Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome to the 3rd annual stab at highlighting the riskiest pitcher propositions in fantasy baseball.  I say ‘stab’ because I can’t claim success just yet.  It’s easier to do that when you don’t compare your results against any baseline (like Mr. Verducci at SI.com).  The fact is that many pitchers will go on the DL and more than half will regress from the previous years (58% of pitchers who threw 2,700+ pitches saw their xFIP increase the following year between 2005-2010).wi

My focus is on identifying those who 1) are a favorite for a MLB rotation, 2) pitched in the majors last year anscrd had some level of success, and 3) are more likely to miss a considerable part of the season (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).  Using xFIP helps to separate a true decrease in performance from just bad luck.

Last year proved to be the safest season for starting pitchers in the last six years.  Only 8 pitchers qualified as a ‘dropoff’ and one of those is a technicality (Joba moving to the bullpen).  The other seven were:  Brett Anderson, Doug Davis, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Javier Vazquez.  Josh Beckett had 2,172 pitches and a +0.66 xFIP to barely escape both thresholds.  The counts for the previous 5 years (with roughly the same amount of qualified pitchers) is:  21, 28, 10, 17, and 19.  Since James ‘Dr. Freeze‘ Andrews hasn’t developed an instant Tommy John surgery, I am going to assume this is a statistical fluke and the ‘dropoff’ rate will stay at about 25% per year vs. 2010′s 11% (8 of 70).

With 2010′s 11% dropoff rate, my list of 20 risky pitchers should have been able to identify at least two of the pitchers.  Now, this is somewhat unfair since Marquis and Suppan were toast going into 2010 and I would’ve never picked them but, anyway, see below for the results.  I suppose I should get some credit for nailing three of my first four picks but I wish I added Javier Vazquez (he was on the 2009 list) and Jar-Jar Jurrjens (14.1% sliders in 2009).

Verdict	Number	Players
Dropoff	2 (10%)	#1 Brett Anderson (1,801 pitches) #4 Joba Chamberlain (1,170 pitches)
Dropoff but didn’t technically qualify	1 (5%)	#2 Ross Ohlendorf (1,771 pitches)
Incorrect But Saw Some Legit Dropoff	5 (25%)	#7 Chris Carpenter (+0.46 xFIP increase) #12 Jorge De La Rosa (2,026 pitches) #15 Joel Pineiro (2,306 pitches) #17 Scott Feldman (2,410 pitches, +0.39 xFIP) #18 Ricky Nolasco (2,476 pitches. +0.27 xFIP)
Close to 2009 Performance	9 (45%)	#3 Kevin Correia #5 Randy Wells #8 Jason Hammel #9 Jeff Niemann #10 Gavin Floyd #11 Ryan Dempster #13 Max Scherzer #14 Ricky Romero #19 Tommy Hanson
Made Me Look Bad	3 (15%)	#6 Adam Wainwright (procrastinator) #16 Edwin Jackson (-0.54 xFIP) #20 Josh Johnson (-0.25 xFIP, 2,988 pitches)

* The 11% dropoff rate I quoted is for pitchers with 2,700+ pitches the previous year.  I’ll dip below that threshold to find candidates.  Ohlendorf had 2,693 pitches in 2009.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness are elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups (note all the sliders on this list).  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.   (Note:  Surprisingly enough, there is no evidence that curve balls or cutters add any risk – e.g., pitchers who throw 15+% curve balls have a 23% dropoff rate, slightly below the league average.  But I still tread lightly with young pitchers who throw a lot of curveballs or sliders+curves)
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates through the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 42% chance (based on 2004-2010) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  And there are other variables that I cannot account for – notably pitching mechanics (here are some interesting articles on it by SI.com’s Tom Verducci and Joe Lemire).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one…

#1 – Brett Myers

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,145 -> 3,457 (+2,312)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

A ‘Brett’ makes #1 on the list for the 2nd straight year – albeit one with less sex appeal in roto drafts.  This marks a return for Brett Myers who I had #4 on the 2009 list and he responded with an injury-filled 1,145 pitch year.  Last year, he was a workhorse for the Astros (3,457 pitches) and was one of the top 30 ‘best values’ based on his ADP.  But Myers threw 28% sliders and another 20% curveballs to reach that performance level.  Even worse, all his value is tied into those two pitchers as his fastball was worth -14.1 runs vs average as opposed to his slider (+14.7) and curveball (+13.2).  I’d steer clear of him in favor of similarly ranked but safer alternatives.  This is one of those cases where a pitcher treats his elbow like a close family member and that’s not a good thing.

#2 – Bud Norris

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  954 -> 2,726 (+1,772)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  33%

Look at that – two Astro pitchers at the top of the list.  It’s like Brian McNamee’s 2005 appointment book!  Bud Norris’ 4.92 ERA in 2010 doesn’t look great but his 9.25 K/9 IP does.  Combined with his xFIP of 4.12, Norris is the epitome of a promising late-round pitcher.  And while the pitch increase seems dramatic, he did throw 120 minor league IP in 2009.  The catch is that he’s a similar pitcher to Brett Myers.  His fastball has been below league average throughout his short career with his slider being his only above average pitch.  The list of second year pitchers since 2005 coming off  a 2,700 pitch season with 25+% sliders are: Bronson Arroyo (2005), Nate Robertson (2005), Casey Fossum (2006), Daniel Cabrera (2006), Josh Towers (2006), Ian Snell (2007), Armando Gallaraga (2009), Johnny Cueto (2009), Brett Anderson (2010), and Joba Chamberlain (2010).  The only one of those ten pitchers not to see an increase in xFIP is Joba Chamberlain and he was a reliever.  Eight of these 10 failed to reach 3,000 pitches the next year (Arroyo and Snell were the exceptions).  Houston, we may have a problem.

