Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew - I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay - I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado - Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez - Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora - Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley - Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez - Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier - Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit - You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta - See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu - I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady - Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa - You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis - I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin - Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff - Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth - You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton - To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia - Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick - Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19

Already went over the top 20 outfielders for 2008 (and the top 20 catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops for 2008), but outfielders (and starters) will need to go 40 deep to get the full picture. The lack of offense continues into the top forty outfielders (and will be seen in the reverse for top forty pitchers as it works in their favor). BTW, there was some slight confusion as to the rankings, I’m basing them on ESPN’s Player Rater. That’s why I can say I’d prefer Carlos Lee to Vlad, even though Lee is ranked by ESPN after him. I use the ESPN Player Rater so I have a neutral base, because I don’t think it’s fair for me to say I ranked B.J. Upton 10th in the preseason and now I conveniently rank him 10th again. No, I shouldn’t rank him again. Upton was ranked 10th in the preseason by me and ranked 21st by ESPN at the end of the year. Now whether you trust or agree with ESPN is a whole different matter. To further the discussion, Rudy will shortly be bringing his Point Shares to a computer screen near you for our final say on 2008 performances. Anyway, here’s the top 21 - 40 Outfielders for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. B.J. Upton - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40

22. Randy Winn - I’m pretty sure Winn was on waivers in some of my leagues and I ignored him. To my detriment? Perhaps, but a 10/25 season is nice from your 2nd basemen, not your 2nd outfielder. (This is what I mean by not agreeing with ESPN rankings.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  84/10/64/.306/25

23. Vladimir Guerrero - Vlad’s numbers are a pale imitation of his former glory and getting paler. Giving the nickname, “Vlad the Impaler,” a whole new meaning. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  105/32/125/.315/3, Final Numbers:  85/27/91/.303/5

24. Alfonso Soriano - When you consider he only played in 109 games, these are great numbers and right in line with his predictions. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (right here, in fact). A player that gets injured isn’t the worst thing for your fantasy team. If you were to have Soriano for all of his healthy games then, say, Elijah Dukes for all of Soriano’s injured games, you had great numbers at that position. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  115/35/75/.280/20, Final Numbers:  76/29/75/.280/19

25. Magglio Ordonez - …Whereas someone like Mags who gives you 561 at-bats and only 21 homers isn’t ideal. Maybe Vlad or Al-So can teach Mags how to give these stats in 150 less at-bats and then get injured. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/110/.300, Final Numbers:  72/21/103/.317

26. Carlos Lee - Another guy that would rank much higher if I were ranking them. Chuck Lee fought the power a bit less this year because of a fractured pinkie, but if you grabbed someone like, say, Ethier for the final month-plus while Lee was out, you had a very productive outfielder. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/120/.295/7, Final Numbers:  61/28/100/.314/4

27. Xavier Nady - Let’s look at what I said on April 7th, “…he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? …history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere.” And that’s me quoting me! You gotta also like how I told you not to drop Carlos Lee for him, cause I knew Lee would come in just above him in the year end rankings.  Natch! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  76/25/97/.305/2

28. Raul Ibanez - The following is a story of you and Raul Ibanez — You grabbed Ibanez early on when he hit five home runs in April, then dropped him in May when he hit 2 HRs, then briefly considered grabbing him in July when he hit 6 HRs then kicked yourself for not picking him up in August when he hit 7 HRs, then finally grabbed in September when he hit .233 with 1 HR. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  85/23/110/.293/2

29. Willy Taveras - Sixty-eight steals and sixty-four runs. One more time for those who think a hyphen is a minus sign. Taveras had 68 steals and only 64 runs. In-cred-ible or incredible. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 64/1/26/.251/68

30. Torii Hunter - While talking about Abreu, I mentioned the other day how an outfielder going 20/20 is the best way to go unnoticed by fantasy teams. Well, here’s another guy that is in MLB’s Witness Protection Program with season after season of 20/20. Too bad Ambiorix Burgos is a pitcher; he could use this sort of anonymity right about now. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/100/.275/20, Final Numbers:  85/21/78/.278/19

31. Corey Hart - Corey Hart took a dump on teams in September with zero home runs and a .173 average. Either the pennant race got the best of him or all his bad ball swinging. Probably a bit of both. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.280/25, Final Numbers:  76/20/91/.268/23

