Drew Storen had arm discomfort… About two weeks ago. He hasn’t pitched in a game since March 7th and had soreness in his biceps playing catch yesterday. Playing catch? What, the Nats doing a video for Cat’s in the Cradle? He should be pitching, not playing catch. So that’s one red flag. The bigger red flag with a skull and crossbones is obviously soreness from playing catch. That’s awesome for a young reliever who was used a lot last year (75 1/3 IP). Two days ago, Davey Johnson said Storen wasn’t throwing because he had strep throat. So does he have strep arm now? Johnson said he’s not worried about Storen. Davey lies… Davey lies when he cries and implies Storen is still his prize… In all but the shallowest leagues, I’d grab Tyler Clippard, who sounds like a captain in the America’s Cup. For those in deeper leagues or feeling light on saves, I’d grab Lidge. I think Storen will ultimately be fine, but better safe than sorry as they say in the Clichè Hall of Fame, which is located on Main Street in Capital City. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:
Joe Blanton – Report out of Philly is they aren’t motivated to trade Blanton. Sounds like when your garbage piles up and you can’t motivate to throw it out. Maybe we’ll see the Phillies on the new season of Hoarders.
Ryan Howard – Without a walking boot, he took grounders yesterday while sitting on a stool. Maybe he’s hoping he can be the Bill Cosby of 1st baseman. “I was taking ground balls with my manager, Man-yoo-el. Man-yoo-el is great; he gave me chocolate cake!”
Ryan Madson – Threw twenty pitches in a simulated game, then left with pain in his elbow. Wow, and Dusty hasn’t even managed him in a game yet. He just points his toothpick at pitchers’ elbows and they go down. This is starting to sound like Sean Marshall is gonna be the closer for the Reds on Opening Day. Yes, he should be owned too.
Juan Pierre – Has been caught stealing three times in five attempts in the spring. Is there anything sadder than a steals-only guy who can no longer steal? That’s not rhetorical. Really, is there?
Neftali Feliz – Rangers are reporting that Feliz threw with no issues. To incorrectly paraphrase Modest Mouse, this is bad news for people who like bad news about starters they don’t want to own.
Carlos Marmol – Will return on Monday. Will close until July. Will be traded to a contender to be an eighth inning set-up man. It’s a feeling I have.
Mark Reynolds – The O’s are talking about trading him. Looks like the O’s management got the letter in the bottle that was dropped in the Atlantic about thirteen years ago that read, “Go young, you have no chance of competing right now.”
Adam Dunn – Sticking with the newly established donkey theme, Dunn hit two homers yesterday. In 1970, Boog Powell hit 35 homers and won the MVP at the age of 28. The next year, he struggled to hit 22, then 21, 11 and 12 before having one final (Berkman-type resurgence) with 27 homers in 1975, then he was out of baseball at the age of 35. Frank Howard hit 44 homers at 33, then 26 homers the next year and pretty much out of baseball at 35. Greg Luzinski hit 35 homers at the age of 27. At 28, he hit 18. Then nothing for 4 years (had a Berkman resurgence year), then out of baseball at 33. Mo Vaughn went from MVP contender to retired. The history of the big-bellied isn’t great when they start to age. Dunn is 32 years old. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out of baseball at the age of 35. Can Dunn come back and hit 25 homers this year? It’s possible. It’s gonna come with a .240 or lower average. We’re not going to see 40 homers from The Big Donkey again.
Desmond Jennings – Could be out until next week, but he should have plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day. Or as they call it in the Albright household, O’Jennings Day.
Dustin Pedroia – Left the game after being hit on the forearm. He didn’t want to leave, but Bobby Valentine insisted. Then Pedroia nipped at his ankles and Bobby put a cone on his head. Pedroia should be back in a few days.
Kendrys Morales – In his first action with the Angels since his limp-off home run, he got two hits. Small victories are good. They’re especially good for Morales who celebrates big victories like an idiot.
Tyler Greene – The Cards look like they’re going to start Greene at 2nd base and in the leadoff slot (with Furcal somewhere at the bottom of the order). Greene feels like a guy that someone in an NL-Only league will either get lucky drafting or will want to drop by week two.
