Fantasy Baseball Advice

Since I don’t draft starters early, the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball have a lot of names that I would draft.  Will I try for a starter from the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings?  Yeah, definitely, but things don’t always work out the way you envision.  To anchor my staff, I could conceivably have two starters from these top 40 starters and, as you’ll see, I don’t even like all 20 of these starters.   All the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found there.  Also, as with other rankings, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

21. Wandy Rodriguez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Oswalt.  I call this tier, “I’m on board.”  Other than a slightly high percentage of men left on base, Wandy’s 2009 looks repeatable.  So here’s what he did in 2009:  3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 193 Ks in 205 2/3 innings.  The Wandwagon rides again!  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

22. Chad Billingsley – Since Billingsley’s 2009 was so opposite of everything I expected, I’m going to speak in the inverse for him.  Last year, Bills had one of those dream seasons.  He came to camp in great shape.  Obviously cutting back on Ring Dings went a long way, but the key was his ice skating regimen.  As he stayed healthy all year, he dominated from start to finish.  K-rate crept up, walks went down and homers?  He didn’t give any up.  In 2010, the negation of the negation.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

23. Matt Garza – Not crazy about the AL East.  It’s inevitable that you bench Garza vs. the Yankees or Sox when he pitches well and you start him when he gets hit.  You can set your watch to it.  Still Garza makes the pain of match ups bearable.  Last year, he increased his 2008 K-rate from 6.24 to 8.38.  Looking at his 9+ K/9 minor league league rate makes me think Garza, at the age of 25, finally found himself in the majors.  He should repeat last year’s numbers or take a step forward.  Here’s to forward movement… 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200

24. Jered Weaver – What you see is what you get with Weaver.  An above average pitcher, but nowhere near the stud he looked like when he was first called up.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180

25. Scott Baker – Baker came out of gates with a sore shoulder that sidelined him for one official start in April.  Then he went on a two month string of terrible starts that made his owners wish he went on the 60-day DL.  His post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28, his ERA in 2008 was 3.45.  I believe those numbers vs. the ones in the 1st half of 2009.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170

26. David Price – Here’s a detailed David Price fantasy breakdown.  2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155

27. Ryan Dempster – Dempster was so downright awful as a closer that it took me two years before I was willing to believe he’s a mid-3 ERA starter.  And even now I feel the same way I felt with Cliff Lee in the top 20 starters.  I just know when I endorse Dempster, he’s going to employ his parachute as he watches me crash to the ground.  2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170

28. Roy Oswalt – The good news for 2009 is his ERA was higher than it should’ve been for how he pitched.  The bad news is it shouldn’t have been that much lower.  The days of him being an ace are way behind him, but as a quality number two to three man on your staff you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150

29. Tommy Hanson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Scherzer.  I call this tier, “Guys I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely thrilled about avoiding.”  Hanson’s innings bump was just too much for my high blood pressure.  I don’t think he’s going to be terrible this year.  I picture he’ll have a year similar to Billingsley’s 2009.  A few solid months and a few mediocre months, leading to an overall 3.75 ERA.  There’s way too many starters to choose from for me to buy into a guy I’m a little weary of.  Even if I’m right and he’s not good in 2010, he will be fine in 2011.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175

30. Javier Vazquez – As I wrote when he was traded, I originally had Vazquez ranked in the top 20 starters.  For s’s and g’s, here’s what I wrote when I had him ranked in the top 20. “For all starters in the major leagues, he had the lowest percentage of contact made on all pitches at 73.3%.  (For reference, Lincecum had 75%.)  For contact made from strikes, Vazquez ranked fourth.  When hitters aren’t making contact, you’re doing something well.  When you do that and throw as many strikes as Vazquez (238:44 K:BB), you’re doing something really³ well.”  Here’s what I wrote after he was traded.  2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200

