from his start vs. the Jays.  I wouldn’t wait around to see if he starts again this season if you need starters.  Chances are the Sawx throw him for only a few innings as a tuneup for the playoffs, if they throw him at all.

Brett Gardner – Gardner, Melky, Hinske, Shelley “I Will High Five You So Hard Your Momma Feels It” Duncan, Miranda-Something-Or-Other, Ramiro Pena and Cervelli.  What is the Yankees lineup a day after clinching?  Yes, that’s right.  We would’ve also accepted, what the Yankees lineup would’ve l0oked like all year if they had the same injuries as the Mets?  For fantasy baseball purposes, this isn’t great that your Yanks are sitting, but I don’t think Girardi is going to want them rusty so the regulars should see at least 4 games this week.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  With only one start left on the year, his ERA is 2.61.  Zoinks!  Of course, I’d love for him to strikeout more guys, but it’s hard to argue with his year.  Of course, he’s no Wandwagon.  But who is?

Anibal Sanchez – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 walks and that’s why I wouldn’t ever start him.

John Danks – 9 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Every time I think I’m done with Danks (last game 6 IP, 7 ER), he pulls me back in with a start like this.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to like him again next year.

Cole Hamels – 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Damn you, Verducci Effect.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-5 as he had his second 4 hit game in three days while batting over .500 in the last week.  At 13 homers, 5 steals and a .313 average, he’s been one of the biggest surprises this year for me.  Since those numbers aren’t that overwhelming, you can imagine how much I expected of him this year.

Gabe Kapler – HR yesterday.  Now that’s how you break a fast.

Grant Balfour – Got the save yesterday because when the bottle stopped spinning it was pointing at him.

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks as the Angels win the West.  Count on most of the Angels lineup sitting or phoning it in tomorrow.  That’s a slight endorsement for the Rangers starter tomorrow, Feldman.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3, 3 Runs and a RBI when he was replaced by Millar.  No word if he left because of a serious injury or just to emphasis how scary it is that I care what happened to him.

Colby Rasmus – This video was shot exactly 500 yards from Colby Rasmus.  If you think that is bad, you should see the one for Chris Davis.  It’s just a guy singing honkytonk at a Dallas bar and striking out with every woman he tries to serenade.

Carlos Zambrano has managed to win 13 or more games for 6 straight years.  It wasn’t easy.  He had to get through a Sweatshop Foreman in Dusty Baker and a pitcher hater in Lou Piniella.  He’s managed 17 HRs in his career and has almost hit his weight (.240).  But, for some reason, he decides to lay down a bunt single and strains his hamstring trying to beat it out.  Somewhere Michael Barrett chuckles.  This sucks if you’re a Zambrano owner but doesn’t do much to change his value.  He’ll miss 3-4 starts and come back to pitch at about 4.00 ERA, solid Ks, and a Win every other start.  That’s assuming, though, he stops trying to emulate Juan Pierre.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 4 IP, 4 ER.  Walked in a run in the 1st.  There’s got to be a direct correlation between pitchers walking in a run and how undesirable they are for fantasy.  Maybe we can get Rudy to draw up a chart.

Alex Rodriguez – Farted yesterday.  Big news!

Alex Gonzalez – Headed to the DL.  Hey, who’s going to hit .220 while he’s out?  Don’t worry, the Red have Paul Janish and Jerry Hairston Jr.

Chris Iannetta – Hit his 5th home run yesterday and collected 4 RBIs to bring his total to 10.  John Baker has 2 home runs and 10 RBIs.  You’d swear all the questions I answer about these two schmohawks that one was remarkably better.   Here’s the deal with punting catcher.  They’re like scabs.  Just leave them alone!  Iannetta will have 17-20 HRs by September.  You don’t have to keep picking at him.

Mike Napoli – 4-for-4 yesterday.  Hey, it’s the other catcher that works his way into every “Baker or Napoli or Iannetta” question.  Pick one then let them be.  Please.  You’re going to leave a scar.