Tyler Colvin – Hitting near .400 in spring training. That means nothing, as does Colvin in most leagues. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get into the first week of the season and Blake is benched (or injured), Cuddyer goes to 3rd and Colvin is playing the outfield and becomes one of the hottest adds. It’s a thought to stash next to your rolling papers.
Scott Baker – Yesterday, he threw in a minor league game. So he pitched Twins batting practice?
Justin Morneau – 3-for-33 this spring. Feels like old times!
Lorenzo Cain – Now has four homers and is batting .486 in the spring. Cain…Sugar!’s not yet on any of my teams, but I think I might need to reach for him in one league. Bourgeois, you’ve been Marx’d down!
Billy Butler – Hit his third homer of the spring as he has an insane 1.258 OPS over 39 at-bats. They don’t call him Mr. Grapefruit for nothing.
Pedro Alvarez – Ah, my old heartthrob, is playing like there’s a reason why he’s not my new heartthrob. It looks likely M.C. Gehee will be playing 3rd base. The Pirates get the gas face.
Erik Bedard – Named Pirates Opening Day starter. The Pirates then added, “If he’s healthy.”
David Wright – Took BP and said, “I feel about as good as I’d feel, I guess, picking up a bat for the first time in a few weeks. Hopefully it gets better from here result-wise. But just being out there and being able to go through a full day and a full round of batting practice and not feeling anything, that’s pretty good.” I’ll read between the lines for you. ”I was swinging at about 50% against a soft-tossing BP pitcher and I still didn’t really get good swings on the ball. It was sure nice to see the fellas after going through three weeks of testing done by a Met doctor who had a degree from a med school in Guam. I wonder if there’s bears in Guam and if they call them Guamy Bears.”
Jon Niese – Got an offseason nose job because Beltran used to make fun of him. It’s not the first time that a Mets outfielder led to drugs being applied to a Mets pitcher’s nose.
Fausto Carmona – Or as his birth certificate says, Roberto Hernandez Heredia, is scheduled to throw 80 pitches at the Indians’ academy in the Dominican Republic. Afterwards at the academy, Carmona will take classes like “Ethics In Nomenclature and Age” and “Nutrition: It’s a Real Word.”
On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.
Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.
I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:
Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.
Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.
Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.
Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.
Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.
Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.
Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.
Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.
Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.
OBP Sleeper Values
Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.
Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.
Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.
Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.
Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.
Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.
Those that get hurt in OBP leagues
Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.
Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.
Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.
Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.
Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.
Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.
Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.
Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.
The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year. There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later. I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up. Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections. This is actually a new tier. This tier goes from here until Michael Young. I call this tier, “Caterpillars. Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb. Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here. Hey, back already?! Awesome! I missed you. Do you enjoy cuddling?”
7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent. In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly. If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing. Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate. The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day. Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity. “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention! You can put it on the board… We gone!” 2012 Projections: 85/29/100/.290
8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31. If you said 14, you’re a believer. Feel free to draft Berkman. If you said 31, you’re in my camp. We will not be drafting Berkman. If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice. Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls. He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols. That’s enough for me to avoid. 2012 Projections: 80/24/95/.275/3
9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh? Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday! As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?). This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer. (Again, not a science major.) To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year. As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340. Projections: 75/15/90/.310/5
10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun! Can you feel the excitement? It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?! This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Butler. I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.” Is that too specific a reference? You guys and three girl readers get it. See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.