31. Max Scherzer – His ranking is sorta like my ranking of Gallardo.  If I’m wrong, then I’m missing out on a guy that I could regret not owning because of all of his Ks.  Alas, I’m avoiding him because of his innings jump from ‘08 to ‘09 and his move to the Tigers won’t help his value.  It’s a termite-infested limb I’m out on avoiding him, but here I am.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165

32. Matt Cain – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Burnett.  I call this tier, “They will regress, but still ownable. Plus, A.J. Burnett.”  2007 is in Cain’s skill set.  2009 is not.  Or I should say it’s not without a lot of luck.  For all major league starters outside of Happ (and we’ll get to him in the top 60), Cain left the most men on base.  He also had a lower BABIP than Happ, if only by percentage points.  I say 2007 is in his skill set because that year he had a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 163 Ks.  That’s ownable, just not a 2.89 ERA.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165

33. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATED:  Jar-Jar moved to the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.

34. A.J. Burnett – Took two years of 30+ starts for me to accept Burnett as reliable. …Okay, I still don’t fully trust him, but it’s hard to find a 200 strikeout pitcher this late in the game.  Would I team Burnett with an upside two or three starter, like, say, Price?  No, I wouldn’t.  But I could see teaming him with an Oswalt-type.  Which gives me an idea, maybe I’ll do a post about pairings.  Not like what wine goes with branzino.  Like which starter goes with which starter.  2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200

35. James Shields – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Zambrano.  I call this tier, “Veterans that I’m done with.”  I just can’t take Shields’s shizz anymore.  Pitches well vs. the tough teams, gets his stank handed to him by the Royals, can’t pitch in away games… You’ve beaten me, Shields.  You win.  2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160

36. John Lackey – When he signed with Bahston, I went over Lackey for 2010 fantasy.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130

37. Brandon Webb – Hey, he’s all better!  That’s nice, I’m not owning him.  Pitching is already risky.  Not worth further risk.  2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165

38. Carlos Zambrano – Big Z is done-zo.  The Chicago chapter of the World Health Organization’s Freedom of Accuracy and Truth symposium should counsel children on what happens when you abuse an out of shape pitcher’s arm for five years.  In elementary school classrooms, posters can be hung of Carlos Zambrano, brought to you by WHO’s F.A.T.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140

39. Kevin Slowey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 60 starters post.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  There’s a good chance I’m going to own at least one of these guys on all of my teams.  Slowey’s a strikeout pitcher that doesn’t walk anyone.  You shouldn’t need much else to get excited.  (BTW, everyone in this tier’s projections are optimistic, but whatevs.  You’ll afford me my dreams, right?)  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165

40. Johnny Cueto – The 2nd half ERA of 5.81 was dreadful.  He had a two month ERA (July and August) of 8.18.  Was not a good time to be a Cueto owner.  His FIP was 4.69 on the year.  So what am I seeing in this schmohawk?  He suffered from a sore hip, which threw his mechanics out of control in the middle of the season.  In the minors, Cueto was a strikeout pitcher with solid control.  Here’s to him finding his happy place in the majors.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160

How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010.  She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums).  We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

Nyjer Morgan was back in the lineup to steal two bases in the first inning, then he left with a broken hand.  Bunt, go feet first and get back in there!  One of my ‘pert teams was pulling too far away in power, so last week I made a trade for steals and saves.  Two categories I usually just play the waiver wire for, but in a 16 team league, it’s slim pickins.  I traded Prince Fielder for Heath Bell and Nyjer Morgan.  Stab me in my eye!  Shove hot coals in my pants!  Hot poker my heart!  I still won’t miss Prince, but Nyjer’s broken hand… Well, I’d like to write on Nyjer’s cast, “Amputate,” as you should be doing with him on your teams.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Hudson – He’ll be returning on Monday to face the Marlins.  The good news, he gets a decent 2 start week next week.  The bad news, he wasn’t exactly lights out in rehab.  The moderate news, he’s worth a flier in 12 team leagues where you need an extra starter.  Just don’t expect him to be anything more than 5 IP, 3 ER.

