Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve added average draft position (ADP) from MockDraftCentral.com to the 5×5 10/12/14/16 Team Point Shares tables. (NL-only Point Shares are also up for 8, 10, and 12 Team.)

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose Reyes.  If he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

- A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
- Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
- Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
- Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
- Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
- Aramis – Anytime after #65
- M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
- Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)

I was talking to Woody Harrelson about what’s happening with the Blue Jays from a fantasy perspective.  He said, “I like their 2nd baseman.  Aaron um…um….”  I said, “I know his name.  It’s surely…”  He said, “Hemp!” I said “Hill.”  Fail.  Cousin Oliver steps up to the schmohawk dunk tank and down goes Aaron Hill.  His ADP is 46.  I have him at 59.  That’s pretty close.  Close like asking for Fluff and getting Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme.  You settle for Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme, I mourn you.  I’m a Native American in a 70’s commercial watching you litter.  To get to an ADP of 46, there’s people drafting him as high as 25.  This better not be any of youse.  Don’t make me come back there!   I have Hill’s line at 85/24/80/.280/5; James has 78/20/76/.283/5; CHONE has 78/21/75/.282/4; Marcel has 76/21/75/.281/6; Point Shares has him ranked at 110 and just around average, earning -.03 points.  I’m actually the most optimistic and I’m telling you he’s overrated.  Crimey a river!  In a perfect world, Aaron Hill can hit 36 homers.  Last year was a perfect world, Costner.  His HR/FB ratio last year was 14.9%.  The three years before that were 2.4%, 8.6% and 3.6%.  You don’t have to have a BS degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston to see 14.9% is a bit out of whack.  And by bit, I mean a lot.  So 25 homers seems like Hill’s peak.  What about his speed?

He doesn’t really have any.  On Bill James’s Speed Score where the average is 5.0, Hill’s at 3.2.  Behind such tug boats as Mark Teixeira, Glass Chipper and Scott Rolen.  All right, but you can’t just ignore those 108 RBIs he had last year.  Maybe you can.  He hit behind a career year from Marco Scutaro who had a .379 OBP in 680 plate appearances.  Speaking of which, Aaron Hill had the most plate appearances in the major leagues last year.  Number one.  As in, no one was in front of him number one.  You have to take that many plate appearances with a grain of salt.  In 2010, Hill will be hitting behind who?  John Buck?  Jose Bautista?  Yeah, there goes those RBIs.  People are drafting him around the same time as Justin Morneau (30/100/.290) and Curtis Granderson (30/20)… Okay, different positions.  But how are people drafting him at the same time as Cano’s 90/27/100/.315/5?  Take a 2nd baseman later (Ian Stewart, Scott Sizemore, Kelly Johnson) instead of reaching for Aaron Hill.  He’s overrated.

We continue our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  2nd base is an odd duck.  Shortstops have speed.  You can find speed in the outfield.  There’s even some legitimate speed at 3rd base.  All of these 2nd basemen must have grown up watching Bret Boone and Jeff Kent because you’re more likely to find power at 2nd base than speed. Sure, there’s Brian Roberts, but he’s 32 years old and only stole 30 bases last year.  I want a 40 steal 2nd baseman.  Eh, maybe it’s just me.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Chase Utley – In the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post is Utley’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – In the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post is Kinsler’s projections.

3. Brandon Phillips – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cano.  I call this tier, “Locks for certain stats.”  After just missing a 20/20 season in 2006, Phillips has put up one for three straight years.  Without a whole lot of luck, he’s not going to hit 30 homers and 30 steals seems out of his reach, but you’re kicking a 20/20 season out of bed from your 2nd baseman?  Please.  Phillips is a poor man’s Ian Kinsler.  2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22

4. Brian Roberts – I haven’t been a fan of Roberts for the last two years because of his inconsistency.  Were you paying for a 50 steal guy?  A 40 steal guy? A 30 steal guy?  A 18 homer guy?  A 10 homer guy?  Finally, I feel like Roberts has figured out who he is (or I have).  A 12-15 homer guy with 30 steal speed.  There’s value knowing what you’re going to get and getting what you’re going to get… Hmm… That made sense in my head.  2010 Projections:  105/13/75/.285/30

5. Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia feels a lot less overrated this year than going into 2009, so there’s a chance that I might end up with him on a team, but it’s still not likely when I see some people rank him above Roberts and Phillips.  Roberts is 12-15 homers and 30 steals, Phillips is 20-plus homers, 20-plus steals and Pedroia is a 15/15 guy with great Runs.  Personally, I’ll take 20/20 or 15/30 over 15/15 every day of the week and twice on Muesday.  2010 Projections:  110/15/70/.305/15

6. Robinson Cano – Cano could be outproduced by Aaron Hill, but I ranked them in this order because I trust Cano more.  With Cano going to be the magical 27 years old in 2010 when power tends to peak, I hope Cano can pull a high-20s homer season out of his hat.  2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5

7. Aaron Hill – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Zobrist.  I call this tier, “These 2nd basemen are being drafted like they’re locks, but I don’t think they are.”  I ranked Hill lower than most because I don’t believe the 36 homers he hit last year.  Seems like a reach for him to do it again.  There’s a good possibility I write an entire overrated post for Aaron Hill.  As I said in previous rankings posts, I look at other projections.  So, CBS has Aaron Hill down for 103/36/106/.287/8 in 2010.  Since last year he had a line of 103/36/108/.286/6, I’m assuming they think he’s going to be exactly the same minus one extra base hit that drove in two.  Say what you want about ESPN, Yahoo, etc, but CBS is by far the worst fantasy advice.  I think they are so bad they actually get some lenience from people because no one actually takes them seriously.  2010 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/5

8. Ben Zobrist – I know, it’s Zorilla!  How dare I!  Why do I have to hate on guys that have career years?  He’s ranked far below where he should be considering his numbers last year.  His position eligibility does give him value.  Shoot, I’d draft Lyle Overbay if you gave him shortstop eligibility.  Zobrist’s homers don’t seem as fluky as they might appear.  He maintained a 17.5 HR/FB in 2009 and a 17.4 HR/FB in 2008.  Granted, that was a smaller sample size.  So he may look like David Eckstein, but the only thing they have in common is neither is Jewish though their names sound like they are.  Zobrist’s average seems out there; he looks closer to a .270 hitter.  He was a utility man coming into 2009 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he left 2010 back in that role.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12

9. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Lopez.  I call this tier, “These guys are okay, but they might give you fits of boredom.”  Uggla hasn’t had a full month of at-bats over a .300 average since May of 2008 when he hit .348.  That pretty much tells you all you need to know.  2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3

10. Jose Lopez – He’s okay on your team.  He’ll work.  But it’s like masturbating to The Golden Girls.  It’ll get the job done, but why not switch the channel?  2010 Projections:  75/22/90/.275/3

11. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier starts and ends here.  I call this tier, “The one guy I’d really like to have at 2nd base.”  I love Stewart this year.  First guy I feel like can completely outproduce his ranking.  If I could’ve ranked Stewart 3rd overall without having to give back my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, I would’ve.  Stewart feels like the Mark Reynolds of this year.  (That doesn’t mean a 45/20 line.  It doesn’t mean a guarantee.  Remember Reynolds looked like he was splitting time with Chad Tracy in the preseason last year.  It means a line like I thought Reynolds capable of in the preseason last year, around 30/12.)  Need I say more?  If you said yes, then proceed to the Ian Stewart Sleeper post-a-ma-whosie-whatsies.  2010 Projections:  85/29/100/.260/10

12. Asdrubal Cabrera – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Weeks.  I call this tier, “This is your last chance to even try for something from your 2nd baseman.  With varying degrees of something.”  Asdrubal is a peak of 12 homers and 25 steals, while Barmes hit 23 homers last year with 12 steals.  So why is Asdrubal above Barmes? Good question, random italicized voice.  Barmes’s 23 homers last year looks fluky, while Asdrubal can steal 25 pretty easily.  Barmes’s over/under for homers is 15, while Asdrubal’s over/under for steals is at 20.  2010 Projections:  95/8/65/.300/20

13. Clint Barmes -  See Asdrubal Cabrera or 1/10th of an inch above.  2010 Projections:  65/15/75/.255/12

14. Rickie Weeks – He’s a lock for 20/20 but he needs 150 games.  That “but” is J. Lo-sized.  2010 Projections:  75/17/55/.255/15 in 120 games.

