Fantasy Baseball Advice

My dinner with Andre is over as Andre Ethier has called it kaput on his season.  It wasn’t from a lack of trying, I’ll tell ya that.  “Hey, I just want to say how much it means to me to try to help this team win even though I shouldn’t be playing.  This is my job, and I take my job very seriously, even if means I may never walk again because I’m playing when I shouldn’t be.  I will not sit, no matter what!  Unless someone asks me to sit because they realize I shouldn’t be playing.”  Andre encapsulates today’s athlete perfectly.  Team first, as long the player is okay putting team first.  For whatever reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ethier overdrafted again next year.  People just can’t get enough of his 20 homer, no steal fantasy value.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – 4-for-5 with his 17th steal.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Seems like a no-brainer, which is my specialty.

Juan Rivera – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs.  He now has 32 RBIs in 45 games with the Dodgers.  Note to self:  Use Juan Rivera at a later date to show how arbitrary RBIs are.

Chad Billingsley – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  If he was a dangling Chad on your team, punch him out.

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-5 with his 12th homer.  After the game, he had vodka with coffee liqueur while arguing with Mark Reynolds about who was the best cosmonaut.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4.  This comes after an 0-for-10 stretch with 7 Ks.  He reminds me a bit of me at this bar the other night.  There was a point when I actually said the line, “What’s your man got to do with me?”  They don’t call me the Fantasy Master Lothario — or FML — for nothing.

Eric Chavez – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs.  When Chavez goes up to bat, the song that plays is “I Suck, Sucker,” which I wrote and sang for him.

Craig Schwinden – 5 IP, 5 ER.  In the first row at Metco was Kim Basinger, she’s a total Babraham Lincoln… Schwinden!

Jason Bay – 2-for-4 with a grand slam in the first game of the doubleheader; 1-for-2 with a steal in the 2nd.  He now has three homers in the last week.  This will help the Mets, who are preparing a video of his week’s exploits with Joe Esposito’s You’re the Best playing in the background, which they will ship around to perspective trade partners in the offseason.

Mike Minor – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks and the conshellation prize.  Damn, really could used a 6 IP, 0 ER start from him, and, as always, this is all about me.

Julio Teheran – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s gonna be good, but this was no indication of that.  The Mets and Braves both looked like they just got done playing a previous game, which they did.

Brent Morel – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  You fancy mushroom!

Brent Lillibridge – Sticking with the Brent theme, Lillibridge was hit by a pitch that broke his hand.  He should’ve aqueduct’d.

Ian Kennedy – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, improving his record to 19-4.  Joe Kennedy would’ve been proud, then bought him an election.

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer.  He’s still struggling to maintain a decent average with all the Ks, but he has two homers in the last week.

Rickie Weeks – The Brewers activated Weeks from the 15-day DL that he was on for over a month.  15-day DL, “You exploit my generosity!”

Andrew Miller – 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I wonder who’s gonna be bumped from the Sawx rotation for the playoffs.  I mean, I have an idea.  Be weird if it’s Miller after Francona earlier in the year said, “Obviously, [Miller] is a huge part of our organization, and it’s going to stay that way.  He’s not going anywhere.”  Maybe he’ll say he was putting air quotes around his statement.

Colby Rasmus – Took live batting practice and should be good to go by early next week.  I’ve marked my I Couldn’t Care Less calendar.  We now wait.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4 with a homer.  I got a letter recently from one of our incarcerated readers, it went like this, “I don’t think you’ve given enough attention to Encarnacion.  He’s hitting the cover off the ball just as well as anyone else in the major leagues or the penal circuit.  By the way, you puta?  Yours, Boo-Boo.”

J.P. Arencibia – Hit his 22nd homer yesterday.  A catcher with power and a low average?  Oh, he’s definitely gonna be on multiple teams of mine next year.  That’s right, I’m thinking about my 2012 draft already.  Sleep on me, that pillow is where your head’ll lie.  Permanently, snitch, it’s beddy-bye, Eminem.

Ricky Romero – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Could I make R.R. Cool Jay (see resemblance to the rapper (actor?)) a starter on some of my mixed teams in 2012?  I’m contemplating it.  AL East be damned!

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was good in this game, until he wasn’t.  Snap in the inverted W formation!

