Fantasy Baseball Advice

If I were the type to gloat, I’d say I told you to not draft David Wright.  I’m not that type of fantasy baseball ‘pert though.  Nah, I simply get satisfaction from not owning him anywhere and watching as teams that do own him scramble looking for replacements.   ….Okay, it’s similar to gloating, but it’s not the same thing.  With his sudden proneness for injuries, Mets fans may reflexively be chanting ‘Larry’ when he comes to bat now, which may not be for a while since he has a fractured pinkie.  He’ll need to wear a splint and the Mets are saying he’s out indefinitely, but we’ll know more later today.  In the meantime, the Mets pitching coach will be teaching Wright how to throw a splint finger.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mike Morse – Shutdown after having renewed pain in his lat.  There’s no timetable for his return.  Real World Situation Alert:  Your boss at Shakey’s says he appreciates the way you put the “Happy Birthday” messages on the giant billboard out front, but there’s no timetable for a promotion.  How does that make you feel?  Okay, now how do you feel about Morse?

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I miss owning him.  That is all.

Andre Ethier – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  I’m not saying he’s not bouncing back and I’m not yelling fire in the theater of Razzball, but he did hit .385 last April.  Things that make you go hmm…

Austin Jackson – 1-for-2 with a homer, now batting .563 with a downright weird BABIP over .750, which has Jackson’s owners saying keep Austin weird.

Neftali Feliz – 7 shutout innings (6 baserunners, 4 Ks) in his first start (albeit against the Mariners).  The Rangers convert relievers better than missionaries convert natives.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3 with the home run and 2 steals, which I guess is a slam and legses.  Legii?

Kyle Drabek – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  With starts like this he should stay in the Blue Jays rotation, but remember he’s got potentially-yet-to-be-unrealized-potential-that-might-not-be-potential-anymore potential.  The potential is there, though.

Matt Moore – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners (5 walks), 4 Ks. You have a team that has a leadoff hitter hitting over .500, Miggy and Fielder hitting over .400 and you give 5 walks… Yeah, I’d be happy with only two earned runs too.

Dustin Moseley – His MRI revealed that his shoulder has extensive damage.  And that’s how one goes from a Hodgepadre to an “Oh Fudge” Padre.

Carlos Beltran – Hit his 3rd HR of the year.  Must be the combination of knowing he’s not a Met and won’t have to face Wainwright’s curve ball.

David Freese – 3 HRs and 10 RBIs now in 6 games.  He’s going to be pissed with that hypnotist when there’s no champagne in the clubhouse after their next win.

Lance Berkman – Says he has a tender calf.  Aw, ain’t that sweet?  He should sing it lullabies.  He also said he should be ready to go by Friday.

Sergio Santos – Cordero will get saves until Saturday because Santos has been excused to attend the birth of his first child.  I hope his wife’s not counting on him to save any mementos from the hospital.

Daniel Bard – 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Just when Sale and Feliz get you excited about converted relievers… On the plus side, he only walked one and struck out 6.  If he keeps his walks down like that, he might actually pitch some quality starts.  Of course, he won’t get any wins because the bullpen will blow them.

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Member what I said last week about him being a solid pitcher in April and May?  Yup.

Jayson Werth – 4 for 5 against the Mets.  3 singles, 1 double.  Must’ve been his brother Laynce in the stands that inspired him to such heights.

Ross Detwiler – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was recommended in our two start pitcher post on Saturday.  The blurb about Detwiler made me laugh, too.  My loud high-pitched annoying laugh that you’ll be hearing more of later today with our newest podcast.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4 with a homer.  His owners probably can’t wait until he cools off so they can drop him.

Chipper Jones – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and a homer in his first game back.  Otherwise known as the game before he’s injured again.

Tyler Pastornicky – 1-for-3 with his first home run.  Aren’t you glad you punted shortstop and grabbed Pastronicky or Cozart late?  Yeah, I know.  Thank me later.