Ian Kinsler – 2 HRs.  Post-All-Star Break, he’s batting .222 with 8 homers and 6 steals.  It’s going to be hard to justify a 2nd round pick next year for Kinsler with his propensity for bescumbering your fantasy baseball team in the second half of the season.

Chris Davis - HR yesterday.  IDK. W00t? Or BFD U POS?  The preceding was brought to you by your 14-year-old nephew’s texting.

A.J. Burnett – 6 IP, 3 ER, 12 Ks.  12 Ks courtesy of the league’s worst (best?) team for Ks, the Rangers.  After struggling for a few years with injuries, Burnett’s putting together another 30 start season (barring my jinxing right here).  Looking like a solid bet for 175 Ks and a 4.00 ERA next year.  That’s nothing to sneeze at, unless you’re allergic to that sorta thing.

Anibal Sanchez – 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the Mets.  I tried to push people away from Anibal because of his wont to tie his owners to the WHIPping post.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  I can already see people drafting him next year in mixed leagues and then mid-April being bored with him.  It’s the trouble with 12/12 outfielders.  They look okay on draft day, but when they average 2 homers and 2 steals a month they get real yawnstipating.

Dave Bush – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Bush has a machine head.  But it’s not better than the rest.

Randy Wells – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners.  To make matters worse, the Cubs should start watching his innings.

Carlos Gonzalez – Was in the lineup, but it was too soon back in the yard and he hurt his knife wound.

Adam LaRoche – HR yesterday.  8 homers and batting .385 in August.  Must be after the All-Star Break.

Andy Marte – HR yesterday.  Deep league alert!  Has an eight game hitting streak with two homers and batting over .400.

Andrew McCutchen – HR yesterday.  Now has 9 homers and 15 steals.  Unbelievably, I’m starting to get excited about a Pirate for next year.  Not just any Pirate, but The Dread Pirate.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones has not only continued to be productive (though admittedly less so than when he was first called up).  He hit his 15th homer yesterday and also has 8 steals.  For under 200 at-bats, that’s tremendous.  I have my doubts about him doing it over a full season.

Junichi Tazawa – 4 IP, 9 ER.  This is the reason I tried to steer people away from Tazawa.  I mean, he has a near 7 ERA on the year and 8 walks to 12 Ks.  Honestly, if it was for the Sons of Sam Horn hype machine, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.  Next year, we’ll reevaluate.

Alex Gonzalez – Has now hit homers in back-to-back games.  He’s a terrible hitter.  Make no mistake.  But hitters hit them in bunches, so he might have some short term value for MI pop.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Left the game with an ankle sprain.  He’s day-to-a-few-days.

Brandon Allen – Hit his first major league homer yesterday.  He’ll be discussed more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can’t wait.  No, you can’t!

Matt Holliday – HR yesterday.  If he stays in the NL, it’ll be interesting to see if everyone drafts him next year like the first half of the year was a blip on the radar because of his Oakcation.  The only problem with that, he still only hit 25 homers his last full year in Coors.  Then again, maybe the Mets will get him, then no one will think his power will boon.

Albert Pujols – It’s almost like he owns himself in fantasy baseball.  He goes 0-for-2, but steals a base just to add some value.  This actually wouldn’t be a bad idea.  Part of everyone’s salary goes into a fantasy baseball pool.  The only caveat is they must draft themselves.  Hmm… But maybe that’s gambling.  Nevertheless, I love Pujols.  Well, that sounded wrong.