#3 – Francisco Liriano

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,318 -> 3,021 (+703)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  34%

The Liriano of 2006 finally reappeared last year and he had a fantastic season (3.06 xFIP, 9.4 K/9 IP) somewhat obscured by a rough BABIP (.331) that inflated his ERA to 3.62.  His fastball speed has found its way above 93 MPH after being at 90-91 MPH in 2009-2010.  It’s hard not to look at him and not think of Johan Santana.  That’s the problem, though.  He may be a diminutive Venezuelan lefty in a Minnesota Twin uniform with a similar repertoire as Johan (fastball, slider, changeup) and they may both enjoy a 7th inning arepa but that’s where the similarities end.  During his dominating prime (2004-2008), Johan had an above average fastball and an all-world changeup (averaged +20 wCH).  His slider was his third pitch, both in effectiveness and frequency.  As Santana’s fastball went from 94 MPH down to 89/90 MPH, his fastball and changeup both suffered and have turned him from a great to a good pitcher.  Liriano, on the other hand, depends on his slider for his relative greatness.  His fastball has been slightly below league average in his career (that’s discounting his -25 wFB in 2009) and his changeup has been only slightly above average.  His slider was a +23 runs in 2006 and +19 runs in 2010 and its effectiveness vs. the fastball/changeup explain why he throws it at such a high clip (37.6% in 2006, 33.8% in 2010).  Until Liriano proves his arm can handle back-to-back years with that high of a slider rate, I consider him very risky.  You can say I’m leery-a-no.

#4 – Anibal Sanchez

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,476 -> 3,234 (+1,758)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  25%

Anibal Sanchez posted his first full season with the Marlins in the 5th year since his 2006 debut.  To give some perspective, he was a Marlin rookie the same year as Hanley Ramirez (both were part of the Josh Beckett trade).  He was a solid 2010 sleeper (a year later that I predicted) with 13 wins, a 3.55 ERA (1.34 WHIP), and a solid 7.3 K/9 IP.  The red flag with Sanchez – besides his past injury history – is that he throws 25% sliders (his most effective pitch) and another 10% curveballs.  His fastball was about average last year so it’s possible that he can reduce his reliance on breaking balls but I would expect a drop in K-rate and xFIP if he does.

#5 – Ervin Santana

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,300 -> 3,561 (+1,261)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  37%

Ervin Santana and Brett Myers are like the Ervin Johnson and Larry Bird of slider-dependent pitchers who have not shown the magic to stitch together two healthy slider-heavy seasons in a row (Myers’ 2003-2006 run was before he started relying on a slider).  Santana’s 17 win 2010 season conjures up memories of 2008 until you see that his K-rate went down (8.8 to 6.8 per 9 IP) and his BB rate went up (1.9 to 3.0).  So the upside is not as high and he still throws a s**t-ton of sliders.  Oh, and his wFB was -13.6 while his wSL was +14.3.  Pass.

#6 – C.J. Wilson

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,299 -> 3,441 (+2,142)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Everyone who saw CJ Wilson’s successful 2010 season coming, please raise your hand.  While it’s difficult to find a pitcher who successfully converted to an SP after 5 years in relief (Wilson was a SP in the minors), there are a handful of cases where a reliever became a valuable SP contributor the next year:   Derek Lowe (2001) Adam Wainwright (2008), Justin Duchscherer (2008), Ryan Dempster (2009), Todd Wellemeyer (2009), and Brett Myers (2009).  Dempster fared okay his second year as a starter.  Wainwright had a finger issue.  Derek Lowe saw his ERA go up nearly two runs and his xFIP went up +0.44.  Wellemeyer collapsed (+0.72 xFIP).  Myers only managed 1,145 pitches.  Duchscherer didn’t pitch in the majors the next year.  Not a very good track record.  The fact Wilson threw 3,441 pitches in the regular season AND a full slate of playoff games can’t help this situation.  (see 2009 Cole Hamels).  CJ could end up standing for Clubhouse Jester this year.

#7 – Ian Kennedy

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  28 -> 3,170 (+3,142)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  5%

The ex-Yankee prospect finally delivered on his promise with a solid 3.80 ERA/1.201 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 IP while staying healthy (3,170 pitches, 190 IP) after an injury-plagued 2009.  Another positive is Kennedy’s balanced pitch mix where his league-average fastball (59% of pitches at -0.8 wFB) is complimented by an effective changeup (17% of pitches for a wCH of +16.4) and curveball (17% of pitches for a wCB of +6.3 runs).  If Kennedy can manage another full season like last year, I wouldn’t even consider him for future lists.  But 2nd year pitchers are risky propositions as they haven’t proven they could handle the year-over-year strain – this is especially true for a pitcher who virtually took the prior year off (23 IP in AAA/majors in 2009).  He should come at a cheap price in drafts so I wouldn’t worry about him too much – just try not to pair him with anyone else in the top 10.

#8 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,670-> 3,549 (+879)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 20%

Carpenter was #7 on last year’s list for the same reason he’s on the list again – I don’t trust any pitcher who throws over 40% breaking pitches (he also throw 27% curveballs).  Given Carpenter’s injury history, it’s incredulous that he threw 200 more pitches than his younger, also breaking pitch-obsessed teammate Adam Wainwright.  Carpenter’s regression from 2009 (ERA from 2.24 to 3.22, xFIP from 3.38 to 3.84) and his pedestrian K-rate (6.8 K/9) should mean he comes at a reduced price this year vs. in 2010.  But I wouldn’t draft him with Bea Arthur’s d**k…I mean, I wouldn’t screw him with any of my draft picks or auction dollars….aw, you know what I mean.

