Fantasy Baseball Advice

A lot of starting pitchers have been traded by the A’s.  Some fare great (Haren), some have mixed results (Hudson), some collapse (Mulder).  But there has never been an ex-A’s starting pitcher that seems to miss the AL West as much as Chad Gaudin.  While he did get crushed @ LAA, his last 3 starts @SEA, home against SEA, and @TEX have netted 21 IP / 2-1 / 2.14 ERA / 0.76 WHIP / 28 Ks.  That’s a Peavian 12 K/9 IP with a K/BB ratio of 21:5.  We’ve had Gaudin on a couple of deep league teams since we love NL West pitchers and it’s been hard to recommend him because he’s been so damn wild.  But after these past three dominating starts (8+ Ks, 2 or less BBs), he’s a must pickup in any league format at this point.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Everth Cabrera – 3-for-8 this weekend, with one steal.  If you need steals, don’t wait until after the 3 steal game to grab him.  He may not be there.

Scott Hairston – 3-for-4 with a homer yesterday.  Okay, that’s the last Padres blurb.

Aaron Cook - Effectively hittable (8 IP, 9 H, 1 ER) and liftable (9 ground balls, 10 fly balls) against Oakland, he’s now won 5 in a row and given up just 1 ER in 4 of those games.  He’ll never be a fantasy ace so if you have 5 aces, don’t pick him up.  Otherwise, jump on him – especially if the matchup looks good.

Jose Valverde – Perhaps stunned that Russ Ortiz carried a 3-2 lead through 7 innings against a major league team, Valgreen’s blew the save with a 2-run HR to Brandon Inge.  You may have noticed LaTroy Hawkins earned the save on Saturday.  What does that add up to?  Eh, not much.  Valverde has a long leash and will be closer for the Astros unless he gets hurt, sucks it up big time, or gets traded.

Mark DeRosa – One of the most versatile players (2B, 3B, OF) is now playing for one of the most inventive managers (Tony LaRussa).  Plus, both their names refer to roses which seems romantic.  DeRosa’s expected to play most of his time at 3B but his first start saw him in LF.  For now, he’s batting 4th (right behind Pujols).  Wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 2nd, 5th, or 6th in upcoming games.  One thing that’s safe for now is DeRosa will get his 5-6 starts a week….as long as he doesn’t impersotweet Tony L.

Khalil Greene – He was hot a little over a week ago, but he’s now 0-for his last 14.  He’s the best choice to bat 2nd?

Pablo Sandoval – 3 HRs between Friday and Saturday.  Stomach virus on Sunday.  That virus was probably living for years in that stomach before Pablo felt it.

Carlos Carrasco - Word is that the Phil-Phil may start Car-Car on Thursday against Atlanta.  He came into 2009 as the Phillies top pitching prospect (ahead of JA Happ) but his 4.92 ERA in 86 AAA IP in 2009 is a clear sign this is a callup out of necessity.  If you dig into his AAA stats, though, things look a bit brighter.  About 1 K an inning.  A BB rate under 3 per 9 inning.  His FIP is only 3.50.  His strand rate of 61.7% is awfully something – awfully unlucky, awfully bad or awfully telling that he can’t pitch out of the stretch.  We’d recommend giving him a game or two to prove himself before starting him (we’re still hurting from Hochevar) but if you need Ks in the worst way, go for it.

Eric Bruntlett – 1-for-11 this weekend.  Rollins went oh-for-no-he-didn’t.

Jamie Moyer – 5 IP, 4 ER, but earned his 252nd win to pass Bob Gibson on the all-time list.  Let the discussion now begin about who was a better pitcher — Gibson or Moyer.

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 0 ER. Only four baserunners vs. the Sawx.  Now he’s going to be the Cy Young!  Actually, prolly not.  He’ll still have some rookie hiccups.  (I abandoned prolly for probably for a few months to see if I could be taken more seriously by established media personalities like George Will and Ken Burns.  Since I can’t spell Pulitzer without Googling it, I’m going back to prolly! I may even apostrophize, “It’s okay” as S’okay.  Stay tuned!)