Brandon League – Got the save opp because Downs had worked three straight games and League gave up three runs.  Mad Libs, The Pun Edition: Out of His ________.

Matt LaPorta – HR yesterday.  After the game he said, “I’m this year’s Bruce.  Now… let’s dance!”

Andy LaRoche – Hit his first home run yesterday as he hits .253 on the season.  After the game he said, “Adam went off-book.  We’re a 2nd half family.”

Eric Stults – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  You know who really appreciated this performance?  Peter Bogdanovich.

Javier Vazquez – No one pitches better for five-sixths of a game than Vazquez.

Andrew Bailey – There’s some rumblings up in Bub Rub country that he might be moving in on Ziegler territory.

Nick Markakis – Hit his 4th homer yesterday with 3 RBIs to bring his total to 27 as he bats .370.  I am Sparkakis!

Felix Hernandez – 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 Ks.   Sounds like the line every pitcher should expect coming out of a game with the Rangers.

Fausto Carmona – 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER.   Yeah, I’m glad I dumped this knucklehead.  Good luck to you, Carmona.  Don’t write.

Kyle Lohse – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Hope who ever had him in April heeded my advice to loshe him.

Franklin Gutierrez – 3-for-4 as The Big FraGu goes yard!

Russell Branyan – Hit his 7th homer yesterday.  When I say cheap, you say power… Cheap… Power… Cheap… You got it.

Matt Capps – Came in to save a 4-3 game and left down 7-4 after a sac fly and 3-run gopherball to Rickie Weeks.  So what happened to the Pirates’ Jolly Roger tonight?  Cappsized!  On a less snarky note, that’s three straight outings where he’s given up a run.  And he’s given up 6 runs and 9 hits in his last 2 innings pitched.  Pittsburgh doesn’t have a better option but John Grabow might be worth handcuffing at this point.

Edwin Jackson – 6 IP, 5 ER. Pulled his best Javier Vazquez impersonation as he was great through six innings then was roughed up when he went back for the 7th.

Jon Lester – 7 IP and 10 Ks.  With 33 K and 10 BB, he’s a solid buy low candidate given his 5.00+ ERA.  Just realize he comes with some risk given he threw a zillion pitches last year.

Phil Hughes – Not a great start.  Maybe because it was a chilly, rainy night.  Too early to give up on him.  Sorry, I know everyone’s dying to drop him for Eric Stults now that Juliette Lewis has left him.  (Razzball:  Perez Hilton’s Favorite Fantasy Baseball Site!)

Jose Reyes – Right now, he’s at 10/1/8/.257 with 5 SBs.  That’s looking pretty crappy when Bobby Abreu has 11 SBs and guys are stealing 5 bases in a day.

Rick Ankiel – Tripped and went head first into the outfield fence.  We’re rooting for you buddy. (And, note, we don’t have him on any team.  We’re not THAT callous).

Huston Street – 1-2-3 inning for his 3rd save.  That’s 5 straight outings without a run.  And rumors are circulating that Manny Corpas might get send down.  The Colorado closer situation has been settled once and for all for the next 2 weeks until Street gets hurt.

Zack Greinke – Another shutout.  The trick?  He gets dressed in the Visitors’ locker room.

Francisco Liriano – Won his first game of the year – after losing his first 4 – with 9 Ks in 7 IP against Detroit.  Anyone that bet on him going 0-33 should be feeling mighty stupid.

Dexter Fowler – 0-for-3, 1 caught stealing.  Hey, when does Chris Young pitch again?

Chris Davis/Mark Reynolds – Homers 6 and 7 yesterday, respectively.  We got a hot one, America!

John Maine – Evened up his record to 2-2 after giving up only 3 hits in 6 IP with 7 Ks.  Yeah, that’s the good part.  Did we mention 3 ER and 6 BBs?  We own him, but that doesn’t mean we have to like him.  It could be worse I guess (we’re looking at you, Oliver Perez).

Mark Teixeira – HRs from both sides of the plate.  Let’s check the calendar.  It’s now May.  Yup, makes sense.  Time for Marco Scutaro to suck now.