#9 – Phil Hughes

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,459-> 3,007 (+1,548)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

I apologize to Yankee fans who fear that Hughes’ presence on this list is a sign that we have been acquired by ESPN and are now Yankee-haters.  Not the case.  But read my commentary for CJ Wilson (#6 on the list) regarding the history of converted relievers having back-to-back healthy years.  It is almost as imposing as the Phil Hughes bar in Upper East Side New York that my friend Schultz loves so much.  I love Hughes’ maturity, his pitch repertoire (93 MPH fastball, cutter, curve, changeup), and his run support.  I’ll love him more in 2012 when – either way – he’ll be a less risky proposition.

#10 – Brian Duensing

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,322-> 1,885 (+563)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  N/A
Slider %: 20%

If you tell me that you have everything you want and you draft Duensing, well, you don’t get me nor my slightly obscure Beatles references.  I’m digging pretty deep for Duensing since he only threw 1,885 pitches as he was on the Twins-patented “start the season in relief, become an SP midway through the year” plan (see Santana 2003, Liriano 2006).  Duensing managed a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA in 130 IP last year – giving him the preseason lead for the 4th slot in the Twins starting rotation.  A cursory glance at Duensing’s advanced stats provides compelling reasons to avoid him on draft day (5.37 K/9, an xFIP of 4.10).  But that stat line isn’t far off from what you’d get from tolerable endgame playes like Pavano or Buehrle.  The reason he is on this list is he had to throw 20% sliders to achieve that unimpressive K-rate and it was his most valuable pitch (wSL of +14.3).  His minor league history shows a similarly unimpressive K rate so there is absolutely no margin for error with this guy.  Maybe he can be Buerhle 2.0 but it’s more likely he’ll be Done.0 at some point this season.

#11 – Brandon Morrow

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,254-> 2,523 (+1,269)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 15%

There are few things more attractive on draft day than a young pitcher with a crazy K rate (10.95 K/9!!!!) and an ADP greater than 100.  It’s so attractive that you can’t pass up a guy like Morrow if you get him at the right price.  That’s why you love him today…but will you love Brandon to-Morrow (it’s a pun and a lyrical reference!)?:  1) 2010 was his first full-season as an MLB SP, 2) He had pitched relief for much of the previous year, and 3) His slider is his most effective pitch and he throws it 15% of the time.  So draft him hoping he’s a lasting treasure but don’t be surprised if 2010 was just a moment of pleasure.

#12 – Mat Latos

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  869-> 2,965 (+2,096)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 23%

This one hurts more than Morrow.  Latos was awesome last year.  He had four pitches that were above average as far as runs allowed (Fastball, Slider, Curve, Change) with the Fastball/Slider combo ranking in the top 15 (respectively) amongst all starting pitchers.  His 2.92 ERA is mostly legit (3.36 xFIP) and his K-rate is above 1 K per inning (9.21 K/9).  Given he plays in Petco National Park, he is a potential top 10 pitcher for 2011.  But he hits all the dropoff criteria so, if you draft him, pair him with a safer option.

#13 – Jhoulys Chacin

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  211-> 2,304 (+2,093)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  N/A
Slider %: 14%

The player with the fragranciest name west of Aramis is an interesting case study.  His pitch count increase is misleading as he pitched 100 IP in AA the previous year and 35 AAA IP in 2010.  If pitch count isn’t an issue, why in the age of Ubaldo and the humidor would a Rockie pitcher with a K-rate above 1 per inning (9.04 K/9) make the list?  While Chacin may have a similar pitch mix to Ubaldo (both throw 25-30% breaking pitches), Chacin throws 4-5 MPH slower than Ubaldo (96 MPH fastball vs. 91 MPH fastball).  This is one of the reasons why Ubaldo’s fastball was the 2nd most valuable in baseball last year and Chacin’s was league average.  Colorado is a cruel stadium for pitchers depending on breaking pitches (see Darryl Kile).  Unless Chacin can learn to throw harder from Ubaldo or to throw more grounders from Aaron Cook, he’s a riskier play than you might otherwise think.

#14 – Jason Vargas

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,477-> 3,020 (+1,543)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 9%

Despite having the perfect name for a grade school bully (sounds like Scott Farkus), Vargas is like a young Leftosaurus.  His fastball averages 87 MPH and he throws a ton of changeups (29%) though it’s possible this percentage is inflated by miscategorization of his fastball.  Vargas found the perfect home in Seattle and is proof that just about any pitcher could manage a 4.00 ERA in Safeco.  While his 5.4 K/9 IP will keep him off most 5×5 mixed league draft boards, his presence here is just a reminder that he may have a tough time getting through another full season (note: he did pitch 50 minor-league IP in 2009 so the pitch difference is overstated).

#15 – Gio Gonzalez

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,829-> 3,370 (+1,541)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

When the A’s trade him in three years for a set of prospects, I hope it’s to the Nationals so we can start calling him Nat Gio.  Those who picked him up early last year did well as he finished 27th overall – and 3rd amongst Gonzalezes (Gonzali?) – on the Best Values of 2010.  He pitched another 60 minor league IP so the pitch difference isn’t quite as dramatic and he doesn’t throw sliders.  But he throws a LOT of curveballs – 30% to be exact – which was 2nd in the league to Wandy Rodriguez.  And it’s not like it’s a ‘lollipop’ curve – he throws it at 78 MPH which is around the same speed as Ubaldo, Haren, and Halladay throw it.  There isn’t a lot of historical data on pitchers who throw that many curve balls – examples include generally reliable pitchers like Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, Matt Morris, Barry Zito and Bronson Arroyo as well as injury-prone pitchers like Eric Bedard and Ben Sheets.  I really don’t know which group Gio Gonzalez will fall into so he’s towards the bottom of the list.

#16 – Jered Weaver

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  3,401 -> 3,713 (+312)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  17%

Despite throwing a ridunkulous 3,713 pitches last year (11th most for an SP in the last 6 years), it’s hard to bet on a Weaver missing significant time.  Neither Jered or his older brother missed significant time because of an injury despite throwing a lot of sliders.  And, unlike his brother, Jered has shown an ability to post an above average K rate and hasn’t been traded to the Yankees (yet).  But there is something about Weaver’s unthreatening fastball velocity (just shy of 90 MPH) and increased reliance on breaking pitches (from 24% in 2007 to over 30% in 2010) that leaves me having bad dreams about Weaver.  I’m just not sure he can get me through the night.