Jonny Gomes – Had a good run on all our teams this week with two homers.  Now he’ll return to platooning and we’ll drop him.

Brandon Phillips – 3-for-5, 3 Runs, 3 RBIs and his 11th steal.  Taking the slow boat to 20/20.   S’okay, as long as he stays healthy, he’ll get there.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Hehe.  Asdrubal’s back.   Hehe.

Aaron Hill – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his total to 19.  Could get to 30.  No reason you have to think at any moment the indigestion’s coming on.

Mike MacDougal – Got his third save for the Nats and started selling iced mochas just like McDonald’s.  But he spells mocha with a K.

Josh Willingham – 3-for-4 yesterday and .389 in the last week. You can grab ‘ham while he’s hot, but if you have an erection for longer than 4 hours after doing so, you may want to seek a doctor’s advice.

Andrew McCutchen – Has 2 steals and 5 Runs in the last week.  S’not terrible, but schmohawk behind door number three can probably give you the same.  The Dread Pirate should give you something in a trade though, so I’d explore those options. (I might rethink “S’not.”)

David Price – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER. But at what price? 5 walks.

Andrew Miller – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Miller’s like a boba that clogs your straw.  Just pull the straw out and shoot that oversized boba into the garbage.   It’ll choke you out.

Alfonso Soriano – His forties haven’t been kind to him. Yesterday, 2-for-4, no Runs scored or RBIs or steals.  It’s bad when that’s a good day.

John Danks – 7 IP, 0 ER. He’s at 4.08 ERA on the year with a 1.28 WHIP.  That sounds about right.  I don’t think he suddenly becomes a number one or two, but prolly a solid number 3.

Ryan Sadowski – 6 IP, 0 ER. He was a 4 ERA pitcher in Triple A, isn’t an overwhelming strikeout guy and walks hitters.  Sadowski is the new blech.

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 2 ER.  More impressively, he only walked two and one of those was Pujols.  The Cards, with the pitcher batting, aren’t exactly Murderer’s Row, more like Ripping A Tag Off A Mattress Row, but it’s a step in the right direction for Liriano.

Adrian Beltre – If you missed the news over the weekend, he’s going to be out for 2 months with shoulder surgery being performed by, oddly enough, an Angels’ doctor.  You think the Angels would’ve offered to work on Ichiro.  Beltre’s droppable outside of deep AL-Only leagues.

Jose Lopez – 3-for-4 and stole his first base of the season.  As of late, he’s one of the hottest hitters and should not be on waivers in any league.

Chien-Ming Wang – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks for his first Win on the season.  “If this is a breakthrough, color me bored.” — Appropriate here, but it’s also a quote from Thomas Edison’s overdemanding mother.

Mariano Rivera - 500th career save @ Metco and 1st career RBI (bases loaded walk against K-Rod).  If I owned the Mets, I would do three things.  1) Get Michael Jackson’s old hyperbaric chamber for Jose Reyes’s hamstring, 2) Change financial advisors, and 3) Campaign MLB to spread out the embarrassment of playing the Yanks to once every 4 years.

John Maine – Rehab is suspended because there’s a pinched nerve in Maine’s shoulder.  I once suffered from a pinched finger from a Maine lobster.  Which finger?  The same one that’s getting prepared to click the mouse in shallow leagues where I own Maine….

I think I’m approximately six weeks late on this, but if you read Razzball daily (of course you do, you reader, you!) then you’ve read before some, if not all, of these predictions.  So what now? Read them again.  They won’t hurt you.  Plus now that I’ve put all of my ‘preseason’ predictions in one place, we can look back at this later in the year and laugh.  Oh, and we will laugh.  Who’s your NL MVP?  Soriano?  Oh, you do kid, Grey.  You do! Anyway, here’s my predictions for baseball’s post-season awards and whatnot:

AL Pennant Winner – Tampa Bay Rays.  I really didn’t want to pick the defending AL champions because that’s lame, and I made a resolution to be unlame this year.  Alas, I went through each AL team’s pitching staff and the Rays were the choice.

