Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s a theorem that says if you gave a monkey a typewriter and an infinite amount of time, it could produce a Shakespearean sonnet.  My question is, what if every monkey with a typewriter writes something more ingenious than anything Shakespeare ever came up with, but since we don’t have monkey brains (entirely), we don’t understand it?  Deep Thoughts with Grey Albright.  As for the theorem, how much monkeying around does it take in Boston to get one Bard?  The Red Sox got the infinity part of the theorem right (Aceves’s ERA and WHIP), and they got what you usually get from a monkey and a typewriter… Crap thrown against a wall.  Mark Melancon’s ERA is 36.00 and WHIP is 5.00, which looks downright beautiful compared to Alfredo Aceves’s ERA and WHIP which are just letters — INF, and if you owned Aceves for fantasy you know the INF stands for I am Now F***ed.  To be, or not to be:  the real question is who will close for the Red Sox?  Bobby Valentine hinted they might go to Daniel Bard.  Valentine doth protest too much, methinks!  Of course, Bard should be the closer.  You mean the one pitcher with the stuff to close that is now in the rotation that doesn’t have starter stuff?  Over the last three years, Bard has the third most Holds, 213 Ks and 1.06 WHIP in 197 innings.  But no Holds, Bard, now.  Thine own self be true, and thine self is a closer.  Give him saves.  In the meanwhile, trattorias in Boston’s North End are adding Fedupfitzy Alfredo to their specials.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Clay Buchholz – 4 IP, 7 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  This Tigers/Red Sox series lived up its billing, and that billing was, “Both teams have one ace, then agita.”

Austin Jackson – 4-for-6, 3 runs yesterday and 8-for-14 in the series.  In related news, Vanity sang her big hit, Nasty Girl, at karaoke.

Max Scherzer – 2 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  If Max Scherzer sounds like a character that Michael Chabon created, then yesterday the Nazis won.

Doug Fister – Off to the DL with a costochondral strain.  That’s what you get when you eat too many $1.50 hot dogs at Costco.

Miguel Cabrera – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs and a homer.  On Saturday, 2 homers and 3 RBIs.  Now hitting .455, which coincidentally is his BAC.

Matt Cain – 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  The Giants three-headed ace (Lincainbum?, Caincecumgarner?) didn’t fare so well in Arizona as the Giants’ petition to play their next series in Arizona in the Grand Canyon.

Brandon Belt – 1-for-10 this weekend with 5 Ks, as he was out-hit by his bench replacement Brett Pill (1-for-1 with a homer).  I’m not making excuses, but I think for Passover Brandon Belt was replaced by his Jewish doppelganger.

Buster Posey – 2-for-4 with a homer and no broken ankles.

Aaron Hill – Homered twice on Saturday.  Love to see him combine his crazy homer year of 2009 and crazy steal year of 2011.  Imagine 36 homers and 21 steals from Aaron Hill.  Will take a whole lotta tryin’ to just get up that Hill.

Bryan Shaw – Got the save yesterday since Putz recorded saves in the first two games of the season.  Nothing to see here, the Diamondbacks just aren’t jerking around with their Putz.

Jay Bruce – Hit his 2nd and 3rd homers yesterday.  I’m Eskimo-kissing Jay Bruce on all of my fantasy teams.

Zack Cozart – 1-for-3 yesterday and hit a homer on Saturday as he bats .545.  You don’t want to know what I’m doing to Cozart on all my fantasy teams.

Heath Bell – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he joined every reliever in major league baseball and blew the save.  Why do I feel like 2012 is the year we all do Chinese fire drills on closers?

Chris Perez – Got the save yesterday after I got to the red light, ran around the car, grabbed Pestano and got back in the car.  I’m sure we’ll hit another red light by Wednesday.

Carlos Santana – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs with 2 homers.  I don’t own Carlos Santana anywhere, but as long as he’s not doing duets with Rob Thomas I’m happy.

Corey Hart – 3 HRs over the weekend.  Shame on those of you who didn’t get the memo that he does really well overcoming spring training injuries in even years.

Ryan Braun – Homered on Sunday.  The homer is under review because it was postmarked on Friday.

Fernando Rodney – 2 outs, 2 saves over the weekend.  First Farnsworth, now Rodney.  Joe Maddon is like the Crappy Reliever Whisperer.

B.J. Upton – Expected to return April 20th.  Just think, if the Rays were married to this then they’d have to a wait a lot longer for a B.J.

Carlos Pena – Hit his second homer of the weekend yesterday.  He’s the kind of player that hits 7 homers in 10 games, then 20 Ks in 5 games, so get in while the gettin’ in is good.

Jeremy Hellickson – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Pitched a superb game for the “Grey Says He Hates These Guys, Let’s Make Grey Look Wrong” team.

