Who was actually good…

Last time, I used ADP data and player values to determine Kyle Lohse was the most under-drafted player of the last five years. Turns out, there are some assumptions in the calculation that could be tweaked, and the result could be a totally different most under-drafted player. Go figure! The methodology was to take the difference between a player’s preseason ADP and his end-of-season rank to determine  “undervalued-ness”. This time we’re still going to take the difference, but it’ll be between the square root of his ADP and the square root of his EOS rank.

Why the square rooting? The reason is to give more weight to better players, which square rooting accomplishes.

For reference, here’s the list from last time (that won one lucky man a Razzball T-Shirt):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

What has become tradition over the past several years, I’ve been pumping bold predictions, like, well, insert your own mom joke here. I’ve even done them over on the Fantasy Football side of things. Speaking of which, don’t forget, shameless plug alert, Fantasy Football is coming! [Insert another mom joke here.] So since this is my little corner here on the baseball side of things, and seeing as how we’re near the All-Star break, what is tacitly known as the half-time marker of the season, I thought it’d be nice to check out how badly my predictions look now, and estimate how much crow I’ll have to eat by season’s end. Join me? (I meant the post. Not eating the crow. Unless you like eating crow. Then here’s some salt. Just dump it all over.)

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Grey pointed this out in yesterday’s recap, but I feel it deserves some special attention here: Ruin Tomorrow Jr. has come out and said that Cesar Hernandez has wrestled the starting second base position away from Chase Utley in Philadelphia. While Utley is being shamed, which is a bummer way to close out a stellar career, the upside here is that we get to see more of Cesar. Cesar has been leading off or hitting second for the anemic Phillies lineup, with ridiculous success. In the past two weeks, Cesar is 26-for-58 with 9 steals and a .508 OBP (1.025 OPS). Yeesh! Cesar has been benefitting from an inflated .535 BABIP and will certainly fall to earth, but the speed should help soften the descent. I don’t think Cesar is the next Dee Gordon, but Gordon-lite? Sure. Cesar could post an OBP in the neighborhood of .340 over a full season with 35 steals, based on his minor league track record.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Last week Grey had the great idea to put my ADP treasure trove of data to good use, and ask people which player they thought has been the most under-drafted over the past five years (2010-14). Who put up good numbers year after year and still was not given the benefit of the doubt?

We got lots of guesses, but only one person got the right answer. Who is this person and which player did they guess? Scroll down to go straight to the destination, or you can first relive some of the journey that got me to the answer…

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You can think whatever you want about Juan Uribe. I don’t care what anyone thinks, he is one of the most unique players in baseball. A classic character from yesteryear. He has to be a latin 50. Have you seen a pic of him? His player page said 36… looks more like 56. But I ain’t hatin’. Have you seen how this pimp rolls? He works that cardigan harder than no other! To elevate his pimptatude even more is his love of slapping bones, which from what I hear is his clubhouse racket. Ryu looks locked in, kinda like the way he pitches. He must of been pissed when they traded Uribe since I heard they are boys. Enough about what a badass Uribe is off the field, I like him this week and below I’ll go over why. He’s a one of a kind playa’! Before moving on, I couldn’t believe how many songs have “one” in the title. It’s kinda cray. One of my favorites is a cover of a popular band redone by another popular artist and he kills it. And before you think anything, I don’t like the band he covered. I just wanted to put that out there. One more cut from the man with one in the title. Okay, I’m done. I will go back to the misery of having lost Springer and Miggy in the ‘perts league. I’ve been doing heavy doses of the blues, Hank Williams and Johnny Cash. I miss you guys! *wipes tear* Grey dodged a bullet there.