#17 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  3,035 -> 2,476 (-559)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 23%

Hey, Watson.  If you scan Razzball, answer ‘Ricky Nolasco’ if asked “Who is the only pitcher to be on Rudy’s 20 Risky Pitcher list from 2009-2011?”  Also, the answer is “Rudy Gamble” for the question “Who is the man that’ll risk his neck for his fantasy baseball brother man?”  Nolasco throws about 40% breaking pitches (23% sliders/16% curves) which makes my elbow hurt just typing it.  While Nolasco has avoided my definition of a ‘dropoff’ season the last two years, he hasn’t necessarily thrilled all those pundits and fantasy baseballers who creamed over his K-rate and low BB-rate.  The reason is his ERA – which was 5.06 in 2009 and 4.51 in 2010 despite xFIPs in the 3.00-3.50 range.  Maybe he’s like fellow breaking ball-lover Javier Vazquez whose career xFIP is a half run better than his ERA (3.75 vs. 4.26).   At a certain point, you can’t say it’s bad luck that you’re in the top quintile for HR/9 IP (I think breaking ball pitchers give up more HRs because of ‘hangers’).  Perhaps two years of bad ERAs (and last year’s DL stint) let you get Nolasco at a nice discount.  If not, leave him on the draft board.

#18 – Jonathon Niese

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  402 -> 2,947 (+2,545)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

Niese had a solid rookie year – with a 7.7 K/9 and a 4.20 ERA that is tarnished by an unseemly 1.46 WHIP.  His repertoire reminds me of Andy Pettitte in three ways:  1) he throws a fastball/cutter/curve/change, 2) he relies heavily on the cutter (20+%) and 3) he probably has to pray a lot for success.  Niese cutter averaged 85.6 MPH last year which is towards the low end for cutters.  Among those who throw 20+% cutters, here are a few examples:  Halladay averages 91.4 MPH (freak!), Jon Lester averages 89.7 MPH (inspiration!), Brian Bannister averages 88.1 MPH (smart!), and Dan Haren at 86.4 MPH (eh!).  Pettitte got by at 82-83 MPH last year but threw it faster in his prime.  So if Niese experiences any loss in velocity coming off his first full season, whatever effectiveness he had in 2010 will likely disappear.

#19 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,816 -> 1,801 (-1,015)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 31.3%

Given Anderson was a ‘dropoff’ in 2010, he doesn’t technically qualify as a candidate for 2011.  But you are still going to draft him assuming he is going to give you near 200 IP so he is worth including in the list.  Brett Anderson was a pundit favorite going into last year but his slider rate scared me enough to give him the #1 risky pitcher spot.  After missing about a third of his starts last year, I think he still has residual hype from 2009 to fuel hype around this being a bounceback year.  I say this because no one loves bouncebacks more than Grey and he kept on IMing “He’s sexy.  Draft him!” during our last auction draft.   But take a look at his 2010 results.  In 112 IP, he had a 6.01 K/9 IP.  Blech.  His xFIP was 3.75 but his ERA was 2.80 thanks to an unsustainable strand rate a very low HR rate.  Yes, he’s got great control (1.76 BB/9) but that’s not enough to make him an ace.  This is with throwing 31.3% sliders which is 7th in the majors for pitchers above 110 IP (three above him are on this list:  Norris, Liriano, and Ervin Santana).  I’d maybe take a late round flier on him or bid $2 in a mixed league.  But I wouldn’t invest much more in him until he’s shown he can handle 200 IP with a slider rate that high.

#20 – Clay Buchholz

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,521-> 2,810 (+1,289)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 19%

I don’t particularly hate Buchholz in 2010 despite the fact that he hits all three criteria and – based solely on his ESPN commercials and this photo - he gives off a Beckett-like douchiness.  But I just don’t like 2nd year starters who throw a number of breaking pitches (he also throws a curve 9% of the time).  His 17 wins and 2.33 ERA look awfully good but, like Anderson, he had very low HR and high strand rates.  His xFIP was 4.20 which, coupled with his 6.2 K/9 is just so-so.  He throws fast enough (94 MPH fastball) that he could take a step up in 2011 but I wouldn’t pay market price for him.

Tommy John surgery, Dr. Freeze, Adam Wainwright.  Words you just don’t want to hear.  Okay, not Dr. Freeze as much unless you only get your news from Razzball, which I’m fine with but you may walk around calling people schmohawks and telling your girlfriend her meatloaf was kinda yawnstipating.  Rudy totally called this one! (Just a fraction too early, like 12 months.)  Obviously, this is terrible news for Wainwright owners (and kinda Wainwright himself).  If you are drafting right now, assume Wainwright will miss lots of time, if not the whole season.  I plan on moving Wainwright to the end of the top 80 starters.  I wouldn’t draft Wainwright in any league.  I also don’t believe in this, “Ooh, I’ll draft Wainwright for a dollar and sit him on my bench for a year in keepers.”  You’re using a bench spot that is critical to winning this year, which everyone should be trying to do.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Cliff Lee – Strained ab muscle.  He is like an apple.  The only thing that leaves a bad taste in your mouth is his core.  Word on the streets is he’ll be fine.  Going too high in drafts for me to take him anyway, so there’s that.

Corey Hart – Said on Monday that he played 2010 without contacts.  You’d think the Brewers could spring for some prescription sunglasses for night games.