NL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Dodgers.  Their lineup wins the division with ease then in a playoff series their pitching can beat the Cubs and Mets.

World Series Champion – Los Angeles Dodgers.  I’ve never been to a World Series game and would like to go.  Thank you!

AL ROY – Travis Snider.  I wanted to call this guy Travis Lind.  Weird!

NL ROY – Dexter Fowler.  I think he’s a top 30 player by 2011.  Wave of the future… Wave of the future…

AL Cy Young – Josh Beckett.  The Sawx will give him a chance for 20 wins and he can do the rest.

NL Cy Young – Chad Billingsley.  You didn’t think I was going to pick Joel Pineiro, did you?

NL MVP – Alfonso Soriano.  I expect a huge year from Soriano but he needs to stay healthy for 130 games.  Hey, maybe all his bad injury karma will be absorbed by Milton Bradley.  God knows Bradley could stand for some karmic retribution.

AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera. Since the BBWAA picks MVPs partially on how well a team does, this is a longshot at best, unless Cabrera becomes the Tigers number three starter.  And number four starter.  And closer.

Now put your picks in the comments and we’ll look back on this in November and mock each other.

The only people that are heaped with more scorn than nerds at Adams College are fantasy pitchers who are drafted in the top 6 rounds only to severely disappoint.  It may not be fair to the pitchers but it definitely offers up some bargains come draft time for those that can see that they are champions and will keep on fighting ’til the end.  Aaron Harang and Erik Bedard are your Louis and Gilbert.  Granted Harang was facing the Pirates, but a 3 hit no walk shutout with 9 K’s has got to be a great sign for those that gambled on a comeback.  Erik Bedard – who has been great when healthy – tosses 8 1/3 shutout innings agains the A’s with 3 hits and a walk.  Assuming these two can stay healthy (no small challenge for Bedard or a pitcher on Dusty’s staff), their fantasy owners will be eating pie this year.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – To the DL with a sore right shoulder.  I warned people back in February not to make this guy your top starter, “As for Webb, I’m legitimately worried about him.  So much of his value is derived from good Win karma,” but obviously the Eight Ball didn’t even predict things would be this bad.  For those thinking it’s a good Buy opportunity because his owners are now discounting him.  Let’s drop some Liquid Paper on your brain and correct that.  Pitchers + arm, shoulder or elbow injuries = Don’t Want.

Kyle Lohse – 3-hit shutout.  Coming off a 15-6 / 3.78 ERA with a low K rate (only 119 out of 200), he seemed ripe for regression in 2009.  Go with Lohse when he’s on a roll and don’t be afraid to bench or cut bait after a bad start or two.

Milton Bradley – Left Sunday’s game with a leg injury.  In other news, ice is cold.

Tom Glavine – Left rehab start with sore shoulder.  I don’t think anyone was actually waiting on this guy, but, if you were, postdate your expectations.

Evan Longoria – 5th HR this week.  Orioles pitchers don’t hurt anyone’s numbers except Orioles pitchers, but that is still an impressive first week.  I liked Longoria at the end of the 2nd round and felt he wasn’t that far off from Wright.  Color me vindicated.

Dexter Fowler – Joining in on the mean violin, hit his 2nd HR this week.  If he can continue to pound his way into the lineup, we might be looking at the NL ROY.  As I said about my Cinnabon today, that’s some kind of delicious.

Tim Lincecum – It’s called a panic move.  What, Grey?  What is? Trading Lincecum for fifty cents on the dollar. You need to be patient.  Though getting hit by the Padres is not a good sign.  He’ll get his K’s, but hope you’re not banking on 18 Wins happening again.

Kevin Gregg – Making even his owners wish Piniella would go with Marmol so they can drop him.  Don’t.  Not yet.  When Piniella says no more, then you can drop him. Not until then.

Rafael Soriano – Recorded the save yesterday.  I have him in two leagues.  Mike Gonzalez is iffy at best and usually injured at worst.  Soriano’s not much better, but he’ll vulture some saves.

