Fantasy Baseball Advice

Seattle Mariners 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.

Four months ago, a torn tendon behind his right knee shut Jose Reyes down for the entire season.  That’s the good news.  In an attempt to return to a team that has been out of the playoff picture since July, Reyes tore his hamstring this week as he ran the bases.  His season is finally, completely, officially over.  Sure, it wouldn’t been nice to see him steal 65 bases and for the Mets to win 25 and a half games in the last three days of the season, but maybe trying to get him back for the last weekend of the season wasn’t the best idea.  Now his 2010 is going to be of the “Is he finally healthy?” variety rather than the “He’s finally healthy” variety.  Obviously more will be known as we get closer to next season.  I’m sure February Grey is preparing his status report as we speak.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 16 Ks.  Probably should’ve been the lead today, but I felt like ranting on the Mets.  You’ll forgive me.  Take out your Benihana Buddhas and pray that next March your leaguemates look at Nolasco’s 5.06 ERA and pass on him.   Then flip a shrimp tail into your hat.

Brendan Donnelly – Got the save by picking off a runner.  Leo Nunez probably would’ve been fine if it wasn’t for some porous defense behind him.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Extremely hard to argue with the season Vazquez had.  I mean, you can argue with it, but you’d be screaming at a bunch of stats on a piece of paper and that’s just silly.

Charlie Morton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks.  A four run lead is obviously more comfortable than an 11-1 lead that John Russell yanked Zach Duke from the other day.  When you figure it out, let me know because I’m baffled.

Ryan Doumit – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 3 Runs and a HR yesterday in the nightcap.  His nightcap had stripes and a little fuzzy ball on the end of it.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Ricciardi can now trade Halladay for the Taj Mahal.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.   On July 28th, he had a 5.17 ERA.  He now has a 3.84.  August and September, he had a combined 2.00 ERA.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-4 with a steal yesterday.  He has 8 homers and 10 steals in 38 games.  Charades time!  I’m making a tree shape… Has fronds… Palm! Right!  Sideshow Bob! No, wait a second.  I’m making a diving motion near the palm tree… We’re in a desert…  Mirage! Yes!  That’s Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs is the Mirage casino where Siegfried and Roy used to perform? No.  Forget it.

Justin Masterson – 9 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Wow, were there any poor pitching performances yesterday?  (This is what you get when teams don’t play their first-stringers.  This is also why H2H is kinda lacking.)

Carl Pavano – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ah, yes.  There’s a poor performance.  Mussina always said Pavano’s got no heart.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-3 as he hit his 31st homer yesterday.  He has an outside chance at .300.  Incredible.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5 with a homer.  He has 270 at-bats, 13 homers and 16 steals.  In 300 at-bats, Beltran has 10 homers and 11 steals.

Hiroki Kuroda – Scratched from Saturday’s start.  Kershaw will fill in for him.  Should be the Rockies B lineup, may not be a bad start to gamble on.

Corey Hart – Probably done for the year with two fractured fingers.  No word if he hurt himself by bumping into something while wearing his stupid sunglasses at night.

Casey McGehee – 2-for-5, HR yesterday.  He has 16 homers in 345 at-bats.  He’ll have 2nd base eligibility next year.  Cust kayin’.

B.J. Upton – Two steals yesterday.  No one’s going to argue that the .238 average is a travesty, but he has 10 homers and 41 steals in only 140 games.  I’m buying for next year.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 0 ER.  C’mon, you’re digging the HodgePadres just a bit, right?

Brad Penny – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  When I say NL, you say West.  NL… West… NL… West…  You got it.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Ah, well, here’s to him being a sleeper again next year I guess.

Adam Moore – Hit his first homer of his career.  He’s considered by many as the Mariners catcher of the future.  So that means he’ll diddle himself in the minors for three years, get called up, be given no real opportunity then get sent away in a deal with the Pirates for some futility infielder.

Jamie Moyer – Out for the season/playoffs with torn muscles in his groin and abdomen.  I told you to let the kids move the sofa!

Joba Chamberlain – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Talk about someone who fantasy owners will have no idea what to do with next year.

J.R. Towles – 2 HRs yesterday.  About 18 months too late for most.

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  As I was skimming the boxscores to do this roundup, I saw F. Carmona and I was like, “You got that right ESPN!”