Yesterday, I went over some 2nd half hitters.  The day before I went over the top 100 for fantasy baseball in the 2nd half.  Today, it’s time for everyone’s favorite 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers.  Or maybe these won’t be your favorite pitchers.  These are decisions you have to make on your own.  I can walk you to the fantasy baseball water.  I cannot drink it for you.  Similarly to hitters, players get in grooves or slumps.  So if a pitcher has been terrible for the last month, but showed flashes in the 2nd half of last year, he’s worth considering, but he’s not suddenly going to be great, i.e., recent history should be weighed.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers for 2009:

CC Sabathia – 1.56 ERA in 2008’s 2nd half to lead the league for pitchers over 60 innings.  He was ranked 7th for 2nd half ERA in 2007 with a 2.76.  Though I’m not totally convinced that we won’t be looking back at 2009 and wondering why CC was a 3.75 ERA pitcher rather than a 2.75 one.  Though, Part II:  The Return of Though, he does have a 3.67 career ERA, not what we saw last year in Milwaukee.  Though, Part III: Though Lives, he is usually better in the 2nd half.  Though, Part IV:  Though Part Three Confused Me.  Though, Part V:  Why Do They Keep Making Thoughs?

A.J. Burnett – 2.86/1.18 with just over a 10 K/9 in the second half last year.  In 2007, his ERA was more than a full run lower post-All-Star break.  In June of this year, 2.10 ERA.  In July — 2.70.  He might win 10 games and put up insane numbers after the break this year if he stays healthy.  It’s fun to be giddy about Burnett when I haven’t liked him for years.  I’m like a schoolgirl who just got a new Hello Kitty waffle iron.  Let’s make Kitty waffles!

Jorge de la Rosa – We interrupt the Yankees portion of this program to bring you a Rockies pitcher.  There goes my bounce rate!  Last year, dlR’s 1st half was 7.26 ERA vs. a 2nd half 3.08 ERA.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Last week’s Buy/Sell combed over Ubaldo.

Roy Oswalt – Everyone’s been telling you how Oswalt is a 2nd half pitcher.  I won’t belabor it; he has been better in the 2nd half for the last three years.

Scott Kazmir – Second best ERA in the 2nd half in 2007.  I know what you’re thinking.  I had the 2nd best list of fantasy baseball pitchers for the 2nd half until I put Kazmir on the list.  Fair enough.  I’m not convinced Kazmir will fix everything that ails him in the 2nd half, but since returning he has a 15:4 K:BB rate, which is a whole lot better than where it was before he went to the minors.

Francisco Liriano -  Wait, are these guys to ignore or own?  I’m so confused right now. Random Italicized Voice, I can’t just sit here and name all the top starters from my top 100.  Do you remember what Liriano did to sucker you into drafting him this year?  He was lights out last August and put together a 2.74 ERA in the 2nd half and nearly a strikeout an inning.

Bronson Arroyo – I know, you’d prefer to listen to him cover Sarah McLachlan than own him, but pre-All-Star Break ERA is 4.53 for the last three years while he has a 3.50 after the big game.

Ricky Nolasco – In the 2nd half last year, he struckout ninety-eight hitters and only issued 12 walks… That RN is just what the doctor ordered.

Greetings, fantasy baseball friends.  Jersey Joe, a new columnist, here with the low-down on the AL starters who will climb the hill twice this week (Monday-Sunday).  Always remember that predicting pitching performance is like predicting the weather, but that said, here are my thoughts for the week…

RANKINGS

1.  Zack Greinke (KC) – CHW (Colon), @LAA (Loux)
My $.02:  He’s the AL shizz right now at the SP spot, no doubt.  Don’t need to check any matchups, opponent OPS, etc.  Start him until further notice.

2.  Felix Hernandez (SEA) – TEX (Millwood), @MIN (Liriano)
My $.02:  The King is claiming his throne.  4-0, more than a K per IP, and a manageable walk rate.  Like the Zack Attack, start him until further notice.

3.  Erik Bedard (SEA) – TEX (Padilla), @MIN (Blackburn)
My $.02:  Interestingly enough, Bedard’s getting his act together in a free-agent season.  Coincidence?  I think not.  No offense, but this guy’s not a ballplayer – he’s a Canadian fur-trapper trapped in pitcher’s body.  I am fairly confident he doesn’t like baseball most of the time.  But he likes it this year, because if he throws well enough, he can convince the Pinstripes or some other team to hand him $53.3 M for 4 years – yup, enough money to build a start-up fur-trapping business into a Canadian conglomerate.  This week, he gets a Hamilton-less Rangers O-ffence (sticking with the Canadian theme) in Safeco, and then the Mariners visit the Twinkies.  Roll with him.  Especially in Canada.