15. Howie Kendrick – This is a new tier.  This tier ends at Lopez.  I call this tier, “People will draft these guys, but I’m passing.” Frankly, I wouldn’t draft Kendrick with your team.  The upside isn’t interesting enough to me to warrant the gamble.  For instance, the best case scenario has him giving a Pedroia-type year.  Eh, it’s okay, but you’d be surprised how bored you get with a guy who’s offering 12/12.  2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12

16. Casey McGehee – McGehee screams of a guy that is drafted and ends up on waivers by June.  His minor league numbers are utility man-ish.  He’s a cold month away from yielding to Mat Gamel, who is legit minus his glove.  And McGehee has no speed whatsoever.  He’s definitely more interesting at 2nd base than 3rd, but I’m passing.  2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.280

17. Placido Polanco – Don’t overestimate Crapolanco’s move to Philly.  He’s the definition of yawnstipating.  Literally.  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/10

18. Felipe Lopez – The FeLopezian might be capable of 20/20, but it’s more likely going to be 10/10.  2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.285/10

19. Scott Sizemore – This is the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end.  I call this tier, “Upside, snitches.”  As I’ve been saying for as long as I can remember.  If you’re late in the draft and you need a MI, take a flier on upside.  You’re probably going to drop one of these guys to waivers anyway, so you may as well take a shot on someone that can outproduce their oudraft spot.  I could’ve put Freddy Sanchez, Callaspo or Getz here (in that order), but what fun are those schmohawks?  re: Sizemore; been here, talked about this: Scott Sizemore fantasy post.  2010 Projections:  80/14/70/.275/16

20. Eric Young Jr. – Young can steal 40 bases in 2010.  Just give him the job.  Please.  Oh, and if he gets the job, it’ll play havoc on Barmes’s projections or Fowler’s or CarGo’s…  There’s only so much upside for one team.  2010 Projections:  65/1/40/.290/30

There’s a lot of names after the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, but these two stand out:

Kelly Johnson – Already went over my excitement for  Kelly Johnson on the Diamondbacks. I ranked him this far down because I wanted to highlight him.  If I didn’t want to highlight him, I would’ve ranked him above Kendrick, but who reads the middle of these godforsaken posts?  Not me!  2010 Projections:  85/15/65/.270/10

Sean Rodriguez – Iwamura was sent to the 247th largest baseball market, Pittsburgh (which ranked just ahead of Nairobi).  Now Sean Rodriguez has a chance to see playing time.  Zobrist should start at 2nd base, but he can play everywhere, so Rodriguez could work into the mix.  Outside of deep leagues, you’re going to want to make sure Rodriguez has playing time before getting crazy with yourself and drafting him, but if he does have an every day job… 2010 Projections:  65/20/75/.250/5 in 400 ABs.

We already went over the top 20 catchers for 2009 and the top 20 1st first basemen for 2009.  Today, it’s all about the top 20 2nd basemen.  The 2nd basemen pool is shallow (not as kiddie-sized as the shortstops, but we’ll get to them in the next post).  Because of this shallowivity (Made Up Word Of The Day!), the 2nd basemen rankings can be split up into two tiers.  The guys you want and the tomato-tomahto guys.  The Guys You Want’s names kinda give them away.  The Tomato-Tomahto Guys are a whole group of 2nd basemen that are so close to each other in rank, it really didn’t matter which one of them you owned.  At one time or another during the season, you probably dropped one of the Tomato-Tomahtos for a different Tomato-Tomahto.  Everyone probably has one Tomato-Tomahto guy that they hated during the season.  I have a few.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Chase Utley – He was my choice for NL MVP in the preseason.  He’s going to be my 2010 NL MVP preseason selection.  Probably will be my 2011 preseason NL MVP choice and maybe my pick in 2012.  Then, one day when Pujols is not only hurt, but plays hurt, Utley will win it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  105/29/105/.295/10, Final Numbers: 112/31/93/.282/23

