Fantasy Baseball Advice

That Medlen Kid

May 06, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 142 Comments →

Here’s what my crystal ball said on March 5th, “(Medlen) averaged over a K an inning last year.  Will start the year as an MR, barring an injury to someone… *cough* Jar Jar *cough*.  Medlen will get into the rotation shortly.  Meesa tinks Jar Jar won’t make it the whole year healthy.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Kris Medlen is now the starter as the Braves wash Jurrjens out of their hair for at least three weeks while he deals with a strained hamstring.  I grabbed Medlen in one league where it made sense.  He gets a tough first matchup going against the Phillies at Citizens Flank.  If Medlen pitches well in his first start, he’ll be added everywhere.  So depending how bad you need him, you add him now or prepare to rush to grab him on Saturday.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jason Heyward – Left yesterday’s game with a sore groin, which would be a good name for a Viagra-type drug, but spelled “soar” and with an exclamation mark.  Oh, and speaking of groins…

Bobby Cox – The congratulatory cake made by the Senate for Bobby Cox had an unfortunate misspelling.  Maybe Jim Eisenreich was the baker.

Andy Pettitte – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks and left with elbow inflammation.  That’s now three of the core four that are sore.  Jeter better take it easy on the pasta diving.

Nick Johnson – 3-for-3 with a homer.  He has a .171 average and a .396 OBP.  That almost seems impossible, right?  Seriously, no joke.  Batting in front of Tex and A-Rod and he leads the league in walks.  Incredible.

Alfredo Aceves – Got the save since Joba was used the last two days.  This was after the Orioles pitched Alfredo Simon.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first time two guys named after pasta sauce appeared in the same game since Alfredo Griffin and Bolognese Penne squared off in 1982.  Actually, they didn’t say that.  But something that was overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “Thomas, in accounting, broke his own record of 37 minutes when he took 45 minutes to sign a birthday card with ‘Your (sic) the best.’”

Adam Jones – Missed the game with dreckitude, I mean, a hip strain.  He’s supposed to play on Thursday.  Yay.

Ty Wigginton – Hit his 9th homer yesterday.  Or the same amount of homers as Andruw Jones.  That’s only 7 more homers than Teixeira.  Pardon me as I go stick my head in the oven.

Aramis Ramirez – Hey, the power of persuasion worked!  Aramis was moved down the order.  Now how about my Powerball numbers coming in!

Kevin Slowey – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks and lucky to get out with the Win.  Last year, Slowey had screws put in his wrist and now he’s putting the screws to his owners.  The screws seem to be effecting his pinpoint control that made him the pitcher that he was.  In 2009, through 90+ innings, he had 15 walks.  He has 11 through 34+ innings this year.

Denard Span – 11 for his last 22 and has 7 Steals and 19 Runs on the season.  Heading for exactly the type of season I thought he would when I put him down for 100/10/70/.300/22.

David Ortiz – Hit his third homer in four games, while he bats .171.  Yeah, he’s “not done,” he’s just a “very poor imitation of his younger self.”

Huston Street – Supposed to start a rehab assignment on Monday which will put him on schedule to return in about two weeks.

Franklin Morales – His leash got even shorter last night.  If you’re looking for vulture saves, grab Corpas.

Johnny Damon – Left yesterday’s game with a right calf spasm.  Damon is day-to-day, man. (<–almost a palindrome!)

Miguel Cabrera – 2 homers as he took a double shot off the Slow Twin Fizz.

Alex Avila – Hit his first two homers of the season yesterday.  I grabbed him in a deep 2 catcher league hoping this is a sign of a potential breakout.  He does need to do battle with Laird for the starting job, but Laird’s hitting .141 with one homer and a bruised shin.  Not a braised shin though, which is delicious!

Manny Ramirez – Returns on Saturday after playing today for the Inland Empire, which is on the planet Naboo.

Ian Desmond – 1-for-4 with his third homer.  Now has 3 homers and 3 steals, which is yawnstipating while it’s happening, but it’s still 12/12 at the end of the year.  Now someone just needs to convince Riggleman Desmond should be in the two hole and not the crap that is usually there.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  His ERA now stands at 1.49.  His xFIP is 4.09, which means he’s getting very lucky, but no one thought Zito was a sub-2 ERA pitcher anyway, right?