32. Milton Bradley - He reached 400 at-bats for the first time since 2004 and, even more impressively, he had zero meltdowns (unless you count the time the Royal announcer had to lock himself in the booth to avoid Bradley attacking him, but since Bradley never got to him, we’ll give Bradley a pass). His healthy season showed that A) he is no longer a threat for 15 steals and B) he still misses close to 40 games even when healthy. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 78/22/77/.321/5

33. Curtis Granderson - I didn’t like him at all coming into this season. I felt like expectations were unreal. He turned out to prove me right and wrong. Right, because his final numbers were a letdown. Wrong, because he did take a step forward in walks and average against lefties. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  115/27/85/.280/25, Final Numbers:  112/22/66/.280/12

34. Andre Ethier - In the beginning of the year, The Pierre Situation™ infected the Dodgers’ outfield water supply to make it undrinkable. Luckily, Torre filtered Jones and Pierre so Ethier could run hot until his wife’s water broke in late September. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 90/20/77/.305/6

35. Mark DeRosa - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

36. Jayson Werth - Did the Dogers give up too early on Werth or did they realize they had exactly the same player in Ethier? Both probably. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 73/24/67/.273/20

37. Alexei Ramirez - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

38. Conor Jackson - Already went over Jackson in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

39. David DeJesus - I know your first inclination is to see DeJesus and think he was underrated, but “Blink,” you’re wrong. Sorry, Malcolm Gladwell. You were better off running hot waiver wire pickups out there every week than this schomhawk. A 12/11 in over 500 at-bats is not productive. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  70/12/73/.307/11

40. Hunter Pence - If he can get his steals up a bit, he might be able to snitch on the mafia and sneak his way into the MLB Witness Protection 20/20 Program. Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.290/17, Final Numbers:  78/25/83/.269/11

What’s the difference between the ‘Stros and Stroh’s beer? The beer has an H.  ‘Stros couldn’t manage one. While 110 pitches is a slight stretch for Zambrano given he had missed 2 starts to injury, that was just an exhibition game’s amount of work when Dusty was coaching him. If anyone could throw an 150 pitch no-hitter like the type we used to throw in Wiffle Ball, it was Zambrano. This was the first no-hitter for the Cubs since 1972 which was also the last year that they were within 65 years of a championship. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Price - In a relief appearance today against the Yankees, David Price made his major league debut. He pitched 5 and 2/3 innings, gave up 2 ER (only one really, the other scored off Hammel after he left) and he looked impressive against a top-notch offense. He’s scheduled for one start on September 23rd against the Orioles. He’s worth the spot start and he might have some value as a middle reliever for AL-Only teams the rest of the year, but David Price’s real value is in keeper leagues and for next year.

Max Scherzer - 6 IP, 1 ER with 9 Ks. Scherzer took it to the Reds like he was McCarthy.

Andy LaRoche - 3-for-4, but they were all singles. It’ll be interesting to see if the Pirates give LaRoche a chance to play next spring. It’ll be even more interesting to see if Andy LaRoche can live up to his billing as the superior LaRoche brother. Our prediction is that their performance doesn’t get the Pittsburgh faithful singing “We Are Family” anytime soon.

Aaron Cook - 8 IP, 0 ER, might have some value down the stretch if you’re streaming starters. Cook’s usually a pretty reliable, just above average pitcher.

Kevin Gregg - Pulled after pitching to one batter in the ninth. Lindstrom’s still the closer, he was just overworked. Gregg’s about as likely to take over the closer role again as the Marlins are to having a Fidel Castro Bobblehead Doll Day.

Phil Hughes - Will get the start this Wednesday against the White Sox. That doesn’t mean he needs to be on your team.

Vladimir Guerrero - Will sit out three to four games this week. I told you to drop Vlad the other day.

Andre Ethier - Missed the last two games of the Rockies series because his wife is giving birth. Will return to the team on Monday. Why isn’t Juan Pierre helping Ethier’s wife with Lamaze? Or freakin’ James Loney.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis! No, I am Sparkakis!

Oscar Salazar - 2 HRs. Who? Some total schmohawk, but he also went deep on Saturday. These last two days are surely aberrations (Word of the Day), but if he puts some aberrations together to turn them into regulariocities (Made Up Word of the Day), then you might want to grab him in H2H leagues.

Radhames Liz - 8 IP, 0 ER. Not an option in any league. Unless you’re in a league where your pitchers’ first names have to sound like an expensive condom.