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Season ERA is 2.60 and WHIP is 0.95.  Phillies are gonna be tough to beat in the playoffs.  Cust kayin’.

Chase Utley – Will sit out this weekend with what is being deemed a mild concussion.  I got one thing to relay about mild concussions… Justin Morneau called and said, “How come I’m wearing my mittens on my feet?”

The week before the MLB trade deadline is upon us. This is why we keep a few extra FAAB bucks available. Wish they were good for a happy meal, because those toys always come in handy. With about 6 weeks to the fake playoffs, there is still time to make that last move to steal a few points in categories that your team may be lacking. So stocking up on some starts if you’re behind in innings isn’t always a bad idea.  Enjoy the week to come and good luck. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:
7/27
Cory Luebke vs. Ari – Kennedy
Bruce Chen @ Bos – Lackey
Ervin Santana @ Cle – Carrasco

7/28
Chris Capuano @ Cin – Bailey
John Lannan vs. Fla – Volstad
Kevin Correia @ Atl – Lowe

7/29
Josh Collmenter @ LAD – Lilly
Gillon Gee @ Was – Gorzellany
Tim Stauffer vs. Col – Hammel

Freddy Garcia (Sea vs. Vargas, Bal vs. TBD) What year is it? 2001? I don’t get it, no one predicted it. This is why overpaying for pitchers is what drives us all crazy. Yankee lineup makes him sexier.

Brandon McCarthy (TB vs. Price, Min vs. Pavano) Still building innings since return. Home ERA is tiny — 2.33. Good buy low guy, as he was prolly forgotten about for awhile.

Chris Narveson (CHC vs. Dempster, Hou vs. Myers) A Smokey fave, guess all my trashing is starting to get to him. 5-2 with a 3.80 ERA at home this year. Second half stunner last year, maybe it’s the start of something magical. Yeah, I said magical.

Rubby de la Rosa (Col vs. Nicasio, Ari vs. Saunders) K’s are nice, but anyone actually seen the Dodgers offense lately. Yeah, they score as much as the US women’s soccer team do on penalty kicks. What, too soon?

Andrew Miller (KC vs. Duffy, @Chw vs. Humber) Match-up with Duffy, first one to 6 BBs wins. Still like the chances of that lineup thwarting anything, peripherals be damned. We want wins. WINS, I say.

Dustin Moseley (Ari vs. Saunders, Col vs. Nicasio) Insert random Padre home start colloquialism. Still gets garbage run support. May not have a bullpen by Sunday to back him up.

Nick Blackburn (@Tex vs. Holland, @Oak vs. Moscoso) Lack of K’s makes him very unattractive. Only allowed one ER in last 2 starts. Name still sounds like a rash you contract on spring break.

R.A. Dickey (@Cin vs. Leake, @Was vs. Marquis) I thought first name initialed guys only wrote books. Only 1 win in last 8 starts, with a 3.38 ERA. Better pitcher on the road by a whole run.

Joe Saunders (@SD vs. Moseley, @LAD vs. De La Rosa) If effectively mediocre was a tier for starting pitchers, he would be the Sy Sperling of it. Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in last 7 starts. ERA just a tick above 3 on the road.

Mike Leake (NYM vs. Dickey, SF vs. Bumgarner) The much anticipated Leake-Dickey matchup. Who will win? Depends.

It’s a confusing week for me to grasp. Some formats are a short week, others role on until literally the middle (or end) of next week. So first things first, I will tackle the short 4 game week and give you some unbridled gems of the streaming variety. Stay tuned on Saturday for the following week’s two start thinga-ma-bobbers.  If this is a short week for you, it’s prolly best to grab as many of these guys as possible, longer week not so much as you may want to call Laurel and tell him to take a breather. So enjoy the short week or long and I will give you an update later this week for week 15 ½ or 16. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

7/14
Bruce Chen @ Min (Liriano) – 2.50 ERA since DL stint return. Is the definition of a streaky low end good/bad pitcher.

Jason Vargas vs. Tex (Holland) – Basically needs to go the distance to have a chance at a win. 1.70 ERA in last 4 starts.

Aaron Harang vs. SF (Bumgarner) – The primate in the zoo, Hodgepadre indeed.

7/15
Andrew Miller @ TB (Price) – 4 starts, 3 wins plays for the best lineup in baseball. That is all.