Shane Victorino – 2-for-4 with his 6th homer.  Or one more homer than Ryan Howard.  Zoinks!

Carlos Lee – Home run.  Final Lee.

Brandon Morrow – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Frequent commenter, penpen, brought up a good point.  With Romero, Morrow and Cecil, the Jays are like the high risk/high reward hodgepadres.  The hodgepodjays:  They’ll give you Ks and solid games against bad teams.  Then tie you to the WHIPping post and get beat in what should be good matchups.

Adam Lind – 2-for-4, and his fourth homer.  He’s one hot streak away from being exactly where he was last year.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  Your call.

Fred Lewis – 5 for his last 10.  So far in his career he’s had “Grandpa” Al Lewis levels of production, but the Jays are pushing the issue with him as their leadoff man, so maybe the stability can produce the 15/15 season he’s hinted at in the past.

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Now has back-to-back decent starts.  Yes, I’m a glutton for punishment, but Cueto can pitch well if he finds his groove.

Jose Reyes – 0-for-5 as his average falls to .225.  I’m kinda at the point where I’m glad he’s not batting leadoff so maybe he gets one less at-bat.

Chris Perez – 1 2/3 IP, 3 unearned as he blew the save with the Ticker Shock.

Milton Bradley – Left in the middle of Tuesday’s game telling the manager, “I’m out of here.”  Ironically, Milton Bradley produces Sorry and not Risk.

Closer Look

May 04, 2010 By: Grey Category: Closers 240 Comments →

As I was thinking about Rudy going off and getting married, I needed a good cry, so I burned myself a sad song CD.  Rather than try and find 15 songs that all had the same sentiment, I just put Why Can’t I? by Liz Phair on there 15 times.  By the 12th repeat, I started to realize something, Liz Phair is talking about closers.  Picking up setup men that you hope become the closer?  “It’s an itch we know we are gonna scratch.”  When will Matt Thornton become the closer?  “Gonna take a while for this egg to hatch.”  Octavio Dotel is called into the game?  “Why can’t I breathe whenever I think about you?”  I know exactly what you mean, Liz Phair.  Frankly, I’m surprised no one else picked up on this hidden meaning.  This is our Helter Skelter.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon (Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima)
2. Jonathan Broxton (+1) (George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chih Kuo)
3. Mariano Rivera (-1) (Joba Chamberlain, Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte)
4. Carlos Marmol (+2) (John Grabow, Carlos Zambrano)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Joakim Soria (+2) (Kyle Farnsworth, Josh Rupe)
6. Francisco Rodriguez (Fernando Nieve, Jenrry Mejia)
7. Heath Bell (-2) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
8. Jose Valverde (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
9. Brian Wilson (+1) (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
10. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
11. David Aardsma (-2) (Mark Lowe, Brandon League)
12. Rafael Soriano (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell)
13. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito, Kris Medlen)
14. Ryan Franklin (Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte)
15. Jon Rauch (+12) (Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain)
16. Andrew Bailey (+1) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
17. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen, Scot Shields)
18. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer, Brian Sanches)
19. Matt Capps (+5) (Tyler Clippard, Brian Bruney, Mike MacDougal)
20. Matt Lindstrom (+10) (Brandon Lyon, Sammy Gervacio)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Chad Qualls– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit LaRoche in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. Bobby Jenks (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
22. Trevor Hoffman (-4) )(Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins)
23. Kevin Gregg (+2) (Jason Frasor, Scott Downs)
24. Octavio Dotel (-6) (Evan Meek, Brendan Donnelly, Joel Hanrahan)
25. Brad Lidge (+4) (Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, Chad Durbin)
26. Franklin Morales (+2) (Manny Corpas, Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street)
27. Chad Qualls (-4) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
28. Neftali Feliz (-11) (Frank Francisco, Chris Ray)
29. Chris Perez (-3) (Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Kerry Wood)
30. Alfredo Simon (-15) (Cla Meredith, Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez, Lester Freamon)

Closer Look

March 26, 2010 By: Grey Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft 151 Comments →