Lorenzo Cain – Left yesterday’s game with a groin strain.  Usually when one of my guy’s gets injured I get sullen — despondent even! — but, uh, guess who gets more at-bats if Cain is injured?  The ultimate in SAGNOF — Bourgeois!

Blake Beavan – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  That’s nice; I wouldn’t go near him.

Jordan Schafer – 3-for-5, 2 runs and 3 SBs in 5 innings against Hanson-McCann.  The last time someone stole that much from a Hanson was this chick who stole the Hanson drummer’s virginity during the MMMBop tour.

Chris Narveson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Chris Narveson isn’t just The Noid’s Christian name, he’s also a pitcher who I like for certain matchups.  Should be good for a 7+ K-rate and a just-under 4 ERA.

Edinson Volquez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I wouldn’t say I like Edinson for matchups.  I’d say I like him for all leagues.  He’s in a terrific pitching park where his walks won’t haunt him as bad, get on board!

Derek Jeter – 2-for-6 with a homer the day after going 4-for-4.  Looks like someone’s hitting the Carrow’s for the Early Bird Special.  Minka used to love his enlarged pro stats.

Danny Duffy – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners (1 hit), 8 Ks.  Granted, it was against the A’s, who have hitters that their own mother wouldn’t draft, but Duffy looked solid but wild.  That is his downfall as of right now, “solid but wild.”

Vladimir Guerrero – In police custody after a bar brawl in the Dominican Republic.  Guerrero said he had nothing to do with the inciting argument and that he was just the designated hitter.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.

1) What’s your thoughts on Jerry Sands for 2012?  What would your projections for him be?

Coming off a big 2010 (35 homers, .981 OPS) between Single- and Double-A, Sands was so impressive in camp and in the first few weeks at Triple-A that the Dodgers surprised us all by making it only to April 17 before recalling him. In his time in the bigs, he was really two different players; the first edition of Sands lasted with the big club until June, struggling terribly to put up a .200/.294/.328 line. After mercifully being sent back to the minors, he made some significant mechanical adjustments and returned to the Dodgers in September, playing every day and bashing out a .342/.415/.493, admittedly over just 20 games.

He’s going to be 24 in 2012, gets phenomenal reviews for his makeup and coachability, and he has absolutely nothing left to prove in the minors, so my outlook should be bright. I’d like to say that he could do a .260/.340/.450 line with ~15 homers and ~35 doubles, which isn’t exactly superstardom but is still plenty good from a player in his first full year.

Unfortunately, Ned Colletti was so infatuated with the one good month Juan Rivera had that he felt the need to go throw $4.5m at him, and the Dodgers don’t pay that kind of money to someone who they don’t plan on starting every day. So it remains to be seen if Sands starts the year on the bench – there’s plenty of room for a righty bat who can spell Andre Ethier in RF and James Loney at 1B – or if he starts back in Triple-A to get daily playing time.

2. Andre Ethier is a popular bounce back candidate for 2012.  Do you have the same feelings?  What do you expect from him this year?

I agree. Ethier has always been the type of player who’s never really been as good as he thinks he is, but I do think everything has lined up for him to have a really good season this year. Most importantly, he’s healthy, after dealing with a broken finger in 2010 and suffering through a knee that eventually required surgery in 2012. You can see that he started well in each year and went downhill after trying to return too soon (in 2010) or trying to play through it (in 2011).

In addition, Ethier is a notoriously emotional player, one who thrives on the idea that he doesn’t receive enough respect. (This is the same guy who complained, just hours before Opening Day last year, that the Dodgers might actually non-tender him following the season.) He’s entering his walk year in 2012, and there’s been no progress on an extension for him, after the Dodgers have locked up both Chad Billingsley and Matt Kemp in the last year, and he’s clearly behind Clayton Kershaw on the priority list. There’s also been plenty of noise that he’s unhappy in Los Angeles and might prefer to play at home in Arizona, or in Boston with buddy Dustin Pedroia, or anywhere else, so a healthy Ethier with a lot to prove should turn into offensive production.