Nick Blackburn - 4 IP, 6 ER. His last name and strikeout totals make him sound like a Pirate. He’s not, he’s a Twin and he has excellent command, which makes him yawnstipating but effective.

Oliver Perez - 7 IP, 2 ER. So consistently inconsistent that it was only fitting that the Mets’ consistently inconsistent bullpen blew his chance at a win.

Luis Ayala - Blew a big game for the Mets. The kind of game that pundits point to as the one that got away. Obviously no one ever told pundits it’s impolite to point. The blown save and breach of etiquette caused Billy Wagner to cry again.

Cameron Maybin - Will be called up on Monday. Could be cheap steals if the Marlins play him. SAGNOF.

Matt Garza - Will start on three days rest on Wednesday. This isn’t great news. He had a nice rhythm going where he was good every other start. This move might throw off his rhythm.

Jeremy Sowers - In three innings, Sowers gave up 3 ER on 75 pitches. Or about half as many pitches Lincecum threw in a shutout on Saturday.

Justin Upton - HR yesterday that went about 450 feet to straightaway center. I’ll be getting excited about this guy in the offseason.

Shane Victorino - HR in the first game, 4-for-4 in the second game. The Flyin’ Hawaiian got his wings back.

Brett Myers - 9 IP, 1 ER and only 2 hits. Afterwards, Brett felt really bad saying he didn’t mean two-hitter.

One guy you drafted in the 2nd round. The Ethier guy you drafted in the last round just so you’d have someone to draft when Rauch became the closer for the Nots. One guy will get drafted again in the first five rounds next year; the Ethier guy may be grabbed as a fifth outfielder then dropped when he’s doing a blahtoon with some other Dodgers schmohawk. None of this affects what you are doing for the next two weeks of this season. For realz! No, seriously. For realz! Don’t make me get punny…. Fine! Ethier you want to win or you don’t. No one’s going to say in October, “Hey, you came in 2nd, but at least you held onto Doumit. You owed it to him after all the great games he gave you in June.” Throw your loyalty out the window. Vlad was good okay in the summer, but the Angels have clinched and they’re going to rest their big man. Ethier has been the hottest hitter in all of baseball for over a month. Respectively, that’s buy and sell or drop and add at this point in the season, because they mean the same thing. You knew that though, that’s like Econ 101 in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Kelly Johnson - Mentioned him the other day. Where, Grey? My brain hurts! Pickup Kelly Johnson. BTW, you’re lame, random italicized voice in my head.

Asdrubal Cabrera - Batting close to .500 for the last seven games. At this point, I don’t care that he batted .240 on the year or that his first name is a anal leakage diagnosis. This is September! Act like it! (Sorry, for all the exclamation points, but I just bought a new coffee maker and I’ve been going a bit overboard on the caffeine. Speaking of ‘Overboard,’ at least once a year I’ll talk to my Mom and she’ll be watching this Goldie Hawn classic. It never gets old. I think that’s the ultimate mom movie.)

Joey Votto - In the last two weeks, Votto’s been more valuable than Teixeira, Berkman, Atkins, Youuuuuuk, Adrian Gonzalez, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman and Prince Fielder. (I don’t endorse dropping Fielder, no matter how good it might feel.) Votto’s the da bomb as they said in high schools back in 2004.

Rajai Davis - It’s with great pause I suggest this schmohawk. But if you need speed, eff it in the cooley and grab Rajai.

Pablo Sandoval - Maybe he won’t slow down until April. Maybe he’ll hit .330 for the next seven years. Who cares? What, you plan on keeping Pudge for next year?

Brandon Wood - For about two weeks now, I’ve been pushing Wood hard. Um… Wait. No, that’s what I meant.

Blake DeWitt - He has 2nd base elgibility. Holy heffin’ hey, are you kidding me?! He’s in Coors this weekend. Why isn’t he on your team? What, you have Polanco? Ugh. I’ll never understand you. Never!

Jesse Litsch - No, I don’t really like the Jays pitcher/slash Rays ex-bat boy, but I do right now. Just be careful against the Sawx next time out.

James Parr - Has yet to give up a run, but that could end in a big way or not. You have to take chances in the final weeks when players like Lackey are being skipped because their club clinched.

Kevin Slowey - I already explained why I think Slowey’s a keeper. Why would you want me to repeat myself?

Bronson Arroyo - I hate this schmohawk as much as the next guy, but he’s pitching well. You have to take some chances in these final weeks.