Alfonso Soriano – Another HR, bringing his tally to 4.  I’m marking Soriano down as my NL MVP in my head.  Injuries always seem to befall him, but if he runs a little less and stays healthy he can have a monster year.  As I projected in my top 20 overall post — 110/32/85/.275/15 are crazysexysolid numbers for him.

Huston Street – Loses the game for the Rockies.  The Rockies really need Street to be their closer so they can trade him for a worthwhile piece before the trading deadline to make up for trading Holliday for Nadir Bupkus.

Brandon Inge – Another HR.  As Rudy told you the other night, Inge can help while hot.  No reason not to drop some lesser catchers for him — Navarro, AJ, Skinny Molina…

Chase Headley – He sounds like a porn star, but may actually prove to be a fantasy star this year as well.  HRs in two straight games are a good sign.  His playing time is all but guaranteed.  We’ve seen this kind of thing before – Kouz in 2007 – so we’re still a bit skeptical.  Like any hitter with promise, grab him off FA and see how he does for a week or two.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 4 Hits, 7 Ks.  Another quality start from Tally.  When I pegged him a fantasy sleeper, this is what I expected.  For real for real.

Randy Wolf – Randy like the Wolf!  Randy like the Wolf!  7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Real tough to start him against Haren last night, but if you did you reaped some rewards.  If you continue to trot Wolf out against 2/3 of his NL opponents, you’ll reap more.

Trevor Cahill – Two solid starts for the 21 year old Athletic who hadn’t made a start past AA prior to this year.  His long-term future looks bright but 3 Ks and 8 BBs in 12 IP is a harbinger for a stormy short-term future.

Delmon Young – HR yesterday.  Just think, he didn’t hit his first home run last year until June 7th.  I know, not super reassuring, but it’s a positive.

Josh Johnson – Outdueled Johan Santana with a 1-run, 7K complete game.  We marked him as a prime comeback candidate after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery.  If he keeps pitching like this, people will stop confusing him with the Casey kid from Dawson’s Creek.

David Aardsma – Nabbed his 2nd save already.  Not bad for someone who isn’t even the closer.  He’s ruining the joke that you can’t spell Aardsma without Triple-A.  That said, Morrow should have a fairly long leash so don’t expect too many more from Aardsma (an aardvark that’s short of breath?)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Cubs Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Hire Jim Essian.

1) Give me an over under on games played for Alfonso Soriano.  And are you taking the over or under?

In the regular season, 140.5, and I’ll take the over.  In the postseason, 3.5, and I’ll take the under.

2) Who’s the Cubs closer?  (If you say Marmol, please explain why the Cubs got Gregg.)

Carlos Marmol.  The Cubs only got Kevin Gregg so Sean Marshall wouldn’t be the ugliest pitcher on the staff any more.  This is, of course, assuming that Michael Wuertz is in AAA this year.

3) George Steinbrenner once called Dave Winfield, “Mr. May.”  Is it fair to call Derrek Lee, “Mr. April?”  Where has his power gone?

“Mr. April” is unfair, but “Mr. June” is accurate.  I’m going to go ahead and continue blaming Jim Hendry for Lee’s loss of power.  If Hendry had pulled the trigger and signed Rafael Furcal prior to the 2006 season, Furcal would have never drunkenly staggered into Lee’s wrist, breaking it and sapping Lee of all his power.  Plus, the Sports Corner would have never gone out of business if Furcal lived in Chicago.  If the collision with Furcal isn’t the sole cause of the drop in power, I expect the phantom slap fight Lee had with Chris Young finished the job of neutering Lee.  It’s not easy to put much of a charge into a ball when you’re hoping one of your teammates will get between it and you before you swing.

4) Geovany Soto’s projections from Bill James 71/23/89/.293 from CHONE 56/17/73/.279. Which do you think is more accurate?