11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities. I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached. Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening. His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping. He will be Joey Votto-lite this year. How lite is the only question. I don’t think it’ll be that lite. BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite? Kirstie Alley. 2012 Projections: 85/25/95/.280/10
12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity. Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity! Store it away for when it’s applicable. Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way. I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it. *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right? 2012 Projections: 80/27/90/.275/3
13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors. Boom goes the dynamite! Or does it? Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him. Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year. Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat. I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games). Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball. And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies. 2012 Projections: 75/22/85/.275/5
14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical. He’s a terrible real baseball player. But real baseball is for real athletes. What kind of crap is that?! Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball! As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him. Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all. 2012 Projections: 75/35/90/.230/7
15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers. Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all! He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck. That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight. Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact? Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP. 2012 Projections: 90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base. In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st. I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected. Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence. But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs. Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!” 2012 Projections: 90/20/100/.300
16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.” Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return. If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing. If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely. I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues. For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury. Yeah, that worked out well. 2012 Projections: 70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)
18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling. Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training. I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors. From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year. Or he could have one setback and miss another three months. 2012 Projections: 85/22/90/.280
19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark. As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time. 3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face. I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third. That’s a huge question mark. If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats. Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy. I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car. 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:
Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list. Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production. Kendrys might return and still be crizzap. Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells. Or he might return and be valuable. You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters. Boom! I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee! 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere. This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats. Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team. You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is. He’s ranked just after Morneau. Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers. Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season. 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman. So much so, I won’t draft him. So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him. He’s not ranked. He’s just blurbed here. He’s too much James Loney for my taste. He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers. Belch called and said burp. 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye. Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.” I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job. It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco. 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year. Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average. Call me crazy. You, “Crazy.” 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year? Look no further! He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter. He is what he is everywhere he plays. I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.” 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done. Correction: Everyone that did not own him last year. I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year. That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!” No, it’s not. There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better. The big-bellied age quickly and poorly. Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year. And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him. 2012 Projections: 55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)
Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo. I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while huffing. It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant. I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him. He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year. If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong. 2012 Projections: 30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)
Brandon Belt – Okay, one more! This is it though. If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis. Around 16 and a half. Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year. The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain. Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together. 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
2011 was supposed to be a big year for Shin-Soo Choo — he was coming off his 2nd straight 20-20 season, his looming military service requirement to the Korean government was in the rearview mirror and he was just entering his prime age. Many (including yours truly) predicted a true breakout, and drafted him as an OF1. The statline that ensued packed about as much punch as Ralph Wiggum’s love life. Choo started the season in a horrendous slump before being caught for a DUI, and from there his slump spiraled out of control. Finally and mercifully his season hit rock bottom when a thumb injury sidelined him for a long period of time. Hailing from a culture that holds honor and duty in very high esteem, it would be foolish to say that the distraction of the DUI was not at least partly to blame for his first half struggles.
The story takes a positive turn after that, as Choo successfully and uneventfully rehabbed from his injury and returned in the second half. The results were enough to remind owners of why they spent a high draft pick. He flexed his 20-20 skillset, hitting 3 homeruns and stealing 4 bags in August to go along with an otherworldly .348 batting average. This resurgence was ultimately cut short when Choo fell victim to “the year of the oblique,” straining the pesky muscle and ending his season prematurely. When evaluating Choo for early 2012 drafts, I find myself largely ignoring his abysmal first half 2011 and looking to that solid month of August. In doing so I am trusting that the problems were largely between the ears and that he put them in the past in the 2nd half and will be fine for this season. His ADP currently sits in the 70s, which is a pretty sizeable value for a true 5 category threat with a proven floor of production.
While we are on the subject of toolsy outfielders, I may be in the minority but I’m buying Carl Crawford this year. Yes, last year was about as ugly as it gets, and yes he still will probably be relegated to hitting in a less-than-advantageous spot in Boston’s lineup in 2012. These rather unsavory facts aside, I think a pretty convincing reason can be made to draft Crawford at his current ADP (mid-late 3rd round). At a glance his paltry 11 homeruns look bad, but consider that his career average for homeruns in a season sits somewhere around 15. Additionally, his 2011 ISO is actually HIGHER than his career ISO. Recall that you are NOT drafting Crawford for his power. You drafted him because he is a speedster that hits double digit home runs. He hit that power mark last year, and will continue to do that going forward.
Since power is not Crawford’s game the bigger issue was obviously his inexplicable drop in steals from 47 in 2010 to 18 in 2011. The aforementioned position in the lineup certainly played a part, as did nagging injuries, but in my opinion the largest single factor in this drop was his utilization. I really think that the Red Sox put the brakes on his game. This year, sweeping changes have been made to the Red Sox in both the front office and managerial positions. Since they have made such a huge investment in Crawford, they will really have no choice but to turn him loose going forward. This, coupled with an additional year getting used to the “pressure” environment in Boston, makes me bullish on Crawford this year.