Neftali Feliz – The Rangers are stretching him out to see if he can move into the rotation.  If it happens, he would immediately be in the top 40 starters, right behind Marcum in the tier, “I kinda love these guys.”  I’m not completely convinced it is going to happen as Ron Washington has said he likes Feliz getting the final three outs.  Also, it could be one of those shituations where Feliz looks great in the rotation and Mark Lowe is the closer for three days, gets rocked and Feliz is the closer again.  The good thing about this is if you draft Feliz, he’ll have value wherever he ends up.

Vicente Padilla – His forearm didn’t say it was a forearm before it grabbed his nerve and now his nerve has a case of entrapment.  Or something.  Grey no doctor.  Padilla does need elbow surgery, but he shouldn’t have been drafted in any leagues in the first place.  BTW, Padilla before the elbow pain.  Padilla after the elbow pain.

Matt Kemp – Reports say he dropped 15 pounds in the offseason.  I thought Rihanna weighed at least a couple more pounds than that.

Brian Roberts – Going for X-rays on his neck.  Blech.  Do me a favor and don’t draft him.  He’s like Mr. Glass brittle.

Alfredo Simon – There’s no plan right now to exonerate Simon in manslaughter charges.  It’s Oriole profiling.  This pattern goes all the way back to Ben McDonald when he was accused of using his right hand to fondle three men’s testicles at the same time at a Sandals resort.

Francisco Liriano – Threw a bullpen session on Tuesday after complaining of some shoulder tightness last week.  I’m staying cautiously optimistic about Liriano, thinking that if you drafted him last week right after the shoulder tightness news came out you might’ve got yourself a bit of a discount.

Nick Punto – Out 8-12 weeks with a sports hernia.  Calling his hernia a ‘sports’ hernia is both a literal and figurative stretch.

I finished the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for most hitters.  I’ll go back to the Utility guys at some point, but I wanted to move on to the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball while we were both relatively young.  And, yes, relatively is relative.  See what I did there?!  Yeah, I’m not sure myself.  You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain.  Say two to three rounds past their average draft position.  There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 8th to 12th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys.  I do like to grab at least one starter from the 3rd tier listed here, but we’ll get to that.  As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Roy Halladay – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Lee.  I call this tier, “The best, Jerry.  The best!”  As I put Miggy first in the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball, I kinda wanted to put F-Her number one here, but, as long as Halladay is in the NL facing pitchers, I can’t be that contrarian.  I am worried about the insane amount of innings he put on his arm last year, but that’s probably just me being paranoid.  Who said that?!  2011 Projections:  19-7/2.75/1.06/205

2. Felix Hernandez – I love F-Her.  If I didn’t think it would have my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston revoked, I’d project F-Her for a 2.25 ERA and tell you to draft him in the first round.  There was plenty of discussion about his historically insane low support last year.  I won’t rehash it, other than saying that I won’t rehash it, which kinda does rehash it.  He could easily win 20+ games this year.  Run support is fickle.  Double negatives be damned, don’t not draft F-Her because you’re worried about wins.  Don’t not draft him because you need a 3rd baseman and you don’t want to start Mark Teahen at 3rd base while your team languishes in last place.  2011 Projections:  16-12/2.80/1.10/220

3. Adam Wainwright – UPDATE:  I went over Wainwright’s injury.  Don’t draft him. The problem I have with Wainwright is… Nothing!  El oh el!!!  Some dopey people should be outlawed from ever writing that acronym.  Seriously, there’s no way they are actually laughing out loud as much as they write it.  If they were, they’d be in a mental asylum.  Wanna go into an el oh el wasteland?  Check out your high school friends on Facebook.  Especially the girls that used to be attractive.  I guarantee they are laughing out loud right now.  What are you laughing at?!  That your baby said poo-poo?!  Okay, changing the subject back to Wainwright before I have an aneurysm.  Wainwright’s fastball actually gained speed last year, K-rate went up a notch and he’s right in the middle of his prime.  No reason why he can’t repeat everything from last year except wins, which he can repeat just don’t count on it.  2011 Projections:  Nothing

4. Cliff Lee – I already went over my Cliff Lee fantasy when he signed with the Phils.  2011 Projections:  16-6/2.95/1.05/190

5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Lincecum and Sabathia.  I call this tier, “Top starters that I’m wary of.”  Lincecum’s resemblance to kd lang shouldn’t factor into your decision on whether or not to draft him, his falling K-rate should.  Last year the percentage of pitches a batter hit outside the strike zone was 56% compared to 48.8% the year before.  He also lost a mile on his fastball, threw his slider a lot more and his curveball a lot less.  All these things separate?  Whatever.  Together?  Something stinks and it’s not his bong.  If all of these things revert, it’s all good.  If this is a start of a trend, we might be seeing a different pitcher in Lincecum than what we’re accustomed to seeing.  Before you scoff, you scoffer, think about how terrific Johan was not that long ago.  You drafting him this year?  2011 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/225

6. CC Sabathia – For three years, CC’s walk rate has gone up.  For three years, his K-rate has gone down.  For three years, his WHIP has gone up.  For three years, his wins have gone up which has helped mask the disturbing trends orbiting him.  He will be 31 years old in July and I really think he should be fine for another year, but, for where you have to draft him, it’s not worth the warning signs he’s coming bundled with.  2011 Projections:  18-10/3.40/1.20/190

7. Jon Lester – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gallardo.  I call this tier, “I’m going to have one of these guys on my team.”  Usually around the 5th through the 8th rounds of a draft, I grab one SP.  It’s nice to have one guy that you can send out there with confidence when you’re upside Morrow, Marcum etc. etc. etc. picks crap the bed during any given start.  This tier could also be called, “These guys could all win the Cy Young but they come at a better price in the draft than the names above.”  It’s no surprise the first guy in the tier of starters I like is a guy with a K-rate that is over 9.  I love strikeout pitchers, as everyone and their cousin’s monkey knows.  Cousin’s monkey, “I read Matthew Berry.”  Simply, if a guy can strikeout out a hitter with runners in scoring position, he has a better chance of getting out of an inning than a guy who needs someone to hit the ball to a fielder.  Lester should get all the run support he needs, should keep his ERA in the low 3′s and strikeout 200+ hitters.  Yes, please and thank you.  2011 Projections:  17-9/3.30/1.18/220