2. Aaron Hill – Let’s get it out of the way upfront, there was some surprises in the 2nd basemen rankings.  We (or you) can sit there and say to yourself, “Gadzooks, Grey did a terrible job of ranking the 2nd basemen.”  First, who says gadzooks?  Are you in a comic strip?  Second, no one ranked Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Marco Scutaro, Adam Kennedy et al anywhere near the top fifteen coming into the season.  There’s the top guys and there’s the bottom guys at MI.  This is why I usually punt the middle and avoid middle infielders between rounds 7 and 15.  Either get a top one, or ignore and take a flier later.  More will be said on this in the offseason.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  103/36/108/.286/6

3. Robinson Cano -  Someone has a terrific season the previous year (Pedroia, Hamilton) and I pulled back for 2009.  A player craps the bed in the previous season (Robinson Cano) and I got excited about them for 2009.  This is the story of my life with women too.  Kick me in the nads and I’ll buy you steel-tipped boots.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  80/18/85/.310/3, Final Numbers:  103/25/85/.320/5

4. Brian Roberts – My predicted numbers weren’t that far off from where he ended up.  Didn’t like him in April of 2008, didn’t like him in April of 2009, I think I might like him a bit more in 2010 because he’s finally become predictable.  Predictable is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30, Final Numbers:  110/16/79/.283/30

5. Ben Zobrist – Almost surprising as his season is his Christian faith (come on, his name is screaming for a mohel).  Everyone knows the good, so let’s look at the glass half empty.  17/52 and 11 steals with a .297 average in the 1st half.  In the 2nd half, 10/39 in 9 more at-bats.  Not terrible, just not as good.  His eligibility definitely helped offset the regression.   Nevertheless, it was there.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  91/27/91/.297/17

6. Ian Kinsler – It’s great to finally see what he’s capable of over an entire season.  He’s a liability on average, plus speed and nearly as solid as Utley elsewhere.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  110/23/80/.280/25, Final Numbers:  101/31/86/.253/31

7. Dustin Pedroia – This was the season I was worried about when I advised people (that’s you!) to stay away from Pedrioa.  Was 2009 a terrible season?  No, I never thought for one second he’d be terrible.  I just didn’t buy into him as a 2nd round pick and a repeat of his MVP season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15, Final Numbers:  115/15/72/.296/20

8. Brandon Phillips – For some reason, no one seems to trust Phillips.  20/20 for three seasons straight and he gets no respect.  Whatevs, I’ll keep owning him since no one else wants to.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25, Final Numbers:  78/20/98/.276/20

9. Asdrubal Cabrera – With a swift kick to the nuts, the tomato-tomahto portion of the program begins.  It didn’t really matter which of these guys you owned, they were all productive at some points during the season and yawnstipating at other times.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.275/10, Final Numbers:  81/6/68/.308/17

10. Marco Scutaro – If you would’ve told me in February there would be two Blue Jay 2nd basemen in the top 10, I would’ve punched you in the mouth.  MAR…co… SCUT…aro… had a decent season for a guy that probably wasn’t even owned in your league for a third of the season and returned from Asia with pasta.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Gene Rayburn, “2nd base is so shallow…”  You, “How shallow is it?”  Kennedy had only a good May and September and he’s ranked 11th overall.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Felipe Lopez -  You would think a guy whose ADP was 213 and who is ranked this high would have been a huge success.  You’d be dead wrong.  So many times I wanted to cut the Fe-Lopezian tubes, then he’d go and have a 1-for-3 game with 1 Run and I’d hold him.  Ugh, he had one of the more frustrating seasons.  How does he only steal 6 bases all year?!  Ryan Howard stole 8 bases!  Preseason Unranked, but he did make the Cheap Alternatives post, Final Numbers:  88/9/57/.310/6