3) Dee Gordon — over/under for 45 steals?

Over. He might only get on base 45 times this entire season, but he’ll steal at least one every time. Seriously, just look at this animation-heavy post that may destroy your browser – he’s the fastest player I’ve ever seen. It remains to be seen if his zero-power approach will prevent pitchers from ever giving him a free pass, but if he’s healthy, he’ll get his 45. That’s really the biggest issue with him, because he’s so scrawny that it’s not hard to see him getting banged up easily, as we saw near the end of last year.

4) Javy Guerra didn’t do horrible last year, but everyone, including me, wants Kenley Jansen to close games in 2012.  Will it happen?  How do you see the saves breaking down this year for the Dodgers?

Guerra’s going to start the season as the stopper, simply because he’s now a Proven Closer™. You know, nerves of steel, guts of lava, balls of adamantium, all that. I think that status comes with a merit badge and a pass to the secret Proven Closer™ lounge in the basement of every stadium. He was actually pretty surprisingly effective last year, so he hasn’t given the team a reason to make the switch, and while this doesn’t help fantasy players, you could make a pretty good argument that having Jansen available to put out fires in the 7th and 8th is a far more effective use of his skills than shoehorning him into the 9th.

All that being said… Guerra walked 7.3/9 in the minors in 2010, and was decidedly less effective in the second half of 2011 than in the first. Meanwhile, Jansen struck out four guys while I was writing this sentence. It won’t happen immediately, but sooner or later Guerra’s going to blow some leads and Jansen will be racking up saves by midseason.

5) If Frank McCourt owned a fantasy baseball team, how would he distinguish himself vs. the other owners in his league?

You know the guy who “forgets” to pay his entry fee before the draft, and then keeps claiming “oh, it’s in the mail” throughout the season, and then as his team falls further out of the race he ignores the question entirely before claiming that the league was unfair anyway? We all know that guy. We hate that guy. He’d be that guy.

Okay, so it’s not the best 2012 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2012 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting from my top 100 for 2012 fantasy baseball and top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Honestly, I could draft another 25 teams from those lists, and they’d all be different.  If I took Longoria in the 1st round, everything after it would change.  For this exercise, I’m taking Swiggy first, because, well, I have him first overall.  Then once I take him at number one, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then choose two players within the next 24 picks, then 2 players in the next 24 picks and so on until the end of the top 100.  Just like a snake draft.  It would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Halladay, Verlander and Kershaw in the first round and I was able to take Longoria in the 2nd round, but since Miggy and him are in my first 10 picks, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Then, as we all know, once you get into the 100′s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  So for this exercise, once I get to pick #101, I’m going to pick two players every twenty picks, rather than every 24 picks.  That’s to account for the wide margin between ADP and where players are drafted.  Finally, because there is so much latitude in the last 100, I gave myself free reign to fill up my team.  Throughout the draft, I also gave myself the ability to reach to a lower draft pick, but not reach forward.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench, just like the Razzball Commenter Leagues that are signing up still.  Anyway, here’s the best 2012 fantasy baseball team:

C: Joe Mauer (10)

1B:  Miggy Cabrera (1)

2B:  Chase Utley (5)

3B:  David Wright (2)

SS: Dee Gordon (15)

MI: Zack Cozart (16)

CI: Adam Lind (7)

OF:  Jay Bruce (3)

OF: Drew Stubbs (6)

OF: Andre Ethier (8)

OF: Torii Hunter (12)

OF: Lorenzo Cain (17)

UTIL: Chris Heisey (25)

P:  Madison Bumgarner (4)

P: Anibal Sanchez (9)

P: Matt Moore (11)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (13)

P: Ryan Madson (14)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Walden (19)

P: Kyle Farnsworth (20)

P: Brad Peacock (21)

BENCH:

P:  Ted Lilly (22)

P: Jim Johnson (23)