8. Clayton Kershaw – I see Verlander, Weaver and Josh Johnson on a lot of perts’ rankings for this spot.  I don’t dislike those guys, but a K-rate over 9 on an ace in the NL West, pitching his home games in a pitchers’ park is too good for me to pass up.  Oh, and he cut his walk rate from 2009 to 2010 by more than a full walk per nine.  If he takes one step forward and gets run support, he’s winning the Cy Young.  2011 Projections:  14-8/3.00/1.15/220

9. Francisco Liriano – You could kinda guess my favorite guys by just going through the top K-rates for last year.  It’s not thrilling to me that we have a few AL pitchers in here.  I do prefer NL pitchers when push comes to shove.  But a pitchers’ park like Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome helps and a guy with an xFIP of 3.06 last year doesn’t hurt.  2011 Projections:  15-7/3.15/1.18/220

10. Yovani Gallardo – I don’t think anything is as shortsighted in fantasy baseball as when people look at last year, underrate a guy and don’t think about what they can do in the upcoming season.  We are drafting for 2011 now not 2010, right?  Gallardo cut his walk rate by almost one per nine, K’d almost 10 per 9 and had an xFIP below 3.50.  If you’re doing a throwback to 2010 league, don’t draft YoGa this high, his ERA was 3.84.  If you’re doing like me and drafting for 2011, get him.  2011 Projections:  16-9/3.30/1.24/220

11. Jered Weaver – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ubaldo.  I call this tier, “I would draft one of these guys, but I think others will take them first.”  I think we just saw a career year from Weaver.  I don’t think he approaches quite that K-rate, walk rate and ERA again this year, which made me almost want to put him in the next tier of pitchers that I don’t want, but even if he only loses one strikeout per nine and gains back some of his walks, I still think he’s going to be a top starter.  I do think he probably will be drafted before I get him because of my ranking.  2011 Projections:  15-10/3.40/1.15/195

12. Josh Johnson – Here’s another guy that will probably end up on someone else’s team in 2011.  It’s not that I don’t like porn star Gosh Johnson’s brother as much as the next guy, but, well, I don’t.  All his injuries annoy me for where you have to draft him.  2011 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.10/160 in 150 IP

13. Justin Verlander – Yet another guy I don’t terribly dislike, but he’s really more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a great K-rate who is drafted like he’s a sub-3 ERA pitcher with an incredible K-rate.  Also, his Aprils and first innings drive me batty.  If he started his season in May and had Valverde pitch the first, Verlander would be a top 5 starter.  2011 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.18/210

14. Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo’s more than a hair off the pitcher he was last year.  (Pun point!)  His 1st half last year was one for the storybooks, if you’re reading bedtime stories to Bill James’ kids.  His 2nd half ERA of 3.80 wasn’t necessarily bad, but it wasn’t his 2.20 ERA from the 1st half.  Unfortunately, he’s closer to the pitcher we saw in the 2nd half.  I’m not saying he’ll be quite that bad, just closer to it.  2011 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.20/195

15. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “If I failed to get a pitcher in the Lester tier, I absolutely need one from this tier.” If you grabbed a pitcher from the Lester tier, feel free to skip this tier.  If you draft two pitchers from these tiers, there’s a chance you’re hurting your hitting.  That’s, of course, assuming one of these guys doesn’t fall far enough in the draft where it makes sense to double dip.   As for Hamels, I’ve liked him for four (stutterer!) straight years now.  As long as he avoids bad luck, he’ll be a solid 3 and a half ERA pitcher with Ks.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.40/1.18/190

16. Roy Oswalt – What’s this?  The entire Phillies pitching staff in the top 20?  Yeah, pretty much.  If you’re thinking about avoiding one of them because you’re concerned that all of them can’t win 20 games, you’re being silly.  They can all win 15 games.  You’ll take that and like it.  2011 Projections:  15-8/3.35/1.16/175

17. Zack Greinke – I already went over my Greinke fantasy when he was traded to the Brewers.  Nothing’s changed since then, except for that hair growing out of your mole.  2011 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.18/200

18. David Price – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “You guys had fun last year, I’d let someone else enjoy them this year.”  Each one of these pitchers has positives.  Price’s K-rate went up last year, Latos pitches in Petco and Buchholz should get run support, but their negatives have me turning away.  As with the Weaver tier, these guys probably won’t fall far enough for me to draft one.  As for Price, he was lucky last year; his xFIP was 3.99.  Also, he derived a lot of value from wins last year and, as previously mentioned three gazillion times, don’t count on wins.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.22/185

19. Mat Latos – I’ll lay this out for you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it, Latos threw too many innings last year.  2011 Projections:  9-7/3.50/1.10/160

20. Clay Buchholz – His K-rate is terrible, he pitches in a tough park in a tough division and his number one category is wins, which are fickle.  Or fichhkle.  2011 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.25/140

All the final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters is done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2011 (caps for those still wearing their Piranha 3-D glasses).  This is a recap.  Will these affect next year’s rankings?  Sure.  But not entirely.  To recapitulate, these rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater.  It’s an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is the Tootie and I’m the Natalie?  No, just an unbiased comparison.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay – Now I’m either a freakin’ genius or I’m lucky as a leprechaun standing under a pigeon who just ate Mexican food.  I’d like to think it’s the former.  There’s only one surprising name in this group of 20 starters, who I’ll get to in a bit.  Did I rank all of these guys exactly as they ended up?  No, I’m not Ms. Cleo.  But if you would’ve asked me if I you should draft 18 of 20 of these starters, I would’ve said sure.  Carpenter I wasn’t a fan of, but he’s not completely surprising.  It’s no wonder that in all of my leagues, my pitching was beyond respectable (except for wins).  Continued in Wainwright’s blurb.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185, Final Numbers:  21-10/2.44/1.04/219