Who the hell does Chone Figgins think he is?  A mathematician?  My KERMIT projections are more accurate than both.  I assume those numbers are Runs/Home Runs/RBIs/BAC after the Cubs win the World Series, so I’ll go with 100/30/105/.342  Those numbers assume that the Cubs sign Paul Bako, forcing Lou Piniella to play Soto in 160 games.

5) The guy from Saw becomes a baseball fan and makes you choose between a brain operation that makes you no longer enjoy the Cubs and sausage sanwiches or he’ll remove a testicle and the Cubs win the World Series.  Which operation do you choose?

Trick question.  The guy from Saw is dead.  OR IS HE?  Those movies suck.  A brain operation that takes away the number one source of stress in my life and lowers my cholesterol sounds good, but brain surgery is a lot more dangerous than testicle surgery.  Plus, as Felix Pie knows, sometimes the guys are way more trouble than they’re worth.  Take the ball from me, just like Lou should have done to Ryan Dempster after the fourth inning of Game One.

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, finishing up the infield for our 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our attention to the top 20 outfielders.  As mentioned the other day, the top twenty outfielders will need to go to top 40 because there’s so many of them.  If you want, check out our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Or a list of all the players with multiple position eligibility.  This top 20 for 2009 list will be broken up into tiers, as the other top twenty lists have been.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1.  Grady Sizemore – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Grady Sizemore’s 2009 projections.

2.  Ryan Braun – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Ryan Braun’s 2009 projections.

3.  Carlos Beltran – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Carlos Beltran’s 2009 projections.

4.  Carlos Lee – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Carlos Lee’s 2009 projections.

5.  Matt Holliday – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Matt Holliday’s 2009 projections.

6.  Josh Hamilton – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Josh Hamilton’s 2009 projections.

7.  Alfonso Soriano – I came thisclose to putting Soriano in the top twenty overall.  I notice there’s a lot of, “What have you done for me lately?” with fantasy baseball rankings.  Hamilton’s a top ten player now, Manny’s a top twenty player now, Jessica Shaw says Carlos Lee is so five minutes ago, etc.  My general feelings on this, “What have you done for me lately?” mentality will have to wait for another post, but let me say this, Soriano just missed going 30/20 in 2008.  That’s a solid year, in what was an off year.  Soriano seems to be getting a bit more injury prone with age and he may be a Latin 32, so that kept him out of the top 20, but he didn’t miss by much.  2009 Projections:  110/32/85/.275/15

8.  Carlos Quentin – This is the 3rd tier of outfielders.  This tier goes from Quentin to Ichiro.  I call this tier, “The last guys I’d want to be calling my first outfielder.”  In 2010, you’ll be looking at rankings and Carlos Quentin will be higher than he is now, because CQ is a riser.  (CQ is also a God-awful Coppola-offspring movie.  Could someone give me a running tally of how many dreadful movies Coppola’s nepotism has made us sit through?  I loved Rushmore, but Jason Schwartzman sucks donkey balls.)   2009 Projections:  105/35/110/.275/7

9.  B.J. Upton – I’m not over ranking Upton just because I watched him hit some home runs in the playoffs.  Let’s be real, I’m looking at people who can actually outproduce where they’re being drafted and Upton is one that can shoot to the 1st round in 2010.  That’s right; I’m not, um, down on B.J.  2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35

10. Carl Crawford – Even though it feels like Crawford has been around forever, he’s only going to be 27 for the better part of 2009 (turning 28 in August.  Oh, that reminds me, Outliers, the new Malcolm Gladwell book is solid.  I’m reminded because in Outliers Gladwell talks about how a majority of Major League Baseball players are born from August to October because of the cutoff date for Little League baseball.  I usually don’t recommend books because, frankly, you people probably don’t give a flying eff in the ear what books I’m reading.).  Crawford’s legs are still capable of 50 steals.  His power may never go to the next level, but 15 home runs is doable.  So put 2008 out of your mind, you’re not getting it back or that twelve dollars you spent on your “super” haircut.  2009 Projections:  85/15/80/.300/45

