Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Giants report John Bowker will steal time away Randy Winn. Might take a bulk of the at-bats at first away from Aurilla. This is terrific news for Bowker and the Giants. But for you the fantasy baseball player, I say, “Eh.” Bowker’s minor league stats show a guy who struck out a lot, didn’t walk too much and is being slightly rushed. Could he be a surprise feel-good story for the Giants and fantasy owners? Maybe, but very doubtful. In his last full season of minor league ball (at AA), he went 79/.307/22/90 with 103 strikeouts and 44 walks in 522 at-bats. Decent enough numbers, but this season he should be in Triple A showing that his Double A numbers aren’t a fluke. If I have an empty bench slot, I’d grab a middle reliever before I went anywhere near John Bowker. If you’re in dire need of an outfielder, go Bowkers! But Bowker might be back in the minors in a month.

Andruw Jones - He was batting eighth. If you have him, unfurl your contingency plans — stat.

Corey Patterson - He went into a slide, now he’s not even playing against righties. Not good, friend. Not good at all.

Xavier Nady - Now batting .347 with 17 RBIs. I told you three weeks ago, you never know where hot streaks are going to come from or for how long they’re going to last. Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton - He was called up and benched. Hope he enjoyed sex with Piniella’s wife or whatever it was that put him in the perennial doghouse.

Matt Diaz - He’s sitting against righties again. This could continue indefinitely. It’s much worse than Kelly Johnson sitting against lefties because of the sheer number of righty pitchers.

John Maine - Looked good. Think he can get much better.

Tim Hudson - Don’t take this wrong way, I like him, but he didn’t look that good yesterday. Lots of balls hit hard.

Calos Villanueva - Other than some early inning wildness, he looked decent. Would’ve liked to have seen more Ks, but still a good start.

Mark Reynolds - Why anyone is throwing him fastballs is behind me, but he went deep again. Fingercuffing sucks.

Armando Galarraga - All he does is win! I wouldn’t pick him up. If you can not look good pitching 5 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, he did it.

Eugenio Velez - On every other team, he’d be in the minors or a pinch runner.

Joba Chamberlain - Hank Steinbrenner said only “an idiot” would keep Joba as a setup man. Cashman and Girardi said they’re idiots then. Good to see no matter what Stein is behind the wheel, same nonsense.

Adam Wainwright - If I were the type to boost my preseason predictions after three weeks, I would boost his.

Michael Bourn - He already has 13 steals. Could he get 70 steals? Yup. In December of ‘07, I said to draft Bourn not only because of the steals, but “…Baseball America pointed out (Bourn) as having the “Best Strike Zone Discipline.” Okay, not exactly Best Newcomer at the AVN Awards, but strike zone discipline is not a bad thing to have for a leadoff man. I’m talking to you, Granderson.” And that’s me quoting me.

Guess what, ya’ll?! New closer in Atlanta. That’s right the Braves lost Peter Moylan to an injury so Manny Acosta takes over until Soriano returns. Soriano is due back soon, but he’s injury-prone so this may seem flippant, but Accardo came out of nowhere to save a lot of games last year. You never know where saves are going to come from, but we know they will be coming from the new (fill-in) Atlanta Braves closer, Manny Acosta. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Alfonso Soriano - Was hurt catching the ball. He didn’t look good at all being helped off the field. Maybe Murton time? I picked up Murton in one NL-Only league, just in case.

Michael Bourn - All he does is steal bases. No, seriously, that’s all he does. Is it me or are there more all-speed, nothing else guys now than ever? Bourn, Gomez, Gathright, Taveras, Pierre, a third of the Giants lineup, etc. It’s a renaissance for speed guys. It’s like someone cracked down on power-enhancing drugs or something. Weird!

Andruw Jones - I said this about three months ago, but he seriously may be retired within three years. He’s lazy, ya’ll.

Erik Bedard - Hits the DL. Yeah, and doodie smells.

Jose Valverde - He was not a reliable closer before last year. Don’t forget about Brocail.

Jair Jurrgens - He walked Willingham on a questionable pitch (who stole his second base of the day!) then Jacobs got a clean double to score one run. Then Willingham inexplicably hit a triple later in the game. Jurrgens looks great so far. I hope people are paying attention. BTW, April 17th is Benihana Thursdays in Marlins Stadium! (I can’t even imagine what this is, but it sounds wonderful. Maybe Alfredo Amezaga flips shrimp tails into his shirt pocket?)

Shawn Chacon - I’m sure glad I have him on my Razzball team. Ugh. Maybe Pineiro can throw a shutout later in the week.

Mark Teixeira - He’s starting slow. Yeah, and doodie still smells.

Derrek Lee - He’s headed for a big year.

Chad Qualls - Might be slowly working his way into the closer role.

Aaron Hill - Could be very valuable to balance out your fifth outfielder who only steals.

Aaron Harang - I know it’s a little consolation because I have him on a few teams too, but the wind was blowing out big time in Wrigley.

Joey Votto - I’m getting the sneaky suspicion that Dusty might actually play him regularly.

Krispie Young - 13 hits, five of which are home runs, with 18 strikeouts for a .228 average. Cust kayin’.