Taylor Teagarden - 4 HRs in 24 at-bats.

SELL

Gerald Laird - 6 HR in 305 at-bats. See a quarter of an inch above.

John Lackey - Mentioned him above. I know what you’re thinking. His two starts are better than most guy’s three starts. True, but what if they pull him after 5 innings of the 2nd start because they just want him to throw. Or maybe he pitches surrounded by the Angels B offense. Still as appealing?

Victor Martinez - Maybe next year he’ll come back and he’ll be like Resurrection: Tupac, but for right now he looks like Black Sheep’s followup to A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing.

Rickie Weeks - I gotta say whoever is holding onto him, you show great loyalty. Not the best judgment, but your loyalty is impeccable.

Conor Jackson - Imagine a world where a first baseman gave you a little bit of everything, but that little bit reminds you of a 2nd baseman’s stats. Then you have Conor Jackson attached to play the lead. Would that be something you’d be interested in?

Pronk, a nickname for Travis Hafner which stands for Project Donkey, used to be cute, now it’s just stupid. Project Donkey? How about Project Jackass? When you drafted him, you wanted Josh Hamilton — Project Junkie — numbers. Not Project Flunky. David Eckstein, Project Spunky, is even better. Hafner looks like Project Monkey, which is a simian project that says 100 monkeys with a 100 bats can play pepper even if there’s a sign that says “No Pepper Games.” So, Hafner’s there, on your waivers, and you want some pop, what do you do hotshot? Do you pickup Hafner? No, you click Ignore. There’s lots of guys that are currently hot that you can use to plug-in for slumping hitters or injuries. If Hafner gets hot in a day or two, then grab him, but chances are he’s not going to be up to full speed until it’s too late. Maybe the Indians can send him to the Venezuelan Winter Leagues, so he can get hurt in November and then be ready for spring training. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Phillips - Broken right index finger and his season comes to a close. I’m going to go over preseason projections vs. end of the season numbers in the off-season (we will have posts here all winter!), but I wanted to look real quick at what I wrote back in January, “Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is ‘all in his head.’” Well, he wasn’t benched until August for the slump that was “all in his head,” but let’s look at Brandon Phillips’s final numbers: 79/21/77/.262/23. Now, if you were here in April, this is not a surprise to you, but when he got hot in the beginning of the year, I told you to trade Brandon Phillips. And that’s me quoting me, linking to me and quoting me again!

Paul Konerko - Sprained MCL — which is not the Razzball Commenters League that is coming right down to the wire. Will it be the upstart girl? The other white meat? A dark horse? Stay tuned! Or not! That’s on you. — Konerko’s probably done for the year. You have to find someone else to hit home runs on your bench.

Andre Ethier - 23 for his last 46. That’s .500 or “What will win the NL West, Alex?”

Josh Anderson - Schmohawk I mentioned in Friday’s fantasy baseball players to get post, he stole a base yesterday and he’s been leading off for the Braves.

Wade LeBlanc - 6 IP, 1 ER. Risky going forward, but anyone who pitches their home games in Petco is a potential ace. I’m pointing my oversized foam finger at you, Baek.

Warner Madrigal - Got the save. Just when you think you understand what the Rangers are doing, they go and do some dumb shizz. This move is perplexing because Frank Francisco probably was available. Let’s hope Warner got the save because the Rangers wanted to see how he looked rather than anything being wrong with Francisco. Warner Madrigal? What’s that, a German songbird?

Alfredo Aceves - 7 IP, 1 ER. It’s been a while since Yankees fans had anything to get excited about, but Aceves looks like he could have some late-September value.

Troy Glaus - Day-to-day with a strained right shoulder. Look elsewhere.

Chris Volstad - Came out of the game when he was hit by a grounder. He should make his next start.

Dontrelle Willis - Skinny CC Sabathia will make a start next Monday against the A’s. Here’s hoping they let him hit so he has some value for the Tigers.

Carlos Delgado - 3-for-3, 2 HRs. He looks like a non-Latin 35 again.

Jeremy Sowers - 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks. He’s someone to look at down the stretch in your leagues.

Eugenio Velez - Perhaps driving in the winning run will earn him some playing time. Ivan Ochoa, the speedy schmohawk that did start, is oh-for-September. Those that have lost Phillips and/or Upton recently might want to keep an eye on Velez. (That’s if you have two good eyes. If you wear an eye patch, don’t waste your one good eye on Velez.)