11. Matt Kemp – I not only bought into the Matt Kemp hype, I rolled it up in decorative sugar and began to sell it at a local bake sale.  You want someone in the fourth round in 2009 that could be a first or second rounder in 2010?  Matt Kemp’s your man, man.  He’s the future, kids.  (Speaking of future, I accidentally wrote 2099 the other day instead of 2009 and I started thinking how someone should cover Prince’s 1999 song in 2099.  I think it would do well with Generation X².   Also, I Googled to see if anyone had come up with this idea yet and no one had.  So, future boy that’s reading this in 2099 and who decided they were going to cover 1999, this is my idea and I want you to make note of it in your 2099 liner notes.  Or I will haunt you.)  2009 Projections:   95/24/80/.295/30

12.  Ichiro Suzuki – I’m not drafting Ichiro because he’s always overrated and I don’t believe in drafting outfielders this early who won’t get to double digits in home runs.  See Victorino for a lower budget Suzuki.  2009 Projections:  110/7/50/.315/35

13. Alex Rios – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from Rios to the end of the list and picks up again on the top 40 outfielders list.  I call this tier, “I want these guys on my team, but they’re not a 1st outfielder.”  Alexis Rios, potential 30/30 hitter, disappointed me so badly in 2008 that he had to transform into Alex Rios, “Just Take 20/20 And Be Happy” hitter.  I’m fine with 20/20.  I really am.  Don’t I seem fine?  Okay, moving on.  2009 Projections:  85/25/90/.295/20

14.   Nick Markakis – I have love for Markakis.  Remember I was the one who coined the phrase, “I am Sparkakis,” which is sweeping a 7 person section of the eastern tip of Calvert County, Maryland.  His walks went up in 2008, which a solid sign that he’s becoming a better hitter and the Orioles are a terrible lineup that rewards people for not pitching to Markakis.  His RBIs should bounce back a bit in 2009, but his power doesn’t seem like it’s going in the right direction, which is to say up.  At least not as high as I want it.  2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10

15. Shane Victorino – Hello, and a big hearfelt welcome to those of you who just came from reading Ichiro’s 2009 Projections.  Now, try and see the difference in Victorino and Ichiro. Go ahead, I’ll wait.  Some average in Ichiro’s favor and some power in Victorino’s favor.  Maybe I’ve gone completely cracked for Victorino, but if you can get Rollins-type numbers in the outfielder it’s worth something to ya, isn’t it?  Okay, maybe I just heart Victorino.  2009 Projections:  100/15/60/.285/35

16. Jacoby Ellsbury -  I feel like Jacoby Ellsbury might be a healthier, but riskier Victorino.  re: your thoughts — Yes, it is all about Victorino.   2009 Projections:  110/10/60/.285/40

17. Jason Bay -  This guy killed me in 2007.  Then he ended up returning to past glory in 2008 and making me look bad again because I said he couldn’t do it.  At this point, I’m going to assume whatever I say about Bay will come true in its exact inverse.  So Bay’s going 10/30 and will bat .082.  2009 Projections:  100/32/110/.280/10

18. Nate McLouth -  McLouth’s minor league numbers look like McCrap, but he’s found some power in the majors and it doesn’t seem like it’s going away.  He’s also not going to turn into a 40/40 hitter.  If you heard an “ouch” last year, that was McLouth bumping his head on his ceiling.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22

19. Curtis Granderson – Here’s a guy I didn’t like at all going into 2008 and ended up proving me right.  I think he returns more value in 2009, which means he’ll be a worthwhile 2nd outfielder, then he’ll be overrated going into 2010.  Do you see a pattern?  2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17

20. Manny Ramirez – Overpaid free agents for $100 (million), Alex.  The answer is, “To make a point.”   “What is the reason Manny was placed 20th?”  Manny went from an average draft pick of 42nd overall in 2008 to 20th overall in 2009.  Not to get all Spanish on you, but, “¿Porque?  ¿Manny juega en el fountain del chicos o Manny juega por dinero?  ¡Que rhetorico!”  2009 Projections:  85/30/90/.300