2. Adam Wainwright – I never drafted a pitcher before the 3rd round and, if I did draft one there, I’d lay off starters for 4 to 5 rounds.  It wasn’t like I sat there and drafted Johan, Greinke and F-Her.  If I did, I would’ve been screwed.  I’d grab F-Her then much later Baby Weaver then later Oswalt then Jonathan Sanchez.  If you don’t think that’s a solid top 4 in a league with 12 or more teams, you need to lay off the glue sniffing.  Continued in F-Her’s blurb.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections: 16-8/3.30/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.42/1.05/213

3. Felix Hernandez – The projections might not be exactly on for these starters, but 18 of the 20 starters here all fell in a preseason grouping of starters that I was excited about drafting.  As for Felix… Sure, F-Her blew when it came to wins, but you can’t fault him for that.  Well, I mean, you can, but then you’d be Joe Morgan.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections: 18-6/3.00/1.10/220, Final Numbers:  13-12/2.27/1.06/232

4. Ubaldo Jimenez – Here’s what I said in the preseason, “Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Though the 2nd half for Ubaldo was a worry with a 4.15 ERA.  Though II, The Return of Though, the first half was insane.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.27/200, Final Numbers:  19-8/2.88/1.15/214

5. Roy Oswalt – I realize he was on the Astros for half the year, so there’s goes those wins, but what explains his only 7 wins on the best NL team in the 2nd half?  I asked it, so I’ll answer it.  My win karma is why.  Sorry, Oswalt and all Oswalt owners.  I’m currently meditating 3 hours a day in hopes of turning around my bad win karma.  Preseason Rank #28, 2010 Projections: 12-6/3.65/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  13-13/2.76/1.03/193

6. Jered Weaver – “Okay, but is Weaver really this good?”  That’s you.  Here’s me, “He led the major leagues in strikeouts.”  Unlike Wins, you don’t back into that.  I already touched a bit on my 2011 Jered Weaver fantasy.  Preseason Rank #24, 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.22/180, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.01/1.07/233

7. CC Sabathia – He had his worst WHIP in 5 years.  His worst K-rate in 5 years.  His worst walk rate in 5 years.  His luckiest with men left on base in his career.  Paradoxically, his ground ball rate went up.  You may be looking at the beginning of the end for Prince Fielder’s stunt double.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections: 20-10/3.45/1.17/200, Final Numbers:  21-7/3.18/1.19/197

8. David Price – In honor of December Grey, here’s his David Price sleeper post from last year.  The Price was right, snitches!  Preseason Rank #26, 2010 Projections: 12-9/3.75/1.30/155, Final Numbers:  19-6/2.72/1.19/188

9. Cliff Lee – PETA would’ve appreciated The Adverb’s season because there was hardly any balls.  In all seriousness, spay and neuter your adverbs.  Preseason Rank #13, 2010 Projections: 15-8/3.40/1.22/160, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.18/1.00/185

10. Justin Verlander – Technically, not a bad season from Verlander, but why does it feel like I was annoyed every time he was starting a game?  Oh, I know.  His BAA vs. the 1st hitter was .291, which is 25 points worse than any other hitter.  Verlander was also terrible in the first inning and in April (5.53 ERA).  Idea bulb!  Bring Valverde in for the first inning then let Verlander close out the final 8.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections: 17-11/3.25/1.20/230, Final Numbers:  18-9/3.37/1.16/219

11. Jon Lester – If you throw out the final start of the year, Lester’s ERA was below 3.  If you throw out 2 wins, 2 losses, 10 Ks and add an extra 3 earned runs, my projections were right on.  If you throw out the year 2000, my stock portfolio would still be worth something.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections: 17-7/3.35/1.20/215, Final Numbers:  19-9/3.25/1.20/225

12. Josh Johnson – He’s like a rich man’s Erich Bedarden.  I guess it could be worse.  He could’ve pitched more than one start in September and had the results of Latos.  Speaking of which… Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.35/1.22/175, Final Numbers:  11-6/2.30/1.11/186

13. Mat Latos – Had four straight months of an ERA below 2.38.  In September, his ERA was 6.21.  I’m pretty bummed that the Padres pitched him so many innings and now it’s going to be hard to own him next year.  Oh, well.  I’ll see you in 2012, Latos.  Preseason Rank #68, 2010 Projections: 6-7/4.15/1.32/125, Final Numbers:  14-10/2.92/1.08/189

14. Tim Hudson – There were about three months in the season where I kept saying Hudson was getting lucky and his ERA would raise.  Didn’t really work out that way.  I did like Hudson in the preseason, so I didn’t count him in the 2 starters from this list I wouldn’t have owned.  I would’ve probably sold him some time in July though.  Preseason Rank #59, 2010 Projections: 13-5/3.55/1.32/145, Final Numbers:  17-9/2.83/1.15/139

15. Matt Cain – Cain continued his bafflement of the Fangraphs Database.  As I said towards the end of the season, I’m done saying Cain’s getting lucky.  He is, but I’m done saying.  Okay, I’m not done saying it, but I am.  If you catch my drift…  He was lucky!  Preseason Rank #32, 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.25/165, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.14/1.08/177

16. Clayton Kershaw – If Dodgers won 90 games and Kershaw won 20 games, he’s in the Cy Young conversation.  I’m not saying this to defend my preseason Cy Young selection of Kershaw, but I am, so there.  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections: 12-4/3.20/1.22/200, Final Numbers:  13-10/2.91/1.18/212

17. Trevor Cahill – The only completely surprising name in this entire list.  I would’ve bet against him being a top 20 starter.  So does that mean I’m moron or Cahill was lucky last year?  They’re unrelated.  Both can be true and at times are true.  Cahill’s FIP was 4+ and his K-rate was egregious.  Cahill had no business having the season he had.  Preseason Rank #81, 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185, Final Numbers:  18-8/2.97/1.11/118