Let’s pretend Francisco Liriano is that girl you hooked up with at the bar. You think she’s hot, but, honestly, you can’t really remember the color of her hair, let alone her carpet. Though you do remember the sex being good. Now she calls to tell you she’s available Sunday night and your friend, Kevin Slowey, just cancelled on you. Oh, and there’s one condition, since the last time you saw her, she had reconstructive surgery. She swears she’ll be back in form by Sunday. You agree to meet her and begin to talk about that night you met. She confides that she has no idea what you look like either. Now you can meet her because the sex was good one random night before her reconstructive surgery or, because she has no idea what you look like either, you can call your friend and trade him this girl for John Maine. I trade Liriano for John Maine before Sunday night. You’re in a one year league and you’re playing for the here and now. You don’t have time for Liriano to ‘get back to form.’ Sell high and trade Liriano. With that said, here’s some other players you should buy or sell.

SELL

Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp - If you can trade any of these guys, I think you’ll be a happier person. The Pierre Situation™ has screwed up everything. Maybe Pierre gets traded, but at this point you’re not in a good position to succeed with any of these guys.

Felix Pie - Reed Johnson has sliced into the playing time of Pie. Oofa! Grab a spot on the bench next to Matt Murton, Felix. Trade Pie to someone who thinks Pie will definitely win the position and succeed.

Luke Scott - He’s batting near .500. If anyone believes it, I’d trade him. Otherwise, hold onto him for the time being.

Blake DeWitt - If you don’t think Torre’s going to play Nomar, take one look at The Pierre Situation™.

Mark Reynolds - He’s not awful, but he’s not going to be as good as he has been for the last week. Not to mention, he will strikeout 200 times this year.

BUY

Brett Myers - In two starts, he’s been battered like he likes to do to his wife. He’ll be better.

Micah Owings - Almost 9 K/9. Under 3 BB/9.

Edwin Jackson - He got a Murtonesque mishandling by the Dodgers. Underutilized or not utilized at all. Back in the day, he was a great prospect for the Dodgers.  He’s still only 24, but he is on the Rays.

Justin Upton - I don’t think you can get him from anyone in an NL-only league or a keeper, but one year league owners may not be sold. He’s a talent.

Chad Billingsley - Velocity’s down but he was pitched out of the bullpen then made to start. I think it’s just a rough beginning.

Mike Napoli - His average is going to be in the dumpster, but he’s showing power.

Jeff Suppan - Not masterful, but he can help out with wins and innings.

Shawn Hill - In 97 innings last year, he had 65 Ks and a 3.42/1.14. If he’s on waivers, grab him. He’s about to come back from his injury.

Scott Hairston - He got a Murtonesque mishandling in Arizona. He now has his chance to play.

Miguel Cabrera - None of his owners are actually worried about him, are they?

In today’s daily notes, I’ll look at how badly Pedro Martinez’s struggles were against the Marlins up until the injury and everything else I saw in today’s major league games:

Dan Uggla, Luis Gonzalez took Pedro Martinez deep. Beltran took an awful route to a ball for a Hanley triple to score an AA chip. In another at-bat, he made Uggla seem discriminating. Gary Cohen put it best, “Best thing Pedro did tonight was his at-bat.” But against VandenHurk, it’s a very small consolation. I’m not pleased. He should’ve dominated this team. There were lots of meatballs thrown by Pedro. He didn’t look in command of anything. He can no longer overpower people and… He left with an injury. Looked like a hamstring or a groin tweak. Didn’t look serious, but at his age, it could be. Word from Pedro, he heard a pop. That’s never a good thing. Or as Willie said, ” That’s not always good, but we’ll let it calm down and get an MRI.” Is there a time it is good? Jorge Sosa gets his next start for NL-only leagues, everyone else needs to wait and see. To be continued.

Must look at Angel Pagan in NL-only leagues. He’s no more than a reserve at this point. He’s got good speed, but nothing more than a fill-in for the Mets and probably shouldn’t be much more for you.

Posada hit into a double play to the right side of the infield. This will be a recurring theme.

Melky could put 5/5 numbers and his defense will keep him in the lineup. Fortunately, he will not put up those numbers. He will be a lot better. There was some comment chatter on this post about who will be better between Butler, McLouth, Ethier, Milledge and Gutierrez. Rudy added Melky into that group. Makes sense. I like them Butler, Gutierrez, Melky, Milledge, McLouth then Ethier. But Ethier placing last is a testament to the other guys and not that huge of a knock on Ethier. This group will be watched all year.

Both Halladay and Wang looked good, except no Ks. Probably the most boringest matchup that could take place. Was like watching paint dry. Paint that doesn’t strike anyone out. Really farkin’ boring paint. Oh, wait, there was something more boring-er.

The Cardinals hitting. Skip Schumaker? Cesar Izturis? Kyle Lohse batting 8th? Larussa has outdone himself this year.

I hate Kip Wells. How could he pitch so well and not so… er, Wells? Did he really strikeout Pujols?

Joba v. Rios — Rios BB. Joba’s the most exciting reliever since steroid-ed Gagne. Rios would’ve been a consensus 2nd round pick, if he played for the Yanks or Mets and not just on my list. People need to see him play.

Matt Kemp was out of the lineup in favor of Juan Pierre. The Pierre Situation is quickly becoming a nightmare that could ripple into the entire outfield, not just Andre Ethier. I’d much rather see Kemp than Ethier out there. Frankly, I’d prefer to see Andruw Jones sit.

If you’re looking to handcuff Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail has been declared the primary setup man, not Oscar Villarreal.

As much as Rich Aurilla should retire, the Giants should not be playing him.

Scott Hairston went deep and Bourn stole another base (but it was against Bard and Young, so dur, of course). Hairston’s someone who never got a fair shot in Arizona, but he’s got a good eye, posting over a .400 OBP in the minors.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.