4.  Jon Lester (BOS) — Mon-@NYY (Chamberlain), Sat-TB (Kazmir)
My $.02:  Let’s play good news/bad news.  Bad news: He’s starting in the JetStream and the Yanks’ OPS vs. LHP is 993(!).  Good news: He’s pitched extremely well against both the Pinstripers and the Rays in his (short) career.  More good news: he beat cancer!  If he’s on your team, go get yourself one of those Live Strong yellow bracelets, start him this week, and enjoy life.

5.  Matt Garza (TB) — Tue-BAL (Uehara), Sun-@BOS (Beckett)
My $.02:  Like most TB starters, Garza is a straight-up homeboy… Yup, he likes pitching in the dome he calls home.  Plus, his career numbers versus the boys from Charm City are fantastic.  So his first start looks great.  Start #2 vs. the Sawx?  Yeah, he’s thrown well against them in the past, but I’d like this a lot more if the game was down by the bay (where the watermelons grow…sing it, moms and dads!).  With Beckett’s struggles, though, Garza looks a bit better.  A solid start in most leagues.

6.  Scott Kazmir (TB) — Mon-BAL (Eaton), Sat-@BOS (Lester)
My $.02:  Kaz’s been Forrest’s box of chocolates this season – Joe Maddon and fantasy owners are scratching their heads over his inconsistency.  I really like Start #1: Baltimore’s OPS vs. LHP is 10th in AL, Adam Eaton isn’t, umm, good, and Kaz feasts at home like his rotation brothers.  At Boston against Jon Lester, of course, gives me pause, but the vaunted BOS lineup has struggled vs. LHP in ‘09 (OPS: 9th in AL).  I’m feeling two nice ones from Scotty this week.

7.  Edwin Jackson (DET) — Mon-MIN (Liriano), Sat-@CLE (Reyes)
My $.02:  Love him this week.  Whatever leagues you play, you should start Edwin and enjoy the bounty a-comin’.  He’s pitched extremely well this season despite a dip in his K/9, and the breakout is quietly happening.  Minny’s got Mauer back, but the aside from Morneau-Mauer-Kubel, there’s not much there.  His opposing starters?  Well, Liriano’s not himself, and Anthony Reyes is thisclose to getting sent down – if the Indians had some healthy/good options, he’d be gone already.  Don’t leave Eddy on the bench this week, my friends.  Please.

8.  Joba Chamberlain (NYY) — Mon-BOS (Lester), Sat-@BAL (Eaton)
My $.02:  Ahh, Joba.  The hype machine (not the blogosphere – let’s get that straight) is disappointed you’re not throwing 97 mph anymore.  Me?  I’m not as demanding – 93 mph is fine by me, friend.  Just watch the walks (13 BB in 23.1 IP) – you can’t rely on the Yanks’ infield D to keep bailing you out with double plays, unless Mark Teixiera can play all 4 spots at the same time (which, incidentally, he should be able to do, for all that dough he’s getting).  Not crazy about his start against the Sawx, who are patient enough to wait pitchers out and then pounce. (That’s essentially what happened in his start vs. BOS last week.)  But with Papi’s struggles and Francona’s insistence on letting him work through them in the heart of the order, I’m less concerned.  He can handle the O’s top-heavy lineup in Start #2, and with Adam Eaton on the other end, he should have run support (over/under NYY runs: 7?).  Take a shot with Joba this week.