Mike Minor – 5 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Here’s me yesterday, “Hey, Minor’s through 3 innings with 5 Ks and only one run.  Finally, one of my pitchers is performing.  It’s about time.  I won’t look back at this game, so I don’t jinx it.”  That No-Look/No-Jinx worked out perfectly!  I will now stick my head in the oven.

Lucas Duda – Hit 2 homers on Saturday.  Oh, what a Duda day.

Jason Hammel – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks as he switched bodies with Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Yovani Gallardo.  Not cool, Jason Hammel, not cool at all.

Vance Worley – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks making his mom, Jo Anne, so proud and me, since he was, like, the only pitcher that I liked that did well this first weekend.  On a serious note, don’t throw out the baby with the fantasy team.  There’s only three games played for most teams.  You want your pitchers to come out and pitch well, but Bumgarner, for instance, had an ERA over 6 last April.  Gallardo’s ERA was also over 6 last April.  You can’t win your league in April, but you can lose it by overreacting.  Chillax is the portmanteau of the day.

Juan Nicasio – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Pitched a terrific game until Rex Brothers blew it for him.  Last time, I buy furniture from him.

Wilin Rosario – Homered in his first start of the year.  Can we get someone to Gillooly Ramon Hernandez?

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Triceps issue behind him, and now unto bigger and better injuries like shoulders and obliques!

Eric Hosmer – Homered in back-to-back games this weekend and had the always-delicious slam & legs on Easter Sunday.  Guessing Moustakas is waiting until next Sunday to do the same.

Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-3 with a homer.  Way to show up to the party 12 months late.

Lance Lynn – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Looking for someone that can come out of nowhere and be valuable?  Here ya go.

Jeff Samardzija – 8 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Someone already grabbed Lance Lynn, but you’d prefer a guy with a last name you can’t pronounce?  You’re in luck!

Matt Kemp – ESPN reported, Kemp homered on Sunday to extend his hitting streak to 16 games.  Huh?  Did the Dodgers and Padres play back-to-back-to-back quintupletheaders?

Dustin Moseley – To the DL with a strained right shoulder.  What an odd thing to find in your colander.

Chase Headley – 1-for-2, 4 RBIs and his 1st homer in Petco and equaling his Petco homer output from last year.  Chase “Doing Just Enough To Stay Rostered on Your Fantasy Teams” Headley.

Hector Santiago – With heat from the fantasy baseball community and Nolan Ryan, Robin Ventura finally relented and decided on Hector Santiago to close, saying Thornton will maintain his 8th inning role.  Not sure why it took so long for Ventura to say that.  It’s like the White Sox manager hat is The Mask.

As we mentioned earlier this month, we created an ‘expert’ league that follows the same rules as the Razzball Commenter League and will be included in the master standings.  Will the Expert League reign supreme (Iron Chef^TM) in competitive index or will several RCL leagues put the experts in their place?  We shall see…

Here are the participants in the first annual Razzball ‘Expert’ League (links if they posted a draft review):

Razzball – Grey Albright
Razzball – Rudy Gamble
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens
FanGraphs – Eno Sarris
Hardball Times – Jonathan Halket
MLBTradeRumors.com/RotoAuthority – Tim Dierkes
Mastersball – Ryan Carey
Rotowire – Dalton Del Don
SI.com – Eric Mack
Steamer Projections – Dash Davidson

Here’s a link to the entire Draft Recap:

Grey:

As mentioned in our 2nd podcast, ESPN screwed me for messing with them for the last five years.  Right before my 1st pick, my computer crashed.  Here’s me during the draft.  “Hey, I have the 7th pick.  Awesome.  I’m gonna have a 1st baseman.  I might even get Votto.  I wonder who that lady is watering her lawn across the street.  Maybe I’ll stand up carefully to make sure I don’t knock over my coffee and get a better look–NOOOOOO!  Crap, mother-effin’, son-of-a-motherless-goat!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Okay, it’s rebooting… I have a minute and thirty seconds… Reboot!  DAH!  I drafted Robinson Cano!”  And then that dictated just about all my other hitter picks.  Since I had Cano, I couldn’t grab Kinsler, didn’t want a shortstop and the only 1st baseman or 3rd baseman within the vicinity was Tex and I wasn’t drafting him with my 18th pick.  So I took Giancarlo.  Then I really felt like I needed to make sure I had some sorta corner man so I reached for Zimmerman.  Not feeling totally comfortable with Zimmerman as my 3rd baseman, I reached for Hosmer for my other corner.  Then I felt like if Zimmerman got hurt again, I should have another 3rd baseman, so I grabbed Aramis, then I realized later on that Aramis wasn’t a clean bill of health either so I grabbed Chisenhall.  Then I dropped Chisenhall when he was demoted and grabbed Smoak for the two game Japaning Day, then, when those games ended, I grabbed Eric Thames.