P: Aroldis Chapman (24)

So what do we learn from that in the most general sense?  You don’t have to draft pitchers early.  For those looking at my staff and thinking it won’t compete, my last year’s staff when I did this dream team post was:

P:  Jon Lester (5)

P: Dan Haren (8)

P: John Axford (13)

P: Daniel Hudson (12)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (14)

P: Chris Perez (15)

P: Craig Kimbrel (17)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Zimmermann (19)

BENCH:

P:  Ryan Madson (20)

P: Jason Motte (21)

P: Rafael Soriano (22)

You can switch Mike Minor out of there for Beachy too, because once he was in the rotation I switched the two of them on all of my teams.  As I’ve said in the past, I may not know a damn thing, but I can pick a pitching staff.  Seriously, Lester, Haren, Hudson and Chacin were all you needed.  Then you throw in Beachy, Madson, Kimbrel and Axford and you have 12′s in every pitching category.  And that’s not considering you could’ve dropped Soriano and picked up a great waiver wire guy.  This shows you that you need to really load up on hitters early, because, as much as you like that late-round-flyer man in the 18th round to be your corner guy, it’s probably not gonna work out for you.  Make sure you have at least two outfielders, a 2nd baseman, 3rd baseman and 1st baseman in the first ten rounds.  In my team above, I even reached way down for Ethier in the 8th round because I wanted to make sure I had an extra bat.  Also, I find myself grabbing Mauer this year to offset Stubbs and other average drains.  No one’s getting anything from catcher, so may as well get some average there if he comes at the right price.  I am not reaching for him.  If he’s there in the 9th to 10th rounds, great.  In the end, this really is just an exercise.  It’s fun though!  For me.  So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.  Or not.  Decisions, decisions!

After the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  So I just copied the openings from previous years where applicable.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Drew Stubbs – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Kendrick.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

22. Krispie Young – Krispie is another guy that I kinda wanted to move to another tier and he’s even pretty far below Stubbs (though it sure doesn’t seem that way in these rankings).  What Krispie has going for him that Beej and Stubbs don’t is 25-plus homer power.  He’s pretty seriously deficient in average though, and when I’m saying that compared to Stubbs and Upton, it’s saying something.  Grey said, “Something.”  See?  2012 Projections:  85/25/80/.235/25

23. Jason Heyward – This is probably the furthest I’m out on a limb with an outfielder.  He could be a worse pick than Markakis.  Last year Heyward hurt his shoulder, then Glass Chipper started questioning his manhood even though Chipper invented the oblique just so he could miss 40 games a year.  Heyward’s BABIP was obscenely low so he should hit at least 40 points higher without much effort.  Hitting for a better average with a healthier shoulder should help him build confidence, move him up in the order and hit for more power.  You could blend those variables together and you may end up with a wheatgrass/kale antioxidant health drink that is supposed to be good for you but just makes you want to vomit.  If at any point in the spring there’s news that his shoulder is still bothering him, I’ll drop him way down in the rankings.  2012 Projections:  80/22/90/.280/10

24. Howie Kendrick – I went over Kendrick’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

25. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gordon.  I call this tier, “I could see myself missing out on these guys because others are believing them more than me.” Most ‘perts are looking at Choo’s 2011 as an aberration.  That wasn’t Soo Choo, that was Soju.  An Asian flush with bad luck.  So last year he had a .317 BABIP (off his career rate, but not really that terrible), a 1o.4% HR/FB (again, not hideous), a 10.1% walk rate (not bad) and a 21.8% K-rate (around his career rate).  He missed a bunch of games because of injury.  If he’s healthy, he’s back to the 17-20 homer, 17-20 steal guy.  Yay.  I don’t know; it’s all right.  I’m not excited to draft him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/85/.280/17