9.  Francisco Liriano (MIN) — Mon-@DET (Jackson), Sat-SEA (Hernandez)
My $.02:  Picture this – A sunny day in Fantasy Land.  All is not well, however.  Cries ring in the streets, as I call out in desperation for a familiar name.  “2006 Francisco Liriano?  Where are you?  2006 Francisco Liriano?  Come on home, please!  Where are you?”  “I’m sorry, Jersey Joe.  We found him, but he’s lost an arm.”  “Which one?” I ask, hoping for the best.  “The one with the devastating slider and fastball, I’m afraid.”   This week: A righty-heavy DET lineup at Comerica (4th in AL OPS vs. LHP) and then the punch less M’s at home (though he opposes King Felix).  Classic “one good start, one bad start” situation.  I’d probably start him in most leagues, but don’t expect 2006 again.  Like, ever.

10.  Josh Beckett (BOS) — Tue-@NYY (Burnett), Sun-TB (Garza)
My $.02:  2009 hasn’t been kind to Josh.  36 H in 28.2 IP…not so good.  But what really gives me the willies about him?  16 BB in those same 28.2 IP.  He walked 34 last season… in 174.1 IP.  Yikes.  This week, he slings the hardball in the JetStream (New Yankee Stadium) against a rejuvenated Yankee offense before heading home to face Garza and the Rays.  Another pertinent note about Beckett – his ERA at Fenway the last 3 years: 5.65, 4.17, 4.84.  So what am I saying?  You probably can’t bench him, but he doesn’t look poised for much success this week

11.  Brett Anderson (OAK) — Mon-LAA (Loux), Sat-TOR (Tallet)
My $.02:  He’s a nice young SP who has thrown much better than his numbers attest, and he’s at home in the cavernous Oakland Mausoleum (where hitters go to die… just ask Matt Holliday!) for both starts.  Plus, his opposing starters stink.  On the flip side – the Toronto offense is raking these days, and LAA can dink and dunk their way to keeping it close.  But I’m feeling B.A. this week, so if you trust a random fantasy blogger you’ve never met, take a chance on Brett (and me) and start him.  ***Injury note: Anderson is dealing with a blister, but it apparently shouldn’t be a problem.  Just be careful here

12.  A.J. Burnett (NYY) — Tue-BOS (Beckett), Sun-@BAL (Uehara)
My $.02:  Look, the guy’s got nipple rings.  That, to me, says “No Fear”.  I mean, my nipples chafe when I wear a tight t-shirt, and I consider that painful enough to take a sick day.  So, we know he’s not intimidated by the mighty Sawx hitters, and the numbers bear that out, as he’s traditionally pitched well against them (at least until he was bombed by them this season).  But something’s not quite right with A.J. this season.  Adjusting to a new team?  New piercings in sensitive places?  Vandalizing school property?  Blowing up a car?  Whatever the reason, Tony and Carmella would ground him – should you?  Well, with BOS at home, and then a second start against the O’s, a team he’s struggled against in his career, I’m not very confident.  If you do start him, you might receive a fantasy purple nurple from the Nipple King.  Be prepared

13.  Kyle Davies (KC) — Tue-CHW (Floyd), Sun-@LAA (Ortega)
My $.02:  Yeah, he’s basically become a usable starter in AL Only and deep mixed leagues, as scary as that sounds.  This week, two so-so offenses challenge Kyle’s trip up the AL Starter ranks.  The White Sox don’t hit RHP well and fare much better at home, and while the Angels of LA can bleed a pitcher to death with Mike Scioscia’s version of small ball, I’m just not afraid of that lineup without Bad Vlad.  Borderline, but I’d probably start him in AL Only leagues

14.  Kevin Millwood (TEX) — Mon-@SEA (Hernandez), Sat-@CHW (Colon)
My $.02:  Believe it or not, he’s a decent option this week.  The mighty (lucky, so far) M’s sport an OPS vs. RHP under .700 (which puts them next to last in the AL in that category), and Ozzie’s boys are just one spot better.  If you need him, use him