I may have 5 aces when it’s all said and done.  I wouldn’t even need Gio on this staff, but he fell so far down that I wasn’t going to let him go.  I’m not worried about saves, even if my closers are little iffy.  SAGNOF!  Since I had Cano and Hosmer, I took some guys that may be average drains, but should give steals and power.  Though, I do think average will be one of my biggest concerns.  In true Grey fashion (I love to pick up and drop players and talk about myself in third person), I’ve already made a few moves on pitching too.  Dropped Fuentes (right after Balfour became the closer) and grabbed Bourgeois.  Bourgeois is the kinda of guy that if he sneaks into a large playing role or if I switch him in only when he plays, he could get me 30 cheap steals.  SAGNOF!  I dropped Stauffer and grabbed Lidge when Storen was hurting (Clippard was drafted) and dropped Crain for Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a bit of a shizzshow, but, in some ways, I like to be able to juggle my last roster spots so I don’t care I wasted a pick on Chisenhall, Fuentes, etc.  Rudy gets a lot more tied to his drafts than I do.  In the end, I think I still have a solid team.  By the time you read this, I may have made three more pick-ups and drops.

Grey’s RCL Draft
Position	Player	Round/Pick
C	Geovany Soto	R23 Pick 271
1B	Eric Hosmer	R4 Pick 42
2B	Robinson Cano	R1 Pick 7
SS	Zack Cozart	R17 Pick 199
3B	Ryan Zimmerman	R3 Pick 31
OF	Giancarlo Stanton	R2 Pick 18
OF	Brett Gardner	R6 Pick 66
OF	Krispie Young	R7 Pick 79
OF	Alex Rios	R14 Pick 162
OF	Peter Bourjos	R19 Pick 223
1B/3B	Aramis Ramirez	R8 Pick 90
2B/SS	Aaron Hill	R16 Pick 186
UTIL	Lonnie Chisenhall	R24 Pick 282
SP	Madison Bumgarner	R5 Pick 55
SP	Mat Latos	R9 Pick 103
SP	Anibal Sanchez	R11 Pick 127
SP	Gio Gonzalez	R12 Pick 138
SP	Mike Minor	R15 Pick 175
SP	Jake Peavy	R20 Pick 234
RP	Jose Valverde	R10 Pick 114
RP	Huston Street	R13 Pick 151
RP	Matt Capps	R18 Pick 210
Bench RP	Brian Fuentes	R21 Pick 247
Bench RP	Jesse Crain	R22 Pick 258
Bench SP	Tim Stauffer	R25 Pick 295

Rudy:

At this point in the draft season, I’m starting to get predictable in my early round draft behavior.  I was really happy picking 10th with the confidence that either Joey Votto or (more likely) Adrian Gonzalez would fall to me and I wouldn’t have to worry about overpaying for a 1B later in the draft.  As luck should have it, Grey’s computer crashed and he auto-picked Robinson Cano vs. his preferred Joey Votto pick who came gift-wrapped to me at #10.   Longoria was an easy choice at #15 as I figured there would still be top SPs on the board by the time I picked next at #34.  The experts were more aggressive than I figured at drafting SPs however as Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lee, F-Her, and Lincecum were all off the board.  Luckily, I liked Greinke slightly more than F-Her and Lincecum.  But I also liked Jay Bruce for this pick and, in retrospect, probably should’ve gamed Greinke was the more likely of the two to make it me at pick #39.  Hunter Pence was the consolation prize.

I spread out my SP selections and seemed to have a lot of success nabbing K-friendly pitchers (Lester, Beachy, Morrow).  I specifically drafted Lewis and Nolasco in later rounds because of their solid WHIPs (which help balance out Morrow).  For the first time in years, I drafted the first closer off the board (Kimbrel – 6th round/63rd pick) as the value was too great given his obscene K-rate.  Marmol and Putz came at decent values at Rounds 11/12 and I was glad to be done with closers before a closer run occurred (10 closers went in the next 33 picks after Putz).

As for offense, I just drafted for value and was able to avoid inadvertently punting AVG or SBs.  I reached for Jose Altuve whom I think has 30 SB upside with solid AVG and, like several of my teams this year, got solid R/RBI value out of my other MI spots (Alexei Ramirez, Neil Walker).

