Fantasy Baseball Advice

Major league closers are probably in the highest stress position on their team. So I guess it’s only appropriate that they cause us the most agita. I’ve already explained that I won’t draft any closers in the first tier. Rudy Gamble broke down why he does grab a closer in the first tier. Anyway, what are these tiers and who are in them? Here’s all the closers and their setup men going into the 2008 season. Side note, closers need guile, charisma and whole lot of I-just-don’t-give-a-fark, not unlike some of the characters that were portrayed on The Wire, a show that I’m sadder to see end than any in past memory. So in honor of the series finale of The Wire, I’ve named the tiers after some of The Wire’s more memorable characters.

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)

What you say, you need fantasy baseball sleepers for 2008? You’re looking to get some value at your fantasy draft. Yeah, you and every other schmohawk who’s reading this. Luckily, there’s enough crap out there to distract enough people. So here’s a quick breakdown of 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers for every position. If you want their projections, check the “Players by Position” dropdown on the left side or download Rudy Gamble’s 2008 Player Rater, it’s free, viral and virus-free as far as I can tell. BTW, we’ve covered some of these dudes in past sleeper articles here, here , here and finally here. This list is going to be quick and to the point (unlike this intro).

CATCHERS

Ramon Hernandez – He’s back and his parents didn’t feel the need to spell his first name backwards, so there’s that. (Retire, Nomar, and go prepare a Cobb Salad for Mia.)

Carlos Ruiz – Geovany Soto’s now being touted like he’s the coming Messiah and J.R. Towles might be okay, but you really shouldn’t be going caca-cuckoo for any rookie catchers. You know where your misplaced love should be focused? Ruiz. He could put up Posada numbers with a handful of steals to boot. You’re welcome.

FIRST BASEMEN

Conor Jackson – He’s looking at everyday duty without Tony Clark looming. And, weighing in at 540 lbs. and stepping over the top rope at seven feet-four inches, Tony Clark looms. Conor stops looking over his shoulder and does something. C.J.’s still young, btw.

Casey Kotchman – If I say one more time that Magic recovered from AIDS quicker than Casey recovered from mono, I’m going to hell. Kotchman’s back, ya’ll.

SECOND BASEMEN

Alberto Callaspo — Why won’t Grudzielanek retire? I blame the Royals.

Dustin Pedroia – A Red Sox under the radar after winning ROY? Um, kinda. He’s being undervalued. Whatevs, grab him.

Robinson Cano – A Yankee without farkin’ bees swarming around him? Yeah, sorta. He’s the homer/RBI cheese to your middle infielders’ steal macaronis.

SHORTSTOPS

Yunel Escobar — Here’s what I said months ago, “His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that.” Damn, I got wisdom.

Miguel Tejada – Okay, not exactly a sleeper in the conventional sense, but he’s not done. He ripped up DR’s winter ball in the offseason and he’s playing with something to prove (that he’s urinating clean).

THIRD BASEMEN

Alex Gordon – Disregard last season and give him another shot; in ’09, he’s not going to be cheap.

Edwin Encarncion  – I never thought I’d say this, but I actually like Edwin Encarncion a lot this year. I got hate in my heart for him because he doesn’t run out routine popups and Dusty may get sick of that shizz, but here’s to Edwin hustling this year.

OUTFIELDERS

Matt Diaz – So what he’s got a rep for killing only lefties, you can’t make roster moves? Slot him in against lefties. FYhoo, I think he hits both sides this year.

Luke Scott – Anyone with the first name Luke can play baseball. Just not in the majors (Luke Appalling, excluded). I hesitated putting Scott on this list, but he gets a shot this year. Worth a late round flier to take a gamble. (Full disclosure: I try to only give advice I would follow, and I won’t draft Luke in any league, so, well, now you know.)

Michael Bourn – I’ve covered Bourn so much, he’s moving into mancrush territory.

Carlos Quentin – I don’t even know if he has a job. Let’s hope he does, because last year wasn’t indicative of his talent.

Shane Victorino – I’ve  touted Victorino to the point where I’m not even sure he’s a sleeper anymore. Anyway, I would/will draft Victorino as my 3rd outfielder. You have to have Victorino on your team this year. I may start a running piece on my love for The Flying Hawaiian. I got lots of love to give.

STARTERS

Adam Wainwright – Look at his splits from last year. Took him three months to recover from that closer experiment and he was on point after the All-Star break. (He burned me in the 1st half of last year too, you gotta give him another chance.)

Manny Parra – You want this year’s Yovani? Parra will make everyone’s list next year. You get him this year, especially in keepers.

Zach Greinke –  If  he takes his mental health pills every day, he could be a force this year. Could the Royals be this year Brewers? Perhaps, Ms. Cleo.

CLOSERS

Carlos Marmol – He’s dealing and the Cubs (specifically Lou) want to win.

Joey Devine – I’m not convinced Devine won’t lay a turd baby at any moment, but Huston’s either moving on or getting injured.

Jeremy Accardo – If BJ’s hurting at any point in Spring Training, Accardo’s not a sleeper. You draft him like he’s your number two closer.

Aaron Heilman — Sorry, Mets fans, Wagner got old last year. Heilman gets at least fifteen saves this year. Act accordingly.

Al Reyes – Why doesn’t someone book a cruise for Grudzielanek and Percival? I blame the Rays.

