Fantasy Baseball Advice

Guess what, ya’ll?! New closer in Atlanta. That’s right the Braves lost Peter Moylan to an injury so Manny Acosta takes over until Soriano returns. Soriano is due back soon, but he’s injury-prone so this may seem flippant, but Accardo came out of nowhere to save a lot of games last year. You never know where saves are going to come from, but we know they will be coming from the new (fill-in) Atlanta Braves closer, Manny Acosta. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Alfonso Soriano - Was hurt catching the ball. He didn’t look good at all being helped off the field. Maybe Murton time? I picked up Murton in one NL-Only league, just in case.

Michael Bourn - All he does is steal bases. No, seriously, that’s all he does. Is it me or are there more all-speed, nothing else guys now than ever? Bourn, Gomez, Gathright, Taveras, Pierre, a third of the Giants lineup, etc. It’s a renaissance for speed guys. It’s like someone cracked down on power-enhancing drugs or something. Weird!

Andruw Jones - I said this about three months ago, but he seriously may be retired within three years. He’s lazy, ya’ll.

Erik Bedard - Hits the DL. Yeah, and doodie smells.

Jose Valverde - He was not a reliable closer before last year. Don’t forget about Brocail.

Jair Jurrgens - He walked Willingham on a questionable pitch (who stole his second base of the day!) then Jacobs got a clean double to score one run. Then Willingham inexplicably hit a triple later in the game. Jurrgens looks great so far. I hope people are paying attention. BTW, April 17th is Benihana Thursdays in Marlins Stadium! (I can’t even imagine what this is, but it sounds wonderful. Maybe Alfredo Amezaga flips shrimp tails into his shirt pocket?)

Shawn Chacon - I’m sure glad I have him on my Razzball team. Ugh. Maybe Pineiro can throw a shutout later in the week.

Mark Teixeira - He’s starting slow. Yeah, and doodie still smells.

Derrek Lee - He’s headed for a big year.

Chad Qualls - Might be slowly working his way into the closer role.

Aaron Hill - Could be very valuable to balance out your fifth outfielder who only steals.

Aaron Harang - I know it’s a little consolation because I have him on a few teams too, but the wind was blowing out big time in Wrigley.

Joey Votto - I’m getting the sneaky suspicion that Dusty might actually play him regularly.

Krispie Young - 13 hits, five of which are home runs, with 18 strikeouts for a .228 average. Cust kayin’.

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, - means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets - Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued - with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.

1. Brandon Phillips
.288/107/30/94/32
Not since Soriano have we seen this power and speed combo from 2nd. For the price you probably paid for Phillips, this guy single-handedly won leagues or, at the least, kept owners right in the mix. I know in one of my leagues the owner who had Phillips easily finished five places above where he should have. Then again, he should have finished last, so it’s a small consolation. Imagine if the Indians hadn’t given up on him — Asdrubal who?

2. Chase Utley
.332/104/22/103/9
And he missed a month. Chances are you picked up someone who was able to add to the above stats. For instance, I picked up Iguchi when the Phillies traded for him, so I had .305/18/3/10/5 for 29 games. Respectable numbers to add to Utley’s final totals. For where you had to draft Utely, he didn’t disappoint. What I really like about Utely is his intensity. You never see him dog it up the first base line. If you’re thinking that doesn’t show up in the final stat line, you’re mistaken. Okay, praises sung…

3. Brian Roberts
.290/103/12/57/50
You’re looking at a career year in steals, a total aberration for runs, and a bit low on the home run front. Looking closer: how can a guy steal fifty bases, bat lead-off and barely crack 100 runs? Pretty tough luck there. I usually stay away from Roberts because he’s a total roll of the die. One year he steals like crazy, one year he cracks a bunch of homers, another year he’s a force in average, another year he breaks his arm in seventeen places. If you gambled on him giving you steals this year, you did well.

4. BJ Upton
.300/86/24/82/22
Another difference maker. Chances are you drafted (or picked off waivers) Upton at a extremely low price. Also, with his injury, you probably had someone else culling stats at his position while he was on your DL. So his position’s numbers should be even better. I don’t fully trust him for next year, but we’ll save that for a future blog.

5. Robinson Cano
.306/93/19/97/4
I have to admit. His year surprised me. I thought he might be lying in the dumpster by the All-Star Break because Yankee fans would be so disappointed with him. But Torre stuck with him through the first half swoon, and he turned it around. But the real question is, did you stick with him? I don’t think I would have, probably would have traded him for thirty cents on the dollar.

6. Placido Polanco
.341/105/9/67/7
Everyone know what being yawnstipated is? It’s when you have to yawn, but can’t. Basically, you’re constipated with your yawning. Polanco yawnstipates me. You want to yawn at his numbers, but he manages to do just enough so you can’t yawn. The .341 is the main reason for the yawnstipation. Usually a high average and not much else is a very good yawnstipater.

7. Dan Uggla
.245/113/31/88/2
How does a 2nd basemen that hits 31 homers end up so low on the list? Batting .245 will do it. This is the first guy on the list that was actually a negative in any category. I don’t like negatives in a category. That low of an average can be really difficult to correct with other hitters. Uggla’s other numbers are buoyant; his average is an anchor. Anchors stop fun.

8. Ian Kinsler
.263/96/20/61/23
I liked Kinsler in the beginning of the year. Know what? I still like him. He struggled mightily for about two months after a torrid start, then he was hurt for over a month. If you substituted in someone for when he was struggling and when he was on the DL, you had a tremendous two months from him. He was easily top 3 at 2nd base when he was playing good.

9. Jeff Kent
.302/78/20/79/1
Again, if you took him out when he was hurt or playing hurt, Kent had a decent enough year. I like his numbers in retrospect more than Uggla. (Don’t like negatives in a category.) You didn’t get anything more than you should expect from him at this stage in his career, but you didn’t get less from him either, which helps.

10. Aaron Hill
.291/87/17/78/4
And I like his numbers better than Uggla’s, as well. (Still don’t like negatives in a category. You heard that already? Yeah, you probably did.) Across the board, Hill gave you a little bit of everything. He didn’t win any leagues, but, what’s just as important, he didn’t lose any leagues either.

Some other guys that didn’t make the list, but I actually wouldn’t have minded on my team last year: Kelly Johnson, Freddy, Pedroia, Wigginton, the Kaz. Then for extended periods of times, Orlando Hudson, Weeks, DeRosa and Brendan Harris definitely helped teams. None of these guys hurt your team to the point you couldn’t capture a title. Going into the season last year, lots of experts were saying that 2nd base might be the weakest position ever. Turned out to be a lot of hot air. Not only was 2nd base not all that weak, but you found some very good value in later rounds.