13. Jose Lopez – I usually go with speed at MI, but, if you needed power there, J. Lo turned in a perfectly respectable season.  I would’ve taken his season over F. Lo any day of the week and twice on Muesday.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/15/85/.280/5, Final Numbers:  69/25/96/.272/3

14. Alexei Ramirez – When you’re ranked within sneezing distance of Luis Castillo, I hope you get Swine Flu.  Ramirez had one good month (May, 7 homers, 2 steals while batting .283) and 4 yawnstipating months.  How does he only steal 4 bases from June 19th on?  I think I’ve found my first candidate of the offseason that I won’t be drafting on any teams in 2010.  No matter what stories come out of spring training. Alexei has never seen the ball this well before! Alexei gained 120 of muscle mass! Alexei can go to hell.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/15/68/.277/14

15. Maicer Izturis – Maicer, what goes on?  Maicer…  It’s funny all the people ending the season at exactly .300 or just over it.  Don’t make me get Vin Scully to recount the story of how Ted Williams started both sides of a doubleheader while sitting on .400 for the season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/8/65/.300/13

16. Alberto Callaspo – I liked him in the preseason, but even with that like, I couldn’t generate the enthusiasm to draft him anywhere.  Let’s face it, his mother barely gets excited about his hitting.  Was also mentioned in that Cheap Alternatives thingamapost, Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Luis Castillo – Please don’t make me say anything about Castillo.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/1/40/.302/20

18. Placido Polanco – Placido Polanco is Yoda to Callaspo’s Luke.  Can we just call these guys Polancallaspo?  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  90/7/55/.310/7, Final Numbers:  82/10/72/.285/7

19. Dan Uggla – Even with how awful this list is, Aramis Ramirez, with 2nd base eligibility, would not have made this list.  Yes, 2nd base was deeper than 3rd base.  Bring back steroids!  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5, Final Numbers:  84/31/90/.243/2

20. Clint Barmes – This is one of my big problems with the ESPN Player Rater (this is where these rankings come from; makes it less subjective).  I’d rank Barmes as the last guy you’d want and above all the tomato-tomahtos.  I don’t really mind the average, but his homers and steals were valuable.  This is how I ended up with Mark Reynolds on all my teams in 2009 and how I will probably have Barmes on some 2010 teams.  (This is not official yet, we’re still recapping.  Barmes needs an everyday job.)  Was ranked 20th as a Shortstop, 2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12, Final Numbers:  69/23/76/.245/12

Before I cover Adam Lind (with words, not a blanket), I want to clear something up about these Thursday keeper posts.  I like Lind, but between him and, say, Hanley, it’s no contest.  I’m talking about potentially marginal keepers here.  Not slam dunks.  I could see some people worrying that Lind may not be able to repeat his 2009 season.  Contraire, Robespierre.  Adam Lind took a while to get going in the majors, but he’s always had this pedigree.  In five seasons of the minors, he had a .380 OBP and a .318 average.  In his fist full season of the majors where he’s actually seemed to be comfortable, he’s headed for a 30/95/.300 season.  Next year, he’ll be 27 and should be able to take a slight step forward.  Think 35/110/.310.  Also, he’s been batting third a lot recently.  If he can get off to a hot start next year like he did this year, he could cement his place in the three hole for the better part of the season, which will help his counting stats.  Have You Lost Your Flippin’ Mind predictions for 2010:  100/35/120/.310.  No steals, which is a shame, and no great shakes on his eligibility, but those numbers aren’t far off from 2nd round-type numbers.  (BTW, you’re reading a fantasy baseball site that alludes to Linda Ronstadt.  Don’t you feel dirty?)  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Aaron Hill – Do I smell a theme? No, that’s lunch.  I mean, the Blue Jays. Ah, yes.  They smell like rotisserie chicken. No, that really is lunch.  Hill will only be 28 at the start of the 2010 season.  As I’ve been saying just about the whole season, I don’t think the 30+ homers this year is a fluke.  At second base, you can do much worse.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate has 15 homer power and 35 steal speed.  Shane Victorino just called and said he wants his stats back.