18. Chris Carpenter – This name isn’t surprising and is surprising.  It’s surprising because I figured Carp would get hurt, it’s not surprising because when he’s healthy he has been solid.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections: 14-7/3.10/1.05/135, Final Numbers:  16-9/3.22/1.18/179

19. Cole Hamels – After a subpar 2008, I predicted a nice bounce back for Hamels.  Well, here ya go.  Had the best K-rate of his career in a full season and had a 2.23 ERA in the 2nd half of the year.  It’s true, I have a small crush on Hamels.  We all have our crosses to bear, especially if you’re Mr. T.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.45/1.15/185, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.06/1.18/211

20. Clay Buchholz – I’ll tell ya what, I was kinda crazy for Buchholz in the preseason and he ended up okay with all the wins and decent, if misleading ERA, but his lack of Ks is downright scary.  Who jacked him for his Ks?  It’s kinda appropriate that his name uses all hard Cs.  Preseason Rank #41, 2010 Projections: 14-9/3.95/1.34/155, Final Numbers:  17-7/2.33/1.20/120

Welcome to the year end Razzball Awards!  Or as they call them in New Jersey, the “What’s this crap?”  Unlike the ESPYs, you won’t have to wear a tux or listen to Derek Jeter try to be funny.  Speaking of Viagra — Vlad’s got one good leg and he’s not wearing a shoe on it. Nope, for these awards, all you need to do is read.  What a novel concept!  Pun point, snitches!  Anyway, here’s the 2010 Razzball Year End Awards:

Fantasy AL Most Valuable Player – Crawford made an interesting case for MVP, but it involved reading and I don’t do that.  Jose Bautista might’ve won this award if he wasn’t cheating.  They’ll be other awards for him.  So my AL Fantasy MVP is Miguel Cabrera.  When Miggy was asked how it felt to win the AL MVP Razzballie, he said, “I’d prefer a pint of Shock Top.”   Thanks for coming to pick up your award, Miggy!  I hope you’re not driving.

Fantasy NL Most Valuable Player – I’d love to sit here — and I am sitting — and give the award to Votto, but Votto did him and CarGo did Votto plus ten steals.  CarGo, you are the belle of the Razzballies!

Fantasy AL Cy Young – Prepare for the week debate in November when F-Her (almost?) loses the award because of the M’s offense.  Here, he can win the award.  Hopefully he works on his hitting in the winter leagues and bats cleanup next year.

Fantasy NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay gets the mustache trophy.  Wainwright gets to want the mustache trophy.

Fantasy AL Least Valuable Player – Ian Kinsler made a solid case for terrible, but Grady Sizemore just flat out raked if you were to read that in the mirror.  Closest Grady Sizemore came to taking off this year was in his amateur Playgirl shoot.

Fantasy NL Least Valuable Player – As much as I’d like to give Matt Kemp this award, I can’t give a 28/19 guy the honors.  Maybe if he starts dating Lady Gaga next year, he’ll have better luck, and meat.  This year, the award for totally sucking up the suckhole in the NL was Jimmy Rollins.  He was injured half the year, and when he played, you wish he was injured.

Special Lifetime Achievement Award That Is Only A Reflection Of This Season And Not Of A Lifetime – Jose Bautista.  Well played, Bautista.  Now take the rubber balls out of your bat.

Fantasy Hitter You Most Likely Dropped and Picked Up A Dozen Times – Oh my God, Luke Scott is hitting!  Hmm… Now I don’t think he is.  Wait!  He is!  Well, maybe he isn’t.  No, he definitely is!  Oh, he’s injured.  He’s healthy but is he hitting?  Yes!  No!  Let me ask Grey!

Player You Had Forever and Most Wanted to Drop – You, “I don’t care if Mike Napoli gets 30 homers, I just want to drop him.”

Player On The Top Of Your Waivers That You Just Couldn’t Bring Yourself to Pick Up – Really, Omar Infante? He  just seems counterproductive even when he is productive.

Pitcher You Streamed So Much You Ended Up Owning Him – Brett Myers. Now please don’t smash your award through your girlfriend’s car windshield.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From, But Thankfully It Never Did – Jose Bautista. If you knew he’d hit 30 homers, let alone 50, you’re a damn liar. Or a witch. Maybe you can run for Senate.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and It Ended Up Kicking You in the Groin – Ubaldo is so going to throw a 1.00 ERA all year! Hmm… Maybe a 2? How about a 3? In June, his ERA was 4.41; in July, 6.04; in August, 2.83 and, in September, 4.34.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and When It Did You Were Okay With It – Kelly Johnson wasn’t quite the hitter after April, but at 2nd base and with 10+ homers in the 2nd half, you could’ve done worse.

Player You Traded Away That You Most Regretted – 50 plus homers from Jose Effin’ Bautista?!  And all I got back was the underperforming Mark Teixeira and a bag of Funyons?! At least the Funyons didn’t disappoint.

Player You Traded For That You Most Regretted – Did Pablo Sandoval really just hit .250 on my team with 7 extra base hits in three months?

Top SAGNOF – Juan Pierre/Billy Wagner (tie)

Player Who Pulled A Kotchman – Justin Morneau was injury-prone coming into the season.  This year, he one-upped even himself when he missed the final three months after being hit in the head by John McDonald’s knee.  Took the phrase ‘taking a knee’ to a whole new level.

Biggest Waste Of A Razzball Glossary Term – Sparkakis!

Slam & Legs Award – Carlos Gonzalez

Remember That Feeling You Had When You Walked In On Your Parents Having Sex, This Pitcher Gave You That Feeling Every Fifth Day – Zack Greinke.  Way to followup the Cy Young campaign.