26. Carl Crawford – Last year, things started poorly and went from bad to Mad Libs in the cliche.  Slumps get into guys’ heads and if there isn’t a big girl around to have sex with that slump can last longer than anyone wants.  I’m willing to ignore last year.  Really, I am.  Then the wrist surgery this offseason.  Damn, that wrist got me pist.  Red Sox are reporting he should be ready for Opening Day.  I’m reporting he’s going to miss a month.  There’s a small silver lining.  His wrists aren’t his legs.  Hey, I should’ve gotten better than a C in Human Anatomy!  If he falls, I could see gambling on him, but it’s probably not going to happen if you follow my rankings.  2012 Projections:  75/10/70/.280/30

27. Alex Gordon – Here’s what I said at the end of last year for Gordon, “Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peek under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2012 Projections:  85/20/100/.280/12

28. Brett Gardner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rasmus.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys for my teams.  They might all end up getting sleeper posts.  You’ve been forewarned.  (Bee tee dubya, the projections in this tier are a bit optimistic, but I’m sick of hiding my excitement.  Let me free-ball and show you my love!)”  I’m unabashedly a fan of Gardner, which makes very little sense if you’ve read this site for an extended period of time because usually I ignore SAGNOF’ers and just grab one later or off waivers.  To me, Gardner is underrated, which is odd because Yankees are usually overrated.  Gardner is just an enigma wrapped inside a riddle inside a fortune cookie that reads, “Person who sleeps with scratchy rear wakes with smelly finger.” 2012 Projections:  105/8/50/.280/50

29. Jayson Werth – Ponder this, guys and three girl readers, is Werth that different from Corey Hart?  Okay, stop pondering it, your eyes are crossing.  He’s not hitting 35+ homers again like he used to in Citizens Flank, but he should also be better than last year and the Nats offense is looking solid.  Yeah, I know how weird that sounds.  Don’t point out the obvious.  2012 Projections:  75/22/90/.265/15

30. Logan Morrison – His Isolated Power was .221.  Dan Uggla’s was .220.  Paul Konerko’s .217.  Jay Bruce’s .217.  Logan Morrison only hit 23 homers last year.  He missed almost 40 games last year because of injuries and his inability to put the cone of silence on his Twitter account.  He’ll only be 24 years old for the better part of 2012 and the Miami Marlins revamped their lineup by throwing some fabulous moolah around for a World Series ring.   2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.270/5

31. Michael Cuddyer – Went over Cuddyer’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

32. Peter Bourjos – What does it mean that Bourjos is ranked this high?  It means we’re all screwed.  Sorry, don’t mean to yell fire in the theater of Razzball, but outfield is shallower than a conversation with a Kardashian.  I already went over my Bourjos 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while refusing to eat at Subway because it reeks of onions.  2012 Projections: 85/15/50/.255/35

33. Alex Rios – I wrote an Alex Rios 2012 fantasy post.  It pained me to write that post and I hope you forgive me but I felt like it needed to be said.  Now please forget the apology if I’m right or forget that I wrote the post if I’m wrong.  Thanks, over-the-internet friend!  2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22

34. Colby Rasmus – I’m out on serious limbs with some the players’ rankings in this tier.  Just when you thought I was totally out of my gourd with my Rios ranking, here’s Rasmus about 35 spots ahead of where I see some other ‘perts ranking him.  The key thing with drafting is you are drafting for the upcoming year, don’t try and put together a team that would’ve kicked serious booty while bagging last year’s doubloons.  That’s not going to win you something, but hopefully I just learned you something.  Hey, that sounds like a rhyme Pitbull would make.  Blah blah blah Kodak, blah blah blah Kodak.  2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10

35. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ethier.  I call this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft these guys, but I’d rather not.”  On first glance, Corey Hart’s season last year looks okay.  On second glance, his 2010 season of 31 homer, 7 steal 2010 and 2011 of 26/7 look remarkably similar — he simply had 15 less games last year.  On third glance, you see his fly ball rate plummeted and start to think his homer per fly ball rate is unsustainable.  On fourth glance, you start to wonder why you’re looking at Corey Hart’s numbers four times.  On fifth glance, there is no fifth glance.  On sixth glance, you think about how he may not break 75 runs or RBIs without Prince Fielder, fifty games of The Hebrew Herpes and the invariably injured Weeks.  On seventh glance, you accidentally hypnotize yourself and begin to cluck like a chicken in front of an audience of strangers.  2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8