Some more quick busts turned 2012 fantasy baseball value picks:
Nick Swisher – Still hitting in a bandbox in a great lineup. Yankees do not have better options anyway.
Kevin Youkilis – GGOW (Greek God of Walks) getting drafted in the 6th round at a weak 3B position? Yes, please.
Ike Davis – The latest casualty to the Mets’ training staff looks like a fine value at the end of drafts this year. Keeping with our Simpsons theme, pretty sure Dr. Nick could do a better job than the scrubs treating these injuries.
Brandon Belt – Maybe we were a year early on the hype train? At a round 15 price tag, I’ll pay to find out.
Andre Ethier – No, we haven’t forgotten about you. If your knee is finally right you might win some leagues as a flier OF3.
Jaime Garcia – Not really a “bust,” but HUGE home/road splits kept him from realizing true potential. Maybe he’s afraid of airplanes? Could be huge if he figures out how to pitch on the road.
Jose Tabata – Bloom is off the rose a bit with nagging injuries, but Shane Victorino upside hasn’t gone anywhere.
Adam Dunn – There’s not much more that can be said about his 2011. Hopefully it really was Ozzie Guillen that was the problem and he could go back to hitting 40 HRs for his fantasy owners. Still hits in a favorable environment.
Jered Weaver will not make his final start of the year because he doesn’t care about your H2H team. Weaver ends the season with a line of 18-8/2.41/1.01/198. If you throw out three bad starts, his ERA would’ve been 1.72 in 220 innings, but if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts no one would ever leave the bathroom. Verlander’s gonna win the Cy Young, shizz is foregone. Put it in an envelope and hand it to your mail carrier so he can steam it open and check it for cash. Either way, let’s look at what Weaver did this year. Mullet over, if you will. Weaver was better last year. Blunt is as blunt does right there. His K-rate, xFIP and hair were all better. His K-rate this year was right in line with past rates, if you exclude 2010. For now, last year looks like the outlier for Ks. Also, batters made contact with his pitches inside the strike zone at a higher rate than last year and hitters weren’t as fooled by pitches outside the strike zone. In the end, he’s not going to be terrible in 2012; it’s just a repeat of 2011 seems unlikely, unless Superman circles the earth a few hundred times. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Ryan Zimmerman – Sitting out the last two games with a sore hamstring. What’s this, the last few days of senior year and he’s already going to his safety school? Play the games!
Alex Gonzalez – Left the game after aggravating his calf. That’s the last time he says he likes his hamstring better.
Jose Reyes – 3-for-6 as he hit two homers yesterday. That hit the spot in one of my leagues. It was like the Kool-Aid man crashing through your wall and yelling “Oh, yeah!” then spackling the hole over because no one wants a giant hole in their wall.
Chris Capuano – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks. Ended the season with a 4.55 ERA. Crapuano was pretttay, pretttay mediocre.
Jeanmar Gomez – 4 2/3 IP, 8 ER. Watching this game yesterday I felt like everyone screaming at Rocky to throw in the towel to save Apollo’s life. Jesus effin’ Montero, they had to let Gomez give up eight earned with no lifeline? Throw him a freakin’ bone and pull him from the G-d damn game! Fantasy baseball: When real life stress isn’t enough.
Asdrubal Cabrera – Done for the year. Back date this to last Thursday when I thought he was done for the year.
Prince Fielder – 3-for-3, 5 RBIs and 3 homers. Then the soon-to-be free agent, Prince, changed his name to a symbol — $.
Howie Kendrick – Left the game with a sprained wrist. He’s day-to–Oh, yeah, today’s the last day. Didn’t the season just start? I’m sad.
Matt Joyce – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 19th homer. Member when he was the meow’s cat early in the season? Oh, those were the days. It was warm out! You had more hair! Okay, now for another friendly reminder — grab everyone on the Braves, Cardinals, Rays and Red Sox. If there’s a one game playoff, you want to be the one with these guys, not the schmohawk you’re trying to beat.