15.  Dallas Braden (OAK) — Tue-LAA (Ortega), Sun-TOR (Cecil)
My $.02:  Every year, there’s a few SP that come out of nowhere and give you stats for a stretch.  Braden’s been one of those guys this season.  Yeah, there’s some talent here, but its not clear how much.  Regardless, with both starts in Oakland, I think you should roll the dice, as the Angels don’t hit lefties much and the Jays are starting a rookie (Brett Cecil) who clearly isn’t read for prime time against Braden in Start #2

16.  Gavin Floyd (CHW) — Tue-@KC (Davies), Sun-TEX (Padilla)
My $.02:  I was more bullish on this guy than most, because: 1) he was a 1st round pick and has some talent; and, 2) he had a lights-out spring training.  Now, I know what you’re thinking: spring training doesn’t matter.  Hold on, I say; for a young guy trying to consolidate his skill development, I think it does.  Unfortunately, Gavin’s struggled in the early going and I don’t have a clear sense of what to expect.  KC stinks against righties, and TEX doesn’t hit well away from Arlington…but again, this one’s a crapshoot.  I’d probably sit him this early in the season for a safer option

17.  Rick Porcello (DET) — Tue-MIN (Blackburn), Sun-@CLE (Carmona)
My $.02:  Not a terrible slate this week for the young star.  His problem seems to be command; he loses his stuff after a few innings, and once he falls behind, he can’t seem to figure out how to work his way out of it.  Until he strings together a few solid starts, I’d bench him except in deep AL Only leagues.  But he is coming, folks.  Be patient

18.  Nick Blackburn (MIN) — Tue-@DET (Porcello), Sun-SEA (Bedard)
My $.02:  Are you chasing wins?  Because there’s no other reason to have this guy in your lineup otherwise.  His ERA might be passable, but he doesn’t K anyone and his WHIP won’t help you any.  Not the worst matchups in the world, I guess, as the Tigers and Mariners don’t exactly hammer righties, so if he’s on your roster, you can use him.  Just know what you’re getting – a shot at two wins.  Nothing more, and possibly, a lot less (meaning damage to your ERA and WHIP could hurt you.  To me, the down outweighs the up, but it’s your team, right?

19.  Bartolo Colon (CHW) — Mon-@KC (Greinke), Sat-TEX (Millwood)
My $.02:  Don’t call it a comeback!  Yes, the Chubby One (and look at that hair!) has returned, but that doesn’t mean you need to get on the bus.  Because if you did, it would likely tip over.  Or, he’d try to eat you.  Do you want that?  I didn’t think so.

20.  Koji Uehara (BAL) — Tue-@TB (Garza), Sun-NYY (Burnett)
My $.02:  I don’t speak Japanese, but if I could, I’d draw/write characters that translate into the following description for Koji’s chances this week: a major typhoon and Godzilla crushing Tokyo – at the same time.  Look, could he surprise me?  Sure.  But I just don’t think his stuff (caution: ScoutSpeak) is good enough to handle AL East lineups.  I’m issuing a hold on Koji for this week.  Wait for the right matchups with this guy, or you shall suffer the consequences

21.  Fausto Carmona (CLE) — Tue-@TOR (Cecil), Sun-DET (Porcello)
My $.02:  It seemed like just yesterday that Fausto was licking those green midges off his lips like some leftover poppy seeds from a toasty bagel, mowing down Yankee hitters while Joe Torre slept, err, sat stone-faced on the bench.  Fast-forward to 2009, and it appears that he’s become one of those midges on the mound.  If you like pain, I invite you to allow Fausto to throw home run balls for you to the Toronto Bomb Jays and the Detroit Tigers this week.  Otherwise, please bench him

22.  Anthony Reyes (CLE) — Mon-@TOR (Tallet), Sat-DET (Jackson)
My $.02:  Don’t start him.  Under any circumstances.

23.  Brian Tallet (TOR) — Mon-CLE (Reyes), Sat-@OAK (Anderson)
My $.02:  Nope.