35 1/2. Yoenis Cespedes – I went over my Yoenis Cespedes fantasy while studying for Jeopardy!  2012 Projections: 65/20/80/.250/12

36. Nick Markakis – The last four years his homer totals have been 20, 18, 12, 15.  One of these years he may stand up and say he is Sparkakis, but until then I don’t care to gamble on a guy that is averaging 16 1/4 homers a year.  I mean, who ever even heard of quarter homers?  Those are singles, Nick.  Elevate the ball.  2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10

37. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

38. Andre Ethier – This tier that I’m planning on missing makes an already shallow outfield that much more shallow.  I get that.  That’s why I named this tier, “I’ll reluctantly draft…”  I don’t like Ethier, but I can’t turn my nose up at dozens of guys this year.  I don’t buy into Ethier bouncing back to being a top 20 outfielder.  I say if you draft him, you’re going to get a top 30 outfielder at best.  That means he’s ranked near his ceiling.  Opportunity costs will probably have me looking elsewhere.  Hypothetical things that have no weight need to be weighed.  It’s all very scientific.  2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295

39. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Vernon Wells then starts again in the top 60 for 2012 fantasy baseball so I can sneak in the SAGNOF tier.  I call this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  The guys in this tier are mostly okay, unless you draft your team then get in a DeLorean and play out your fantasy league in 2004.  Then they’re awesome!  Maybe one of the guys in this tier has a Lance Berkman 2011 year.  There always seems to be one, but don’t say you know which guy it is — someone might be listening.  If I had to bet on a surprising year from one vet, I’d go with Torii Hunter.  Lineup’s going to be the best he’s had in a while and he can lamp in the outfield.  Will he definitely surprise like that doode from Community coming out with one of the best albums of 2011?  Nah, but the Torii Hunter gambino won’t cost you much.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7

40. Vernon Wells – Cause crazy talk isn’t just something that I reserve for Alex Rios, I also wrote a Vernon Wells sleeper post.  No, there will be no sleeper post about Todd Helton, but that’s funny and sarcastic.  You’re a double threat!  2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8

40 1/16. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  I just throw all these schmohawk steals guys in the same tier, because, well, frankly, interjection, they’re the same shizz.  Bourn gets you nothing but steals.  If you think that’s a smart way to build a team, I got a Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley or yadda³ off waivers that says you should follow the SAGNOF theorem of evolution that says these guys ain’t got no face.  Double negatives being damned, and all.  2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50

40 1/8. Emilio Bonifacio – I went over Bonifacio’s projections in the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

40 1/4. Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp could be a cheap Brett Gardner.  Yes, I’m being cereal.  2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35

40 what/fraction-is-this? Nyjer Morgan – Or should I say Tony Plush?  I could see a scenario where Morgan gets confused by not seeing Fielder and Braun and steals two bases in one inning for two different teams.  Sorta like a Joel Youngblood move, only crazier.  2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27

40 3/4. Juan Pierre – Doesn’t have a team yet, but if he gets an everyday job then he’ll give you the usual.  If you don’t know what Juan Pierre gives you fantasy-wise, I have a copper-plated zinc portrait of Lincoln to sell you for $19.99.  2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30

40 7/8. Rajai Davis – Doesn’t have a starting job right now, but didn’t last year and stole 34 bases.  Nothing like a basestealer that has a walk rate under 5%.  Rajai, you can’t steal first base, but you can throw your elbow into a pitch or two.  Keep that in mind.  2012 Projections:  40/1/20/.260/30