Matt Holliday – Pulled from the game because of his injured middle finger. Some of his owners might have a healthy middle finger for him.
Allen Craig – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and a homer as he replaced Holliday. Yeah, I’d even grab Craig for that potential one day playoff game.
Tyler Flowers – Hit two homers in the last two games. It’s too late for this year, but please, White Sox, do the right thing and give him a chance to play. I’m begging here.
Adam Dunn – 0-for-3 with 3 Ks, bringing his average to .159. Elias Sports Bureau said there’s never been a player that hit less than half his weight until Adam Dunn. Actually, they didn’t say that, but something that was heard around the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “Terry, in Human Resources, broke the previous record of seventeen with how many times someone’s blamed a fart on a ceiling fan.”
Justin Upton – After being hit in the head by a pitch on Sunday, he returned to the lineup yesterday and was hit in the face by a fly ball. In the playoffs, Upton will wear a glove on his head.
Jarrod Parker – 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 1 K. Okay, start the hype machine for next year.
Mike Morse – For his 30th homer on Monday, Livan bought him a bottle of Cristal. Yesterday, Morse hit his 31st homer. For that, Livan gave him a lap dance.
Mike Napoli – Two homers yesterday vs. his old club, and specifically his old manager who never played him. That revenge had to feel sweet for Napoli. Remember, never get involved in a land war in Asia and never go against Napoli when pride is on the line. He takes 28 homers, and even more remarkably, a .317 average into the final game of the season.
Ian Kinsler – 3-for-5 with a slam & legs to finally get him to 30/30. This quest for 30/30 reminded me of an actor doing a movie for a paycheck. 30/30 is Kinsler’s Little Fockers.
Josh Willingham – 1-for-4, 3 RBIs and a home run. That gives him 29 homers and 98 RBIs on the year. This blew Rudy’s mind yesterday on IM. “You see Willingham’s almost at 30/100?” “Yeah, I saw.” “I have nothing else to say about that.” “Neither do I.”
Ryan Lavarnway – With Salty and Varitek banged up, Lavarnway got the start and hit two homers yesterday. Similarly to Tyler Flowers, I’d love to see Lavarnway get a starting job next year. Do it for all of Ryan’s fans. You know, the Lavarnwayians. Who are not related to Damon, Marlon, Kim, Keenan, Elvira, Michael, Kyla, Bella, Shawn, Damien (have I mentioned Damien yet?), Daphne, Jolie, Bella, Nadia, Shawn Howell, Chaunté and Craig.
Marco Scutaro – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs, home run, hitting near .400 in September. What-what?! Actually the what-what was what I just mentioned.
Chris Parmelee – 2-for-4 with a homer and in the same game Tosoni hit a grand slam. Parmelee and Tosoni? Sounds like rejected cast members of The Jersey Shore.
Delmon Young – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 12th homer. I feel like every year drafting Delmon is like falling for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.
Anthony Bass – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks. Sweet… if I didn’t start Jeanmar and Blake Beavan.
Javier Vazquez – 9 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks. He only pitched this well to end the season because I dropped him in all of my leagues three months ago. Oh, and I blame Steve Bartman too.
Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-3 with his 40th steal. I’m in the process of writing up top 20 recaps that will be on the site next week. You wanna know one guy that really surprised me? Steve Lombardozzi. No, Random Italicized Voice, not Steve Lombardozzi. Emilio Bonifacio. Didn’t realize what a great year he ended up having. I mean, I should. I only wrote 1500 words a day about fantasy baseball for the last 6 months. Imagine I wrote all of that in a spiral notebook. You’d have me committed. It’s all about the medium!
Jimmy Rollins – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs, 2 runs and a slam & legs. Now has 16 homers and 30 steals. You know, you could’ve done worse at shortstop. Hanley comes to mind. He would’ve been worse. On a side note, I wonder if the Phils don’t want the Braves in the playoffs or they’re just doing the honorable thing by playing their regulars. I’m guessing it’s the latter.
Joe Blanton – Will start the season finale for the Phillies, which will set up their rotation perfectly for Blanton to return to pitch Game 6 of the NLDS.