Doug Fister vs. Tex (Lewis) – Gets zero run support. I really feel bad for him because if you haven’t seen him pitch, he is very unheralded and unrewarded.

Jeff Karstens @ Hou (Myers) – Is he awesome, no. Effective lately yes. Regression will ensue.

Josh Tomlin @ Bal (Arrieta) – Sneaky 10 win pitcher, other numbers say he is pitching exactly the way he should be.

Vance Worley @ NYM (Dickey) – Awesome since mid-June. If he isn’t owned, your league is dull.

7/16
Paul Maholm @ Hou (Norris) – 4-2 with a 1.75 ERA in last 7 starts. For the soon to be first place Pirates.

Barry Zito @ SD (Luebke) – 3 wins, tiny ERA since DL return.

Edwin Jackson @ Det (Scherzer) – Huh, yeah I wanted to highlight that this will be his last start in Chi-town. That’s me predicting me!

Carlos Zambrano vs. Fla (Vazquez) – Fresh from the DL, seems like a trend for this post. Pitches just effectively enough to be added/dropped about 10 times a year. Ah, but look closer, he has RP elig, sneaky play for a Saturday.

7/17
Chris Volstad @CHC (Wells) – Stop trying to strike everyone out, you’re a groundball pitcher.

Matt Harrison @ Sea (Beavan) – Seattle O is good twice a week.  Coincidentally, that’s how much my garbage is picked up.

Brian Duensing vs. KC (Paulino) – Sneaky good lately, here for the added eligibility.

Kevin Correia @ Hou (Rodriquez) – Is money on the road.

Zack Cozart is a pickup in all leagues where you need a middle infidel.  Go, I’ll wait here.  *scratches chin, yawns, covers mustache with two fingers to see what I look like without it, shakes head*  Welcome back!  Cozart hit 17 homers and stole 30 bases last year.  You know who that reminds me of?  No, not you in high school.  Let it go, man.  It reminds me of Danny Espinosa.  Danny has a bit more power and a bit less speed, but tomato-tomato with a different emphasis.  Cozart also comes with the same potential to be an average drain.  Also, Espinosa and Cozart sounds like a promising TNT drama starring Freddy Prinze Jr. and Stifler.  In real baseball (which is played with more crotch scratching, but less crotch grabbing), Cozart’s just okay.  A potential 15/20 guy (over the course of a whole season) at shortstop in fantasy baseball is a yes, please and thank you.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Optioned to Triple-A in hopes that Edinson can rediscover his electric stuff.  I have an idea for his rehab:  don’t let him pitch the first inning.

Dontrelle Willis – Will take Edinson’s spot on Sunday.  For those thinking about picking him up, I have a question for you — What’chu talkin’ about… Willis?!

Jason Heyward – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and a long overdue slam & legs.  As I was doing my top 100 for the 2nd half that will be posted next Tuesday, I was contemplating where to put Heyward because I thought he might still be injured.  This game was either a nice sign or Heyward messing with me.  Probably the former, if former means the first one.

Kyle Seager – The guy who sounds like an 80′s sitcom character is going to play the majority of 3rd base for the Mariners.  In related news, Chone Figgins will be out of baseball in less than two years.  Anyone want any action?  So Seager is a high average, just meh power and speed guy.  Kinda like a poor man’s Prado, or I guess that’s a Prado knockoff.  I’m not a huge fan of Prado so you can imagine how I feel about Seager.  It’s just a’ight in AL-Only leagues.

Jason Kendall – It looks like shoulder surgery will force him into retirement.  Much like Pudge, Kendall has moved long ago from an elite fantasy catcher.  But here are some crazy stats for you courtesy of Rudy:  Kendall is 3rd all-time amongst Catchers (80+% of games at catcher) in Hits and Times On Base (behind Pudge and Fisk).  That’s ahead of Berra, Bench, Piazza, Dickey, and Carter.  And his .366 OBP beats all the aforementioned catchers except Piazza.  He’s also 5th all time amongst all hitters in HBP.  But his lack of power puts his Wins Above Replacement lower than those catchers and a few other non-HOF catchers like Munson, Freehan, and Darrell “Big Frames” Porter.  Whew, because a Jason Kendall for HOF advocacy would be as joyless as owning him the past 7 years.  (Note from Grey:  One last time:  Much like a Ken doll, Kendall has no bat.)