2011 was supposed to be a big year for Shin-Soo Choo — he was coming off his 2nd straight 20-20 season, his looming military service requirement to the Korean government was in the rearview mirror and he was just entering his prime age. Many (including yours truly) predicted a true breakout, and drafted him as an OF1. The statline that ensued packed about as much punch as Ralph Wiggum’s love life. Choo started the season in a horrendous slump before being caught for a DUI, and from there his slump spiraled out of control. Finally and mercifully his season hit rock bottom when a thumb injury sidelined him for a long period of time. Hailing from a culture that holds honor and duty in very high esteem, it would be foolish to say that the distraction of the DUI was not at least partly to blame for his first half struggles.

The story takes a positive turn after that, as Choo successfully and uneventfully rehabbed from his injury and returned in the second half.  The results were enough to remind owners of why they spent a high draft pick. He flexed his 20-20 skillset, hitting 3 homeruns and stealing 4 bags in August to go along with an otherworldly .348 batting average. This resurgence was ultimately cut short when Choo fell victim to “the year of the oblique,” straining the pesky muscle and ending his season prematurely. When evaluating Choo for early 2012 drafts, I find myself largely ignoring his abysmal first half 2011 and looking to that solid month of August. In doing so I am trusting that the problems were largely between the ears and that he put them in the past in the 2nd half and will be fine for this season. His ADP currently sits in the 70s, which is a pretty sizeable value for a true 5 category threat with a proven floor of production.

While we are on the subject of toolsy outfielders, I may be in the minority but I’m buying Carl Crawford this year. Yes, last year was about as ugly as it gets, and yes he still will probably be relegated to hitting in a less-than-advantageous spot in Boston’s lineup in 2012. These rather unsavory facts aside, I think a pretty convincing reason can be made to draft Crawford at his current ADP (mid-late 3rd round). At a glance his paltry 11 homeruns look bad, but consider that his career average for homeruns in a season sits somewhere around 15. Additionally, his 2011 ISO is actually HIGHER than his career ISO. Recall that you are NOT drafting Crawford for his power. You drafted him because he is a speedster that hits double digit home runs. He hit that power mark last year, and will continue to do that going forward.

Since power is not Crawford’s game the bigger issue was obviously his inexplicable drop in steals from 47 in 2010 to 18 in 2011. The aforementioned position in the lineup certainly played a part, as did nagging injuries, but in my opinion the largest single factor in this drop was his utilization. I really think that the Red Sox put the brakes on his game. This year, sweeping changes have been made to the Red Sox in both the front office and managerial positions. Since they have made such a huge investment in Crawford, they will really have no choice but to turn him loose going forward. This, coupled with an additional year getting used to the “pressure” environment in Boston, makes me bullish on Crawford this year.

Some more quick busts turned 2012 fantasy baseball value picks:

Nick Swisher – Still hitting in a bandbox in a great lineup. Yankees do not have better options anyway.

Kevin Youkilis – GGOW (Greek God of Walks) getting drafted in the 6th round at a weak 3B position? Yes, please.

Ike Davis – The latest casualty to the Mets’ training staff looks like a fine value at the end of drafts this year. Keeping with our Simpsons theme, pretty sure Dr. Nick could do a better job than the scrubs treating these injuries.

Brandon Belt – Maybe we were a year early on the hype train? At a round 15 price tag, I’ll pay to find out.

Andre Ethier – No, we haven’t forgotten about you. If your knee is finally right you might win some leagues as a flier OF3.

Jaime Garcia – Not really a “bust,” but HUGE home/road splits kept him from realizing true potential. Maybe he’s afraid of airplanes? Could be huge if he figures out how to pitch on the road.

Jose Tabata – Bloom is off the rose a bit with nagging injuries, but Shane Victorino upside hasn’t gone anywhere.

Adam Dunn – There’s not much more that can be said about his 2011. Hopefully it really was Ozzie Guillen that was the problem and he could go back to hitting 40 HRs for his fantasy owners. Still hits in a favorable environment.