Ryan Zimmerman – 4-for-4, 22 game hit streak.  First slow-starter Adam LaRoche has a great April with little brother Andy at the other corner.  Now Ryan Zimmerman starts hitting like crazy when Jordan “Two-N” Zimmermann was called up.  So don’t be surprised if the Red Sox sign Russ Ortiz.

Then one day Jed was hopin’ he could start; and Lugo and Scrappy Doo started fallin’ apart.  This is an opening for good ol’ Jed.  The kind to keep those taking late MI fliers fed.  Said Yawkey is the place you ought to be.  So he packed up his Wii to play with Papi.  Ortiz, that is.  Jed Lowrie is in, Julio Lugo is out and Nomar Garciaparra is so five minutes ago.  Yo, whaddup, double play pardner?  Not your knee, I assume.  And the Jed Lowrie fantasy sleeper post is back on like Donkey Kong.  Sure, the Sox are saying Julio Lugo may only be out a month, but he was ‘healthy’ last year and he lost playing time.  Do the math!  Anyway, here’s some more things I saw in spring training that pertains to fantasy baseball:

Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future.  Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday.  During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage.  For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings.  If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs.  Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine?  Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs.  Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be?  You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15?  Who are you, Kelly Johnson?  That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.

Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months.  Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer.  Yes, he looks like a child molester.  It’s just matter of him getting healthy.  He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest.  If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft.  Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him.  No harm, no foul.

Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.

Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring.  He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs.  With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year.  That’s not me jumping ship.  I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.

Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far.  If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.

Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early.  He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers.  Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base.  If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.

Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday.  If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.

Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen.  Stay on fire, Emmanuel.  Papadapolis will save you.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Pirates Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Raise the Jolly Roger.

1) 2008 was a tale of two halves for Freddy Sanchez.  The 1st half was Dirty Sanchez (.226/.251/.304), the 2nd half was Steady Freddy (.346/.378/.483).  Which Freddy Sanchez can we expect for 2009?

Freddy has been a heck of an enigma ever since winning the batting title in 2006. Even then I don’t think he was super-valuable fantasy asset due to a lack of patience and power, but since then it’s been all downhill. The Bucs are expecting Steady Freddy in ‘09 because his shoulder bothered him for a good chunk of last year and it’s all healed up now, but even when he’s hitting, he’s not a great 2B fantasy option.

2) Nate McLouth went from battling for the starting CF position and leadoff spot to being the #3 hitter for much of the 2nd half.  Can McLouth put together another 100/25/100/.270/15 year?

Nate started out on fire last year and dropped off a little bit in the second half, and I think some of that had to do with the losing of Bay and Nady behind him in the lineup. He’s not a #3 hitter (and I think manager John Russell has said he prefers Nate leading off), but it’s absolutely reasonable to think he’ll produce similar numbers this year.

3) What Pittsburgh player puts the irate in Pirate for you?

That would have been an easy one a year ago, but now that Ronny Paulino is gone, I’ll say Ian Snell because he’s “irate” the most often. Basically every time Snell loses a game or the Pirates go on a losing streak (often) you can bank on him having some quote in the paper the next day along the lines of “losing sucks, I hate it.” I’d be upset too if I burned a finger on my pitching hand while cooking chicken.

4) Pittsburgh had a few pleasant surprises for fantasy baseballers in 2008 in Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm.  Who do you think are the best fantasy breakout candidates of 2009?

On the offense I (along with many people around/within the team) would say OF Brandon Moss and 3B Andy LaRoche, two guys who have great records as prospects but struggled with the Pirates after coming in the Bay trade last year. As for the pitchers, we don’t even know who’s going to be in the starting rotation (besides Paul Maholm, of course).

5) The theme song of the 1979 Pirates was ‘We Are Family’.  What would be the best theme song for the post-Bondsian Pirates?  A) “Hard Knock Life” by Jay-Z  B) “So Far Away” by Dire Straits C) “Loser” by Beck D) “Saved The Best For Last” by Vanessa Williams

E) All of the above

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.