Charlie Blackmon – Could miss the rest of the season with a fractured bone in his foot.  What?  This is baseball!  Not football!  (Though if you’re into fantasy football, Chet’s holding a contest where he’s giving away $300.  I’m guessing you’ll get it in unmarked pennies.  Now go check it out.)

Juan Nicasio – 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Mr. Obvious, “Nicasio can’t be relied on in any leagues right now.”

Wade Davis – To the 15-day DL with a forearm strain.  Maybe it was trying to be a fivearm.  Hamilton-Burrishly, Alex Cobb and Sonnanstine will now duel over Davis’s open rotation spot.

Lonnie Chisenhall – Was plunked in the face.  Eric Plunk, “You owe me a nickel for using that verb.”  Um, okay.  So this sounds like terrible news.  I’m beginning to think every hitter should wear Great Gazoo helmets.  As soon as I hear more news on Lonnie, I’ll repurpose the information with a bit of humor and let you know.

Josh Reddick – Hit his 2nd homer yesterday.  I’d say he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but he’s not.  He’s here now, you need this shizz spoon-fed to you?

Andrew Miller – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 0 Ks.  He got lucky.  Now if you press your luck and start him again, you may get a whammy.

Mike Stanton – Now back-to-back games with a homer as he screamed in the baseball’s face a’la CT, “I will smoke you!”

Brad Hand – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  This comes after two starts where he didn’t get out of the fifth inning.  I’m not calling this start a liar, but I believe the last two starts more.  Also, Clay Hensley could take Hand’s spot in the rotation soon after the All-Star break.

Ben Zobrist – 8 for his last 12 with a home run yesterday.  BenZo looks to be rolling once again.

B.J. Upton – 2-for-4 with his 14th homer — not in this game, that would’ve been a record prior to the steroid era.  He also has 20 steals.  If he could just get his average up to .280, he’d be such a force.  I think I’m going all in on him next year when he’s 27.  Poppycock, you say. Okay, but what the eff is poppycock and why are you saying it?

Rich Harden – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Usually if he stays healthy, he’s dominant but this start was bleh.  Harden, “I can too stay healthy!  Ow!  I juth bit my lip when I said ‘eathy!”

Philip Humber – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Mmm-hmm.

Max Scherzer – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 Ks.  Sonavabench!  Hey, I know that impersonation — it’s Liriano, and I don’t like it.

Matt Garza – 2 IP, 6 ER as the Nats had an extravaGarza.  Watch your toes, everyone.  Garza continues to take steps backwards.  Garza’s xFIP was under 3.00 before this game.  Too bad I don’t freakin’ play in a league with xFIP.  I wish he’d just have an aggressive burp, throw out his back and go to the DL.

Frank Francisco – Recorded no outs and gave up 3 earned runs.  Looks like I don’t have to be embarrassed that I tattooed Rauch’s name on my fantasy baseball team’s neck.

Carlos Villanueva – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After the break, the Blue Kays get the Yankees, Mariners, Rangers and Orioles respectively.  If Chuck Newtown gets the M’s and O’s, then nom nom.  If he gets the Yanks and Texas, then indigestion.

Cory Luebke - 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I’m flummoxed why I have to beg people to pick up certain pitchers.  BTW, you can’t spell flummoxed without the lox, which Eli Whiteside provides.

Jered Weaver – 9 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks.  ERA is now at 1.86, WHIP is 0.91.  What a dream, Weaver.  The highest compliment I can give a player is, “Hey, really nice mustache.”  But my 2nd highest compliment is I wish I owned them on every team.

Jose Reyes – To the DL with his bad hamstring.  Get Michael Jackson’s old hyperbaric chamber for Jose Reyes’s hamstring!  He’s supposed to be out for three weeks now.  I hate the Mets.  Why can’t they just say when a player is going to be out for an extended period of time?  Who’s their doctor?  Dr. Rosenrosen?  Mr. Met probably has gigantism and they’re pretending he’s a cute, baseball-headed mascot.

Roger Clemens – I hope I don’t have to put an asterisk on my 1997 fantasy baseball championship.