Joe Nathan and Huston Street are gone and everyone moved up.  That’s why people like Matt Capps and Chris Perez have done little but squat on the john yet moved up the rankings.  Though I still managed to find a way to not move up Brian Fuentes.  The way we’re going there won’t be any $12 Salads by May.  Then what?  $8 Side Dishes?  Who needs roasted cauliflower with truffle oil?  Not me!  I’m happy with a baked potato.  Yes, sir!  Hmm… Maybe I shouldn’t write these right before lunch.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon (+1) (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
2. Mariano Rivera (+1) (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain)
3. Jonathan Broxton (+1) (George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

4. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (Ryota Igareshi, Jenrry Mejia, Eddie Kunz)
5. Heath Bell (+1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (John Grabow, Esmailin Caridad)
7. Joakim Soria (+1) (Juan Cruz, Roman Colon, Kyle Farnsworth)
8. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Brandon League)
10. Brian Wilson (+1) (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
11. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
12. Rafael Soriano (+2) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell)
13. Billy Wagner (+2) (Takashi Saito, Kris Medlen)
14. Ryan Franklin (+4) (Jason Motte, Josh Kinney)
15. Mike Gonzalez (+7) (Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen, Scot Shields)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Darren O’Day, Chris Ray, Neftali Feliz)
18. Octavio Dotel (+1) (Brendan Donnelly, Joel Hanrahan)
19. Leo Nunez (+1) (Dan Meyer, Brian Sanches)
20. Trevor Hoffman (+3) (Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins)
21. Andrew Bailey (-4) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Zimmerman in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Bobby Jenks (+3) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
23. Chad Qualls (+4) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
24. Matt Capps (+2) (Brian Bruney, Tyler Clippard, Mike MacDougal)
25. Jason Frasor (+5) (Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs)
26. Chris Perez (+1) (Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Kerry Wood)
27. Jon Rauch/Matt Guerrier (-26) Jose Mijares, Francisco Liriano)
28. Franklin Morales (-15) (Manny Corpas, Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street)
29. Ryan Madson (-4) (Danys Baez, Brad Lidge)
30. Matt Lindstrom/Brandon Lyon (-1) (Sammy Gervacio, Ed Wade’s Toupee)

2 Men Enter, 1 Man Leaves

March 18, 2010 By: Smokey Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft 27 Comments →

This is the conundrum of fantasy baseball that leads us to the battle for the final rotation spot.  These guys either have one of two options: drive around on a bus with the Savannah Sand Gnats, or float for awhile (swimming is an entirely different sport). These guys aren’t necessarily the sexiest group of fantasy options, but if your league is deep or shallow, streaming is streaming.  I do it a lot in limitless inning leagues.  It’s not cheating — it’s taking advantage of other owners who don’t do it.  Picking your “spot” starts is always hit or miss, best way to tell if you should stream is to read the betting line — I can’t make this stuff up.  People who stand to win/lose money know what is going on here.  So here we go:  the 5th starter battles for 2010 fantasy baseball at the midpoint of Spring Training:

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney
– The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake
– Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland
– Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

Closer Look

March 03, 2010 By: Grey Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft 120 Comments →

The murmurs of Heath Bell getting traded to another team by July are getting louder.  (BTW, I love the word murmurs.  I really wanted the survivors on Lost to call The Others, The Murmurs.  Wouldn’t that have been awesome?!  Okay, maybe me.)  Prepare for a dozen or so posts titled, “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” at some of our weak sister sites.  And by “weak sister,” I’m talking prison slang and I mean ESPN.  I moved Bell down one whole spot.  I’m not worried in March about someone who might get traded in July.  He will probably drop one or two spots each month until July.  If you get 23 saves, a 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 Ks in 37 1/3 innings pre-All-Star Break, you’ll be mad you drafted him?  Bee tee dubya, those were his 1st half numbers last year.  Then who knows where he goes.  Maybe Lidge and Madson finally give Manuel a coronary and Bell takes over the closing duties in Philly as Victorino player-manages.  Or maybe Bell goes somewhere else.  You get the picture; it’s still early.  Don’t overestimate-slash-overthink-slash-overrate… Just don’t “over” anything.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Francisco Rodriguez (+2) (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
6. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (-1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
10. David Aardsma (-1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Brad Lidge (+3) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
25. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
26. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
27. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
28. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (Jeremy Accardo, The Pigeon That Dave Winfield Killed’s Vengeful Grandson)