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I love me a hot schmotato almost as much as I love me a hot Latina. [Jay’s Note: I prefer the angry Latina.] Yes, it is true, I love Latin women more than fantasy baseball, except this week, when I love me some Eddie Rosario. He’s been a warming hitter looking primed to have a break out sooner than later, and I’m betting my money on this week. I know he has nothing to do with Rosario Dawson but I’ll take any chance to look at her pics and this beautiful gif (I couldn’t put that in the article for fear Jay would of removed it). It’s crazy to think she started her career in Kids and how much of a game changer that flick was. Will Eddie R be a game changer for you this week? I like the chances for that to occur and if you keep reading I will do my best to convince you why I like him, but before I do that, one more Rosario Dawson clip for the road… okay maybe not, the Alexander clip is very NSFW, but you can look it up on your own.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Miguel Sano in the braino! When Sano, got no braino! Oh, sorry, I didn’t hear you come in. Have a seat. Why aren’t you wearing pants? Okay, enough small talk! All right, one more bit of small talk. You ever go to Whole Foods and get something from their salad bar? Their cardboard containers suck! Unless you rip the container apart and lick the bottom, there’s no way to get everything out. Fine, maybe those few grains of quinoa are nothing, but at Whole Foods they cost, like, forty-five cents! Make a container where I don’t lose half my lunch because it gets stuck to the bottom of your stupid containers! Next time, I’m asking for a refund for the piece of lettuce that I can’t get out. No, I’m not cheap at all. Any the hoo! Miguel Sano! Right? Or right-right? Or right-right-right? Here’s what Prospect Mike said, “Sano has elite power with the potential for 35-40 homers at the major league level. He’s right there with fellow third base prospects Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo in that department. Sano most likely won’t hit for a high average, but his fantasy owners won’t mind if he’s launching 30+ bombs. I’d expect him to start the year in the upper minors with a mid or late season call-up a possibility. I like him almost as much as I hate Grey.” What’s with the hostility? PM, of course, is right. Sano has huge power upside. He already has 13 homers in only 61 games in Double-A and Paul Molitor has said, “We’re calling him up soon, and how about that hitting streak of mine? Huh?!” Okay, not exact words, but close. Buxton was already called up, and Sano is next. Like my face after a sun shower, now is a beautiful time for a stash. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

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Donaldson pulling a Jeter? Shades of Armando Galarraga on a play at first in a perfect game? John Gibbons looking like he’s sucking on a lemon but really he just happened to glimpse Brett Cecil? The eighth was thick with humidity. The tension was buzzing from a few bugs that made their way inside the domed stadium as Marco Estrada went for a perfect game. Unfortunately, Donaldson diving into the stands to make the first out in the 8th, when the announcers said he was “pulling a Jeter,” didn’t stop the infield hit on the very next batter when Logan Forsythe just barely beat it out to first. To misquote that previous sentence, it would be the first time a pulling Jeter had to beat it out. Marco ended the game with 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, zero walks and 10 Ks. He’s now allowed three hits in his previous two starts (over 15 2/3 IP). Estrada’s main peccadillo — or ponchadillo, as might be the case with Estrada — is he allows a shizzton of homers and he pitches his home games in Toronto. He’s recently looked untouchable, and I’d stay with the theme and not touch him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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What is not to love about Marlon Byrd? He is one of twenty-one hitters who have 49 homeruns over the past two seasons, and is on pace this year to hit over 20 bombs again. He has been on the DL since June 2nd and just came off this past Friday. I understand the batting average is something to be concerned with, but even if that’s your issue, he is still a donkey (the flying donkey to be exact), and donkeys are useful… and they are really darn useful in fantasy baseball. You rent them like a lady-friend on a trip to Vegas, and if they bring you some winnings, you keep them around a few days to give you a place to rest your hand. Now, like our friends in Vegas, you never keep them around any longer than your trip. Byrd could be a creep-to-own, so be prepared to hold if he comes out of the gate hot. But enough about Byrd, I’ll cover him below. It’s Fathers Day today, and being that my dad introduced me to the Yardbirds, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t add some title-related links into the fold, as I know you enjoy it and I think it irks Jay.

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Are you all like me? Do you spend hours and hours contemplating how to maximize the value out of that last roster spot currently occupied by a fringe player you aren’t sure about?  It’s crazy, we spend all this time leading up to the draft analyzing everyone, then, for me at least, once the season begins, it’s all about contemplating guys on waivers in bottom 20% ownership range.  I know that if I can figure who, among these guys will climb up the ladder in value/ownership, he can either make my team’s season, allow me deal him to someone else in the league for an underperforming proven commodity, or potentially for an elite player as part of a package deal with a medium-value player.  Thus, really understanding the bottom 20% of available players can actually allow you to drastically improve your roster if you know to leverage it.

Please, blog, may I have some more?