So I got bored this week and decided to look at some deep rooted stats. I was looking for fantasy pitchers who don’t K a lot but are still very useful for fantasy purposes, and wouldn’t you know it, it relates well to a lot of options this week. These guys get overlooked by everyone. I’m here to learn you something. Not all pitchers who have over a 7 K/9 are candidates for rosterability. There are other factors that lead these low K/9 pitchers to greater success, they have peripherals that are better than the guys we roster. It seems that there is an affection toward pitchers who will get you more K’s but hurt your ERA and WHIP as opposed to getting a starter that has a low K-rate and helps with ERA and WHIP. All the starters I list every week are based off the roster status on multiple fantasy services and I usually use less than 50% ownership (with some variances here and there). So with that, I am telling you not to forget about the guys who get it done but go unnoticed because they aren’t Brandon Morrow. They still help just as much as the “productive” players or guys we think are more productive than they actually are. I ask you this:  Would you rather have an ERA of 2.50 with 6 K’s in two starts or an ERA of 4.50 and 12 K’s in two starts?  I understand that guys contribute to both exist, but are already owned and usually the top 30-40 pitchers overall. I’m merely talking about cusp of the roster guys. Enjoy the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/28
Clayton Richard vs. KC – Paulino

6/29
Carlos Carrasco @ Bal – Arrieta
Paul Maholm @ Tor – Morrow
Tim Stauffer vs. KC – Chen

6/30
Jeff Karstens @ Tor- Villanueva
Mike Pelfrey @ Det – Verlander

7/1
Juan Nicasio vs. KC – Davies
Tim Wakefield @ HOU – Norris
Bronson Arroyo vs. Cle – Masterson

Kevin Correia (@Tor vs. Reyes, @Was vs. Marquis) Should be a line painter he is so good on the road. Home/away splits are hard to ignore. Go look. See told ya. Lack of K’s make him kind of boring. I have to go dust off my Omar Moreno jersey as I told myself I would never wear it until they reach .500 in July.

John Lannan (@Ana vs. Santana, Pit vs. McDonald) ERA at 1.15 over the last 6 starts. Jump on board and ride the hot hand. Low K guys are the Monty Capuletti of fantasy. The Nats are on a pretty decent roll right now.

R.A. Dickey (@Det vs. Porcello, NYY vs. Garcia) Deserves better. Only one win to show for his 2.35 ERA over the last month. Odd stat o’ the day, Metco is a pitchers haven but his ERA is lower on the road by a run.

Jason Hammel (CHW vs. Floyd, KC vs. Francis) Pitching in Colorado stinks. It’s pretty cut and dry, ERA’s get bloated, WHIP’s get taken to the shed. Pitches just bad enough that his offense can’t help him. Last resort for deep leagues this week.

Jason Marquis (@Ana vs. Pineiro, Pit vs. Correia) Has pitched surprisingly awesome and fits the bill for the above mentioned low K guys. Gets hit around a little but pitches to contact so what do you expect? Home ERA in the mid 2’s.

Jordan Lyles (Tex vs. Wilson, Bos vs. Miller) Two tough matchups, both lineups can hit. Pitched okay last week against the Rangers. The Astros pitchers are horrible to chase wins with. K/BB rate of 4/1. Lefties only hitting .208 against.

Nick Blackburn (LAD vs. Billingsley, Mil vs. Greinke) Yet another low K guy, I can’t make this stuff up. June ERA is 2.04.  Wait, it gets better for the unappreciated, home ERA for the year is 2.40. Matchup names are scary, but anyone seen Minnesota play lately. No, go ask Buster Poindexter then.

Ryan Vogelsong (@CHC vs. Davis, @Det vs. Scherzer) You see that thing in the horizon, yeah that’s the ship that sailed. I pimped and pimped for as long as I could but he finally graduated to usefulness. Who is the next american pitcher to come back from Japan? I did the research for ya, it’s Bryan Bullington.

Andrew Miller (@Phi vs. Lee, @Hou vs. Lyles) Watched his first start, he pitched okay, and it was against the Friars. K potential is nice, being a tether ball isn’t. I asked Jerry Remy after the game what he thought, his quote “Not now, kid.” Dynamite stuff, Remdog.

Brandon Beachy (@Sea vs. Bedard, Bal vs. Britton) Prolly the most added guy in any league or format for the next week. The 11 K outing makes everyone think “I want some of that goodness.” Only bad thing I can see is he may give up some taters… Mmmm taters.