Last name that I want to highlight:

Scott Baker – I haven’t seen much buzz about this dude, so I figured I’d drop him in at the end. I have nothing to say, except in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. Read those numbers one more time. Now he’s not ringing up 200 Ks this year, but that strikeout to walk ratio is a magical first step to finding value where others may not see it.

Matthew Berry at ESPN is on a ‘fantasy jihad’ to make sure you don’t pay for saves come draft day. No word on whether resisting this temptation will be paid off with 72 virgins.

While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.

There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.

Let’s get on with the debunking…

Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.

Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.

Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).

Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8

This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).

Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.

Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.

Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.

C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs

Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).

Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.

Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.

Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.

Yes, I know. BJ Ryan in 2007.

But here’s my top 10 closers going into 2007 and their eventual finish amongst closers in our 2007 Player Rater. and ESPN Player Rater:

1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)

So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.

But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:

Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th

So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.

From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.

While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.

Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).

Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.

“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…

Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):

ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9

The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).

For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:

(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)

So here’s my advice….

Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.

The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.

I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.

If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it - this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.

But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)

I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).

The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.

We’ve gone over a few lists of sleepers. Gave you some draft lists. Even chucked a player rater your way. This here? This is a sleeper closer list. You won’t find Mariano Rivera on this list, cause he’s not a potential closer. He is a closer. Nathan? Nope. George Sherrill? Yeah, he’ll be here. Got it? Okay, let’s look at a few teams and some potential closers for 2008.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Troy Percival

Al Reyes – Why did they trade for Percival? A guy who was retired this time last year compared to a guy who was their closer last year. It’s really surprising the Devil Rays are perennial losers; they make such astute baseball moves.

Kansas City Royals – Joakim Soria

Yasuhiko Yabuta – His numbers in Japan were good for Japan, but not great (2.73/1.18). Soria struggled at times to understand that strikeouts are good and walks not good. Tomko has been rumored to be in line if Soria fails, but I didn’t put his name down because Tomko will never be a successful closer and he shouldn’t be drafted in any leagues including 16-team AL-only leagues.

Baltimore Orioles – An in-house mess

Chad Bradford – The Orioles are going into Spring Training with a closer buffet of crap, unless they trade for someone. Bradford is the best arm but all signs seem to want to keep him in the seventh or eighth. There’s a chance the next guy might be their savior (get it?).

George Sherrill – The trade of Bedard to send Adam Jones and Sherrill seems just about complete with Bedard going for a physical as I type this. So Sherrill gets traded and take over immediately as the Orioles closer. Last year his ERA/WHIP was 2.36/.99. He carries a great strand rate, as well. By draft time, he may not even be much of a sleeper anymore. Shoot, by next week.

Florida Marlins – Kevin Gregg

Taylor Tankersley – Do you think Kevin Gregg has another good season in him? The Tank hasn’t shown the promise yet in the majors and he’s a lefty. Maybe he never becomes the closer of the future for the Marlins, then again he’s only 24.

Texas Rangers – C.J. Wilson

Eddie Guardado – The Rangers gave Wilson the role last year and then took it from him as he succeeded. This proves one thing; they don’t like him in the role. By June of ‘08, Everyday Eddie could be simultaneously the worst closer in the majors and have a secure job. I’d run from this, but if you need saves you gotta do it. New math, Guardado + Arlington = Mylanta

New York Mets – Billy Wagner

Aaron Heilman – Wagner made a total meltdown (along with the team) last September. It probably was nothing, but he complained of back pain and he’s going to be 36 this year. I will be drafting Heilman on at least one team this year because the Mets will have late inning comebacks wins this year. Saves for Heilman? Possibly.

There will be more potential closers to come.

A Rays fansite (Now, quiet, they have a few fans. (And, sorry to do a parenthesis inside a parenthesis, but I just wanted to point out I was gonna do that super-snarky thing when a blogger crosses out a word, but you can still read it, but I don’t know how to do strike-throughs. Alas…)) talks about how BROKEN LINKTroy Percival will allow Al Reyes to pitch the 8th inning.(Think this blog threw in the towel. Can’t understand why a Rays fan would do that.) Which is completely true (not that someone wrote that, but that it appears Percy will be the closer), but my question is why. As in, why don’t the Rays want to compete? Reyes was perfectly fine last year. Sure, he wore out as the season progressed, but don’t the Rays have a few more, ahem, fish to fry than signing a closer that retired already? First, they trade away Delmon Young, who could be feasting on major league pitching by as soon as this year, for Matt Garza. Yes, good pitching beats good hitting. We see it every All-Star game and every October. Yes, the Rays’ staff needs help, but Delmon looked like the real deal. Garza, I have my questions about. They could have gotten more. Second, they pick a closer off a scrap heap, to replace the other scrap-heaper. Unbelievable. I think the Rays are trying to pull a Chapter 11 deal like the Marlins. What is with Florida teams?

Over at a Sawx site, they discuss what Manny being Manny might be this year. Supposedly, Gammons has word that Manny’s hitting the weights. I say, Manny’s having Big Papi explain to him how Netflix works, but that’s me. I stand by what I wrote last month about Manny in 2008, but take a gander at what someone else thought.

Over at a Mets site, they talk about giving Pelfrey the ball every fifth day. I completely agree. He showed real promise in September. Not to mention, as the Mets rotation is starting to look, he might be the number two man. Santana for Reyes? Nah, but they better get Santana for someone(s).