All in all, this was about as good of a draft as I could’ve hoped for.  I don’t think my team has any major weaknesses and hopefully my team has good injury karma.  It’ll be interesting to see how well I do in this type of format (12 team, daily changes) – especially without Grey as co-manager

Rudy’s RCL Draft
Position	Player	Round/Pick
C	J.P. Arencibia	R23 Pick 274
1B	Joey Votto	R1 Pick 10
2B	Jose Altuve	R13 Pick 154
SS	Alexei Ramirez	R10 Pick 111
3B	Evan Longoria	R2 Pick 15
OF	Hunter Pence	R4 Pick 39
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	R7 Pick 82
OF	Drew Stubbs	R8 Pick 87
OF	Jeff Francoeur	R16 Pick 183
OF	Colby Rasmus	R18 Pick 207
1B/3B	Gaby Sanchez	R17 Pick 202
2B/SS	Neil Walker	R14 Pick 159
UTIL	J.D. Martinez	R20 Pick 231
SP	Zack Greinke	R3 Pick 34
SP	Jon Lester	R5 Pick 58
SP	Brandon Beachy	R9 Pick 106
SP	Brandon Morrow	R15 Pick 178
SP	Colby Lewis	R20 Pick 226
SP	Ricky Nolasco	R21 Pick 250
RP	Craig Kimbrel	R6 Pick 63
RP	Carlos Marmol	R11 Pick 130
RP	J.J. Putz	R12 Pick 135
Bench RP	Mike Adams	R22 Pick 255
Bench RP	David Hernandez	R24 Pick 279
Bench OF	Denard Span	R25 Pick 298

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

Between the two middle infield positions, I tend to draft a 2nd baseman early and punt shortstop.  This happens for a few reasons.  1) 2nd base has more talent.  That’s right, I draft the deeper position earlier.  Same reason I punt catchers and try to get a 1st baseman early.  If a position is deep, a lot of your leaguemates are going to have one of the top guys.  You don’t want to be one of the 3 or 4 teams without a top guy.  2) There’s less difference between a middle-tiered shortstop and a bottom-tiered one.  (Same could be said of catchers.  We have a theme!  Or is it a genre?  No, it’s a theme!) 3) Shortstops tend to give value with the steal.  You can find cheap steals later.  Most of the 2nd basemen on this list are going after the top 150 in your 2012 fantasy drafts.  This is a supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen of 2012 fantasy baseball. These are 2nd basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Jason Kipnis – I’ll round some numbers off for you like they were matzoh balls.  15 homers and 15 steals.  That’s his ceiling.  If Kipnis reaches them then mazel tov!  Is he worth a flyer, fo’ diggity.  Just keep in mind Kipnis doesn’t have huge power or speed or schmaltz.

Danny Espinosa – Yeah, I don’t know why he’s a sleeper.  Oh, I know why!  Cause he’s being drafted around 150 overall.  A guy that is going to be 25 years old who just went 21/17 is that bad?  I realize that he hit .236, but you need to not worry about that.  This is a guy that went 18/29 in High-A, 18/20 in Double-A and 21/17 in the majors.  Yeah, he’s worth more than a 150th pick at 2nd base.  Get your shizz together!

Jose Altuve – I worry that every Astros is gonna be a beyotchabatukis, but I think Altuve has some giddy in his step.  Really, the sleepers that I worry most about are the ones that won’t reach 20 for steals or homers.  Guys that can steal 20+ bags or hit 20+ homers can at least be counted on for those stats and the rest is cheese and gravy.  Disco fries!

Jemile Weeks – I compared him favorably in the top 20 2nd basemen post to Luis Castillo.  I stand by that.  Assuming you can stand by something amorphous like a comparison.

Aaron Hill – Wow, he’s crazy low in drafts.  Like, low low.  Like in the 300′s overall low.  Like your knees are double-jointed and you’re limboing low.  Like you’re secretly sleeping with your friend’s sister and telling your friend about her as if she’s someone else and your friend is unknowingly giving you ideas of what to do with his own sister in bed low.  Like– Okay, you get the picture.

Gordon Beckham – Yeah, I’m super thrilled he’s being drafted so low that I might end up with him on a team.  Maybe I can do the draft where I pick Beckham while I’m at the dentist to make it a really pleasurable experience.

Kelly Johnson – I have no idea what’s going on with the drafting of 2nd basemen.  Hill and Johnson should not be in the 300′s.  Johnson went 21/16 just LAST YEAR (caps for emphasis, not for aesthetics.)  I realize he hit .222, but he’s a career .260 hitter and he just hit .284 in 2010.  He’s really worse than Kipnis?  Rhetorical!

Johnny Giavotella – Right now, he’s the Royal plugged into the two hole, which sounds like the tagline for a movie about Richard the Lionheart that’s portrayed by Richard Simmons.  In 46 games last year, Giamortadella had 5 steals in 46 games but was caught twice.  As we know from last year, the Royals stealing percentage is about as successful as Madoff’s and they continue to be all klepto-like.  If Giamortadella wants, he could steal 30 bases and get caught 20 times and the Royals will shrug.  Also, in Triple-A, Giavotella hit 9 homers so he’s got some small pop in his little Guido body.  I’ll give him the 2012 projections of 85/8/45/.285/22.  Not bad, paisan.

In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players! Thanks for reading!

Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.